The main event battle is a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship showdown between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira. Prochazka returns from injury and will attempt to reclaim the title. Pereira gets the opportunity to become a two-division champion in the UFC if he’s successful on the night.

Read on as we break down Prochazka vs. Pereira before sharing our predictions, picks, and best bets for this main event matchup.

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Prochazka vs Pereira betting odds

After Prochazka was available at odds of +120 for weeks, the betting lines have now tightened as it seems bets continue to come in on the former champion.

• Jiri Prochazka: -102 (BetUS)
• Alex Pereira: -128 (BetUS)

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Prochazka vs Pereira staff predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jiri Prochazka is synonymous with one word. “Unpredictable”. The man is an anomaly among professional athletes of all disciplines and treats himself more as a samurai-esk martial artist than a professional athlete in presentation and training method.

This has allowed him to develop a fight style built on unorthodox movement, rhythms and angles, he will make long strides, stepping through from a bladed stance, which typically would seem to take too long and expose the legs, however because it’s something that rarely people train to deal with he tends to get away with it and it allows him to make contact from spaces that fighters aren’t used to.

Being as unpredictable as possible is his asset in this fight, as Alex Periera with his wealth of experience, has honed in on textbook practices against the highest level of kickboxers and what you would expect of a high-level kickboxer.

However, the creativity on the side of Prochazka does also require him to have space to be creative. Alex Periera should look to shut that space down so it’s important that Prochazka can do something to cause hesitation. Although he is not someone who will look to maintain and attack a wrestling-based gameplan, feinting the takedown and trying to execute them early could potential at least slow Periera’s forward movement. The idea that overcommitting could lead him to a Prochazka level change is important.

As well, although we may not see too many takedowns from Prochazka, he should also have the scrambling and grappling advantage in general. It would be wise for him to use any wild striking exchanges to incite some kind of scramble that ends up on the mat. Although Periera’s grappling is improving he still demonstrates holes to be exploited, potentially giving up his back or being caught in smash positions where he is unable to work through his own transitions. Prochazka needs to mix everything to expose potential submission opportunities for the win.

On the side of Periera, shutting down space and putting Prochazka on the fence is a must. Periera does an excellent job of moving between his left hook and right calf kick. He does the latter in an unusual manner where he throws his hips back in order to land the kick at a shorter range while still maintaining tha heavy power. It also keeps him in range to follow up with the left hook on an unbalanced opponent.

Attacking Prochazka’s legs and body early on would disable his movement to some degree, and a fighter like Prochazka that tends to rely on intuitive movement needs his body to respond to that. The more Periera can chip away, the less effective that becomes, the less likely Prochazka can flow through with his creativity and the less likely he can produce the power within scrambles to hold Periera down.

Ultimately, Prochazka is unique enough to throw someone like Periera off of his game, but I think it’s Periera’s fight to win or lose. If the Brazilian can cause early damage to the body and legs and establish himself as the forward moving presence I think the tide vastly shifts in his favor for the rest of the fight.

The main thing after that is not leaving himself open if he does find Prochazka hurt. Prochazka is as dangerous as anyone when he is desperate and seems to be out and Periera has gotten overzealous before. The more disciplined he comes into this fight the better the outcome for him I believe.

Pick: Alex Periera to win (-128 at BetUS)

Michael Pounders

Jiri “BJD” Prochazka, much like his opponent, was thrust into the rankings early in his career and it didn’t take long- only 2 UFC fights- for him to win the 205 belt. Jiri has a fun and weird style that is uniquely his own and uniquely effective. On paper, Prochazka is wild, hittable, and an unrefined striker. But, fights aren’t won or lost on paper. In the cage, those attributes have presented more as explosive, durable, and powerful. When he’s on, which he has been in all 3 of his UFC fights and for most of his career, Prochaska’s skills are that of the latter and they are impressive.

He is willing to win a fight in anyway necessary and has the ability to do so more often than not. If an opponent wants a more methodical kickboxing match, Prochazka will still bring the aggression and pressure but is also capable of sitting back and picking his shots at a high rate of success.

Then, if an opponent wants to get in tight and make the match more like a fight, Prochazka is all too happy to oblige and will happily engage in a dirty boxing fight with elbows, knees, and, often, plenty of blood. No matter the style of fight, Jiri consistently brings aggression and pressure into the cage along with huge power and a durability that, while tested in all 3 of his fights, has yet to falter.

Alex “Poatan” Pereira may just be on the list of the 5 guys you want to bring with you in the back alley if things go wrong at the bar. He is enormous -even for 205- is an elite kickboxer, and has one punch, death touch type of power. Said simply, he is a baaaddd man who can and often does end fights in an instant. Since joining the UFC, Pereira has only lost to Adesanya, after knocking him out the fight before, and has only gone the distance twice.

Typically, his fights end the same way, with a check left hook from hell that drops and finishes his opponent in one shot. Pereira’s background is as an extremely high level kickboxer and his flexibility, speed, timing, precision, and effortless attacks have all translated well to the MMA world. Characteristically, Pereira fights methodically, using feints and traps to bait an opponent into being overaggressive and leaving an opening.

He accomplishes this by standing tall but on the balls of his feet so he can explode the moment and opening is created. Then, he’ll feint with knees, kicks, and hands to force his opponent to react or counter. His goal is for his opponent to reactively counter a feint which leaves an opening to the body or head which Pereira can punish. If an opponent is unwilling to play “Poatan’s” game, then we get to see cracking calf kicks and a heavy jab which Pereira uses to add some substance to his feints. Regardless of how he creates the opening, because of his experience, athleticism, and technique, Pereira rarely misses an opportunity to end the fight.

To me, this fight is about as close as a fight can get with a unique mix of unknown factors that only add to the intrigue and difficultly making a prediction. If Jiri and AP fought 10 times, I think they would go 5-5 with an entertaining mix of finishes and FOTNs. Because both men are so evenly matched on paper, this fight likely comes down to which man shows up as the better version of himself on Saturday night. If either fighter is even a little bit off, the other has the skillset and propensity for violence to end the fight emphatically.

In a fight like this, I typically side with the underdog, but the odds are near pick’em. So, let’s go another level deeper and look at the out-of-the-cage factors. Prochazka is returning for the first time following a nasty shoulder injury and no one, not even he himself, can confidently predict how the injury or Jiri’s mentality will hold up in real action. Aspinall returned to the cage following an ACL injury and got a knockout without ever being touched. Meanwhile, Dillashaw reinjured his shoulder early in his return fight and promptly lost. Injuries, rehab, and health are all unpredictable which is a tally against Prochazka.

Pereira, meanwhile, gassed out after an average-paced three-round fight in his 205 debut. If he doesn’t end this fight quickly or fix his cardio, Jiri should be able to pull away in rounds 3, 4, and 5. Both fighters have enormously high levels of skill and an ability to end the fight quickly. Both also have question marks ahead of the bout. For me, though, a cardio problem is more fixable than a shoulder injury is reliable.

I think there is a higher percentage chance that Prochazka isn’t 100% compared to Pereira gassing out again. It’s a razor-thin edge but in a fight as close as this one is, a razor-thin edge may be as good as it gets. I’ll tentatively back Pereira to touch gold for the second time in his UFC career.

Best Bet: Pereira to win (-128 at BetUS)

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The post Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira staff predictions & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Almeida, ranked #9, is set to face off against #10 ranked former title challenger Derrick Lewis in a five-round heavyweight main event. Almeida’s on an impressive six-fight win streak now and looks to continue his dominance in the division this weekend.

Read on for our Almeida vs Lewis fight predictions, breakdown, betting odds, picks and more.

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Almeida vs. Lewis Betting Odds

Derrick Lewis will enter the Octagon at UFC Fight Night 231 as a heavy underdog with odds of +375 up against Jailton Almeida who can be found at -550.

• Jailton Almeida: -550 (BetUS)
• Derrick Lewis: +375 (BetUS)

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Almeida vs. Lewis Fight Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jailton Almeida is a problem for anyone in the heavyweight division, but he does have a predictable approach that is very tried and true. In almost all of his fights he comes in with a left front kick high that forces his opponent’s weight back and exposes the hips and by extension the blast double that always follows. He drives the takedown into the cage, where he elevates and finishes, forcing his opponent to expose the back with his high passing game or mounting and beating them up with ground and pound until they give up the back anyway.

Derrick Lewis and Jailton Almeida are similar in height and reach but it is notable that while Lewis is one of the larger heavyweights in the division, Almeida spent a significant time in his career as low as welterweight. Lewis has also become known for his ability to explode and power his way from bottom position back to standing against arguably truer heavyweights than Almeida, who even still shifts between heavyweight and light heavyweight at times. It is likely that Almeida will have to consistently shoot and get mat returns much more than his previous opponents, and it’s whether he gets discouraged by this or is able to maintain the cycle and break down Lewis’ gas tank that could determine the outcome.

Keeping Lewis on the fence is a strong way of keeping contact when Lewis does work his way up so that Almeida can drop from the clinch and reshoot without giving Lewis the space to circle away or land his incredible power at range. Minimizing the opportunities by taking away this space is paramount as Lewis has shown fans that every second of the fight could be a potential KO sequence, even down to the fifth round.

The predictability of the kick to takedown combo of Almeida would lead me to believe that Lewis will be sitting back for the counter throughout the fight. He does a good job of finding the chin, and as he showed against another predictable grappler in Curtis Blaydes, he will punish level changes that are not set up with that slick uppercut. One of the ways in which Almeida can work effectively would be to mix up his targets, he is not the cleanest striker but he is explosive and fast, and while he favors the front kick high, it would serve him well to go to the body. Lewis has been susceptible to the mid section in the past, and the combination of body work and chain wrestling in conjunction is another way to wear him down.

I expect Almeida to win as long as he maintains his mental composure. Lewis is going to be a more experienced and more powerful opponent than Almeida has typically faced. If he is able to work his way out of positions, especially with his mass and presence it could be very disheartening for Almeida. Likewise, feeling the power of Lewis could very well be a different feeling, but if he sticks to his game and keeps moving and forcing Lewis to deal with his takedowns I do think Almeida has the skills to win. Considering the history of these two its difficult to see the fight going the distance as backed up by the -3000 odds. The big question is whether to pick Almeida by KO/TKO via ground and pound or to sink in a submission, but the combination of ground and pound before a submission is probably the most likely.

Pick: Jailton Almeida to win via submission (-125)

Michael Pounders

Self-proclaimed “Brazilian Khabib,” Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida is undefeated since joining the UFC in 2022. All 5 of his fights have ended in rounds 1 or 2 and all have featured his impressive wrestling and grappling skillset. Arguably undersized for the heavyweight division- Almeida has fought at 205 in the past- “Malhadinho” uses his hyper-athleticism, quick shot entries, and suffocating top game to get the fight down to the mat quickly and dominate once he does. While Almeida can strike enough to survive on the feet, the higher he climbs in the rankings, the more vulnerable he becomes in striking battles. His footwork, guard, and combinations are all visually impressive- seeing someone of his size move the way he can is always impressive- but concerningly basic. The longer he stands, the more danger he is in. Fortunately for Almeida fans, he knows what he does well and rarely wastes much time implementing his game plan. Almeida stands only as long as it takes to find an opening for a takedown attempt. The instant he sees exposed hips or an ankle, Almeida shoots with lightning fast movement and gets the fight down. The only slight concern in Almeida’s entries is that he can sometimes shoot from too far away and leave himself exposed to catch something coming in as he shoots. Beyond that, his wrestling is elite. More impressively, though, is what Almeida does once he gets the mat, and the reason he likens himself to “The Eagle.” Almeida uses a proven method of handcuffing his opponent while grape vining legs to completely control his foe. Both of these strategies take an exceptional level of skill and strength to successfully apply which is why, despite the proven success, not all fighters are able to simultaneously control the wrists and legs. Almeida can and does. Once he gets ahold of the wrist and legs it’s only a matter of time before he sets up a submission or gets to mount and starts raining down hammer fists. Most of his opponents will have to play the child’s game, the floor is lava, if they want to find a way to beat the 32-year-old phenom turned contender.

