In the main event, two of UFC’s middleweight contenders, No. 10 ranked Brendan Allen (22-5) and No. 13 Paul Craig (17-6), are set to collide in a battle that promises to deliver a mix of strategy, skill, and raw power.

Allen, stepping into his first UFC main event, is riding a wave of momentum with five consecutive wins under his belt. Meanwhile, Craig, making his second appearance in the middleweight category, looks to build on the success of his divisional debut victory over André Muniz.

Read on as we dive deep into the latest betting odds, provide a detailed breakdown of the fight, and offer a prediction along with the best bet and pick for this thrilling matchup.

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Allen vs Craig betting odds

Brendan Allen’s a hefty betting favorite but this wasn’t always the case leading up to the UFC Fight Night 232 main event. Initial odds had Allen at closer to -275 with Craig around +200 but they’ve since changed dramatically as it seems money continues to come in on Allen.

• Brendan Allen: -450 (MyBookie)
• Paul Craig: +340 (BetUS)

Allen vs Craig breakdown

I’ve been all-in on Brendan “All In” Allen since his submission win over Kevin Holland, another fighter I’ve backed for years, in his UFC debut. I’ve been Allen in each of his 12 UFC fights and have cashed a lot of tickets thanks to his 10-2 UFC record.

What drew me to Allen is his knowledge of what he does well, his determination to impose his game plan, but also his willingness to make adjustments if an easier path to victory presents itself. All too often, fighters seem to predetermine how they plan to win a fight and continue to force that game plan in the cage even if it’s not working. Allen is not the best striker, grappler, or submission artist in the division. But, he can succeed in all facets of MMA and will often let the fight come to him, using his variety of skills to adjust mid-fight, even mid-round, depending on his opponent.

Allen is an offensively sound striker who uses an intelligent jab and knowledge of angles to cut opponents off and trap them against the cage. From there, Allen’s speciality is finding a safe way into the clinch where his natural strength and fundamental grappling allow him to pin opponents against the cage and land dirty boxing shots in tight. His goal is to drag opponents down from the clinch and either get on top to land heavy elbows or force his opponent to turn over and expose their back. If he gets an opening to get the back, Allen impressively takes the opening, gets his hooks in, and will quickly find the neck. 4 of his last 5 wins have come via rear naked choke following the above game plan. Because Allen’s striking defense is a bit lackluster and his movement is sometimes a touch slow, he tends to struggle against fighters with stout takedown defense and/or pressure-heavy striking. If an opponent can be the one who pushes “All-in” back and force Allen to be the nail in the fight, he struggles to get his game going.

Paul “Bearjew” Craig, on paper, should not be as good as he is. His striking offense is plodding and sloppy. His striking defense is a liability. His wrestling is non-existent. And most of his submission wins have come when he’s on his back and Craig comes from behind for the win. But, eventually, we just have to recognize that this guy, regardless of how he wins, continues to win. Craig is 9-6 in the UFC but is 5-2 since 2020 which includes wins over the ex-champion, Hill, and 2 other ranked or previously ranked fighters. Its ugly, its sloppy, and it often comes as a surprise; but, since 2020, Craig often finds ways to win. His whole game plan centers around baiting his opponent to enter his guard where he then tries to survive long enough for his opponent to make a mistake. His most common submission win is the triangle, which often comes as an opponent postures up in his guard to try and land fight ending ground and pound. Just as an opponent postures up to seemingly end the fight, that’s when Craig secures in his own finish. This survive and thrive style shouldn’t be as successful as it is but Craig has mastered it over the years. He knows his strengths and has found a way to make his weaknesses work for him.

Allen vs Craig prediction

While handicapping a fight comes down to how the skills and styles of the fighters match up, it is also important to consider the lines and the value within those lines. This line is out of hand.

In Allen’s last 3 fights- against lower ranked or unranked opponents- he was a -230, +190, and +100 respectively. Now, against the highest ranked and, arguably, toughest competitor of his career, Allen’s line has ballooned up to a -430. Now, the skill and style matchup in this fight does favor Allen. He is the pointedly better striker, is intelligent and dangerous on the mat, and has shown fight after fight that he continues to grow.

Meanwhile, Craig is an awkward and hittable striker, an excellent submission artist but poor wrestler, and often needs to capitalize on a mistake to win. All skill and style signs point to Allen staying smart and finding Craig’s chin. However, -430 is a steep price to pay.

This comes down to your philosophy as a better. Are you someone who decides who you think will win and then hunts for value through money lines, props, and parlay? Or are you someone who prefers to find value in incorrect or mispriced odds? I’m the former, I prefer to trust my scouting of fighters first and find value second. But, I do not blame anyone whose style is the latter and wants to take the undeniable value in Craig, likely Craig by submission. I, however, will back Allen because I think he’s simply the better fighter with more ways to win.

