Pereira stunned fans at UFC 281, when he knocked out Adesanya in the fifth round with a vicious left hook, ending the reign of the former champion and handing him his first loss at middleweight in MMA. Adesanya now gets his chance to avenge his defeat and reclaim the title that he held for three years.

Watch Pereira vs. Adesanya and the entire UFC 287 main card live only on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Read on for our staff predictions, picks, and analysis before the UFC 287 rematch this weekend.

Betting Odds

Adesanya will enter UFC 287 as the betting favorite with odds of -135. Pereira represents decent value for those who think he can defeat Adesanya once more.

• Alex Pereira: +106 (MyBookie)
• Israel Adesanya: -135 (MyBookie)

Staff Picks

Braeden Arbour

There is a lot that both of these men can take from the last as well as all of their previous encounters as they look to stand across from one another again. In their first UFC fight, Adesanya was clearly ahead on the scorecards leading into Pereira’s knockout victory so, he should have the confidence knowing he is the more polished fighter.

In his past performances, we have seen Adesanya opt to fight with his back to the cage, to give himself the circular movement, and because as a primary kickboxer, he utilizes the cage best when he is defending takedowns. This is not applicable to someone like Periera, who masterfully forces his opponents to the cage in order to cut off their exit with that left hook. Instead, Adesanya needs to find a way to garner enough respect that Pereira is unable to walk him down so easily. In their previous fight, Periera showed no effect from Adesanya’s feinting until he landed that first solid right hand, at which point Periera started to bite. It’s important for Adesanya to land hard and land early to set that precedent.

Adesanya was able to consistently land the right hand over the top throughout their fight, he threw a left jab but left the hand out there to frame and open the angle for the right. This works especially well because Pereira typically keeps a low guard and the frame stops him from turning through with the left hook too easily.
Pereira

As well as staying off the cage, Adesnaya also needs to adapt further, as Periera presents problems that aren’t present in his past opponents. Pereira stands like a more typical kickboxer, and Adesanya low kicks largely had almost no effect on the easily-checking stance. Instead investing in the body paid off far more often. Pereira will take some confidence in his ability to take Adesanya down after doing so in round two of their last fight, but Adesnaya should take more confidence having controlled Pereira for almost an entire round. Pereira makes some basic mistakes in the grappling department, he looks for trips in inopportune situations, which Adesanya was able to capitalize on occasion. Adesanya does have better clinch grappling, but the urgency with which he actually attacks the takedowns was sometimes lacking and the two ultimately reset. Adesanya was consistently able to get to double under-hooks or a high under-hook and wrist control against the cage, when he does so if he is able to then chain together the takedown more quickly we may see him able to take control of each round much earlier and stay out of danger as he does so.

I believe that standing we will see a very similar fight to the last, Pereira working to cut off the octagon and land tight strikes in close whilst checking low kicks and landing his own. Adesanya will look to land from the outside, slip and weave to open up some stiff counters. In the first fight, the grappling scenarios will disrupt the striking battle, and I think the key here is who initiates first and more often. If Pereira is able to take Adesanya down earlier, that same power carries into his ground and pound and we may see something new, on the flip, Adesanya can wear down Pereira further lessening the threat of that power in the latter rounds. I do think that Adesanya has a fairly definitive advantage here or is at least starting many steps ahead in their camp preparation and will ultimately win.

Pick: Israel Adesanya to win

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Michael Pounders

The rematch, or more accurately the tetralogy, is coming Saturday night. Alex “Poatan” Pereira, current middleweight champion in the UFC, will take on Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya for the 4th time in their professional careers. Currently, Pereira is 3-0 against Izzy, with two wins in kickboxing and one last November for the middleweight strap in the UFC.

