Belal Muhammad – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com UFC news, predictions, results Fri, 05 May 2023 23:41:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/thebodylockmma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/cropped-TBL-Logo-Black.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Belal Muhammad – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com 32 32 130349868 Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns prediction | UFC 288 https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/belal-muhammad-vs-gilbert-burns-prediction-ufc-288/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/belal-muhammad-vs-gilbert-burns-prediction-ufc-288/#respond Fri, 05 May 2023 01:24:16 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=43853 Top-five welterweight contenders, Belal Muhammad (22-3; 13-3 in the UFC) and Gilbert Burns (22-5; 15-5 in the UFC) are set to fight in a five-round,...

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Top-five welterweight contenders, Belal Muhammad (22-3; 13-3 in the UFC) and Gilbert Burns (22-5; 15-5 in the UFC) are set to fight in a five-round, title eliminator bout at UFC 288.

Belal Muhammad, riding an 8-fight win streak, is believed by many to be the justified championship contender right now, but rather than waiting patiently for an off-chance shot, he is taking matters into his own hands. Meanwhile, Gilbert Burns, having just fought less than one month ago, is living up to his nickname “Durinho”, meaning ‘tiny tough guy’, as he will fight any fighter at any notice.

With both Belal and Burns being title worthy, this fight will be one where the stakes are high, skill-level impressive, and simply, highly entertaining to watch! Watch Muhammad vs. Burns fight live on ESPN+ PPV this Saturday night (order now).

And don’t forget, if you’re looking to place a bet, sign up to MyBookie using our special link and you can get a sign-up bonus worth up to $1,000 for this event.

Betting Odds

Having faced more title-level challengers in his tenure in the UFC, it is of little surprise to see Gilbert Burns as the slight -130 favorite over the surging Belal Muhammad.

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Breakdown

Belal Muhammad is one of, if not, the most intellectual fighters in the UFC. Similarly to Adesanya, Belal understands how to leverage his intellect once in the octagon, as he is someone who makes few mistakes, and most importantly, makes next to no forced errors whereby he elects to do x when y is the easier path to victory.

Often, for him, the easiest path to victory is through weaponizing his elite cardio through non-stop wrestling. This form of attack was on full display three fights ago, where Belal wrestled his way to victory against the respected Stephen Wonderboy Thompson – respected for both his elite striking and battle-tested takedown defense. Passing the striker test who also has grappling defense was a major milestone for Belal, and his two most recent fights were another big test for him with facing the well-rounded danger of Vincent Luque and elite grappler, Sean Brady. In both the Luque fight and Brady fight, Belal dictated the direction of the fight, where he successfully grappled Luque and decided to keep the fight standing against Brady. This ability to fight wherever he so chooses is an incredible talent, and while many believe the best direction of his fights is to wrestle and win in top position, Belal proved against Brady that he can not only have effective striking but also, striking that can finish the fight.

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Being a renowned grappler who has found significant success on the feet can be certainly applicable to Gilbert Burns. As a former World Jiu-Justu silver and gold medalist, Burns is a highly respectable and feared opponent to grapple with. This fear was on full display in the Khamzat Chimaev fight, as Chimaev seemingly did not want to enter the ground early in the fight with Burns, and while he has stated he should have trusted his wrestling to have success there, the mere fact that Chimaev had some semblance of hesitancy with doing so greatly illustrates the significant threat Burns is off of his back.

Knowing the threat he is off of his back, Burns fights with freedom on the feet, fully willing to overthrow a punch to entice a takedown by his opponent. This style is not all that unique for world-renowned submission specialists, but what is unique to Burns is the technical success he has formed throughout his long tenure in the UFC, as he is truly near elite there. Moreover, Burns, through his many UFC fights, has learned how to blend striking with offensive wrestling, as he is a very talented takedown artist which cannot be said for many submission-threat fighters. Because of this, Burns is now a well-rounded fighter with top 5 welterweight skills in striking, wrestling, and submissions. The positive consequence of this is being 7-2 since his return to the welterweight division back in 2019, with the lone losses coming at the hands of prime Karmu Usman and anticipated two-belt champion, Khamzat Chimaev — in both of those losses, Burns had a near finish against both.

