This time, we’re focusing on breaking down the main event in detail, with Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders sharing their opinions on who will win and why. But that’s not all, we also have predictions up for many of the other UFC on ESPN 48 fights including:

• Michael Morales vs. Max Griffin
• Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto
• Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina
• Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
• Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
• Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov
• Elves Brener vs. Guram Kutateladze

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If you haven’t already, sign up to BetUS using our special link for an unbeatable sign-up bonus. Now, let’s gear up and dig into the betting odds for the much-anticipated Strickland vs. Magomedov brawl.

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Betting Odds

First things first, let’s break down the betting odds. The current odds stand at Sean Strickland at -150 and Abus Magomedov at +120. If you’re new to the betting scene, here’s a quick rundown.

• Abus Magomedov: +120 (BetUS)
• Sean Strickland: -150 (BetUS)

Negative odds (Strickland’s -150) represent the favorite and show how much you need to bet to win $100. In this case, a $150 bet on Strickland could net you an extra $100 if he wins. Conversely, positive odds (Magomedov’s +120) indicate the underdog, representing how much you could win from a $100 bet. If you wager $100 on Magomedov and he emerges victorious, you stand to pocket an additional $120.

Our experts Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders have dissected the fighters’ strategies, strengths, and weaknesses, giving you a holistic view of what to expect in the ring. From Strickland’s unusual style and Magomedov’s well-rounded fighting skills, to the probability of Strickland’s economical style wearing Magomedov down in the later rounds, they’ve covered it all.

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Abus Magomedov is a very skilled and especially well-rounded fighter. Growing up on the wrestling mat before transitioning to kickboxing as a teen, he has extensive training both in pure grappling and striking which makes him dangerous everywhere. A quick glance at their records, Strickland at 26-5 and Magomedov at 25-4 seem comparable at first, but 18 of those fights for Strickland have been under the UFC banner while Magomedov only just made his debut.

Sean Strickland has an unusual style, while he does most of his work with his boxing he keeps his lead leg very light to check and block, maintains a very erect posture with his chin almost in the air, and a high loose guard. He depends highly on his reaction time as he mostly parries and blocks strikes coming his way in between peppering his opponents with straights and hooks. Alex Periera highlighted the way in which Strickland’s style can be controlled, forcing him to over-commit to a parry with a feint and then reach around with the left hook. Magomedov has such a wide variety of striking tools that he could do very well mixing things up and getting Strickland to bite. He should set up his punches with kicks to bring the guard down and vice versa, draw Strickland’s hands up to block or across to deflect and land a kick in whichever opening he draws out.

However, while this sounds simple at face value, one of the reasons few have been able to execute on Strickland is because it’s difficult to set up combinations going backward, and Strickland may be the best at constantly moving forward. He peppers his opponents with his shots, never really ending up out of position by overthrowing and because he maintains his posture instead of bobbing and weaving he can kind of continue to march his opponents down. It’s especially difficult to land kicks on Strickland because he’s constantly closing that gap, and staying in his opponent’s face, needing only to worry about his guard’s movement to deflect punches. It’s not too difficult to touch Strickland but it’s extraordinarily difficult to land flush.

It would be smart for Magomedov to invest in the lead leg of Strickland, not because he stands to put much weight on it but because it could do something to slow down his forward movement. Likewise, if he does find himself smothered, going to his level changes early and having success could be another way to slow down that momentum, although Strickland has a very high takedown defense at 85% and underrated grappling of his own. What Magomedov has to do is at least gain enough respect that Strickland doesn’t feel comfortable just walking him down for the duration of the fight.

Early on in the fight, fans will get to see what wins out. The consistent force of Strickland or Magomedov’s ability to set up big moments. Magomedov’s fight IQ is very high and he does have a history of landing big shots, spinning kicks, jumping knees, and big punches. All of this is difficult to do when you are the one being pushed backward, but if Magomedov can create those openings he has to take full advantage of them. What will make the biggest difference in my opinion, is if Magomedov cannot stop Strickland Early, he will be wading into unknown territory.

Strickland’s style is extremely economical, in that it takes less energy to move forward, less energy to stay postured rather than slip and weave and he doesn’t throw 100% into his shots. This makes him a major problem in the latter rounds as his opponents fade. Not only is this Magomedov’s second UFC fight, but he has never gone five rounds in his entire career, and even his first UFC fight ended in under a minute. It’s a big ask for any unranked fighter to jump into a top 10 UFC fight in their second bout, but it’s even more of an ask when you make it a main event against one of the better five-round specific fighters in the world.

Pick: Sean Strickland to win (-120)

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Michael Pounders

At this point, given the frequency to which he fights and the unmistakable style, handicapping a Sean “Tarzan” Strickland fight is common knowledge. He fights in a uniquely upright stance with his hands glued to the front part of his chin, walks forward almost apathetically, pumps his jab relentlessly, rarely wears damage, and looks to win fights on the back of volume and forward pressure.

