Going into his fight this weekend at UFC Fight Night 229, Alexander Hernandez is a much more seasoned and experienced fighter, having competed 11 times in the UFC octagon and most recently beaten UFC legend Jim Miller.

His next opponent, the also experienced Bill Algeo is coming off of a submission victory over T.J. Brown in April. Algeo has fought some major names in the featherweight division, including former title challenger and longtime contender Ricardo Lamas and Andre Fili. He has constantly improved between fights and looks to bring the best version of himself against Hernandez.

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Betting Odds

Bill Algeo will come into the bout as the slight favorite, directly off of his April victory.

• Alexander Hernandez: +100 (BetUS)
• Bill Algeo: -130 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Bill Algeo’s original combat sport base is in wrestling. He carries this into all of his fights with his excellent takedowns off of the cage as well as top control however most recently he has become more known for his unique striking ability. Algeo favors a sideways, bouncy karate-esk stance with a snappy lead leg side kick, front kick and blitzing punches. However, as he developed his karate stylings on top of an already versed MMA game, he does not maintain the illusiveness of others who use it. It is not uncommon to see Algeo dip and weave in the pocket and counter with nice hooks, as well as throw a solid switch kick from the outside.

His use of a low guard does mean when he is hit he can be caught cleanly with his head in the air but also tends to roll well with punches. That being said, it is difficult to find one’s way in on Algeo as a stabbing front kick down the centre and lead side kick help him maintain range so that he can enter boxing range on his own terms. He typically throws strikes freely knowing he has an extensive wrestling game, and black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. This is also why he is confident stack passing from top position if he does elect to grapple, leaning on his good submission defence to maintain position and ground and pound from a high postured position.

Alexander Hernandez utilizes a much more crouched and tight stance. He likewise maintains a wide stance, but is more reminiscent of a sprinter, with his knee pointed out forward allowing him to lunge in with his 1-2 and rear leg knees or kicks. He also keeps a much tighter guard. It will be difficult for Hernandez to get inside Algeo’s range, as the shorter fighter, but he needs to do what he does best. Hernandez is one of the best at using his kicks to set up his hands, rather than the usual vice versa. Hernandez will establish his counter step in knee when his opponents moves forward and just as easily use his step in knee on the lead to switch stance and bridge the range to attack from southpaw.

Hernandez usually begins his fights with a relatively basic approach, his jab, cross and kicks making up most of his strike variety. As he finds success he starts to open up with a wider range of tools, making him more effective the longer the fight goes. He needs to establish his low kicks early to attack the bladed stance of Alego and get him biting whenever Hernandez looks to kick, which will open up the stance switch entries into the pocket. From there he has better chance of negating the range and karate style of Alego. Inside Hernandez has the more effective Muay Thai, and although Algeo may on paper be the better grappler, Hernandez is as good a scrambler as any. He will be difficult to hold down unless he is already hurt, however, chasing a grappling match is not in his best interest unless he finds a way to hold position with the cage and land effective ground and pound outside of straight jiu jitsu exchanges.

Prediction

Bill Algeo is definitely dangerous everywhere. If he can keep the fight at range and stick Hernandez with his kicks while constantly avoiding the pocket he could easily out work him. However, I do think that Hernandez has the ability to set up Algeo by going to the lead leg and using his switch hit tactics to get on the inside. Although Algeo has tremendous submission and wrestling ability I do think that the explosiveness and physicality of Hernandez will weight heavy in clinch positions along the cage as well as in his ability to explode back up if he is taken down. If Hernandez is careless in his own control positions and provides opportunities for Alegeo, this could spell trouble, but by sticking to a game plan and not taking unnecessary risks on the ground I do think Hernandez has the edge.

Pick: Alexander Hernandez to win (+100)

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The post Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction | UFC Fight Night 229 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Betting Odds

Bill Algeo is a -185 favorite over TJ Brown.

• Bill Algeo: -185
• TJ Brown: +160

Fight Breakdown

Candidly, Bill Algeo is one of my favorite fighters on the roster. The reasoning for this is not due to belief in him being a future champion nor having the violent fight-ending ability, instead, the consistency that he displays in the octagon makes him someone I trust from a handicapping standpoint as well as a fighter I trust to deliver entertaining performances each time the octagon door closes.