Derick “The Black Beast” Lewis, now 38, showed he still has some tricks up his sleeve with a flying knee into punches knockout to end his last fight in :33. Lewis has historically, and accurately, been touted for his insane power, but the MMA community seems to be coming around on his speed and intelligence in the cage as well. Lewis has always carried bricks in his gloves and can end the fight in an instant. But, the way in which he finds his power shots is uniquely his own. Lewis is willing to “swang and bang” has he’s famously said, trading shots in the pocket until someone drops. He’s been willing to play opossum, baiting his opponent into over-extending so Lewis can counter with his own fight ending shot. He’s been willing to look for that one perfect shot, sacrificing rounds due to inactivity, to finally land his own uppercut from hell. And, most recently, Lewis was willing to sprint into a flying knee to start a fight. These choices should be seen less as antics and more as bold strategies. In each case, Lewis identified a path to victory and successfully implemented a winning game plan. However, the “bold” aspect of those strategies also needs to be analyzed. Because, when his plan fails, it tends to fail just as emphatically as it wows when it succeeds. His chin is starting to waiver after nearly a decade of UFC heavyweight fights and he seems to have hit his ceiling in the division. Additionally, the UFC heavyweight division seems to have passed him by in style and physique. Fighters are coming in lighter than ever before and relying on speed, an advantage Lewis often has over “old school fighters, and a full arsenal of weapons. In fights where Lewis knows the fight will likely be power vs power, he often has the edge in speed, athleticism, and game plan. But, against fighters who are more dynamic and varied, Lewis has struggled to win consistently.

This fight boils down to speed and fight IQ. Lewis, especially recently, has won fights on the back of his quick-twitch power. The power of the most decorated knockout artist is evident; but, the way he implements his power, through a deceptively fast strike, is what separates Lewis from other plodding power punchers. All 4 of his most recent wins, dating back to 2020, have come from an exciting and unexpected power shot that caught his opponent off guard and dropped him. Also, in all 4 of those fights, Lewis was the faster striker. Outside of one, in recent fights where Lewis did not have the speed advantage, he’s lost. Almeida will be the faster and far more athletic fighter in this fight, taking away Lewis’ relatively unrecognized x-factor. However, Lewis still has his craftiness. His crafty game plan was on full display in his last fight where Lewis went full Masvidal and landed a flying knee to start the fight. While he has a dry, understated, and often mimicked personality that sometimes leads people to overlook Lewis’ fight IQ, the success of his crafty and strategic antics speak for themselves. So, if Almeida doesn’t mind his P’s and Q’s, Lewis may be able to land something shocking. With all the credit given to Lewis’s power, speed, and fight IQ, I still confidently expect Almeida to win. Almeida’s athleticism, relentless wrestling, suffocating top game, and submission prowess all spell problems for “The Black Beast.” I expect Almeida to land a takedown after a few minutes of careful sparring; and, even if Lewis can get back to his feet using his patented “just get up” technique, I expect Almeida to be able to mat return the veteran. Look for Almeida to find the finish late in round 1 or early in round 2. I wouldn’t mind a play on both to cover my bases, but my best bet is Almeida to win in round 1.

Best Bet: Almeida to win in round 1 (-120)

Joe Pounders

Jailton Almeida, coined as the “Brazilian Khabib”, is a highly touted prospect with championship aspirations in the near future. Perhaps all that is needed to be known is he lives up to the “Brazilian Khabib” moniker when understanding the degree of talent Almeida coupled with how he fights, as he has high-end attributes with an unrelenting elite grappling attack, quite unique for the heavyweight division.

Heavyweight grapplers have had up-and-down moments as the style, as with any style, is more dangerous at the most powerful division of heavyweight compared to lower weight classes. A noteworthy case study is Sergey Spivak, as he looked sensational against Derrick Lewis, but in his last fight, failed to implement his bread and butter of wrestling and looked a tier below Ciryl Gane. The lesson of Spivak is twofold: one, wrestling can take you very far in the heavyweight division; and two, a more well-rounded attack and/or twitchier elite traits are needed to propel you into title contention.

When looking at Jailton Almeida, the wrestling game advancing him to top 10 status is apparent. The question then looms is if he has the striking game and/or special traits to advance him even further. For both, I say yes. In the striking department, Almeida moves with quickness as he comes in far lighter than his opponent come fight night. This quickness allows him to enter range, throw nice down-the-barrel punches, and either exit or chain his striking into wrestling. While the benefit of being a lighter heavyweight is quickness, the often inherent detriment, particularly for a grappler, is failure to physically dominate once a grappling opportunity surfaces against high-end competition; but for Almeida, his “special” is that he has an unnatural amount of strength combined with elite technique to successfully grapple bigger opponents. Because of this, I do believe he has title contention destined for his future.

Playing spoiler to perceived destiny is something Derrick Lewis is built for. His natural strength, large amount of experience, and insane power makes him a dangerous test for any up-and-coming fighter to pass. Moreover, the demonstrated ability to land perfectly timed shots, particularly against grapplers, makes him a very dangerous test for Almeida here.

Landing a perfect power shot is often the gameplan of Derrick Lewis, and to best do so he needs to keep the fight on the feet. The problem is that he looked lost last time fighting a sound grappler of Spivak, and Jailton Almedia is a faster, more explosive version of him. At this stage of his career, having quicker reactions to defend takedown attempts and/or develop additional skills to get up off the back if taken to the mat has likely passed Lewis by, so he will need to find a finish early here to negate any concern of getting taken to the mat.

Derrick Lewis is certainly an enigma come fight night. At times, he will come in heavy, and other times will try to shed weight to be a faster version of himself. Moreover, there have been instances of recent note where he looks to be perhaps over the hill, but then he will go out, as he did in his last fight, and showcase he still has plenty left in the tank. Regardless of the Lewis we get here, I am comfortable backing Almeida as his speed and technique, particularly with timing powerful takedown attempts, will be too much for Lewis to handle, and once on the mat, the discrepancy of Almeida’s top game versus Lewis’s bottom defense is far too wide for Almeida not to find a finish.

Betting Almeida by a finish is priced too high to play, because of this, I will choose him by round 1/2 submission because Almeida may be cautious early given Lewis has shown to time power shots quite well, but once the inevitable takedown occurs, the submission game of Almeida will be too much for Lewis to defend.

Bet: Almeida by Round 1/2 Submission

The post Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis predictions & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Volkanovski steps up on short notice to face the UFC lightweight champion after Charles Oliveira was forced to withdraw from the event. Makhachev gets a quick change in opponent but one that he’s familiar with after sharing the cage for five rounds in a fantastic back-and-forth battle at UFC 284 in February.

Read on for the latest betting odds, our staff predictions, fight analysis and breakdown, as well as our best bets for Makhachev vs Volkanovski.

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Betting Odds

Islam Makhachev enters the UFC 294 main event as a decent-sized betting favorite against Alexander Volkanovski, who provides underdog value at +200.

• Islam Makhachev: -250 (BetUS)
• Alexander Volkanovski: +200 (BetUS)

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Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Alexander Volkanovski is once again showing fans why he is dubbed “The Great” as he comes in on short notice to rematch the most difficult fight of his career. For Volkanovski, knowing that he is coming in on short notice a weight class up means he has to get started quickly and he has been open about this in the media. He is the quicker fighter with a wider variety of looks to offer Makhachev.

Volkanovski excels in traveling distance with his punches, and switching stance to create unique entries into the pocket, however while he had early success doing both of these, Makhachev got his reads eventually and will likely do so even quicker in a rematch.

Early in their first fight, Volkanovski rattled Makhachev with a step through left cross, Makhachev later adjusted by countering the step through with a check right hook. Likewise, the stance switch in the pocket gave Volkanovski his moments to land flush, but eventually Makhachev was able to consistently land the left cross on that same switch.

Volkanovski has to find a way to hide his usual favored entries. One way he can do so is switch often between finishing his combinations with the step through and low kicks, which he was able to land the few times he made that variance, he also had success stepping in and leading with the right body hook the two or three times he mixed them in. Ultimately, Volkanovski cannot get comfortable with any one technique he finds success with, Makhachev is too good at adjusting to consistencies in his opponents striking and making counters off of them.

For Makhachev, he knows he can afford to be patient. Where Volkanovski thrives in his activity, Makhachev does very well utilizing a smaller scale of weapons. In their opening round in their first fight, Volkanovski can be seen mixing up his footwork, feinting with his jab and showing the rear shoulder, flinching the back leg rise to fake kicks, while Makhachev stayed on the backfoot, fencing with the lead hand jab and hook looking and throwing the odd right body kick.

Where Volkavoski initially looks to set up his attacks, Makhachev sits back and makes reads for counters, and he can afford to sit back as long as he wants knowing he has prepared for five rounds where Volkanovski has not. One of the biggest adjustments that Makhachev made was allowing Volkanovski to crash into his clinch and eat knees when he would otherwise drive opponents back with his step through overhand. Makhachev’s ability to sit back on the outside but negate giving up ground when it mattered was huge. It causes pause on his opponent’s entries as the fight goes on, and Makhachev was also able to complete reactive level changes to Volkanovski’s pressure.

Early in the fight, Volkanovski turned his back to wall a walk on multiple occasions, providing Makhachev the opportunity to rack up control time early. Later in the fight, instead defending the top control with a butterfly hook in order to walk around to a sprawl position, showed Volkanovski can have success if he maintains facing Makhachev and dealing with his grappling head on, however, that was later in the fight when Makhachev was fatigued. I believe that early on, Makhachev will still have success banking grappling control, especially if Volkanovski rushes to give up his back attempting to get up.

Volkanovski has a big predicament. He has to put the pressure on early, coming off of a short-notice signing and recent surgery, however, he cannot overcommit so much that he plays into the counter-punching and reactive wrestling of Makhachev. Makhachev‘s style is built very well to make those who over-act pay for it, and while pushing that pace could work well for Volkanovski late given a camp, without the conditioning he would otherwise have, it’s a tough ask.

Pick: Islam Makhachev to win (-250 at BetUS)

Michael Pounders

The fight of the year favorite takes place at UFC 284. Pound for pound #1, Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski takes on the pound for pound #2 Islam Makhachev for the lightweight strap. Currently, Volkanovski is on a 22-fight win streak dating back to 2013 in the Australian Fighting Championship. In the UFC, Volk is undefeated, with four knockouts and eight decision wins. Not only has he dominated his division, Volk, scarily so, seems to have leveled up in his three most recent fights. Given he’s gone from elite to somehow more elite, him pursuing double-champ status seems like the natural next step for his legacy.

Meanwhile, Makhachev’s legacy began before many people even knew who he was. Makhachev is the protégé of Khabib Nurmagomedov, arguably the greatest fighter of all time. Unbelievably and humbly, Nurmagomedov himself claimed that Makhachev is the better grappler of the two and will hold the lightweight belt. The former is, unfortunately, unprovable unless Khabib comes back, and the latter is already true. Khabib is normally in Islam’s corner but has decided to step away from coaching. This will be Makhachev’s first UFC event without the possible GOAT at his side. Nevertheless, Makhachev’s utter dominance during his 11-fight winning streak, also undefeated in the UFC, suggests he will be more than capable regardless of his coaching corner.