Prediction and Betting Guide

While only Belal or Burns will get a win in this fight, you cannot go wrong backing either of these two fighters, both for this fight and any future bout. But when it comes to choosing the winner, several factors come to play. Notably, weighing the ability Belal can have with weaponizing elite cardio through non-stop pressure against the severe threat of Burns, both in physical acumen and war-type fight experience.

For me, the logical side of my brain says the striking differential will greatly favor Burns and I would be surprised to see him get significantly out-grappled by Belal. While this is the case, my gut says to trust the cardio and intellect of Belal to find a way to victory, as he has passed a variety of tests with flying colors.

So, weighing mind versus gut, the deciding factor for me is that Burns has lost to “wrestlers” in Usman and Chimaev while Belal has beat elite submission artists with power in Luque and Brady. Because of this, I am going Belal here, and because this fight will likely be razor thin if Belal is on the winning side, I am taking him by decision here.

Pick: Belal Muhammad by decision (+180)

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Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady prediction | UFC 280 https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/belal-muhammad-vs-sean-brady/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/belal-muhammad-vs-sean-brady/#respond Thu, 20 Oct 2022 10:33:49 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=40427 Fifth-ranked welterweight Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (21-3-1 professionally; 12-3-1 in the UFC) faces the Philly-King, Sean Brady (15-0 professionally; 5-0 in the UFC), currently...

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Fifth-ranked welterweight Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (21-3-1 professionally; 12-3-1 in the UFC) faces the Philly-King, Sean Brady (15-0 professionally; 5-0 in the UFC), currently ranked #8 in the welterweight division.

Both Belal and Brady have championship aspirations, with the same game plan of reaching the pinnacle of MMA – through grappling. Given the hyper-similarities in fight style coupled with having a combined 13-0 record since the last registered loss rationalizes this bout being incredibly high-level and one of the best-featured prelim bouts you will ever see!

Muhammad vs. Brady will feature on the UFC 280 preliminary card on Saturday. Fight fans in the United States can watch this fight live on ESPN+ before tuning into the ESPN+ PPV later in the afternoon to watch Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev, Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley, and more.

Betting Odds

Sean Brady is a slight -150 favorite over Belal Muhammad, who comes back at a +120 dog.

Fight Breakdown

Belal Muhammad is one of, if not, the most cerebral fighters currently on the UFC roster. Combine his intelligence with very difficult skills to beat, and Muhammad is one of the most challenging puzzles for any welterweight to solve.

The scary piece of the Muhammad puzzle is his newfound addition to his fight preparation, as he is now training with the arguable GOAT, Khabib Nurmagomedov, who will be in his corner come UFC 280 fight night. Khabib is a perfect addition for Muhammad as he looks to fight near the exact same style Khabib employed during his UFC dominance, with wrestling and weaponization of cardio being at the forefront of style. For Muhammad, weaponizing cardio is a trait he perhaps perfected, as he can put on a grappling pace and pressure that drags his opponents into deep waters seemingly fight over fight. Where Khabib can elevate Muhammad from a legitimate top 10 ranked fighter to a belt holder is his success with wrestling, particularly with inflicting damage once a takedown is secured. In the past, Muhammad has done a tremendous job shooting takedowns from a variety of angles and has gotten elite takedown defenders to the mat, but, has struggled to do much, if anything, on the canvas. Knowing he has the skills to get the fight to the mat, Khabib as his teacher, and the intelligence to learn, nets the conclusion that the ground and pound aspect of Belal’s game should be quickly improved and will need to be done if he seeks to beat the best of the best in the division.

Training with Khabib extends beyond grappling evolution alone, as Belal will likely employ a similar tactic on the feet as Khabib did throughout his UFC reign. I expect improvement given the style of striking was quite similar to Khabib prior to his new training, as Belal looks to fight behind a jab and close distance early in the fight, knowing the easiest path to victory is through grappling. If Belal is able to learn a few ancillary additives to fighting bending the jab, his ability to successfully wrestle should only be exacerbated against sound to subpar grappling opponents.

