Usman, who last fought in March, where he lost the rubber match with current champion Leon Edwards, is regarded as one of the best welterweights of all time and one of the best pound-for-pound champions of the current era. He defended his title five times, notching victories over Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington twice each and Gilbert Burns once.

Burns is also the man to give Chimaev his toughest test to date, a three-round war in 2022. He has since marked down one more win, a submission of Kevin Holland at a catchweight in September 2022, before taking off significant time and making his way to middleweight.

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Betting Odds

The line would likely be closer, given both men the appropriate time to train and prepare, but on short notice, Kamaru Usman will come in the +225 underdog

• Kamaru Usman: +225 (BetUS)
• Khamzat Chimaev: -300 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

The general consensus from fans about both Kamaru Usman and Alexander Volkanovski is that both men would likely make it a razor-sharp fight given normal circumstances, but on late notice, it’s a tough puzzle to solve. However, unlike Volkanovski, Usman does have a few added advantages.

Kamaru Usman has always been a big welterweight and known to cut a decent amount of weight. Therefore, he is fighting arguably closer to his natural weight class, without a large weight cut. He is also fighting for the first time in a long time – for only three rounds. From May 2018- March 2023, Usman has fought exclusively in fights scheduled for five rounds, seeing the fifth in 8 of those 10 times. Between the lack of weight cutting and the shorter fight time, Usman can have some confidence that his conditioning and pace will hold up, especially against a guy in Chimaev who is a fast starter and who has showed fatigue in the past.

Chimaev has so far looked nearly unstoppable because he gets his opponents out of the fight in the first round, if not the earliest exchanges of round two with one exception. Chimaev has exceptional wrestling, looking to throw out big flurries of strikes from the opening bell only to set up a blast double, which he can chain around to taking the back and riding his opponents. What he does so well is not only chain his wrestling techniques together, but recycle his choke attempts between control positions, which is what allows him to snatch Darce chokes and other submissions off of wrestling transitions from the back and front headlock positions.

Both men are great wrestlers, but the major differences are the explosive and early physicality of Chimaev, meaning he will likely get ahead in the first round in terms of wrestling, and the submission skills. Usman may be contentious in wrestling exchanges but has to watch his neck, whereas that isn’t likely as great a concern for Chimaev. Usman on the other hand, may want to wrestle to drain Chimaev, who can make mistakes on the feet the more tired he gets.

One of these mistakes is keeping his head on the centre line. Both Usman and Chimaev strike on a line primarily and utilize straight punches. However, usman is good at dipping inside when he jabs, whereas Chimaev shows good head movement in early exchanges but can abandon it the dirtier the fight gets. Gilbert Burns, found success working Chimaev’s body with kicks, but Usman may go to the body with his cross, and lead liver hook, as another means to take away the wind of Chimaev.

Prediction

When both are fresh, I do like Chimaev’s chances. Both men are dominant wrestlers, with powerful striking and knockout power. Chimaev has shown some slick striking mostly prior to his UFC days, and shown great offensive striking in the UFC so far.

However the one blotch on his otherwise perfect performances was Gilbert Burns, where he was dragged into a war, and although victorious did show a lack of fluidity and comfort on the feet when he was forced to take those big deep breathes late in the fight.

Usman is a veteran, and if anyone in his position is set up to take advantage of this in the second half of the fight, it’s him. I do think Chimaev earns points early, and Usman late, if it was all equal I give to the edge to Chimaev banking the first two rounds but at +225, Usman turning the momentum of the fight earlier than that is a decent value.

Pick: Kamaru Usman to win (+225 at BetUS)

The post UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

The unbeaten sensation, known for his dominating performances, has left fans worldwide wondering: “When will Khamzat Chimaev fight next?” and more importantly, “Who will Khamzat Chimaev fight next?”

The wait is over. It’s official. Chimaev is set to make his anticipated return to the Octagon. The match-up is slated for UFC 294, where Chimaev will face Paulo “The Eraser” Costa in a middleweight showdown in Abu Dhabi.

Background

Born in Chechnya and trained in Sweden, Khamzat Chimaev has quickly become one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. With an undefeated record of 12 wins and no losses, Chimaev has proven his worth in both the welterweight and middleweight divisions.

He burst into international fame in 2020, dominating all his opponents, except Gilbert Burns, whom he still defeated in an electrifying unanimous decision bout. Known for his relentless attacks and versatile fighting skills, Chimaev holds the UFC modern record for the fastest three-fight winning streak, accomplished in a mere 66 days.

His opponent, Paulo Costa, is a seasoned Brazilian fighter with a record of 14 wins and 2 losses. Although he has suffered a couple of defeats, Costa’s strength and skill have led him to victories over some notable fighters. He recently ended a two-fight losing streak by earning a unanimous decision win over Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in August 2022.

Khamzat Chimaev’s next fight

Chimaev’s next fight is set to be a riveting middleweight bout against Paulo Costa.

The fight is scheduled for October 21, 2023, and will take place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi as part of UFC 294. This much-anticipated fight was announced by UFC president Dana White and has since garnered significant attention from UFC fans worldwide. Although the card will be headlined by a lightweight title rematch between champion Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira, the Chimaev-Costa fight is expected to draw significant interest.