Pereira is, unsurprisingly given his kickboxing background, a highly skilled and dangerous kickboxer. His size is significant for the middleweight division; Pereira can go eye-to-eye with many light heavyweights and even some heavyweights. He uses his massive size to keep range and punish opponents with thudding power. Typically, Pereira fights from an orthodox stance with tall form and low hands. He is bouncy on the feet and explodes effortlessly in and out of range. Despite his size and power, Pereira is able to push a respectable pace, landing 5.2 significant strikes per minute. While he is primarily a counter striker, Pereira still lands volume with consistency. His typical strategy is to allow opponents to strike first, few are able to land on him cleanly, and then capitalize on even the smallest opening. In their last fight, Pereira attempted 5 fewer strikes than Adesanya but landed 5 more. The edge in strikes landed is minimal, likely insignificant, but it proved that Pereira could hang with one of the best strikers in the UFC. Beyond his explosive movement and under-appreciated volume, Pereira is most known for his power. He hits hard! The result is that simple but the execution is complex. Pereira is a master at timing the right shot, at the right time, and landing it in the right spot. Whether it is a knee up the middle, a heavy kick, or that famous hook, Pereira can land a knockout blow from seemingly any position. In their last fight, while many had Adesanya winning the previous rounds before the 5th round finish, Pereira was keeping the fight close by regularly landing the more impactful blows. Now that he is the champ and has proven to himself and many others that he can beat Adesanya in an octagon, look for him to be more aggressive in their tetralogy.

Adesanya is well-known as one of the most talented strikers on the UFC roster because of his ability to hit and not get hit in return. He has incredible striking speed, both with his hands and kicks, and his precision is well-addressed by many pundits and Adesanya himself. Just like his opponent, “The Last Style Bender” is a master at landing the right shot, at the right time, and landing it in the right spot. Even though he does not match up with Pereira physically and does not have as much jaw-dropping power, Adesanya is completely capable of turning the lights out on an opponent with a one hitter quitter. This is because he generates power from a wide base, times his shots when his opponents are most vulnerable, and lands on the button more often than not. His striking is truly special. Interestingly, in his last fight against Pereira, Adesanya looked like the fighter we’ve grown to expect each time he fights, until he didn’t. Adesanya was striking with speed and precision, landing what he wanted when he wanted, and rarely getting hit cleanly himself. Then, as the fight progressed, Pereira started to cut the cage off and make Adesanya fight off his back foot. Getting trapped against the cage ended up being the undoing for Izzy. In the 5th round, Pereira cut the cage, trapped Izzy, and teed off for an emphatic finish. Interestingly, or concerningly, Izzy was able to circle off the cage for the first 20 minutes of the fight. Then, inexplicably, when Pereira cut the cage in the 5th, Izzy shelled up, stopped moving, and eventually was knocked out. I’ve seen that highlight countless times since the fight and still can’t explain why Izzy didn’t move his feet. He wasn’t gassed out, Pereira didn’t cut the cage in a different way than in the first 20 minutes, and Izzy had plenty of room to move. The only explanation I can give is that Izzy was more hurt before the knockout then he seemed and was stunned at the worst possible time. He needs to stay mobile and evasive in this fight on Saturday night.

Sometimes a bet seems so clear that it brings up hesitation; that is the case in Pereira vs Adesanya. Pereira is 3-0 against Adesanya, was in a close fight despite landing what is being discussed as a highlight reel comeback knockout, and is still an underdog. I expect Pereira to be more aggressive in this fight now that he’s proven to himself he can finish Izzy in the cage. Further, given Pereira’s size and head coach- Glover Teixeira, a grappling mater, I don’t expect Adesanya to be able to land takedowns in this fight. That means we’ll get another high-level kickboxing match. A matchup that has proven Pereira to be successful in 3 times in a row. I’ll gladly take underdog money on the champ and wouldn’t be surprised by another finish.

Best Bet: Alex Pereira to win (+135)

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Joe Pounders

Israel Adesanya is one of the most intelligent fighters to have graced the octagon. His fight intelligence and mental fortitude are an all-time test as he is now 0-3 professionally against Alex Pereira. While having no wins against his rival could be demoralizing, it is far more likely it frustrates Adesanya given he has been quite close to securing victories on multiple occasions, with the lone MMA bout being one where Adesanya was winning the vast majority of the fight — he won’s rounds 1, 3, and 4. But, winning the vast majority of the fight is not the same as getting one’s hand raised at the end, and this puzzle of Pereira is one that the cerebral Last Stylebender has failed at solving.

