His opponent, Gerald Meerschaert (35-15; 10-7 in the UFC), is excited to stunt the hype around Pyfer and showcase there are levels to the fight game.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

Joe Pyfer is a -200 favorite over Gerald Meerschaert.

• Joe Pyfer: -200 (MyBookie)
• Gerald Meerschaert: +154 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

“Be Joe Pyfer!” (Dana White) was used in the context of a DWCS night, where Dana White was quite frustrated with performances up until Joe Pyfer went out and landed a thunderous KO in round 2 that started with a left hook and ended with ground and pound strikes. While a KO finish is by no means abnormal for the fight game, particularly on DWCS, the notion of the right place, right time, greatly aided Joe Pyfer in getting media buzz around his performance and he capitalized on this buzz with another dominating performance in his first UFC fight.

Beyond hype alone, Joe Pyfer does have some serious skills, most notably his immense power. Additionally, Pyfer, training closely with the elite grappling welterweight, Sean Brady, is becoming far more comfortable on the mat. This comfort is far more rooted when he can dictate the grappling exchanges, as his massive strength and frame are far more suited to excel in the top position compared to being fluid and slick on the mat from his back. This lack of fluidity is also seen with his striking, as he is by no means a sexy sports car, instead, he strikes like a Ford F-150 would strike, that is, throw powerful blows, bypassing the need to be quick or fluid.

Lacking the ability to be fluid is not a concern for Gerald Meerschaert when it comes to grappling, as he is known for having a plethora of dangerous submissions that can be thrown up from any position. This ability allows Meerschaert to be more than comfortable with being taken down to the mat, as he will happily accept the danger of facing heavy ground and pound at the prospect of finding an angle, shifting his hips, and finding a submission finish – 27 of his 35 professional wins have come via submission.

The issue Meerschaert has faced is when he squares off against fighters who have power, comfort on the feet, and an ability to keep the fight standing if they so choose. The latter issue is a concern, as a grappler who struggles to secure a takedown – 37% TD accuracy – is one that relies too much on his opponent’s willingness to prompt a takedown shot. Because of this issue, Meerschaert is often forced to strike for a vast majority of the fight, and albeit his chin is far better than its reputation given he has only been KO’d 3 times as a professional, the inability to avoid thumping strikes often gets him down on the rounds, in turn, limits his path to victory. While hyper-critical, particularly for a fighter who has had to face many dangerous middleweight contenders over the years and one who has stuffed many prospect’s hopes, it is a concern, particularly in a fight where he faces someone as physically imposing as Joe Pyfer.

Prediction

This fight should not reach the judges’ scorecards. Pyfer, standing orthodox, facing Meerschaert, who predominately stands southpaw, will have a massive opening to find the mark with his powerful right hand. If he lands cleanly, I expect it to rock Meerschaert to the point it finishes him in one blow or will be TKO’d soon after.

But, if indeed Pyfer lands a right hand, and overly rushes to the mat, then I would not be shocked to see Meerschaert regather himself like the veteran he is, and then, find a submission from his back.

But, the likelihood of submitting someone as physically strong as Pyfer and someone who trains with one of the best submission artists and grapplers in the entire UFC in Sean Brady is far less likely than it is for Pyfer to land the right hand and work his way to a KO finish.

Because of this, I am electing to pick Pyfer here in this matchup, and him by KO at a -110 price is a very advantageous line to attack.

Pick: Joe Pyfer to win by knockout (-110)

The post Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer prediction | UFC 287 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Meerschaert, perhaps surprising to some, is riding an impressive three-fight win-streak into this matchup. Meanwhile, Jotko is 4-1 in his last five fights, with his lone loss over that span stemming from the highly touted and number 5 ranked middleweight, Sean Strickland. Both Meerschaert and Jotko are battle-tested veterans who are set up perfectly to secure a ranked opponent with a win over the other. The high-stakes parlayed with an inherent chess match when two veterans of the organization face one another creates a recipe for a highly entertaining and underrated matchup!

