Luke Rockhold – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com UFC news, predictions, results Sun, 21 Aug 2022 04:24:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/thebodylockmma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/cropped-TBL-Logo-Black.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Luke Rockhold – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com 32 32 130349868 UFC 278 Results: Paulo Costa wins grueling three-round war with Luke Rockhold https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/paulo-costa-vs-luke-rockhold-results/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/paulo-costa-vs-luke-rockhold-results/#respond Sun, 21 Aug 2022 03:37:08 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=39579 Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold is tonight’s UFC 278 co-main event in Salt Lake City, Utah. The UFC 278 PPV will feature Kamaru Usman vs....

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Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold is tonight’s UFC 278 co-main event in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The UFC 278 PPV will feature Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards 2 as the main event. The full fight card will stream live only on ESPN+ in the United States. Order UFC 278 here to watch this fight and all others live or on replay.

We’ll be bringing you live play-by-play updates for every main card fight, including Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold right now and also Usman vs. Edwards later in the night.

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Costa vs. Rockhold full fight play-by-play

Watch the full fight live now on ESPN+ PPV or view the full fight replay on ESPN+.

Round one

Costa takes the center but it’s Rockhold who lands first. A short right hook lands over the top and tags Costa. Now Costa’s backing up. Rockhold comes forward and shoots, but Costa lands a punch, and Rockhold may have been hurt. He falls to his knee during the takedown attempt, and Costa continues to strike. Now they’re back up. Rockhold attempting to recover, but Costa is all over him. Lands another strong punch, and now it’s Costa who takes Rockhold down.

A surprising turn of events here as Costa was winning the fight on the feet before electing to take Rockhold to the mat. He’s on top, and now Rockhold is working from the bottom. Costa posturing up and striking, but Rockhold has wrapped his arms around the upper back of Costa to break his posture. Costa in full mount, sits up, but Rockhold bucks him off and turns. Costa falls into Rockhold’s half guard now. Costa working the body of Rockhold from top position. Now he’s moved up to full mount again. Rockhold elevates his hips, bucks Costa off, turns, escapes, and now they’re back up in the center.

With 90 seconds remaining, the strike count is 47 – 7 to Costa’s advantage. A hard body kick from Rockhold. He goes again. Lands again. Once more, too. Hard body kicks are landing for Rockhold, but Costa smiles and shakes it off. Rockhold is bleeding. Costa pushing him back up against the cage now. They reset, and Rockhold is breathing with his mouth wide open. Rockhold lands a heavy right hand to end the round.

Round one: 10-9 for Costa

Round two

Costa goes for a body kick but Rockhold counters with a straight punch that lands heavy. Rockhold coming out strong to start round two. Costa returns fire with a punch of his own. They’re on the mat now, and Rockhold attempts to take the back of Costa, but he gets up, and now it’s Costa controlling Rockhold. Rockhold pushes Costa off, and they’re back into boxing range. Costa’s stalking Rockhold now and unloads a huge left hook. But Rockhold returns again with a strong left hand.

Both fighters now exchanging the heaviest of punches, and they’re swinging wildly. Rockhold is breathing heavy and looks badly fatigued. He lands a spinning back kick to the body of Costa. And another big body kick connects. Costa high kick lands. Rockhold with his own strong punch. Rockhold puts his hands on his knees and attempts to draw in a deep breath.

Costa pushing forward. Another strong body kick from Rockhold. This time he goes high, and it just misses. Rockhold looks exhausted, but his strikes are still fast and heavy. Costa now comes forward and lands a strong punch to Rockhold’s groin. Rockhold drops. Now there’s an official time-out as Rockhold gets a chance to recover. The altitude is having a huge impact here tonight, and both of these fighters are heavily fatigued.

The timeout lasts for 90 seconds, and now they’re back to fighting with 1:40 left in the round. Costa is moving forward and putting the pressure on Rockhold here after the break. Another spinning back kick from Rockhold. Heavy leg kick from Costa lands to the front of Rockhold’s legs as he tries to circle. Rockhold’s strikes are slower now, and he drops his hands to his knees at the end of the second round before being dragged back to his corner.

Round two: 10-9 for Costa

Round three

It’s the same start to round three as Costa comes forward and pressures Rockhold. Costa slips, and Rockhold blitzes forward to rush into top position, but it’s a sloppy attempt to secure top position, and Costa escapes. A stiff right hand from Costa lands to the nose of Rockhold. Rockhold was clearly hurt by that one but drops his hand and returns with another heavy strike.

Costa’s still coming forward. Rockhold ducking and covering up and then seems to shout at Costa before landing a strong right hand down the middle. Rockhold’s hands are closer to his knees than his chin right now, but he’s just unloading with maximum power on every shot. Rockhold rushes forward with a takedown attempt, but Costa sprawls perfectly and then transitions to top control. He’s in modified side control here as Rockhold grips his calf to block Costa from passing.

Costa’s still on top here, and Rockhold is attempting to defend. He rolls, Costa takes the back, and now has two hooks in. He’s punching from Rockhold’s back. Rockhold grabs Costa’s hands, and they continue hand-fighting. Costa looking for a body triangle. Rockhold attempts to stand, but Costa maintains control. Rockhold trying to spin and end up on top. Costa tries to defend, but Rockhold pushes through and is now in Costa’s full guard. Rockhold is on top and is now just rubbing his bloody nose and chin all over Costa’s face. What a fight. Absolutely crazy.

Round three: 10-9 for Costa

Official Result: Paulo Costa def. Luke Rockhold via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

 

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Staff Predictions: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold | UFC 278 odds, picks https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/paulo-costa-vs-luke-rockhold/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/paulo-costa-vs-luke-rockhold/#respond Thu, 18 Aug 2022 23:17:16 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=39546 A fantastic middleweight clash between Paulo Costa and Luke Rockhold is this weekend’s scheduled UFC co-main event at UFC 278. Rockhold, a former UFC middleweight...

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A fantastic middleweight clash between Paulo Costa and Luke Rockhold is this weekend’s scheduled UFC co-main event at UFC 278.

Rockhold, a former UFC middleweight champion, will make his return after consecutive defeats — the latest being in July 2019 against Jan Blachowicz. Costa’s also experienced the first losing streak of his career, coming up short against both Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori.

