Both Johnson and Estevam have their eyes set on the top 15 of the division and each has the well-rounded arsenal accompanied by elite size to reach ranked status in their UFC tenure.

However, a loss here may result in Johnson’s release from the UFC, and a loss for Estevam will halt all forward momentum he has established within his professional fight career, so each fighter has a lot at stake which makes for a greatly entertaining fight.

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Betting Odds

Rafael Estevam is priced as a slight -135 favorite over the UFC veteran, Charles Johnson, coming back as a +120 underdog.

• Rafael Estevam: -135 (BetUS)
• Charles Johnson: +120 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As stated in the introduction, Charles Johnson has elite physical attributes for the flyweight division, both in stature and in strength. The combination of height with strength is quite unique for this division, thus giving him the tools to present a significant problem for his opponents. This puzzle each opponent must overcome extends beyond size alone, as he is truly a well-rounded fighter.

Being well-rounded with the physical tools needed as a flyweight may seem like something is amiss given Johnson is just 2-3 in the UFC. This eery feeling is warranted, and the reason for this less-than-stellar record is due to Johnson not fighting to his potential. Specifically, Johnson struggles to chain together his strengths in the octagon, notably his heavy hands with underutilized offensive wrestling. The latter point may seem odd given he has been wrestled to defeat against Mokaev and Durden, but Johnson’s ability to get up off the mat and do well in scrambling situations rationalizes the statement that the grappling he has at his disposal is underutilized from an offensive perspective.

In this fight, Johnson is given another chance to leverage powerful striking against a predominate wrestling opponent. If Johnson can get his offense going at a quicker rate than he has traditionally shown, then he can establish himself as the aggressor in the octagon, which will then, allow him to dictate pace, distance, and most importantly, best equip himself to stuff takedowns. If he can establish himself as the aggressor early, then he has the fight tools at his disposal to secure the victory here.

As stated, Estevam is a predominate wrestler who will likely look to implement a proven path to victory laid out by Mokaev and Durden alike – repeatable takedowns. We saw him implement this gameplan in his DWCS fight, where he not only showcased good wrestling from an entry standpoint but also, good top control against a highly dangerous submission opponent. While Johnson will likely be a fighter who looks to get up off the mat once taken there contrary to fighting for a submission off the back, thus making him harder to control, the fight data shown by Estevam reasons that even if Johnson works himself up off the mat, Estevam has the skills to get it back down and work damage in top position.

The ability to finish fights, both by TKO and submissions, is a strong suit of Estevam. While this has not been done in the UFC, he too has elite size and strength parlayed with a tenacious, fight-ending attitude that reasons he will be dangerous from the moment the bout ensues. This will be critical here in this fight because if he allows Johnson to get his offense going with powerful strikes, then he will not be in a favorable position to secure a takedown against a good scrambler. But, if Estevam can establish his own striking, then he can be in the driver’s seat similar to what Mokaev showed against Johnson.

Fight Prediction

When it comes to DWCS fighters fighting their first bout in the UFC, I often elect to fade them. I do this given the respect I have for UFC tenured status accompanied by these fighters often being priced without value given many come-off fight-finishing bouts. In this bout, however, I see no reason to doubt Estevam’s ability to secure the victory as he has shown well in the grappling department whereas Johnson has lost due to the inability to win wrestling exchanges.

Moreover, Johnson often relies on himself being the larger, more powerful fighter, and while he is indeed both, Estevam can match the physical size and he too has power of his own. Because of similar regard for each’s striking ability accompanied by the expectation of Estevam winning the grappling exchanges, I am choosing to go with him here.

Bet: Estevam to win (-135 at BetUS)

The post Charles Johnson vs Rafael Estevam prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

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Betting Odds

The more proven former champion, Robert Whittaker, is a sizeable -380 favorite over the hungry prospect, Dricus Du Plessis, coming back as a +300 dog.

• Robert Whittaker: -380 (BetUS)
• Dricus Du Plessis: +300 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

There are a handful of fighters who are stated as “would-be champions” if it were not for the current champion in their respective division. The two notable fighters to fit this bill are Max “Blessed” Holloway and Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker. Both these fighters have been champions in the past, and while each has fallen short of beating the current champion – Israel Adesanya in the Middleweight division – they are perceived as the unequivocal top contender.

What makes Robert Whittaker so good is quite similar to the opponent who has Max Holloway’s number, that is, Alexander Volkanovski. Both men have sound grappling, and most importantly, a keen understanding of distance and timing on the feet that is seamlessly blended with elite speed and high fight intellect. For Whittaker in particular, he loves to throw a right-hand, left-hook combination that is followed by an arena-thumping kick, thrown to the leg, body, and/or head of his opponent. While simple in theory, the best of the best are able to make a basic combination into one that is truly devasting, and Whittaker has done that time in and time out, as he has dominated the middleweight division not named Adesanya.