Leading up to the UFC rematch, it is rumored that Adesanya will incorporate offensive wrestling into the fight game plan against Pereira. On the positive, Adesanya trains at a very solid gym and is part of an Australian/New Zealand team that proved to make Volkanovski a tough grappling test for Israel Makhachev, so, it seems to reason his team can make Adesanya into an effective offensive wrestler – he is already an underrated defensive wrestler. But, on the negative, is that Pereira is a very difficult non-grappler to take down, particularly when you parlay the fact he is the largest middleweight on the roster with the understanding he trains with an elite grappler, Glover Texiera, on a daily basis. So, it will be interesting to see come Saturday night if Adesanya is able to effectively wrestle Pereira. Regardless, he proved in his last fight he has the MMA skills to win rounds on the feet and if he can avoid the massive power for the entirety of the fight and not freeze against the cage, then he can take back his belt and finally beat his fight rival.

Losing rounds is not a concern of Alex Pereira, particularly when the fight is for a full 25 minutes. This is because he is likely the most powerful 185’er and perhaps most importantly, has power through a variety of unique attacks. This ability to pose a striking threat against what was considered to be the best striker in the UFC in Adesanya proves that Pereira is truly world-class on the feet. And, as stated prior, keeping the fight standing is an ability he possesses given his large frame, sizeable strength, and constant grappling improvement coming at the coaching of future UFC HOF’er, Glover Texiera.

Using power to win this fight is the likely game plan of Pereira, but it would not surprise me if he too looks to offensively wrestle his way to win rounds in this fight. Similarly to Adesanya, he does not need to offensively wrestle, but will be an additive tool for his opponent to contend with, and, if Adesanya concerns himself with defending a takedown, then he opens himself up to potentially getting caught on the feet, and knowing Pereira has world-class power, this may prove to be a fatal mistake in the favor of the now middleweight champion, Alex Pereira.

Many people believe Adesanya will alter his game plan, implement wrestling, and win via a grind ’em-out style fight. While I believe Adesanya has the technical skills to get Pereira to the mat, the strength difference between him and Pereira is sizeable enough to where Pereira should be able to get up quite easily. Even though the case, I do believe making Pereira grapple is the smart move given cardio is the differential Adesanya will likely exploit knowing Pereira cuts a considerable amount of weight and the more tiring the fight, the better it is for him. Because of the cardio advantage, the fact he was up 3 rounds to 1 last fight, and belief in his intellect with exacerbating the largest positive differential given to him, I am trusting and backing Adesanya here in this fight.

Pick: Israel Adesanya to win

The post Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya staff predictions | UFC 287 appeared first on The Body Lock.

That being said, Masvidal has been open about potential retirement if this fight does not go his way, so Burns will be looking to retire the Miami native in his hometown.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

Gilbert Burns who is coming off of a stunning submission of Neil Magny will walk into the cage as a -454 favorite.

• Jorge Masvidal: +316 (MyBookie)
• Gilbert Burns: -454 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Gilbert Burns has the luxury of having a style with which he can take a few cues from Masvidal’s last fight. Like Colby Covington who defeated Masvidal at UFC 272, Burns depends on a high-paced grappling heavy gameplan. While his overall wrestling may not be as educated as Covington’s, Burns arguably has a more dangerous and powerful striking game and a more dangerous submission repertoire.

However, at the end of the day, time spent in a kickboxing match with Masvidal is time for Masvidal to set traps and make use of them over the fight if Burns is unable to hit the mark. Burns should look to use his level changes to open up his striking opportunities and avoid a pure striking exchange. One of the craftiest tactics used by Burns is a long stretching level change in which he essentially drops into a lunge, hooks one leg, and comes up to drive into the cage. Once he established this, the same movement, lunging forward, opens up his right cross or overhand as his opponent’s arms drop for the takedown, it’s setups like these that can freeze a better pure striker like Masvidal.