Costa and Rockhold will feature on the UFC 278 fight card this Saturday, August 20, in Salt Lake City, Utah. The main event of the night will be a welterweight clash between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. As always, read on for our full staff predictions, staff picks, breakdowns, and the latest betting odds before UFC 278 this weekend.

Betting Odds

Luke Rockhold opened as a +220 underdog against Paulo Costa, but the odds have only grown further apart since then, as he’s now listed as a +284 underdog at MyBookie. Paulo Costa’s opening line was -260 as the betting favorite, and there’s now less value on him at the current odds of -370.

Staff Picks

Braeden Arbour

Both of these men will be coming into the fight with a lot of pressure on their backs. Costa, after being undefeated in his career, is coming off of his first and only two losses in the sport. Rockhold likewise is coming off of two losses which puts him almost half a decade out from his last win. However, the routes these two have taken in the last few years are not your average ones; changes in weight, championship-level fights and all, the two men, make no mistake, are still two of the best in the world technically and when they are on point.

From the technical perspective, there is a lot going on. Both men are great kickers, primarily their power round kicks to the body, which will be especially open as Costa fighting from an orthodox stance will be opposite to Rockhold, who is a southpaw. From this range, Rockhold is a bit slicker in mixing up his targets, he has a nice question mark kick which could become a tactical advantage late if the two end up exchanging body shots over the duration of the first few rounds. If the fight does end up taking place from a relatively longer striking range, Rockhold does also possess a five-inch reach advantage in the punching department.

However, while Costa may use his singular kicks at range, he ultimately does want to get inside the pocket and try to wear down Rockhold with boxing. He tends to swarm and keep his foot on the gas while mixing his hooks upstairs and to the ribs. The big question mark hovering over this fight, though is the state of Rockhold’s chin. Since his title reign in 2015, Rockhold has sustained three knockouts in four fights and then taken three years off. One would hope his time away from damage has allowed him to recover some, but it would be fair to give Costa the edge in durability at this point in their careers.

This is partially why we may see a very grappling-heavy attack from Luke Rockhold. While Costa is a black belt in BJJ, we have seen very little use in MMA. Luke Rockhold, on the other hand, has shown himself to be one of the best top game jiu-jitsu artists in the division. His one-armed guillotine of Michael Bisping, his inverted triangle of Tim Boesch, and his rear-naked choke of Lyoto Machida are all difficult submissions to get in very high-level competition. What’s more notable, even though, is his ability to maintain top control with relative ease, the thing about Rockhold’s grappling is that once he has established top position, he is not only difficult to move, but he makes it seem somewhat effortless. Against David Branch, who is a far cry from Costa in terms of the level of competition, Rockhold found himself hurt but turned to his grappling and used that top control to recover and get the fight back to where he wanted. It was a major safety net he needed in that fight. Costa does not typically have one-punch knockouts, he swarms people and beats them down, but if he can hurt Rockhold without putting him fully out, it’s this safety net that could end up turning the fight on a 180-degree angle.

This is truly a fight that will be answering a load of questions. Rockhold’s chin will be a total unknown until we see him sustain some punishment from Costa, as will his look after the time off. Yet, if the two men come in at 100% and it comes down to skill, I give Luke Rockhold the edge due to his setups at kicking range and his potential takedowns and top control.

Pick: Luke Rockhold to win (+284 odds at MyBookie)

Michael Pounders

Costa is a brick house of a human being who has sledgehammers attached to his wrists and can kick like Thor cracks thunder. When he’s on, Costa is one of the most dangerous fighters in the entire UFC. He tends to be an aggressive counter striker who will stand in the center of the octagon, sometimes flat-footed and sometimes bouncing, while he jabs, feints, and snaps out cracking leg kicks with ease. His goal is to corner his opponent like prey where he can unload a devastating combination that almost always includes a rib-cracking kick and anvil of a right hand. Against more movement-focused fighters, Costa is happy to allow opponents to pressure him, he’ll take a shot, or several, and return fire. Despite being a power puncher, Costa lands with impressive accuracy and throws high volume.

However, he has shown long stretches of inactivity in the cage, often after a burst combination, where he stands still, absorbs shots, and tries to catch his breath. Like many successful counter punchers, though, this time spent recovering is not open season for his opponent because Costa can explode suddenly from a shell and land with a fight-ending combination. Costa is simply a dangerous and incredibly athletic power puncher with the ability to end the night in an instant. The recent criticism and likely cause for back-to-back losses have to deal with Costa’s mentality, not his ability. Costa barely struck in his championship fight and later claimed he was drunk. Then, in his fight with Vettori, Costa simply refused to make weight and offered a catchweight fight instead. Both fights were clouded by strange narratives, but the bottom line is he lost both.

Rockhold surprised many when he accepted this fight. He has not fought since 2019, and many expected a retirement announcement. However, the former champion is not only fighting Saturday, he’s said he still wants another shot at the belt. Where Costa’s mentality is nebulous, Rockhold’s is clear. In the octagon, Rockhold has remained one of the most consistent fighters in recent memory. The southpaw has redwood trees for legs, kicks like a mule, has impressive submissions but minimal wrestling, and seems almost intent on ignoring striking defense. Rockhold tends to stand tall in the cage, keep his hands low, and look to punch from odd angles, often striking upward from below his opponent’s line of sight. His volume is lower, but his accuracy is pinpoint. Rockhold’s goal is to create an opening for his famous left body or head kick. Standing southpaw, Rockhold’s power leg is his left leg, and he knows how to weaponize it with the best to ever do it. Rockhold, even at 37, should be able to throw his left without much of a telegraph, just as he’s done his whole career.

But, also consistent throughout his whole career, Rockhold does not protect his chin, especially after throwing a leg kick. He’s been knocked out five times, the last two coming in his most recent fights. Athletic, powerful, and massive for the division, Rockhold’s offense took him to the gold, but his defense, or lack thereof, is the reason he lost it and has struggled since.