To boil Volkanovski down in the simplest terms, he is one of the best strikers in the entire UFC with high-level offensive and defensive wrestling, cardio for days, and a will to win that seems unmatched. Recently, each of his skill sets seems to have improved. His hands are just a bit faster, his footwork just a bit more impactful, he is carrying more power, and his hunger has only grown. On the feet, Volk is a masterclass of MMA striking.

He has a cracking leg kick, which he uses at range often considering he is typically the shorter fighter. He moves with precision and explosion, using footwork and timing as weapons rather than just aspects of his game. He rarely throws a single shot at a time, instead able to string together unique and effective combinations. And, when he lands, he lands with accuracy and power.

The most impressive aspect of Volkanovski’s game, though, are his feints. Given that he is often the shorter fighter, Volk has developed a truly great way of entering striking range. He is able to feint so effectively that he draws out an ill-advised, ill-timed, or poorly thrown strike from his opponent. From here, rather than a simple counter, Volk slips his opponent’s strike, cuts an angle, gets to his preferred spot, and lands an open and impactful combination.

Few others are so seamlessly and consistently able to combine feints with footwork, timing, head movement, and combination striking. He is just that good. In the grappling department, an area that presumably will be tested, Volkanovski is also highly skilled. He is a stout fighter who uses his low center of gravity to get lower than opponents.

Then, he can drive his hips effectively to reverse positions on the cage or push off when he’s wrapped up. In the times that he’s hit the mat, Volkanovski has proven an ability to remain calm, work patiently through a tough position, and get back up through fundamentals and strength.

Islam Makhachev is often compared to Khabib because of their similar fight style and connection outside of the cage. However, he is his own fighter and his greatness is his own as well. Makhachev’s strength is his wrestling which might just be the best in the UFC. He is massive for the 155 division and is often the stronger fighter. Yet, his timing, skills, and speed are what separate him when wrestling. He is able to explode into takedowns regardless if he sets his shots up with strikes or not because his timing is next level.

Makhachev typically strikes with power because his goal is to get the fight down. If his power shots, which are still highly technical and rarely wild, miss, he is able to counter wrestle the counterstrikes that come his way. Similarly to how Volkanovski uses feints to set up counters, Makhachev uses power shots to set up counter wrestling. When an opponent raises their hands to defend his power shots or return their own fire, their hips are exposed.

Once Makhachev sees exposed hips, he’s like a shark to chum. He explodes with lighting fast feet, wrangles his opponent with elite form, and drives his hips forward with unmatched persistence until they hit the mat. If his opponent is able to survive by backing into the cage, Makhachev is just as happy because his cage wrestling is also one of the best in the entire UFC. Russian fighters, especially those from Dagestan seem to have a vice grip in their gloves. Makhachev is the poster child for this grip strength.

When an opponent is against the cage, Makhachev grips wrist, controls position, then either takes the back or looks for a trip. In either case, because of the famous “Dagestani handcuff” that Makhachev implements, his opponent is pinned between the cage and the most terrifying man at 155 pounds. Not an ideal place to be. Not matter his method, Makhachev looks to get the fight to the mat as soon as possible and rarely struggles to do so.

Once down, just like his mentor, Makhachev’s top position is grueling and suffocating. He drives the top half of his body into his opponent, forcing them to remain stuck in a compromising position or take an ill-advised risk trying to shrimp out. If they remain stuck, Makhachev rains down slicing elbows and ground & pound that often ends the fight. If his opponent tries to scramble, Makhachev quickly transitions for a submission and finds the finish that way. Put simply Makhachev has the best wrestling in the division, possibly the UFC, and has no issues finding the finish once it’s down on the mat.

This fight is going to be the highest-level fight of the year, even if it ends in round 1. That is how truly elite both fighters are. Volkanovski needs to be in the best shape of his life for this fight because I see his path to victory through unrelenting pressure. If he can continue moving, striking, and defensively grappling for 25 minutes, he can win a decision on the back of volume.

But, if he takes even a second for a break, gets caught against the cage even once, or mistimes even one strike, Makhachev will exploit the opening and get the fight down. I expect Volkanovski to touch Makhachev early and Makhachev to be cautious early on as he tries to get Volk’s timing. But, come the end of round 2 and into round 3, I think Makhachev will find an opening, get ahold of Volkanovski’s hips, get the fight down, and find a submission soon after.

Pick: Makhachev by submission (+275 at BetUS)

Joe Pounders

As Khabib said, if you are a champion, you should fight King Kong if he can make your weight class. That belief in championship mindset has come to fruition with Islam Makhachev saying yes to a short-notice change from Charles Oliveria to Alexander Volkanovksi. This belief in championship mindset coincides with absolute faith in himself, as Islam has full trust in himself that he can beat anyone he fights against, and his track record in the octagon is proof that this faith is highly warranted.

The reason why Islam is as good as he is is due to blending elite wrestling with vastly underrated striking. The wrestling game of Islam is highly known, and was even illustrated against Volkanovski during moments and even for an entire round, but so too was his striking game where he showcased solid southpaw striking with dangerous body kicks.

While the striking is there, against the elite striking opponent of Volk, Islam will likely need to show improved defense and/or improved cardio to keep up with the pace Volk will put forth. If he improves in either or if he leans on his wrestling more in this fight, then he should enter the octagon with full trust that he will leave as champion once again, perhaps for the final time in his career with retirement always rumored.

While Volkanovski lost the last fight against Islam Makhachev, many people in the MMA community scored it for him, myself included. While my scorecard means absolutely nothing in reality, the notion that some out there believed he beat what is thought to be an untouchable champion is important.

The importance of that is Volkanovski not only saw he could win, but he progressed each round of the fight with confidence, and that positive progression will allow him to enter the octagon with perhaps more confidence than what he had last fight. As many fight analysts state, a confident fighter is a dangerous fighter, and Volkanovski is unequivocally that.

The danger of Volk is similar to Islam but flipped whereby his elite attribute is striking with an underlying skill in grappling. The striking, similar to Islam’s wrestling, cannot go understated as Volk puts forth a pace and technical display that is unmatched and allows him to get up on scorecards throughout the duration of rounds.

While Volk favors his striking, he can certainly grapple, and perhaps the most important change in this fight compared to the last is that he not only felt the strength of Islam in their last fight, he found himself in an uncomfortable defensive position where he managed to escape, not with luck but with skill. Once escaped in his last fight, Volkanovksi flipped a confidence switch and at that moment, seemed to be a step ahead of Islam. If he can ride the momentum, then Volk can change the outcome of the fight here.

Candily, I am a fan of both fighters, and pains me to see one lose. Because of this biased lens in favor of each, I am forced to think logically contrary to trusting fandom alone. The logic of this fight, from a betting perspective, is going round 5 starts at even money given both men are elite everywhere and a finish will be quite hard to find.

But, if I were to choose a side to go with, I would elect to back the dog price of Alexander Volkanovski. This choice is rooted in the fact that in the first fight, while he trained with renowned grappler, Craig Jones, he did not feel the strength of the boogeyman-effect Islam has. But, having felt what it feels like to face the elite grappler of Islam, Volk can now fight with little hesitation, and a confident Volk is one I want to back.

Pick: Round 5 Starts (-110)

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The post UFC 294: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2 predictions, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

The five-round featherweight clash sees #11-ranked Yusuff defending his spot in the rankings against Barboza, who is ranked #13.

The event will take place this Saturday, October 14, at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Read on for our staff predictions, breakdowns, and best bets for this fight.

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Betting Odds

Sodiq Yusuff is currently a slight betting favorite as we approach the UFC Fight Night 230 main event.

• Edson Barboza: +140 (BetUS)
• Sodiq Yusuff: -170 (BetUS)

Yusuff vs. Barboza predictions

Braeden Arbour

Two very dangerous strikers match up when Edson Barboza takes on Sodiq Yussuf this Saturday, and this one promises to be fireworks. Both men are KO artists first and foremost, with one submission a piece at some point in their careers, Barboza early on and Yussuf in just his last fight. Yussuf’s March 2022 win over Alex Caceres was an impressive jump in competition, but although he won the fight, Barboza may be able to look back at the performance and take away some keys for himself. Caceres, like Barboza, is a dynamic striker from kickboxing range, and the general consensus for fighters matched up with either of them is to smother their space to work and get on the inside. Sodiq Yusseff may give Barboza some of the same looks he gave Caceres that night.

Sodiq Yussef was unable to reach Caceres with much success early on but made the adjustments to chain his duck under and wrestle the kickboxer, draining him of some energy and making it easier to strike in the pocket by the second round. He also invested in low kicks early. Both of these tactics would be smart to employ against Barboza, although as a more seasoned Muay Thai specialist, Barboza will have an answer, especially for the low kicks, and in turn has some of the most devastating low kicks in the UFC, himself. Barboza also has a particularly high takedown defense ratio, but it still stands that if Yussuf can get him to the cage and hang on him, he can force Barboza to work even if he cannot get him to the ground and hold him there.

For Barboza, angles are key. Yussuf carries a lot of power and confidence in that power in the way he moves into range. He has in the past shown a tendency to march in with his head staying on the same plane, and Barboza, being as technically sound as he is, could work off angles and fire back behind the big punches of Yussuf. Likewise, if Yussuf chases Barboza instead of cutting off the octagon, he may look to crash into a clinch and eat a knee to the body down the middle, I doubt that Yussuf will be level-changing into a knee, but the body could be exposed if he finds himself over compensating looking to find Barboza if Barboza stays on his bike with constant movement.

Both of these men are on the larger side for 145lbs, Barboza at one point being considered a relatively good-sized 155er. That, plus the nature of their powerful and explosive styles, both men have the potential to slow down. Yussuf has never gone five rounds, and Barboza has but once in a losing bid to Kevin Lee many years ago. That being said, I believe it would be detrimental for both men to shy away from their physical explosiveness and their usual style, instead employing tactics to more quickly wear out each other would be smart on both ends. Barboza has more experience at a high level, which although I do not think will aid him in being less tired, he may be more comfortable fighting tired in the latter rounds if it comes to it.

This is a very good matchup, and both men will have their moments. I do believe that Yussuf can work his way in at points and make it a much more uncomfortable striking match for Barboza, but he always runs the risk of eating something as he comes in squared up. I think that on a trajectory like his, the unusual speed of Barboza will be an early shock that he has to overcome before settling into the fight, and the fact that Yussuf has been tagged and hurt before rallying back with his own power does not bode well for him in a jump in competition against a striker like Barboza. The smartest bet on this fight would be for the fight to NOT go the distance at -250, but as an underdog, it’s more than not a good value to pick Barboza in a matchup of two KO artists. Bigger risk, but best value is Edson Barboza by KO/TKO for +210.

Pick: Edson Barboza to win by KO/TKO

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Michael Pounders

Sodiq “Super” Yusuff, simultaneously praised for his strategic rise to the #11 ranked featherweight yet criticized for his inactivity, is fighting for the first time in 2023. He’s stayed relevant, even grown in popularity, in the MMA community through his satirical UFC breakdowns. The following he’s gained from these videos has helped Yusuff with the fight for notoriety outside of the cage.

His fighting style, much like his strategy in picking fights, is sometimes inactive but undeniably effective. Yusuff has only lost twice in his career and once in the UFC. And, despite 3 finish wins, impressive striking differential, and hand speed, Yusuff has bouts of inactivity in the cage that allows lesser strikers opportunities to recover and counter.

