Holloway vs. Allen will fight for five rounds on the UFC on ESPN 44 card that is set to take place at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, this Saturday night.

It’ll be the promotion’s second time visiting Kansas City and the first time since 2017. The card will also feature an exciting co-main event bout between Edson Barboza and Billy Quarantillo.

Read on for our staff predictions and UFC fight analysis before the UFC on ESPN 44 main event: Holloway vs Allen.

Betting Odds

According to the betting odds from MyBookie, Max Holloway is the favorite to win the fight with a negative money line of -181, while Arnold Allen is the underdog with a positive money line of +141.

Specifically, a bettor would need to wager $181 on Holloway to win $100 if he wins the fight, while a $100 bet on Allen would result in a $141 profit if he wins.

• Max Holloway: -181 (MyBookie)
• Arnold Allen: +141 (MyBookie)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Although scheduled for the main event last October, an injury put a quick stop to Arnold Allen’s recent performance against Calvin Kattar opening the second round. There is no sugar coating that his next fight opposite Max Holloway is a big ask not only as a steep jump in competition but also as his first potential 25 minute contest is against the most dangerous 5 round fighter outside of the champion Volkanovski.

Therefore, it will be on Allen to pace himself through this fight, and where we have seen him unload and swarm hurt opponents in the past, he cannot have the same confidence against the legendary durability of Holloway. Allen is a southpaw, Holloway conventional. Allen should look to utilize a combination of his slick lead calf kick and accurate left cross to open his combinations, and follow up with the lead hand rather than begin with a conventional jab. He should have the power advantage in the matchup but in order to get to his target it’s important that the calf kick eventually starts to weigh on Holloway’s footwork.

Holloway is the more active and mobile fighter, he has a wider range in footwork styles he can adapt to, and typically switches stance often to open angles and float in and out of range. Although his primary stance is conventional, meaning he too has to rely on other leading tactics outside of his jab. A southpaw vs orthodox matchup includes a battle for who can keep the lead leg on the outside, opening the rear cross, makes it easier to parry and the lead hook, for Holloway he needs to dominate this area and when he finds himself losing it, go to the crafty front kicks to the body and knees that he used so well in his last few fights. Allen has good movement and activity but when he does settle he tends to lean heavy on his lead leg, exposing his knee to the higher end of damage that lead front and side-kick can cause. Using these kicks to set up his entries is also important, especially once establishing the front kick, using the knee raise feint to step in boxing he loves so much.

As mentioned before, this could very well be Allen’s introduction to rounds 4 and 5 and it should be a priority for Holloway to bring him there. Allen has not shown a lack of conditioning but he does unload heavily if he smells blood in the water to the point where he tightens up and throws with everything he’s got. A few instances where he over exerted and he could pay for that late. He also tends to unload with a barrage of close hooks, where he loads up and swings back and forth, in a way that is so fast and powerful it swarms his opponents but not in a way that’s particularly unexpected. If Allen gets overly zealous or excited, watch for Holloway to throw down the pipe and have some success, especially his rear uppercut and jump in knee.

Pick: Max Holloway to win (-181 at MyBookie)

Michael Pounders

Holloway v Allen might not be the name recognition draw that even a fight like Masvidal v Burns; but, wow, this fight should be fantastic! Both fighters are highly skilled, incredibly tough, well-rounded, and at the top of one of the deepest and toughest divisions in the UFC.