A popular narrative is that this fight comes down to which Costa shows up. Will we see the killer we saw against Romero, the “drunk on wine” Costa we saw against Adesanya, the “catch weight” Costa we saw against Vettori, or someone completely different? While I fully expect to see a top-notch version of Costa- lean, mean, and dangerous- even if an alter ego shows up, I think it’ll be enough to beat the once-great Rockhold. Rockhold hasn’t won a fight since 2017, has shown chin issues and an inability to raise his right hand, and is a pressure-forward enough fighter to force engagement. Costa will be too fast and too powerful. Look for some feeling out in round 1 and then Costa to catch Rockhold in round 2, possibly countering a Rockhold kick.

Pick: Paulo Costa to win by KO/TKO (-190 odds at BetUS)

Joe Pounders

Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa is an incredibly interesting case study. From a positive perspective, he is one of, if not, the most powerful middleweight strikers currently on the roster. Whether it be a massive overhand right hand or a mesmerizing body kick, Costa can land with ferocious ability.

Continually, he is a fast and confident striker. The former is key given power without speed is often non-threatening, but for him, the ability to throw with speed aids him in landing power accompanied with landing with even more damage given speed is highly correlated to damage. The latter of his additional ability – confidence – aids Costa with willing to throw with all-out power. Interestingly, a fighter throwing power shots with all-out confidence often stems from having an impressive ground game, but for Costa, he throws all-out power with confidence, knowing he can trust his chin if he foregoes defensive technique in the attempt to maximize damage. While getting hit on the feet is a concern, Costa, similarly to Marlon Vera, trusts that his chin will hold up long enough to allow him to eventually land a devasting finishing attack – 11 of his 13 wins coming from TKO/KO.

Being one of the most intimidating strikers in the middleweight division is a positive for Costa, but the negative originates from a non-fighting perspective. What I mean by this is that Costa has seemingly surrounded himself with the “wrong people.” While I am indeed an outsider looking in, it seems quite obvious that Costa has gone off the correct path after analyzing the several fiascos seen during his championship fight against Adesanya, as well as his most recent fight against Vettori.

In the Adesanya fight lead-up, there are beliefs that Costa drank too much wine the night before the fight, thus contributing to his horrible performance in the octagon – he didn’t throw a right hand in that fight. In the Vettori fight lead-up, Costa was massively out of shape, to the degree the UFC, Dana White, and the commission had to move the scheduled 185lb fight to take place as a light heavyweight – 205lb – matchup.

While the oddities of Costa lend concern, there are two main reasons to justify the belief that the “wrong people” are no longer a problem. The first is that while Costa was massively overweight last time out, he did fight well – stuffed takedowns from a strong wrestler and looked like his normal self on the feet. The second reason is that he looks to be in impeccable shape leading up to this fight. If both small pieces of evidence are indeed correlated to Costa removing himself from a bad group, then he should be back on track to contending for a belt, given the skills are there for him to successfully do so.

Luke Rockhold was, at one time, one of the most revered strikers in the UFC. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Rockhold is often able to maximize his ability on the feet, particularly with landing devastating attacks from his left side. Perhaps his most feared strike is his left head kick, as he is able to throw it with little to no telegraph, and it lands with massive power. Given his opponent, when standing orthodox, has to continually think about the head kick, it opens up further striking opportunities to have effective boxing.

Similar to Costa, Rockhold is able to throw his strikes with confidence, beyond his innate skills on the feet. For Rockhold, in particular, the ability to throw confident strikes originates from his comfort on the mat – 8 of his 16 wins have come by submission. While Rockhold understands top position is far better than the bottom, his grappling acumen allows him to have comfort throwing dangerous strikes, which may result in a scramble which he has the talent to win.

Being a strong striker with grappling acumen is a recipe to climb the ranks and contend for a belt, and Rockhold has shown the ability to successfully do so, given he was the UFC Middleweight champion back in 2015. The issue for him, however, is that his chin has, at times, failed him. Moreover, this issue has increasingly surfaced given he is climbing up there in age, and thus, his durability is further depleted – he has lost three of his last four by KO. So, Rockhold will need to prove that a 3-year layoff from his last fight allowed his chin issue to dissipate, and there is no better opponent to face to prove said point if he is able to last against one of the most powerful middleweight in the division, Paulo Costa.

If both fighters were in their respective primes, this fight would be a potential FOTY. With that said, Rockhold is about 7-10 years removed from his prime; thus, I fully expect the more youthful, powerful, and durable fighter in Costa to prove too much for Rockhold to handle. While Rockhold may look to be doing somewhat well early on in the fight, I expect Costa to find his effective range and eventually land a massive right hand that will put Rockhold to sleep.

Pick: Paulo Costa to win by TKO/KO (-190 odds at BetUS)

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Luke Rockhold claims Khamzat Chimaev turned down UFC middleweight main event fight https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/luke-rockhold-claims-khamzat-chimaev-turned-down-ufc-middleweight-main-event-fight/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/luke-rockhold-claims-khamzat-chimaev-turned-down-ufc-middleweight-main-event-fight/#respond Sat, 26 Jun 2021 12:04:33 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=33444 In this video, Patrick Auger, Ant Walker, and Drake Riggs discuss the news that Khamzat Chimaev apparently declined to fight Rockhold. It appears that Khamzat...

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In this video, Patrick Auger, Ant Walker, and Drake Riggs discuss the news that Khamzat Chimaev apparently declined to fight Rockhold.

It appears that Khamzat Chimaev turned down a fight with former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold.

Ariel Helwani revealed that Rockhold had informed him that Chimaev declined to fight the former champion on August 28 in a middleweight main event matchup. It is suggested that Chimaev has plans to stay at welterweight.

Rockhold is now looking to fight a top-ranked 185-pound fighter in his return to the division later this year.

Thanks for watching! Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Chris Weidman open to facing Luke Rockhold but wants tune-up fight first https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/chris-weidman-open-to-facing-luke-rockhold-but-wants-tune-up-fight-first/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/chris-weidman-open-to-facing-luke-rockhold-but-wants-tune-up-fight-first/#respond Sun, 29 Dec 2019 12:10:43 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=25681 Former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman has lost five of his last six fights, but he has no plans on calling it a day. Weidman...

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Former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman has lost five of his last six fights, but he has no plans on calling it a day.

Weidman was hoping to start a new chapter in his career when he made his light heavyweight debut against Dominick Reyes at UFC Boston in October. However, the fight ended the same way as all of his five career losses — by knockout.

With no intention of retiring, the attention now turns to who his next fight should be.