Algeo’s consistency fight-over-fight is done by parlaying well-rounded ability with a pace and pressure that weaponizes cardio. Because of his cardio and output, Algeo puts himself in a position to win contrary to relying on fight-ending ability, i.e. Marlon Vera’s gameplan. While putting himself in a position, he has lost decisions and this is ultimately rooted in developing grappling, meaning, he has given up takedowns and has had to defend legitimate submission attempts once on the mat causing him to lose close fights. This issue is a particular concern when fighting someone as dangerous as TJ Brown is on the mat, however, Algeo has improved his takedown defense fight over the fight, and while he is certainly far from an elite wrestler, he is someone who can stuff takedowns and get up off the mat if indeed taken there. If kept off the mat, Algeo’s ability to land at a constant and frequent rate gives him a viable chance to not only win here in this spot but begin a climb to fighting for ranked contention.

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As stated, TJ Brown is a very dangerous opponent to contend with on the mat. Having earned 10 of his 17 professional wins by submission, Brown is more than comfortable on the mat, and most importantly, equally comfortable being in top or bottom position. This interest is important given Brown’s offensive wrestling is good but not elite of the elite — 56% success rate.

Knowing his danger on the mat, the question arises why many opponents have taken him there, and the answer to that is due to the style of fighting Brown uses on the feet. Meaning, Brown, who has impressive size and athletism, throws strikes with ill intentions and is more than willing to overextend on a right hand or throw a flying knee that leaves him off balance because he is more than willing to get taken to the mat from a defensive perspective, where he then can work his way to a submission finish. This freedom to throw every shot with max damage intention makes Brown extremely dangerous. While this is the case, if his opponent has comfort with evading threatening shots and remains standing, then a more technical opponent can land strikes cleanly against the less-than-superb defensive striker in Brown, and Algeo is just that type of opponent, thus making him equally as threatening opponent for Brown as Brown is for him.

Prediction

Both Brown and Algeo deserve a ton of respect and admiration for being very challenging, underrated fighters in the UFC. What makes each so interesting is the difference in styles, and while Brown may have the ability to find the finish, I believe the style of fight plays into Algeo’s favor far more than Brown. I believe this to be the case because of the improvement Algeo has had with his defensive grappling coupled with the fact he has the technical striking to nullify the power-pressure Brown uses to overwhelm fighters. Lastly, Algeo’s last fight, a loss, was to an opponent who presents the same style as Brown, and because of this, he can enter this fight with the knowledge and experience needed to pass the recently failed test. So, I am confidently taking Algeo here, and while he can land a variety of clean strikes to eventually find a late-round finish, the price of -160 makes it affordable to bet him straight in this matchup.

Pick: Algeo to win (-185)

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As he looks to bounce back from another small string of losses, Fili will once again test a young up-and-comer. Bill Algeo made his UFC debut just two years ago and has amassed a UFC record of 3-2 with wins over Herbert Burns, Joanderson Brito, and Spike Carlyle. A wrestler from Pennsylvania, Algeo finds himself face to face with his highest-profile opponent thus far, and a win over Fili would be a massive step in his career.

Fili vs. Algeo is one of the main card fights on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night 210 card. Subscribe to ESPN+ to watch every UFC fight live.

Betting Odds

Oddsmakers have had a difficult time calling this matchup, as evident in the negative odds on both sides. Fili is a slight favorite at -120 and Algeo at -110. Regardless of who fans pick, they will have to risk a little more to make their buck.

• Andre Fili: -120 (BetUS)
• Bill Algeo: -110 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Bill Algeo has developed a wide bouncy stance with karate influence. It’s a difficult style to keep up due to the constant movement and foot engagement, but he has tremendous cardio to back it up.While he is not the sharpest and slickest striker he does utilize his reach well with a good long front kick to the body that chips away at his opponents gas tank as well as a nice left switch kick to the body as well. His length also makes him difficult to takedown against the fence as he is good at securing deep underhooks and maintaining good clinch positions.

His original background is wrestling which is why his ability on top is his greatest asset. He has powerful ground and pound, and he will completely posture up to land it because he is confident in his submission defense as a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt. He has good grappling ability, especially in his use of stacking guards to pass and land his punches but has often had to withstand a storm before getting there. Algeo is very durable and game and seems to rally back from bad positions before mounting his own offense, but his endurance and grittiness is a major asset.