For many, Holloway, following his mauling of Kattar, earned himself the prestigious moniker of the best boxer in the UFC. Max has elite hand speed, crisp and technical combinations, and high level evasive movement, even though he often doesn’t need it. Max often doesn’t need his defensive footwork and head movement because he also has one of the best chins in the UFC. No matter how clean the shot, how much volume comes his way, or how much volume he’s thrown himself, Holloway seems impervious to strikes, possibly incapable of being finished. On top of all of that, Holloway also possibly has the best striking cardio in the UFC. In 2018, Holloway broke the record for most significant strikes landed in a single fight with 290. Holloway held that record until 2021 when he broke his own record with a historic amount of volume. Holloway landed 445 significant strikes in a 25-minute fight against Calvin Kattar. That is not a typo, Max landed 445 significant strikes, shattering his old record! That performance, while likely one that will never be surpassed, illustrates how Holloway fights. He looks to box with unmatched pressure and volume for the full 25 minutes. He lands a variety of combinations from a variety of angles with speed, precision, and power. Holloway has a wide boxing base but uses fluid and fundamental footwork to evade counter shots, counter opponents himself, and cut angles to increase the success of his own shots. He’s simply the best boxer in the UFC. Holloway also has excellent takedown defense and regularly keeps the fight standing, in his world.

Allen is a polished and well-schooled fighter who, like many other young prospects turned contenders, have trained the full gambit of MMA from a young age, rather than starting in just one facet. Allen’s training shows in each of his fights. He is able to smoothly transition back and forth from striking to grappling with impressive comfort. Allen fights from a southpaw stance with technical kickboxing. While his kickboxing is technical, it is anything but robotic. He flows in and out of range well as he looks to pressure his opponent back to the cage. Typically, Allen is at his best when he can trap his opponent with their back against the octagon. When he has an opponent pinned like prey, Allen is able to attack from all angles with his full arsenal of weapons. He reads his opponents so well and so quickly it sometimes appears like he knows what they’re doing before they do it. Because of his complete skillset, Allen can hurt and opponent with strikes against the cage, clinch and land more heavy blows, clinch and transition for a takedown, or even take the back for a submission. No matter what his opponent tries to do, when he sees an opening, Allen has the skills to exploit it. Allen has the skills, cardio, killer instinct, and level-headed approach in the octagon to be a champion. The only question remains is how he responds when the lights shine brightest. Allen was on his way to proving he can handle the big stage in his last fight, clearly winning round 1, but a knee injury to Kattar caused an early stoppage. He’ll look to prove, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that he is ready for a shot at the belt with a win on Saturday night.

I’ve gone back and forth on this fight several times a day since the fight was announced. I think the line is exactly where it should be, giving Holloway is a -175 giving him implied odds of 65%. I think that is spot on. Holloway deserves to be the favorite and has the tools to dismantle Allen’s attacks with his typical high volume pressure boxing. But Holloway has struggled against southpaws, Allen seems to improve drastically fight after fight, and Allen’s biggest question is simply that he hasn’t done it yet. That results in Allen deserving to be a small underdog against one of the best fighters in the UFC. My best bet is for the fight to go over 4.5 rounds at a -130. Holloway might truly be unfinishable and Allen has the defense, youth, cardio, and toughness himself to push a decision. I also like a sprinkle on either fighter to win by split decision. I think this fight will be a back and forth masterclass in MMA that results in a razor thin decision. But, as far as picking a fighter to win, I’ll ever so slightly side with Holloway. In a fight that I expect to be close, I like backing the guy I know will throw volume for 25 full minutes.

Best Bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-130 at MyBookie)

Joe Pounders

Max “Blessed” Holloway is one of the best non-champions in the entire UFC. Often, when a division has a generational-level champion, there is a contender just below that would be champion if it were not for the generational talent. For the featherweight division, the generational champion is Alexander Volkanovski, and the contender that would be champion if it were not for him would undoubtedly be Max Holloway. I say undoubtedly because Max has not lost a featherweight fight to someone other than Volk in 10 years. This parlayed with him beating the likes of Aldo, Ortega, Kattar, and Yair, rationalizes this statement.

Max is an arguable top 10 pound-for-pound fight currently on the roster, and this stems from a unique ability to weaponize cardio through strikes. Often, the best fighters that weaponize cardio do so via wrestling, i.e. Merab Dvalishvili, but Max is unique by throwing constant strike output with non-stop forward pressure. This style smothers his opponent through taxing cardio, but also, also him to land at a rate that puts on serious damage as the fight ensues, as seen in the Calvin Kattar fight. Beyond elite striking and cardio, Max has very good grappling, as he understands how to use his large frame to poster up when a shot is taken against him and understands how to time a takedown himself if he so chooses to wrestle. All in all, Max is an elite UFC fighter, a future HOF’er, and someone who has little to no flaws in his game.