His defensive awareness, demonstrated by his high guard, has been increased since his knockout loss to Alex Pereira. Since that fight, Strickland is even more reluctant to let his right hand go, instead favoring to keep it on his chin to protect against power hooks, the same punch Pereira landed to finish him. This results in Strickland rarely throwing power shots of his own, unless he has a clearly exhausted or vulnerable opponent.

While his jab and high guard help protect his chin, his midsection and lead leg are vulnerable to damage. He’s tough and has excellent cardio which helps him absorb shots to both areas with little reaction; but, still, both are avenues for his opponent’s attacks.

On the other end of the spectrum from Strickland’s recognizable style and consistency in the cage, we have Abusupiyan “Abus” Magomedov, a PFL alum who has only accrued 19 seconds of octagon time in 2 years. Those 19 seconds included a violent and impressive knockout win in his UFC debut back in September of 2022.

Prior to the UFC, Magomedov racked up a 24-4 record with 20 finish wins and rarely saw a fight exit round 2. He tends to fight with aggression and violence from the opening seconds. He has a cracking calf kick, a devastating right hand, and an unmistakable desire to end the fight as quickly as possible. Given his style, Magomedov often brings the fight to his opponent with immediate pressure and, sometimes, wild, combinations.

He, like many power punchers, uses his calf kick to immobilize his opponent and create a stationary target for him to unload on. Outside of the calf kick and power, though, Magomedov’s striking is fairly basic and his cardio unproven. He’s getting a real shot against an established ranked UFC veteran and a win, especially a finish win, would significantly increase Magomedov’s stock.

Just like last week, I think the most valuable way to analyze this fight is to spend more time examining the lines to find value rather than breaking the fighters down in depth. Especially considering the unique situation with Strickland being one of the most active fighters on the roster and Magomedov only having 19 seconds of octagon time in 2 years.

We know Strickland will likely fight the same way he always does and we’re projecting how Magomedov will attack this challenge with little data to work with. What we do know for certain: Strickland has an excellent jab, is defensively aware- especially after the Pereira knockout, and uses volume and cardio as his primary weapons.

Meanwhile, Magomedov has real power, likes to blitz early, and has unproven cardio. Given this matchup stylistically, logic dictates that if Strickland can survive the first round or two of Magomedov’s power, he’ll be in prime position to pull away with the fight. Strickland has been cracked and finished before but is more defensively cautious; so, while the +235 price tag for Magomedov to win by knockout is a solid number, I don’t think it has a 30% chance of happening as the implied odds suggest.

Disappointingly, Strickland by knockout is almost the same number: +250. Strickland only has 1 knockout since 2020 and typically doesn’t carry much power. I do think him by finish is more likely than normal given Magomedov’s tendency to swing big, the likelihood of him gassing out, and Strickland’s relentless volume; but, at +250, the value just isn’t there.

So, looking deeper, I think the sharper bet is Strickland to win in round 4 (+1700) and round 5 (+2000). Magomedov has gone three rounds before, in the PFL, but hasn’t fought someone with Strickland’s cardio and pressure.

So, I, along with many others, see a real path for Strickland to find a late finish against an exhausted opponent. But, rather than returning only +250 for the knockout, we’re getting significantly more value to focus on the “late” part of late round finish. I like taking half of your normal bet, or half a unit, and putting it on a round five finish and the other half of the bet on round five. Strickland’s cardio and pressure should overwhelm Magomedov over time and the finish should be there late.

Best Bet: Strickland to win in round 4 (+1700) and in round 5 (+2000)

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The post Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov staff predictions | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

While Lipski looks to make it two in a row, Gatto, who stands in her way will be fighting back from her first career loss. Having gone 10 fights undefeated in her pro career, her momentum was halted last May by Tracy Cortez via decision, to bring her to 10-1 pro and 2-1 in the UFC.

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Betting Odds

Gatto comes into the fight as the betting favorite at -232.

• Ariane Lipski: +176 (BetUS)
• Melissa Gatto: -232 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Melissa Gatto is a long rangy fighter with whip-like punching combinations. She has slick offensive boxing, and readily charges forward because she has so much confidence in her guard if she is taken down. This allows her to more than often control the center of the octagon and pressure her opponents to the fence, where she can shoot and initiate a clinch on her terms. One of the specific ways she will shoot is by using a wide left hook and setting up her opponent to lean away from the shot, exposing the hips, and allowing her to get in deep. Instead of chasing the takedown from here though, she is more likely to swivel and sell out to get to the back in order to drag her opponent down and secure hooks. She is very dangerous off of her back with both chokes but also is quick to jump the armbar if her opponents turns into her.

Her lack of fear of the takedown again causes her to charge in at times, and only one fighter has been able to capitalize on this by taking her down, stopping her submission attempts and earning the win with control. Gatto’s style is a double edged sword because she is happy to take risks or put herself in the ‘losing’ position because she believes she will get the finish at some point.

Ariane Lipski is technically not the level of grappler that Gatto is but her gameplan should not include engaging where she doesn’t need to. Although Gatto’s reach may make it difficult to find her way offensively, Lipski does have the sharper striking in terms of getting her punches from A to B without those wide looping swings. She has slick kicks as well, and overall more educated kickboxing. Where the difference is most pronounced however is in her clinch. In order to win, Lipski should do everything she can and take every opportunity to punch Gatto for clinching with her, Lipski has great defense and tends to find the knees to the body and elbows in every clinch exchange. She is also very good at throwing combinations in the pocket in order to counter her opponents’ single shots.