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When Burns does commit to the stretching takedown, he often does not land the initial shot but instead gets ahold of the leg and chain wrestles his way into securing the second attempt. On top, very few have the Brazilain Jiu Jitsu prowess of Burns, who masterfully flattens his opponents and passed guards. He will look to attack arm triangles on Masvidal if Masvidal lays flat, but as soon as Masvidal tries to scramble or turn to get to his feet, is when Burns will then use the head on the outside of the arm to swivel and instead take the back. It’s his ability to move from flattened-out submissions to the back and vice versa that can drown his opponents. Especially someone like Mavidal who needs to create space, and is dynamic enough to keep the scrambles going.

For Masvidal he has to try to work on his feet, stay on his feet and get back to his feet. He is supremely tricky and crafty as a veteran but he is in a tricky position. We have seen Masvidal masterfully utilize the cage to peel off opponents taking the back and to stay upright, but unless he can punish Burns for doing so the clock is only running out on him. Masvidal may be one of the very best at hitting short elbows and knees inside, at an unusually tight distance, and if Burns takes even a moment to breathe, these need to be there.

At the range, Masvidal is very good at setting up power shots with feints and twitching movement. However, his signature, cross-step sprint may be to big a risk against Burns who, if timed right could easily level change underneath the barrage with his particular style of takedowns. Instead. if Masvidal can get Burns to bite on his potential bursts, knees down the pipe could be a dangerous weapon.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I do see a lot of similarities in this fight as Masvidal vs. Covington, with an added submission and power threat from Burns. Masvidal has the tools to shake things up in opportune moments, especially in clinch breaks, if there are rest positions against the cage, or if Burns finds himself getting desperate at any point, but in general, the ability to control the fight is in Burns’s corner.

Over three rounds, I do think that Burns can put Masvidal on the fence and work him enough to eventually get him to the mat if unable on the initial attempts, and then ride the fight from there.

While I think the submission attempts will be there, the experience of Masvidal and the five-round experience will make him very difficult to stop in three rounds, so a pick-by decision may be a smart move.

Picks: Gilbert Burns to win (-454) and by decision (+160)

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Christian “CeeRod” Rodriguez also won a unanimous decision on DWCS but was not awarded a contract. Instead, he fought once more at NAFC, where he got a first-round submission. Then, Rodriguez made his UFC debut in 2022 where he lost a unanimous decision to the surging JSP. He rebounded back with another first-round submission in October of last year.

Betting Odds

Rosas Jr opened just south of a 2:1 favorite but has steadily grown throughout the week.

• Rosas Jr: -225 (MyBookie)
• Rodriguez: +185 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Rosas Jr is a polarizing figure in the UFC. He is talented, dangerous, and has the physical attributes coupled with a high level of skill that make him a prospect who should shoot up the rankings. However, he is an 18-year-old kid, he is arrogant – he said recently that he could beat Aljo and Yan today – and his hyper-aggressive ground game can put him in dangerous positions at times. His youth, vocal personality, and skills put him as the main card opener in only his second UFC fight.

But, his opponent in this fight is no slouch and Rosas Jr will need to mind his Ps and Qs if he hopes to keep his perfect record. Typically, Rosas Jr looks to wrestle immediately in a fight. His size, 5-foot-9, and length provide him a safe range when he’s forced to strike on the feet but his striking is limited beyond a long reach.

He times takedowns well, often coming off of his own feint or as a counter shot after slipping or dipping off of an opponent’s strike. His wrestling is polished, his physicality is apparent, and his ability to get the fight down versus just against the cage is a significant advantage.

Once on the mat, Rosas Jr personifies the teachings at his gym: 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu. 10th Planet regularly turns out hyper-aggressive BJJ fighters who hunt relentlessly for submission wins. They’re willing to take risks on the mat, sacrifice position for submission, and often find the finish. Rosas Jr embodies that strategy and applies it in his fights. What makes him such an impressive prospect, aside from his age, is that he is a rare fighter who has the wrestling to get an opponent down where he can use that dangerous jiu-jitsu to end a fight quickly.