Arnold Allen is an elite well-rounded fighter in his own right. From lightning-quick, in-and-out movement strikes, to solid offensive wrestling, Allen has become one of the biggest problems to contend with in the division. What is quite interesting is that he, being an ascending prospect who is undefeated in the UFC over 10 fights, is just now entering his prime. This proposition of just now entering the fight prime where he has fine-tuned his skills is scary for his opponents to contend with, as he has learned to keep his well-rounded, highly technical skillset to now, having fight-ending capabilities. This ability, to now find the finish, is not only beneficial to avoid questionable judging, but more importantly, is an indicator of eliteness given many fighters are well-rounded, but those fighters who have the ability to finish both on the feet and mat against elite contenders are fighters who fight for, and potentially win, the belt.

Diving deeper into Allen’s fight game, he is comfortable standing southpaw against orthodox strikers, and this stance opposition allows him to let his hands go freely without the need to worry about wearing damaging outside leg kicks. Moreover, Allen understands how an overhand left can lead seamlessly into a takedown, and this style of throwing a big shot directly into a takedown is highly effective, particularly against an opponent with technical takedown defense. Once on the mat, he does a good job staying heavy on top position while finding angles to land slicing elbows and/or a submission finish. In total, Allen, similarly to Max, has very few flaws in his fight game, making this matchup highly entertaining!

I, as with many other fight fans, am a big fan of Arnold Allen given his success in the UFC has paid dividends from a handicapping standpoint. His style is very repeatable in the octagon, and he has shown intelligence in choosing the easiest path to victory when needed. With all that said, Max Holloway is simply too elite to go against here. Simply put, Max is one of the best strikers, one of the best at weaponizing cardio, a more than good enough grappler, and for a little cherry on top, has one of the best chins in the entire UFC. While it wouldn’t surprise me one bit that Allen makes this fight close by landing powerful blows and even a takedown or two, Max is simply too good to go against here, and at a price of -180, he is easily bettable.

Pick: Max Holloway to win (-181 at MyBookie)

The post Staff Predictions: Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen appeared first on The Body Lock.

Barboza, who still has one of the best resumes in the UFC, has dropped his last 2 fights and is 2-5 in his last 7. He’s split his two wins between knockout and decision while his losses include 2 unanimous decisions, 2 split decisions, and 2 knockouts.

Quarantillo is 5-2 in the UFC but is only 3-2 in his last 5. All three of his wins have come via knockout, in late round two and round three, while both of his losses were via unanimous decision.

Betting Odds

Quarantillo opened as a slight favorite and has grown throughout the week.

• Quarantillo: -175 (MyBookie)
• Barboza: +130 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Most MMA fans know who Edson Barboza is and how he fights. He has excellent kicks, strikes with speed and power, and has an athletic and electric style. He is, even at 37, incredibly fast and dangerous, and ramps up his power as the fight goes on. His striking, at one time, was one of the most feared skill sets in the lightweight division. The criticism of Barboza has been the same for his whole career: grappling. Because of his long frame, athletic ability, and natural strength, Barboza’s takedown defense has been solid throughout most of his career. However, because of his kick heavy attack and explosive striking, he can often be caught on one leg or off balance and create openings to be taken down.

As he’s gotten older, his style has stayed the same but his takedown defense, once rooted in youthful athleticism, has started to dip. In his last fight, we saw Barboza get ragdolled by Mitchell, a strong wrestler in his own right. This presented the question: is Mitchell that good of a wrestler, or is Barboza’s age finally starting to catch up to him? I think both are true. Offensively, Barboza is still twitchy, powerful, and can hit like a truck. But his ability to keep the fight upright is starting to decline with age.