Dominance over the middleweight division can be argued for Du Plessis as well, as he has finished four of his five UFC bouts, and all finishes besides one are against ranked-caliber opponents. Moreover, the way in which Du Plessis is able to dominate is a combination of striking and grappling success, thus making him a well-rounded opponent, similar to that of Whittaker.

The difference between Du Plessis and Whittaker does become stark when you analyze the way in which they dominate fights. Whereas Whittaker uses elite speed and technically sound movements, Du Plessis relies more on his physical ability, and this is not too surprising when you see just how strong he is from a body-frame standpoint. The benefit for Du Plessis with choosing to rest on his physical ability is that he is in his prime, and the power he has in his hands coupled with the ability to be heavy and strong in grappling makes him a proven problem. The issue though is that if he faces an opponent who can use technique in both striking and grappling to mitigate the physical advantage he has, then he can become stiff and slow down as the fight ensues.

We saw moments of this in the Brad Tavares fight, where Tavares was able to use sound technical ability to stuff all seven takedown attempts, and then, use basic boxing to find some success on the feet. And while Du Plessis was able to power through and find the win, the lone non-specialist, well-rounded ranked fighter that he fought showcased problematic areas for him brings doubt here as Whittaker is levels ahead of where Tavares is currently at, as such, will likely be able to mitigate the threat the same way, but extend his success once the threat is mitigated.

Prediction

Dricus Du Plessis is justifiably confident given his UFC success and is someone with legitimate power and a strong grappling game. These threats of striking power early coupled with an ability to potentially control the fight with grappling raise concern, but when you analyze the technical ability of Whittaker everywhere the fight takes place, then the concern becomes extremely mild.

Simply put, Whittaker has proven time in and time out to be leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the middleweight division with being 13-2 since 2014, and I expect this fight to be no different. Lack of difference comes into play with the recent track record of him going to decisive decision victories, so I am electing to go with him by decision once more at +195 odds.

Pick: Whittaker by decision (+195)

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The post Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis prediction | UFC 290 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both Romanov and Ivanov are ranked heavyweight fighters who have contending aspirations. In this bout, a win will re-enter themselves into the top 10 status, but with a loss, they face the threat of getting cut given the perpetual defeat. This high-stakes affair for ranked fighters is unique and will certainly result in an entertaining affair.

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Betting Odds

The commonality of styles accompanied by each having similar levels of success rationalizes the -110 price tag in each direction.

• Alexander Romanov: -140 (BetUS)
• Blagoy Ivanov: +110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Alexander Romanov was, not too long ago, touted as one of the most exciting heavyweight prospects on the roster. Beyond having an undefeated record, the style and dominance in the octagon of Romanov excited many fans, particularly because his style is the antithesis of so many, that is, wrestling over all else.

When Romanov is fighting his best, he shoots a tackle-like takedown early in the fight, controls his opponent, and inflicts devastating ground and pound. This style, of using a blitz, tackle tactic suits him coming in as heavy as possible come fight night, but, he has experimented with coming in light and agile in the past, and this experiment has cost him. So, I expect him to be heavy, but in shape, and if Romanov is that, then he can fight in his high-end prospect ways. If done, I do believe he will rinse and repeat the style of tackling his opponent and finishing it on the mat, but if he fails to secure an early takedown, he may need to strike to set up an angle for a shot, and the longer he strikes, the more susceptible he is with wearing damage and falling behind in the fight.

Placing importance in the grappling department is certainly important for Blagoy Ivanov as well. The difference though between him and Romanov is that where Romanov relies on athletic ability and natural strength to secure a blitz takedown, Ivanov prefers to grind his way to the ground. He does so often by pressuring his opponent the best he can, and then, getting the fight against the cage where he can slowly work his way to the ground. On paper, a pressure striker who prefers to grapple in the subpar grappling division that is the heavyweight division is highly successful, but the issue for Ivanov is that while he wants to pressure to close distance, he needs to do so through a hyper-cautious way given he is less than agile coupled with him not having the severe power threat his opponents often possess, thus making him have a cautious-pressure approach which is certainly an oxymoron.

In this fight, Ivanov will have a key advantage if he can pass the initial test of Romanov. That advantage is the ability to patiently and methodically land strikes on the feet and perform well against the cage. While the case, Ivanov will need to show the ability to stuff the unique takedowns of Romanov, and while Ivanov does have strong grappling defense, if he is tripped up and put on his back, the top game of Romanov will likely prove too much for him.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The way in which this fight will start will be largely dependent on how heavy Romanov comes into this fight. If light, I expect Romanov to strike from the outside, and then, Ivanov close distance and make this a fight against the cage. If heavy, I expect Romanov to blitz Ivanov with a tackle-like takedown. Trusting Romanov will come in heavy, I believe Romanov will indeed blitz Ivanov, and given the slow nature of Ivanov coupled with Romanov having good takedown offense early, I expect Romanov to get this fight to the mat and quickly inflict damage, which will either end the fight or allow him to find success later through a damaged Ivanov.