Rodriguez is aggressive himself. He has a pressure-focused striking attack with a solid right hand. He’s willing to throw wide hooks and heavy overhand strikes, looking for the knockdown or knockout, because, if he overextends, he’ll happily follow his momentum forward to clinch or secure a takedown. Similarly, if an opponent is able to time his wild striking and take Rodriguez down, he’s happy playing off of his back. He has good sweeps and an ability to stay calm against top heavy wrestlers while he looks to reverse position.

Against Pearce, an impressive wrestler who is also a dangerous finisher on the mat, Rodriguez showed poise and patience while he tried to work from his back. Although, in that fight, Rodriguez was unable to find an opening and he was controlled for 11 of the 15 minutes of the fight. Conversely, in his last fight, Rodriguez was taken down again but was able to find an opening, reverse position, and secure his own submission finish. Comfort from his back is a blessing and a curse. Against a lesser grappler, Rodriguez can find success even from poor position. But, against a superior grappler, Rodriguez can be stuck for long periods of the bout.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Because of his arrogance and bold predictions, Rosas Jr is a controversial fighter: some fans love him and others can’t wait for him to lose. So, many in the MMA community are planting their flag on the dog in this fight. I suspect that comes from the angle that Rodriguez is the first real test for Rosas Jr and that Rosas Jr is easy to root against.

While I expect to fade him in the future, I don’t think this is the spot.

Yes, Rosas Jr is green, yes he can make mistakes in the cage, and yes Rodriguez is a step up in competition. But, Rosas Jr is the much better wrestler, the more slick submission ace, and Rodriguez is not much more experienced than Rosas Jr.

Because both Rosas Jr and Rodriguez are both aggressive fighters, I lean Rosas Jr ITD or under 2.5 rounds. However, Rosas Jr has shown a willingness to win minutes in fights where his opponent is tough and Rodriguez has never been finished. So, I prefer Rosas Jr in parlays as a primary bet since the method is less predictive in this fight.

Best Bets: Rosas Jr to win (-225) in parlays and Rosas Jr to win inside the distance (+120)

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His next fight will be a slight drop in competition, going from contenders to #14 ranked Chris Curtis, still one spot above Gastelum at #15. Curtis is coming off of a KO victory over Joaquin Buckley in December and is 4-1 in the UFC since signing with the promotion.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

Oddsmakers have swayed back and forth with the pair initially opening up with both negative odds each. However, Gastelum has since shifted as the favorite despite his losing streak.

• Kelvin Gastelum: -133 (MyBookie)
• Chris Curtis: +105 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

This matchup benefits Gatelum’s style far more than any of his fights in recent memory. In general, Gastelum is an experienced wrestler, who dived head first into his boxing when making the switch to MMA, and as time went on he developed, slick footwork, power, and smooth hands, as well as an iron chin. For the most part, his best success in the UFC has come by way of his fast boxing skills, and moving from welterweight to middleweight, speed became is most prominent attribute against larger opponents. However, being a short fighter saw him struggle against good rangy kickboxers like Israel Adesanya and Darren Till, and similarly to the blitzing karate style of Whittaker, that allowed no inward battle in which Gatelum could box. Chris Curtis, himself is a boxer and will be there looking to enter and engage in the pocket much more readily than most opponents.

That being said, while this benefits Gastelum more than those able to avoid his boxing, it’s an extremely tough matchup as both men are razor-sharp boxers.

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Chris Curtis is a Southpaw with a short stance. He keeps a tight guard on his left side and uses his right hand to poke and prod with his jab or hand fight. As a southpaw, he usually looks to hand fight to open up his left and power hand to lead his combinations, but Gastelum is also a southpaw so this may shake up his usual entries. Look for him to pressure Gastelum back towards the cage so that he can land body shots as Gastelum tries to circle out. He is also always looking to bait out the right hand so that he can slip and counter with a left uppercut to the right hook.