Being a sound grappler in the octagon would be a complete insult to Sean Brady, as he is one of the most talented grapplers in the UFC. To justify this statement, I will reference his most recent fight and competition outside the UFC. For the former, Sean Brady confidently grappled with the elite submission artist of Michael Chiesa in his last fight, and while confidence alone is adorable, the impressive conclusion from that bout is that Brady looked to be leaps and bounds ahead of the talented welterweight grappler of Chiesa on the mat. For the latter, Sean Brady, who routinely competes in grappling-only bouts to keep his mind and body sharp, beat one of the most talented BJJ practitioners, Craig Jones – An IBJJF world No-Gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion as a purple belt, Jones is a two-time ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship silver medallist and a three-time Polaris Pro Grappling champion. This ability, to win grappling-only bouts versus grappling-only competitors, truly showcases the elite skills Sean Brady has in the grappling department.

Somewhat similar to Belal, Brady does look to frequently wrestle in the octagon which showcases a keen sense of awareness for identifying the easiest path to victory; but also like Belal, Brady understands the need for striking prior to wrestling. This need for striking has two main benefits: one, the more the opponent has to worry about defending strikes, the less they can focus on defending a takedown, thus making for an easier time shooting in on a shot; two, when fighting the elite of elite contenders, inflicting damage on the feet will aid in creating defense flaws once on the mat, thus leading to a greater chance of finishing the fight once there. For Brady, while the striking duration is similar to Belal, he differs in striking strategy given he throws with far more power – overhand rights – compared to fighting cautiously behind a jab. The reasoning for this deviance is that Brady is far more comfortable throwing strikes that create the potential for his opponent to land a takedown given he is incredibly confident wherever he is on the mat. So, Brady can throw strikes on the feet with little to no fear, making him an under-the-radar danger there, because he does have serious power which has not fully bloomed thus far in his UFC career.

Prediction

This fight is incredibly interesting in a multitude of facets. On the feet, neither man is highly touted, but each has a game plan which sets up their elite grappling. The difference is Belal looks to use a jab and pressure to put on an unrelenting pace to set up a takedown while Brady throws haymaking blows, fully trusting he can secure a dominating grappling position no matter where he starts on the mat. Knowing the style of each means this fight comes down to the grappling, in particular, whether can Belal maintain the top position against Brady. Because I trust Brady’s grappling allows him to find success wherever the bout takes place on the mat, my answer to that question is no, thus am picking Brady in the fight.

Ultimately, I personally see little paths to victory for Belal – the weaponization of cardio is not an anticipatory weapon in this three-round affair – but, knowing Belal is incredibly intelligent and Khabib is the GOAT with MMA grappling, I cannot discount the fact they may see something I do not. Regardless, based on what has been shown in their fight careers and fight arsenals, I am confidently backing Brady in this matchup.

Bet: Sean Brady to win (-150 odds to win MyBookie)

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UFC on ESPN 34 Predictions: Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2 staff picks, betting odds, fight preview https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-on-espn-34-predictions-vicente-luque-vs-belal-muhammad-2-staff-picks-betting-odds-fight-preview/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-on-espn-34-predictions-vicente-luque-vs-belal-muhammad-2-staff-picks-betting-odds-fight-preview/#respond Fri, 15 Apr 2022 12:58:23 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=36917 Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad will go head-to-head in a rematch at this weekend’s UFC on ESPN 34 event. Luque vs. Muhammad 2 is the...

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Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad will go head-to-head in a rematch at this weekend’s UFC on ESPN 34 event.

Luque vs. Muhammad 2 is the main event of the UFC fight card taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday night. The pair previously fought at UFC 205 back in 2016 and it was Luque who came out on top with a first-round knockout victory.

This Saturday’s fight card also includes five other main card bouts and a preliminary section featuring eight fights.

Read on for our full staff predictions and analysis before Luque vs. Muhammad 2 and get our staff predictions and picks before the main event. Also, find the latest Luque vs. Muhammad UFC betting odds right here.