Pick: Romanov to win (-140 odds at BetUS)

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The post Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov prediction | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Belal Muhammad, riding an 8-fight win streak, is believed by many to be the justified championship contender right now, but rather than waiting patiently for an off-chance shot, he is taking matters into his own hands. Meanwhile, Gilbert Burns, having just fought less than one month ago, is living up to his nickname “Durinho”, meaning ‘tiny tough guy’, as he will fight any fighter at any notice.

With both Belal and Burns being title worthy, this fight will be one where the stakes are high, skill-level impressive, and simply, highly entertaining to watch! Watch Muhammad vs. Burns fight live on ESPN+ PPV this Saturday night (order now).

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Betting Odds

Having faced more title-level challengers in his tenure in the UFC, it is of little surprise to see Gilbert Burns as the slight -130 favorite over the surging Belal Muhammad.

• Gilbert Burns: -130 (MyBookie)
• Belal Muhammad: +102 (MyBookie)

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Breakdown

Belal Muhammad is one of, if not, the most intellectual fighters in the UFC. Similarly to Adesanya, Belal understands how to leverage his intellect once in the octagon, as he is someone who makes few mistakes, and most importantly, makes next to no forced errors whereby he elects to do x when y is the easier path to victory.

Often, for him, the easiest path to victory is through weaponizing his elite cardio through non-stop wrestling. This form of attack was on full display three fights ago, where Belal wrestled his way to victory against the respected Stephen Wonderboy Thompson – respected for both his elite striking and battle-tested takedown defense. Passing the striker test who also has grappling defense was a major milestone for Belal, and his two most recent fights were another big test for him with facing the well-rounded danger of Vincent Luque and elite grappler, Sean Brady. In both the Luque fight and Brady fight, Belal dictated the direction of the fight, where he successfully grappled Luque and decided to keep the fight standing against Brady. This ability to fight wherever he so chooses is an incredible talent, and while many believe the best direction of his fights is to wrestle and win in top position, Belal proved against Brady that he can not only have effective striking but also, striking that can finish the fight.

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Being a renowned grappler who has found significant success on the feet can be certainly applicable to Gilbert Burns. As a former World Jiu-Justu silver and gold medalist, Burns is a highly respectable and feared opponent to grapple with. This fear was on full display in the Khamzat Chimaev fight, as Chimaev seemingly did not want to enter the ground early in the fight with Burns, and while he has stated he should have trusted his wrestling to have success there, the mere fact that Chimaev had some semblance of hesitancy with doing so greatly illustrates the significant threat Burns is off of his back.

Knowing the threat he is off of his back, Burns fights with freedom on the feet, fully willing to overthrow a punch to entice a takedown by his opponent. This style is not all that unique for world-renowned submission specialists, but what is unique to Burns is the technical success he has formed throughout his long tenure in the UFC, as he is truly near elite there. Moreover, Burns, through his many UFC fights, has learned how to blend striking with offensive wrestling, as he is a very talented takedown artist which cannot be said for many submission-threat fighters. Because of this, Burns is now a well-rounded fighter with top 5 welterweight skills in striking, wrestling, and submissions. The positive consequence of this is being 7-2 since his return to the welterweight division back in 2019, with the lone losses coming at the hands of prime Karmu Usman and anticipated two-belt champion, Khamzat Chimaev — in both of those losses, Burns had a near finish against both.

Prediction and Betting Guide

While only Belal or Burns will get a win in this fight, you cannot go wrong backing either of these two fighters, both for this fight and any future bout. But when it comes to choosing the winner, several factors come to play. Notably, weighing the ability Belal can have with weaponizing elite cardio through non-stop pressure against the severe threat of Burns, both in physical acumen and war-type fight experience.

For me, the logical side of my brain says the striking differential will greatly favor Burns and I would be surprised to see him get significantly out-grappled by Belal. While this is the case, my gut says to trust the cardio and intellect of Belal to find a way to victory, as he has passed a variety of tests with flying colors.

So, weighing mind versus gut, the deciding factor for me is that Burns has lost to “wrestlers” in Usman and Chimaev while Belal has beat elite submission artists with power in Luque and Brady. Because of this, I am going Belal here, and because this fight will likely be razor thin if Belal is on the winning side, I am taking him by decision here.