This match-up brings together two popular fighters known for their distinct styles and approach to the fight. Chimaev, with his undefeated record and quick finishes, is a force to reckon with in the Octagon. Meanwhile, Costa brings to the table his aggressive fighting style and durability, which has seen him win six of his eight UFC fights. As both fighters gear up for the fight, fans can anticipate a thrilling bout filled with action, power, and an intense display of MMA skills.

Chimaev’s Journey So Far

Tracing Khamzat Chimaev’s journey from Chechnya to UFC stardom is nothing short of a thrilling rollercoaster ride. At the tender age of five, he took his first steps into training, which later paved the way for six freestyle wrestling world championships under the Swedish Wrestling Federation. The move to Sweden at 18 years old, following his brother Artur, led Chimaev to the renowned BK Athen, a wrestling dojo where he bagged his wrestling titles from 2015 to 2017.

Although wrestling was his first love, Chimaev was no stranger to other forms of combat sports, like judo and combat sambo. It wasn’t long before he found himself training with some of the greatest names in MMA at the AllStar Training Center in Stockholm, including Alexander Gustafsson, a three-time UFC light heavyweight title challenger.

Despite the dabbling, Chimaev has been an absolute force in his professional career. He made his debut in the UFC as a middleweight but made a quick shift to welterweight, where he surged to become a top-five contender — showcasing adaptability between UFC weight classes. However, it’s questionable whether Chimaev will return to welterweight after he came in at 7.5 pounds over the 171-pound welterweight limit before his scheduled fight with Nate Diaz at UFC 279.

He’s now undefeated with a 12-0 record, and his potential as a title threat to UFC champions between 170 and 185 pounds is unquestionable.

Frequently Asked Questions

The post Khamzat Chimaev Next Fight: Everything we know appeared first on The Body Lock.

Recently, he’s taken aim at the UFC matchmaking process, particularly regarding title fight rematches. Chimaev’s dissatisfaction has been voiced loud and clear, and his criticisms underline a desire for a refreshing shakeup in the way that the UFC schedules title fights — especially after a champion is defeated.

“I’m a big fan of UFC but the last year or so we see like only the same thing,” Chimaev said in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel.

“Pereira and Izzy two times, Usman and Leon two times. Who wants to see that shit? Nobody.”

“I want to see something fun to see. You know, the fans want to see like a crazy show, crazy fights. People want to see “Borz,” you know.”

Standing firm in his convictions, Chimaev believes that he’s the biggest draw of any non-champion fighter in the UFC today.

“I’m the biggest name without the belt, so, when you fight with me it’s more money, more fans,” Chimaev said.

His belief in his ability to pull crowds and generate revenue is unflinching, even claiming that global celebrities, like Cristiano Ronaldo, have been messaging him and asking when he will compete again.

Chimaev also questioned the UFC’s decision to schedule Colby Covington in the next welterweight title fight against Leon Edwards. He suggests a possible national bias in play, with the UFC favoring American fighters for title opportunities.

Expressing his concern, Chimaev explains, “Leon has the title. He said he wants to fight and these things, you know, but I don’t know what UFC wants to do. They give Colby that chance [against Leon].”

“When he win his last fight? I don’t remember who he did win against. Nobody. He’s a nobody, he wins against nobody. [Kamaru] Usman broke his chin two times, knockdowns, that guy is shit. And they gave that chance for him, maybe because he’s from USA. It’s more they want the belt for him.

“I’m from Sweden, I live in Dubai, so maybe they don’t want to give that belt to me.”

However, despite his open criticisms and concerns, Chimaev still holds onto his faith in the UFC’s plans for him. He accepts that the organization may have its reasons and long-term strategies, stating, “Maybe they have good plans for me. I trust that guys, so we’ll see.”

And right now, it looks like the plan for Khamzat Chimaev’s next fight is a showdown with former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in Abu Dhabi at UFC 294 later this year.

The post Khamzat Chimaev criticizes UFC matchmaking: Too many rematches and national bias? appeared first on The Body Lock.

The fight has a compelling narrative attached to it, as it presents a potential turning point for both fighters’ careers. Usman, known as “The Nigerian Nightmare”, is looking to bounce back from back-to-back championship losses to current division kingpin, Leon Edwards, after five consecutive title defenses. A victory over Chimaev would undoubtedly put him back in the title contention conversation.

“It’s a fight that Usman wants, that’s no secret,” UFC president Dana White said during the UFC Vegas 73 press conference last weekend. “Usman literally came to the office to lobby for that fight. I told him I love him. Usman is one of the best guys we’ve ever worked with. I love working with the guy. Look at all the things he’s accomplished.”

Chimaev, also known as “Borz,” has been a relentless force since he arrived in the UFC. He has competed at welterweight, middleweight, and even at a catchweight of 180 pounds, with a flawless record across multiple weight classes. A win over a seasoned veteran like Usman would firmly establish Chimaev as a serious contender for the title.

And Usman and Chimaev have been campaigning for the fight for quite some time now.