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Quarantillo, or “Billy Q,” is one of the most gritty fighters on the roster. He has excellent cardio, one hell of a chin, and a will to push through adversity like few others. In each of his fights, Quarantillo shows that he can not only withstand punishment but thrive despite it. He faces that punishment in most fights because he is often a step behind athletically, not the most polished striker, and his takedown defense is inconsistent. Quarantillo has to often overcome the lack of natural gifts in the cage and rely on toughness, cardio, and pressure to win fights.

That is not to say he is without skill. Bill Q has a black belt, is good on the ground on top and from his back, and can pile up damage on the feet through relentless volume. His typical game plan is to pressure, pressure, and then pressure some more. No matter what comes back his way, Quarantillo looks to drown his opponent with a constant mix of striking, grappling, and clinch fighting. No matter where the fight goes, Billy Q is comfortable and is capable at inflicting punishment. The knock on him as has always been a lack of athleticism and he faces one of the most naturally athletic fighters in the division.

Prediction and Betting Guide

If Barboza never fought Mitchell, I think he would be favored in this fight. Barboza has the striking speed and variety that should allow him to piece Quarantillo up for 15 minutes given the predictable movement and pressure from Billy Q. However, the Mitchell fight did happen and it showed a less-than-skilled striker who was a step slow land cleanly and even drop Barboza. That leads many to believe Billy Q can have similar success on the feet.

Moreover, Mitchell landed 4 takedowns and controlled Barboza for over 11 minutes. While Billy Q is not the wrestler that Mitchell is, Barboza seemed exhausted by the end of his previous fight and Billy Q is more than capable of exhausting opponents through his grappling. I think this fight will come down to round 1. Barboza, with the speed advantage, will likely land early. If Billy Q can time those strikes with counters of his own, get Barboza against the cage where his kicks are nullified, or even land a takedown, then I expect Billy Q to relentlessly rinse and repeat. However, if Barboza can enter a flow state, strike with fluidity, and keep Quarantillo back, he should be able to keep that up for all 3 rounds.

My best bet is a live bet on Billy Q after round 1 if he can achieve any of the above successes. If round 1 is close or even in Billy Q losses it, his line should drop to near pick’em. Many of us though don’t have access to live lines, so, my favorite straight bet on this fight is fight goes to decision. Quarantillo is insanely tough so Barboza will be unlikely to get the finish. And Billy Q will likely look to grind out a decision win to negate the flashy attacks, resulting in a clinch and wrestle-heavy fight that lends itself to a decision as well.

Best Bets: Fight goes the distance (-105) and Quarantillo live after round 1

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The post Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo prediction | UFC on ESPN 44 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Munhoz, who is currently ranked #9 in the world at 135lbs, is Gutierrez’s ticket to the top 10. The Brazilian, Munhoz has a plethora of experience against the world’s best including Sean O’Malley, Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Aljamain Sterling, Cody Garbrandt, and Rob Font, the latter two whom he beat.

Betting Odds

Gutierrez will ride his 8-fight unbeaten streak into the fight as the -222 favorite over Munhoz.

• Gutierrez: -222 (MyBookie)
• Munhoz: +171 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Chris Gutierrez is a specialist striker, with clean, precise movement and some of the best kicks in the UFC. He is extremely technical and elusive, and although he does not carry major KO power in his hands, his ability to explode into a sniper-like knee, spinning back fist, or kick allows him to finish his opponent fairly often and very definitively.

He will enjoy two inches of reach and three inches of height over Munhoz, which he is known to use well, sliding just out of range of strikes and landing kicks in return. He will need to use lateral movement in conjunction with his stance switching to get Pedro chasing him at odd angles and in doing so, makes it difficult to cut off the cage. He will sometimes throw low volume, to allow his opponents the confidence to rush in, and he will throw fundamental combinations in order to set up his flashier moves. He will need to be wary of losing out on output if he is unable to put Munhoz away but in general, his ability to find the kill shot means Gutierrez may be unphased by being outthrown. He will look to get Munhoz chasing him back and forth on the cage, settle for a moment and allow Munhoz to square up, and then fire a knee, punch, or kick down the middle to the frozen Munhoz.