Next comes finding value. 5 of 6 of Craig’s losses have come via finish and 4 by knockout. But, Allen hasn’t secured a knockout since 2020 and that is his only one in the UFC. Therefore, I handicap Allen getting the finish and the type of finish- knockout or submission- to be near even in terms of probability.

So, my bet will be Allen by submission (+225) rather than Allen by knockout (+125) because the odds are better and I think either outcome is about as likely as the other.

Best Bet: Allen to win by submission (+225)

The post Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt, 28, will, in turn, make his 7th walk into the UFC octagon. He holds a 4-2 record also with three finish wins.

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Betting Odds

Hooper is a sizeable favorite over Leavitt.

• Chase Hooper: -220 (MyBookie)
• Jordan Leavitt: +170 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

There are certain fighters with the reputation of an elite skill because of outside the UFC success; but, when they get into the UFC, that skill isn’t as elite as advertised or the fighters don’t have the other skills necessary to implement it. Chase Hooper has the reputation of high-level grappling and a dangerous submission game, yet, he only has one submission win and all four of his wins have come against fighters no longer on the UFC roster.

The primary indicator for Hooper’s unrealized potential is his wrestling. He only averages 1.4 takedowns a fight at a middling 22% clip. Because he is often incapable of getting the fight to the mat, Hooper is unable to showcase his submission skills. And, in the rare occasions where he has been in a position to implement his reputationally excellent submission offense, Hooper has struggled to hold position long enough to secure the submission.

Instead, what typically happens in Hooper fights is a sloppy, dirty, and gritty clinch fight against the cage where Hooper’s knowledge of grappling position gives him an edge but his undeveloped striking and strength create issues. It is important to emphasize that Hooper is only 24 and should continue to improve significantly fight after fight. Additionally, he should continue to grow into his body and increase his strength. But, so far in his career, Hooper’s fights go one of two ways.

If he is fighting a non-UFC caliber opponent unable to deal with Hooper’s persistent clinch game, Hooper can use cardio, volume, and some grappling to win. However, if an opponent has been UFC-caliber capable of keeping Hooper off the cage, even with a basic jab or leg kick, then Hooper’s lack of striking keeps him from find much if any success.

Most concerningly, though, is Hooper’s lack of defense and his dependency on his chin to absorb shots. His most recent loss was finally via knockout. After years of taking damage without going down, Hooper’s chin finally gave out. Hooper is young, growing, and supposedly has a high level grappling game, but the jury is still out on whether “The Dream” has the full MMA skillset to consistently win at the UFC level.

A bit of a cult-hero because of his…unique…personality and celebration, Leavitt has found his way to put his name on the radar of the UFC brass despite also only 1 win over a fighter currently on the UFC roster. Leavitt is primarily a wrestler who uses awkwardly timed striking and sound defense to close distance where he can engage in the clinch against the cage. His striking offense is basic and slow but varied.

He’s a southpaw striker who is capable of throwing and often landing boxing combinations and a solid back kick. However, his striking output is low; and, while his feints help him close distance, his ability to execute in the pocket is minimal. Instead, Leavitt will typically feint forward, look to trap his opponent, and then clinch against the cage. He too wants to get the fight to the mat but has minimal wrestling to do so.

Leavitt averages 2.3 takedown attempts per fight at at 26% success rate. Leavitt’s main goal is to fight with enough of an off-beat style that he can put his opponent into an unfamiliar position, force them to make a mistake, and then capitalize on said mistake. He has fairly high fight IQ, knowing what he does well, but doesn’t always have the requisite skills to execute once he gets the position he wants. Instead, Leavitt’s success most commonly comes through forcing mistakes while he struggles if opponents are cautious enough to avoid them.

Fight Prediction

Both of these fighters are fun because of their out-of-the-cage personalities and unknown performances in the cage. People like betting on the potential of a fighter because, if it clicks, it’s impressive and satisfying to be able to say, “I called it.” We’ve been waiting for four years for Hooper to realize his potential and it’s only happened once in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Leavitt is someone the public tends to fade because he doesn’t often put a stamp on his fights and his style is awkward. However, he often finds ways to win. Styles make fights and Hooper may finally get to dance with a willing grappling partner; but, even in that instance, I don’t like his lack of strength against Leavitt.

Typically, I don’t rush to the window to bet either of these fighters but I love the odds in this one. Given the inconsistency in both fighters and that, of their combined 8 UFC wins, only one is over a fighter on the UFC roster, I handicapped this fight near a pick’em. Therefore, I’ll take a dog shot at +200 in a fight that I expect to be near even.

Best Bet: Leavitt to win (+170 at BetUS)

The post Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews, 29, has ping-ponged wins and losses in his last five fights. His three recent wins include two finishes while his losses are via decision and submission.

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Betting Odds

Morales opened around a -250 but has ballooned up to north of -300 in most books. A few -290s are still out there.

