The former Brazilian sensation has hit a rough patch since her attempt at a flyweight debut against Erin Blanchfield at the beginning of the year, where she got mauled and submitted in the second round, subsequently losing her following two fights via finish.

Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern, has bounced back from a tough loss against mutual opponent, Yan Xiaonan, and is looking to once again put together a streak to start a title run.

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Andrade vs Dern Betting Odds

Likely because of the skid Andrade’s been on, Dern comes into this bout as a notable favorite.

• Mackenzie Dern: -205 (BetUS)
• Jessica Andrade: +170 (BetUS)

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Andrade vs Dern Fight Breakdown

A lot of people are quick to chalk this fight up as a short, powerful striker against a strong, technical grappler; when really, it’s just a bout between two distinct styles of Brazilian MMA. Jessica Andrade is one of the few fighters in the sport to carry the old style of chute boxing, using her powerful hands to back up her opponent to eventually shoot an explosive takedown and either grind her opponents throughout the rest of the bout or finish them with vicious ground-and-pound or a ruthless submission. Dern is entirely different, and much more reminiscent of the newer style of Brazilian MMA; a strong, comfortable striking stance with the confidence to do damage off the back, execute a sweep, or hunt a submission if she gets taken down.

This makes it a much more interesting bout than a lot of people expect it to be, with the outcome largely being determined by the defensive ability of both women. If Dern wants to win, she needs to stay out of the pocket and away from Andrade’s devastating power. She should do relatively well if she fights well off her jab and intelligently times her grappling exchanges when on the feet. I feel like if Andrade manages a takedown, the grappling pedigree and unpredictability of Dern could overwhelm her, even if she’s on top, and could quickly get an entire round stolen from her if she’s not on point. Because of this, Andrade needs to be the aggressor in the fight. She needs to find her way into the pocket and lay on heavy strikes when she can. I would be hesitant to take her down until the third round, where the likelihood of a submission is much safer.

Andrade vs Dern Prediction and Betting Guide

Overall, I’m gonna go with Dern here, just because I think she has more ways to win. Her striking has improved significantly throughout her career, especially since her fight with Marina Rodriguez where a lot of the holes in her game on the feet were exposed.

Andrade is great, but her recent bouts against strong grapplers who were of the same caliber as Dern, like Blanchfield and Suarez, show that she folds when she gets put on her back, and can quickly gas out in such a situation. I’m going Dern via decision, just because I think the fights going to be on the feet for longer than most think, but really wouldn’t be surprised by a submission somewhere in the fight.

Pick: Mackenzie Dern via Decision (+350) or Mackenzie Dern via Submission (+120)

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Rebounding after a tough loss against the current champion, Sean Strickland, in what was only his second UFC appearance, Magomedov will be looking to prove he still has what it takes to compete in the ever-competitive 185-pound division.

It’s a dynamite match-up that’ll likely make way for a new middleweight contender, and the polarizing styles make it all the more interesting.

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Betting Odds

Likely because of his momentum and Magomedov’s lackluster performance in his most recent bout, Caio Borralho steps into this one as a significant favorite.

• Caio Borralho: -305
• Abus Magomedov: +245

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Fight Breakdown

Although both these guys are specialists in their own regards; Borralho being a technical master on the ground with Magomedov being an ever-dangerous, unorthodox striker, they’re actually fairly well-rounded. Borralho has some of the most underrated wrestle-boxing in the UFC, using a wide array of short strikes in the clinch and round kicks in order to close the distance for his takedowns, where he does most of his damage on the ground. Magomedov is no easy man to pin down, though. He has extremely quick scrambles and recovers guard at a rapid pace in order to get back in his comfort zone on his feet.

Magomedov’s only issue, as was seen in the Strickland fight, is his mostly uncontrolled pace. He throws wild punches and kicks expecting a knockout or serious damage, and loses a great deal of stamina when he whiffs them. This slows him down into the latter half of the second round, and it’s noticeable in his movements. On the other hand, Borralho seems like he’s already prepared for a five-round fight, comfortably taking his opponents to the later rounds or drowning them with pressure to pull a slick submission. If Magomedov wants to leave this fight with a win, he better have worked on his pace and conditioning, or plan on an early knockout, otherwise, he has a long fifteen minutes ahead of him.