Fili is a dynamic striker and a well-rounded fighter. Although Algeo often takes advantage of his length, Fili will just about match it as the two are equal in height and reach within an inch. The biggest difference between the use of length, however, is that while Algeo almost negates himself looking for the finish and rushing in, Fili shows much more experience by flowing with his combinations when he smells blood. Watch for Fili’s slick jab, followed up by his left hook, which is thrown wide. He primarily boxes but also uses that hook to set up his right head kick. He will also happily switch and adapt between southpaw and orthodox easily.

While grappling is not Fili’s preferred area of contest, he does have nice fluid takedowns setup by his strikes. He has solid fundamentals however, Algeo will likely hold a bit of an advantage on the ground. That being said, Fili’s movement and constant feinting and jabbing could make it difficult for Algeo to time his shot unless he can put him against the cage. However, Fili has also shown good footwork and consistent circling, which will also make this difficult for him.

Prediction

Both men are good rangy fighters. I think that having their reach negated to some extent will be more beneficial for Fili with more experience and better technical boxing skills. Algeo may look to accentuate his range with his karate-esque footwork, but Fili cuts angles and switches stance enough to make it very difficult for Algeo to pick his bounce-ins too easily.

While Algeo may be a bit more comfortable in a grappling exchange, I think that Fili has the movement and wrestling to avoid most takedown attempts and the striking to make him pay for them when he can’t secure them.

Prediction: Andre Fili to win (-120 odds at BetUS)

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Algeo and Burns continually look for the finish, and both have an affinity to do so via submission given they have a combined 14 of 26 total wins by submission. While the ground game is indeed a likely path to victory for either man, both enjoy mixing it up on the feet as well given both truly enjoy the sport of fighting. The skills necessary to end the night before the judges are called into action accompanied by having the intrinsic desire to simply fight should make this fight a highly entertaining affair from start to finish.

Odds

Bill Algeo is priced at a -210 favorite – an implied 67% win rate – over Herbert Burns.

• Bill Algeo: -210 (MyBookie)
• Herbert Burns: +170 (MyBookie)

Breakdown

Let me raise my hand now, I am a big fan of Bill Algeo. His fight style is consistent fight-over-fight and this consistency extends to all facets of MMA, as he can fight anywhere the fight ends up. Moreover, Algeo seemingly gets stronger as the fight progresses, which in turn, makes him a guy that has the capability to weaponize cardio as he becomes more seasoned in the octagon.

From a more specific form of fight analysis, Algeo is a funky, creative striker who uses crisp technique mixed with a plethora of attacks – knees, kicks, elbows – to piece up his opponent. Choosing the slice and dice method of striking contrary to a hay-maker approach allows Algeo to separate himself from his opponent as the fight ensues, and if his opponent looks to alter a striking affair to a grappling fight, Algeo has shown to have very good takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Moreover, Algeo is comfortable and slick on the ground if it gets there, thus illustrating his well-rounded capabilities.

While the best attribute of Algeo is his ability to gradually separate himself between himself and his opponent as the fight ensues, this does present an inherent flaw relative to his fight game – early rounds are often close. While this issue looms large given MMA judging is seemingly becoming increasingly flawed, the ability to be solid everywhere, more dangerous than one would expect on the feet, and the potential to weaponize cardio, rationalizes my affinity towards Algeo as a fighter.

Herbert Burns, brother of Gilbert Burns, is an elite BJJ fighter. This comes to little surprise given his relation to the welterweight contender, but it is indeed important to note, particularly when analyzing the other aspects of his game. So, beyond having years of knowledge and comfort on the mat, allowing him to secure 8 of 11 wins by submission, Burns’ analysis does have extended levels.

There are two critical aspects to Burns’ fight game that will play a critical role in this fight. On the positive side, he is a strong, athletic mover in the octagon who does well in understanding how to implement his natural athleticism to land heavy punches that translate into takedown attempts. The biggest flaw to his game is that he has shown to have a poor gas tank, so if he does not get the finish early, he will likely struggle mightily when facing a cardio-weapon fighter.