Gastelum is a bit lighter on his feet with more in and out and springy movement. His left cross is lightning, and a sharp right hook is often added to the tip of his combinations to find the chin as he exits. He will throw a lazy right jab to set up a hop left cross, and that same movement can hide his potential double-leg attempts. While we may see a competitive boxing match between these two, it’s the added dimension of the takedowns that make Gastelum the more complete mixed martial artist. He does have better variety with his dance control, and Chris Curtis has shown frustration when he is unable to cut off the cage and is instead willing to chase. If Gastelum can box and then break that gap to get away, watch for Curtis to march forward and find Gastelum on his hips. Gastelum is extremely powerful when he gets in deep as he can elevate and turn the corner on takedowns with a lot of power for his size. He is also great at riding the back, and has a grip difficult to break, but does so on his own terms and often is the one landing cleaner on clinch breaks.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I see a compelling striking contest, done mostly with boxing weapons and skills, but Gastelum’s ability to get to and control range will force Curtis to at times work overzealously trying to find him at which point, Gastelum can find his wrestling opportunities. If he comes out looking for the takedown without trying to set it up, Curtis has too good takedown defense to get caught easily by the obvious. I think he will get Curtis settled at the boxing range and then mix things up to get the victory.

Pick: Kelvin Gastelum to win (-133)

The post Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Curtis prediction | UFC 287 appeared first on The Body Lock.

His opponent, Gerald Meerschaert (35-15; 10-7 in the UFC), is excited to stunt the hype around Pyfer and showcase there are levels to the fight game.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

Joe Pyfer is a -200 favorite over Gerald Meerschaert.

• Joe Pyfer: -200 (MyBookie)
• Gerald Meerschaert: +154 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

“Be Joe Pyfer!” (Dana White) was used in the context of a DWCS night, where Dana White was quite frustrated with performances up until Joe Pyfer went out and landed a thunderous KO in round 2 that started with a left hook and ended with ground and pound strikes. While a KO finish is by no means abnormal for the fight game, particularly on DWCS, the notion of the right place, right time, greatly aided Joe Pyfer in getting media buzz around his performance and he capitalized on this buzz with another dominating performance in his first UFC fight.

Beyond hype alone, Joe Pyfer does have some serious skills, most notably his immense power. Additionally, Pyfer, training closely with the elite grappling welterweight, Sean Brady, is becoming far more comfortable on the mat. This comfort is far more rooted when he can dictate the grappling exchanges, as his massive strength and frame are far more suited to excel in the top position compared to being fluid and slick on the mat from his back. This lack of fluidity is also seen with his striking, as he is by no means a sexy sports car, instead, he strikes like a Ford F-150 would strike, that is, throw powerful blows, bypassing the need to be quick or fluid.

Lacking the ability to be fluid is not a concern for Gerald Meerschaert when it comes to grappling, as he is known for having a plethora of dangerous submissions that can be thrown up from any position. This ability allows Meerschaert to be more than comfortable with being taken down to the mat, as he will happily accept the danger of facing heavy ground and pound at the prospect of finding an angle, shifting his hips, and finding a submission finish – 27 of his 35 professional wins have come via submission.

The issue Meerschaert has faced is when he squares off against fighters who have power, comfort on the feet, and an ability to keep the fight standing if they so choose. The latter issue is a concern, as a grappler who struggles to secure a takedown – 37% TD accuracy – is one that relies too much on his opponent’s willingness to prompt a takedown shot. Because of this issue, Meerschaert is often forced to strike for a vast majority of the fight, and albeit his chin is far better than its reputation given he has only been KO’d 3 times as a professional, the inability to avoid thumping strikes often gets him down on the rounds, in turn, limits his path to victory. While hyper-critical, particularly for a fighter who has had to face many dangerous middleweight contenders over the years and one who has stuffed many prospect’s hopes, it is a concern, particularly in a fight where he faces someone as physically imposing as Joe Pyfer.

Prediction

This fight should not reach the judges’ scorecards. Pyfer, standing orthodox, facing Meerschaert, who predominately stands southpaw, will have a massive opening to find the mark with his powerful right hand. If he lands cleanly, I expect it to rock Meerschaert to the point it finishes him in one blow or will be TKO’d soon after.

But, if indeed Pyfer lands a right hand, and overly rushes to the mat, then I would not be shocked to see Meerschaert regather himself like the veteran he is, and then, find a submission from his back.

But, the likelihood of submitting someone as physically strong as Pyfer and someone who trains with one of the best submission artists and grapplers in the entire UFC in Sean Brady is far less likely than it is for Pyfer to land the right hand and work his way to a KO finish.