• Michael Morales: -290 (BetUS)
• Jake Matthews: +240 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As with most prospects who have a top 5 ranking as a realistic possibility in their future, each fight Morales takes is designed to test a new aspect of his game. His debut was meant to see how the young kid could handle a grown man who was willing to be the aggressor.

Morales showcased his excellent and sniper-like counter striking; and, seemingly, effortlessly knocked his opponent out with a beautiful combination. Then, in his next fight, Morales was arguably given a step down in competition level but was challenged with a tricky grappler who would test Morales’ ability to stay composed and test his takedown defense.

While he did surrender 1 takedown and some control time, Morales’ athleticism, fundamental wrestling, and lateral movement were on full display. He fought intelligently- an important attribute for such a young fighter- stayed within his game plan, and eventually found the 3rd round knockout. Then, most recently, Morales’ grit, cardio, and durability were designed to be tested.

While he didn’t secure the finish in this fight, Morales showcased his jab, ability to be both the hammer and nail, and his cardio en route to a decision win. In all 3 fights, a different set of skills were needed for victory and Morales possessed the necessary arsenal each time.

Matthews, who was once like Morales and considered the future of the division, has faulted as of late. His successful and difficult to deal with combination of wrestle boxing has proved more challenging to implement against the nearly ranked level of opponents he’s recently lost to.

At his best, Matthews is able to weaponize cardio with a well-rounded game that can exploit the weakness or gap of an opponent. However, at his worst, Matthews can be overaggressive and press in the cage rather than letting his game flow. This results in him being hittable on the feet and sloppy on the mat. His striking- a more boxing focused style with a high guard- is rooted in volume, pressure, accuracy, and timing. Matthews doesn’t carry overly impactful power but his damage through attrition approach can result in finishes.

However, if he’s off his game, Matthews’ attempt to land with volume can result in him moving linearly into counter shots over and over as he attempts to strike his way through adversity. “The Celtic Kid’s” wrestling is similar. When he picks his spots well, Matthews has well-timed shots that he tends to finish regularly.

His wrestling, at this point in his career, is most advantageous at the end of close rounds where a takedown sways the judges in his favor. But, if he gets tunnel vision and continues to try and wrestle when the opportunity isn’t available, Matthews can get stuffed and clipped or even reverse. In short, Matthews is well-rounded and difficult to game plan for because he has a complete MMA skillset. However he can get in his own way at times and force his way into bad spots.

Fight Prediction

I’ve been a believer in Morales since he joined the UFC and I’m believing in him again here. It’s possible that we get a Dalby/Bonfim type of fight if Matthews can push such an extreme pace that Morales gasses himself out. However, everything Morales’ has shown in the octagon is that his intangibles and demeanor are those of a much older and more experienced fighter.

That is to say, Morales’s fight IQ, composure, and well-rounded skillset should allow him to avoid an ill-advised fire fight. Instead, I expect Morales to fight similarly to how he did against Fugitt: careful but tactful. Look for Matthews to push a pace early but Morales to use footwork, an intelligent jab, and well-timed counters to piece Matthews up. While I expect a decision, a late finish wouldn’t surprise me either. I prefer Morales in parlays, but like him by decision as a straight play.

Best Bet: Morales by decision (+250)

The post Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Aspinall is 6-1 with six finishes, all but one of which came in the first round. Meanwhile, Pavlovich is also 6-1 with all six wins coming in the first round. Both men are exceptionally talented and dangerous; this should be a great one!

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich betting odds

Aspinall briefly opened as the underdog but was quickly flipped to the favorite.

• Tom Aspinall: -120 (BetUS)
• Sergei Pavlovich: -110 (BetUS)

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich breakdown

Aspinall might just be the next British UFC champion. Much like Bisping, Aspinall will have to overcome the obstacles a short-notice opportunity presents. But, listening to his interviews and seeing what he’s done so far in the UFC, even after a gruesome leg injury, there is no reason to doubt the #4 heavyweight on the roster. He should be prepared to showcase the best version of himself on Saturday night.

That version of Aspinall is a technically sound, athletically gifted, and dangerously powerful boxer who uses a mix of footwork, precise combinations, and raw power to end fights and end them quickly. Also, being one of the “new breeds” of MMA heavyweights, Aspinall isn’t just a power puncher. He has a full arsenal of weapons and skills that he can turn to at any point in the fight. He is quick, athletic, light footed, a gifted wrestler, and a slick submission practitioner. No matter where the fight goes, Aspinall has the experience, technical fundamentals, and natural gifts to dominate.

Some have coined him “Russian Francis” because, much like Ngannou, the power that Pavlovich has in the octagon is unlike the power anyone else has. It’s as simple as that. The damage this man can do when wearing 4oz gloves is truly special and unmatched. He lost his UFC debut but rebounded with 6 straight 1st round finishes and hasn’t really been in any significant danger since his loss.