Pick: Belal Muhammad by decision (+180)

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The post Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns prediction | UFC 288 appeared first on The Body Lock.

With Yadong’s striking prowess and Simon’s relentless wrestling, it’s an MMA chess match that’s got the odds-makers working overtime. Read on as we dissect this electrifying matchup, offering you the best betting tips and odds before the UFC Fight Night 223 main event.

Betting Odds

Ricky Simon’s the betting favorite at odds of -136. Song’s a slight underdog and can be found at + odds at some sites, including BetUS.

• Simon: -136 (BetUS)
• Song: +107 (BetUS)

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Fight Analysis

Song Yadong, an 11-fight UFC veteran, is still just 25 years old. The culmination of vast UFC experience with that of still being outside of the age range widely considered to be MMA prime is very unique. Beyond this uniqueness, it is quite scary to think that Yadong has still yet to hit his prime, as he is one of the most electrifying fighters in the bantamweight division with dwindling flaws in his fight game.

From a fight-strength perspective, Song Yadong has an elite striking arsenal built on the ability to blend lightning-quick punches with snapping power. Whether it is landing underrated calf kicks from the outside or using impressive footwork to get in range, land a lighting-fast boxing combination, and exit range before getting countered, Yadong can strike with the best of them.

While his offensive striking is sound, Yadong can get into trouble with falling in love with getting into a striking war, as he is more than willing to wear one to give one. Moreover, being a sound offensive striker, he has faced trouble in the past with getting grappled. This defensive grappling issue was far more prevalent in years past than in recent note, as he has fought far more pragmatically, and when in balance, he has more than sound wrestling to stuff takedowns. That newfound ability to confidently stuff takedowns, and in fact, successfully offensive wrestle talented grapplers will be at an all-time test for him in this fight, and if he can pass it, then his hands give him more than a chance to win.

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As referenced above, Ricky Simon is an incredible wrestler. Somewhat similarly to Merab Dvalishvili, Simon puts on a constant, in-your-face pressure that is relentless and cardio-depleting for his opponents to deal with. Moreover, Simon, just like Merab, will pursue the takedown over and over, thus making him a very consistent fighter in the octagon with a sustained path to victory.

The scary aspect of Simon’s fight game, beyond having unrelenting and talented wrestling, is the fact that he has serious power on the feet, and, understands how to leverage this power to exacerbate his wrestling success. Often, when a fighter uses overhand punches to get in close and wrestle, I coin them “wrestle boxers”, and Simon is not only befitting of this tag but perhaps, at the top of the wrestle-boxer mountain for all UFC fighters.

As one can presume when watching predominate wrestlers in the UFC, the flaw in Simon’s fight game is when his wrestling is not as effective as he would like. If the takedown is continually stalled, Simon lacks fluid, technical striking on the feet to defend against talented striking technicians. While the case, this simply does not come to fruition all that often, as he has implemented his will on his opponents, who, many, are very talented UFC fighters with sound grappling acumen; but for Simon, the technical wrestling coupled with unrelenting pressure and natural strength, he has been able to get fighters to the mat, and once there, he is very heavy and has good submissions as well as ground and pound.

Betting Tips

The best thing Song Yadong has going for him is training in Team Alpha Male. This gym is littered with impressive wrestlers, many of whom fight at his weight. Couple this with the fact he is already a good wrestler with talented striking, and he can certainly win this fight.

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While this is the case, I cannot go against the freight train that is Ricky Simon. Simon displayed an ability to implement his will in his last fight against the talented Jack Shore, as he completely dominated from start to finish. I expect him to do the same, but the degree of domination will likely be less given the talent of Yadong.

Ultimately, I anticipate this fight looking quite similar to Merab vs Petr Yan, whereby Merab used unrelenting cardio to disallow the uber-talented Yan to get anything going in that fight. Because of this, I am taking Simon, and because the price is more than bettable, I am taking him straight here.

Pick: Ricky Simon to win (-136 at BetUS)

Read more: Braeden Arbour’s Ricky Simon vs. Song Yadong prediction

The post Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon betting odds, tips appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both Brundage and Vieira have had up and down moments throughout their UFC tenure thus far, but the lone consistency in each of their fight game is the willingness to look for the finish, even if the consequence is getting finished themselves.

Because of this, this fight is likely a FOTN contender and certainly should not reach the judges’ scorecards.

Betting Odds

Rodolfo Vieira is a -230 favorite, with Brundage returning as a +180 underdog.

• Rodolfo Vieira: -230 (BetUS)
• Cody Brundage: +180 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Cody Brundage is an accomplished high school wrestler with a 128-22 record and a two-time NCAA DII qualifier. On paper, the success collegiate wrestlers have had in the UFC would warrant the belief that Brundage, being young and athletic, would weaponize wrestling and win with a consistent method of attack. While fair, the reality is that consistency in performance, both with outcome and method of attack, is far from attributable to Brundage, and is why he is 2-2 in the UFC thus far.

