With Yadong’s striking prowess and Simon’s relentless wrestling, it’s an MMA chess match that’s got the odds-makers working overtime. Read on as we dissect this electrifying matchup, offering you the best betting tips and odds before the UFC Fight Night 223 main event.

Betting Odds

Ricky Simon’s the betting favorite at odds of -136. Song’s a slight underdog and can be found at + odds at some sites, including BetUS.

• Simon: -136 (BetUS)
• Song: +107 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Analysis

Song Yadong, an 11-fight UFC veteran, is still just 25 years old. The culmination of vast UFC experience with that of still being outside of the age range widely considered to be MMA prime is very unique. Beyond this uniqueness, it is quite scary to think that Yadong has still yet to hit his prime, as he is one of the most electrifying fighters in the bantamweight division with dwindling flaws in his fight game.

From a fight-strength perspective, Song Yadong has an elite striking arsenal built on the ability to blend lightning-quick punches with snapping power. Whether it is landing underrated calf kicks from the outside or using impressive footwork to get in range, land a lighting-fast boxing combination, and exit range before getting countered, Yadong can strike with the best of them.

While his offensive striking is sound, Yadong can get into trouble with falling in love with getting into a striking war, as he is more than willing to wear one to give one. Moreover, being a sound offensive striker, he has faced trouble in the past with getting grappled. This defensive grappling issue was far more prevalent in years past than in recent note, as he has fought far more pragmatically, and when in balance, he has more than sound wrestling to stuff takedowns. That newfound ability to confidently stuff takedowns, and in fact, successfully offensive wrestle talented grapplers will be at an all-time test for him in this fight, and if he can pass it, then his hands give him more than a chance to win.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

As referenced above, Ricky Simon is an incredible wrestler. Somewhat similarly to Merab Dvalishvili, Simon puts on a constant, in-your-face pressure that is relentless and cardio-depleting for his opponents to deal with. Moreover, Simon, just like Merab, will pursue the takedown over and over, thus making him a very consistent fighter in the octagon with a sustained path to victory.

The scary aspect of Simon’s fight game, beyond having unrelenting and talented wrestling, is the fact that he has serious power on the feet, and, understands how to leverage this power to exacerbate his wrestling success. Often, when a fighter uses overhand punches to get in close and wrestle, I coin them “wrestle boxers”, and Simon is not only befitting of this tag but perhaps, at the top of the wrestle-boxer mountain for all UFC fighters.

As one can presume when watching predominate wrestlers in the UFC, the flaw in Simon’s fight game is when his wrestling is not as effective as he would like. If the takedown is continually stalled, Simon lacks fluid, technical striking on the feet to defend against talented striking technicians. While the case, this simply does not come to fruition all that often, as he has implemented his will on his opponents, who, many, are very talented UFC fighters with sound grappling acumen; but for Simon, the technical wrestling coupled with unrelenting pressure and natural strength, he has been able to get fighters to the mat, and once there, he is very heavy and has good submissions as well as ground and pound.

Betting Tips

The best thing Song Yadong has going for him is training in Team Alpha Male. This gym is littered with impressive wrestlers, many of whom fight at his weight. Couple this with the fact he is already a good wrestler with talented striking, and he can certainly win this fight.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

While this is the case, I cannot go against the freight train that is Ricky Simon. Simon displayed an ability to implement his will in his last fight against the talented Jack Shore, as he completely dominated from start to finish. I expect him to do the same, but the degree of domination will likely be less given the talent of Yadong.

Ultimately, I anticipate this fight looking quite similar to Merab vs Petr Yan, whereby Merab used unrelenting cardio to disallow the uber-talented Yan to get anything going in that fight. Because of this, I am taking Simon, and because the price is more than bettable, I am taking him straight here.

Pick: Ricky Simon to win (-136 at BetUS)

Read more: Braeden Arbour’s Ricky Simon vs. Song Yadong prediction

The post Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon betting odds, tips appeared first on The Body Lock.

Song who currently holds wins over Marlon Vera, Casey Kenny, and Marlon Moraes made a big step up when he faced top contender Cory Sandhagen last September. The fight pulled away from him after suffering a nasty cut in the second round, but even in defeat Song proved to many fans he could be a future title challenger. To live up to that hype he will need to get past Simon, who sits two ranks below him, and prove again that he deserves a fight closer to the top 5.