However when Guttierez is put under pressure, he will sometimes lash out, and if he does spin at an inopportune time, there may be an opportunity for Munhoz to get around to the back and secure grappling control. That being said, while Guttierez’s jiu-jitsu isn’t as polished as his striking it is still technically sound, and expect him to have some ability to work back to his feet in situations.

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Pedro Munhoz’s biggest key to success in this one is his low kicks. Munhoz has blistering outside calf kicks and can throw from either stance. Gutierrez outclasses anyone who headhunts on him, but if Munhoz can beat up the lower body and invest in the midsection, his success upstairs will be much higher later on. He cannot, however, throw even his low kicks blindly, as they also allow for counter knees if thrown too obviously, Instead Munhoz should keep up a pace with a lot of fakes and feints upstairs, to land low and then open up the head, his ability to mix up his targets is crucial. Munhoz has had difficulty getting inside the pocket to work his boxing against taller opponents than Gutierrez but with the footwork and distance control of Guttierrez, it will seem like he is an inch or two even further.

On paper, Munhoz has the grappling advantage, but he tends to go there opportunistically and not actively hunt for takedowns. If Guttierez slips a punch and stuffs his own distance, Munhoz may snap onto his neck, or if Munhoz connects and wobbles Gutierrez, that is when he may take positional control and make use of his BJJ credentials. He is typically known for his guillotine, both jumping bottom and maintaining the neck as he mounts.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I do believe that Pedro Munhoz has the tools to win. The biggest being his low calf kicks, the second being his pace and output, and then finally his jiu-jitsu. However, decision-making, makes fights and in the past Munhoz has opted to headhunt a bit too much with his boxing and neglect the takedown opportunities. I do think that the low kicks will be a hurdle for Gutierrez to overcome, but if he can, his ability to move and get Munhoz chasing him will provide him the openings he needs to land the more significant shots. I don’t think that He necessarily stops Munhoz, but he could very easily hurt him in big moments throughout the fight and sway the judges even if he is out landed.

Pick: Chris Gutierrez to win (-222)

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The post Chris Gutierrez vs. Pedro Munhoz prediction | UFC on ESPN 44 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Azamat “The Professional” Murzakanov, 36, joined the UFC via DWCS late in his career but has made the most of his stint thus far. He is 2-0 with back to back 3rd round finishes.

Jacoby and Murzakanov will fight at this Saturday night’s UFC on ESPN 44 card.

Betting Odds

Jacoby opened as a slightly larger favorite but has steadily dropped throughout the week as money has come in on Murzakanov.

• Jacoby: -165
• Murzakanov: +135

Fight Breakdown

Jacoby has really turned a corner in recent fights. While his UFC record was perfect before his split draw against Cutelaba, Jacoby showed significant improvement after that fight. His kickboxing, which has always been technical and varied, appeared to level up. He has more snap on his kicks, threw more combinations compared to single shots, and started to use his bouncy and fluid footwork to set traps rather than just as a defensive tool. To put it plainly, Jacoby’s game has seemed to “click.” Even in his split decision loss last time out, Jacoby’s offense looked polished and he landed effectively.

The biggest issue Jacoby has faced, especially at this weight class, is his lack of finishing power. He tends to be more surgical on the feet, land with volume, and hurt his opponents with tactful attacks. While that approach has been effective, as he gets closer to the rankings, it is a dangerous proposition. Light heavyweight has some truly powerful strikers who, if Jacoby allows to stick around for 15 minutes, can find the button with one shot and turn a loss into a finish. Moreover, as we saw in his last loss, damage reigns supreme in the eyes of the judges. Jacoby outlanded Rountree 120 to 85, yet lost a split decision because Rountree landed the more impactful blows. Jacoby’s kickboxing got him to this level but that same style might be what causes him to plateau against more powerful strikers.