A rematch with Luke Rockhold would make sense, especially as they were initially scheduled to fight each other last year. Like Weidman, Rockhold has also endured a rough stretch, having been brutally knocked out in three of his last four fights.

A trilogy fight with Anderson Silva? Not so much. Weidman prefers Rockhold but only after having a tune-up fight first.

“Anderson Silva? No. They need to pay me crazy money to fight him,” Weidman said on the MMA and Beyond podcast. “That’s a no. I already beat him twice. Got nothing to gain from that unless it’s money.

“Rockhold, I’d like to fight him but not this next fight, I’ll take a tune-up fight. I still think he’s good. Obviously, people say he doesn’t have a chin anymore but they say that about me too. I still think he’s a tough opponent.”

Many have called for Weidman to have a tune-up fight and it appears he’s finally listening.

After all, despite his setbacks, the All-American hasn’t been losing to unranked opponents. He has been facing elite fighters for many years now.

“I haven’t had a tune-up fight in my career,” he added. “My last 11 or 12 guys are top five in the world. I’ve been [in] main events and on the main card since my first fight in the UFC.”

Should he come out on top in his tune-up fight — assuming he gets one — the plan would be to face Rockhold. But would it be at middleweight or light heavyweight? Weidman doesn’t really bother too much with the specifics.

“I don’t know, I don’t really care. I don’t care about that, to be honest.”

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Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold and James Vick: 3 reasons some fighters shouldn’t move up in weight https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/chris-weidman-luke-rockhold-and-james-vick-3-reasons-some-fighters-shouldnt-move-up-in-weight/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/chris-weidman-luke-rockhold-and-james-vick-3-reasons-some-fighters-shouldnt-move-up-in-weight/#respond Sun, 20 Oct 2019 15:25:17 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=23601 After one of the greatest UFC title reigns in history, Chris Weidman exited the middleweight division on a 1-4 skid. His foray into light heavyweight...

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After one of the greatest UFC title reigns in history, Chris Weidman exited the middleweight division on a 1-4 skid. His foray into light heavyweight made sense in that context; cutting less weight would let him take a better shot and put less strain on his aging body. But then Dominick Reyes crumpled Weidman with a single counter and sent him limp with a few lazy hammer fists.

And so Weidman joins a dubious list; fighters who moved up in weight only to do worse. In just the past few months, two other notable examples include Luke Rockhold (the man who took his title) and James Vick.

But why has this happened? You’d expect them to give up a strength advantage, but why are they getting slept?

Weight = Power

Imagine that your friend has a job waking up every day at 4 am and working for 8 hours. No matter how hard he tries, he can’t get enough sleep and he’s getting very sore and tense. When you express your concerns, he tells you that he got a new shift with the same pay! One where he gets to start at 10 am! But he works 10 hour days and has to do it barefoot.

What I’m trying to say is that the costs sometimes outweigh the benefits, even if the current situation sucks. Or in other words, it makes no difference if you can take a shot 20% better if the opponents are now hitting 30% harder.

Despite finishing 1-4 at middleweight, Weidman had a great chin. Both Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort caught him with tremendous shots that rattled him but didn’t drop him. Only Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza had truly KO’d him and they needed extraordinary blows to do so; Romero needed a flying knee counter and Souza broke him down with liver punches before countering him on his temple. Yet a single punch from Reyes dazed Weidman so much that he couldn’t even defend the hammer fists.

Rockhold’s boxing means he gets clipped, but he usually recovers fine. But the first glancing blow Blachowicz landed wobbled him badly. The power on up kicks are hard to judge, but Price’s legs are longer and heavier than most lightweights. One would expect it would hurt a lot more against your jaw.

Too little, too late

Compounding on the issue of increased power at heavier divisions is that some fighters move up weight as a last resort.

When Robert Whittaker moved to middleweight, he’d already lost four times. But aside from a single TKO against counter savant Stephen Thompson, Whittaker escaped without a lot of damage. He (correctly) figured he’d do better at middleweight and proactively made the move. He wasn’t forced to move because he suffered a string of rough losses. Weidman’s move came after a body-breaking and soul-crushing KO. Their physical conditions when they made the transition is leagues apart.

A 1-4 skid isn’t just hard on the body; it erodes the spirit.

With all due respect to Kelvin Gastelum (who took Israel Adesanya to five rounds), he’s not an ideal middleweight. His extraordinary cardio and work rate is offset by his diminutive height, reach and strength. And yet Weidman considered beating him in a close back and forth affair worth getting emotional over. He’d lost three straight fights all of which he’d arguably been leading, and it felt good to win again.

Which made his loss to Jacare so much tougher; he lost a fight he started out winning. That’s not a fighter who’s ready to take heavier punishment. Rockhold was countered twice over his right hand with left hooks for a pair of devastating KO losses. Even if Rockhold dedicated himself to improving his boxing, why test it against fighters who hit even harder? After you’ve suffered two bad KO losses?

Honestly, Vick’s case is just sad. Even before his fight against Price, Vick has suffered three terrifying KO losses. Yes, Niko Price’s up-kick caught him perfectly. But I think that after getting his consciousness severed cleanly multiple times, Vick’s brain didn’t have the fortitude to resist the up kick. If he’d moved to welterweight before the Justin Gaethje fight, it may have been a different story.

Size matters

The most immediate worry about moving up in weight is that your opposition will be larger than you. Considering the different heights and reaches, sparring partners can only help so much.

Consider Reyes, who stands 6-foot-4 with a 77-inch reach. He is Weidman’s tallest opponent and he only gave up an inch of reach. Weidman’s right-hand entry on Reyes against the fence wasn’t perfect by any means; he should’ve brought his right hand back to his chin or try to get back onto his rear foot instead of advancing with his guard down. But at middleweight, his opponents either felt his power or feared the takedown. But the tall, lengthy and powerful Reyes simply took a half step back and pasted his jaw.

Rockhold got away with poor defense due to his height and length, but Blachowicz nullified the latter with his 78-inch wingspan. David Branch also sports 78-inch reach, and he gave Rockhold fits in the opening salvos. When Rockhold cut to 185 pounds, he retained enough physical strength that he could physically outmaneuver fighters who went in on him. But at 205 pounds, he couldn’t do anything when he clinched. Blachowicz isn’t a middleweight trying to get healthy, but a legitimate light heavyweight.