Check out our UFC predictions page for expert opinions and analysis on this fight and others once they are officially announced. You can also subscribe to our free email newsletter to receive exclusive predictions and betting tips before every UFC event.

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Usman vs. Chimaev Betting Odds

In betting terms, Chimaev being at -290 means that you would need to wager $290 to win $100, while Usman at +220 indicates that a $100 bet could return $220. This implies a 65.52% probability of Chimaev winning and a 41.67% probability for Usman.

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How to bet on Usman vs. Chimaev

To place a bet on this electrifying bout, follow these steps:

1. Click here to visit the BetUS website.
2. Sign up for an account and claim your sign-up bonus worth up to $2,500.
3. Navigate to the UFC/MMA section.
4. Find the fight listing for Usman vs. Chimaev.
5. Choose your preferred fighter and place your bet.

Note that these early lines are exclusive to BetUS and are part of their “special futures” section, showcasing odds for anticipated fights.

Fight Breakdown

Let’s take a look at the statistics of both fighters:

Tale of the Tape

Chimaev boasts an impressive undefeated record and an edge in height over Usman. However, Usman has a slight advantage in reach.

Striking

When analyzing the striking statistics, Khamzat Chimaev stands out for landing a remarkable 7.30 significant strikes per minute, considerably higher than Usman’s 4.46. However, Chimaev absorbs more significant strikes per minute (3.98) compared to Usman (2.75), indicating a higher offensive but potentially riskier style of fighting.

On the other hand, Usman boasts a superior significant strike defense of 54%, versus Chimaev’s 41%, which can play a crucial role in minimizing the damage taken from his opponent’s attacks. While Chimaev’s striking accuracy stands at 59%, Usman’s is slightly lower at 52%, yet still impressive.

Grappling

In the grappling department, Chimaev appears dominant with an average of 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Usman’s 2.96. His takedown accuracy of 57% surpasses Usman’s 45%, and Chimaev has a perfect 100% takedown defense although Usman has clearly defended against a higher number of takedowns with an impressive 97% defense rate.

Chimaev also showcases a more aggressive submission game, attempting an average of 3.5 submissions per 15 minutes. In contrast, Usman, known for his control-oriented grappling, attempts a modest 0.1 submissions on average.

Overall, this potential match-up promises a thrilling contest, bringing together two elite fighters with contrasting styles. All statistics have been sourced from UFC Stats.

Final Thoughts

The fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman brings together two fierce competitors, each with his unique strengths. Chimaev, the welterweight boogieman with impressive striking and grappling stats, versus Usman, the former champion, known for his strategic fighting and robust defense.

If you are inclined to place a wager on this high-stakes bout, remember that the best odds currently available are -290 for Chimaev and +220 for Usman at BetUS.

Finally, we want to hear from you. Who do you think has the edge in this potential bout? Do you agree with the odds, or do you see an upset in the making?

Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below.

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The post Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev: Early UFC Betting Odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

This comes after Chimaev released a tweet teasing that Covington is “next.” The two were originally a target matchup prior to UFC 279, when White stated he hoped to make the fight if Chimaev got through Gilbert Burns at UFC 273, which he ultimately did. The fight would have massive stakes as for Covington a win could earn him another title shot, this time against Leon Edwards, a fresh champion whom he is yet to meet. For Chimaev, being Covington who is ranked #2 in the world would also make a good argument for his quickly earned shot at the belt.

Chimaev has only been fighting in the UFC since July 2020, which means he would make one of the quicker runs to the title in UFC history with a win over Covington, and oddsmakers seem to believe in this reality. Chimaev has opened as a -200 favorite in the potential future event, with Covington a dog at +170. Since the rumors first materialized, the gap has started to close. On BetUS, the Chechnyan wrestler is currently at -160, and the American at +130.

What this means is a $160 bet on Chimaev returns $100 and $100 on Covington returns $130.

Both men have largely earned their success in the UFC to their extremely high-level wrestling, with Chimaev a multiple-time Swedish national champion and Covington a Division 1 All-American out of Oregon State. At #2 and #3 in the rankings and their similar fighting systems a clash between these two is a promised barn-burner, not to mention their brash personalities meeting in the possible lead-up.

Here are the opening odds for the pair’s last five fights:

Khamzat Chimaev’s last five fights:

• vs. Kevin Holland (W): -1000
• vs. Gilbert Burns (W): -110
• vs. Li Jingliang (W): -260
• vs. Gerald Meerschart (W): -500
• vs. Rhys McKee (W): -600

Colby Covington’s last five fights:

• vs. Jorge Masvidal (W): -190
• vs. Kamaru Usman (L): +190
• vs. Tyron Woodley (W): -250
• vs. Kamaru Usman (L): +170
• vs. Robbie Lawler (W): -175

The post Khamzat Chimaev vs. Colby Covington odds for rumored matchup winner appeared first on The Body Lock.

Diaz, who has just one fight remaining on his UFC contract, is a huge underdog before this weekend’s five-round bout as many fans and the oddsmakers clearly believe that the dominant wrestler will make it six wins in a row in the UFC.

As always, we’re here to break down this UFC main event fight and share our predictions before Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev.

Betting Odds

Nate Diaz is a massive underdog before UFC 279 this weekend. At these odds, his implied probability to win is close to six percent.