Because of this, I am electing to pick Pyfer here in this matchup, and him by KO at a -110 price is a very advantageous line to attack.

Pick: Joe Pyfer to win by knockout (-110)

The post Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer prediction | UFC 287 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia, 30, has a 13-5 professional record with 10 knockout wins; but, in the UFC, Garcia is 2-2. His last three fights have ended via knockout.

Watch the UFC 287 main card this Saturday night live on ESPN+ PPV. Order here.

Betting Odds

• Shayilan Nuerdanbieke: -208 (MyBookie)
• Steve Garcia Jr: +159 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Nuerdanbieke is a well-rounded fighter but an overhyped prospect with a unique record. On paper, a 28-year-old fighter with a 39-10 record either looks like a real-deal talent or a typo in the record books. However, in Nuedanbieke’s case, that record is one simple thing: padded.

Prior to the UFC, Nuerdanbieke fought around the Asian circuit racking up quick finish wins with quick turnarounds for fights. But, in the UFC, he’s struggled to find similar success.

“Wolverine” is a solid but not great wrestler who looks to clinch, grind against the cage, and drag opponents down to the mat. He doesn’t use trips well against the cage, like many clinch fighters; instead, he drives his head and shoulders into his opponent and looks to drop his hips for the takedown. After grinding an opponent down with this style, which typically requires an advantage in strength, if Nuerdanbieke lands on top, he smothers well and is difficult to detach from once he gets position. He tends to choose position over finish while racking up control time in the clinch or on the mat. His wrestling is designed to hold, smother, and exhaust opponents.

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Outside of his last knockout win, which was stepped in controversy and caused James Krause to be blacklisted from the UFC, Nuerdanbieke’s grinding style resulted in him racking up 7.5 minutes of control time in back-to-back fights en route to decision wins. Because his striking is basic and his striking defense is porous, we can expect him to follow a similar game plan to those two fights once again.

Garcia is a tough bulldog in the cage who uses his grit and willpower to overcome his lack of athleticism and technique. Garcia is almost exclusively a boxer who lives on his front foot and keeps the pressure up for the duration of the fight. He tends to rush into range, forgoing the typical jab to create combinations, as he looks for wide and powerful hooks. His striking is more “fistfight” than “technical boxing” but it has proven successful against fighters incapable of countering the predictable pressure. Against fighters with a footwork or hand speed, Garcia can often get caught chasing or overextending.

Most important, in this fight, will likely be Garcia’s takedown defense, which currently sits at 100%. That number, though, is deceptive. He stuffed seven takedowns in his debut; but, Garcia has not faced a fighter who has shot more than 1 takedown in 15 minutes since then. His pressure style might back up the wrestler early, but one well timed shot when Garcia overextends will likely end with his shorts on the canvas.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Garcia is 2-2 in the UFC and his only wins have come against a fighter who went 0-3 in the UFC before getting cut and against the 23-year-old Chase Hooper who is 3-3 in the UFC himself. Looking at the caliber of components is only a small variable in handicapping fights; but, in this fight, the caliber of opponents for Garcia, and lack of quality wins, illustrate his limitations as a fighter.

Nuerdanbieke is flawed, overhyped, often overpriced, and on a path toward a profitable fade in the right matchup. But, this is not the right matchup. This fight comes down to which man can implement their pressure.

If Nuerdanbieke can get the first takedown, he should be able to rinse and repeat for 15 minutes. If Garcia can stuff takedowns and ramp up 100+ strike attempts, he might be able to overwhelm Nuerdanbieke.

Nuerdanbieke’s path is more likely to happen; and, even though he struggles defensively, Nuerdanbieke’s counterstriking should find success against the overaggressive Garcia as well. I don’t like Nuerdanbieke as a parlay piece because this fight is more of a fade of Garcia than a bet on Nuedanbieke.

Instead, I’ll bank on Nuerdanbieke’s lack of finishing ability and Garcia’s toughness for two bets.

Best Bets: Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) and Nuerdanbieke by Decision +300

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