Betting Odds

  • Luque: -180
  • Muhammad: +155

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Luque and Muhammad offer the potential for both an exciting and a grueling fight as both men really have no quit between them and have shown the ability to rally through bloody and drawn-out wars in the octagon. Both men are also very well-rounded so expect a full spectrum of martial arts demonstration. Both men tend to prefer boxing as their primary means of striking, although Luque mixes in elbows and knees a bit more, the latter of which often comes once he finds his opponents hurt. He likes to use the jumping knee as an entry point as his opponent is backed to the cage, where he can then land his elbows and dirty box, but before any of this, he actually utilizes very long boxing. Belal likewise does best with his hands, although also chains in some nice kicks. His game plan is usually to push forward and box his opponent in against the cage with lateral strikes, wide hooks and straights negates their movement. IN response they have to explode away while Muhammad efficiently hunts them down again and eventually shoots.

Both men are very good grapplers, but the threat comes from different areas. Muhammad is a better wrestler, his go to takedowns often being deep double legs, but he will transition to a low waist lock or high crotch to finish by lifting and dumping his opponent. He then consistently breaks them down by slowly passing and peppering with low impact shots enough to create openings, but which also add up over time. Luque, although also deadly in top position with good ground and pound, is likely the most dangerous in the front headlock position, as his go to submissions are between Anacondas and Darc chokes. The biggest worry for Muhammad constantly looking to shoot as he did most recently against wonderboy would be getting caught by Luque in his most deadly position.

Ultimately on the outside, Luque is a bit crisper and cleaner in his striking but Muhammad sets a bit of a better pace and is a bit more mobile. Both men will want to dominate the center of the octagon so that is the first battle. If Luque can do so I think he lands the more damaging and precise shots and puts Muhammad off of his game enough that when shooting the opportunity for the submission will be there at some point. If Muhammad earns the center, Luque could be in for a longer night, defending takedowns against the cage and having to rally back at points. Of the two possibilities, I think that Luque is a bit more educated in his striking, and in the early exchanges he will earn enough respect that begins to control things.

Prediction: Luque to win

Michael Pounders

Luque is an extremely well-rounded fighter who doesn’t just use his varied skillset to win fights but to end them. Of his 21 wins, 11 have come by KO/TKO and 8 have come by submission. On the feet, Luque perpetually moves forward. He walks behind a jab but is willing to throw one to land two. This is because Luque has what might be the best chin in the entire UFC. He can eat clean shots, barely react, and throw a combination in return. When he lets his hands go, Luque can strike with high volume, accuracy, and power. He typically takes a more boxing-heavy approach, keeps his combinations tight, and hunts the chin of his opponent. If the fight hits the mat, Luque is a talented scrambler and submission artist. Often having the edge in strength, Luque is able to stuff takedown attempts or reverse position in a scramble. If he is stuck in bottom position, Luque has a variety of submissions in his arsenal that he can use to end the fight, even from his back. Essentially, Luque is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division regardless of where the fight takes place. His primary weakness is getting outworked, whether on the feet or in the clinch. If someone can neutralize Luque’s offense, they can volume or pressure their way to a victory.

When considering pressure, Muhammad comes to mind. He is currently on a 6-fight win streak, largely on the back of weaponizing his cardio and out-thinking his opponent. Muhammad is a talented, fundamental, and relentless wrestler. From the first second of the fight to the last, Muhammad crashes distance, gets in tight, and makes a MMA fight into a grueling war of attrition. His typical approach is to pump a jab out early to find range and continue moving forward to press his opponent up against the cage. From here, Muhammad will clinch, keep head position, and look to drag his opponent down. He averages 2.2 takedowns per fight but only at a 33% clip. This is because he is as successful treating the clinch as a kind of vertical takedown, where Muhammad can apply pressure with his head and chest while controlling his opponent. If the fight to the mat, Muhammad is a position over submission type of fighter. He lays heavy, drains the cardio of his opponent, and grinds out the round on top. He is suffocating on the mat and rarely makes mistakes that create submission or get up opportunities. Muhammad is able to implement this grueling and grinding style because of his elite cardio and fight IQ. The primary weakness of Muhammad is his striking. He can strike well enough to get in tight but often does not do much damage or land with high accuracy. His striking is more a method to wrestle than a method to win.