Lipski’s biggest hole in her game is where Gatto shines the most. Lipski has tremendous takedown defense and scary ability to punish her opponents for trying, but when they do get her down she often lacks a plan B. She can get stuck on her back unable to sweep or find a way to her feet. Likewise when she is on top, if she lands inside the guard she is often stuck there as well unable to open or pass. If she finishes a scramble in half guard, she is much more likely to find her way into side control or mount much easier, and she does do a good job of forcing her opponents into awkward and unusual positions, but against a grappler the next level up like Gatto this will be exponentially more difficult than it has been previously.

Prediction

In terms of style, arguably both match up very well with each other. Gatto’s biggest holes in her game have been charging in with very high punching which leaves her open to takedowns or clinch strikes, the latter being a specialty of Lipski.

Lipski is extremely game and durable in any position, even if she does end up in top position, she could very well maintain a level of safety even if she is unable to get off any significant offense, likewise on the bottom, while she may not have the ability to fight her way back to her feet or sweep, there is a good likelihood she avoids the submission threat and scrambles enough to negate the ground and pound.

Therefore the best bet would be the fight to go the distance, however, no major betting sites provide this option. Instead, go with fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -150, a safer bet than Lipski to win at +176 but a better value and payout than Gatto at -232.

Prediction: Fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-150)

The post Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto prediction | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Benoit “God of War” St. Dennis is 2-1 in the UFC. He dropped his UFC debut in a violent decision where St. Dennis absorbed an absurd amount of power shots but didn’t go out. He rebounded with back-to-back finish wins.

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Betting Odds

Bonfim is a highly touted prospect and is getting the respect of oddsmakers in this one.

• Ismael Bonfim: -295 (BetUS)
• Benoit Saint-Denis: +250 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Bonfim is a highly-skilled, well-schooled, and powerful striker who uses footwork at range and in-the-pocket vision to land lethal damage without absorbing much himself.

In his debut, Bonfim faced one of the most dangerous finishers in the division: McKinney. McKinney is known for starting out with extreme aggression, yet, it was Bonfim who likely won the first round. He accomplished this by immediately pushing the pace, bringing the fight forward, and working the body.

Both Bonfim brothers have killer body shots which they land with ill-intent. By working the body early, Bonfim was able to slow down the hyper-aggressive McKinney, exploit his already questionable gas tank, and force his opponent to be more desperate in round 2. Then, he waited for his opportunity and exploded for a highlight reel flying knee knockout.

I break that fight down to illustrate just how tactical and strategic Bonfim is in the cage. He can land every strike with precision and power; but, more impressively, he tends to fight with the ideal game plan that not only elevates his dangerous weapons but exploits the weaknesses of his opponent.

St. Denis’ debut went so poorly and he absorbed so much damage that many, myself included, thought he may never fight in MMA again. His striking was labored, he was a step or two behind in speed, pace, and athleticism, and his defensive strategy was to use his face as a punching bag. But, despite the mauling he took, the ex-French Special Forces operative responded in back-to-back fights in impressive fashion.

His striking offense has tightened up a bit, and he’s landed power shots of his own. His striking defense still leaves much to be desired- his head movement is minimal and he leaves his chin exposed- but his chin and toughness are undeniable. St. Denis’ preferred game is to land power shots on the feet to either clip his opponent or force them backward with a high guard, thereby exposing their hips. Once he sees an opening on the hips, St. Denis looks to shoot a takedown.

While he averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, his success rate- against sub-par grapplers- is at 30%. Still, if he gets the fight down, St. Denis wastes no time looking for the finish. He tends to lay heavily on top, land solid ground and pound, and hunt the submission. His strong grappling and submission game are the strengths of his arsenal. St. Denis needs to continue to tighten his standup and find more consistent success with his wrestling, though, to prolong his success.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This fight boils down to levels. Bonfim is simply levels above St. Denis, as the odds suggest, and has the ideal blueprint to follow: Zaleski Dos Santos’ dismantling of St. Denis. Like Zaleski Dos Santos, Bonfim has the striking variety, volume, precision, power, and vision to piece St. Denis up at range and in the pocket. Couple his offensive arsenal with excellent footwork and a clear edge in athleticism and Bonfim should be able to land power shots over and over, exit the exchange safely, and then repeat at his desired rate.

Bonfim lost two of his first three professional fights by submission and another one a few years later. St. Denis has a strong submission game; but, as with most high-level prospects like Bonfim, he’s grown substantially since those losses and is significantly more challenging to get and hold down. I don’t expect St. Denis to find much success with his wrestling, beyond possibly holding Bonfim against the cage for short periods of time. Instead, I think Bonfim’s explosiveness, striking prowess, and footwork will combine to finish St. Denis for the first time in his career. St. Denis absorbed an insane amount of damage in his debut; and, while that showed heart, toughness, and cardio, it still took a toll. I think Bonfim will be the first put St. Denis out. I like Bonfim by knockout and in a parlay with Morales, check out that article on the website for a deep breakdown.