On the other hand, Borralho has a lot of weapons to deal with on the feet. Magomedov has some of the quickest kicks in the division, piecing his opponent’s legs up in order to set up powerful, unorthodox kicks to the head and body. He’s a master at controlling distance, which could give Borralho’s grapple-box approach some issues, especially in the early rounds when he’s quick and active. If Borralho wants to win, he needs to stay disciplined, especially in the early rounds, and work to walk Magomedov down and push him against the fence, otherwise, he’ll likely get pieced up from the center of the octagon.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Overall, it’s kind of hard to pick against Borralho in this one. He’s much more well-rounded and holds up a lot better in the latter rounds. If Magomedov wants to win, he needs to land early, and Borralho just seems too disciplined and dangerous to get caught like that. The difficult part to predict is the method. If you’re going with Magomedov, I don’t see it ending anywhere past the second round, and it’d have to be a knockout, but I think Borralho’s chin will hold up through the fight. I’m thinking Borralho via decision at +215, but he could still pull the submission at +165. Nevertheless, it’s an exciting fight, and anything could realistically happen given the talent both men have.

Picks: Borralho to win (-305) or Borralho via decision (+215)

Lines to Watch: Borralho via submission (+165), Magomedov via KO/TKO/DQ (+500)

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The post Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The ever-unpredictable Johnny Walker is riding high on a three-fight win streak and coming after a dominant win over an established veteran in Anthony Smith. Meanwhile, Ankalaev returns after a nearly year-long layoff following a controversial draw against former champion Jan Blachowicz in a blockbuster title fight, putting together an impressive nine-fight win streak prior to the fight.

Nevertheless, it’s going to be a wild fight between two of the most talented and established kickboxers in their division, and very well may have “fight of the night” written all over it.

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Betting Odds

With a visible grappling advantage and a much stronger resume, Magomed Ankalaev enters this bout as a significant favorite.

• Magomed Ankalaev: -360 (BetUS)
• Johnny Walker: +285 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

When it comes to Magomed Ankalaev, there really aren’t any holes in his game. His only real loss is a last-second triangle against Paul Craig in what was a monumental comeback after three rounds of Ankalaev dominating. Aside from that, the only other fight where he’s found adversity was the Blachowicz fight, where an onslaught of leg kicks from a powerful former champion shut down his movement, but even then he was able to come back in the latter rounds with his wrestling to score a draw.

His kickboxing has a perfect balance between power and finesse, using a surprisingly wide array of kicks for a light heavyweight of his size. He has a devastating front kick that he uses to force his opponents on their back foot, and his round kicks to the legs and body work wonders in slowly draining his opponents. His hands are also quick too, as he frequently sets up a devastating right cross to initiate boxing exchanges where he usually finds a clinch and overworks whoever he’s facing.

If he’s not unleashing a dangerous barrage of knees and uppercuts in the clinch, he’s usually forcing his opponents to the mat with impressive trips and throws. His takedowns from the distance are also a sight to behold, executing near-flawless double legs from an otherwise dangerous distance on a number of occasions. Once he gets to the mat the rest of the round, and really the rest of the fight, are all his. Like most of his Dagestani counterparts, his superhuman conditioning and relentless pace quickly wear out his opponents on the ground, allowing him to find ample opportunities for ground and pound or a slick submission to end the fight.

Johnny Walker is the complete opposite of this.

Whereas Ankalaev is a wildly impressive, albeit predictable, fighter in his approach to his fights, there’s really no way to know what’s going to happen in a Johnny Walker fight. Sometimes he comes in with near-perfect accuracy and slick setups that quickly dispatch his opponents with a devastating knockout. Other times it seems like not even he knows what he’s doing in the cage, throwing kicks that make no sense and walking into shots that he would have otherwise defended with ease.

Aside from his innate unpredictability, there are really only three constants in his fights: his unreal power, the wild diversity of his kicks, and his surprisingly solid conditioning. These three qualities always make him one of the most dangerously unorthodox fighters in his division and the entire UFC, and it doesn’t help that it only seems he’s getting better with time.

His most recent performances have shown him to be much more conserved, while still an enigma to his opponents. He’s begun to mix more and more leg kicks to set up the other unorthodox attacks in his arsenal. This, paired with much more frequent and realistic feints, has allowed him to back his opponents against the cage and deal some serious on his opponents rather than when he formerly started most of his exchanges in the open, allowing him to often whiff and get counted by some serious shots.