The sad part is after these last series of losses, there’s nothing left for these fighters. Weidman’s brain and psyche is battered, and I don’t think he’ll cut back to middleweight after losing so many fights. Rockhold now openly contemplates retirement. And I’ve been saying James Vick needs to save himself from himself for a while now. A better weight cut did nothing for these men.

So if you want to move up in weight, do it. But don’t do it like these guys.

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Alexander Gustafsson ‘talking with UFC’ about return, wants Luke Rockhold fight https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/alexander-gustafsson-talking-with-ufc-about-return-wants-luke-rockhold-fight/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/alexander-gustafsson-talking-with-ufc-about-return-wants-luke-rockhold-fight/#respond Mon, 02 Sep 2019 16:31:58 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=21672 After losing to Anthony Smith in front of a home crowd in Stockholm, Sweden, Alexander Gustafsson left his gloves in the Octagon and announced his...

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After losing to Anthony Smith in front of a home crowd in Stockholm, Sweden, Alexander Gustafsson left his gloves in the Octagon and announced his retirement. Just three months later, “The Mauler” now says he is working on a potential comeback.

“I’m talking with the UFC, we are going back and forth,” Gustafsson told MMA Viking.

The three-time UFC light heavyweight title challenger suffered his second-straight loss the night Smith finished him by fourth-round rear-naked choke. Previously, he was stopped in the third round of his rematch with rival Jon Jones for the vacant title.

Gustafsson said the decision to retire immediately after his loss to Smith was an emotional one, which is why he’s pondering a return.

“It came quite fast,” Gustafsson said. “I was home for a couple days, and I had itching in my hands and wanted to get back and train.”

“The Mauler,” who has competed solely at light heavyweight throughout his 12-year career, says he currently weighs “about 240-245 pounds” after enjoying his time off with his family and not worrying about staying in fighting shape. He confirms that he is getting back into the routine of training at Allstars Training Center, however.

Though he retired in June, Gustafsson is currently the sixth-ranked light heavyweight in the UFC’s official rankings. But with two losses to the reigning champion Jones, he knows he’ll need to work his way back into the title picture if he’s serious about making another run.

Despite his talks with the UFC, Gustafsson said he will begin training without any set opponent for his return.

“I am in no man’s land,” Gustafsson said. “I just want to train and get into shape. Let’s see how it goes.”

In his training, “The Mauler” is trying to find out why he has recently struggled to transfer the fighter in the gym into the fighter in the Octagon when the cage door closes.

“We are trying to figure out what I do wrong in competitions,” Gustafsson said. “I felt so good before the last fight. Something is not right, and I need to fix it.

As for who an opponent he has in mind for his return, Gustafsson expressed interest in fighting another big name now in the light heavyweight division.

“A fight against Luke [Rockhold] would be a great way to come back,” Gustafsson said. “He is a tough guy, a legend.”

Rockhold made his 205-pound debut in July against Jan Blachowicz. He was knocked unconscious by Blachowicz in the second round of the bout, his second-straight loss by knockout and his fourth in his career.

The former middleweight champion is not currently ranked in the UFC’s light heavyweight division.

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Robert Whittaker believes left hook is key to defeating taller fighters like James Vick, Luke Rockhold https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/robert-whittaker-believes-left-hook-is-key-to-defeating-taller-fighters-like-james-vick-luke-rockhold/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/robert-whittaker-believes-left-hook-is-key-to-defeating-taller-fighters-like-james-vick-luke-rockhold/#respond Wed, 24 Jul 2019 12:34:02 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=19202 This past weekend at UFC San Antonio reiterated one thing for Robert Whittaker — a good left hook is the key to defeating a tall...

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This past weekend at UFC San Antonio reiterated one thing for Robert Whittaker — a good left hook is the key to defeating a tall fighter.

Dan Hooker returned to the win column with a left hook that dropped James Vick in their lightweight clash on the main card. Hooker proceeded to land follow-up shots before the referee called an end to the fight.

Vick is a huge lightweight standing at 6 feet 3 inches. So in theory, it would be hard for a traditional-sized 155er to land a knockout punch on him. And yet, Vick has been knocked out thrice in the UFC by smaller fighters.

Hooker is a tall lightweight himself, standing at six-foot-tall and with just a one-inch reach disadvantage to Vick. But because Vick regularly uses his height to lean back to try and parry strikes rather than keeping his hands up, he becomes susceptible to the left hook, which Hooker executed perfectly according to Whittaker:

“I thought he [Hooker] just read him,” Whittaker said on a recent episode of Grange TV. “He had an excellent gameplan going in. He knew that left hook, especially for the taller fighters, is going to be key, going to be money. James Vick is used to using his height to his advantage, much like a [Luke] Rockhold. With the shorter fighters, he leans back, uses his height as a defensive mechanism more than head movement.”


Rockhold, of course, has been knocked out twice in his career to left hooks, most recently to Jan Blachowicz at UFC 239 earlier this month. Vick, meanwhile, suffered his first defeat via knockout to Beneil Dariush which all started with a left hook that rocked him.

That left hook would be his downfall yet again and it wasn’t the first time he absorbed that strike on the night either:

“…He’d [Hooker] go in, throw the left, or throw the right to set up the left,” Whittaker explained. “Honestly, he threw like 20-30 left hooks in that first round. Not all of them landed but you could see he was aiming for it… James Vick, because he’s a tall fighter, he fights like a tall fighter. He leans back and tries to catch hands with his long arms. Keeps him out of range.

“But like I said, Hooker’s got the same amount of reach. So when Hooker came in with that right hand, James Vick went out to parry and then he feinted the right hand, left hook, boom. You could see Hooker’s left hook, the length of the arm, it’d come around like this and clipped him right on the chin. It was done. You could see, he was setting it up the whole fight.”

One could imagine Whittaker may try and employ the same gameplan on the 6-foot-4 Israel Adesanya when they meet at UFC 243. However, to his credit, “The Last Stylebender” generally tends to use head movement more than rely on his height.