Betting Odds

Ricky Simon will come into the fight as the favorite to win. Oddsmakers looking to play the underdog could win $107 on every $100 placed on Song.

• Simon: -136 (BetUS)
• Song: +107 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

Ricky Simon’s base style comes from his high-level wrestling as a teenager. He utilized these skills as his roots when he early on transitioned to MMA, but his wrestling ability is still his most dominant skill. On the feet, he keeps a high guard, and a low stance, contrasting the more upright approach of Song. This allows him to stay cocked and ready for a level change at any moment, however, his quickness is potentially a shade behind Song. The diversity in his striking game is also a bit less pronounced, he sticks to his basic boxing combinations and very effective low kicks, but to keep up with Song’s striking he will need to mix the threat of the takedown into his feints consistently.

Song Yadong is supremely quick and explosive, both in his ability to slip punches and counter, but also in his sprawls. That being said, because he is so quick to react, he can react very big, and by getting him to drop dramatically under threat of a takedown, Simon will better open Song up to his big overhand rights and hooks.

Song Yadong is constantly evolving between fights, and that’s one of the variables always present, what new developments and changes will we see in his style every time he fights? As he progresses towards bigger stages, and likely more five-round contests as with his last, we have seen him shorten his stance, elect to plod forward instead of bounce and leap, and pick his moments to explode more efficiently.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

So expect him to mostly be the one pushing forward, although he still needs to make sure he is chasing, rather than cutting off the cage to avoid running to a level change. Song has shown excellent head movement as of late and a superior ability to strike off of angles to Simon, in particular, Song used a very crafty, slip off the right hand and angle back with a counter left hook in his last outing. He also likes to lead with the right cross or right body kick then follow up with a whipping left hook.

Simon has a very high-level chain wrestling game and a variety of ways he likes to shoot. One of which involves slipping punches directly onto the hips and running the pipe into the fence. Where he has a lot of ways he enters range, a lot of the time it involves getting to double underhooks, and once there a significant amount of attempts ends up in the clinch against the cage. One of the holes we have seen from Simon is from the clinch, where he will win wrestling exchanges, he will often take the brunt of strikes if that clinch is broken. Song has a unique ability to explode off the cage with big hooks when given space so watch for big shots in this scenario.

Song is almost impossible to get to the ground but if he is, he almost always scrambles back to his feet. Simon does a great job of immediately ‘figure four’ing the legs and getting to a body lock, but if he does not get passed the knees look for Song to use butterfly hooks to create a scramble. On top Simon is constant in his ability to re-address his hold on the body, pull arms back that are being used to post, and suck the hips back away from the fence. However because all of these tactics revolve around the upper body, he does tend to land very little ground and pound while he wrestles. While grappling he is a big control time fighter, and on the feet is where his power and damage really shine.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Despite being the underdog, Song’s skills match up very well with Simon’s. His takedown defense is among his best tools and his ability to scramble out of bad positions especially early will come into play. Coming down from a main event camp in his last fight should help Song’s confidence going another five rounds, with it being Simon’s first.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

For Simon, it’s about consistently putting Song’s back on the canvas and landing power shots as Song advances on the feet, which is also very doable with his skill set. However, I see Song’s ability to strike in transitions between the grappling and striking and his ability to defend those takedowns edging him out and making him the better bet as the underdog.

Pick: Song to win (+107)

Read more: Joe Pounders’ Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon betting tips

The post Ricky Simon vs. Song Yadong prediction | UFC Fight Night 222 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Durden, who is building an impressive resume and has already competed against Muhammad Mokaev, went to a draw with Chris Gutierrez and defeated Aori Qileng within his 3-2-1 UFC record.

His opponent, Charles “InnerG” Johnson shares a mutual opponent in Mokaev who defeated Johnson in his UFC debut. However, since then, Johnson has brought himself much more success going 2-1 against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and Jimmy Flick, and then losing to Ode Osbourne last February.

Betting Odds

Oddsmakers deem Durden the underdog, meaning that each $100 spent on him is set to return a profit of $111 in victory.

• Charles Johnson: -140 (BetUS)
• Cody Durden: +110 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

Cody Durden strikes in a specific rhyme that is difficult to predict and read. He has very good timing, especially on his basic jab and cross, and often times them as a jump-forward entry into his takedowns. Whatever he decides to throw, it is often loaded with a big burst forward with his weight behind it, which is why Durden has such a high finish rate in the first round when the two men are fresh and his opponent is least likely to have any reads on Durden. He also mixes in his low kicks nicely.