• Nate Diaz: +750 (BetUS)
• Khamzat Chimaev:  -1500 (BetUS)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Khamzat Chimaev is a massive favorite over Nate Diaz, and with good reason, but there are a lot of factors. Stylistically, Diaz has always struggled with big strong wrestlers, at lightweight he was able to offset some of these, such as Gray Maynard, with submission threats enough to force striking exchanges and utilize his boxing. However, with the exception of Conor McGregor and Anthony Pettis, who are also more natural lightweights like himself, he has struggled against true 170lbers. Rory Macdonald is the best example of this, who dominated so heavily in the wrestling that Diaz was suplexed thrice in succession. Chimaev is not only a true welterweight, but he has looked excellent at middleweight as well.

Chimaev is likely the best wrestler in the division. He is a junior bronze medalist at the Russian nationals and a 3x Swedish National champion. His takedowns are diverse and unpredictable as he shoots low but mixes up the level at which he finishes, ankle picking, digging underhooks or cutting to the back just as easily. On the mat, Chimaev usually laces one leg and allows his opponents to choose between eating ground and pound or give up their back.

In terms of striking, he is relatively fundamental, but offensively his weapons are sharp. He has good power in his straight right and has a nice jab, and his body and leg kicks are great. His head kicks are not quite as polished, but his head movement is smooth in short combinations. However, when drawn into longer exchanges the stiffness becomes more apparent as striking is not his first nature.

Diaz loves those longer exchanges, often throwing upwards of 6 or so shots in a combination, especially if he can trap someone on the fence and unload hooks to the body. He does this to a slightly lesser degree than his brother, which is a common misconception, but he is a bit more explosive. This is best exemplified in a very clean 1-2 combination, and he throws it on an off-rhythm, instead of throwing the cross as he retracts the jab the cross has started mid-jab making it difficult to read.

Regardless, however, the difference in volume will be negated by Chimaev’s grappling and power. His feints will force Diaz to react to the takedown threat and exchanging with him especially with the size difference will cause Diaz to take twice as much damage per shot they can each land. Diaz’s best opportunities will come if he can hurt Chimaev and latch onto a submission should Chimaev revert to straight wrestling instincts and offer his neck. Otherwise, the size, power, speed and technical grappling skills pits Chimaev at a massive advantage everywhere else.

Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev to win

Michael Pounders

Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev went from being relatively unknown prior to his UFC debut to a superstar in the organization soon after. Chimaev accomplished this by winning his first four UFC fights by emphatic finish while only absorbing one total strike. After his first 4 UFC fights, Chimaev was like a mythical creature- untouchable and unequivocally dominant. Gilbert Burns, though, nearly shattered the myth of “Borz” by not only surviving Chimaev’s typical onslaught but forcing a back-and-forth war. While many view Chimaev’s fight against Burns as a negative because Chimaev was unable to get the finish, was nearly finished himself, and showed he was human, I view that fight as a positive.

Chimaev demonstrated intelligence, toughness, and a granite chin. Early in round 1, Chimaev secured a powerful takedown and racked up 1:14 of control time that included his patented vicious ground and pound. But, with Burns’ elite jiu-jitsu, rather than continue heavy ground and pound which leaves his arms exposed for Burns to take home, Chimaev intelligently switched his game plan mid-fight. He finished the fight enduring and overcoming massive blows from an elite fighter and returning fire on the feet himself. Chimaev is a supremely talented and strong wrestler who has shown impressive timing and power in his takedowns. Those skills are undoubtedly still prevalent in his game. But, importantly, fans and backers of Chimaev can be confident in his striking power and output. The only remaining question, one that may never need to be answered if Chimaev returns to his electrifying early finishes, is his cardio. Typically, elite wrestlers, of which Chimaev is, can wrestle for five rounds without gassing out. Cardio questions occur when wrestlers get into striking wars. I suspect that is what happened to Chimaev last time out; therefore, when he isn’t facing an elite BJJ fighter and can confidently wrestle, cardio shouldn’t be an issue. The bottom line is that Chimaev has the skills and talent to not just win Saturday night but hold the belt sooner than later.

Nate Diaz may be the most popular and notorious fighter to have never held UFC gold. He helped put the sport on the map and make it into the global sensation that it is today. His style, unique to himself, is built on the foundation of cardio, toughness, and a well-rounded skillset. Diaz, both Nate and his brother Nick, have excelled in 5 round fights because they have the cardio to not only go five rounds but get better the later the fight goes on. Diaz is able to rack up volume throughout a fight while absorbing a hellish amount in return without so much as batting an eye, even if that eye is bleeding profusely. Diaz’s striking style, outside of his famous “Stockton Slap” where he literally slaps his opponent, is varied and awkward. Diaz typically fights with his hands low and moves freely in the octagon. His low hands allow him to land a quick jab from below his opponent’s eye line, making it more accurate and difficult to defend. His footwork, which is more like casually standing and walking in contrast to traditional footwork, is awkward enough to throw the timing off his foe and further improve his accuracy and effectiveness. Diaz, who isn’t the most powerful striker, inflicts damage through his volume and pressure, death by a thousand cuts. For Diaz, finishing fights tends to happen more on the mat, through his counter jiu-jitsu rather than on the feet or through his offensive wrestling. Diaz’s ability to survive and reverse position will be paramount if Diaz wants to win as a significant underdog.