Prediction

So long as Algeo does not elect to test his grappling skills against the extremely dangerous Brazilian, he should perform very well in this fight. Specifically, he has the grappling defense to halt the early shot attempts from Burns, and once done, his creative movement and non-stop peppering of strikes will quickly test the gas tank of Burns. While the threat of getting taken down and submitted is always there, I believe the totality of Algeo’s skills greatly supersede that of Burns, so I am confidently backing him in this fight.

Bet: Bill Algeo to win (-210 odds at MyBookie)

The post Prediction: Bill Algeo vs Herbert Burns | UFC on ABC 3 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Algeo has faced tough competition throughout his career and will look to get back into the win column with a win over Brito. Meanwhile, Brito, riding an impressive 11-fight win streak, will look to earn a win in his first UFC bout. Doing so, over the ever-tough Algeo, will reinforce the growing sentiment that Brito is a prospect to watch out for in the featherweight division.

Brito vs. Algeo betting odds

Brito is a short -130 favorite with an implied win rate of 56.5% over Algeo.

• Brito: -130 (FanDuel)
• Algeo: +110 (FanDuel)

Brito vs. Algeo breakdown

Although Algeo is just 1-2 in the UFC, he has fought extremely tough competition and has shown well in each of his fights, particularly with his output-heavy striking. He is a creative, unorthodox striker, whereby he routinely switches stances and throws unique attacks ranging from cutting elbows to spinning wheel kicks. What makes Algeo’s striking so unique beyond the plethora of attacks he throws at his opponent is the intent behind each strike thrown, as he is far more concerned with landing clean than landing with extreme power. Moreover, for being quite tall for the division, Algeo excels in a dirty-boxing range, as he routinely lands his most damaging strikes when his opponent rushes in to negate the range advantage Algeo has and utilizes well. The issue for him, and the reasoning for his two losses in the UFC, is the success his opponents have had taking him down to the mat – he has given up 17 takedowns over his 3 fights in the UFC. Although the success rate in defending the takedown is bleak, the ability to create scrambles once taken down primarily by remaining active in guard and a willingness to give up his back to enable him to get to his feet. The way in which he gets up sounds worrisome when facing someone with strong submissions, but Algeo has routinely shown the ability to get out of compromising submission attempts on his neck, thus negating the concern of giving up his back. Regardless of his ability to get back to his feet, Algeo will need to show improvement in combating the takedown to re-enter the win column and begin his climb up the featherweight division.

While Algeo is a lanky, creative striker, Brito is an explosive athlete with strong offensive grappling attributes. In Brito’s most recent bout in the DWCS, he showcased the ability to land takedowns with relative ease against a BJJ specialist. Once on the mat, he used his strong build to maintain top position and landed significant ground and pound against his opponent. Given the success he had in maintaining top position with landing ground striking, Brito did not showcase the strong skills he possesses with submissions nor power in his hands, as 5 of his 12 wins have come via guillotine/rear-naked choke and 5 of 12 wins coming from KO/TKO – a combined finishing rate of an impressive 83%. This impressive track record of wins and finishes in said wins warrants him being considered an exciting prospect, however, the question for Brito, as with many first-time fighters in the UFC, is will his track record hold up to the much better competition he will face in the UFC, beginning with facing the battle-tested striker in Algeo.

Brito vs. Algeo prediction

Although the odds are close to pick’em in either direction, I foresee this bout being somewhat lopsided once the fight commences. The issue is knowing which way it will be lopsided, hence the close odds. For Brito, a clear path to victory will be rushing in with a big overhand right to close the distance, and once there, secure a takedown that will lead to ground and pound or an opportunity to secure his favorite submission, the rear-naked choke. For Algeo, if he can combat the takedown, he should have the clear advantage in the striking department, given the creativity of his strikes and success in landing those strikes. Although the track record suggests backing Brito, given Algeo’s difficulty in combating a heavy-grappling attack accompanied by a willingness to give up his back, I am electing to choose the UFC-veteran that has faced the much tougher competition throughout his career and who has secured a recent win over a similar style opponent as Brito, Spike Carlyle – known for using a wrestle-heavy attack built on natural strength over technical ability.

Bet: Bill Algeo to win

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