Typically Durden will either throw himself fully into a body lock or double leg and sort of tackle his opponent full thrust. The drawback to this is with better grapplers, his use of sheer force has thrown his way off balance when his opponent is able to defend, this approach is a double-edged sword that either has powerful success or terrible failure. On the other hand, Durden will feint with the hands and drop to a single leg before driving to the fence, which although has a less dramatic impact allows him to slowly build his control. On top Durden buries his head into the chin of his opponent, going chest to chest and offering no space, he will work much more patiently here as well as on the back.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Charles Johnson is an anomaly and kind of a wildman. He has been introduced as a ninjutsu-style fighter, and his haircut speaks for itself, however, the same unusualness and creativity can be seen in his fighting style. He has good footwork and very good head movement, his reactions, and timing to slip and weave through shots are high-level. This also causes him to lean heavily on each leg as he moves though, meaning he has been more one to taking body shots in the past. He typically sticks and moves with his boxing and front kick knowing that he would rather play the long game. As a former Steeple chase champion, few in the division may have the cardio confidence of Johnson, and we often see this in motion when knowing they near the bell he pours on immense pressure.

Johnson has a very good guillotine threat if he is taken down as well as good sweeps but it will be very difficult to take him there because on the fence his takedown defense is quite solid.

Prediction and Betting Guide

On the feet, I think that Charles Johnson is uniquely qualified to dampen the first-round storm of Durden. I think his ability to keep a high work rate without fear of gassing will allow him to start strong, and his awkward style will also cause some hesitancy in Durden. It would be rare for Johnson to stand in front of Durden still enough for many blast double attempts so it’s more likely we see wall wrestling between the two, where Durden still has the advantage but not so much that outweighs the difference in skill at range. I think by the third round, Johnson is still the fresher fighter and should be able to bag at least two of the three rounds.

Best Bet: Charles Johnson to win (-142)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

The post Cody Durden vs. Charles Johnson prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Meanwhile, Jake “The Prototype” Collier, 34, has been in the UFC, across several weight classes, since 2014. His UFC record is 5-7; and, in the heavyweight division, he’s 2-4.

Buday and Collier will clash at this weekend’s UFC Fight Night 223 event in Las Vegas.

Betting Odds

Buday and Collier are at pick’em odds, suggesting it’s anyone’s fight.

• Buday: -110 (BetUS)
• Collier: -110 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

Buday entered the UFC primarily as a range striker who regularly used an active jab and cage-cutting footwork to trap opponents so he could land bigger punches against a stationary opponent.

He looked very much like ex-UFC fighter Ben Rothwell with this approach. Rothwell has a much more proven and advanced game; but, the basic jab pawing, plodding but strategic footwork, and heavy right hand were similar. Interestingly, or possibly concerningly as he continues to fight better competition, Buday followed the jab and cage-cut game plan; but, once he trapped an opponent, instead of looking for the knockout shot, he clinched.

To his credit, Buday showed a solid clinch game with surprisingly athletic knees. However, he didn’t deal any real fight-ending damage and didn’t seem interested, or capable, in advancing the fight to the ground. Instead, he looked to press against the cage and avoid a striking battle at range, even with his decided reach advantage.

The change in fight style suggests that Buday is concerned with the strikes coming back his way more in the UFC than outside of it. This makes sense given the increase in talent and power in the UFC and Buday’s lack of speed makes him an easier target to hit cleanly. His audible, changing to more of a clinch fighter, might be an intelligent move or indicate an inability to hang at the UFC level.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Collier fights frantically, like a child’s windup toy that has been overwound. I suspect the goal of his style is to attempt to use movement and chaotic striking to get into range so his hand speed and volume can become assets. Collier’s issue, though, is his frame.

Previously a middleweight, Collier has the frame of a much smaller fighter, with shorter arms and legs. This results in him getting hit often well before his frantic style can close the distance. Collier has found more success with this “crash and overwhelm” approach when he starts with leg kicks and an intelligent jab. While Collier lacks the natural size of a heavyweight, he does often have the advantage in technique when he chooses to use it. In his two heavyweight wins, Collier showcased an ability to strike from range early, create an opening to crash distance, and hurt his opponent once in tight.