Best Bets: Bonfim by knockout (+185) and Bonfim (-295) and Morales (-225) in a parlay (-107)

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The post Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

As one of four recent additions to the women’s roster in June, the undefeated Ivana Petrovic is being called upon to bolster the talent of the women’s Flyweight division. She’s being thrown into the fire in her first fight though as she draws the former Muay Thai champion and UFC veteran in Luana Carolina. A win for either fighter will surely push them to the next tier of challenge as they look to claw their way up the rankings of a division stacked with talent.

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Betting Odds

The odds currently have Petrovic as the favorite as she’ll have a clear advantage in the wrestling and grappling department. Fans of betting the underdog should be happy with the odds for Carolina as well as she’ll have just as clear of an advantage on the feet:

• Ivana Petrovic: -230 (BetUS)
• Luana Carolina: +180 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Looking at the debuting fighter first, Ivana Petrovic comes into the UFC at 6-0 with a title win and defense in Ares FC. Petrovic, 28 years old, is a very strong grappler with a high fight IQ. She’s very intelligent in the way she picks her entries for takedown attempts and controls the pace to conserve her energy as the fight wears on.

She excels at getting takedowns from the clinch or timing her opponents coming forward to engage in striking and shoots for the hips – often securing the takedown with an outside trip. She doesn’t panic if takedowns don’t come early; she has shown the ability to adjust and work for the takedown from different positions and angles whether that be in space or on the fence. When she’s in top control, she’s extremely methodical in her transitions to more dominant positions. Her best and most prominent transition in her time in Ares FC is the knee-on-belly to full mount transition. She makes it look easy as she successfully took mount almost every time she obtained side control. Once in the mount, her goal is to smash until her opponent makes a decision to give the back or try to get up. She’s shown good submission skills in her last couple of fights, finishing both by rear naked choke from this back position.

Where Petrovic will find herself at a disadvantage is in the striking. Though you’ll see steady improvement in her stand-up as her career has progressed, it’s evident that her game plan is not to stand and trade. When she does use her striking, it is mostly 1s and 2s with occasional hooks if her opponent covers up. She’s started to incorporate kicks as well both to the leg and head which will be useful in setting up takedowns as she gets more comfortable on the feet. Her strikes get a bit sluggish and are telegraphed, especially when she’s coming forward. One thing to like about her standing game is her footwork and head movement. There are moments she gets caught when focusing on her striking defense, but she has flashed fluid footwork and slick head movement to keep herself out of trouble when her opponent blitzes. She’ll use this footwork to set up well-timed takedowns as her opponents overcommit coming forward and run into her.

I’d love to see Ivana continue to grow in the striking department; not so she can stand and trade with some of the highest-level female strikers on the planet, but so she can hide her wrestling and be a threat in other areas of MMA enough that her opponents can’t solely focus on keeping her from taking them down. Quicker hands and working the body with both her hands and kicks would do wonders for her. As of now, Petrovic has had the most success in waiting for an inevitable mistake by her opponents and taking advantage. Though it speaks to her fighting IQ that she can make these reads and react so effectively, you can’t rely on fighters at the UFC level to make so many mistakes you can capitalize on that you are consistently successful.

Her opponent, Luana Carolina, is almost the exact opposite type of fighter. A former Muay Thai champion, 30-year-old Carolina loves to utilize her elbows and knees in her striking to get the better of clinch exchanges as well as kicks at range. She’ll throw punches as well, but these are usually a bit wild and looping as she looks to land powerful shots. Luana uses forward pressure when throwing strikes that doesn’t stop until she runs into her opponent and forced a clinch. Once in the clinch, she shows off her Muay Thai background by controlling her opponent’s posture and driving in powerful knees and elbows. Though she can get a bit wild when swinging with her hands, she’s shown toughness and resilience (outside of the brutal KO loss to Molly McCann) throughout her UFC career as well as improvements in her biggest weak point: wrestling.

It’s a tale as old as time: the striking specialist transitions to MMA and struggles in wrestling and their opponents’ game plan immediately focuses on that. This was the story for Carolina. In her last 4 fights, Luana has been taken down 7 times for a total of 18 minutes and 36 seconds of control. During the beginning of this stretch, opponents took her down from the clinch as they were able to secure trips or throws with relative ease. We’ve seen continuous progress in her ability to defend takedowns, but she still has been taken down 2 times in each of her last 3 bouts. When she’s on the ground, her grappling doesn’t seem much better. She’s been controlled and opponents have been able to attack submissions effectively so far in the UFC. She hasn’t fought someone with the level of ground game as Ivana Petrovic, so her transition and submission defense should both be focal points of her training camp this time around.

