However, his toughest opponent to date stands in front of him next. A former soldier in the French Army, Saint-Denis has undeniable toughness and heart. However, it’s this, plus his top-notch grappling skills and powerful striking that make him such a threat. Currently riding a winning streak of four, Saint-Denis has lost only once in his entire pro career.

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Betting Odds

Matt Frevola will come into the bout as a +190 underdog against the fighter from France.

• Matt Frevola: +190 (BetUS)
• Benoit Saint Denis: -230 (BetUS)

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Fight Breakdown

Matt Frevola is on a first-round finish streak in his last three fights. Surprisingly, at one point he was believed to be a slow starter at times but with the new belief in his KO power we will likely see an aggressive Frevola early. This is also likely because the gameplan going in is probably to shut down the takedowns of Saint-Denis and force him to trade. Frevola is a tough, conventional stance fighter with a big overhand a hard kicks from both sides. Opposite the southpaw Saint-Denis, he will be looking to paw with the left hand and lead his combinations with his right cross and overhand and follow up in combination with the left afterwards.

Frevola tends to be the one moving forward, however he is arguably most dangerous when he is put on the fence as he has a unique ability to be pushed back and then explode out. In his recent streak, he was pressured and then lunged back out with a big superman punch for the knockdown, and also was being backed up before countering a body shot with his back to the cage again for another knockdown. Frevola should never be counted out because at the times where he is being pressed is when he can land the bombs unexpected.

That being said, there are some tells that Frevola offers which Saint-Denis can capitalize on. First, Frevola is very fast but he bites on a lot of feints with his go-to overhand right to roll out on his right side. He also often has difficulty finding his range for his big punches early on in the fight, if Saint Denis can bait out that overhand, he can count on Frevola missing and rolling away towards that side and setup what he throws to that reaction. Saint Denis has a great left kick of his own, standing southpaw himself so if he can time the right hand of Frevola he could catch him rolling onto his power kick side.

Yet, Saint-Denis’ clearest way to victory is to mix everything together and get Frevola to the canvas as often as he can. Frevola is a solid scrambler and wrestler but will give up his back in the process. Saint-Denis has a tremendous blast double, and even better control once he gets it there. He will duck under shoot, which could be done on the overhand read, and he also likes to set up his level change with a left kick, step through left hook. Once on the mat, Saint-Denis immediately gets to lacing the legs beneath him in a triangle of sorts, forcing his opponents to turn away and expose the back. Frevola does so anyway, so expect Saint-Denis to have success finding the opportunities for this transition. One of Saint-Denis’ most seamless grappling techniques is to reach around for far wrist control and whip his legs from the leg lace to the body triangle on the back in a single beat.

Frevola vs Saint-Denis Prediction

Matt Frevola’s keys to victory are stuffing the takedowns, and turning those sequences into scrambles where he can get back to the feet and push the pace. He wants to force Saint-Denis to trade with him at boxing range where he can lead, and counter with the right overhand and left hook.

For Saint-Denis it’s about using his kicks and finding the shot to the hips. Best case scenario would be taking Frevola down in space where he cannot use the cage, however it’s likely he will have to deal with that.

Ultimately I think that Frevola needs to depend on a potential KO to win, whereas Saint Denis has just as likely a chance to stop Frevola, but also out score him with precise striking and grappling control en route.

Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis to win (-230)

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The post Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

However, before the heavyweights throw down, fans can look forward to a card of exciting fights across all divisions, including another hometown hero in the lightweight category – Benoit Saint-Denis. The Frenchman is on a three-fight win streak, having recently taken out Ismael Bonfim, Gabriel Miranda, and Nicklas Stolze all before the judges could get involved.

His opponent, Thiago Moises, is also riding a win streak with victories over Christos Giagos and Melquizael Costa. The Brazilian grappling ace has also fought the who’s who of 155, having competed with the champion Islam Makhachev, Beniel Dariush, Bobby Green and Alex Hernandez, amongst others. At just 28 and 27, both Moises and Saint-Denis have massive potential for the future in the division.