However, those wins came against two of the lowest-level UFC heavyweights, one of which is no longer on the roster. Against a slightly higher level of competition, Collier struggled with that timing and couldn’t regularly get into range. When he did, he still landed volume and showed nice boxing combinations, often working both the body and head. However, his opponents often landed the more damaging shots and were able to muscle their way out of the pocket and force Collier to reset.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Bottomline, neither of these fighters will ever fight for the belt and neither is likely to hold a ranking. Given that it is a low-level heavyweight fight with 4oz gloves, staying away is probably a smart strategy.

However, the pick’em odds offer a unique opportunity to risk less and still win a typical amount. I like Buday in this one.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Collier’s struggles at heavyweight have typically come against true heavyweights with true heavyweight size and reach. Collier’s only two wins have come against a fighter who moved up from 205 and a fighter who regularly weighs in the 245 range. Meanwhile, Buday is 6’3 and every bit of 260, plus his game plan is designed to keep him all the way out where his range is an advantage or all the way in where his size is an advantage.

Collier will likely struggle to keep this fight in the middle, boxing range, against someone of Buday’s size. Lastly, Collier has a shaky chin; and, although Buday hasn’t shown it yet, he does have some power.

Best Bets: Buday to win (-105) and Buday by knockout (+285)

The post Martin Buday vs. Jake Collier prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Borralho, who has won all three of his fights since joining the UFC, is looking to solidify his position in the competitive middleweight division. Oleksiejczuk, on the other hand, is coming off two impressive knockout victories against tough opponents.

With both fighters riding win streaks, their upcoming bout is expected to be a closely contested matchup that could have significant implications for the middleweight rankings.

Betting Odds

After his dominant performances since coming into the UFC, Caio Borralho enters this bout as a sizable favorite.

• Caio Borralho: -345 (BetUS)
• Michal Oleksiejczuk: +245 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

The main appeal to this fight is just how well-rounded and dangerous both fighters are. Both are fairly technical on their feet and extremely proficient on the ground, which has helped both of them garner a number of solid performances. Borralho is a full-fledged product of the Brazilian chute boxe style, using his confidence off of his back to put in dangerous work on the feet. This has dissuaded many of his opponents from shooting in on traditional takedowns, which has led to them getting pieced up by his striking.

Borralho also has a fairly underrated arsenal of attacks from the feet. Along with his proficiency as a boxer, he has a wildly powerful body kick that has changed the course of his fights since his wins in the contender series. He seldom uses leg kicks, but when he does they have an equal amount of power as he usually puts most of his weight into them. He leaves his guard low when he does this, however, so a solid counter from Oleksiejczuk could deter him from throwing more kicks or outright end the fight.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Oleksiejczuk is a more traditional fighter, using his combinations to set up his takedowns or clinch exchanges against the fence. He has a powerful left hand that he often uses to break the guard of his opponents to start putting together combinations. He’s not as strong off of his back as Borralho but has shown himself to scramble out of precarious positions when push comes to shove. Against strong grapplers, however, he’s been shut down entirely, often losing decisions or getting submitted due to his inability to recover from long grappling exchanges.

Oleksiejczuk’s main deficit is his lack of defense. He swings pretty wildly which has often led to him getting countered and seriously hurt, which has altered the course of many of his fights. He takes a decent amount of time to recover as well, which has put him on the back foot in many of his bouts. Borralho isn’t sharp from a technical standpoint, but he could surely capitalize on this if Oleksiejczuk doesn’t give him a diverse arsenal of reads in his combinations.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I’m going with Borralho on this one. He’s got a lot of momentum as a recent signing and has shown himself to be more than worthy of the hype he’s garnering. I don’t really see a way for Oleksiejczuk to win this outside of a decision or if he lands flush on Borralho in the early rounds. His defense is far too underdeveloped both on the ground and on the feet, and a dangerous young fighter like Borralho seems to be a poor matchup for him in every department.

The real question is how does Borralho get it done? Oleksiejczuk is yet to get knocked out in his career so, even as powerful of a striker as Borralho is, I don’t really see him putting him away with a knockout outside of a ground-and-pound TKO.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Borralho is due for his first submission in the UFC though, and Oleksiejczuk has shown himself to be vulnerable to submissions against weaker opponents so Borralho via submission at +165 seems to be a promising betting line.

If you want to play it safe though, Borralho via decision has even higher odds at +250 and is a solid pick as well.