Pavlovich has enormous arms, both in terms of length and size, which he uses to keep opponents at bay while he looks to unload the perfect shot and end the fight quickly. While he can have lower volume at times, rarely using feints or jabs to set up his strikes, when he does go, Pavlovich will throw in combinations, all of the strikes coming toward his opponent with devastating power. If even one lands, it’s lights out.

Aspinall vs Pavlovich prediction

I am as much a fan of the UFC as I am a handicapper; so, full disclosure, Aspinall is my favorite fighter on the roster, I’ve believed since his first fight that he will be a champion, and I will be rooting for him relentlessly Saturday night. With that qualifier out of the way, let’s dig into the matchup.

Typically, in a short notice pick’em fight with heavier opponents, I tend to side on the more powerful striker because he has less he needs to prepare for and the short notice nature limits the preparation of the technician. That normally has me siding with Pavlovich who has supernovas in his gloves and doesn’t have as diverse of a game that he needs to strategize around for this fight. Moreover, Pavlovich was training to be the backup for the original Jones v Stipe fight. This implies that he has been in a training camp for at least 6 weeks and should be in prime shape.

Conversely, Aspinall was not prepping for this fight; and, even if he was training to stay in shape, was not in a full training camp until only 2.5 weeks before the fight. Again, edge to Pavlovich. But, when it comes to the stylistic matchup between these two fighters, I side with Aspinall. He is the faster and far more technical striker. He is more dynamic on the feet and in MMA, able to mix in wrestling and grappling. He has a cracking leg kick while Pavlovich’s lead leg is vulnerable and exposed. And, most importantly, because Pavlovich loads up for his power shots, Aspinall should have ample opportunities to land his impressive, quick, and powerful counter shots on the open chin of Pavlovich.

While Aspinall has been hittable early in fights but I expect his fight IQ and preparation, even limited, to keep him safe for the first few minutes as Pavlovich looks for another quick finish. Then, near the end of round 1, after Aspinall showcases why footwork and technique can beat raw power, I’m anticipating Aspinall to find the off switch, countering and finishing Pavlovich in electrifying fashion.

And, if things really do get too dicey for the Englishman, he can always turn to his wrestling to make this a mixed martial arts fight compared to the stand up striking exchange that we’re all excited to see. In any case, I like Aspinall to take the belt to England.

Best Bet: Aspinall to win (-120 at BetUS)

The post Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Dennis “The Great” Buzukja, 26, took two trips to the hardest job interview in the world but did not earn a contract with either effort. He stepped on short notice in August to finally get a shot in the big dance and dropped a decision.

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Emmers vs Buzukja odds

Emmers opened north of a -300 favorite but was quickly bet down to his current number.

• Jamall Emmers: -280 (BetUS)
• Dennis Buzukja: +225 (BetUS)

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Emmers vs Buzukja breakdown

Emmers has struggled to find his identity in the UFC. He is a long and rangy striker with some offensive grappling chops; but, as shown through two split decision losses, struggles to pull away with any clarity in his fights. He pushes a respectable pace, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.7. However, even his pace is inconsistent.

In some fights, Emmers will push forward behind a long jab and nice calf kick as he uses his height and reach advantage to force an opponent to rush into the pocket where Emmers’ hand speed can land a snappy counter on the exposed and frustrated opponent. Then, in other fights, Emmers will stand flat-footed and get backed into the cage, looking again for those counter combinations but gets pieced up in the meantime.

His wrestling is much of the same. In several of his fights, Emmers has been able to land takedowns and hold his opponents down for north of 4 minutes. However, he’s only won 2 of those fights. Part of that is because Emmers doesn’t do much once he gets the takedown or he gasses himself out with his shots and absorbs damage on the feet as a result. The bottom line for “Prettyboy” is that he has the complete MMA skillset to be a solid fighter, but his game plan or fight IQ consistently get in the way of his success.

Buzukja is an easy guy to root for and should have a big crowd cheering for him on Saturday. He comes from Longo’s gym in New York and UFC 295 is taking place at the Garden. Beyond the hometown crowd he’ll have cheering, Buzukja is an all-action fighter who pushes a pace early and wants to throw down for a fight-filled fifteen minutes or until someone drops.

His pressure, power, and persistence have resulted in a bit of a cult following but did not result in him getting a shot in the UFC until recently. That is because, despite his fan-friendly style, Buzukja can be his own worst enemy in the cage sometimes. Like a horse with blinders, Buzukja can get tunnel vision and head hunt the finish rather than taking the path of least resistance to win a round.

He fights with aggression and mixes in calf and front kicks well with his above average in the pocket boxing. His cardio, chin, and forward pressure give a lot of opponents fitz. But, those who are capable of sniping the forward moving Buzukja with well-timed counters, fluid footwork, and patient strikes have given the NY native problems.