But, as with his YouTube channel, Yusuff’s style has gained in popularity as of late. He’s shown an increased aggression in the cage without sacrificing his precise combinations and effective defense. Through his increased aggression, Yusuff has dealt more damage to his opponents, won through more convincing decisions, and, most recently, secured a finish win.

His game plan, though, has not changed much. Yusuff still tends to use cracking leg kicks at range while standing athletically with a high guard to encourage his opponents to crash distance. Once they crash distance, “Super” lands a lightning-fast and powerful combination that often includes several attacks to both the body and head. His counter-heavy style requires a dance partner to move into his trap. In those cases, Yusuff’s edge in speed, technique, and variety often leave him on the winning side. However, if an opponent can force Yusuff to fight out of rhythm, we’ve seen him struggle, clipped, and even dropped in fights.

Throughout his career, Edson Barboza has accumulated a litany of highlight reel knockouts that will likely go down as some of the best knockouts in the featherweight division. His unique combination of size, unreal athleticism, creativity on the feet, and willingness to attempt an unorthodox strike create situations where his opponent catches something clean and wakes up to a doctor while Barboza celebrates.

At 37, while he is undeniably slowing with age, his abilities on the feet are still prevalent. His style is electric, his attacks diversified, and his power still packs a punch. However, his reactions, his cardio, and his ability to land in pressure combinations are handicapped by his age and the wars in which he’s fought. Barboza used to be able to strike dynamically while athletically evading counter strikes.

Now, while his attacks are still dynamic, he’s a touch slow to react defensively and has been hit more cleanly and more often. Further, while Barboza’s size and speed allowed him to even attempt these dynamic strikes, his top-tier cardio allowed him to continue the high-energy movements throughout the fight. Once more, at 37, his cardio is less reliable and those high-energy movements more taxing. Finally, Barboza’s difficulties with pressure strikers have always caused him issues in the cage, and they still do now, just with more impact. To paraphrase a song, Barboza has moments where he’s as good as he once was and might be good, once, as he ever was. But, odds are, given his age, style, and mileage in the cage, the best of Barboza is likely in the past.

Prime versus prime, I’d take Barboza every day of the week. He is uniquely suited to match Yusuff’s typical edge in speed, technique, and striking variety while he has the added edge in wrestling, power, and range attacks. However, Barboza hasn’t been in his prime for a few years. While he earned yet another highlight reel knockout his last time out, recently, Barboza has been out-struck by lesser strikers. Further, Barboza’s speed and cardio have started to dwindle with age. Meanwhile, Yusuff has looked better than ever recently. I think the fight will be close early, Barboza may even win rounds 1 or 2. But, outside of an early knockout, I expect Yusuff’s youth, cardio, and consistency to propel him to a victory.

Best Bet: Yusuff to win (-165)

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The post Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza predictions | UFC Fight Night 230 appeared first on The Body Lock.

This five-round lightweight bout is the scheduled main event that also features ten other exciting fights.

If you’re looking for expert predictions on Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green as well as detailed breakdowns and best bets, you’re in the right place. Continue reading for all that and more.

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Dawson vs. Green Betting Odds

Grant Dawson enters as a heavy favorite for this five-round main event bout to the surprise of many, including our experts. Read on for our fight predictions and best bets for this fight.

• Grant Dawson: -485 (BetUS)
• Bobby Green: +360 (BetUS)

Dawson vs. Green Predictions

Michael Pounders

Grant “KGD” Dawson’s move to American Top Team coincides with his recent improvement in the cage. Prior to that move, Dawson floated between featherweight and lightweight while struggling to consistently implement his game plan. He struggled to beat an elderly Leonardo Santos, securing the victory with a TKO at the 4:59 mark of round 3 and then followed it up with a draw against Ricky Glenn, who also fights on this card.

Once “KGD” transitioned to a new camp, his skillset started to become more consistent. Dawson is a pressure grappler with improving striking and a relentlessness when hunting his opponent’s back. Dawson’s goal is to get the fight to the canvas as quickly as possible and hold his opponents down with his natural strength and wrestling fundamentals. Then, Dawson tends to land heavy ground and pound while maintaining top pressure.

Dawson puts his opponent into a difficult position when he gets on top. They can either accept the position and suffer Dawson’s damaging ground and pound. Or, if they try and get up, Dawson fluidly moves with his opponent and takes the back. Once on the back, Dawson looks for and often finds the rear naked choke quickly. His wrestling and grappling, especially since joining ATT is genuinely impressive. However, his striking is still a question mark as is his gas tank if he enters rounds 4 and 5.

Green, who has been a mainstay in the UFC for over a decade, has not really grown much as a fighter. That is not a criticism, rather, an impressive accomplishment to fight with the same style for 10 years so successfully. While Green’s UFC record, 11-9, is not impressive on paper, it is when context is considered. He lost as a late replacement to the now champion, Makhachev, and lost 2 decisions that many, myself included, had Green winning.

Considering the level of competition, his record looks much better at 13-6 if the late replacement fight didn’t happen and those narrow losses when Green’s way. However, the fact of the matter is, Green’s record is salty and part of the reason for that is his style. Green is an excellent boxer with lightning fast hands and impressive precision. But, one of the reasons for his striking success is also a reason for his close fights and tendency to lose on the scorecards: low hands and shoulder rolls.

Green carries his hands down by his knees which helps him land his combinations with accuracy since his strikes come from below his opponent’s eye line. But, since Green’s hands are down by his knees, he relies on head movement to avoid strikes and the famous Mayweather shoulder roll to absorb them. In the eyes of the judges, at times, it looks like Green is getting hit cleanly when he’s actually evading the strikes. More importantly, in this fight, is Green’s defensive grappling.

His low hands, wide stance, and natural athleticism help him stuff takedown attempts with impressive consistency. Despite facing strong wrestlers, Green’s takedown defense is still at 74%. However, if he is taken down, Green struggles to survive off his back. He tends to curl up, give up his back, and get finished if he hits the mat. He’ll likely need to keep this fight standing against Dawson.

I’m torn in this fight. On one hand, I’ve been waiting to fade Dawson as he gets closer or into the rankings. While he has three third-round finishes in his last five fights, I’ve been concerned about his cardio for a while. Dawson’s wrestling and striking look labored the later the fight goes and his pressure-heavy style does not appear replicable over five rounds. Moreover, his striking, albeit improved, is a liability against ranked level strikers.

However, since his move to American Top Team, Dawson’s grappling has leveled up and he appears more aware of his striking limitations- he looks to wrestle right away rather than waste time on the feet. Additionally, since Green’s payday as a late replacement for Islam Makhachev, Green’s motivation to be the best seems to have decreased. Instead, he seems more concerned with a fan-friendly fight that includes more showboating than normal.

In short, I don’t trust either of these fighters in a 5-round main event at this point in their career. Dawson should win this fight with regular takedowns and fairly easy back takes against the aging Green; who, despite his strong takedown defense, tends to give up his back when he hits the mat. But, if Green comes in motivated and can put Dawson on his back foot while using his uniquely low hands as natural underhooks, Green can push Dawson into deep waters and pull away late.

I think Dawson should be favored but don’t like the -450 number next to his name, his lack of experience and unreliable cardio give me pause in his first main event. I’d much rather find a +number to back in this fight. As far as +numbers go, there aren’t much better than +1000. Green to win by decision is currently +1000. That translates to 9% implied odds. I feel that is simply incorrect.

Both Green and Dawson are durable and have conflicting styles. If Green is to win this fight, I think a decision win, on the back of stuffing takedowns and landing a consistent jab, is the most likely path for him. Given that is his most likely path, I handicap Green by decision at better than a 9% chance of happening.

Best Bet: Green to win by decision (+1000)

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Joe Pounders

Grant Dawson is an underrated lightweight who continues to improve fight-over-fight. The rate of improvement has accelerated since his move to American Top Team, as he is now the 10th-ranked lightweight with his eyes set on the top echelon of the division.

Given his underrated nature, it comes to little surprise to note that while he is 8-0-1 in the UFC, he has yet to face the top of the division. While the case, a win over a fan-favorite of Bobby Green, particularly one that is convincing in a main event, will surely get him a top-tier fight, so I expect Dawson to be highly motivated and look better than he ever has.

If Dawson enters the octagon in improved form, I expect that improvement to come in the form of surprising striking as his grappling is known to be relentlessly effective already. Moreover, while the wrestling and mat game are his pillars of success, and have shown to be against touted grappling opponents, the style of Bobby Green may prove to be more challenging to successfully implement this traditional game. Because of these two things, first being the desire to showcase a well-rounded game, and second, an opponent forcing to show a well-rounded game, I fully anticipate the southpaw Dawson to use technical boxing to garner respect on the feet early, and then, use this boxing to work his way into his bread and butter of wrestling, mat control, and ultimately, submission attacks from top position.

Whereas Dawson is predominately a grappler with potentially improved striking, Bobby Green is a hyper-unique boxer. The uniqueness of Green’s attacks cannot go understated, as he will keep his hands extremely low throughout the duration of the fight. The benefit of doing so is the ability to throw quick punches that are not easily seen given the unique angles of attack. The potential pitfall is wearing damaging strikes given the lack of traditional defense. While the case, Green has extremely good head movement, a strong understanding of distance, and most importantly, comfort in his proven style to have surprisingly good striking defense.

The benefit of keeping his hands extremely low has another benefit beyond throwing punches from non-traditional angles, that is, is inherently ready to stuff takedown attempts — 73% for his UFC career. This benefit will be extremely important in this fight given the strong wrestling game of Dawson, and while Dawson may get the fight to the mat over a 5-round fight, the degree of effort will likely loom large. This effort loss is something that Green will likely count on in this fight because his style excels as the fight goes on given he strikes with output over power and can trust his cardio the entire duration of the fight. So, while Dawson may want to get the fight to get mat after showcasing early striking, Green will want to deplete the gas tank of Dawson, even if it is through a defensive lens in the early rounds of the fight.

Dawson being priced greater than a -400 is initially somewhat surprising, particularly with knowing Green has comfort fighting wrestlers. But, when you look into recent performances, the age of Green is beginning to show; inversely, Dawson looks to be just now entering his prime. This differential in career paths cannot be understated, as a prime Green would be priced far differently than it is here. But, because a prime Green is not fighting here, I am electing to back the surging prospect of Grant Dawson, and while Green can stuff takedowns and knows how to get up off the mat, I am trusting that Dawson will either show improved damage on the feet or, implement his tried and true grappling attack to eventually find himself in a controlled position on the mat where he then can find a finish.

Pick: Dawson to win inside the distance

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The post Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green predictions | UFC Fight Night 229 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The promotion heads back to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card with Fiziev and Gamrot set to battle for five rounds.

Before the event kicks off this weekend, make sure to catch up on the latest betting odds, as well as our detailed fight breakdowns, predictions, and betting tips for this fight and all other fight predictions here.

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Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev will enter this main event as the betting favorite with odds of -155 up against Mateusz Gamrot, who can be found as a slight underdog at +125.

• Mateusz Gamrot: +125 (BetUS)
• Rafael Fiziev: -155 (BetUS)

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Fiziev vs Gamrot predictions

Braeden Arbour

This is a very high level of MMA being showcased this Saturday. Both of these men push a high pace and take risks. Fiziev will obviously look to keep the fight standing and highlight his world-class muay thai, while Gamrot will be looking to mix things up and put Fiziev on the mat early.

