Prediction: Bill Algeo vs Herbert Burns | UFC on ABC 3
With both of their scheduled opponents pulling out of each respective right, Bill “Senor Perfecto” Algeo (15-6; 2-2 in the UFC) will now fight Herbert “The Blaze” Burns (11-3; 2-1 in the UFC) on the UFC Long Island card.
Algeo and Burns continually look for the finish, and both have an affinity to do so via submission given they have a combined 14 of 26 total wins by submission. While the ground game is indeed a likely path to victory for either man, both enjoy mixing it up on the feet as well given both truly enjoy the sport of fighting. The skills necessary to end the night before the judges are called into action accompanied by having the intrinsic desire to simply fight should make this fight a highly entertaining affair from start to finish.
Odds
Bill Algeo is priced at a -210 favorite – an implied 67% win rate – over Herbert Burns.
Breakdown
Let me raise my hand now, I am a big fan of Bill Algeo. His fight style is consistent fight-over-fight and this consistency extends to all facets of MMA, as he can fight anywhere the fight ends up. Moreover, Algeo seemingly gets stronger as the fight progresses, which in turn, makes him a guy that has the capability to weaponize cardio as he becomes more seasoned in the octagon.
From a more specific form of fight analysis, Algeo is a funky, creative striker who uses crisp technique mixed with a plethora of attacks – knees, kicks, elbows – to piece up his opponent. Choosing the slice and dice method of striking contrary to a hay-maker approach allows Algeo to separate himself from his opponent as the fight ensues, and if his opponent looks to alter a striking affair to a grappling fight, Algeo has shown to have very good takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Moreover, Algeo is comfortable and slick on the ground if it gets there, thus illustrating his well-rounded capabilities.
While the best attribute of Algeo is his ability to gradually separate himself between himself and his opponent as the fight ensues, this does present an inherent flaw relative to his fight game – early rounds are often close. While this issue looms large given MMA judging is seemingly becoming increasingly flawed, the ability to be solid everywhere, more dangerous than one would expect on the feet, and the potential to weaponize cardio, rationalizes my affinity towards Algeo as a fighter.
Herbert Burns, brother of Gilbert Burns, is an elite BJJ fighter. This comes to little surprise given his relation to the welterweight contender, but it is indeed important to note, particularly when analyzing the other aspects of his game. So, beyond having years of knowledge and comfort on the mat, allowing him to secure 8 of 11 wins by submission, Burns’ analysis does have extended levels.
There are two critical aspects to Burns’ fight game that will play a critical role in this fight. On the positive side, he is a strong, athletic mover in the octagon who does well in understanding how to implement his natural athleticism to land heavy punches that translate into takedown attempts. The biggest flaw to his game is that he has shown to have a poor gas tank, so if he does not get the finish early, he will likely struggle mightily when facing a cardio-weapon fighter.
Prediction
So long as Algeo does not elect to test his grappling skills against the extremely dangerous Brazilian, he should perform very well in this fight. Specifically, he has the grappling defense to halt the early shot attempts from Burns, and once done, his creative movement and non-stop peppering of strikes will quickly test the gas tank of Burns. While the threat of getting taken down and submitted is always there, I believe the totality of Algeo’s skills greatly supersede that of Burns, so I am confidently backing him in this fight.
Bet: Bill Algeo to win (-210 odds at MyBookie)