Aspinall is 6-1 with six finishes, all but one of which came in the first round. Meanwhile, Pavlovich is also 6-1 with all six wins coming in the first round. Both men are exceptionally talented and dangerous; this should be a great one!

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich betting odds

Aspinall briefly opened as the underdog but was quickly flipped to the favorite.

• Tom Aspinall: -120 (BetUS)
• Sergei Pavlovich: -110 (BetUS)

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich breakdown

Aspinall might just be the next British UFC champion. Much like Bisping, Aspinall will have to overcome the obstacles a short-notice opportunity presents. But, listening to his interviews and seeing what he’s done so far in the UFC, even after a gruesome leg injury, there is no reason to doubt the #4 heavyweight on the roster. He should be prepared to showcase the best version of himself on Saturday night.

That version of Aspinall is a technically sound, athletically gifted, and dangerously powerful boxer who uses a mix of footwork, precise combinations, and raw power to end fights and end them quickly. Also, being one of the “new breeds” of MMA heavyweights, Aspinall isn’t just a power puncher. He has a full arsenal of weapons and skills that he can turn to at any point in the fight. He is quick, athletic, light footed, a gifted wrestler, and a slick submission practitioner. No matter where the fight goes, Aspinall has the experience, technical fundamentals, and natural gifts to dominate.

Some have coined him “Russian Francis” because, much like Ngannou, the power that Pavlovich has in the octagon is unlike the power anyone else has. It’s as simple as that. The damage this man can do when wearing 4oz gloves is truly special and unmatched. He lost his UFC debut but rebounded with 6 straight 1st round finishes and hasn’t really been in any significant danger since his loss.

Pavlovich has enormous arms, both in terms of length and size, which he uses to keep opponents at bay while he looks to unload the perfect shot and end the fight quickly. While he can have lower volume at times, rarely using feints or jabs to set up his strikes, when he does go, Pavlovich will throw in combinations, all of the strikes coming toward his opponent with devastating power. If even one lands, it’s lights out.

Aspinall vs Pavlovich prediction

I am as much a fan of the UFC as I am a handicapper; so, full disclosure, Aspinall is my favorite fighter on the roster, I’ve believed since his first fight that he will be a champion, and I will be rooting for him relentlessly Saturday night. With that qualifier out of the way, let’s dig into the matchup.

Typically, in a short notice pick’em fight with heavier opponents, I tend to side on the more powerful striker because he has less he needs to prepare for and the short notice nature limits the preparation of the technician. That normally has me siding with Pavlovich who has supernovas in his gloves and doesn’t have as diverse of a game that he needs to strategize around for this fight. Moreover, Pavlovich was training to be the backup for the original Jones v Stipe fight. This implies that he has been in a training camp for at least 6 weeks and should be in prime shape.

Conversely, Aspinall was not prepping for this fight; and, even if he was training to stay in shape, was not in a full training camp until only 2.5 weeks before the fight. Again, edge to Pavlovich. But, when it comes to the stylistic matchup between these two fighters, I side with Aspinall. He is the faster and far more technical striker. He is more dynamic on the feet and in MMA, able to mix in wrestling and grappling. He has a cracking leg kick while Pavlovich’s lead leg is vulnerable and exposed. And, most importantly, because Pavlovich loads up for his power shots, Aspinall should have ample opportunities to land his impressive, quick, and powerful counter shots on the open chin of Pavlovich.

While Aspinall has been hittable early in fights but I expect his fight IQ and preparation, even limited, to keep him safe for the first few minutes as Pavlovich looks for another quick finish. Then, near the end of round 1, after Aspinall showcases why footwork and technique can beat raw power, I’m anticipating Aspinall to find the off switch, countering and finishing Pavlovich in electrifying fashion.

And, if things really do get too dicey for the Englishman, he can always turn to his wrestling to make this a mixed martial arts fight compared to the stand up striking exchange that we’re all excited to see. In any case, I like Aspinall to take the belt to England.

Best Bet: Aspinall to win (-120 at BetUS)

The post Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The main event bout has the potential for an explosive finish, as Blaydes, a top-ranked heavyweight known for his elite wrestling skills and devastating ground and pound, will face off against the ferocious striking power of Pavlovich, who has been making waves with a series of first-round knockout victories.

In this article, our staff members provide their predictions and analysis for this high-stakes fight. Will Blaydes leverage his wrestling prowess to neutralize Pavlovich’s striking, or will Pavlovich’s heavy hands prove to be Blaydes’ kryptonite once again? Read on to find out what our experts think.