Common consensus would be that if Luque keeps the fight standing, he’ll get a finish or a wide win. If Muhammad can get it down, he’ll likely win. I see half of that statement as true. If Luque can keep the fight on the feet, his striking is so far and away beyond Muhammad’s that Luque should win convincingly. However, while Muhammad is a top-tier wrestler, because of Luque’s submission game and natural strength, I see the grappling exchanges being closer than some expect. In the end, I like Luque to do damage on the feet and create enough scrambles to neutralize the neutralizer himself.

Prediction: Luque to win

Joe Pounders

Luque is a calculated killer inside the octagon. What I mean by this is that no matter where the fight ensues, he has the skills necessary to finish his opponent at any moment – 11 of his 21 wins are by TKO/KO and 8 of his 21 wins are by submission. This description of a “calculated killer” coupled with the impressive track record of success, against elite competition, is perhaps all that is needed to understand the threat he is when in the octagon.

Although the description is all that is needed, diving into the details of how he fights will aid in predicting the winner in this specific matchup. On the feet, Luque has athletic in-and-out movement. When he moves inside, he has heavy combinations with his hands, resembling that of fellow elite welterweight, and his close friend, Gilbert Burns. Often, Luque has the ability to keep the fight in a dirty boxing range, given his chin will hold up against any attacks. Continually, when in close, grappling presents itself to Luque if he elects to change the direction of the fight. This change of direction does not occur often – average 0.64 takedowns per fight – as Luque has had a significant amount of success on the feet; but, Luque, being an elite submission artist, does have the capability to offensively wrestle which is often only done by the truly elite submission artists in the UFC. In total, Luque has the power, ground game, chin, and success over the strong competition – he has won 10 of his last 11 fights – to truly warrant him a title-caliber challenger in a very tough division.

Since having lost to Luque back in 2016, Muhammad is on an impressive run up the welterweight division in his own regard, as he is 10-1-1 in his last 12 fights. Interestingly, Muhammad has finished just one of his wins since 2017, which is drastically different from the style of fighting of Luque.

Knowing Muhammad is a decision-type fighter is not surprising whatsoever, as he elects to put his opponent through a grueling 15-minute affair knowing doing so maximizes his best attributes as a fighter. What I mean by this is Muhammad employs an elite combination of non-stop pressure that is finished by takedown after takedown. He does this to not only control the fight but also, to weaponize his elite cardio. This desire regarding how to fight further illustrates the single-greatest attribute Muhammad has inside the octagon – his intelligence.

Often, Dominick Cruz, the former bantamweight champion, is touted as being the most cerebral fighter in the UFC; but, Muhammad has a strong case for being put in the same category as Cruz as he understands how to transition natural intelligence into a fighting tool. This ability is extremely unique, and thus, makes him a difficult fight for anyone that faces him, as he leaves his ego at the door and elects to choose the path of least resistance for him to secure the victory – clinch-wrestling contrary to staying on his feet. The reasoning for this, particularly against the top of the division, is that Muhammad lacks the power and overall striking acumen to match his opponent; thus, if his opponent can stop the clinch-wrestling attack of Muhammad, he will likely find it difficult to win if kept on the feet.

On paper, the skills of Luque should be able to prevent the non-stop clinch-wrestling attack of Muhammad. And, if done, the disparity in talent on the feet greatly favors Luque in this matchup. But, I find myself trying to trust Muhammad’s intelligence to find an alternate path to victory if need be. Although I find myself trying to trust Muhammad, I cannot overlook the elite talent of Luque, particularly with knowing his fight-ending submission game coupled with him having the skills to get off the mat from a defensive position if needed. So, although I love the cardio and intelligence Muhammad weaponizes in the octagon, I anticipate Luque combating the main grappling attack and keeping the fight standing, and if done, Luque will have tremendous success.