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Murzakanov has a perfect record and back to back finishes. On paper Murzakanov seems like a killer in the cage, but, watching him fight, I’m not sold. Defensively, Murzakanov is slow and hittable. He tends to walk straight forward with a wide base and look for hooks that leave him exposed to straight shots up the middle. His striking is powerful but limited. He tends to throw a looping left hook and follow it with a straight right or an overhand right, rinse and repeat. His tendency to move forward through fire allows him to pin opponents against the cage where his hooks are more effective and he can look to land spinning or leaping attacks as well.

However, Murzakanov has questionable cardio and those high explosive attacks deplete his energy more significantly. “The Professional’s” boxing looked a bit better in his last fight, he threw more volume and landed at a higher rate. But he relied heavily on his edge in athleticism and the foundation of his striking- blitz hooks- was still the same. Murzakanov is powerful, persistent, and dangerous even with a questionable gas tank. But, given his striking style, he is constantly in danger himself against fighters with variety, countering ability, and technical straight shots.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The interesting angle in this fight is that neither man has that impressive of a resume. Jacoby has been able to run through lower-level competition to begin his career and Murzakanov was given back-to-back fighters whose limited athleticism played perfectly into his style. This fight should answer a lot of questions about both men, namely, how does Jacoby fare against a dangerous striker- he lost against the only one he’s faced- and how does Murzakanov fare against a fighter that can match his athleticism and doesn’t have a clear achilles heel? I went into this breakdown anticipating a confident play on Jacoby because of his clear edge in striking technique, footwork, cardio, and output. Plus, Murzakanov is riding back-to-back highlight knockouts that have likely impacted the line. However, Jacoby’s tendency to let his opponents stick around for 15 minutes worries me a bit as Murzakanov is dangerous. Still, I like Jacoby here. Outside of a 3rd flash finish in a row for Murzakanov, I don’t see him keeping pace with the more experienced and technical kickboxer. I would wait to make this bet, though, as money comes in on Murzakanov, Jacoby might close closer to -150.

Best Bet: Jacoby to win (-165)

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Rafa “Gifted” Garcia, 28, is 14-3 professionally and 3-3 in the UFC. In the UFC, all but one of his fights have gone the distance.

Guida vs. Garcia will take place on this Saturday night’s UFC on ESPN 44 card.

Betting Odds

Garcia opened just north of a 2:1 favorite and has grown a bit early in the week.

• Garcia: -250 (MyBookie)
• Guida: +200 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Guida, despite his age, is a pressure and cardio machine in the cage. He keeps a high volume of strikes, that are more pitter-patter than actually damaging, while he looks to press forward against the cage. He is able to eat heavy counterstrikes and keep walking forward to keep up his pressure. His striking style- volume without much power and a tendency to get hit often- will regularly create close rounds. Therefore, Guida’s primary gameplan, clinch fighting and wrestling, is all the more important. He looks to push his opponent back to the cage and grind on them for the whole round. He’ll land in tight body shots, a few elbows, and a knee; but, his primary strategy is to grind his opponents into exhaustion. He forces his opponents to carry his weight against the cage, deal with persistent head position, and rarely allows them to get a full breath.

From the clinch, Guida looks to drag his opponents down to the mat. His takedowns are less about getting a leg or a trip and more about opportunistically responding to an exhausted opponent by pulling them to the ground. Guida knows that he often has the cardio edge in fights, and through his clinch fighting and takedown attempts, weaponizes that cardio to drag the fight into deep waters. However, early in fights, Guida is vulnerable to explosive strikes, better footwork, and counter-wrestling.

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Garcia is an enigma in the cage. Despite losing a unanimous decision against Klose, he really impressed as a massive underdog. Garcia threw over 200 strike attempts defended 2 takedowns, and landed some heavy blows. Then, he came into his next fight as a sizable favorite and dropped a unanimous decision with a less-than-stellar performance. Yes, that decision loss was controversial; but, being the nearly 3:1 favorite that he was, the fight shouldn’t have been that close. In that loss, Garcia lowered his striking output to 145 attempts but increased his wrestling significantly, landing 5 of 12 attempts. Both of these fights embody Garcia in the cage. He is an explosive athlete who can pour on his varied striking with real power but tends to hit a fair amount of air in his combinations. He can also be a relentless wrestler who spams takedowns with a high rate of success but struggles to hold position on the mat.