Betting Odds

Curtis Blaydes is the favorite ahead of the UFC Vegas 71 main event.

• Sergei Pavlovich: +136 (MyBookie)
• Curtis Blaydes: -175 (MyBookie)

At these odds, a bet of $175 on Blaydes would yield a profit of $100 if he wins, while a bet of $100 on Pavlovich would yield a profit of $136 if he emerges victorious.

The odds reflect the general consensus that Blaydes has a higher probability of winning due to his wrestling skills and well-rounded abilities. However, with Pavlovich’s dangerous striking power, an upset is always a possibility, making the underdog bet an attractive option for those who believe in his knockout potential.

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

This fight will act as a very big test for both men, Pavlovich has yet to see a second round let alone a fifth in his UFC career and Blaydes is likely the best wrestler at 265 lbs. On the other hand, the one kryptonite for Blades has been the heaviest hitters who can stand their ground and counter him with power, Pavlovich has only avoided the second round due to his monstrous KO ability.

For Blaydes, he has to sell himself as a striker to Pavlovich to open up the level change. His striking has improved in droves over his last few performances, at one point being a fighter who struggled with taking strikes and keeping composure, Blaydes has looked his best over the last year, showing very good head movement and an ability to fight behind his jab and set up his right hand. His reach of 80 inches has largely made this easier, being able to stick and pull back with his right hand high to avoid the counters opposite shorter fighters like Chris Daukuas and Jairzinho Rozenstruik but Pavlovich will actually hold the advantage in reach at 84 inches.

Pavlovich is the more experienced striker, with a tad more power and accuracy. What Pavlovich does so well is he will pressure forward without overdoing his output, he can be patient when he needs to and pick his moments to explode and unleash. He will throw a sharp jab to check hook combinations and also likes to overwhelm his opponents with a barrage of overhand rights and hooks to get them ducking. When their posture breaks, he throws an uppercut down that center channel. As good as Blaydes has gotten in his striking, he is still an instinctual wrestler, and if they collide and Pavlovich gets off the harder shots, we could see Blaydes react with a level change, at which point the timing of that uppercut becomes very important and potentially fight ending.

To get the fight to the floor, Blaydes should get Pavlovich respecting his strikes, and when he comes forward, meet the hips and drive Pavlovich back. The Russian has shown impressive takedown defense thus far, albeit against far less respected wrestlers and in very little octagon time. He also tends to keep his hips in a very good position even when he is throwing shots so the drive-through on Blaydes double leg has to be point. Pavlovich has finished or been finished in the first round in every one of his UFC fights but was coming off of a five-round unanimous decision prior to that in Fight Night Global. He can go 25 minutes but it’s a step up against the level of competition that is Curtis Blaydes, therefore Blaydes should look to drag him deep into the fight, especially via wrestling exchanges. Blaydes has the most devastating elbows from the op half-guard, but it all comes back to finding that takedown safely.

At the end of the day, this is a very difficult fight that could swing either way. Blaydes has been working on his striking relentlessly and it shows but once hurt, a lot of times we see long-time wrestlers revert back to old habits. I think that even if they have competitive exchanges, Pavlovich is much more likely to hurt Blaydes, and then his ability to read positions and be so accurate with his punches can catch Blaydes trying to move in on the legs. Therefore I think it’s a good value to go with the underdog Pavlovich.

Pick: Sergei Pavlovich to win (+136)

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Michael Pounders

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride, Curtis “Razor” Blaydes has been a top 5 ranked heavyweight for years but has yet to hold the gold. Blaydes is a powerful and highly skilled wrestler, has devastating ground and pound (hence his nickname describing his elbows), and has shown recent improvements with his hands. Infamously, Blaydes has beaten every archetype of heavyweight except one: fighters with top-tier power.

Throughout his successful career, Blaydes has been able to out-wrestle and often finish athletic kickboxers, fighters who tip the scales at 260 pounds, other credentialed wrestlers, and well-rounded fighters who also have stayed atop the mountain for years. However, the 3 times Blaydes has faced elite-level power, he has lost and lost by finish. To his credit, it has truly taken the elite of the elite power to beat him – Francis Ngannou twice and Derrick Lewis once. Everyone else, Blaydes has beaten.