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Is retirement is the next logical step for Luke Rockhold? https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/is-retirement-is-the-next-logical-step-for-luke-rockhold/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/is-retirement-is-the-next-logical-step-for-luke-rockhold/#comments Mon, 08 Jul 2019 15:34:06 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=18291 Amidst the record-breaking finish by Jorge Masvidal, the further expansion of Amanda Nunes’ legacy and the first split decision of Jon Jones’ career, Jan Blachowicz’s...

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Amidst the record-breaking finish by Jorge Masvidal, the further expansion of Amanda Nunes’ legacy and the first split decision of Jon Jones’ career, Jan Blachowicz’s emphatic knockout victory was overshadowed.

It’s easy to see why. Masvidal’s near decapitation Ben Askren alone is a once-in-a-lifetime moment that deserves to bask in the spotlight.

But in the second fight on UFC 239’s pay-per-view main card, we may have all witnessed the end of Luke Rockhold. The bruised, battered former middleweight champion stared lifelessly at the mat after suffering his second-straight knockout loss.

All of the hope for a boisterous debut at light heavyweight vanished as Blachowicz connected with a devastating left hand and followed it up with a few punches more to make the outcome clear: the clock on Rockhold’s career quite possibly just struck zero.

Luke Rockhold arrives on the scene

The former champion has had a full career by MMA standards.

Rockhold joined the UFC having already established himself as one of the world’s best fighters at 185 pounds. He came from an elite jiu-jitsu background as an IBJJF purple belt no-gi gold medalist.

Largely leaning on his ground game, Rockhold quickly rose from prospect to contender in Strikeforce. He signed with the organization after going 1-1 on the regional circuit, winning his debut by armbar before losing his second bout by first-round TKO.

Rockhold strung together a six-fight winning streak in Strikeforce’s middleweight division as the level of competition gradually increased as each fight passed. He then got his first shot at gold.

Taking on Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Rockhold went to the scorecards for the first time in his career. At age 26, he was crowned the Strikeforce middleweight champion with a unanimous decision victory.

Rockhold defended the belt twice, stopping Keith Jardine in the first round with strikes before defeating Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision. But after Strikeforce was shut down by Zuffa in 2013, the middleweight champion once again adopted the role of contender, this time in the UFC.

Luke Rockhold joins the fold in the UFC

Rockhold’s debut was a disappointing one. The speedier Vitor Belfort outclassed Rockhold on the feet before ending him in round one with a spinning headkick and subsequent ground and pound.

At the time, the result said more about Belfort than the UFC newcomer. Belfort made a statement in the fight, showing that he could still hang with the best fighters at the top of the weight class.

The 28-year-old Rockhold stumbled, but losing to a legend didn’t raise any red flags about the up-and-comer. He still had a shot at making a name for himself in the UFC’s middleweight division.

And that he did.

Rockhold proceeded to go on a four-fight tear against middleweight mainstays — Costas Philippou, Tim Boetsch, Michael Bisping, and Lyoto Machida — to solidify his title shot against then-champion Chris Weidman.

Weidman and Rockhold fought a close fight through two and a half rounds, but an ill-advised wheel kick spelled the end of the champion. Rockhold took Weidman down and unleashed his offense from the top, landing numerous elbows to bloody Weidman’s face.

The champion survived the third round, but the damage was done. Rockhold finished the fight in the fourth round, again reaching the pinnacle of his division; Rockhold was a UFC champion.

The beginning of the end

Rockhold’s reign wouldn’t last. His originally scheduled rematch with Weidman fell through after Weidman pulled out with an injury less than three weeks before the bout. In his place, the brash Brit Michael Bisping, whom Rockhold had submitted just a year and a half ago, stepped in to challenge for the title.

Bisping shocked the world with his first-round knockout over his rival. On the losing end of that historic upset was a flustered Rockhold. The fight was just the start of his plummet back down from the heights he’d once reached.

The fight brought on questions about Rockhold’s chin. Bisping was always known as a grinder and a volume puncher, so flattening Rockhold with a left hook came as quite the surprise.

Rockhold’s defense itself became an even larger issue, a problem that never went away. In previous fights, he was able to get away with sub-par striking defense. Rockhold would move backward in a straight line when pressured as well as keeping his hands low, but Bisping was able to capitalize it with a finish.

The loss wasn’t the end of the world for Rockhold though. He had a chance to bounce back and keep his name in the title picture, but first he had to get healthy. The 15-month layoff before his return against David Branch was the second-longest of his career, and it marked one of the first signs that Rockhold’s career was on the downswing.

In his return, Rockhold won by second-round TKO over Branch, but it wasn’t without a struggle on the feet. Once again, Rockhold was tagged while retreating with his hands down. Regardless, the win kept him at the top of the division and firmly in the title picture.

His first losing streak

The hard times weren’t eliminated by his win. Rockhold stayed healthy and was then scheduled for a crack at Robert Whittaker’s belt. When Whittaker was forced out, Rockhold accepted an interim middleweight title bout with Yoel Romero on short notice.

Romero missed weight, but Rockhold went on with the scheduled fight, as he would still win the belt at a shot at Whittaker if he defeated Romero. Rockhold was then knocked out in the third round of the fight.

What followed for the former champion was a hellish battle with injuries. His shin, which was covered by tape and a sleeve for his fight at UFC 239, required numerous surgeries and throttled multiple attempts to return to the cage.

When he was able to return, the move up to light heavyweight was supposed to be a rebirth of sorts.

The expectation was that a smaller weight cut to 205 pounds would fix the problems Rockhold faced at middleweight, most notably his chin. He looked muscular and healthy at the weigh-ins, reinforcing the idea that we were going to see a new fighter on Saturday.

That, of course, did not happen.

For the second fight in a row, Rockhold was on the receiving end of a brutal left hand that sat him down on impact. For the first time in his 12-year professional career, he is on a losing streak.

Luke Rockhold vs. Chris Weidman II

Now, the veteran has a huge decision to make.

If Rockhold makes an attempt at returning, possibly to just go out on a final win to close out his career, an old foe would be a good man to meet him.

The Weidman rematch has been scheduled numerous times since their first meeting, yet the two have never met in the Octagon a second time. Now that Weidman intends to fight at light heavyweight, the fight makes sense once again.

Weidman himself faced similar issues to Rockhold after their fight. He has competed just four times in the last three and a half years and sports a 1-3 record in those appearances. Along the way, injuries have plagued him.