In these fights, where Buzukja is caught chasing, he seems to get frustrated and try even harder to find the off-switch. That tunnel vision only makes it easier for technicians to stick’n move en route to a decision win. However, when he’s composed, Buzukja’s mix of powerful boxing, well-incorporated kicks, strong takedown defense, and heart make him a fun fighter to watch and a difficult one to face.

Emmers vs Buzukja prediction

Simply put, I feel the odds on this fight are too wide. Emmers is the more experienced and likely more skilled mixed martial artist; but, he shouldn’t warrant a -280 price tag. Both of these fights have positive skills; but, also and more importantly, concerning gaps. Buzukja will likely be the aggressor in this fight and carry more power.

So, if he can find his range, I expect him to land the higher volume and the more damaging shots. Conversely, if Emmers fights intelligently behind his jab and with footwork, he should be able to stick’n move for 15 minutes, forcing Buzukja to chase and overswing, hitting air more often than not. Additionally, while both men struggle from their backs, both also have some offensive wrestling chops.

However, neither typically can land reliable takedowns nor hold opponents for long periods of time. This fight, to me, comes down to Emmers’ fight IQ- something that has been inconsistent in the UFC- and Buzukja’s ability to stay composed.

Given the wide odds, I’ll be happy to play Buzukja to win and sprinkle a little on him by knockout when those odds come out. I like Buzukja’s persistent volume, pressure, and heavier shots to win a close decision or even get the hometown crowd started with an upset KO.

Best Bet: Buzukja to win (+225 at BetUS)

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The post Jamall Emmers vs Dennis Buzukja prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Alessandro “Nono” Costa, 27, was also given a shot at a ranked opponent in his debut but lost via 3rd round TKO to the now #3 ranked flyweight on the roster. He rebounded nicely six months later with a knockout finish of his own.

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Erceg vs Costa betting odds

Erceg’s odds have steadily grown throughout the week and are larger in some other books. So, if you plan to bet him, bet him soon to get the best of the number.

• Steve Erceg: -165 (BetUS)
• Alessandro Costa: +140 (BetUS)

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Erceg vs Costa fight breakdown

Erceg surprised many, myself included, with how well he showed on the feet against a ranked UFC veteran known for his ability to push a pace and land cleanly. Erceg, however, outpaced his opponent and seemed to land the more damaging shots.

Considering Erceg’s strength typically lie in the wrestling and grappling department, his ability to hang with and find success against a ranked caliber striker demonstrate that “Astro Boy” belongs on a list with a number next to his name. While his striking did impress, specifically the dynamic attacks and technical snap on his combinations, his striking consistency still left a bit to be desired.

Wrestling, grappling, and a strong submission game, though, is what brought Erceg into the UFC. He struggled to implement this game plan against a highly mobile and defensively sound wrestler early; but, in round three, the fans were able to see just how effective Erceg can be on top. He landed three takedowns in the final round of his fight and immediately looked to transition to the back for his patented rear-naked choke. Although a small series of events in only one fight, Erceg’s round three grappling display is a prime example of how he prefers to fight.

He typically is willing to stand on the feet, at range, using his length to chop the calf and corner an opponent near the cage. Then, when he sees an opening on the hips, he’ll shoot a takedown or clinch up and look for a body lock takedown. In either case, Erceg’s goal is not to lay and pray for long periods of control time, rather, his goal is to get the fight down and get to the back as quickly as possible. He transitions smoothly on the mat, uses his length as leverage to find the back, and sinks in hooks well while looking for the choke. His offensive mindset while grappling has resulted in several finishes; but also, has resulted in opponents being able to get back to their feet.

Costa is a stocky, strong, and explosive striker who has several fights of experience being the shorter fighter. Standing only at 5’3, Costa can sometimes struggle to get into his range. But, when he does, he lands with pop, fast and explosive combinations, and and overhand right that can shut the lights out. He is cautious, though, when looking to enter the pocket.

Costa will, intelligently, use feints, footwork, and a calf kick to bait his opponent into trying to counter. Then, Costa can block or evade the baited counter and slip into boxing range. Once there, his speed and precision are often an advantage over his opponent. Costa’s style can result in longer bouts of inactivity, as he looks for a way into the pocket, but also helps him maintain a safe distance and defend shots from his opponent.

Costa’s x-factor in this fight is his defensive grappling. He has an accredited grappling and jiu-jitsu background but primarily uses his skills and experience in those arenas to keep the fight standing rather than as offensive weapons. He’ll have to overcome a reach advantage and an opponent who wants the fight on the mat, but that shouldn’t be a new obstacle for Costa who has dealt with both for most of his career.

Erceg vs Costa prediction and pick

Erceg is the more popular; and, likely, more promising prospect. He has a uniquely big frame for the division, a well-rounded game while still maintaining a trump card in some fights with his grappling skills, and the UFC believes in him. However, Costa is no easy out. In fact, Costa’s game plan of in the pocket boxing and stout takedown defense should test both of Erceg’s possible weak spots.