Fiziev will have to deny the takedown consistently. He has 90% takedown defense thus far in the octagon, due to a number of factors. Fiziev is powerful and technical in his wrestling defense but even more importantly his management of range and space allow him to largely be in control of the striking dynamic. By extension, he makes it very difficult for his opponent to set any traps in order to capitalize on a takedown or find their timing to level change.

Fiziev is known for his power kicks, preferably for him the rear right kick from the conventional stance. A strike so powerful it garners respect from most opponents and forces them to react dramatically whenever he shows them the look. He does not telegraph the direction, hiding the target, whether the head, ribs or midsection, making it particularly difficult to read or block. This forces his opponents to largely shell up and defend, instead of looking for a counter as often as against others. Fiziev has a tricky combination, entering with the right kick to the switch step through the right cross, setting up a big left hook. Although his strikes are always fast and crisp, he allows himself to wind up on some power punches when he can freeze up his opponent with the threat of the kick or a stance switch.

Yet, while Fiziev’s distance control makes it difficult to time a good takedown, Gamrot rarely needs the perfect shot to enter. Gamrot has a takedown accuracy stat of just 30%, which is massively misleading. He is one of the best chain wrestlers in a division with many high level grapplers, and he will often look to shoot any initial level change just to make contact and then work from there.

Often, you will see Gamrot lull his opponent before going from 0-100, diving for an ankle, changing the angle and chaining on his next attempt to gain control. He will allow his opponents to create space while they scramble to expose the back, or build up another shot with full momentum.

This is why, although Fiziev has good technical anti-wrestling and range control, he will have to consistently be aware because Gamrot will look to shoot at unorthodox and technically inopportune times, knowing that on the third or forth transition in the sequence he can find his control position. Gamrot will take chokes if they are offered but typically specializes in isolating and snatching limbs for joint lock submissions.

This is a very good fight. If odds were even, I do like the chances of Fiziev making it awkward enough to shoot on him, that he finds Gamrot’s chin enough to hurt him badly. However as the underdog, Gamrot is a good value. Fiziev, while looking incredible in all his fights, dominance and wars, has not actually faced the kind of grappler that Gamrot represents. Yes, Fiziev has denied good grapplers, but the submission threat on top of the chain wrestling will be the biggest test so far for the Thai boxing expert.

Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot to win (+121)

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Michael Pounders

Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev, 30, lost a fight-of-the-year caliber match to Gaethje back in March, which brought his UFC record to 6-2. The #6 ranked lightweight is no stranger to fan-friendly fights, often putting on a show whether he wins via spinning wheel kick or loses by majority decision. No matter the outcome, Fiziev’s unique and video-game-like striking often results in violence.

Fiziev is as fast as lightning, as damaging as a jackhammer, and as dynamic as the controversial UFC striking updates. Hyperbole and jokes aside, Fiziev is one of the best Muay Thai strikers in the stacked lightweight division. He typically starts fast, pushing and pressuring forward early in the fight. Fiziev, using pressure, feints, and stance switching, looks to trap his opponent to create a stationary target.

As he’s pressuring and switching stances, Fiziev lands devastating body, head, and back-leg calf kicks. That back-leg calf kick represents how dynamic and athletic he is, few fighters have the speed and flexibility to land that kick with regularity. Once his opponents are trapped or decide to plant their feet, Fiziev really ramps up his volume. He looks for digs to the body, creative kicks to the head, or a simple but powerful 1-2 combination.

Beyond his elite striking, Fiziev is also a highly skilled defensive grappler. He has unique balance and ability to keep it standing, especially against single leg attempts where he can raise his taken leg up and bounce on his grounded leg. Fiziev’s killer body shots also result in natural underhooks which help him stuff take down attempts. Even though Fiziev often has the edge on the feet and many fighters have tried to take him down, he still holds a 90% takedown defense.

Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot, 32, began his career undefeated until he lost a split decision that he arguably won. This resulted in Gamrot often being considered the unsung contender of the division. Then, he fought the surging Arman Tsarukyan in a fight that went 25 insanely hard minutes and included some of the highest-level grappling exchanges and scrambling moments in any fight.

Since then, Gamrot lost a decision and won a controversial split. This has shifted his reputation from the unsung contender to someone who might be overrated. As with most things, I think the middle is more accurate. Gamrot is undeniably an excellent fighter with persistent and high-volume boxing who can weaponize pressure. He is also a strong wrestler and grappler who averages 4.5 takedown attempts per fight. “Gamer” only lands his takedowns at a 31% clip; but, once he gets fighters down, Gamrot is able to hold position well and land effective ground and pound while winning important minutes of rounds.

What Gamrot’s wrestling does that can’t be tracked by statistics is how it opens up his striking. Gamrot will regularly feint takedowns to get his opponents to react to the shot, leaving their chin exposed for Gamrot to land a quick combination. By keeping his opponent guessing, Gamrot is able to win round after round in fights. That coupled with his pressure and resilience often results in him winning close decisions with regularity.

This is a terrible stylistic matchup for Gamrot. Despite Strickland shocking the world by out-striking an elite kickboxer with his basic but persistent boxing; typically, once fighters are at a similarly high level, the more dynamic striker will win the exchanges on the feet.

There is no question that Fiziev’s Matrix-like Muay Thai far exceeds Gamrot’s boxing in terms of dynamism, speed, and damage. Moreover, I feel both Fiziev’s and Gamrot’s cardio tanks have been misrepresented in opposite directions. Fiziev often looks tried in the cage but tends to fight, even in the later rounds of a war, with explosive movements.

This indicates that, despite his outward fatigue, “Ataman” is able to push through the wall and succeed in deep waters. Meanwhile, outside of his stellar fight with Tsarukyan, Gamrot’s cardio has been reliable but not a weapon. He looked understandably slower in round 3 of both of his last fights. While I do expect Gamrot to have the better gas tank, I don’t expect him to be able to weaponize it in this fight.

Finally, I see Gamrot’s wrestling x-factor as a non-factor against the athletic, unbelievably well-balanced, and explosive Fiziev who, despite fighting strong grapplers in Diakiese, Moicano, and RDA, still holds a 90% takedown defense. Fiziev’s body work will serve as a natural underhook and his balance will help him stay upright when Gamrot looks for single leg attempts. In short, I respect Gamrot and think the line in this fight is appropriate; and, while I’m not making a substantial bet, I will be siding with Fiziev.

Best Bet: Fiziev to win (-155)

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Joe Pounders

Rafael Fiziev is one of the most entertaining strikers in the lightweight division, if not the entire UFC. Training out of Tiger Muay Thai, Fiziev has an excellent arsenal of attacks at his disposal, all of which are thrown with lightning speed and thumping power. Perhaps his best striking tool is his ability to find damaging body strikes, whether it be with a left hook that digs to the body or a leg kick thrown with zero telegraph in front. This striking tool will be a pivotal component to implement early on in this fight given his opponent has shown to be susceptible to wearing body strikes, so throwing the best strike against a weak point early will help Fiziev control the direction of the fight as it progresses, a pivotal component to success.

The other critical component of success in this fight is takedown defense. The longer the fight stays standing, the greater Fiziev can separate in a positive manner. The benefit, for him, is that he has impeccable takedown defense. But, if he somehow finds his way to his back whether it be a slip done when kicking or if Gamrot times a perfect takedown, getting up may be a fight-losing struggle.

Taking Fiziev to the mat is the likely gameplan of the impeccable wrestler, Mateusz Gamrot. His wrestling acumen approaches the top of MMA as he successfully wrestled elite of elite wrestlers, Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush (although lost the fight). In those fights, he had a combined 40 takedowns attempted which is an astronomical number but displays his relentless commitment to the grappling attack, and more importantly, the cardio needed to shoot that many takedowns.

In this fight, where Arman and Dariush were perhaps more willing to give up a takedown to create a scramble and/or trusted their ability to get up off the canvas, Fiziev will likely put all effort into stuffing takedowns, so while Gamrot has the track record of success against elite grapplers, he may find it more challenging here than anticipated.

If Gamrot cannot consistently find success wrestling Fiziev, the good thing for him is that he does have powerful striking. And, while some may state powerful striking cannot beat the elite technician that is Rafael Fiziev on the feet, there is a proven pathway to success shown by Justin Gaethje, a power striker in his own right. That blueprint is throwing leg kicks, landing power, and perhaps most importantly, showcasing no fear in standing toe-to-toe against the elite striker of Fiziev. Gamrot has the skills necessary to do the technical techniques Gaethje displayed, and he has shown the quote-on-quote dog in him, so if standing, it should be closer than perhaps expected.

The odds in this fight are spot on. Rafael Fiziev’s elite takedown defense, an electrifying arsenal of strikes, and lessons learned from the Justin Gaethje defeat warrant the slight favorite over a powerful, relentless wrestler of Mateusz Gamrot who holds wins over several dangerous lightweight contenders. So, when odds are this sharp, there is little value on the ML side. Because of this, I am electing to pick rounds prop of o3.5 rounds because Gamrot’s key to victory is by wrestling and depleting the cardio of Fiziev, and for Fiziev, his finishes typically come late in the fight if at all, so o3.5 presents value even at a price of -155.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 rounds (-155)

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The post Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot staff predictions | UFC Vegas 79 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Grasso stunned the mixed martial arts world when she submitted the long-reigning Shevchenko at UFC 285 in March. Despite entering that fight as a +750 underdog on some betting sites, Grasso prevailed after quickly taking the back of Shevchenko and submitting her with a face crank.

Now, Shevchenko gets a chance to reclaim the title in what promises to be an exciting main-event matchup. In this article, we’ll break down the fight in detail before providing predictions and best bets for the title fight rematch.

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Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 betting odds

The odds are far closer this time around, with the champion still set to enter as an +140 underdog against the challenger, who’s listed at -170.

• Alexa Grasso: +140 (BetUS)
• Valentina Shevchenko: -170 (BetUS)

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Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 predictions

Read our staff predictions and breakdowns before Noche UFC and the UFC Fight Night 227 card.

Braeden Arbour

As in any rematch of this caliber, it will largely depend on what adjustments the two can make after having truly felt the speed, timing and power of one another the last time. In their first fight, it seemed as though Shevchenko was not prepared for the speed and power as well as Grasso’s ability to cover distance with her punches so well. Largely, this is also because Grasso kept Shevchenko guessing with deliberate movement, shifting away, plodding forward and hiding her entries between false starts. She also maintained good head movement in space and dipped to bait Shevchenko’s counters which ultimately froze the then-champion at times. That being said, while Grasso used crafty footwork and movement and proved quick and explosive, she didn’t stray too far away from basic boxing.

As a southpaw vs. Southpaw matchup, Shevchenko was unable to use her typical body kicks to high kick setups as she would in an opposite stance. When Grasso threw the left straight, Shevchenko did have success countering with the spinning backfist early but as time went on abandoned it. This may also be because Grasso did a good job using her jab to put Shevchenko on the cage before committing to the cross later on.

It is pretty much agreed upon that the finishing sequence was a major misjudgement on Shevchenko’s part to throw the spinning back kick at such close range to each other and the cage. Although Grasso won by submission, grappling would still seem to be the safest route to victory for Shevchenko. She had consistent success ducking under the boxing combinations of Grasso to the double leg takedown, but Grasso impressed with her ability to scramble and utilize her guard to keep moving and avoid strikes. More importantly, when Shevchenko got to positions she was unable to settle, the closest being a crucifix that never fully got locked in and a back take where she almost immediately lost the hooks.