Prediction and Betting Guide

In every regard, Ankalaev should win this fight. Despite the visible power advantage and diversity of Walker’s striking, he’s a much more disciplined fighter with a much safer approach. His grappling advantage is likely going to gas Walker out despite his otherwise strong conditioning, and I feel like he could still match him on the feet regardless of Walker’s talent and athleticism.

The main caveat is that he needs to fight a near-perfect fight, as he’s sometimes done in the past, in order to not walk into a fight-changing shot or submission attempt, both of which Johnny Walker is fully capable of. I’m going with Anakalaev, but I’m much lighter than the oddsmakers are on him and really wouldn’t be surprised if Walker, once again, pulls a monumental upset.

Pick: Ankalaev by Decision (+225)

Lines to Watch: Ankalaev by Knockout (+100) or Walker by Knockout (+600)

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The post UFC 294: Johnny Walker vs. Magomed Ankalaev prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

The two are coming off some massive wins, with Jasudavicius dismantling a young prospect in Miranda Maverick, and Cortez adding to her now nine-fight win streak with a win over Melissa Gatto.

With Cortez recently breaking into the top 15, this fight is paramount to proving that either woman can contend with the rest of what’s likely the most competitive women’s division in the UFC.

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Betting Odds

With both fighters on impressive hot streaks since breaking into the UFC, this fight closes in as a near pick em’ with Cortez as a slight favorite.

• Jasmine Jasudavicius: +102 (BetUS)
• Tracy Cortez: -120 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

The main appeal of both these women is undoubtedly the sheer well-roundedness and versatility of their game. They both have their own unique styles, with Cortez being a phenomenal wrestler within the clinch and Jasudavicius being a much more gritty wrestle-boxer who isn’t afraid to make a fight with a skilled opponent a slugfest. The rest of their respective games, however, is also impressive, with both showcasing strong striking, grappling, and conditioning that have fostered much of the success in their careers.

Cortez’s composure throughout her bouts is nothing short of impressive, staying focused during heavy exchanges and almost never straying from the game plan that she and her team set out to accomplish. She hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue, throughout the entirety of her UFC career, which is all the more impressive when considering that every one of those fights has gone to a decision. She has an impressive jab for a fighter who would otherwise fall under the blanket term of a grappler and knows how to use her dirty boxing to close the distance with her opponents, which could give Jasudavicius some problems if she’s not careful. The crux of her work, however, comes from her jiu-jitsu and ground and pound. When she’s on top, particularly from the mount, the round’s as good as lost, with her relentless pressure and ground-and-pound limiting her opponent’s ability to scramble to their feet.

Although it’s much more raw and non-technical, Jasudavicius plays a relatively similar game, which is what makes this fight fascinating from a strategic standpoint. She’s an extraordinary dirty boxer, unleashing a number of punches and knees to the body whenever she gets the chance. Unlike Cortez, much of her takedown entries come from within this clinch as opposed to shooting traditional shots from the open. She has a number of trips and leg grabs that throw her opponent off guard and either send them tumbling to the canvas, or off-balanced to get hit with a shot on the break. This makes her a very awkward fight for some fighters, as you never really know when she’s trying to hurt you or take you down.

When she does get on the ground though, she breaks her opponents. She transitions from a variety of pressuring positions similar to traditional side control, forcing her opponents to work diligently to get back on their feet. She has very technical ground and pound, only striking her opponents when they attempt to scramble, forcing them to reset and start from scratch or an even worse position. Along with this, she threatens a number of submissions from any position that she could find when on top, further forcing her opponents to wear themselves out.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Overall, this fight’s probably going to be decided by whoever ends up on top first, as whoever does is very likely to wear the other out by the second round. Because of this, I’m going with Jasudavicius, solely because her fight with Miranda Maverick showcased her ability to do this very strategy against another accomplished grappler. Along with this, she has much stronger forward pressure than Cortez, throwing much more long-winded combinations with more frequency than Cortez, which could wear her out in the later rounds.

The oddsmakers are right to keep this as a pick ’em, though. The two are essentially equals in their skillsets, and the tide of the fight could easily be decided by Cortez and her acumen of octagon control, making this fight all the more exciting for its unpredictable nature.

Pick: Jasudavicius by Decision or Fight to go the Distance

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The post Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius prediction | UFC Fight Night 227 appeared first on The Body Lock.