For this fight to take place, Weidman must be willing to wait for Rockhold’s recovery.

In the UFC 239 post-fight press conference, UFC president Dana White revealed that Rockhold suffered a broken jaw, an injury that typically takes six weeks to come back from with surgery, but one that must be treated with caution for a significantly longer time before jumping into a training camp. At 34-years-old, his ability to return to a fully healthy form isn’t getting any better.

Rockhold’s most recent loss pushed him well out of the title picture for the time being. Defeating Blachowicz would’ve likely spring-boarded Rockhold into a title fight against Jon Jones.

Now that that obviously did not occur, the climb lengthened. Rockhold would need multiple wins over top competitors while also remaining healthy. In recent years, neither of those goals have been attainable for the former champion.

The alternative — and more easily attainable option — is retirement.

Retirement is calling

The UFC president urged Rockhold to consider retirement when he spoke to the media after UFC 239.

“I think Luke Rockhold should talk about hanging it up,” White said before going through the list of injuries Rockhold has dealt with over the past few years.

“He’s had a good career. He’s been a great fighter. I’d like to see him hang it up.”

While White has had his fair share of outlandish takes, this one is grounded in logic.

Rockhold has delivered a career worth remembering. He is one of just 10 fighters to hold the undisputed UFC middleweight belt. He produced a number of exciting fights and added big names to his resume in the process.

To make a comeback, Rockhold would have another uphill battle ahead of him. He still has very clear holes in his game. On top of getting back to full health, he’d need to make drastic strides in training in order to compete with the best fighters at 205 pounds.

The question Rockhold now has to answer is what does he want out of the sport?

Is it money? There’s more to be made outside of it while not getting punched in the face as a Ralph Lauren model.

Is it the hunger for battle? Possibly, but there are opportunities to compete outside of MMA, and as we all know, no one fights forever.

If it’s legacy fights and more titles that Rockhold is chasing, his time appears to be up.

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UFC 239 Video: Jan Błachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold play-by-play, live updates, result https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-239-jan-blachowicz-vs-luke-rockhold-play-by-play-live-updates-result/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-239-jan-blachowicz-vs-luke-rockhold-play-by-play-live-updates-result/#respond Sun, 07 Jul 2019 02:24:36 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=18159 UFC 239 play-by-play for Jan Błachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold (16-4) makes...

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UFC 239 play-by-play for Jan Błachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold (16-4) makes his move up to the UFC light heavyweight division at UFC 239. Rockhold is set to take on tough 205-pound contender Jan Błachowicz (23-8) in the second fight of the PPV main card.

Read on for our UFC 239 play-by-play and results for Błachowicz vs. Rockhold.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold play-by-play

Round one

Rockhold begins with a left high kick. He’s wearing a sleeve on his left shin and is looking huge for the light heavyweight division. Opens up with strikes and then shoots for a double-leg takedown. Blachowicz moves back to the cage. Rockhold has the left leg of Blachowicz laced up. He loses control of the leg and then starts to drag Blachowicz down to the mat. Blachowicz is trying to stand but Rockhold is keeping pressure on him against the cage. Blachowicz hits Rockhold with a hard elbow and is now pressing his forearm across Rockhold’s head. Slow start to the fight. Rockhold’s controlling the position but doing nothing with it.

Another big elbow lands for Blachowicz. He disengages from the clinch and lands again as they separate. Rockhold goes back to the left high kick. Rockhold goes after the lead leg of Blachowicz but it’s checked. Rockhold misses with a swift kick upstairs. Blachowicz heavy inside leg kick. Blachowicz advances with punches that miss but then connects with a left body kick. Blachowicz again checks a low kick of Rockhold. Rockhold spinning back kick to the body falls short. Front kick lands for Rockhold. Blachowicz crushes Rockhold with some heavy punches and then lands a head kick to the back of the head as the buzzer sounds. An intense ending to round one.

That first round goes to Jan Blachowicz. Defended Rockhold’s takedowns attempts and looked good when striking.

The Body Lock scores the first round 10-9 for Blachowicz.

Round two

Blachowicz opens up early and lands. He’s working the lead leg of Rockhold now. A straight right lands for Blachowicz. Rockhold trying to get his kicking game working, but he hasn’t landed cleanly yet. Rockhold presses Blachowicz to the cage again. They separate and Blachowicz connects with a huge left hand to the chin of Rockhold and he was out instantly. Rockhold’s head snaps back and Blachowicz finishes him off with some extra punches to make sure.

That’s a huge win for Blachowicz. That wasn’t just a sudden knockout finish. He was controlling all aspects of that fight.

Rockhold had no success with his grappling. He wasn’t able to get Blachowicz down to the mat. While standing, Blachowicz was defending Rockhold’s kicks and landing heavy punches of his own.

Jan Blachowicz def. Luke Rockhold via knockout (left punch) – R2, 1:39

UFC Fighters React to Blachowicz KO

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UFC 239 Predictions: Jan Błachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-239-predictions-jan-blachowicz-vs-luke-rockhold/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-239-predictions-jan-blachowicz-vs-luke-rockhold/#respond Mon, 01 Jul 2019 16:42:08 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=17832 After building a respectable winstreak through late 2017 and 2018, Jan Błachowicz’s hopes of getting the next title shot went up in smoke with an...

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After building a respectable winstreak through late 2017 and 2018, Jan Błachowicz’s hopes of getting the next title shot went up in smoke with an ill-advised rush at Thiago Santos. Still ranked just outside the top 5, Błachowicz could afford a misstep at a division as bereft of contenders as light heavyweight; however, two losses in a row would be far direr for his title hopes, especially considering that a few fighters around him in the rankings have the momentum for an eliminator (Anderson, Reyes). To stay in that conversation, he needs a win at UFC 239.

His opponent is Luke Rockhold, a possible shot-in-the-arm for a division on life support. In a sort of break from tradition, Rockhold’s move up to 205 wasn’t a result of being mediocre at 185 and hitting a dead end; while he’s off a few losses, Rockhold was one of the most dangerous middleweights on the planet and won the championship after a spectacular winstreak. With his body no longer able to comfortably make the grueling cut to 185, Rockhold has pulled the trigger on the move up, and a win over the #6 contender would be a great way to restart his run to the top.

