Joanderson Brito vs. Bill Algeo: UFC fight breakdown, prediction, betting odds
A clash of styles takes place when unorthodox striker, Bill Algeo, holding a professional record of 14-6, takes on the wrestle-heavy, Dana White’s Contender Series alumnus, Joanderson Brito.
Algeo has faced tough competition throughout his career and will look to get back into the win column with a win over Brito. Meanwhile, Brito, riding an impressive 11-fight win streak, will look to earn a win in his first UFC bout. Doing so, over the ever-tough Algeo, will reinforce the growing sentiment that Brito is a prospect to watch out for in the featherweight division.
Brito vs. Algeo betting odds
Brito is a short -130 favorite with an implied win rate of 56.5% over Algeo.
Brito vs. Algeo breakdown
Although Algeo is just 1-2 in the UFC, he has fought extremely tough competition and has shown well in each of his fights, particularly with his output-heavy striking. He is a creative, unorthodox striker, whereby he routinely switches stances and throws unique attacks ranging from cutting elbows to spinning wheel kicks. What makes Algeo’s striking so unique beyond the plethora of attacks he throws at his opponent is the intent behind each strike thrown, as he is far more concerned with landing clean than landing with extreme power. Moreover, for being quite tall for the division, Algeo excels in a dirty-boxing range, as he routinely lands his most damaging strikes when his opponent rushes in to negate the range advantage Algeo has and utilizes well. The issue for him, and the reasoning for his two losses in the UFC, is the success his opponents have had taking him down to the mat – he has given up 17 takedowns over his 3 fights in the UFC. Although the success rate in defending the takedown is bleak, the ability to create scrambles once taken down primarily by remaining active in guard and a willingness to give up his back to enable him to get to his feet. The way in which he gets up sounds worrisome when facing someone with strong submissions, but Algeo has routinely shown the ability to get out of compromising submission attempts on his neck, thus negating the concern of giving up his back. Regardless of his ability to get back to his feet, Algeo will need to show improvement in combating the takedown to re-enter the win column and begin his climb up the featherweight division.
While Algeo is a lanky, creative striker, Brito is an explosive athlete with strong offensive grappling attributes. In Brito’s most recent bout in the DWCS, he showcased the ability to land takedowns with relative ease against a BJJ specialist. Once on the mat, he used his strong build to maintain top position and landed significant ground and pound against his opponent. Given the success he had in maintaining top position with landing ground striking, Brito did not showcase the strong skills he possesses with submissions nor power in his hands, as 5 of his 12 wins have come via guillotine/rear-naked choke and 5 of 12 wins coming from KO/TKO – a combined finishing rate of an impressive 83%. This impressive track record of wins and finishes in said wins warrants him being considered an exciting prospect, however, the question for Brito, as with many first-time fighters in the UFC, is will his track record hold up to the much better competition he will face in the UFC, beginning with facing the battle-tested striker in Algeo.
Brito vs. Algeo prediction
Although the odds are close to pick’em in either direction, I foresee this bout being somewhat lopsided once the fight commences. The issue is knowing which way it will be lopsided, hence the close odds. For Brito, a clear path to victory will be rushing in with a big overhand right to close the distance, and once there, secure a takedown that will lead to ground and pound or an opportunity to secure his favorite submission, the rear-naked choke. For Algeo, if he can combat the takedown, he should have the clear advantage in the striking department, given the creativity of his strikes and success in landing those strikes. Although the track record suggests backing Brito, given Algeo’s difficulty in combating a heavy-grappling attack accompanied by a willingness to give up his back, I am electing to choose the UFC-veteran that has faced the much tougher competition throughout his career and who has secured a recent win over a similar style opponent as Brito, Spike Carlyle – known for using a wrestle-heavy attack built on natural strength over technical ability.
Bet: Bill Algeo to win