Bet: Luque

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Stephen Thompson vs. Belal Muhammad prediction, betting odds https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/stephen-thompson-vs-belal-muhammad-staff-predictions-picks-betting-odds/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/stephen-thompson-vs-belal-muhammad-staff-predictions-picks-betting-odds/#respond Wed, 15 Dec 2021 13:40:20 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=35467 Saturday’s main card at UFC Fight Night 199 will include a match-up between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, recently on the cusp of a title shot, and...

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Saturday’s main card at UFC Fight Night 199 will include a match-up between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, recently on the cusp of a title shot, and Belal Muhammad one of the most promising potential contenders on the welterweight rise right now.

Thompson, after winning back-to-back fights in 2019 and 2020 against contender Vincente Luque and top 15 powerhouse Geoff Neal, was putting himself in very good standing to win one or two more before securing a title shot. His following fight in July earlier this year was an unofficial number one contender bid against Gilbert Burns who ended up beating out Thompson just as he was about to jump at another championship aspiration. However, he will return looking to bounce back from this loss and put himself back on track this Saturday.

Belal Muhammed, the currently ranked #10 welterweight fighter in the world, got an unlikely opportunity to challenge himself far up the latter earlier this year when he accepted short notice fight against contender Leon Edwards, however, the rare opportunity would be taken away in the process when an unintentional eye poke lead to a no-contest result and no change in ranking for “Remember the Name” Muhammad. However, after a convincing win against Demian Maia afterward, defeating Wonderboy is the big test that could catapult Muhammad’s career.

Thompson vs. Muhammad Betting Odds

Thompson will come into the fight as a -225 favorite, no surprise due to the experience of competition among the best in the world. However, Muhammad will look to use this as motivation and materialize the underdog story.

  • Thompson: -225
  • Muhammad: +180

Thompson vs. Muhammad Breakdown

While Thompson presents one of the most difficult-to-solve puzzles in the UFC, at this point the elements of his game that have to be figured out are evident. Most prominently, the distance and range control presented by the Karate expert is usually the defining aspect of the fight and whether we get a classic Wonderboy clinic or a shutout.

Wonderboy utilizes a sideways stance with emphasis on front leg techniques and straight punches. His bouncing footwork keeps him constantly moving and hides the exact moments at which he is going to cut angles as he never stands up for any sort of movement. By doing so, not only is his actual speed enhanced but it also slows down his opponent’s work due to hesitancy. He will prod with the lead leg when his opponents try to bridge the space gap to knock them off balance, usually with the lead leg side, but he will also come over the top with a tricky roundhouse. As he skirts the cage, he will cut angles before building a straight flurry of punches, but what he does so well is making sure he cuts on the opponent’s blindside before doing so to mitigate the possibility he runs into anything.

Belal Muhammad is a bit more on the square stance spectrum, which means getting that blindside angle will be more difficult for Thompson but the straight shots up the middle especially the kicks o the body will be more open.

In terms of grappling, Wonderboy’s primary focus is within the realm of takedown defense. He has a very high success rate in this, however a lot of that can be attributed to his range control, but maintaining his preferred kicking distance, his opponents have to shoot from far out for the most part, apart from the highest level grapplers ie) Gilbert Burns who managed to force such a high degree of fence control. Furthermore, while the sideways stance presents the opening for the single leg, it nullifies any chance his opponent can look for a double leg unless it’s during a Thompson Blitz, and because Thompson has such great balance the single-leg attempts more often lead to Wonderboy hopping back and using the cage or able to kick his way out of the grip. Ultimately I believe its imperative that Muhammad gets Thompson to the fence if he wants to chase a wrestling-heavy approach.

Belal Muhammad is a very sound fighter everywhere. He has good wrestling, jiu-jitsu and striking and is largely in part the more well-rounded of the two fighters, but less the specialist. However., while Thompson works his offense off of his elusiveness, he defends first and counters inside that safety, Muhammad takes risks of getting hit much more readily to put on some pressure. He uses a lot of movement, and because he gets better as the fight goes on, he knows that he has to get into exchanges early if he wants his opponents to wilt later on. In this sense, Muhammad may have the tenacity to try bullying Wonderboy to the cage but he will also have to probably take shots to get there.