Bet: Borralho by Submission (+175) or Borralho by decision (+250)

The post Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both Brundage and Vieira have had up and down moments throughout their UFC tenure thus far, but the lone consistency in each of their fight game is the willingness to look for the finish, even if the consequence is getting finished themselves.

Because of this, this fight is likely a FOTN contender and certainly should not reach the judges’ scorecards.

Betting Odds

Rodolfo Vieira is a -230 favorite, with Brundage returning as a +180 underdog.

• Rodolfo Vieira: -230 (BetUS)
• Cody Brundage: +180 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

Cody Brundage is an accomplished high school wrestler with a 128-22 record and a two-time NCAA DII qualifier. On paper, the success collegiate wrestlers have had in the UFC would warrant the belief that Brundage, being young and athletic, would weaponize wrestling and win with a consistent method of attack. While fair, the reality is that consistency in performance, both with outcome and method of attack, is far from attributable to Brundage, and is why he is 2-2 in the UFC thus far.

The negative to Brudnage’s game is inconsistency in performance, but the positive is him showing building blocks of future success, meaning, he has shown effective wrestling from the outside, and if he can learn to keep heavy top pressure and/or learn to land damage once hits the mat, then wins can begin to compile for him. But, the issue, beyond inconsistency, is a culmination of poor striking development with poor in-fight decisions.

The former of bad striking is not too surprising given his youth and background as a grappler, but the latter issue of in-fight decision-making is the root cause of inconsistency. Specifically, Brundage has forgone effective fight methods early in a fight to unnecessarily change tactics, and the consequence has been defeat. If he can clean up in-fight decision-making and/or develop defensively-sound striking, then Brundage can formulate a method of success and secure a win here.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fighting with consistency has plagued Rodolfo Vieira as well but in entirely different ways. Whereas Brundage has not accepted the rinse-repeat method of success needed to be implemented for compiling sustained success in the octagon, Vieira has no qualms whatsoever with fighting each fight on the mat and finding his way to victory through submissions. This affinity for finishing fights with submissions comes as no surprise given he is a world-renowned BJJ practitioner who is a four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion, seven-time Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion, two-time Pan American Champion, and an ADCC Submission World Champion.

Given the danger Vieira presents on the mat, his opponents often do anything and everything to keep the fight standing. For those who have sound takedown defense, they have had success with stuffing the early threat of Vieira with him having power-driven takedowns, and once done, they have success with piecing Vieira up on the feet. For those who have sub-par defense, Vieria has had the ability to use his natural strength to get it to the mat.

I want to emphasize that the technical ability Vieira has on the mat is leaps and bounds ahead of his technical ability to secure takedowns, and this lack of technical ability plagued him in the Anthony Hernandez fight, as Vieira gassed himself out and was actually finished by submission. This issue with consistently finding takedowns is the Achilles’ heel for him as he could win a significant number of fights if he had elite wrestling.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

What will be quite interesting for Vieira moving forward is if prioritizes fine-tuning his offensive wrestling to where he can then fight on the mat or if he will continue to develop his striking with the hopes of using the Oliveira method of success. This method at the most elementary level is throwing strikes with ill intentions knowing full well if a strike lands, the opponent will be in trouble, and if the strike doesn’t, then being off balance on a strike temps the opponent to land an easy takedown where they then can work for submission off their back. If Vieira chooses this way of fight development, the benefit is that he does have impressive power, but the pitfall is this style allows for a technician on the feet to piece him up and/or a powerful opponent to land a clean strike to win by KO. In this fight, Vieira does not have to worry about facing a technician on the feet nor elite power, so I expect him to throw haymaking blows in the attempt to find a finish and/or invite being taken to the mat.

Prediction and Betting Guide

On paper, in a fight where both men have inconsistencies in their game and each is developing their non-specific grappling skills, I would favor the fighter with better wrestling and likely better cardio, in this case, both Brundage. While that is the case, the stylistic fight for Vieira is simply tailor-made for his style, whereby he can confidently throw haymaking punches and can out-grapple – early – if need be.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Because of this, I expect Vieira to find a finish in some capacity, and because I do not trust his cardio coupled with Brundage not having seen a second round in three fights, I am taking Vieira in round 1.

Pick: Rodolfo Vieira RD1 Finish (+135)

The post Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Rogerio de Lima, 37, has won three of his last five fights, the most recent of which was a submission win over UFC veteran Andrei Arlovski. Cortes-Acosta, 31, left the MLB minor league system and transitioned to mixed martial arts in 2015. He earned a UFC contract with a 1st round knockout on the 2022 season of Contender Series and followed it up with back-to-back decision wins.