Chimaev is a -1400, with a 93% implied win probability, for a reason, he is that good. Chimaev will have the edge in power and a significant edge in wrestling. “Borz” should be able to ragdoll Diaz with ease, he’s more skilled and much stronger than the Stockton native. However, Chimaev enjoys being a showman and might play with his food a bit. The longer the fight goes on, the better Diaz gets, and, while still unlikely, increases the odds for an upset. I expect Chimaev to strike with Diaz in round 1, looking to put on a show. Then, before the fight reaches championship rounds, I’m anticipating Chimaev to land a powerful takedown and get a finish soon after, just like he has in most of his UFC fights.

Prediction: Chimaev to win in rounds 2 or 3

The post Staff Predictions: Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev | UFC 279 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Nate Diaz is a former lightweight turned welterweight, coming off of two losses, with his last win coming in 2019 against Anthony Pettis, another former lightweight. Diaz is absolutely one of the largest stars in the promotion right now due to his rivalry with the notorious Conor McGregor and his BMF belt match with Jorge Masvidal.

The decision by the UFC to put the veteran star up against the surging contender left a few fans scratching their heads despite the obvious excitement. Analysts, including Dan Hardy, have been extremely harsh in their criticism of the promotion, but at the end of the day, the two will fight. So the question remains, does Nate Diaz have a chance against Khamzat Chimaev? Well, in a game of inches, where anything can happen, of course Diaz has a shot, but the true question is, “what are his chances?”

Nate Diaz’s career as a whole is a splatter of mixed results, but to be fair, the fights he pursued were ambitious. In terms of ranking, the highest level he achieved in the sport was fighting for the 155lb title in 2012 against Benson Henderson and he stayed a perennial contender for most of his career afterward. However, throughout his career, Diaz has been counted out many times. The first major being Donald Cerrone who at the time was undefeated in the UFC and on a six-fight win streak. Cerrone was dubbed the -400 favorite, meaning that oddsmakers had enough faith in him that it cost $400 just to win $100 on him.

Diaz shocked those same oddsmakers by putting on a boxing clinic against “Cowboy” Cerrone, but that was only the second most well-known time Diaz defied the odds. In 2016 Rafael Dos Anjos was pulled from the biggest UFC at the time against Conor McGregor. The two held titles in separate divisions, and the bout was scheduled for McGregor to potentially make history as the first-ever double champion. However, on 11 days’ notice, Diaz stepped in to save the card and take on the Irishman at welterweight.

While McGregor was the reigning champion, having just dethroned Jose Aldo, Diaz called his shot after beating Michael Johnson on FOX as an undercard fight for Cerrone. However, a perfectly worded callout and his willingness to leave his vacation to fight in just a week and a half were more than enough. That being said, few gave him a shot. Oddsmakers had McGregor as high a favorite as -475. Yet, it was McGregor who wobbled and was submitted in the second round.

Nate Diaz’s style is one made for the upset. He lacks much explosive power, slick movement, or sharpness, but he makes up for this with persistent pressure, volume boxing, and dangerous submissions. Diaz trains his cardio via triathlon training, which is what lends him his tremendous pace over long fights. He tends to get outworked early when he and his opponent are both fresh, and his speed detriment is on display. However, as time goes on, his superior conditioning, as well as the efficient boxing style in which he doesn’t need to explode with big kicks, allows him to start snowballing them with strikes. He doesn’t throw 100% into each shot instead pot shots with 3 or 4 before landing one power punch. The other major attribute Diaz possesses is his reach becomes accentuated with exhaustion as he begins to land too far away to be countered by tired opponents.

Diaz also has extremely slick jiu-jitsu, he has 11 submissions on his record and grappled one step ahead of Anthony Pettis their entire fight. However, the vast majority of his submission victories have come off of his back, via guillotine or triangle. As a smaller fighter at welterweight, it’s easy to imagine Diaz being rag-dolled by the better wrestlers of the division, and there isn’t really any chance we see Diaz gain any ground going head to head with Chimaev in this apartment. It’s that split moment in transition where Diaz could snake in a choke or snap something should Chimaev gas or get tagged.

Diaz’s style lends itself to the upset because it’s not fanciful or fast. He often loses until he pulls ahead seemingly from nowhere. He often catches opportunities in disadvantageous positions. Will Diaz beat Chimaev? Probably not, but just look at his record, if there’s ever a fighter who can never be counted out, it’s Nate Diaz.

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In order for a championship to be not on the line, the UFC must have intense trust in the headliner’s star power, and while Nate Diaz goes without saying, Khamzat Chimaev is something special with how quick and bright his star has burned in the past few years. Not only is Chimaev an entertaining and captivating character, but the way that he has risen in his fights is something to behold, he is both dominant and goes to war, and the successes he has accomplished along the way are unprecedented.

As UFC 279 grows nearer, it’s time to once again take a deep dive into Khamzat Chimaev and ask what makes him so good?