Shevchenko’s bodylock takedowns may be more key to securing positions as it allows her to bypass the legs during the initial takedown, rather than landing in the guard as with a level change and having to move through Grasso’s knee shield, butterfly guard and closed guard as she had to early in the fight. The one case where she used the outside trip from bodylock against Grasso she landed in half guard, an inferior position to side control, mount or the back in terms of grappling but offers potentially better control of Grasso’s hips in MMA especially against a strong scrambler.

It’s also notable that Grasso made a significant gilloutine attempt nearing the end of the previous round to the finish, both her submission and closest attempt came off of scrambles, so it’s a massive difference for Shevchenko to attack takedowns that land her past the legs to begin with. It’s a competitive fight on the feet, I think there is more for Shevchenko to adjust over the course of the camp that will help bridge the success gap there.

On the mat I think Grasso was supremely prepared for how strong Shevchenko’s control positions are but getting to a point where she can be constantly on the offense is a big jump. The most likely scenario I believe is Shevchenko going back to the wrestling she had success with in their first encounter but by being a bit more patient and settling into half guard and other positions, and being satisfied with control first will make the difference.

Pick: Valentina Shevchenko to win (-170 at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

As I’ve done before with rematches, I’m going to spend less time breaking down the individual fighters and more time on the prediction analysis.

Grasso, the current champion of the flyweight division shocked the world as a _ underdog when she toppled the queen via 4th round submission. Grasso is a hardnosed and fundamental boxer who uses a reliable combination of technical striking and toughness to walk opponents down and land damage in tight. While her striking can be, at times, in accurate because she uses her strikes to push forward with pressure, her volume and strategy are refined. Additionally, her defense, which is ever-important because of her pressure-heavy style, is above average- 59%. While Grasso is not a frequent or particularly successful wrestler, if the fight does hit the mat, the champ is an adept scrambler, able to reverse positons well, and has a sneaky but successful submission game. The questions that surround Grasso, particularly given her rematch with Shevchenko are whether or not her pressure-forward style is replicable for 5 rounds without absorbing counters or being forced back. Additionally, whether Grasso’s 61% takedown defense and standup to the high-level wrestling of “Bullet.”

Shevchenko lost for only the 4th time and for the first time since 2017 when she tapped to a “face crank” submission back in March. Prior to that loss, Shevchenko was thought, by many, to be unbeatable against anyone not named Amanda Nunes. Her striking is elite, her wrestling extremely effective, and her speed, accuracy, cardio, mindset, and game plan and are all exceptional Shevchenko is a future hall of famer and one of the best to ever fight. Her positive attributes and abilities are well-known and documented. So, the more interesting and valuable analysis surrounds the very few negatives in her game. The only real concern is her age and tenure in MMA. At 35, Shevchenko is likely out of her prime and more prone to mistakes, like we saw in her first matchup against Grasso.

Considering so much of her game has been rooted in technique and strategy, even at an older age Shevchenko is extremely dangerous in the cage. But, if she does make a mistake, she has struggled to react and reverse the mistake as quickly or effectively as she did in her prime. We saw Shevchenko controlled on the mat and nearly beat 2 fights ago because her reactions to takedowns were a touch slow and her ability to get up from bottom position was less prominent. The same happened in “Bullet’s” fight with Grasso. While Shevchenko was likely winning the fight, she made one mistake, was unable to correct it fast enough, and lost the belt. At this level, even the smallest mistakes can result in losses; and, at 35, those mistakes have a higher chance of happening than when Valentina was in her prime.

With rematches becoming more common, handicappers are in a unique situation with analysis. On one hand, we have recent and relevant evidence for how these two fighters match up. On the other hand, the fighters have access to the same tape and can make significant changes in their approach, strategy, and game plan. So, while analysis is, in theory, more accurate, we must also leave space for a fighter coming in with major changes. Looking at the first fight, Shevchenko was very likely up 2 rounds to 1 entering the 4th. Round 1 was very close, Shevchenko only landing 2 more significant strikes than Grasso and Grasso technically getting :12 of control time without a takedown.

Then, Shevchenko pulled away with a similar successful wrestling and control time in rounds 2 and 3. But, in round 4, that offensive wrestling ending up being the reason she lost as Grasso was able to end up on top and get the submission win. Going into this fight, I expect Shevchenko to fight more passively. She lost via submission, in part, because she made a mistake. Grasso capitalized on that mistake; but, until that moment, Shevchenko was in control. So, I expect Valentina to do her best to avoid another catastrophic mistake. Meanwhile, I expect Grasso to increase her aggression and wrestling. On the feet, Grasso held her own but Shevchenko was a step ahead in accuracy and speed.

So, the bottom line for this fight, comes down to whether or not Grasso can successfully implement the game plan I’m predicting she’ll take: aggressive pressure and a larger focus on grappling. If that is, in fact, how this rematch goes, I think the fight will end up going to a decision. With Shevchenko being more cautious and Grasso trying to wrestle, which should end up in long clinch exchanges, I anticipate the clock draining and the judges making the final call.

Therefore, my best bet is over 4.5 rounds. However, for a pick on the winner, I’ll side with “and still.” I think, if the fight goes the way I broke down above, the forward pressure and clinch control of Grasso will be enough to sway the judges in a razor thin fight.

• Best Bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-160 at BetUS)
• Prediction: Grasso by decision (+350 at BetUS)

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The post Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2 predictions | UFC Fight Night 227 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The question on everyone’s mind is whether Strickland can defy the odds and dethrone one of the most dominant champions in recent history.

Will Adesanya’s technical prowess and striking acumen prove too much for Strickland, or will the challenger’s relentless pressure and unorthodox style create the perfect storm for an upset?

Dive into our expert analysis, betting odds, and predictions to get a clearer picture of this epic showdown.

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Betting Odds

Israel Adesanya’s a heavy favorite in the UFC 293 main event. For those who believe that an upset is on the cards, Strickland can be found at +425 odds.

Otherwise, there are decent odds on method of victory props on this fight, and you’ll find our writers suggesting some of these further below.

• Israel Adesanya: -650 (BetUS)
• Sean Strickland: +425 (BetUS)

Read on for our detailed fight breakdowns and predictions for this main event clash.

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Adesanya vs. Strickland predictions

Braeden Arbour

Sean Strickland has one of the most unusual striking styles at the top of the sport. He uses a very straight-legged, tall stance that does not allow much room for use of his rear leg, but it does allow him to constantly raise the front teep to create space and push his opponents backward. His odd use of a tight guard and the occasional switch to a philly like shell means he has to depend heavily on reaction time for defense, parrying punches rather than slipping or weaving inside shots.

He almost exclusively blocks, but this allows his opponents to draw out the guard to wherever they want and attack elsewhere. The best example of this is Alex Periera’s use of the straight body shots, to bring the guard down and set up the left hook, but as to why most fighters are unable to find the same success comes down to Strickland’s ability to bring infinite forward pressure.

His upright stance is very efficient in terms of not having to explode to move. He marches forward and uses his long job and cross as well as his lead leg to keep his opponents moving backwards. This takes off a lot of the sting from their shots, as well as makes it difficult to kick having to move backward. Strickland does a good job of cutting off the cage as his opponents fade trying to keep up with his gas tank, and opens up with nicer boxing combinations when he has them trapped and skirting the fence. In particular he has a nice left hook, right uppercut, left hook to right hook combinations to work around the guard as his opponents circle to Strickland’s left.

However, much of what Strickland does is technically an issue relative to what is textbook in striking arts. His combination of pressure, grit and workrate allow him to do so, as well as an acute comfortable fighting, that allows him to react naturally and make good timing and reads that would otherwise be difficult. Against the next level in guys like Periera and by extension Israel Adesanya, what he does becomes much much more difficult. The biggest key to Adesanya’s success will be space and low kicks. Strickland maintains a relatively balanced stance but because he extends on his jab, he opens himself up to the lead leg. Investing in the legs and body early will set Adesanya up to land cleanly upstairs at some point, and Stylebender is particularly good at landing low for the purpose of the question mark kick to straight right.

Strickland has to take risks to get inside. Against Periera, the octagon presence dissuaded some of this pressure that Adesanya maybe does not have himself, but between constant feints and a superb ability to roll with shots and counter on the cage, few are as dangerous to rush as the champion.

I expect Strickland to take these risks in order to build pressure and control the center of the octagon, but Adesanya makes it very difficult with footwork and long striking, including leg and body kicks. This leads to Strickland making more drastic movement in an attempt to break through which is what opens him up more dramatically to the counter-boxing and head kicks of Adesanya. Strickland does have wrestling and jiu-jitsu in his back pocket, he has a nice slip to double underhooks and outside trip takedown, but tactically, Strickland seems fairly one-dimensional in his approach and will not hunt for the takedown; instead finds it naturally if the opportunity arises.

Adesanya has tremendous takedown defense against the cage, struggles sometimes in space, but generally makes it difficult to close that distance if he can help it, so I do not expect Strickland to shoot unless he finds himself already clinched, probably already against the fence making it difficult. In the end, I think Strickland knows staying on the outside leads to a huge deficit on the scorecards and will take risks as he usually would and as he must, which is what opens him up to being finished. This is a finish-or-be-finished fight for the American and I heavily favor the champion.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya to win by stoppage (-105 at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya finally conquered his demons with a highlight reel finish over Alex Pereira back in April. Outside of Pereira, Adesanya has never lost at middleweight and has rarely faced any significant challenge. Whittaker and Gastelum gave him excellent fights but Izzy still won both by unanimous decision. Adesanya is a top 3, if not the #1, striker in the entire UFC. He is an elite kickboxer with unparalleled timing and accuracy.

He is dynamic on the feet and can land seemingly every strike imaginable from seemingly every position. Because he’s primarily a counter puncher who rarely puts himself in harm’s way, Adesanya has been criticized for being “boring” or not bringing the fight forward. But, much like Jon Jones in the past, Adesanya has the luxury of being the champion which puts the pressure and responsibility on the challenger to beat the champ. Izzy uses that circumstance to his advantage, happy to sit at range, evade strikes like he’s in the Matrix and counter with impeccable speed and timing for a full 25 minutes.

Adesanya has excellent cardio, striking, and intelligence; all of which combine to create a future hall of famer. The only situations in which we’ve seen Adesanya struggle are up a weight class against Blachowicz where Blachowicz was able to wrestle Izzy down and grind out minutes on top. The other situation came when Izzy was winning a fight against AP, got stung in the 5th, and then finished by possibly the most powerful middleweight. Outside of those instances, Adesanya has rarely struggled because his striking is levels above his opponents and his defensive grappling, when in his own weight class, is strong enough to keep the fight standing.

Strickland is a basic yet effective boxer. He stands upright with a high and closed guard, protecting his chin well. “Tarzan” has fantastic cardio which he uses to push a pace early and rack up damage late. His typical style is to walk forward, almost plodding with his stiff front leg, pump his jab out, and land with accuracy on his opponent.

Zombie-like in his approach, Strickland rarely lets his opponent breathe, instead being on them and pushing forward from the first to the final second. That constant pressure and defensive awareness- he defends 62% of strikes- makes him a pesky but undeniably effective striker. He regularly lands over 100 significant strikes in a fight and rarely receives much damage in return. When he is hit clean, Strickland, undeterred, absorbs the shot and keeps moving forward.

Also, while we haven’t seen it in a while, Strickland can mix in some wrestling and grappling to his boxing-heavy attack. Even the threat of a takedown or clinch gives his opponents another skillset to consider and opens up their chin for more of his volume. Strickland, though memorable on a microphone, often puts forth unmemorable fights. He fights with such a focus on the jab that he sometimes goes minutes without following it up with any power shots or combinations. He’s technically scoring, which helps him win decisions, but he’s often not dealing out real damage. Nevertheless, his pressure and technical boxing can be a challenge for overeager opponents or those with poor cardio.

