Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern prediction & odds | UFC 295
Former Strawweight champion Jessica Andrade is looking to rebound from a hard three-round losing streak against longtime contender Mackenzie Dern this weekend at UFC 295.
The former Brazilian sensation has hit a rough patch since her attempt at a flyweight debut against Erin Blanchfield at the beginning of the year, where she got mauled and submitted in the second round, subsequently losing her following two fights via finish.
Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern, has bounced back from a tough loss against mutual opponent, Yan Xiaonan, and is looking to once again put together a streak to start a title run.
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Andrade vs Dern Betting Odds
Likely because of the skid Andrade’s been on, Dern comes into this bout as a notable favorite.
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Andrade vs Dern Fight Breakdown
A lot of people are quick to chalk this fight up as a short, powerful striker against a strong, technical grappler; when really, it’s just a bout between two distinct styles of Brazilian MMA. Jessica Andrade is one of the few fighters in the sport to carry the old style of chute boxing, using her powerful hands to back up her opponent to eventually shoot an explosive takedown and either grind her opponents throughout the rest of the bout or finish them with vicious ground-and-pound or a ruthless submission. Dern is entirely different, and much more reminiscent of the newer style of Brazilian MMA; a strong, comfortable striking stance with the confidence to do damage off the back, execute a sweep, or hunt a submission if she gets taken down.
This makes it a much more interesting bout than a lot of people expect it to be, with the outcome largely being determined by the defensive ability of both women. If Dern wants to win, she needs to stay out of the pocket and away from Andrade’s devastating power. She should do relatively well if she fights well off her jab and intelligently times her grappling exchanges when on the feet. I feel like if Andrade manages a takedown, the grappling pedigree and unpredictability of Dern could overwhelm her, even if she’s on top, and could quickly get an entire round stolen from her if she’s not on point. Because of this, Andrade needs to be the aggressor in the fight. She needs to find her way into the pocket and lay on heavy strikes when she can. I would be hesitant to take her down until the third round, where the likelihood of a submission is much safer.
Andrade vs Dern Prediction and Betting Guide
Overall, I’m gonna go with Dern here, just because I think she has more ways to win. Her striking has improved significantly throughout her career, especially since her fight with Marina Rodriguez where a lot of the holes in her game on the feet were exposed.
Andrade is great, but her recent bouts against strong grapplers who were of the same caliber as Dern, like Blanchfield and Suarez, show that she folds when she gets put on her back, and can quickly gas out in such a situation. I’m going Dern via decision, just because I think the fights going to be on the feet for longer than most think, but really wouldn’t be surprised by a submission somewhere in the fight.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern via Decision (+350) or Mackenzie Dern via Submission (+120)
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