Betting Odds

Krzysztof Jotko, having once been a highly ranked fighter, is a relatively mundane -170 favorite over the somewhat surging, Gerald Meerschaert.

• Meerschaert: +150
• Jotko: -170

Breakdown

Jotko is a technical striker who relies on quickness and accuracy contrary to power. The benefits associated with electing this style of striking is having the capability to bounce in and out of range while avoiding significant damage resulting from overextending punches and missing the target. Continually, the technical, quick footwork, enables a variety of striking attacks ranging from kicks to straight punches. For Jotko specifically, he does a good job landing body kicks from the southpaw position in addition to landing a straight left hand followed by a right body shot, where he then pivots at an angle to avoid a damaging counterattack. The final benefit of this style, and one that is somewhat under-the-radar for Jotko, is the ability to circle away from takedowns. This ability, coupled with him being a smart veteran understanding of cage positioning, results in him having solid takedown defense, especially for being a non-grappler himself.

Although the benefits of electing to implement this style contrary to focusing on power and damage are sizable, the main consequence is the lack of power-threat allows the opponent to implement their own offensive game without fear of wearing a significant counterstrike. This consequence has resulted in Jotko being finished in the later rounds of fights – when footwork and quickness innately depletes – and/or losing fights by close decision.

Where Jotko uses sound techniques on the feet to negate threats, Meerschaert uses elite ground techniques to finish fights. Of his 34 wins, an impressive 26 have come via submission – a majority by a Rear-Naked Choke, but several others by differing tactics which illustrates an onslaught of skills to finish the fight on the mat. The historical track record of finishing fights via a large arsenal of submission attacks results in the conclusion that if it gets to the mat, Meerschaert has the knowledge and skills necessary to finish the fight once there.

The issue, and rationale with him being a near win-one, lose-one type of fighter, is the striking of Meerschaert is far from elite. Standing from a predominate south-paw position, Meerschaert has had trouble defending against the straight righthand – most notably Chimaev landing a one-punch KO. Beyond this singular issue, he struggles with finding success on the feet from an offensive end, both in terms of landing in combination along with landing with power. This lackluster striking correlates to him finding trouble, at times, securing a takedown. So, in this matchup facing a movement striker in Jotko, Meerschaert will need to show improvement in cutting angles and landing with some force on the feet to best set up his offensive wrestling. If done successfully, he has the attributes necessary to finish the fight once on the mat.

Prediction

The elementary analysis of this fight is as follows: if the fight stays standing, Jotko will win, and if the fight hits the mat, Meerschaert will win. Diving a bit deeper, Jotko will need to show the ability to utilize his footwork throughout the entire duration of the fight, thus best mitigating the offensive grappling of Meerschaert. Meanwhile, Meerschaert will need to show the ability to cut off the cage and land strikes to open up his wrestling. Ultimately, I am far more inclined to back Jotko’s ability to implement a defensive movement for the entirety of the fight contrary to Meerschaert having success in cutting angles and landing damaging blows. The reasoning for this trust is him having done so against more aggressive strikers, and knowing Meerschaert is subpar on the feet, Jotko will be able to continually plan for defending takedowns compared to worrying about defending offensive strikes. This plan, in conjuncture with his displayed ability to keep the fight off the mat, should result in him having success combating the takedowns which are directly correlated to him securing a win.

Bet: Jotko

The post UFC on ESPN 35: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Krzysztof Jotko prediction, betting odds, preview appeared first on The Body Lock.

With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. After all, is it really technical skills that win fights? Or is looking at Derrick Lewis swangin’ and bangin’ memes before you set foot in the cage?

Today we’re breaking down the Covington vs. Woodley main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.

We got 4 out of 5 winners correct last week (including the split decision for Waterson), marking the most successful run this type of analysis has had yet. What’s that you say? Awful officiating that resulted in Ed Herman getting a submission win in what clearly should have been a round 2 TKO for Mike Rodriguez? Sorry guys, but if the sports bookies don’t care about s#*%ty referees, neither do I.