The negative to Brudnage’s game is inconsistency in performance, but the positive is him showing building blocks of future success, meaning, he has shown effective wrestling from the outside, and if he can learn to keep heavy top pressure and/or learn to land damage once hits the mat, then wins can begin to compile for him. But, the issue, beyond inconsistency, is a culmination of poor striking development with poor in-fight decisions.

The former of bad striking is not too surprising given his youth and background as a grappler, but the latter issue of in-fight decision-making is the root cause of inconsistency. Specifically, Brundage has forgone effective fight methods early in a fight to unnecessarily change tactics, and the consequence has been defeat. If he can clean up in-fight decision-making and/or develop defensively-sound striking, then Brundage can formulate a method of success and secure a win here.

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Fighting with consistency has plagued Rodolfo Vieira as well but in entirely different ways. Whereas Brundage has not accepted the rinse-repeat method of success needed to be implemented for compiling sustained success in the octagon, Vieira has no qualms whatsoever with fighting each fight on the mat and finding his way to victory through submissions. This affinity for finishing fights with submissions comes as no surprise given he is a world-renowned BJJ practitioner who is a four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion, seven-time Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion, two-time Pan American Champion, and an ADCC Submission World Champion.

Given the danger Vieira presents on the mat, his opponents often do anything and everything to keep the fight standing. For those who have sound takedown defense, they have had success with stuffing the early threat of Vieira with him having power-driven takedowns, and once done, they have success with piecing Vieira up on the feet. For those who have sub-par defense, Vieria has had the ability to use his natural strength to get it to the mat.

I want to emphasize that the technical ability Vieira has on the mat is leaps and bounds ahead of his technical ability to secure takedowns, and this lack of technical ability plagued him in the Anthony Hernandez fight, as Vieira gassed himself out and was actually finished by submission. This issue with consistently finding takedowns is the Achilles’ heel for him as he could win a significant number of fights if he had elite wrestling.

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What will be quite interesting for Vieira moving forward is if prioritizes fine-tuning his offensive wrestling to where he can then fight on the mat or if he will continue to develop his striking with the hopes of using the Oliveira method of success. This method at the most elementary level is throwing strikes with ill intentions knowing full well if a strike lands, the opponent will be in trouble, and if the strike doesn’t, then being off balance on a strike temps the opponent to land an easy takedown where they then can work for submission off their back. If Vieira chooses this way of fight development, the benefit is that he does have impressive power, but the pitfall is this style allows for a technician on the feet to piece him up and/or a powerful opponent to land a clean strike to win by KO. In this fight, Vieira does not have to worry about facing a technician on the feet nor elite power, so I expect him to throw haymaking blows in the attempt to find a finish and/or invite being taken to the mat.

Prediction and Betting Guide

On paper, in a fight where both men have inconsistencies in their game and each is developing their non-specific grappling skills, I would favor the fighter with better wrestling and likely better cardio, in this case, both Brundage. While that is the case, the stylistic fight for Vieira is simply tailor-made for his style, whereby he can confidently throw haymaking punches and can out-grapple – early – if need be.

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Because of this, I expect Vieira to find a finish in some capacity, and because I do not trust his cardio coupled with Brundage not having seen a second round in three fights, I am taking Vieira in round 1.

Pick: Rodolfo Vieira RD1 Finish (+135)

The post Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Betting Odds

Bill Algeo is a -185 favorite over TJ Brown.

• Bill Algeo: -185
• TJ Brown: +160

Fight Breakdown

Candidly, Bill Algeo is one of my favorite fighters on the roster. The reasoning for this is not due to belief in him being a future champion nor having the violent fight-ending ability, instead, the consistency that he displays in the octagon makes him someone I trust from a handicapping standpoint as well as a fighter I trust to deliver entertaining performances each time the octagon door closes.

Algeo’s consistency fight-over-fight is done by parlaying well-rounded ability with a pace and pressure that weaponizes cardio. Because of his cardio and output, Algeo puts himself in a position to win contrary to relying on fight-ending ability, i.e. Marlon Vera’s gameplan. While putting himself in a position, he has lost decisions and this is ultimately rooted in developing grappling, meaning, he has given up takedowns and has had to defend legitimate submission attempts once on the mat causing him to lose close fights. This issue is a particular concern when fighting someone as dangerous as TJ Brown is on the mat, however, Algeo has improved his takedown defense fight over the fight, and while he is certainly far from an elite wrestler, he is someone who can stuff takedowns and get up off the mat if indeed taken there. If kept off the mat, Algeo’s ability to land at a constant and frequent rate gives him a viable chance to not only win here in this spot but begin a climb to fighting for ranked contention.