Strickland’s personality and microphone skills coupled with Adesanya running out of worthy competitors is what set this fight up; it was not Strickland’s skill or recent fights. Strickland is 3-2 in his last 5 which only include 1 finish win over an unranked fighter.

While I am a fan of chaos and would be truly entertained with a Strickland win, the skill disparity between these two will be clear and evident on Saturday night. Izzy is too fast, too dynamic, too technical, and simply too good for Strickland to find much, if any, success. Strickland’s best attributes are his cardio, his jab, and his perpetual ability to move forward. But, as shown in both his losses, he struggles against creative strikers, speed, and fighters who can move laterally to counter his linear plodding.

I expect Adesanya to piece up Strickland’s lead leg early, counter the jab often, and work in some creative body and head kicks. Because Strickland has phenomenal cardio and Adesanya typically is content piecing opponents up for 25 minutes, I like the champ to take this to a wide and clear decision.

Best Bet: Adesanya to win by decision (+130 at BetUS)

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Joe Pounders

Israel Adesanya is one of the most intelligent, cerebral fighters to have stepped foot in the octagon. His mental tactics and ability to understand fighter tendencies is a significant skill of his and has greatly contributed to him running rampant through the middleweight roster, with only Alex Pereira causing him issues.

Having the mental advantage accompanied by having elite technical ability on the feet affords Adesanya with knowing he will have the striking advantage over most, if not all challengers of his. Because of this, he prioritizes the maintenance of said advantage by maintaining distance and keeping the fight standing. The ability to do so time after time is why he has been so dominant throughout his UFC tenure. Moreover, his elite technical and sniper-like striking with all limbs is further contributory to his dominance. But, in the rare circumstance that his elite footwork, knowledge of distance, and/or ability to implement his vastly underrated grappling defense fails him, there is a demonstrable path to getting him to the mat to secure a victory, which only the former 205 champion, Jan Blachowicz, was able to do.

Implementing the Jan Blachowicz path to victory, which is to trust striking but ultimately wrestle, is the perceived path to success for Sean Strickland. There are two massive issues with this perception: first, Sean Strickland rarely fights the logical path, and second, Strickland’s grappling acumen is far better from a defensive perspective than it is offensive as he too is more of a striker than a true wrestler. So, with both these points at play, it is more logical than not to expect Strickland to implement his rinse-and-repeat style of heavy pressure favoring constant output over power.

This style is perhaps the worst to use against an Adesanya-type fighter, as the champion is his best self when his opponent comes forward and throws first. Moreover, the cardio-depleting tactic Strickland seeks will not work on Adesanya, so his normal advantage is null and void, thus creating a fight that, from a style perspective, is picture-perfect for Adesanya and one that is truly terrible for Strickland.

Prediction:

The UFC has historical fights where a challenger was given zero chance of winning but came out with a win by shocking the world. Because of this, I will not go as far as to say Sean Strickland has no chance in this fight because he is durable, battle-tested, and does have a well-equipped fight game. What I will say is that I have supreme confidence that Israel Adesanya will not only win but will look dominant in doing so. He will have the advantage in nearly all facets of MMA here, and the biggest advantage is his style of long-range counterstriking being perfect against a non-single punch power, pressure-style fighter that is Strickland. Because of this and because Adesanya lands with clean, effective strikes, I am confidently taking him by TKO/KO here.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya by TKO/KO (+110 at BetUS)

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The post Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland predictions | UFC 293 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Former interim UFC heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane will face off against Serghei Spivac in the main event. Before those two stand toe-to-toe, Manon Fiorot will meet Rose Namajunas in a women’s flyweight co-main event bout. You can read our Fiorot vs. Namajunas prediction here.

But now, let’s turn our attention to the five-round main event and take a closer look at the betting odds, as well as detailed fight analysis and breakdowns from our expert writers who also share their prediction and best bet for this heavyweight showdown.

Betting Odds

Gane, the former interim champ, enters this fight as the betting favorite with odds of -182 up against Spivac who is available as a +152 underdog.

• Ciryl Gane: -182 (BetUS)
• Serghei Spivac: +152 (BetUS)

Read on to find out who our experts are picking.

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Fight Prediction

Braeden Arbour

Ciryl Gane vs. Sergei Spivac is a great fight between the best technical striker in the division and whom I believe to be the dark horse of 265 lbs. Gane sticks out as one of those rare heavyweights that moves like a middleweight and really highlights how slow other heavyweights are in comparison. This is no different with Spivac, but instead of contesting these strengths of Gane, Spivac in his grappling strength especially, really encapsulates the power that makes heavyweight what it is. Ultimately this fight will be decided by whether Gane can force space and sting Spivac from the outside, or whether or not Spivac can get a hold of Gane and stay on him.

In order for Gane to maintain that range and execute this game plan, two types of strikes are paramount. His jab, as always is a main weapon, as it is not too committal, while Gane’s still does evident damage. His jab allows him to keep floating and work his way in and out of range quickly. As he gets Spivac raising the guard and planting to use head movement or sit on a counter, Gane needs to mix between his jab and low kicks to chip away at Spivac’s base. He does not need to sit down on big heavy shots, all he needs to do is sting Spivac and get him chasing Gane, so that the power comes from Spivac overextending into counters, where Gane also has the option of an escape route. To do this he has to maintain good circling movement and get Spivac entering with a lot of space through the center of the octagon so that Gane can continually move.

While Gane wants Spivac to chase, Spivac needs to avoid this at all costs. Gane’s accumulative power is no joke, but Spivac cannot give him too much respect. Those who are too cautious more than not find themselves snowballing behind on the scorecards against Gane’s tag-like striking. It’s a better trade-off to risk eating a few to get to Gane than to play his game and act too wary. Like Jon Jones before him, Spivac needs to shut down the space around Gane, and between feints and cutting off the octagon instead of chasing he can do so. What Spivac does so well is attack takedowns that immediately clears the guard upon impact with the mat. Double underhook trips, judo throws and waist lock drags put Spivac into positions where guard passing is not an issue. This leads well with Gane, as his distance management makes it much harder to shoot at his legs than tangle up with him against the fence. Furthermore, although Gane is by no means a great grappler, he has been able to drop on opportunistic submissions to surprise opponents or create space and get up albeit against lesser grapplers. He does not have this safety net opposite Spivac, and even if he did, the ability to transition so quickly from takedowns to mount or side control leaves little opportunity for Gane to roll for anything.

The best way to describe Spivac’s style is like a laundry rotation, compared first by Laura Sanko. Once Spivac gets a hold of his opponents, he may not immediately keep them down but as they get up he is already in a process of returning them to the mat and with each up and down cycle, he finds more success and they get weaker, until he can seamlessly dominate them. Gane has to be at his very best working on the outside and stay disciplined with that for 25 minutes. I believe Spivac has to get a hold of Gane once, making him a very valuable underdog.

Pick: Serghei Spivac to win (+152 odds at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

Once considered a near-perfect prospect turned heavyweight contender, Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane, 33, has dropped 2 of his last 3 fights. Prior to his recent losses, Gane was undefeated and running through his competition with relative ease. He’s a massive 6’5, 250-pound athlete who moves like a 170-pounder. His light-footed and bouncy footwork are rare for the division because moving around a frame as large as his takes, typically, significant effort.

However, Gane’s in-and-out movement, his speed, and the technical fluidity that which he moves is undeniably impressive. Beyond his athleticism and movement, Gane is an exceptional striker. With a Muay Thai and kickboxing style, Gane is able to switch stances when necessary and still land at a 59% clip with a more than 2x positive striking differential. Specifically, Gane lands 5 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.2 and defending 62% of the attacks coming his way.

Gane accomplishes such an impressive statistical feat because of his footwork, long and intelligent jab, and well-schooled kicking game. Typically, Gane takes his time in the octagon. He’ll fight methodically and will ramp up the volume and damage as the fight progresses. Early on, Gane is content playing a little cat and mouse. He’ll move forward behind a jab or front kick, read how his opponent responds, and catalogs that read for later.

Then, he’ll happily let his opponent move forward where Gane can use his footwork, reactions, and defense to avoid getting clipped clean as he again reads his opponent’s tendencies and logs them for later. This is most evident by his recent fights against Tuivasa and Lewis, two of the heaviest hitters in the division. In both fights, Gane took the fight into the 3rd round, landed double the amount of strikes in round 3 vs round 1, and found the finish. That is Gane’s ideal fight.

However, as seen in both of his losses, Gane does have an extremely unideal fight which possess a unique stylistic question in this matchup: wrestling. Gane’s striking is world class, his cardio is top notch, his patience and killer instinct combination is excellent, and he even has a decent submission game when on top. However, Gane was possibly exposed to have a massive gap in his defensive wrestling game by Francis Ngannou and then that exposure was exploited by Jon Jones. In both of those fights, Gane was taken down multiple times and controlled for extended periods of the fight. Most concerning, though, was the ease to which the fighters were able to get inside of Gane’s range and get him to the canvas. Once down, Gane had no answer for the top pressure of either fighter, and eventually lost both fights.

“The Polar Bear,” Sergey Spivac is 28 and surging into and up the rankings during his 3-fight winning streak. He’s finished all 3 opponents in that time; and, outside of a loss to Tom Aspinall, has finished 4 of his last 7 fights. Spivac a wrestler with suffocating top pressure, a relentless motor, and the ability to find the finish once the fight hits the mat.

Just like his opponent, Spivac is not your dad’s heavyweight. He is the cookie cutter 6’3 and 260 pounds; but, he moves with impressive speed and pushes a high pace with impressive cardio. While Gane moves like a 170’er, Spivac wrestles like one. He averages 5 takedowns per fight at a 65% success rate. Anyone wrestling that much in a MMA has reliable cardio; but, considering Spivac does so while caring 260 pounds of his own weight, it is all that more impressive. Spivac’s wrestling is well-schooled and varied. He has the fundamentals to land single and double leg takedowns, entering from range while timing his opponent’s movement or strike. He has the athleticism to catch a kick, trip the back leg, and torque his body to land on top. And, he has the strength clinch against the cage and drag his opponent down with sheer force.

No matter the location of the fight, Spivac is looking to get it down and often does so successfully. On the feet, though, Spivac’s striking and generously be described as “improved.” He tends to lunge into his punches, leave his chin exposed for counters, and land with minimal power. His footwork is linear, he tends to over-extended on his strikes, and can be off balance when he misses his target. Spivac has also been knocked out twice. And, while his chin is solid, any prolonged punishment or clean shot at this level and this weight class can shut the lights out. As always, Spivac will look to get the fight down and do so quickly.

This fight will likely make half of the gamblers look like geniuses and the other half like fools within the first few minutes. If Spivac can secure the early takedown, he should be able to finish Gane on the mat. Even if he doesn’t, if he can continue to get takedowns, Spivac will ragdoll “Bon Gamin” until he gets the stoppage or the final round ends. However, if Gane has improved his 45% takedown defense and can stuff the early attempts, then this fight could go very similarly to Spivac vs. Aspinall, where Spivac went 0-11 on significant strikes and couldn’t keep up with or catch the superior striker en route to a finish.