This eagerly awaited clash comes in the wake of a controversial eye-poke no-contest with Tafa on the receiving end back in July in Jacksonville, which left fight fans craving a more substantial fight. The initial bout, lasting less than 30 seconds, fell short of expectations, given that both fighters are renowned for their knockout prowess and boast a remarkable 100% finish rate.

However, this weekend, they’re prepared to settle the score on the grand stage of a pay-per-view main card, promising a barn-burner that doesn’t have a chance to go the distance.

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Betting Odds

Despite a much spottier and shorter resume, Tafa opens this fight as a 2-1 favorite.

• Justin Tafa: -210 (BetUS)
• Austen Lane: +180 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

The most important aspect of this fight from an X’s and O’s standpoint, and one that I’m surprised oddsmakers aren’t taking into account, is the massive disadvantage in size that Tafa’s up against. Lane, being a former NFL defensive end, is a massive heavyweight, standing at a staggering 6’6″ with an 80-inch reach. Now, in most heavyweight fights, this would only be a bit out of the ordinary, but with Tafa coming in at 6′ and a 74-inch reach, it’s significant enough to mention, especially since most of his former opponents came in at around the same size as him. Without a doubt, this is the best athlete Tafa’s faced from an objective standpoint, and likely one of the only true heavyweights within the division.

With that being said, Justin Tafa’s no slouch. He’s showcased a remarkable ability to lure his opponents into heavy firefights, where he wins most of the time. He has ridiculously powerful haymakers that could flatline his opponent with a single well-timed shot. Along with this, he puts forward brutal leg kicks that force them to close the distance, further welcoming them into a firefight. However, this same tendency to start phonebooth fights has also seen him lose in some of his more important fights. he often leaves his hands down when storming an opponent, which resulted in a brutal knockout loss to Yorgan De Castro, and when he can’t put his opponents away he often leaves himself too gassed to realistically win a decision. As well as this, once he sees his opponent entering the pocket, he strictly headhunts, abandoning open shots to the body and refusing to break off to throw his ridiculously powerful leg kicks. Overall, Tafa’s extremely talented and has a remarkable chin to go along with his punching power, but his rawness and refusal to fight strategically have caused him to be his own worst enemy.

As stated before, Lane is a great athlete with solid power and fighting ability to show for it. Although he’s a transitional athlete, originally coming from the NFL into MMA, he’s impressively put up 15 professional fights in the past six years, accounting for a worldwide pandemic, which is more active than most established fighters, Tafa included. It looks like he’s picked up quickly along the regional scene, especially after his KO loss to Greg Hardy on the Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, honing his skills to get the six-fight win streak he has today. He seems to have a solid understanding of his reach now and has developed a strong grappling game along the fence, which he uses to wear out his opponents to set up devastating shots off the break. Lane’s most devastating weapon, however, has become his ground and pound. As he’s developed an understanding of the various positions in wrestling and BJJ, he’s showcased an ever-growing and terrifying level of ground-and-pound, that often puts his opponents out in a single shot, making him a nightmare to get knocked down or taken down by.

Prediction and Betting Guide

There are two factors that are going to decide this fight and they’re the two I haven’t touched on in the breakdown: grappling and conditioning. Neither fighter has much of either but I’m edging it out to Lane here, strictly because of how underwhelming Tafa has looked in both departments throughout his tenure in the UFC.

Once he’s on his back, Tafa’s very slow to scramble up and takes a lot of punishment in the process. While Lane doesn’t have a traditional grappling background, his massive size, along with experience as a defensive end and an evidently developing grappling game, I don’t see a world where he doesn’t take this fight to the ground. If not, it’s very likely that he could grind Tafa out against the cage if he survives the initial exchange which has, historically, gassed Tafa out in the past. If Tafa wants a win this weekend, it’s going to be critical to keep the center of the octagon, which is easier said than done when put against an opponent with such a towering height and reach advantage.

Overall, I think the oddsmakers are counting Lane out solely because it’s his debut this weekend. On paper, there aren’t many ways that Tafa could win the fight, aside from flatlining Lane with a solid hook, which wouldn’t even be too profitable at -165. Lane has more weapons, more experience, and more athleticism than Tafa, so on paper, I don’t really see how he can lose. It is MMA though, and anything is possible, especially with someone as heavy-hitting as Justin Tafa, and so your safest pick is the extremely unprofitable bet for the fight to go the distance at -900. Aside from that, I’d go with Lane by KO/TKO (+250) or by submission if you’re feeling lucky at (+1100), just because I don’t see Tafa getting up if it goes to the ground.