Prediction

After breaking down the game of both Petrovic and Carolina, it seems evident that the outcome will be dictated by the exchanges in the clinch. Both women operate very effectively in this position with polar opposite goals. While Carolina will be looking for space to land knees and elbows, Petrovic will be trying to keep the fight in close where she can slowly work her way into position to secure a takedown and work her top game. If this fight stays at range and Petrovic is not able to get Luana down, it should be an easy night for Carolina; she can keep range and work a diverse set of punches and kicks while moving and staying off of the cage. The same drastic movement that Luana comes forward with can be seen in her defense as well as she will often back herself to the cage to the point where she’s squared with it and very susceptible to being grabbed and taken down along the fence so it’ll be critical for her to be aware of her position at all times and stay out of the danger zones.

For Petrovic, her path to victory seems just as simple: use her footwork and timing to enter into range for clinches or time a takedown as Carolina pushes forward. Though she works best when she gets her opponent down in space, I’m confident that she’ll be capable of keeping Carolina down and working her transitions to better posture up for ground n pound. Carolina will need to be extremely careful not to give up any submission opportunities as Petrovic will be constantly looking for any fault in the defense and will attack it for the finish. We’ll need to see improvements in Ivana’s striking as well if she wants to come out of this one without wearing a ton of damage. Her striking doesn’t always hide her takedown attempts well and can be easily stuffed by experienced fighters such as Luana.

Women in their debut have gone 3-4 this year in the UFC (one fight featured two debutants, so 2-3 otherwise). The year began with an 0-3 skid for the onboarding fighters but the two most recent have come out on top. I tend to lean more toward the striker with UFC experience in matchups against new fighters with little striking to speak of, but I think the fight IQ and wrestling of Petrovic will be the difference-maker here. Luana has great Muay Thai, but I believe Ivana will be able to control the clinch and be successful in flooring her opponent. Luana has shown to be too forward with her movement and doesn’t seem to be aware of when to stop. This puts her in these clinch situations on the fence and Ivana excels in these spots. She understands the correct hook placement and posture in the clinch to get into a dominant position and look for trips, something Carolina has shown to be susceptible to in the past.

If Carolina can keep the fight at range and if she is able to overpower Petrovic in the clinch and win position, she can deal a lot of damage to Ivana who has shown to get rocked by elbows in her past fights. Out of the two scenarios though, Petrovic’s feels more realistic and therefore I’m going with her to take this one. Carolina has been submitted in the past and threatened a few other times, so I wouldn’t put a submission win for Petrovic out of the question.

Pick: Petrovic to win inside the distance (+190)

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The post Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina prediction | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

UFC veteran, Max “Pain” Griffin, 37, is over a decade older than his opponent. As a professional, Griffin is 19-9 but is 7-7 in the UFC. Tough as nails, Griffin has only been finished once in the UFC while he’s racked up three finish wins of his own.

Morales opened with respect from the books but has still grown as the favorite throughout the week.

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Betting Odds

Morales is the betting favorite at odds of -225 before UFC on ESPN 48 this weekend.

• Michael Morales: -225 (BetUS)
• Max Griffin: +190 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Morales is a well-schooled, highly technical, intelligent, patient, and dangerous fighter with a complete skillset in the cage. He tends to fight patiently, setting up his power shots with a stinging jab, solid feints, and athletic footwork. This style shows a maturity beyond his age.

His jab, a quick and stiff shot, might be his best attack and he uses it often to dictate pace and space. As he breaks down his opponent with high-level striking and footwork, Morales looks to create openings for well-timed and explosive combinations that have enough heat to end the fight quickly.

Beyond his offensive striking, Morales is also a National Champion wrestler. While his offensive wrestling is effective, he primarily finds success using his stout defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing where he often has the edge on the feet. The two question marks that surround Morales’ game are his defensive awareness and inconsistency in checking leg kicks.

While Morales is patient and technical, he is a bit hittable. This “hittability” doesn’t appear to be from a lack of defensive ability, but rather a lack of awareness when he’s on the attack. While flowing, he sometimes ignores his own defense. This is a small concern and one that has looked better and better in each of his fights.

More concerningly, though, is Morales’ lack of consistency in checking leg kicks. Because he keeps a boxing stance with more weight on his front leg and so much of his game is dependent on his footwork, opponents can find success chopping the tree. Morales, thus far, has just accepted leg kicks and kept going, rather than checking them. He’ll need to start checking those kicks because relying on toughness and youth isn’t sustainable.

Griffin, at this point, is a gatekeeper or test for prospects. He does a few things really well, tends to struggle against the same few attacks, and requires a prospect to have a complete game to beat him. Much like Neil Magny, the other gatekeeper- to a much higher degree- in the division, Griffin has excellent cardio, strong clinch wrestling, reliable volume, and a chin that can withstand real damage. Griffin also has the X-Factor of real power which he tends to ramp up as the fight goes on.

His typical style is to use pressure, through a heavy jab and leg kick, early to crash distance, get his opponent against the cage, and land elbows and knees while weaponizing cardio. Prospects who can’t handle pressure, clinch wrestling, or have reliable cardio rarely pass his test. However, fighters with those three abilities can succeed against “Pain” with well-timed counter shots, straight punches, and footwork.