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As stated, TJ Brown is a very dangerous opponent to contend with on the mat. Having earned 10 of his 17 professional wins by submission, Brown is more than comfortable on the mat, and most importantly, equally comfortable being in top or bottom position. This interest is important given Brown’s offensive wrestling is good but not elite of the elite — 56% success rate.

Knowing his danger on the mat, the question arises why many opponents have taken him there, and the answer to that is due to the style of fighting Brown uses on the feet. Meaning, Brown, who has impressive size and athletism, throws strikes with ill intentions and is more than willing to overextend on a right hand or throw a flying knee that leaves him off balance because he is more than willing to get taken to the mat from a defensive perspective, where he then can work his way to a submission finish. This freedom to throw every shot with max damage intention makes Brown extremely dangerous. While this is the case, if his opponent has comfort with evading threatening shots and remains standing, then a more technical opponent can land strikes cleanly against the less-than-superb defensive striker in Brown, and Algeo is just that type of opponent, thus making him equally as threatening opponent for Brown as Brown is for him.

Prediction

Both Brown and Algeo deserve a ton of respect and admiration for being very challenging, underrated fighters in the UFC. What makes each so interesting is the difference in styles, and while Brown may have the ability to find the finish, I believe the style of fight plays into Algeo’s favor far more than Brown. I believe this to be the case because of the improvement Algeo has had with his defensive grappling coupled with the fact he has the technical striking to nullify the power-pressure Brown uses to overwhelm fighters. Lastly, Algeo’s last fight, a loss, was to an opponent who presents the same style as Brown, and because of this, he can enter this fight with the knowledge and experience needed to pass the recently failed test. So, I am confidently taking Algeo here, and while he can land a variety of clean strikes to eventually find a late-round finish, the price of -160 makes it affordable to bet him straight in this matchup.

Pick: Algeo to win (-185)

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The post Bill Algeo vs TJ Brown Prediction | UFC ESPN 44 appeared first on The Body Lock.

His opponent, Gerald Meerschaert (35-15; 10-7 in the UFC), is excited to stunt the hype around Pyfer and showcase there are levels to the fight game.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

Joe Pyfer is a -200 favorite over Gerald Meerschaert.

• Joe Pyfer: -200 (MyBookie)
• Gerald Meerschaert: +154 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

“Be Joe Pyfer!” (Dana White) was used in the context of a DWCS night, where Dana White was quite frustrated with performances up until Joe Pyfer went out and landed a thunderous KO in round 2 that started with a left hook and ended with ground and pound strikes. While a KO finish is by no means abnormal for the fight game, particularly on DWCS, the notion of the right place, right time, greatly aided Joe Pyfer in getting media buzz around his performance and he capitalized on this buzz with another dominating performance in his first UFC fight.

Beyond hype alone, Joe Pyfer does have some serious skills, most notably his immense power. Additionally, Pyfer, training closely with the elite grappling welterweight, Sean Brady, is becoming far more comfortable on the mat. This comfort is far more rooted when he can dictate the grappling exchanges, as his massive strength and frame are far more suited to excel in the top position compared to being fluid and slick on the mat from his back. This lack of fluidity is also seen with his striking, as he is by no means a sexy sports car, instead, he strikes like a Ford F-150 would strike, that is, throw powerful blows, bypassing the need to be quick or fluid.

Lacking the ability to be fluid is not a concern for Gerald Meerschaert when it comes to grappling, as he is known for having a plethora of dangerous submissions that can be thrown up from any position. This ability allows Meerschaert to be more than comfortable with being taken down to the mat, as he will happily accept the danger of facing heavy ground and pound at the prospect of finding an angle, shifting his hips, and finding a submission finish – 27 of his 35 professional wins have come via submission.

The issue Meerschaert has faced is when he squares off against fighters who have power, comfort on the feet, and an ability to keep the fight standing if they so choose. The latter issue is a concern, as a grappler who struggles to secure a takedown – 37% TD accuracy – is one that relies too much on his opponent’s willingness to prompt a takedown shot. Because of this issue, Meerschaert is often forced to strike for a vast majority of the fight, and albeit his chin is far better than its reputation given he has only been KO’d 3 times as a professional, the inability to avoid thumping strikes often gets him down on the rounds, in turn, limits his path to victory. While hyper-critical, particularly for a fighter who has had to face many dangerous middleweight contenders over the years and one who has stuffed many prospect’s hopes, it is a concern, particularly in a fight where he faces someone as physically imposing as Joe Pyfer.