Pick: Lane by KO/TKO (+250) or Lane money line (+180) or Fight to end within the distance (-900)

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Many questions have arisen regarding Rose’s physical and mental state since that fight. However, her co-main event matchup against flyweight standout Manon Fiorot could swiftly dispel any doubts about her future in the sport.

In what’s most likely a title eliminator featuring two of the division’s top talents, fans can expect an exciting clash between two well-rounded fighters with distinct and contrasting styles.

Betting Odds

Likely because of her recent performance (or lack thereof), “Thug” Rose enters this fight as a near 2-1 underdog.

• Manan Fiorot: -205 (BetUS)
• Rose Namajunas: +170 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

As stated before, this match, on paper, showcases two of the best in the flyweight division who are remarkable specialist within their own styles. However, it’d be a disservice not to mention just how proficient they both are in every aspect of fighting. Rose, a seasoned and extremely proficient jiu-jitsu specialist, has shown exponential growth in her striking throughout her career, due largely in part to the tutelage of world-renowned coach Trevor Whitman. Inversely, Fiorot has demonstrated insane striking prowess with her kickboxing background while maintaining a keen ability to keep the fight on the feet. As well as this, she’s extremely disciplined in initiating scrambles once she’s put on her back, making her an extremely difficult and tiring opponent to deal with from a grappling standpoint.

A notable factor that oddsmakers most likely have taken into account going into this bout is that this is one of the few fights where Rose is giving up a size advantage. Fiorot comes into this bout with a 2-inch height advantage and an equal reach to Rose, which could be significant, given the ranged nature of Fiorot’s striking style. If Rose fights even remotely similar to her fight with Esparza, that being an extremely conserved approach that was likely contingent on peppered counters, she can expect to get picked apart with an assortment of kicks, mixed to the legs and body.

In saying that, Rose’s path to victory in this fight relies on her ability to put pressure on Fiorot and back her against the cage. Now, this is easier said than done, of course. Fiorot appears to be a master of controlling distance in a fight, showcasing exceptional footwork and an aptitude for making her opponents over-extend. There do come times, however, when she gets too aggressive in her counters and combinations, which have led to some unfavorable clinch exchanges and unnecessary shots taken during her fights.

All in all, if Rose can close the distance, this fight is most likely going to be decided within the clinch, which makes this a tricky bout to predict. Fiorot is extremely dangerous if she finds a Thai clinch, often unleashing a dangerous flurry of elbows and knees before her opponents can properly react. On the other hand, Rose has maintained excellent clinch control, particularly when pinning her opponents to the fence or pummeling back and forth to secure a body lock or single-leg takedown. Although Fiorot could likely land more significant damage from inside the clinch, I think she’ll be looking to stay as far as possible from it, so as to not get taken down or gas out to Rose’s pressure.

Prediction and Betting Guide

All in all, I think this fight should be a pick ’em in spite of Rose’s last performance. From an X’s and O’s standpoint, it’s a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, just this time under the skillset of modern MMA fighters. One thing that I don’t see, is this fight ending with a finish. Both women are extremely difficult to put away and fight fairly conserved, non-aggressive styles; only ever jumping on finishes when their opponents are visibly hurt or exhausted.

If I’m trying to make money, I’d go with Rose, however. Her last performance was a horrible exception to an otherwise awe-inspiring career that’s given us some of the best performances in WMMA, and at +170 it’d be unfair to lose faith in a future hall-of-fame fighter over one poor performance. I still wouldn’t count Fiorot out, however. She’s an extremely capable fighter with much more to fight for at this point, making her inherently dangerous for someone with a name as big as “Thug” Rose.

Pick: Fight to go the Distance (-175) or Rose to win via Decision (+330) or Rose Moneyline (+175)

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The post Rose Namajunas vs. Manon Fiorot prediction | UFC Paris appeared first on The Body Lock.

Magny, taking this fight on a week’s notice, is also coming off of an entertaining, if not controversial, win against Phillip Rowe in late June. It’s an important match for both fighters, with Magny being the first true veteran that Garry has stepped into the octagon with and Garry being the perfect stepping stone for Magny to climb up the welterweight top 10 once again.

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Betting Odds

Likely due to the short-notice nature of this fight, as well as the hype around Garry, Neil Magny comes into this fight as a sizable underdog.