His upbringing

Fighters, more than any other athletes, seem to be cultivated from adversity. Chimaev’s original opponent, Nate Diaz, is famous for explaining his introduction to fighting as going to the gym because it meant one of the guys there would get him a burrito, and otherwise, he wouldn’t be able to eat that day. Jose Aldo and Charles Oliveira became champions by using MMA to leave poverty and the Brazilian Favelas. Yet, Khamzat Chimaev’s story rivals any and all of these.

Chimaev was born in Chechnya, Russia, in 1994 during the war. He described his childhood as “a hard time without food” and cited his religion and a small village as his home. Despite being born into hardship, he channeled that fear and subsequent aggression into combat sports, starting wrestling by age five. Russia is the most dominant nation in wrestling in the world, and the Soviet Union still holds the record for the most Olympic medals in the sports history.

Chimaev thrived in that sport in that area of the world as a youth, winning a bronze at the Junior Russian National Championships before, he and his mother immigrated to Sweden to meet his brother when he was 18. Once relocated, Chimaev then went on to three Swedish National Championships, the last without giving up a single point.

The technical skills

His roots in wrestling stem very far back into his childhood, and those skills are largely what makes him the fighter he is today. The variety in takedowns that Chimaev offers is a challenge for anyone opposite him. He shoots extremely low and commits to attacking the legs, but also just as often shoots with the intent of rising and meeting the sprawl and getting to double underhooks. From here, he attacks outside trips or even tries to elevate his opponent completely. Once he completes the takedown, his control is something special, he is a master at figure-fouring the legs. Often he will look to secure just one which allows his opponent to attempt an escape and give up the back, which is how he so seamlessly transitions

Yet, as a mixed martial artist, Chimaev may have adapted to other skills better than any wrestler turned fighter in the UFC. His submissions are slick, especially his D’arce, which he has used to finish opponents three times. His punching power is also evident with one-shot KO ability, and although his striking sticks largely to the fundamentals, it is fight and sharp. His best punches come up the center, and he likes to either trap his opponents against the fence and land or get them to clash with him and run onto his punches. If there is one flaw that was clear in his most recent bout, it’s that over time, the rigidity of his head movement comes out, but largely he is as fluid a striker as any elite wrestler who adopted the secondary skill set.

Talent, drive, fighting instinct

There have been countless MMA fighters throughout the life of the sport with incredible talent. We have seen fighters who seem to enter the matrix, and yet the vast majority of these natural talents do not also have the grit to entertain a long career, consistently battle adversity or go to the epitome of war in the octagon. We have also seen those fighters who lack natural talent but persevere and work harder than anyone else in the room and break out on top. We have seen those who are the most talented or the most driven in the training room, but they look like they were born for battle when they have to rise to the occasion.

The special thing about Khamzat Chimaev is that he somehow showcases all three. He won a Bronze medal at the Russian Junior Nationals. He then bested himself by winning two golds at the Swedish Nationals before going further and earning a third, a weight class up without dropping a point. He then earned a 3-0 perfect amateur MMA record. Then he went 6-0 as a pro before entering the UFC, getting then to 11-0 while breaking records in striking differentials and quickest turnaround. The most impressive thing is that despite all the success and lack of adversity, he never got complacent, he improved with every performance, and while the accomplishments grew in number, the quality he executed them with did also.

Finally, in his most recent fight, he met Gilbert Burns, the #2 welterweight in the world. Going into the fight, Chimaev’s performances were flawless, he had never lost a round, and he had finished everybody he had fought. While no one questioned his skills, how he reacted to any potential adversity was simply unknown, and Burns finally provided fans with an answer. In three full rounds the two went back and forth, both being close to getting finished multiple times. While it was not the clean victory we had come to expect from the Chechnyan, it was now clear that he could come out of the other end of a blood and guts war just as confidently.

What makes Chimaev so good?

Chimaev was born into adversity in life, which forced him to direct his talent and energy into martial arts almost from birth. That culminated in a vicious run in combat sports from child to young adulthood, and while success kept coming, his drive never waned. Chimaev is a rare combination of immense natural talent and a hunger for improvement and victory that seems to never be quenched, and if stories from the training room are to be believed, he is the most intense fighter you can find there. With all that talent and drive, the only thing left is to make the most of it at the moment, and we have seen him earn UFC victories cold and collected through dominating performances and by enduring a dog fight at the highest level in the division.

The next test will be against Kevin Holland, under the brightest lights, with likely the most eyes on a UFC event in the entire year. It’s once again time for Chimaev to rise to another challenge and up his own accomplishments even more.

The post UFC 279: What makes Khamzat Chimaev so good? appeared first on The Body Lock.

As it stands, Diaz is currently a massive +850 betting underdog against Chimaev. Chimaev’s remarkable -1600 odds as the betting favorite represent a 94 percent implied probability of winning. In practical terms, a simple $100 wager on Chimaev would return just $6 if he’s successful at UFC 279.

The Diaz vs. Chimaev betting odds should come as no surprise to those who have followed the career of both fighters. In fact, when they touch gloves on Saturday night, it’ll mark the ninth consecutive fight that Diaz has been a betting underdog on the closing lines. The last time that Diaz had closed as a betting favorite was all the way back in 2013 when he faced Josh Thomson on UFC on FOX 7.