When he’s at his best, Garcia wrestles early and often, then he uses the threat of takedown attempts to get his opponent to lower his hands so Garcia can land something heavy. However, he doesn’t always follow the best game plan, he has gassed out before, and he can put himself in dangerous positions. Simply put, Garcia is a dangerous matchup for most unranked lightweights but he’s difficult to trust.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This is a winnable fight for either man. Both fighters like to create chaos in the cage, weather it, and capitalize on an opponent’s mistake. The key difference between them is Guida gets stronger as the fight goes on while Garcia is dangerous early but can gas late. In this kind of fan-friendly but volatile fight, you have to find plus money to bet.

For my money, I like Garcia to win in rounds 1 or 2. Both men should come out with high-pressure attacks and little regard for their own defense. Garcia is the much more explosive and dangerous fighter; so, as long as he has the energy, he should have the advantage. Plus, 4 of the last 5 times that Guida has been finished, he was finished in the 1st round.

Because I’m advising 2 bets that ensures at least 1 will lose, I recommend taking your normal bet amount and splitting it. Put 60%, or .6u on RD1 and 40% or .4u on round 2.

Best Bet: Garcia to win in round 1 (+450) and Garcia to win in round 2 (+800)

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Betting Odds

Bill Algeo is a -185 favorite over TJ Brown.

• Bill Algeo: -185
• TJ Brown: +160

Fight Breakdown

Candidly, Bill Algeo is one of my favorite fighters on the roster. The reasoning for this is not due to belief in him being a future champion nor having the violent fight-ending ability, instead, the consistency that he displays in the octagon makes him someone I trust from a handicapping standpoint as well as a fighter I trust to deliver entertaining performances each time the octagon door closes.

Algeo’s consistency fight-over-fight is done by parlaying well-rounded ability with a pace and pressure that weaponizes cardio. Because of his cardio and output, Algeo puts himself in a position to win contrary to relying on fight-ending ability, i.e. Marlon Vera’s gameplan. While putting himself in a position, he has lost decisions and this is ultimately rooted in developing grappling, meaning, he has given up takedowns and has had to defend legitimate submission attempts once on the mat causing him to lose close fights. This issue is a particular concern when fighting someone as dangerous as TJ Brown is on the mat, however, Algeo has improved his takedown defense fight over the fight, and while he is certainly far from an elite wrestler, he is someone who can stuff takedowns and get up off the mat if indeed taken there. If kept off the mat, Algeo’s ability to land at a constant and frequent rate gives him a viable chance to not only win here in this spot but begin a climb to fighting for ranked contention.

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As stated, TJ Brown is a very dangerous opponent to contend with on the mat. Having earned 10 of his 17 professional wins by submission, Brown is more than comfortable on the mat, and most importantly, equally comfortable being in top or bottom position. This interest is important given Brown’s offensive wrestling is good but not elite of the elite — 56% success rate.

Knowing his danger on the mat, the question arises why many opponents have taken him there, and the answer to that is due to the style of fighting Brown uses on the feet. Meaning, Brown, who has impressive size and athletism, throws strikes with ill intentions and is more than willing to overextend on a right hand or throw a flying knee that leaves him off balance because he is more than willing to get taken to the mat from a defensive perspective, where he then can work his way to a submission finish. This freedom to throw every shot with max damage intention makes Brown extremely dangerous. While this is the case, if his opponent has comfort with evading threatening shots and remains standing, then a more technical opponent can land strikes cleanly against the less-than-superb defensive striker in Brown, and Algeo is just that type of opponent, thus making him equally as threatening opponent for Brown as Brown is for him.