Betting Odds

Thiago Moises walks into enemy territory as a slight underdog against France’s Saint-Denis.

• Benoit Saint-Denis: -155 (BetUS)
• Thiago Moises: +125 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Both of these men are submission specialists, with Saint-Denis holding 9 submission victories in 11 wins and Moises 8 of 17. Moises, on paper, could be the superior black belt, having won IBJJ gold prior to his UFC career, but in the octagon both men pose a massive threat to one another. Yet, every fight starts on the feet and both men are almost as dangerous standing.

Saint-Denis is a southpaw fighter with a crouched bladed stance conducive to power strikes. His left body kick is among the best in the UFC today, and because it comes from a wide stance, it gathers quite a lot of momentum before impact. He is a bit predictable in its use but the ferocity with which he throws it forces his opponents to respect and block, then opening up the head or punches behind the kick entry. For example, Saint-Denis does a good job of firing the left kick when his opponent’s back is against the cage, into a frame on the shoulder and a slide-out right hook. He also has a nice left kick to step through left hook into a level change setup. Another consistency in his striking to watch out for is his spinning back fist which he throws to counter the right cross if thrown to regularly.

Thiago Moises is a conventional stance fighter, so expect that right hand to come at some point as well as the right body kick to match saint-Denis’ left. Both men favour the body kick from the open stance so there is going to be a battle here, although Saint-Denis probably has the power advantage. Thiago Moises uses the kick mores to setup the right reverse punch, which he throws karate style, squaring his shoulders and keeping posture, lunging into the attack rather than extending his body. However, between the two of them, expect the setups for the takedowns to be made carefully between striking exchanges.

Both men are primarily top-game grapplers, but Maoises has a better-versed guard and leg lock game on top of this. The caveat being, that because he is more comfortable he will more likely accept takedowns to roll for legs or submissions, or give up on his own level changes to roll on legs as well. Contrastingly, if Saint-Denis is taken down, he will look to wrestle up or reverse the takedown from a sprawl, which he is very good at.

Saint-Denis has superb timing on his duck under double leg entry, and great finishing ability for the takedown. If he is able he will immediately look to figure four the legs and work from there. However, if he is unable to trap the legs, expect him to tripod with his head in his opponent’s chest and hips high in order to drive his weight into them and the crevice of the cage and floor. This head pressure often forces opponents to give up the back, however it could be risky leaving that room for Moises to roll under or dig an undertook to the leg if he can work his way through. If Denis can trap the legs he has a beautiful back-take setup where he controls the far wrist and forces his opponent to turn into the leg which is hooking, and then moves said leg to the belly and directly to the body triangle on the back.

Moises will be looking for the snatch single leg with the two men in an open stance to one another, and with Saint-Denis so sideways. Most of the time, Moises uses the initial dive on the legs to push his opponents into the cage where he uses the single leg to turn and finish with an angle change or come up into a clinch and trip the legs out from over-under position. Moises is a master at controlling the upper body and using his legs to drag out and extend his opponent into off-balanced positions. If he can get to a waistlock on the back he is one of the best and tearing his opponent’s leg out from under them and exposing space to get his hooks in to take the back.

Prediction

This is a very good and fun fight for the fans. Both men are extremely technical and dynamic. I expect a good exchange on the feet. Moises technically and tactically should hold his own but Saint-Denis definitely fires with more power usually, just in the way he sits down on shots and is able to tactically load up power.

On the ground, we should see some good sweeps, but both men are so dominant in certain positions, once they take the back or control the chest such as double undercooks or cross-face that I think whoever establishes control first probably snowballs forward. Moises is more likely to give up control positions to attack submissions, which think could be a major detriment if he cannot finish them, and I also think that because Saint-Denis throws with more and starts quicker, we see him take the center of the octagon first and leads the takedown sequences.

This leads me to lean towards Saint-Denis to win, as I think he controls the space and pace of the fight early on.

Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis to win (-155 odds at BetUS)

The post Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises prediction | UFC Paris appeared first on The Body Lock.