Griffin tends to move linearly with the same jab, leg kick, and hook combination. High-level strikers can exploit the predictability, land their own straight counter shots, and exit the pocket, causing Griffin to chase for 15 minutes. Still, given his chin and cardio, opponents often need to do this for the full fight while still being weary of his power.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The popular handicap for Griffin backers in this fight is his power and leg kicks. The strategically ignored aspect of that handicap is Morales’ progression as a fighter and his overall fight IQ.

At only 23 years old, Morales will continue to improve fight in and fight out. That, plus his impressive fight IQ and patience in the cage suggests he knows and will be preparing for both Griffin’s power and leg kicks. While Morales has been a bit hittable in the past and hasn’t consistently checked leg kicks, his youth, and intelligence suggest that he will improve in both areas during camp.

Meanwhile, at 37, Griffin making significant improvements is less likely. At 7-7 in the UFC, there is a clear blueprint to beating Griffin: volume, defensive wrestling, and straight punches. Morales has all 3 in spades. He has excellent volume and cardio, National Championship caliber wrestling, and his best strikes come right down the barrel.

Prospects all have to pass certain tests to continue their track and this test for Morales is simple: have you grown? I’ll happily bet on Morales’ growth and ability to expose Griffin’s weaknesses rather than the other way around. I like Morales by decision as a straight play and love him in a parlay with Bonfim this weekend.

Best Bets: Morales (-225) and Bonfim (-295) parlay (-107) and Morales by Decision (+165)

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Kevin Lee’s momentum would shift however, losing four of his last five with the outlier being a career-highlight KO over Gregor Gillespie. In an attempt to regain footing, Lee left the promotion in 2022, joining his former rival’s league in Khabib Nurmagomedov’s EAGLE FC. There he would defeat UFC veteran Diego Sanchez. Now coming off this win, Lee is returning to the UFC, finally with the opportunity to test his wrestling ability against the best of the East.

Rinat Fakhretdinov may not be familiar to every fan yet. With just two UFC fights under his belt, the majority of fans have seen just the tip of the iceberg. Fakhretdinov is on a 19-fight win streak, with just one loss in his pro career. The Russian “Gladiator” will look to continue his momentum into his highest-profile opponent to date, Kevin Lee represents Fakhretdinov’s potential coming out party as a true contender to keep tabs on.

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Betting Odds

Kevin Lee will see himself as the underdog in his UFC return. At +166, that is the amount you look to profit for each $100 wagered.

• Rinat Fakhretdinov: -217 (BetUS)
• Kevin Lee: +166 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Although both men are primarily known for their grappling ability, it’s very common for this to translate into the fight almost as if they cancel each other out. Expect some good striking exchanges but Kevin Lee should have a slight edge. Lee is very basic in his striking, but under the tutelage of Firs Zahabi, he has become more educated in his shot selection and setups. He stands conventional and does a good job of changing the lead hand start for his combos, sometimes favoring a stiff jab, and other times stepping in a with a long cross to set up the lead hook as the power shot.

Lee fought the majority of his UFC career at Lightweight, and you can see the additional weight at 170 lbs in his movement. He is a bit less quick on the mark, but he carries decent power and if he can gain his timing it works to offset some of that added weight. He also has good body kicks and mixes them up to the head well if he can get some forward momentum going in his combination, looking to shift step and land with the lead leg high.

Rinat Fakhretdinov is a hard puzzle to solve. He typically strikes just enough to set up his takedowns but has tremendous power in his right hand so he needs to be respected. He is very active with the lead hand and leg, chaining between his jab, lead inside low kick, and a check left hook. In Kevin Lee’s last two fights, he had trouble with low kicks. Daniel Rodriguez was consistently able to touch the leg, and Diego Sanchez who landed less frequently did tremendous damage with just a few strikes to the calf. Fakhretdinov does not commit so hard to his kicks to definitely damage Lee in the same way, as they are usually more used to set up something else, but if he does take this read and commit when Lee does not expect it, it could be a very dangerous tool.

Fakhretdinov fences with his lead weapons to set up two things, a big overhand right counter, and a driving double leg. He is extremely well versed in a body lock system in every area, but it hugging the hips and ripping them off the fence into a trip, or maintaining control on the mat from the waist until his opponents open their guard so he can pass. He is odd in his use of the very low waist look inside his opponent’s guard, he almost sprawls deep with his grip tight and head tucked but gives his opponent very few options he can’t capitalize on. He is also extremely active with his ground and pound once he does pass the guard, raining heavy shots and constantly repositioning himself so as the stay stuck on top like a blanket.

Kevin Lee is not so different in his wrestling prowess, he himself has a tremendous blast double, but what sets him even more apart is his ability to shoot and fail a single leg just to readjust, turn the corner and finish on an opponent who seemingly already won the exchange with their sprawl. Once Lee has a hold of one leg, he is relentless in pursuing the takedown’s finish. Lee’s game once in an established top position is much more Jiu Jitsu based than Fakhretdinov, where the Russian looks to smash down until his opponents give up the back, Lee uses more straight grappling tactics to force their back. From there he has great back control and one of the more dangerous rear naked chokes in the game.