Prediction

Both Brown and Algeo deserve a ton of respect and admiration for being very challenging, underrated fighters in the UFC. What makes each so interesting is the difference in styles, and while Brown may have the ability to find the finish, I believe the style of fight plays into Algeo’s favor far more than Brown. I believe this to be the case because of the improvement Algeo has had with his defensive grappling coupled with the fact he has the technical striking to nullify the power-pressure Brown uses to overwhelm fighters. Lastly, Algeo’s last fight, a loss, was to an opponent who presents the same style as Brown, and because of this, he can enter this fight with the knowledge and experience needed to pass the recently failed test. So, I am confidently taking Algeo here, and while he can land a variety of clean strikes to eventually find a late-round finish, the price of -160 makes it affordable to bet him straight in this matchup.

Pick: Algeo to win (-185)

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On top of this, it will be almost an entire year since Royval last saw competition, having been sidelined by injury in 2022. A win for him would not only be a step in the right direction divisionally but also a personal victory having overcome the layoff.

Betting Odds

With his time away, Royval will come in as the underdog. Those willing to put down $100 on the American look to earn back a profit of $156 if he wins.

• Brandon Royval: +156
• Matheus Nicolau: -200

Fight Breakdown

Nicolau was originally known for his black belt-level jiu-jitsu. He is technical and smothering on top with a sharp fundamentals-driven game. Many of his takedowns will land him inside the closed guard of his opponent, at which point he likes to bare down a lot of weight on the neck with the “can-opener” a move in which he grabs the back of the neck and stacks them, opening the legs. His hip pressure and height keep the guard open as he works to ground and pound and pass, but he does not rush anything. On the bottom, he likes deep half-guard because he can transition onto a leg and create a scramble to submit or sweep, and regardless of whether he can get them, his constant work makes him difficult to control and get any real damage off.

Although this is still his bread and butter, he has of late become known for his striking and knockout power. He is a patient fighter given the space but can up the work rate if he has to. In general, look for him to circle the cage and counter, but when he presses, his gazelle hook on the left side is his best weapon. He throws it in a similar fashion to former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, where he double steps, first low into a coked stance and then through with the left reaching. He will look to land the same left hook as he circles people onto it as more of a check hook as well and then mix in the right overhand into a body lock takedown when his opponent bites on the left.

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Where Nicolau uses patience and textbook fundamentals, Royval is a scrappy wild card. In some sense, he can be seen as a technical brawler, where he incites chaotic exchanges, but lands snappy, wide hooks from angles unseen and unexpected by his opponents. Likewise, on the ground, he is in constant motion, rolling for legs, snapping onto front chokes, and scrambling to the back, and he is so confident in his ability to do so that standing up his kicking game is thrown freely. Royval in terms of striking should have an advantage in range with his longer-range boxing, and his ability to mix it with his kicks, he loves the left high kick to left cross and right hook and because he starts these combinations an extra beat away he could get Nicolau reacting on the back foot. He just has to be careful he does move forward into that left hook coming over his lead as a southpaw. In terms of straight power, it goes to Nicolau but the durability of Royval is something to behold.

I do think that on paper the fight should be Nicolau’s on the mat but Royval has a history of making great grapplers work way harder than they should, and his ability to jump on submissions is dangerous. If Nicolau takes Royval down or knocks him down, it may actually be smarter to settle in the guard and establish control. From here he does have to worry about the high guard and Royval is very sneaky with how he gets one leg across the face and isolates an arm if it’s posting, but the moment Niclau gives space to pass is when Royval is scrambling.

Prediction and Betting Guide

If these two were both active I believe you could make a good argument that this is a pick ’em fight. Nicolau is on the better win streak, but Royval has faced more consistent top competition. For as technically brilliant as Nicolau is, Royval has shown his ability to creatively adapt to better fighters on paper and solve those problems. However, because Royval does need to make those reactions, and has been out for a solid year including an injury I can see Nicolau taking advantage of some rusty decision-making early and setting the pace for the fight. Although he often returns it, Royval is hittable and Nicolau is a dangerous person to be hit by with that left especially.

Pick: Matheus Nicolau to win (-200)

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