Betting Odds

Rogerio de Lima is fluctuating around -165 while Cortes-Acosta is at +135. This means a $165 bet on Rogerio de Lima would net $100 while a $100 bet on Cortes-Acosta would net $135.

• Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -175 (BetUS)
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +145 (BetUS)

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Fight Breakdown

Rogerio de Lima tends to fight one way in round 1 and a different way in rounds 2 or 3 but both strategies are rooted in one thing: size. While Rogerio de Lima is only listed at 6-foot-1 and 260 pounds, in the cage, he looks much larger.

In round 1, Rogerio de Lima will use his size, and subsequent power, to blitz forward and look to entice a brawl where he happily goes blow for blow with a willing opponent. “Pezao” has sledgehammers in his gloves and a remarkably stout chin considering his lack of consistent defense. He typically looks to unload most of his volume and energy in round 1 while hunting the knockout.

If an opponent survives round 1, Rogerio de Lima completely shifts his style from a heavy-handed brawler to a wrestler. Just like his striking, Rogerio de Lima’s wrestling is not technical but because of his size and threat of power, it is effective. He tends to land around half of his takedown attempts and controls the fight on the mat for several minutes once down.

His grappling game on the mat is centered around heavy top pressure and patience. Because he uses so much energy in round 1, Rogerio de Lima seems content to lay on his opponent for rounds 2 and 3, doing just enough work to win minutes and rounds. Evidence of this style is that all but 1 of Rogerio de Lima’s 20 professional wins have come by round 1 finish or decision.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

Cortes-Acosta is an interesting young fighter in the heavyweight division. His style is that of a boxer who accumulates damage through volume, then, once an opponent is hurt, looks to land heavier combinations for a finish.

Concerningly, though, Cortes-Acosta has yet to be able to implement that game plan successfully. He has nice boxing with a decent jab and snappy cross but his hand speed and technique aren’t where a high-level boxers need to be. Cortes-Acosta tends to paw his jab forward and follow it with a right hand that is between a cross and an overhand, almost in a slapping motion. Then, he’ll back straight up on the center line rather than cutting an angle which results in him getting countered cleanly.

On DWCS Cortes-Acosta landed heavy right hands and had an opponent hurt after an impressive amount of volume in the first minute; but, right at the moment he should have unloaded knockout blows, he clinched. That indicates he either didn’t have the cardio to implement his game plan or the fight IQ to recognize the opening.

Beyond not yet putting together his style, Cortes-Acosta is also physically small for heavyweight. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds but does not have the girth many other heavyweights do. This, coupled with inexperience, makes defending takedowns even more challenging for “Salsa Boy.” Cortes-Acosta’s game isn’t all negative, he is naturally athletic, moves fluidly when offensive, and can rack up volume impressively throughout a fight.

His issue, like other fighters we’ve seen recently, is in a division with extreme power, without Cortes-Acosta proving he can end a fight at the UFC level, his opponent will always be 1 knockout blow away from winning a fight, even if Cortes-Acosta was up in the round.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I think the biggest issue Cortes-Acosta faces is he doesn’t have a natural division. He’s too slow for 205 but is undersized at heavyweight, meaning he’s stuck between weight classes. His first two wins came against a large but slow heavyweight and then a tall but thinner fighter. Cortes-Acosta has yet to face a true heavyweight with true heavyweight power and the athleticism to move 260 pounds around the cage effectively. That is, until now.

Rogerio de Lima, even though he’s 37, is massive, powerful, and moves well for his size. This is a true test for the undersized Cortes-Acosta and one I don’t anticipate him passing. Rogerio de Lima will have the key edges in size, power, experience, and raw aggression. Cortes-Acosta tends to try and box with clean combinations that score points; but, in what will likely look more like a fistfight, that style will likely struggle.

Special Offer: Sign up to BetUS today and get a sign-up bonus up to $2,500

I expect Rogerio de Lima to pressure early and go all out for the finish while Cortes-Acosta is still developing his momentum. Then, if Cortes-Acosta survives, I forsee Rogerio de Lima wrestling later and using his size to grind out valuable minutes.

Best Bets: Rogerio de Lima to win (-175) and a sprinkle on round 1 knockout

The post Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction | UFC Fight Night 223 appeared first on The Body Lock.