I’m expecting the latter to play out on Saturday. Gane has only lost to Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. He was out wrestled by Jones because Jones can out wrestle everyone and Gane simply wasn’t good enough. He lost to Ngannou because Ngannou’s wrestling was unexpected and the threat of the biggest power puncher in the world left Gane to still respect the striking of Francis and resulted in him being unable to swing freely and deter the wrestling. In this fight, Gane should be able to push forward, swing more aggressively, and strike as the hammer rather than the nail because Spivac is not a threat on the feet. I expect this forward pressure and volume to push Spivac back enough to help Gane defend the early takedowns. Then, as the fight enters round 2 or 3, I think Gane will find the chin and the finish.

Best Bet: Gane to Win (-165 at BetUS)

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Joe Pounders

Sergey Spivac is a great case study of how a fighter can greatly improve as they find their footing in the UFC. Over his first three fights, Spivac was just 1-2 and had no significant hype as a result. Since then, he is 6-1 with his one defeat coming at the hands of the highly touted championship contender, Tom Aspinall. While Spivac has certainly cemented himself as a ranked heavyweight, he is still needing that signature win to propel himself into near-title contention, and Ciryl Gane would be just that.

From a tactical perspective, Spivac’s game plan is known – wrestle. Often, when fight fans discuss who the best heavyweight wrestler is, the first name to come to mind is the GOAT Jon Jones, and if he is disallowed in the thought exercise, then Curtis Blaydes is the next man up. While I will not argue against either, Sergey Spivac has shown time in and time out that he deserves consideration for this divisional tag, particularly when knowing he relies on it as much as he does accompanied by the success he has with it in nearly every fight. Both reliance and successful implementation of wrestling will be instrumental to victory here as Spivac’s striking is far from that of Gane’s, but the same can be said for the differential in grappling. So, if Spivac can safely shoot a takedown, secure Gane to the mat, then his heavy top game, ruthless ground and pound, and a dangerous arsenal of submissions can give him a multifaceted path to victory here.

Taking Gane to the mat has been the recipe for defeat. We saw this come to ultimate reality when Jon Jones made quick work of him by landing a takedown and securing a submission victory. Moreover, we saw grappling get the better of Gane in the Francis Ngannou fight where Francis was able to implement wrestling to win a somewhat close victory. While losing by way of grappling is a massive concern, particularly when fighting the Polar Bear, Sergey Spivac, it is perhaps less of a concern to note that Gane’s only two defeats have come at the hands of the GOAT of MMA and perhaps the most feared heavyweight to have step foot in the octagon.

Knowing grappling defense is an inherent need here, Gane has likely repeatedly trained since his defeat last time around to Jon Jones. On paper, this fact may leave some believing significant improvement is on the horizon, but when you add the fact that he was doing this same grappling improvement defense following the Francis fight in the lead-up to Jones, then the belief begins to dwindle. If, however, his grappling defense does allow him to stuff the initial takedowns and get up off the mat if taken there, then the striking acumen of Gane will greatly advance the success he will have compared to Spivac given Gane will have the footwork, speed, and technical advantage over him.

This fight, similar to what we saw in Sterling vs. Suga Sean O’Malley, is the ultimate striker vs. grappler affair. Knowing this, trust in choice lessens as we have seen the striker get the better of the grappler in the past and vice versa.

While stylistic matchup makes picking a fighter difficult, the strength of opposition accompanied by recency bias on line value makes choice far easier. The latter is what I want to focus on, and that is, Gane would be a far bigger favorite in this matchup if it were not for his defeat to the GOAT of MMA in his last fight. This overcorrection in the market, while perhaps justified given the reasoning for defeat aligns with what Spivac does well, results in value on him here. Because of that accompanied by the belief in his footwork, speed, and general grappling improvement will allow him to keep the fight standing long enough to land his elite striking, I am taking Gane here. And because the longer the fight ensues the greater likelihood Spivac will secure a takedown, I am trusting Gane will enhance his intensity and look to find a finish.

Bet: Gane to win by KO (+120 at BetUS)

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Holloway returns to the cage following his unanimous decision win against Arnold Allen in April. He’ll face Chan Sung Jung, The Korean Zombie, who returns following his fourth-round knockout loss to featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski.

For those eager to watch this exciting matchup and all others this weekend, make sure to tune into UFC Fight Night 225, set to broadcast on ESPN+ at a special time in the United States. The main card begins at 8 a.m. ET with prelims getting started at 5 a.m. ET on Saturday morning.

How to bet: Sign up to BetUS and cash in our special sign-up offer of up to $2,500.

Betting Odds

Max Holloway is a heavy favorite ahead of this weekend’s main event in Singapore.

• Max Holloway: -740 (BetUS)
• Chan Sung Jung: +490 (BetUS)

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

This is a great fight against two very experienced fighters. The Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung) for a long time built a reputation as a brawler in a lot of fans’ eyes, hence the name. However, it is clear that although he can brawl he does not have to, he has some of the most accurate and technical boxing skills as well as a very educated jiu jitsu game. Zombie tends to do his best work when he is boxing with counter combinations, he is very good at slipping to counter uppercuts and hooks, and then chaining on shots, or using the same dip to initiate a takedown. Compared to many of his opponents, Zombie does not hold much of a speed advantage and this is the same against Holloway, what he does have is timing and three inches of reach. However, where he most often finds confidence in his ability to take a shot or lose ground in output in order to find that one sweet KO sequence, this trade becomes null if he cannot hurt his opponents, and instead ends up taking unnecessary damage.

Max Holloway so far has shown maybe the best chin in UFC history. It’s never a good idea to bet all your chips on chin and durability, but if anyone can wade through some of that danger from Zombie it is Holloway. What Holloway has in abundance is cardio, rhythm and output. He will be at a power disadvantage but his ability to switch stance and use in and out movement to land and evade is the perfect recipe to beat the Zombie. He utilizes a better kicking game, and even though giving up reach, has the height advantage allowing him to slip back from counter shots after landing.

Of the two men, The Korean Zombie is the more proficient jiu-jitsu player. He has shown a wider variety of submission offense, as well as good control, most recently against Holloway’s fellow Hawaiian, Dan Ige, before his title shot last year. Holloway has improved wrestling, but what sticks out are his trips and guillotine choke. Holloway has 84% takedown defense to Zombie’s 47% takedown accuracy, meaning it will be a tough go for Zombie to initiate a grappling exchange if it comes down to it, and the initial threat of the guillotine adds to that risk. Overall I do think that Holloway can avoid the grappling of The Korean Zombie, and use superior movement, speed and establish his rhythm in the striking. This all makes for the most difficult kind of fighter to consistently counter punch, which is The Korean Zombie’s main and potentially only route to victory. I think Holloway will be able to use kicks to stay outside when he wants and float in and out to box, and ultimately accumulate damage on Zombie.

Pick: Max Holloway to win (-740 at BetUS)

Michael Pounders

Come Saturday night, now 31, Max “Blessed” Holloway will grace the caged canvas for the 28th time in the UFC. He is arguably the best fighter who isn’t a champion in the entire promotion as evident by his #13 pound-for-pound ranking.

Holloway holds records for most significant strikes landed in his career, coming in with 3,122. For context, second and third place are at 1820 and 1801 respectively. Holloway also holds the record for most significant strikes landed in a single fight with 578, with second place coming in with 430. Possibly more impressive, though, is that Max ranks 1, 3, 5, and 6 on that list. Those statistics are shared in part to give one of the best fighters of this generation his well-deserved flowers but also to illustrate just how special of a fighter Holloway is.

“Blessed” is undoubtedly the best boxer in the UFC with the hand speed, volume, precision, dynamism, and toughness that accumulate to create such a fighter. Most of Holloway’s fights go the same way. From the first to the last second, Max takes the center of the octagon and rarely moves backward, instead he will stubbornly hold his ground or walk forward while unleashing unmatched volume with a variety of endless combinations.

As the fight progresses, Holloway only improves. His volume increases, his power accumulates, and his determination to win amplifies. He has one of the best cardio tanks in the UFC and knows how to weaponize that cardio along with his pressure. Beyond his pressure, cardio, and striking, the final hallmark of Holloway is his Hawaiian spirit and subsequent durability. With the likes of Dober, Luque, and Ferguson going away,

Holloway sits atop the mountain as likely the most durable fighter on the roster. Just another of his many accomplishments. Holloway has only been finished once- submitted by Poirier in 2012- despite absorbing punishment from the division’s elite for years. If there is a gap in the storied career and game of “Blessed” it is his inability or refusal to check leg kicks. Because he stands with such a wide and traditional boxing stance, Holloway carries much of his weight on his front foot which makes him more susceptible to the calf kick. But, that Hawaiian spirit yet again shines through because while Max has been hurt via leg kicks, he has always pushed through the pain and come out stronger on the other side.

A warrior worthy of sharing the octagon with Holloway, “The Korean Zombie,” Chan Sung Jung, now 36, steps in for possibly the last time in the UFC. There have not been any substantial rumors suggesting that Zombie will retire after this fight; but, given his age, severe unlikelihood of another title shot, and the wars he’s been a part of, a retirement would not surprise many.

Just like Holloway, Jung’s hallmark and the origin of his nickname is his durability and willingness to continue fighting no matter the fire coming back his way. He will, sometimes to his own detriment, walk forward like a zombie through hell in a gasoline suit to try and land his own combinations. That determination and durability not only earned him the Korean Zombie nickname but propelled him to the top of one of the best divisions in MMA.

Each time he steps into the cage, Jung’s opponent better be ready for war. Jung will pressure forward, throwing heavy and frequent combinations intended to do damage with each blow. He can push a high pace for 5 championship rounds and continue to do damage from the first to the last minute of a fight. His striking is technical, powerful, and highly successful when offensive.

But, his defensive striking, skewed because of his willingness to eat shots to move forward, leaves a lot to be desired. Jung tends to plod forward, moving linearly and rarely cutting angles, with minimal head movement. His goal is not primarily to protect himself; but, rather, get into a position where he can hurt his opponent regardless of the strikes coming back his way. His chin and toughness, both may be starting to fade with age, have allowed him to fight with this style to great success.

The other, often-forgotten aspect of Zombie’s game, that elevated his standing in the UFC is his grappling. While Jung’s wrestling is infrequent and only partially successful, his grappling, scrambling, and submission game are often underappreciated attributes. If he hurts and opponent, something he’s done in most of his fights, Jung is fully capable of following his opponent down and finding a submission on the mat. While Jung hasn’t won via submission since 2012, the skillset helps open up opportunities for victories.

Holloway is a -800 for a reason, he is simply better than Zombie everywhere. Both men are insanely durable, have cardio for days, are high level strikers, and have enough high level experience for two careers. However, in each of those categories, Holloway is better. Holloway has never been knocked out, while Jung was TKO’d in his last fight and has been finished by strikes 4 times. While Jung can push a high-octane pace for 5 rounds, Max has nearly every output record on the books.

While Jung has a striking resume worthy of admiration, Holloway is the best boxer on the roster. And while Jung has been in there with the division’s best, Holloway is one of the division’s best. In short, Holloway will win this fight. The question becomes, how to bet it. My favorite bet on the card is a multi-unit parlay of Max and Chikadze. However, as a straight play, I like Holloway by decision.

I think we’ll see a fight similar to Holloway v Kattar so a stoppage is likely going to be determined by the ref’s subjective perspective. I think Holloway will hurt Zombie enough to warrant a stoppage, but I also expect Jung’s durability to be on full display and for him to continue fighting regardless. Therefore, because I expect a finish vs. decision to be around 50/50, I want plus-money on the prop play. That lands me on Holloway by decision.

Best Bet: Holloway to win by decision (+165 at BetUS)

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