Muhammad has both chosen to work the outside of the octagon and lead the dance, the latter more often and more effectively. He is very good at cutting off the cage with lateral shots, especially very good hooks, and wide straights, By doing so he puts his opponents in a figurative corner, which they have to use more dramatic movement to escape and Muhammad calmy walks them down and restarts the gameplan. What this does is force his opponents to use higher energy movement than his, which is more efficient. However this I think would make more of a difference in a five-round fight because Thompson’s ability to slow the pace and comfortability using his karate movement makes it hard to see Muhammad sap Thompson’s cardio this way in just 15 minutes.

Thompson vs. Muhammad Prediction

While Belal Muhammad has a lot of interesting tools in this match-up, they hinge largely on being able to dictate the pace and cut-off movement, which on the other side are some of Thompson’s best attributes. Wonderboy has proven these abilities effective against higher-level opponents.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson to win via decision.

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UFC Fight Night 143 Predictions: Belal Muhammad vs. Geoff Neal https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-fight-night-143-predictions-belal-muhammad-geoff-neal/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/ufc-fight-night-143-predictions-belal-muhammad-geoff-neal/#comments Mon, 31 Dec 2018 00:00:56 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=9098 Welterweight got a new top prospect at UFC 228 when Geoff Neal surgically took apart Frank Camacho. The performance was as close to flawless as...

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Welterweight got a new top prospect at UFC 228 when Geoff Neal surgically took apart Frank Camacho. The performance was as close to flawless as can be expected in MMA, and the Texan has a good chance to move into the rankings with a similarly decisive win over one of the division’s unranked staples in Belal Muhammad. On a four-fight win streak dating back to UFC 208 in early 2017, Muhammad has real (if understated) momentum; a win over a well-respected prospect in Neal could be the push to get him a ranked opponent in a very deep 170-pound division.

Geoff Neal showed striking against Frank Camacho that wasn’t particularly broad, but looked fairly deep to outclass a man that doesn’t generally get put away easily. In just under six-and-a-half minutes, Neal marked up Camacho at range and in the pocket with only a few weapons but a lot of nuance to them. Chief among these was the straight left hand; Neal often led with the rear hand and got away with it because the cross came blindingly fast. Neal feinted the straight, he doubled up, he fired it on an irregular rhythm; basically anything that could be done with a jab, Neal did with the rear straight, and was able to deal damage and use it (and sometimes a frame with the lead hand) to keep the brawler away and circle off.

Neal also looked offensively very potent while swarming; he was able to generate a lot of power in a short left hand to drop Camacho at the end of the first round (and that power was evident in his much more limited previous UFC showing against Brian Camozzi), and he put the heat on Camacho at the beginning of round two with a barrage of accurate and powerful blows from the edge of the pocket. The straight left set up the head kick; Camacho looked to slip the straights that came, but the straight came so fast that Camacho had to start a defensive motion before he could actually ascertain what the attack was, so Camacho leaned into a thunderous head kick that knocked him completely out. A long-time follower of MMA may recognize this as the favored striking framework of the legendary Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.

One (and probably the best) option to beat this tactic is pressure; crowd the kicks and push into the pocket to make the straight less viable, and it levels the playing field considerably. Belal Muhammad, however, isn’t much of a pressurer; while he largely controlled the center against Chance Rencountre in his last fight, Muhammad isn’t strong enough in the pocket to play a dedicated pressure game, especially when Neal is so dangerous in the pocket and so laterally active.

Muhammad has always played a bit of an all-rounder, with the ability to strike and wrestle to a B+ caliber without anything particularly distinguishing about his game, and while that could get him into big trouble on the feet (as it did against another offensive buzzsaw in Vicente Luque), it could also enable him to take advantage of any glaring hole in Neal’s overall game.

There isn’t enough reason to think that Neal is an inept-enough grappler or wrestler to favor Muhammad, so the favorite is Neal on the massive striking disparity, but it might not be a horribly wide fight in totality. It just probably looks that way.

Prediction: Neal via first-round knockout. This writer caps Neal at -200.


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