Prediction

Both men have tools to win on the feet and on the mat, but the transitionary area, who can actually land their takedown and maintain some level of control when they do get on top will probably win.

One of the other knocks on Lee’s career is he has been known to slow down in some fights, and against a wrestler who can maybe finally match his scrambling skills there’s a good chance he starts to fade first. This is why I do think that Fakhretdinov has the edge.

Fakhretdinov to win by decision is the smartest play for this matchup considering the generous +170 odds.

Pick: Fakhretdinov to win by decision (+170 at BetUS)

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Both Romanov and Ivanov are ranked heavyweight fighters who have contending aspirations. In this bout, a win will re-enter themselves into the top 10 status, but with a loss, they face the threat of getting cut given the perpetual defeat. This high-stakes affair for ranked fighters is unique and will certainly result in an entertaining affair.

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Betting Odds

The commonality of styles accompanied by each having similar levels of success rationalizes the -110 price tag in each direction.

• Alexander Romanov: -140 (BetUS)
• Blagoy Ivanov: +110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Alexander Romanov was, not too long ago, touted as one of the most exciting heavyweight prospects on the roster. Beyond having an undefeated record, the style and dominance in the octagon of Romanov excited many fans, particularly because his style is the antithesis of so many, that is, wrestling over all else.

When Romanov is fighting his best, he shoots a tackle-like takedown early in the fight, controls his opponent, and inflicts devastating ground and pound. This style, of using a blitz, tackle tactic suits him coming in as heavy as possible come fight night, but, he has experimented with coming in light and agile in the past, and this experiment has cost him. So, I expect him to be heavy, but in shape, and if Romanov is that, then he can fight in his high-end prospect ways. If done, I do believe he will rinse and repeat the style of tackling his opponent and finishing it on the mat, but if he fails to secure an early takedown, he may need to strike to set up an angle for a shot, and the longer he strikes, the more susceptible he is with wearing damage and falling behind in the fight.

Placing importance in the grappling department is certainly important for Blagoy Ivanov as well. The difference though between him and Romanov is that where Romanov relies on athletic ability and natural strength to secure a blitz takedown, Ivanov prefers to grind his way to the ground. He does so often by pressuring his opponent the best he can, and then, getting the fight against the cage where he can slowly work his way to the ground. On paper, a pressure striker who prefers to grapple in the subpar grappling division that is the heavyweight division is highly successful, but the issue for Ivanov is that while he wants to pressure to close distance, he needs to do so through a hyper-cautious way given he is less than agile coupled with him not having the severe power threat his opponents often possess, thus making him have a cautious-pressure approach which is certainly an oxymoron.

In this fight, Ivanov will have a key advantage if he can pass the initial test of Romanov. That advantage is the ability to patiently and methodically land strikes on the feet and perform well against the cage. While the case, Ivanov will need to show the ability to stuff the unique takedowns of Romanov, and while Ivanov does have strong grappling defense, if he is tripped up and put on his back, the top game of Romanov will likely prove too much for him.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The way in which this fight will start will be largely dependent on how heavy Romanov comes into this fight. If light, I expect Romanov to strike from the outside, and then, Ivanov close distance and make this a fight against the cage. If heavy, I expect Romanov to blitz Ivanov with a tackle-like takedown. Trusting Romanov will come in heavy, I believe Romanov will indeed blitz Ivanov, and given the slow nature of Ivanov coupled with Romanov having good takedown offense early, I expect Romanov to get this fight to the mat and quickly inflict damage, which will either end the fight or allow him to find success later through a damaged Ivanov.

Pick: Romanov to win (-140 odds at BetUS)

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In his first fight in over a year, Kutateladze will be looking to get back on track with another win against a talented prospect in Brener. This will be both fighters’ first time fighting in the APEX and you can expect to hear plenty of punches and kicks land in the empty arena as we are likely to see a great display of striking.

There’s been a lot of hype surrounding Kutateladze in the MMA community since before his debut win over elite Lightweight prospect Mateusz Gamrot. Time away from the octagon has seen the hype fizzle out, but he’s looking to remind everyone why he deserves to be fighting ranked opponents as he will try to solve the puzzle of the ground-game specialist Elves Brener. Brener is riding a huge upset victory of Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut and the UFC was quick to give him another killer to see just how much talent the Chute Box prospect really possesses.

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Betting Odds

The odds for this one are skewed heavily toward the Georgian Viking. With so much time away from the octagon for his opponent, Brener at such high odds could be a steal given his ground expertise.

• Guram Kutateladze: -600 (BetUS)
• Elves Brener: +400 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Returning to the octagon for only the third time in the last three years is Guram Kutateladze. The Georgian product is 31 years old with a pro record of 12-3 and over 70 K1/Muay Thai bouts so he has plenty of fight experience. Guram has faced challenges with his health outside of the octagon that has thwarted his rise in the UFC, but his two fights since joining the promotion are against elite talent at 155 lbs.: Damir Ismagulov and Mateusz Gamrot. He’s 1-1 in these fights, however, could (and should) be 2-0. Before his controversial loss to Ismagulov, Guram was on a 10-fight win streak that included 5 knockouts.