While I respect Costa’s game and wouldn’t be shocked with a decision win for “Nono” on the back of persistence and dirty boxing, I like Erceg here. He will have more opportunities to finish the fight, both at range as Costa tries to close distance and on the mat if Costa can stuff takedowns for 15 minutes.

Moreover, Erceg just proved he can handle a shorter striker who uses his footwork, speed, and experience to win fights in David Dvorak. I expect it to be a fun scrap but will happily take the favorite at any odds south of -180 in this fight.

Best Bet: Erceg to win (-165 at BetUS)

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The post Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Nicolas “Danish Dynamite” Dalby, 38, is quietly on a three-fight winning streak after dropping a decision in 2021. Overall, the tenured UFC veteran is 6-3-1, with all nine fights going the distance.

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Betting Odds

Gabriel Bonfim is set to enter UFC Fight Night 231 as a significant betting favorite with odds of -625.

• Gabriel Bonfim: -625 (BetUS)
• Nicolas Dalby: +425 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Bonfim is an electric prospect who has done nothing but further ignite the excitement around his potential. He is a predatorial fighter. By that I mean that he takes his time to dismantle his opponents but does so effectively and efficiently by exploiting the first opening he creates for a quick finish. A lot of fighters with a career full of 1st round finishes are blitz style fighters whose whole game plan is to implement extreme pressure and aggression early to overwhelm. Those fighters struggle if an opponent can survive and push the fight into rounds 2 or 3. Bonfim, on the other hand, is not a blitz fighter and he doesn’t rush. He fights with a stiff jab and impressive hand speed in his combinations. He rarely throws one strike at a time and often works the body and head during the same combination. His strikes are often well-timed and well-placed while his vision and footwork allow him to exit the pocket after a combination or continue to push forward safely if his opponent is dazed. His goal is to push an opponent backward, trap them against the cage, and then tee off while they’re vulnerable. But, even when teeing off on an opponent, Bonfim strikes with strategy and a defensive awareness that keeps him safe. Then, once he hurts his opponent, or gets them to shell up, he’ll drag his opponent down and look to take the back. Once he gets his hooks in, it’s just a matter of time before the jiu-jitsu ace racks up another submission win.

Dalby is a grizzled veteran who uses cardio, lateral movement, and a complete MMA skillset to drag opponents into deep waters and beat them with persistence and grit. He is a strong offensive and defensive wrestler; but, given his age, can struggle to hold opponents down once he’s on top. He has an excellent chin and defensive awareness, often through lateral movement which allows him to exit danger before he really gets rocked. But, most importantly, Dalby has a high fight IQ and often takes the path of least resistance in a fight. He can strike patiently with counters or strike aggressively with combinations; he can clinch and hold position against opponents with poor cardio; and he can out grapple pure strikers while out striking pure grapplers. Dalby’s issues, at this stage in his career, are that well-rounded fighters who have a danger component to their game can beat him because he rarely is the one dealing out the damage. While he can survive and take the fight into deep waters, Dalby struggles to put a true stamp on any round and hasn’t gotten a finish since 2019, before he was even in the UFC.

Prediction

I expect this fight to mirror Pimblett v Gordon. In both cases. In his home country, we have a highly touted prospect who has been running through the competition with flashy first round finishes against a tested UFC veteran known for being a jack of all trades but master of none who uses cardio and toughness to pull opponents into deep water. Pimblett’s cardio, grit, and mental toughness were all tested, a test he arguably didn’t pass. I expect the same attributes of Bonfim to be tested on Saturday. However, unlike the British Bob Cut, I expect Bonfim to handle the test with confidence and clarity. While Bonfim hasn’t yet proven he can survive and thrive in deep waters, his predatorial style of picking an opponent apart without rushing and then pouncing on a hurt foe for the finish is a strong strategy that is replicable for a full fight. While Dalby is a dog who will likely push Bonfim into the later stages of the fight and have moments of success, I fully expect Bonfim to have his hand raised at the end. My favorite bet is a more unique play, a same game parlay. Because I expect Bonfim to win and Dalby to push it outside of the first round, I like playing Bonfim (-500) and o1.5 rounds (-190).

Best Bet: Bonfim & o1.5 rounds (-120)

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The post Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Armen “Superman” Petrosyan, 32, is 3-1 in the UFC since earning a contract through a first-round knockout on DWCS in 2021. All four of his UFC fights have gone the distance.

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Betting Odds

The odds for this one have flipped back and forth all week and are currently settled on a pick’em.

• Rodolfo Vieira: -110 (BetUS)
• Armen Petrosyan: -110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Vieira is one of the most decorated and accredited jiu-jitsu practitioners to join the UFC. His nickname, “The Black Belt Hunter,” is less arrogant than it is accurate. If he gets into a scramble or lands on top of his opponent, his immense strength, fluidity, grappling knowledge, and high-level experience all typically translate to submission victory. Early in his UFC tenure, Vieira ran through a low level of competition without much of his game testes beyond his grappling.