Nate Diaz’s odds – last ten fights

• Leon Edwards (+385) – L
• Jorge Masvidal (+135) – L
• Anthony Pettis (+110) – W
• Conor McGregor II (+375) – L
• Conor McGregor (+122) – W
• Michael Johnson (+315) – W
• Rafael dos Anjos (+250) – L
• Gray Maynard (+110) – W
• Josh Thomson (-145) – L
• Benson Henderson (+185) – L

And despite entering as an underdog in nine of his last ten fights, Diaz has managed to win four bouts and returned a total profit for those who had backed him.  Put simply, a $100 bet on each of Diaz’s last ten bouts ($1,000 total) would have returned $1,057. Not bad, considering how the bookmakers have shaped up before his fights so far.

Arguably the most interesting takeaway is how insane Diaz’s +850 odds vs. Chimaev look in comparison to the rest of the listed fighters above. He was a huge +385 underdog against now-champion Leon Edwards when they fought in June last year and, despite the odds, almost managed a stunning upset in the final minute of the fight.

So why is Nate Diaz such a huge underdog against Khamzat Chimaev before UFC 279?

UFC fighters recently shared their Diaz vs. Chimaev predictions, and while many are hoping that Diaz will be successful on the night, many believe that Chimaev is the far more skilled fighter overall. Chimaev’s dominant pressure wrestling, powerful striking, and relative unpredictability as a fighter will likely cause a stylistic nightmare for Diaz on the weekend. Some fighters also fear that Diaz isn’t mentally ready for the fight with Chimaev.

Diaz may hold advantages in both submission ability and endurance, but it’s possible that Chimaev may be able to finish the fight early and prevent Diaz from sneaking into the later rounds. Chimaev’s elite wrestling and heavy top pressure may also disable Diaz’s tricky submission game to some extent.

As always, The Body Lock’s expert analysts will provide detailed fight breakdowns before the UFC 279 fights this weekend, including the Diaz vs. Chimaev main event. Visit our site closer to the fight date for more breakdowns and analysis of the main event bout.

Watch Diaz vs. Chimaev live

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
• Time: PPV Main Card starts at 10 pm ET, Prelims start at 6 pm ET
• Watch: ESPN+ PPV (order here)

Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev is the main event of the UFC 279 PPV main card. Fans can order UFC 279 on the ESPN+ website to watch every main card fight live, including the Diaz vs. Chimaev. After ordering, fans can stream every UFC 279 fight to a preferred device, including TVs, mobiles, computers, laptops, tablets, and more.

UFC 279 Fight Odds

Saturday, Sept. 10 – T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Main Card – 10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT only on ESPN+ PPV (order here)

• Khamzat Chimaev (-1600) vs. Nate Diaz (+850)
• Li Jingliang (-280) vs. Tony Ferguson (+210)
• Kevin Holland (-210) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+165)
• Irene Aldana (-220) vs. Macy Chiasson (+175)
• Johnny Walker (+150) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-180)

Prelims – 8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT on ESPN+

• Hakeem Dawodu (-230) vs. Julian Erosa (+180)
• Denis Tiuliulin (+110) vs. Jamie Pickett (-140)
• Jake Collier (-360) vs. Chris Barnett (+260)

Early Prelims– 6:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT on ESPN+

• Norma Dumont (-350) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+250)
• Chad Anheliger (+140) vs. Alateng Heili (-170)
• Melissa Martinez (-155) vs. Elise Reed (+125)
• Darian Weeks (-140) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+110)

The post UFC 279 Odds: Why Nate Diaz is huge underdog vs. Khamzat Chimaev appeared first on The Body Lock.

Diaz makes his return on Saturday, Sept. 10, when he’ll face #3 ranked welterweight Chimaev in a five-round main event bout. Chimaev is undefeated after 11 professional fights and is now 5-0 in the UFC after defeating Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision in April. Diaz has lost his last two bouts against Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal but almost scored a stunning last-minute finish against now-champion Edwards when he rocked him with a straight left.

Unsurprisingly, Chimaev is a massive betting favorite before UFC 279 with -1600 odds at some bookmakers. Diaz’s +850 odds mean that a $100 wager would return a total of $950 if he manages the upset.

Read on for a collection of UFC fighter picks and predictions before Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz, courtesy of James Lynch’s MMA Pros Pick series.

Watch Diaz vs. Chimaev live

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
• Time: PPV Main Card starts at 10 pm ET, Prelims start at 6 pm ET
• Watch: ESPN+ PPV (order here)

Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev is the main event of the UFC 279 PPV main card. Fans can order UFC 279 on the ESPN+ website to watch every main card fight live, including the Diaz vs. Chimaev. After ordering, fans can stream every UFC 279 fight to a preferred device, including TVs, mobiles, computers, laptops, tablets, and more.