We’ve also got a new format we’re trying out, so I’m covering three main card fights here and discussing the rest with good friend and MMA analyst Ed Gallo in the video below. If you don’t like it, then say something.

Let’s dive in!

Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

Kevin Holland has gone 6-2 in his UFC tenure, losing only to Thiago Santos and Brandan Allen. “The Trailblazer” has been a middleweight staple for some time now, beating up guys whose names you’d recognize, but aren’t really sure what weight class they compete in. This fight will be his third in 4 months, and he’ll be looking for a third straight finish after starching Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley his last two times out.

Darren Stewart last fought this past August, choking out a dude nicknamed “Coconut Bombz” in the first round. Prior to that, “The Dentist” lost to Bartosz Fabinski by unanimous decision at Cage Warriors 113 in March, when Dana White decided he’d let the European promotion pay two of his fighters with very little name value to headline their card in the middle of a pandemic. Weird flex Cage Warriors, weird flex.

Now if we’re talking in terms of “technical skill” Holland should win this fight, but nicknames play a big role in this one. I was only able to find a couple of photos of Holland smiling online without his mouthguard, allowing me to infer that he doesn’t like to show his teeth much. My guess is he’s not flossing regularly, thus dreading his next dentist appointment and giving Stewart, a dentist in his own right, a massive psychological advantage. If Holland has specific teeth issues or, dare I say, Gingivitis, this will be round 1 for sure.

Darren Stewart via TKO R1

Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos

Ah, Mackenzie Dern. Whether it’s the developed accent, the multiple weight misses, or the pregnancy announcement that sent several delusional admirers into a rage about their missed chance with the multiple time ADCC gold medalist, she has rubbed a lot of MMA fans the wrong way. 1-1 since coming back from her childbearing layoff, she became the first woman in UFC history to finish a fight by any form of leg lock last May when she caught Hannah Cifers in a kneebar.

Randa Markos will be making her first trip to the octagon since losing to Amanda Ribas back in March, the only woman to have defeated Dern. “The Quiet Storm” is clearly a disciple of the marvel movie villain Thanos, as she has alternated wins and losses consistently since 2015, regardless of who her competition may be. The only break in this pattern was when she had a majority draw against Marina Rodriguez in 2018, and even then, that technically keeps the balance.

Y’all know how I feel about alternating wins and losses (see Modafferi vs. Lee last week), and the math says Markos is due for a win here. Storm’s a-comin’, though you probably won’t know when it’s here because it’ll be quiet.

Markos via Split Decision

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

In what can be considered a pivotal matchup at 205 lbs. because any fight is significant when the division is that shallow, Johnny Walker will be taking on Ryan Spann in the third main card fight of the night. Once the light heavyweight division’s rising star, Walker’s goofy antics filled hype-train was swiftly derailed when Corey Anderson managed to beat him down at UFC 244 last November. Although he tried to rebound against Nikita Krylov this past March, the Brazilian couldn’t get it done and is now on the first losing streak of his professional career.

Ryan “Superman” Spann on the other hand is on an 8-fight win streak, with six of those wins coming by way of stoppage. Making the most of his second opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series, Spann hasn’t lost a bout since returning to 205 lbs. back in 2017. Although he hasn’t walked out to Shaquille O’Neil’s 1998 hit classic as many times as I would have preferred,  He’s certainly doing his best to live up to his nickname inside the octagon.

To put it simply, Walker is the equivalent of a gigantic 8 -year-old let loose in the octagon after eating a Halloween-size candy haul. He either gets a crazy KO and gives himself a rib injury in celebration, or gets beaten down by an older kid who holds his composure. Even though Spann’s last win was a split decision over Sam Alvey (oof), I’m pretty sure he has the patience and power to knock Walker out. Lex Luthor, Walker is not.

Ryan Spann via R2 TKO

For the rest of the main card picks, check out the video with me and Fight Site/Bloody Elbow MMA analyst Ed Gallo here:

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