However, when he ran into a fighter who pushed Vieira into deeper water and tested his full MMA skillset, the hunter became the hunted and Vieira was the one who ended up being submitted. This surprise illuminated two key gaps in the Brazilian’s game: his gas tank and his wrestling. Since then, Vieira’s gas tank has improved to allow him to shoot multiple takedowns in a fight: 7 attempts last time and 20 attempts the fight prior. However, his wrestling skill has left a lot to be desired, only landing 26% of his shots and going 1 for his last 27.

Petrosyan has been an underdog in all but one of his UFC fights, not counting this fight that currently sits at pick’em. His underdog trend speaks to both his style and his opponents. Petrosyan has fought and beat a true UFC veteran in Robo Cop and a true up-and-coming prospect in CDL. He’s also fought and lost to another surging prospect, also on this card, in Borralho.

In his short career, Petrosyan has been tossed among the wolves and proven he can survive, even thrive. His style also impacts his betting lines. Petrosyan is a kickboxer through and through. His kicking game is fast, dynamic, and powerful. However, the rest of his game relies on instinct, athleticism, and a willingness to take risks. While striking in the pocket, Petrosyan’s boxing is basic but his ability to land consistently because of his speed and athleticism helps him make up for any technical gaps.

The same is true with his grappling. Petrosyan scrambles with enthusiasm because if the fight hits the mat, he is often in trouble of being controlled. That enthusiasm and explosiveness, though, has resulted in him being more challenging to takedown than many expected.

Prediction

With a clash of styles this extreme, this fight boils down to whether or not Vieira can get the takedown. Vieira has world-class BJJ, while Petrosyan’s ground game is embryonic. However, given Vieira’s struggles with wrestling and Petrosyan’s basic but effective scrambling, this fight could be a cruise-control-like sparring session for “Superman.”

On paper, I would hammer the Petrosyan line. I’ve been impressed with his lateral movement and athletic takedown defense; and, while his striking has been less powerful than advertised, it’s still miles beyond Vieira. However, just like a heavyweight with a one-punch knockout edge, if Petrosyan makes a single mistake, he could get finished soon after. Fortunately, a hedge opportunity presents itself.

Vieira’s most likely, or possibly only, chance to win is via submission. Currently, his submission odds are sitting at +200, while Petrosyan just to win is at even money. My official pick is Petrosyan to win at -110, but a small sprinkle on Vieira by sub is a comforting hedge.

Pick: Petrosyan to win (-110 at BetUS)

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Despite being nearly a decade younger and only joining the UFC this year, Sedriques “The Reaper” Dumas holds the same 1-1 record as his opponent. Dumas was finished in his debut but rebounded with a decision win during his next fight.

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Betting Odds

Dumas’ line has been steamed significantly throughout the week, growing from -166 to -238.

• Sedriques Dumas: -238 (BetUS)
• Abu Azaitar: +195 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Azaitar is a unique fighter both in and outside of the cage. Despite nearing an age that typically results in retirement, Azaitar has been incredibly inactive. Likewise, in the cage, despite often having the edge in power and aggression, Azaitar has found more success, recently, as a passive counterstriker and clinch fighter. I suspect both oddities are his responses to events out of his control.

In the cage, specifically, Azaitar has historically preferred to fight like a bulldozer, blitzing forward quickly for emphatic but sloppy finishes. However, more recently, his opponents have been defensively sound and skilled enough to avoid his basic barrage striking and force Azaitar into deeper waters. What has been unexpected, though, is Azaitar’s success in these fights. He used to throw haymakers and windmill punches until someone drops.

However, since being forced to fight later in fights, he’s relied more on clinching against the cage. He still looks to pressure and overwhelm opponents in the first round; but, given his linear and basic striking, is often countered and clipped. Then, he responsively clinches, gathers his faculties, and relies on his natural strength advantage to hold opponents against the cage while landing plentiful but minimally damaging strikes.

Dumas is a naturally gifted fighter but is still green compared to many of his UFC counterparts. On the feet, Dumas is a long, varied, and smooth striker who naturally carries power and can land damaging blows without loading up on his shots. He uses his length well to keep opponents at bay while also landing at the end of his punches, where the most impact can happen.

He tends to get into trouble on the feet when he starts pressing forward too quickly or faces an opponent willing to bring the fight to him. When Dumas is baited, or even initiates, a brawl style fight, his length and easy power advantages quickly dissolve into disadvantages in the clinch, pocket boxing, and defensive wrestling. Basically, if an opponent can close distance quickly, Dumas can get bullied against the cage, in the pocket, or on the mat.

He does have a sneaky submission game that he can turn to when defending positions; but, he struggles to get back to his feet when an opponent is on top. More often, Dumas’ submissions come into play when he is the one on top and can search for the back to secure a choke.