• Ian Garry: -500 (BetUS)
• Neil Magny: +380 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Ian Garry’s fighting style is marked by a seamless blend of technical kickboxing and intriguing clinch work. His striking prowess is evident in his ability to create openings with precise combinations, often using his long reach to maintain distance and land clean shots. Garry’s striking strategy is not about sheer aggression, but rather about finding opportune moments to unleash powerful counters and evasive maneuvers. From inside the clinch, he perfectly uses his lanky frame to bombard his opponents with knees and hooks on the break.

However, Garry’s game becomes even more intriguing when it transitions to the ground. His previous exploits in Cage Warriors showcased his aptitude for control from the back and ground-and-pound. While his UFC career has predominantly seen him on his feet, his grappling proficiency remains an uncharted territory that could surprise Magny.

Neil Magny’s fighting style centers on pressure, cage control, and tactical wrestling. Magny’s striking might not be as flashy as some of his counterparts, but he effectively uses it to set up his grappling and clinch work. His ability to pressure opponents to the fence enables him to initiate clinch exchanges and tire out his foes. Once in the clinch, Magny employs his reach advantage to deliver knee strikes and positional control, often sapping the energy of his adversaries.

Cage wrestling is a cornerstone of Magny’s game plan. He utilizes his strength to grind opponents against the cage, neutralizing their striking and forcing them into his comfort zone. This tactical approach not only disrupts their rhythm but also allows him to dictate the pace of the fight.

Prediction and Betting Guide

As much as I’d like to go with Magny, I don’t see a way he wins this fight. Although he’s still inexperienced in the UFC, Garry has all the tools necessary to go the distance, if needed, and possibly end the fight early. While Magny definitely has what it takes to control Garry for some time, he seems too polished and effective off his back for Magny to do any real damage. As well as that, his previous bouts have shown the capabilities of his gas tank and just how powerful his shots are in the final rounds.

At -500, I’d be light on Garry moneyline, but betting on a KO/TKO at +100 or a decision at +200 (which is fairly more probable given Magny’s track record of being hard to put away) seem like good props to either bet individual or to help boost a small parlay.

Pick: Garry by KO/TKO +100 or Garry by Decision +200

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Dawodu, riding the wave of a five-fight win streak upon his arrival in the UFC, before losing to the always-game Movsar Evloev and Swanson, a longstanding gatekeeper from his WEC days, bring a wealth of experience to the octagon. While Dawodu has transitioned beyond the prospect label at this stage in his career, a showdown with

Swanson serves as a litmus test, determining whether he possesses the mettle to contend with the elite echelons of the fiercely competitive 145-pound division.

Betting Odds

With a significant advantage in age and more reason to be in the octagon, Dawodu opens as a slight 2-1 favorite.

• Hakeem Dawodu: -230 (BetUS)
• Cub Swanson: +190 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Stylistically, this is probably one of the more even fights on the entire card. Both fighters are extremely proficient and lightning-quick strikers who throw long-winded, yet powerful combinations. Dawodu, who fights slightly more conserved, will be sure to use his three-inch reach advantage to keep Swanson at range, who will definitely be looking to get in the pocket and utilize some of his always-consistent dirty boxing.

Swanson’s penchant for absorbing punishment while delivering blows has become a defining aspect of his fighting style. His durability, combined with his ability to land heavy shots, often transforms his bouts into thrilling exchanges. However, this strategy also exposes him to significant risks, making his defensive approach a crucial factor in this matchup. On the other side, Dawodu’s mastery of effective kicks, especially at a distance, provides him with a formidable arsenal to control the rhythm of the fight. His calculated approach complements his lightning-quick striking, enabling him to manage the distance and capitalize on his three-inch reach advantage. It’s a delicate balance between Swanson’s willingness to engage in close-quarter combat and Dawodu’s preference for maintaining a controlled range – a dynamic that promises an enthralling clash of contrasting strategies.

It should also be noted that Dawodu’s exact style has been the fighting style that has shut Swanson down in his most recent bouts. His latest losses came at the hands of Giga Chikadze and Jonathan Martinez, two fighters who fight with an extremely similar style as Dawodu, both of which being devastating stoppages that will have long-term implications for Cub’s longevity.

