Betting Odds

Bill Algeo is a -185 favorite over TJ Brown.

• Bill Algeo: -185
• TJ Brown: +160

Fight Breakdown

Candidly, Bill Algeo is one of my favorite fighters on the roster. The reasoning for this is not due to belief in him being a future champion nor having the violent fight-ending ability, instead, the consistency that he displays in the octagon makes him someone I trust from a handicapping standpoint as well as a fighter I trust to deliver entertaining performances each time the octagon door closes.

Algeo’s consistency fight-over-fight is done by parlaying well-rounded ability with a pace and pressure that weaponizes cardio. Because of his cardio and output, Algeo puts himself in a position to win contrary to relying on fight-ending ability, i.e. Marlon Vera’s gameplan. While putting himself in a position, he has lost decisions and this is ultimately rooted in developing grappling, meaning, he has given up takedowns and has had to defend legitimate submission attempts once on the mat causing him to lose close fights. This issue is a particular concern when fighting someone as dangerous as TJ Brown is on the mat, however, Algeo has improved his takedown defense fight over the fight, and while he is certainly far from an elite wrestler, he is someone who can stuff takedowns and get up off the mat if indeed taken there. If kept off the mat, Algeo’s ability to land at a constant and frequent rate gives him a viable chance to not only win here in this spot but begin a climb to fighting for ranked contention.

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As stated, TJ Brown is a very dangerous opponent to contend with on the mat. Having earned 10 of his 17 professional wins by submission, Brown is more than comfortable on the mat, and most importantly, equally comfortable being in top or bottom position. This interest is important given Brown’s offensive wrestling is good but not elite of the elite — 56% success rate.

Knowing his danger on the mat, the question arises why many opponents have taken him there, and the answer to that is due to the style of fighting Brown uses on the feet. Meaning, Brown, who has impressive size and athletism, throws strikes with ill intentions and is more than willing to overextend on a right hand or throw a flying knee that leaves him off balance because he is more than willing to get taken to the mat from a defensive perspective, where he then can work his way to a submission finish. This freedom to throw every shot with max damage intention makes Brown extremely dangerous. While this is the case, if his opponent has comfort with evading threatening shots and remains standing, then a more technical opponent can land strikes cleanly against the less-than-superb defensive striker in Brown, and Algeo is just that type of opponent, thus making him equally as threatening opponent for Brown as Brown is for him.

Prediction

Both Brown and Algeo deserve a ton of respect and admiration for being very challenging, underrated fighters in the UFC. What makes each so interesting is the difference in styles, and while Brown may have the ability to find the finish, I believe the style of fight plays into Algeo’s favor far more than Brown. I believe this to be the case because of the improvement Algeo has had with his defensive grappling coupled with the fact he has the technical striking to nullify the power-pressure Brown uses to overwhelm fighters. Lastly, Algeo’s last fight, a loss, was to an opponent who presents the same style as Brown, and because of this, he can enter this fight with the knowledge and experience needed to pass the recently failed test. So, I am confidently taking Algeo here, and while he can land a variety of clean strikes to eventually find a late-round finish, the price of -160 makes it affordable to bet him straight in this matchup.

Pick: Algeo to win (-185)

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Benitez vs. Brown betting odds

Gabriel Benitez is a respectable favorite over TJ Brown.

• Benitez: -198 (FanDuel)
• Brown: +166 (FanDuel)

Benitez vs. Brown breakdown

Stylistically and statistically, Benitez should be more successful than 6-5. He is a long southpaw kickboxer with dangerous power in his kicks, especially his left kick to the body. “Moggly” is comfortable fighting off his back foot where he can counter a lazy combination. Benitez has a positive strike differential, a consistent volume, and, despite only stuffing 56% of takedown attempts, a quality submission game, even from his back.

However, Benitez has struggled to find consistent success. Benitez’s core struggle is his fight IQ. He has lost fights after unloading too much volume in round 1, head-hunting a finish, and then gassing out in later rounds. Also, he has engaged in ill-advised firefights in the pocket with fighters who were struggling at range. Furthermore, in those firefights, Benitez, looking for the finish, ignored his own defense, left his chin exposed, and ended up being the one finished. At times, even in a fight he loses, Benitez can look effortlessly impressive- kicking at range, moving laterally, and managing his output. However, when he makes a mistake, it often ends with him being on the wrong end of a knockout or decision.

Brown, similarly to his opponent, also engages in brawls where he is seemingly willing to go toe to toe with his foe until someone drops. This style has resulted in early finishes outside the UFC but has proved less effective in the big show. “Downtown” often looks for an overhand right that does have some pop on the end of it; then, if he misses, Brown will look to shoot a takedown following the momentum of his wild strikes. He averages four takedowns per fight at a 58% clip. But, as with his striking, Brown leaves himself unprotected in the favor of an almost all-offense style of attack. On the feet, or shooting a takedown, Brown will overextend his strikes or leave his neck exposed. This has caused him to be finished six times. If his pressure and blitz style can overwhelm his opponent, we’ve seen Brown find success. However, more commonly, he’ll rush and pressure forward early, then gas out later or get finished after getting himself in a dangerous position.

Benitez vs. Brown prediction

This fight could be fireworks or a sloppy three-round brawl. So long as Benitez doesn’t make another critical error, I see him being able to keep the fight standing, manage his cardio, and keep Brown on the edge of his strikes and catch Brown diving in.

Prediction: Benitez inside the distance

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