With all of his kickboxing experience, he’s a very high-level striker with wrestling skills that are not often seen in those with a striking pedigree such as Kutateladze. He has great movement and reactions on the feet, bouncing in and out of range and using lots of head movement to keep himself off the center line. He loves to throw in combination but has very good power that is capable of dropping opponents in one shot. His combos are well thought out and often end in kicks to the leg or body as his opponent looks to get out of range. His footwork is really shown off when he throws these combos as he’s always well-balanced to keep from overthrowing and allowing himself to be open for counters. His best weapon on the feet is the kick to the body which he’s very effective at landing both against orthodox and southpaw fighters with tons of force and speed.

Usually with a fighter like this, we highlight their lack of wrestling. Guram is not like other fighters. He’s shown very impressive takedown defense and even effective defense from his back to quickly get back to his feet. His takedown defense is aided by his great reaction times as he’s able to go from defending strikes to fighting for underhooks, sprawling or preventing the takedown in other ways with little delay. When he’s on his back, he uses all four limbs to defend and work to different positions to create space and squeak out from the bottom. He’ll use wrestling offensively every once in a while, but given his only time in the UFC was against two high-level wrestlers, it hasn’t been a focal point for him thus far in the octagon. The biggest question for Guram will be how he’s spent the time away to get better and stay ready. He showed little ring rust in his fight against Ismagulov after taking almost two years away, so I’m betting on him looking good but it’s important to note his absence.

He’ll be taking on the 25-year-old Chute Box product, Elves Brener. Brener is 14-3 and is currently on a three-fight win streak. Like Guram, the outcome of his last fight is debatable as he won a split decision against Zubaira Tukhugov though most had it going the way of his opponent. He’s a submission expert, holding 11 wins by way of sub with only one finish by KO, but he was able to keep the fight competitive against Tukhugov in a stand-up war over 15 minutes. His toughness should come as no surprise for most as he hails from the famous/infamous Chute Box camp where hard sparring is an integral part of training.

The area of expertise for Elves is the ground game. Though he has almost a dozen submissions as a pro, his ground-and-pound is equally as impressive. He’s very fluid in transitions between strikes and submissions to continuously pour on pressure. In Brener’s fight against Gabriel Santos pre-UFC, Santos was able to get top control, but Elves displayed great escapes and submission attempts to reverse position or get up against another high-level grappler. In scrambles, he’s quick to react to reverse position to end up on top before continuing an onslaught of attacks. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities to display his takedowns in the UFC but he has flashed good trips/sweeps to force the fight to the mat.

In the striking game, Brener utilizes a very diverse set of strikes to overwhelm and keep his opponent guessing. He has a great jab when he’s fighting in space and has room to come forward. His right hand often follows, but he loops the strike at times and gives his opponent plenty of time to react to slip it and counter. He has good kicks to the leg, body, and head and will target the body with his boxing as well to further switch up the attacks. He’ll throw some crazy strikes too; willing to use spinning elbows, backfists as well as flying knees, and anything else he may come up with in the moment. This gives him a level of danger when his opponent comes forward, but higher-level strikers won’t struggle with it.

Something that is consistent amongst his fights thus far in his career is he doesn’t always eat damage well. His striking defense is mostly his guard to cover the head, often leading the body and legs wide open. In MMA, utilizing just a high guard won’t be enough to stop you from eating power shots. With such small gloves, it’s near impossible to rely on just your hands and shoulders to keep safe. Another critique of his striking is when he comes forward with strikes as he can get too far over his front foot at times which leaves him very open to counter striking especially when the right hand comes looping over top. This gets exacerbated as the fight goes on and he starts to fatigue.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This fight’s odds are heavily favoring Guram as he’s the much cleaner striker with good wrestling and adequate grappling. Elves has a lot of skills on the ground, but he hasn’t shown the ability to impose this game by effectively taking down his opponents. He seems OK with standing and trading in the octagon which has proven costly against fighters who aren’t nearly on the level of Kutateladze on the feet.

Guram has great combos and punishing body kicks that he can land no matter what stance Brener tries to keep. Brener’s striking can be slow and telegraphed which will give Guram plenty of time to counter and land bigger shots. They both have good motors, but Brener’s striking is much more affected by the grind of a 15 minute war which will only widen the gap between the two on the feet as the fight wears on.

If Brener is able to get Guram down and keep top control, his submissions are always incredibly dangerous and would give him his best shot at knocking off the Georgian. However, given the wrestling defense displayed in his fight against Gamrot, I’m confident Guram will be able to keep himself on his feet and force another striking match for Brener.

The only remaining question is if Brener is capable of holding up against the power, pressure and pace of Kutateladze enough to last the full 3 rounds. He took a lot of big strikes against Tukhugov and was rocked against Gabriel Santos, so he hasn’t exactly displayed a Vettori-like chin. I think Guram’s striking will build up damage on Brener over the course of three rounds and he gets him out of there in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Pick: Kutateladze to win inside the distance (-110)

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