Prediction

This fight should not reach the judges’ scorecards. Pyfer, standing orthodox, facing Meerschaert, who predominately stands southpaw, will have a massive opening to find the mark with his powerful right hand. If he lands cleanly, I expect it to rock Meerschaert to the point it finishes him in one blow or will be TKO’d soon after.

But, if indeed Pyfer lands a right hand, and overly rushes to the mat, then I would not be shocked to see Meerschaert regather himself like the veteran he is, and then, find a submission from his back.

But, the likelihood of submitting someone as physically strong as Pyfer and someone who trains with one of the best submission artists and grapplers in the entire UFC in Sean Brady is far less likely than it is for Pyfer to land the right hand and work his way to a KO finish.

Because of this, I am electing to pick Pyfer here in this matchup, and him by KO at a -110 price is a very advantageous line to attack.

Pick: Joe Pyfer to win by knockout (-110)

The post Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer prediction | UFC 287 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Winning will be no easy task given his opponent, number 6 ranked, Rafael Fiziev (12-1; 6-1 in the UFC), is one of the most electrifying prospects who combines elite striking with an impressive ability to keep the fight standing.

Knowing Fiziev is a striker through and through coupled with the fact Gaethje enjoys a brawl more than just about anyone, the conclusion is that this bout should be a standing affair for however long it lasts, consequently, is a leading candidate for FOTN.

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Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev, riding a 6-fight win streak, is priced as a -238 favorite over Justin Gaethje, who comes back as a +180 underdog.

• Rafael Fiziev: -225 (MyBookie)
• Justin Gaethje: +180 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

The lightweight division is littered with dominant wrestlers. On paper, this fact would be of little concern for Justin Gaethje given his background as a 2-time high school state champion and D1 college wrestler. But, Gaethje has seemingly abandoned his wrestling credentials given his difficulty in this department against the elite of the elite. The consequence of doing so is obviously given he has lost championship-caliber fights to elite grapplers, but, the benefit is him turning into one of the most feared strikers to stand against given he is one of, if not the most, powerful punchers in the division.

Beyond having thunder in his fists, Gaethje uses a quick and snapping leg kick when at range, making him a complete striker given he can have success from distance, and if turned into an in-the-pocket fight, his elite power makes him a probable candidate to get the better of tight exchanges. This skill set makes him far more well-rounded in striking than his bar-like style gets credit for, and, when you add the fact he has KO’d a hyper-quick, kick-centric fighter in the recent past of Edson Barboza, his opponent here needs to recognize the threat that Gaethje is. If not, Gaethje can re-enter the winning circle, likely in fight-ending, thumping fashion.

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Rafael Fiziev is one of the most entertaining strikers in the entire UFC. His speed and precision with the variety of strikes thrown is a thing of beauty, and, he has had moments of matrix-like movements from a defensive perspective. This ability, to have a plethora of elite offensive strikes with a keen awareness to dodge damaging blows from a defensive perspective makes him one of the best strikers in the UFC.

Often, when a striker of Fiziev’s caliber enters the octagon, his opponent seeks to take him to the mat. The issue, for his opponents, is that he has a TD defense of 92% in the UFC, and, as shown in his last fight against the hyper-dangerous grappler of RDA, Fiziev can get up off the mat if somehow taken there. So, having the ability to stay on his feet gives him the advantage in his fights given the elite attributes he possesses in the striking department. The only concern Fiziev has mildly shown in his fights is lacking a significant positive gap in strike output for him compared to his opponent. While this is the case, particularly in a time of bad judging, he does win the striking battle from a visual perspective because he lands with clean, precise power, compared to his opponents landing mildly missed shots on him.

Prediction

When there is a fight between two high-end opponents with similar styles, something unexpected typically happens with regard to how the fight plays out. For this fight, I have complete confidence this bout will indeed be a standing affair, and knowing each opponent has strengths with fighting at range and close in the pocket, I have further confidence this will be a highly entertaining fight from start to finish.

Under the presumption this will be a standing affair, I am electing to back the favorite, Rafael Fiziev, to secure his 7th straight win. While I would not be surprised whatsoever if Gaethje lands one of his massive power shots to secure a victory, I trust the probability of victory is in Fiziev’s favor, as he has the far faster kicks, demonstrated ability to avoid power shots, and, has a plethora of fight-ending attacks that are thrown from a variety of angles that are often not seen, thus lands cleanly. The implied odds state that he has a 69% chance of winning, and given this stylistic matchup is simply perfect for Fiziev, I believe his chances are closer to the 75% range, so, there is 75 cent value in the ML price, as such, I am perfectly okay laying the -225 price tag on him on the ML.