His typical path to victory, unsurprising given he fights out of Team Elevation, is to strike behind an intelligent jab and leg kick early in round 1. He uses those range strikes to keep opponents off of him while also giving them things to think about near their head and legs, thereby exposing what Blaydes is truly hunting: the hips. Once an opponent starts to counter strike or backpedal from his volume, they often leave their hips exposed. In an instant, Blaydes exploits the opening and explodes into a single or double-leg takedown.

Blaydes’ background is in college wrestling, where he was an NJCAA champion on the mat. Blaydes brings that same style and tenacity into the octagon. Once he gets an opponent down, the round typically ends with him on top, either because the clock hit 0:00 or Blaydes found the finish. Blaydes has incredible top pressure and smoothly advances position, typically looking for side control or mount. Once in position, “Razor” truly earns his nickname and rains heavy elbows down on his opponent. Once he starts, the only way he stops is via finish or the round ending.

Pavlovich seemingly came out of nowhere and stepped into stardom following five straight first-round knockout wins. He dropped his debut, also via RD1 knockout, and the criticism was that while the power is evident, Pavlovich is too unrefined on the feet to truly inflict damage. That criticism is still partially prevalent, Pavlovich is still unrefined on the feet but he has no issue inflicting damage despite it.

All of Pavlovich’s UFC fights have ended in the 1st round, and only 2 have gone longer than 90 seconds. He looks to devastatingly finish the fight from the opening minute. His wild style, almost windmill-like striking at times, combined with his otherworldly power has earned him a nickname among social media pundits: The Russian Francis. Upon first seeing this, I was skeptical to believe anyone could ever match the unique power and athleticism of the former UFC champion; but, with back-to-back 60-second knockouts of highly ranked opponents, that nickname is looking less like a joke and more like a prophecy.

Pavlovich’s striking is wild, his gas tank is unproven in the UFC, and he has yet to show, or need, a game plan beyond brawling. As all of those questions remained unanswered, they create doubt in the minds of gamblers and provide hope for opponents to find a path to victory. But, the one answer Pavlovich can continue to turn to is if he hits someone, they rarely get back up.

This fight should be a dominant win one way or the other. Blaydes could take Pavlovich down and should be able to finish him on the mat. Conversely, Pavlovich falls into the category of elite power puncher that has been Blaydes’ only Achilles Heel and The Russian Francis could earn his 6th straight knockout win.

In either case, I expect one of these fighters to implement their game plan early and end the fight soon after. Therefore, my best bet is u1.5 rounds at a -160. As far as a straight bet, though, I like the underdog in Pavlovich to keep Blaydes from a shot at the belt once again. And, if you’re backing Pavlovich, his best path is an early finish which also gets you a juicier line compared to his money line.

Best Bets: u1.5 (-160) and Pavlovich in round 1 (+335)

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Joe Pounders

With Francis Ngannou no longer on the UFC roster, Sergei Pavlovich is inserted as the most feared power threat currently fighting in the heavyweight division. Contenders for this position, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, were dismantled by Pavlovich in his two most recent fights, finishing both inside the first minute of the fight, thus making him the top dog when it comes to heavyweight power threat.

Knowing the quick finishing from Pavlovich is not only a possibility, but a recent reality, it comes to little surprise to know that Pavlovich fights with explosion, and when someone of his size comes forward with a blitz, very few can weather that storm. Moreover, Pavlovich has shown that the blitz does not need to happen within the first 60 seconds of the fight, as he has had some bouts where he fought patiently, and then out of almost nowhere, blitzed for a KO victory.

The style of using immense power, elite heavyweight size and strength, and a blitz-like attack have been a proven line of success, most recently by Francis Ngannou. But, with this style, there have been notable flaws once fighting an opponent who has the wherewithal to weather the first blitz, and if done, finding a second method of victory is needed – Ngannou lost to Stipe and Lewis in back-to-back fights which showed him needing additive skills to his game, and after those loses he went on a 6-fight streak of dominance. So, while the first-round finishing of Pavlovich is indeed a strong possibility, it will be interesting to see if he has learned from Francis, and has thus formed alternate skills to win outside of round one.