Prediction

Combined, these two fighters have had four UFC fights and all four have gone over 1.5 rounds. However, I like playing u1.5 rounds here. I expect Azaitar to, as he typically does, push a wild and aggressive pace early in round 1. That will force Dumas into the type of brawl that has plagued him in the past. So, assuming Dumas wants to keep distance, where his advantage is, I expect Dumas to aggressively counter as he attempts to push Azaitar back.

The combination of a sloppy power puncher and a determined range striker with power should result in someone getting clipped early. Then, if the fight does hit the mat, Dumas’ submission game presents a possible finishing opportunity as well. Both men carry power, both men are hittable, and both men’s preferred style clashes with the other.

The only concern I have is if Azaitar can get Dumas down in round 1. If he does, Dumas will likely try to throw up defensive submissions while Azaitar racks up control time. Fortunately, Azaitar typically clinches in rounds 2 and 3 after aggressively hunting the knockout in round 1. Given u1.5 is a plus money and neither man is very reliable defensively, I’ll side with an early finish in this fight.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+125 at BetUS)

The post UFC 294: Sedriques Dumas vs. Abu Azaitar prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

Warlley Alves, 32, has been in the UFC since 2014. In that time, he has amassed an 8-6 record with six finish wins and three finish losses. Most recently, Alves has lost back-to-back fights.

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Betting Odds

Aliskerov is the largest favorite on the card and has grown the most throughout the week.

• Ikram Aliskerov: -625 (BetUS)
• Warlley Alves: +455 (BetUS)

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Fight Prediction

Aliskerov, prior to the UFC, wasn’t the most well-known prospect and him joining the UFC later in his career indicated that he might not be able to return on the limited hype he had. However, those who watched his pre-UFC fights or saw his debut know that isn’t the case.

Aliskerov is a well-schooled, dangerous, and athletic kickboxer with the power to stop a fight in an instant and the fluidity to effortlessly land his strikes. He excels as a forward-moving counter-striker. His strategy, typically, is to move forward with push kicks, an intelligent jab, and stance-switching movement to either push a willing opponent backward or force a more aggressive opponent into an ill-advised and rushed combination.

In the former’s case, if Aliskerov gets an opponent behind the black line or against the cage, his raw power and well-placed combinations shine as he tees off on his trapped prey. He also has a wrestling and grappling x-factor that helps him hold the clinch and secure takedowns if his barrage of strikes doesn’t stop the fight. In the latter’s case, if an opponent rushes back at him, Aliskerov has impeccably timed counters which he throws with little indication but immense power.

This is his preferred style and path to victory. Thus far, Aliskerov’s strategy and skill have resulted in winning fights with relative ease and effectiveness. The question becomes how he’ll fare if an opponent has the skill to knock Aliskerov off his rhythm and fight in an uncomfortable way.

Alves is exciting, powerful, and unpredictable in the cage. In some fights, like in his last win, he blitzes forward unloading windmill combinations the moment the ref says, “fight!” In these fights, Alves relies on the surprise of his style coupled with his often edge in power and durability. Often being the bigger and stronger fighter, Alves can initiate and engage in a brawl with relative success.

However, against more technical fighters or fighters who can withstand the blitzkrieg of his attack, Alves can be dropped with a clean counter or gas himself out. In other fights, Alves jumps to the other side of the spectrum and fights with a passivity boarding on lethargy. In these fights, Alves’ passivity gives opponents ample opportunities to read and time his strikes.

In fights where he doesn’t try to blitz, Alves typically loses because he doesn’t have the technical ability to match his opponent. His most reliable path to victory is to blitz early with strikes while trying to turn off the lights quickly, then, if the fight enters round 2, try and wrestle. While he isn’t the most fundamental wrestler, Alves can drag opponents down with his natural strength and take a much-needed break on top after a wild first round.

Prediction

Aliskerov, being this large of a favorite, demonstrates the confidence both Vegas and handicappers have in his abilities. While I fully expect him to win, I cannot advocate for putting a -625 favorite into parlays when his opponent – Alves – will likely come out fighting with reckless aggression.

Anything can happen in 4oz gloves. So, to bet this fight, I need to find a number south of -200 and play it straight. Ideally, that would be a bet on Aliskerov to win inside the distance, but that number is juiced to a -265. So, I’m looking at round props.

I fully expect Alves to fight similarly to how he fought in his last win against Lazzez. In that fight, Alves immediately blitzed forward and fought as if the fight was only 5 minutes long. He attacked with little regard for defense and relied on surprise and raw power to overwhelm. Considering the skill gap he has in this fight, Alves’ best chance at a win is to blitz forward again.

Because of that, Aliskerov should have ample opportunities early to finish the fight. And, if Alves shocks the betting world and clips Aliskerov, a round prop covers that outcome as well. I expect Alves to blitz forward immediately, Aliskerov to catch him with a counter, and finish the fight soon after.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160 at BetUS)

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