If Swanson wants a win, he needs to utilize his experience as a veteran and use the same approach that shut Dawodu down in his last two bouts against Evloev and Erosa, that being solid top-pressure on the ground. In bouts where he’s taken to the ground early, such as his matches with Evloev and his debut loss against Danny Henry, Dawodu has visibly shown himself to slow down and put much less power into his kicks in order to catch his breath. If Swanson could grind him out on the ground for the first round and a half (that being if Dawodu doesn’t reign enough significant damage in the process) it’s very likely that he could go toe-to-toe with Dawodu on the feet and implement the same gameplan that’s kept him in the sport for so long: slick and quick dirty boxing in the pocket.

Prediction and Betting Guide

As much as I’d love to say Swanson has a dog in this fight for nostalgia’s sake, it wouldn’t be right to say it’s safe to part with your money on him. There are simply too many what ifs and it looks like Dawodu’s become a much more well-rounded fighter during his run in the UFC, so to say a 39-year-old Cub Swanson has a solid chance is more wishful thinking than a legitimate analysis.

Overall, I’d go with Dawodu via KO/TKO (+165) or decision (+200), unless you plan on using him as a parlay addition at -200 money line, which is a solid odds booster. It should be noted, however, that if he comes home with a win, this wouldn’t be the first time Swanson’s put away a younger, seemingly more game opponent who was “supposed” to win, and so this fight is still a fascinating co-main event nonetheless.

Pick: Dawodu by KO/TKO (+165) or Dawodu by Decision (+200)

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Green, who is coming off of a controversial no-contest against Jared Gordon, is also on a losing streak, having been finished by Drew Dober and the current lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev. Both are getting old and can’t really afford another loss, making this a competitive yet bittersweet bout between former contenders for the fans.

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Betting Odds

Oddsmakers seemed to have lost faith in Ferguson due to his recent performances, putting him at a near 3-1 underdog.

• Bobby Green: -380 (BetUS)
• Tony Ferguson: +310 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

It’s hard to “break down” the fighting style of both of these men. Both are the epidemy of unorthodox fighting in their own unique ways, showing up with a different fighting style in nearly all of their bouts.

While Bobby Green’s fighting style is oriented around his boxing, it’d be unfair to give him such a one-dimensional assessment. He throws wild knees and elbows from extremely creative angles that throw off his opponents more often than not. As well as this, while he doesn’t utilize them too often, he has extremely effective side kicks that he throws both to the legs and the body, with relatively sharp accuracy. The only straightforward aspect of Green’s fighting style is his boxing, but even in an MMA setting, it’s fairly unorthodox. He throws very long-winded combinations, mixing both shots to the head and the body, while using traditional boxing head movements with techniques like well-timed pulls and pivots as well as his trademarked Philly shell.

Green’s main deficits, which haven’t seemed to resolve themselves throughout his career, have been his grappling ability off of his back, and his overeagerness to exchange in the pocket. Throughout his career, nearly every time he’s put together a solid winning streak, he’s either found himself at the tail end of a brutal knockout loss that he could have avoided, such as his fights with Poirier and Dober or dejected after fifteen minutes of being controlled by superior grapplers. As well as this, he waivers towards the later rounds of his fight, noticeably packing less heat in his punches and aggressing forwards much less. For Green to win this weekend, he needs to stay on his feet and avoid entering the pocket with someone as crazy and willing as Tony Ferguson, while maintaining a pace consistent enough to stay active for all fifteen minutes.

While Green’s fighting style is consistent enough to assess stylistically, Tony Ferguson is an entirely different can of worms. I genuinely don’t think that I’ve seen anyone as stylistically inconsistent as Ferguson, both for better and for worse. Like Green, he has a boxing base, but the BJJ, wrestling, Muay Thai, Wing Chun, aikido, and more that he throws in during his fights make him more of a wild card than anything. In some fights, he comes in looking to purely close the distance to throw elbows and body shots, like in his matches with Barboza and Pettis. For others, he opts to take a grapple-heavy approach, using his relentless pressure and his confidence off of his back to slow his opponents down, as he did with Kevin Lee. Then in some matches, he throws the manual away completely, opting for Mortal Kombat-esque sweep kicks and spontaneous iminari rolls. His fighting style is a lot like his personality, spontaneous and seemingly-random but still motivated by a specific goal.