On paper, Blaydes’ style is the perfect style to combat the immense power threat of Pavlovich. This is because Blaydes has legitimate heavyweight size, threatening enough power to bring caution to a blitz-opponent, and most importantly, elite wrestling to shoot a takedown once the power is blitzed towards him. But, the lone style that has caused Blaydes issue is immense power, as his lone three losses were KO finishes, one by Derrick Lewis and two by Francis Ngannou. So, somewhat similarly to Pavlovich learning from the history of Ngannou, it will be interesting to see if Blaydes has learned from his previous defeats, if so, he can certainly win and contend for a title. This positive ability is formulated to the above skills, particularly highlighting his elite wrestling, as he has shown the ability to not only take down large heavyweights but also, keep them on the mat while landing slicing “Razor Blaydes” elbows. So, if he can weather the power storm, he can certainly secure a dominating victory, likely resulting from his elite wrestling.

This fight is incredibly interesting given the historical lessons each can learn from. From a predictive lens, many handicappers will likely note it will be a Pavolovich finish or a Blaydes win, and many, as myself will too, go one step further by saying it will either be a Pavolovich first-round KO (+350 price) or Blaydes win (-160 price). While the price is right on Pavolovich in Rd1, I believe the probability of the outcome is in Blaydes’ favor given he has been in the ring to learn from the historical pitfalls compared to Pavolovich needing to learn from the Francis blueprint compared to his own hurdles. Given this experience in loss accompanied by Blaydes being the more well-rounded fighter with underappreciated power in his own right, I am electing to go with him here in this fight against the most fearful opponent one could potentially bet against. Because I am going against the threat, I will go one step further and choose Blaydes ITD given his fight-ending ability on the feet, and more importantly, the ability to find a finish on the mat when Pavolovich will likely be drug into deep waters for the first time if taken to the mat.

Pick: Blaydes to win inside the distance (-110)

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The post Staff Predictions: Curtis Blaydes vs. Sergei Pavlovich | UFC Vegas 71 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Betting Odds

• Tai Tuivasa: +175 (MyBookie)
• Sergei Pavlovich: -227 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Pavlovich recently knocked out Derrick Lewis, a name and a legacy that helped him earn a top 5 ranking. However, Lewis has not been the Lewis of old and his name carries more power than his hands as of late. Still, Pavlovich can only fight those across from him; and, despite the lackluster resume he’s built, Pavlovich has done yeoman’s work in his wins, ending all inside of 5 minutes. Pavlovich’s only loss came in his debut to the athletic powerhouse, Alistair Overeem. Breaking his style down closely, Pavlovich has an enormous frame and generates enormous power. If he lands cleanly, few fighters can absorb the shot and remain standing. Pavlovich is primarily a boxer who does not strike with much variety or fundamentals. Instead, he is a binary striker with a basic but undeniably successful style. When he is offensive, Pavlovich swings with wide-looping shots that either connect and crack or cause him to overextend and hit air. Despite his massive size and reach, Pavlovich rarely sets up his shots with a jab or other range attack. Instead, as soon as an opponent is in his range, Pavlovich looks to throw a cross-hook combination with deadly intent.

Because of his size, Pavlovich’s range is often further than his opponent’s. So, if his cross-hook combination fails, he rarely has to worry about a counter shot coming back, most opponents simply cannot reach him for a counter. This physical advantage masks some defensive flaws, namely his tendency to overextend on strikes and exit his range with an exposed chin. When on defense, an uncommon situation thus far in his career, Pavlovich can be overly patient and plotting. He moves well linearly but struggles laterally. So, when an opponent can get inside his range and back him up, Pavlovich struggles to pivot out and circle to a safer place in the cage. His game, so far, has been binary, Pavlovich has either been on offense or defense, struggling to string the two together. But, it hasn’t mattered. Pavlovich’s raw power and physical gifts have resulted in 4 1st round finishes in a row and he keeps improving fight after fight.

Tuivasa is a new fighter since his 3-fight losing streak in 2018-2019. Since then, “Bam Bam” is 5-1, also with a knockout win over Derrick Lewis, and fought for the interim belt back in 2022. Stylistically, Tuivasa tends to fight the same way. When he is at distance he struggles to land strikes with his hands because he is often the shorter man with a smaller reach. This caused him issues during that losing streak, he couldn’t safely enter his own striking range. Since then, Tuivasa has developed an increasingly popular and effective tool: a cracking calf kick. Now, Tuivasa can hang out at his opponent’s range while dealing damage to their calf. Implemented effectively, Tuivasa is able to land damaging shots while also immobilizing his opponent. A stationary target is exactly what the Aussie brawler wants because he has some of the heaviest hands on the roster and a chin that can withstand a war.