Prince of Cieszyn

Jan Błachowicz has long been overlooked as a true light-heavyweight contender, mostly because of a few losses that contenders shouldn’t really have (Patrick Cummins and pre-contender Corey Anderson), but he’s made a few concrete improvements to be able to compete with the elite-adjacent at 205. In a division that has proven woefully stagnant, Błachowicz doesn’t need much momentum to get back in the talks as a potential challenger to Jones; in fact, one great win might do it, and Rockhold would probably qualify.

While even his previously less-refined skillset was enough to fluster top contender Alexander Gustafsson, Jan Błachowicz’s recent improvements have turned him into the best boxer at light-heavyweight (even before Gustafsson’s retirement). Previously, Błachowicz’s boxing was mostly the sort of shifting flurry that would seem to lend itself to being countered (and in his last fight, it did); Błachowicz would sprint forward alternating hooks and uppercuts, and it would work because there aren’t many great counterpunchers at the weight class.

With his more recent introduction of a jab into his game, Błachowicz doesn’t have to fully commit to an attack if he doesn’t want to; while his jab doesn’t set his flurries up particularly well, he can use it to land on an opponent pressing towards him and set up shots around the guard (as he did against Manuwa). For the most part, however, Błachowicz’s meaningful offensive work still largely comes in the blitz, and he’s offensively fine (although not noteworthy defensively) when he gets to the pocket.

The biggest issue for Błachowicz has generally been a lack of reliable takedown defense, which is what sunk him against Gustafsson. Błachowicz’s rushes can leave him with few options if his opponent changes levels reactively as he squares up in a shift, and his get-up game didn’t look good in the Gustafsson fight (where he played guard to no effect, for the most part). Błachowicz has leaned on his grappling in a few of his last fights, he’s a good top player (as he showed against Krylov), but as a whole, his strongest moments come on the feet.

Skyler

After his loss at the hands of Yoel Romero in February 2018, the public seems to have latched onto the notion that Rockhold has been conclusively figured out; between his massive upset knockout to Michael Bisping and his loss in Australia, as well as the trouble he had with Dave Branch, it seemed unlikely that he’d get back to the belt that he lost at UFC 199. Combined with a weight cut that seemed to grow more brutal on him with each fight, a move up was the obvious choice; where middleweight was top-heavy, light heavyweight was sparse, and any durability issues could possibly be ironed out by not dehydrating himself to death’s door on the day prior. The Blachowicz fight will serve as the first test of that notion, but also as a way for Rockhold to jump straight into contention with a win.

Rockhold doesn’t bring too many tools as a striker, even in his sort of fight, but he uses those tools to their full potential and he’s extremely potent offensively. Rockhold was a gigantic middleweight, which likely translates to being a well-sized light heavyweight, and his range plays a large part in his success as a striker; as a rangy southpaw, Rockhold can fairly easily hop back as his opponent chases him and punish charges with a backstepping right hook (which is by far Rockhold’s most polished punch, and definitely the one he throws the most). If his opponent is content to stand at range, Rockhold pushes forward behind a strong kicking arsenal off his rear leg. Rockhold has shown the straight-left to set up the left head kick at times (to convince his opponent to slip as the straight comes and lean into the head kick, or narrow their guard), but his more common setup is just the changeup between the body and head kick; Rockhold is an avid body kicker, and against orthodox opponents, he can back his opponent up and force them to circle into it (Philippou) and use the threat of the body kick to open up the head (Bisping 1).

Rockhold can win fights with just his striking, but his best asset is unquestionably his top game; Rockhold is not only as sound positionally as anyone on top and an extremely talented scrambler, his striking from on top is arguably the best in the promotion. Even if they survive to the end of the round (Weidman, Machida), the victims of Rockhold’s ground assault aren’t the same afterwards, but his lack of a dedicated wrestling skillset introduces some issues in accessing his A-game. Rockhold has a solid takedown from the bodylock, but he generally relies on his opponents either initiating the clinch themselves (Branch) to use it, and he otherwise just takes takedowns as they’re given to him (such as with catastrophic mistakes like Weidman’s spinning kick). Rockhold’s ideal scenario looks something like the Machida one, where he dropped his opponent with a check hook and brutalized him on top, but his lack of a system for getting fights to the ground means that his grappling isn’t used as much as it should be.

Rockhold depends heavily on giving ground as his defense, and while the fight against Romero showed a developing jab, his boxing is still quite underdeveloped past the check hook; this means that an opponent who can press into the pocket will give Rockhold serious issues, and the predictable check hook on the way in can serve as a liability if Rockhold’s opponent is expecting it. Dave Branch was able to duck under the hook he knew was coming when he pushed inside, which allowed him to flurry in the pocket as Rockhold backed to the fence and had no other pocket options, and Yoel Romero served as the best example of the limitations of his check hook; Romero pushed Rockhold back to the fence, double-jabbed in to trigger the hook, and countered with a left-straight inside it. Rockhold’s game isn’t cohesively-built and he does have a weak range, but taking advantage of that requires some craft on the part of a pocket boxer.

Conclusions and Capping

While “the best boxer at 205” should cause Rockhold issues in a broadly conceptual sense, Jan Błachowicz’s approach seems decidedly suboptimal for dealing with Luke. Błachowicz generally relies on the jab at range, which is difficult to leverage against a southpaw who keeps distance as long as Luke’s; not only are the applications of the jab totally different when the lead hand has to contend with the opponent’s lead shoulder, Blachowicz will need to close Rockhold down to find much use and will be conceding kicking range in the meantime.

Błachowicz’s flurries work well against fighters who aren’t comfortable on the counter, such as Gustafsson, but that sort of shifting on the front foot hurts him massively against capable counterpunchers; while Rockhold isn’t the most diverse in that respect, Błachowicz doesn’t put himself in position not to get check-hooked as he sprints forward, as the Santos finish showed.

In addition to Rockhold’s ground game (where Błachowicz isn’t particularly strong from the bottom), Błachowicz has no margin for error; while it’s entirely possible that Rockhold just whiffs on the check hook and runs into the fence to get beaten up, Błachowicz hasn’t shown the craft in closing distance to make it particularly probable.

Prediction: Rockhold via SUB2. This writer caps Rockhold at -170.

Read more UFC predictions.

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