Once again, this unorthodoxy has both helped and hindered Ferguson in the past. While forward rolls and tomahawk elbows have gotten him out of some messy exchanges in the pocket, these kinds of techniques have often made him a victim of his own hubris. He’s often shown that, once he’s likely down on the scorecards in a fight, he throws everything against the wall to finish his opponent, stepping into the pocket with devastating strikers like Justin Gaethje or shooting takedowns at renowned grapplers like Nate Diaz or Beneil Dariush. As well as this, while his cardio still seems strong relative to other competitors, he’s noticeably slowed down in the past five years in terms of speed and agility. In a lot of ways, he’s too old and too slow to be as spontaneous and unorthodox as he is, which has put him in some horrendous positions in his last five fights.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This is a tough one to pick. As bad as people think Tony’s looked in his last five, his most recent bout against Diaz showed that he still has what it takes to go with the best if he’s on point. On the other hand, Green hasn’t looked too sharp in his most recent outings either. As well as this, the brutal nature of his knockout loss to Dober and, while accidental, his headbutt no-contest against Jared Gordon raise some questions about his chin.

Objectively, it’s very difficult to pick Ferguson with where he’s at in his career, but it’s equally difficult to see a way that Green could win. He doesn’t seem to have the explosive power necessary to knock Ferguson out, and is definitely not sharp enough on the ground to submit him or control him for some rounds, so, in my opinion, his only chance to win is to get a decision against a Tony who didn’t show up at his best.

I’m not 100% ripe on it, but Ferguson’s money line at +310 seems like a solid pick if he actually shows up, but if you want a “safer” pick, go Green by decision, or better yet stay away from this fight with a ten-foot poll from a betting perspective and enjoy a historic match between two of the best lightweights of the 2010s.

Pick: Ferguson to win (+310) or Green via decision (+120)

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McKinney, eager to rebound from a crushing KO defeat at the hands of Ismael Bonfim in a thrilling clash back in January, aims to reestablish his momentum. Meanwhile, Sadykhov seeks to extend the impressive knockout streak he’s had since his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series.

With their highly versatile skill sets and both fighters being at the athletic prime of their careers, this matchup guarantees to deliver a captivating spectacle that will engage even the newest of fight fans.

Betting Odds

With both fighters showcasing similar skill sets and physical attributes, this fight opens as a near pick ’em in favor of Sadykhov.

• Nazim Sadykhov: -130 (BetUS)
• Terrance McKinney: +110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Despite their exceptional well-roundedness in both striking and grappling, these fighters possess distinct styles that add an intriguing dynamic to this matchup. Sadykhov, a remarkable boxing talent, exhibits lightning-quick combinations and employs intricate angles to unleash a barrage of devastating kicks from a distance. His ability to maintain range and deliver precise strikes creates a constant threat to his opponents. He’s relatively effective from within the clinch and, while he doesn’t initiate grappling exchanges, he’s extremely good at recovering guard to scramble to his feet. On top of this, he has monstrous ground-and-pound that he uses to maul his opponents after he hurts them on the feet.

On the other hand, McKinney is a natural wrestler who has a much more relentless approach. He employs his striking skills to close the distance, stepping into the pocket to either shoot for his opponent’s legs for a takedown or initiate a dominant clinch exchange. McKinney’s wrestling prowess allows him to dictate the pace of the fight and control his opponents on the ground. He has both exceptional ground-and-pound and a calculated submission game, making him a serious threat when on top.

His striking, however, is far more dynamic and multi-dimensional than most grapplers, however, as he uses a variety of advanced concepts and techniques in order to get his opponents to bite on both feinted takedowns and punches. Like many exciting fighters, however, his main deficit is his overeagerness to step in the pocket, which has gotten him brutalized against the aforementioned Ismael Bonfim and Drew Dober. If McKinney wants to win this fight, he must stay disciplined and not get countered by a striker as powerful as Sadykhov.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This is definitely one of the tougher fights of the weekend to pick, and it really depends on how McKinney shows up more so than Sadykhov. On one hand, it’s very likely that McKinney could take Sadykhov down and control him for the duration of the fight, while on the other hand, it’s equally likely that Sadykhov could clip McKinney on his way in. If Sadykhov does win, however, I see no way other than knockout.

However, oddsmakers see this the same way, putting it at a mostly unprofitable +130. It’s likely the best payout you could get aside from betting on rounds; however, McKinney by submission is also relatively possible and looks nice at +350.

Nonetheless, the contrast in styles between Sadykhov’s striking finesse and McKinney’s relentless wrestling makes this matchup all the more captivating, as fans can anticipate an exciting clash of contrasting techniques.

Pick: Sadykhov Moneyline (-130) or Sadykhov by Knockout (+130) or McKinney by Submission (+350)

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