Pick: Fiziev to win (-225)

The post Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev prediction | UFC 286 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Said Nurmagmodedov (17-2; 6-1 in the UFC) is riding a 4-fight win streak, having beat fringe ranked opponents in 3 of those 4 fights. His opponent here, Jonathan Martinez (17-4; 8-3 in the UFC) is also riding a 4-fight win streak coming into his fight, and, with significant confidence given his devastating finish over UFC veteran and fan favorite, Cub Swanson.

Both Said and Martinez are overlooked, dangerous fighters who have fight-ending capabilities wherever the fight goes, making this bout a likely candidate for FOTN and one where the winner certainly will get a ranked opponent next.

Said Nurmagomedov opened around a -200 favorite but has since climbed to -260 against Jonathan Martinez.

• Said Nurmagomedov: -260 (MyBookie)
• Jonathan Martinez: +200 (MyBookie)

Said Nurmagomedov, unrelated but friends to Khabib, resembles the style of the potential title-contending featherweight and training partner, Zabit Magomedsharipov. To understand this style is to first, comprehend that it is a strike-first mentality, and second, not understand the striking at all. Meaning, Said’s most dangerous weapon on the feet is his unpredictability.

Diving a bit deeper into the unorthodox striking of Said, he typically uses a heavy amount of kicks to all levels of his opponent as well as a plethora of spin-oriented attacks which is quite effective given his elite understanding of technique, distance, footwork, and most importantly, timing. Moreover, Said is able to throw a significant amount of spinning attacks given he has strong cardio and is extremely comfortable turning at the risk of getting taken down, knowing his strong grappling will allow him to cause a scramble, and once done, he will win the exchange.

This ability to win scrambles and implement effective grappling was needed in his last fight against the very underrated talent of Saidyokub Kakhramonov. In that fight, Said was got taken to the mat 5 times on 12 attempts and was looking like he was on his way to losing against the well-rounded and strong wrestling opponent of Kakhramonov. But, knowing his opponent would continue to shoot takedowns as the fight progressed, Said timed a scramble perfectly whereby he was able to get an angle and secure a difficult submission. The way in which Said went about winning this fight can be looked at as desperation by haters, but for someone who appreciates the breadth of MMA, it truly showcases how elite Said is, given he can be extremely dangerous against average strikers and equally dangerous to non-elite grapplers. Altogether, Said is a problem for almost everyone to go against and is someone that continues to get overlooked as one of the elite prospects in the division.

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Being overlooked in the hyper-talented bantamweight division can be applied to Jonathan Martinez as well. On the surface, much of the same reasoning why Said is a problem can be stated for Martinez, given he has dangerous attributes on the feet and has proven to have effective grappling when needed. Specifically, he has a devasting left leg kick out of the southpaw position, where he can land ear-numbing kicks to the body if his opponent mirrors the southpaw stance or will land damaging outside calf kicks if his opponent stands orthodox. What makes his kicking game so effective is not only the damage he lands with but also the combination of speed and timing, meaning, the moment his opponent is vulnerable to a kick, Martinez is locked and loaded to throw that kick.

As we have seen with other kick-focused fighters such as Giga Chikadze, many opponents want to crash the distance and make the striker grapple. If done against Martinez, he has shown that taking him down is no easy task, and if taken to the mat, he can get back to his feet. The issue is that while he has checked most boxes thus far, he has not had the same level of talent faced as the likes of Said and many of the other ranked-caliber fighters. This point of contention is not “fair” for him given he can only fight who he is told to fight, but when you add this point to the fact he has been taken to the mat and he has been hit cleanly, with damage, against average to above average strikers, then the perceived ceiling of his may be a fringe ranked level. With all that said, I am a massive fan of his style and would not be shocked if he continues to evolve given his young age, and if done, he does have the striking and demonstrated grappling to see a similar rise as the aforementioned Giga Chikadze.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Early in the fight, I expect it to look like a kickboxing bout. Jonathan Martinez will be more than happy to throw his left leg kick accompanied by a down-the-barrel left hand against the unorthodox Said; and, Said will be more than happy to utilize footwork, find angles, and land powerful strikes against the somewhat hittable Martinez.

But, the moment one finds success over the other, I do expect the fighter getting the lesser end of the exchanges to shoot a takedown, and this is will Said will truly separate because if he shoots, he has more than enough offensive wrestling to get the fight to the ground and win by mauling fashion, and if Martinez shoots, Said has the demonstrated submission ability to find a finish.

All in all, this fight is Said’s to take and I do expect him to look impressive in doing so whether it be a grinding, mauling fashion on the mat for all 15 minutes or a sudden submission victory.

Pick: Said Nurmagomedov Double Chance Sub/Dec (-170)

The post Said Nurmagomedov vs. Jonathan Martinez prediction | UFC Vegas 71 appeared first on The Body Lock.