Once an opponent is stationary, Tuivasa tends to lunge forward and unload a surprisingly quick overhand right. He gets his entire body weight behind the punch. This serves two purposes, his right-hand carries the full weight (260+ pounds) of his momentum; so, if it lands, it likely ends the fight. But, it also allows him to follow the strike and get in the pocket. Once in tight, Tuivasa’s shorter reach is to his advantage. He can land more powerful shots, to both the head and body, than taller opponents can land on him. He specifically succeeds when he can engage in a brawl against the cage where he and his opponent trade blow for blow until someone drops. Often, he isn’t the one getting dropped. This is a dangerous fight style and once his chin erodes, likely an unsuccessful one; but, until then, “Bam Bam” will put on a show.

Prediction

Tuivasa has the edge in experience, matches or suprasses Pavlovich in the power department, has the x-factor with his calf kick, and has shown the ability to close distance successfully against a rangy striker. Meanwhile, Pavlovich is a massive, powerful, and athletic fighter who has shown improvements each time out. Tuivasa is the known commodity and Pavlovich is the unknown. I’m genuinely surprised the odds are what they are, I would have handicapped Tuivasa as the favorite for the reasons outlined above. I suspect that Pavlovich is getting a bump because of his recent knockout of Derrick Lewis and people see Lewis and Tuivasa in a similar light.

However, Tuivasa is more mobile, has a better chin, and has proven more reliable as of late. I am taking Tuivasa here. I think he is the more predictable and well-rounded fighter with more paths to victory. Look for him to weather an early storm as he takes advantage of Pavlovich’s heavy lead leg with calf kicks and lack of lateral movement with heavy power shots.

Pick: Tuivasa to win (bet now at MyBookie)

The post Prediction: Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich | UFC on ESPN 42 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The UFC 277 PPV main card consists of five bouts, including two title fights, and is only available to watch on ESPN+ in the United States. Order UFC 277 here to watch this fight and all others live or on replay.

Derrick Lewis is currently the #5 ranked heavyweight fighter and will make his return tonight after being defeated by Tai Tuivasa in February. Sergei Pavlovich enters this one after three consecutive wins against Shamil Aburakhimov, Maurice Greene, and Marcelo Golm.

Read on for our full fight play-by-play updates, live blog, results, and video highlights during the Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich fight on the UFC 277 PPV main card.

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich full fight play-by-play

Watch the fight live now or catch the full replay only on ESPN+ PPV.

This #UFC277 crowd loves @TheBeast_UFC pic.twitter.com/tCbzYusmxI

— UFC (@ufc) July 31, 2022

Round one

A touch of gloves and this bout between two huge heavyweights is underway. Lewis opens with his low leg kick. Pavlovich advancing. Lewis sitting back and waiting for his shot. They’re throwing now. Both guys trading with huge power. But it’s Pavlovich all over Lewis at this point. He lands a big right hand, and Lewis loses his balance and falls face first. As he starts to get back to his feet, referee Dan Miragliotta stops the fight. Lewis was on his way back to his feet.

Lewis was definitely hurt, but the stoppage seemed a little too early. An unfortunate ending to the fight but an impressive effort by Pavlovich nonetheless.

Official Result: Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis via TKO (punches) – R1

THE BIGGEST WIN OF SERGEI PAVLOVICH'S CAREER #UFC277 pic.twitter.com/rEwrTzfPTl

— UFC (@ufc) July 31, 2022

Fighters react to Sergei Pavlovich’s win

That's definitely an early stoppage

— Francis Ngannou (@francis_ngannou) July 31, 2022

This was a bad stoppage!!!!

— Daniel Cormier (@dc_mma) July 31, 2022

Early stoppage !!! Have to give the fighter a chance to get back in the fight #UFC277

— Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (@MerabDvalishvil) July 31, 2022

Let everybody die first… them stop!!! This is ufc #ufc277

— Renato Moicano UFC (@moicanoufc) July 31, 2022

A face plant will end your dance . Not a bad stoppage ! #UFC277

— Derek Brunson (@DerekBrunson) July 31, 2022

That was weak as hell. Let em fight ref!!

— Kevin Lee MTP (@MoTownPhenom) July 31, 2022

The outcome wasn’t going to change but Derrick deserved a chance to finish. #UFC277

— Alan Jouban (@AlanJouban) July 31, 2022

You don’t stop that in Texas

— Belal Muhammad (@bullyb170) July 31, 2022

The post UFC 277: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich results appeared first on The Body Lock.