Diaz vs. Chimaev predictions

Anthony Smith

“I’m kind of happy for both guys. Nate’s getting what he wants. He wants out of his contract. He wanted a fight. He wanted it now, so now he’s got it. It’s a pretty tough way to go out the door. As much as I can say, Chimaev is the more powerful striker, he’s the more technical guy, and he’s the better wrestler. The only thing I can definitely give you a place where Nate Diaz has an advantage is conditioning and submission ability.

“But Nate Diaz is Nate Diaz, man. He can mess around and make it tough for anybody, even Leon Edwards. Nate has this uncanny ability to make people look bad. So, there’s a good chance that could happen. I’m not going to put any significant amount of money on it, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nate turn this into an ugly dog fight, kind of like the first and second Conor fight. But chances are Chimaev has a relatively easy time.” (via James Lynch)

Geoff Neal

“I was surprised by this fight. He [Diaz] should have been fighting Dustin, in my opinion, but it is what it is. Hope he does well. Chimaev is a way bigger dude, so I don’t know how that will play out. If Nate can stop his takedowns… I doubt that. What happens when Chimaev takes him down? Is Nate going to throw up a submission off his back? I don’t know. But I know for sure if Chimaev gets his hands on Nate, he’s taking him down. That’s for sure going to happen.” (via James Lynch)

Casey Kenney

“I’m going to go against Chimaev, and I’m going to go with Diaz. I think the odds are against him, but, you know, maybe we’ll see another McGregor moment.” (via James Lynch)

Gerald Meerschaert

“I can see this going one of two ways. One way is if Khamzat does what he did against Gilbert Burns and says, ‘screw it,’ throws caution to the wind, and stands and bangs with him the whole time. And then I think Diaz actually, you know, makes it to at least the fourth round, and then Khamzat gets tired of that and gets a fourth or fifth round finish. Or Khamzat just comes out and thinks that he wants to get in and out of there and makes it look easy. He can jump on Diaz early and get him out of there in the first round by catching him off guard, pretending he’s going to box and then take him down, take his back, and then ends up choking him because Nate’s not like kind-of warmed up in the fight yet.” (via James Lynch)

Curtis Blaydes

“It’s sad to say, but I think he ragdolls him. I think Diaz doesn’t have the strength. Chimaev, when he was able to ragdoll the Chinese fighter, The Leech [Li Jingliang], I was able to know how strong he is because The Leech fought my homie Neil, and Neil told me how strong he was. For him to manhandle him, I don’t think Diaz is just not strong enough. He has the skill, and he’s a five-round type of fighter, but this isn’t going to be five rounds. Chimaev is going to pounce on him early, be super aggressive, and blitz him. It’s almost going to be like Ngannou but with a wrestler.” (via James Lynch)

Chad Anheliger

“Diaz. I know it sounds crazy. But a lot of people are saying the same reasons that I have. I think some of the things Diaz does well can give Khamzat problems. Some of the cardio and durability, it just depends on which Nate shows up. If he’s in shape, he can drag that fight out and cause problems. It’s picking with my heart, but I hope he can pull it off.” (via James Lynch)

Jake Collier

“My heart says I want Diaz to win. But the fighter in me, realistically, doesn’t see that happening. Chimaev is going to be too much. Too much pressure, too good of a grappler — that man has ungodly grappling capabilities. I was in Abu Dhabi, and I watched that man run on the treadmill, getting it for a solid 30 minutes, and it didn’t even look like he was breathing hard. I was like ‘man,’ that guy is just an animal man. He can strike, his grappling is phenomenal, I just see him being a little too much for Nate.” (via James Lynch)

Darian Weeks

“I know Khamzat is a tough guy, and he’s the new up-and-coming thing, but I ain’t never sleeping against the Diaz brothers, you know what I mean. They’re the guys who, you know, have been in this game for a long time. As we’ve seen with Nate Diaz’s fight against Leon Edwards, he was getting battered and bruised the whole fight, but it only took 10 seconds for the tide to turn. It wasn’t for the showboating, maybe Nate Diaz could have got him a late-round finish, but that’s what they do best — showboat. I’m going to go Nate Diaz on this.” (via James Lynch)

Dustin Stoltzfus

“I think the Diaz brothers, in general, are very good fighters, and Nate has shown that he’s very, very talented, but they have a very specific set of skills and a very predictable fighting style. He’s not terribly good against pressure wrestlers, so I think if Chimaev gets in on him and controls his hips on the ground, it’s going to be a fairly easy win for him. Obviously, Nate is great on his back and on the ground as well, but against a wrestler, it’s really hard to get any submissions off if they know what they’re doing. And Chimaev is a great power puncher as well. Nate is hard to put away, so as long as he stays patient and works his wrestling in there, Nate can be pretty easily outpointed if you keep the pressure on him and keep wrestling.”

Gillian Robertson

“I hate this matchup so much. I want to say Nate Diaz will win with all my heart, but I just can’t.” (via James Lynch)

Jamie Pickett

“If I had to put $500 on it, I’ve gotta go Chimaev. It’s not because Nate Diaz will lose because he’s a lesser opponent, I think he’ll lose because it feels from his tweets that he doesn’t really care about the game anymore, he’s ready to get out. He doesn’t have that old Nate fire that he used to have. I don’t know if he really cares as much as he used to.” (via James Lynch)

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