The promotion heads back to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card with Fiziev and Gamrot set to battle for five rounds.

Before the event kicks off this weekend, make sure to catch up on the latest betting odds, as well as our detailed fight breakdowns, predictions, and betting tips for this fight and all other fight predictions here.

• How to watch: Watch every fight live this weekend on ESPN+
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Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev will enter this main event as the betting favorite with odds of -155 up against Mateusz Gamrot, who can be found as a slight underdog at +125.

• Mateusz Gamrot: +125 (BetUS)
• Rafael Fiziev: -155 (BetUS)

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Fiziev vs Gamrot predictions

Braeden Arbour

This is a very high level of MMA being showcased this Saturday. Both of these men push a high pace and take risks. Fiziev will obviously look to keep the fight standing and highlight his world-class muay thai, while Gamrot will be looking to mix things up and put Fiziev on the mat early.

Fiziev will have to deny the takedown consistently. He has 90% takedown defense thus far in the octagon, due to a number of factors. Fiziev is powerful and technical in his wrestling defense but even more importantly his management of range and space allow him to largely be in control of the striking dynamic. By extension, he makes it very difficult for his opponent to set any traps in order to capitalize on a takedown or find their timing to level change.

Fiziev is known for his power kicks, preferably for him the rear right kick from the conventional stance. A strike so powerful it garners respect from most opponents and forces them to react dramatically whenever he shows them the look. He does not telegraph the direction, hiding the target, whether the head, ribs or midsection, making it particularly difficult to read or block. This forces his opponents to largely shell up and defend, instead of looking for a counter as often as against others. Fiziev has a tricky combination, entering with the right kick to the switch step through the right cross, setting up a big left hook. Although his strikes are always fast and crisp, he allows himself to wind up on some power punches when he can freeze up his opponent with the threat of the kick or a stance switch.

Yet, while Fiziev’s distance control makes it difficult to time a good takedown, Gamrot rarely needs the perfect shot to enter. Gamrot has a takedown accuracy stat of just 30%, which is massively misleading. He is one of the best chain wrestlers in a division with many high level grapplers, and he will often look to shoot any initial level change just to make contact and then work from there.

Often, you will see Gamrot lull his opponent before going from 0-100, diving for an ankle, changing the angle and chaining on his next attempt to gain control. He will allow his opponents to create space while they scramble to expose the back, or build up another shot with full momentum.

This is why, although Fiziev has good technical anti-wrestling and range control, he will have to consistently be aware because Gamrot will look to shoot at unorthodox and technically inopportune times, knowing that on the third or forth transition in the sequence he can find his control position. Gamrot will take chokes if they are offered but typically specializes in isolating and snatching limbs for joint lock submissions.

This is a very good fight. If odds were even, I do like the chances of Fiziev making it awkward enough to shoot on him, that he finds Gamrot’s chin enough to hurt him badly. However as the underdog, Gamrot is a good value. Fiziev, while looking incredible in all his fights, dominance and wars, has not actually faced the kind of grappler that Gamrot represents. Yes, Fiziev has denied good grapplers, but the submission threat on top of the chain wrestling will be the biggest test so far for the Thai boxing expert.

Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot to win (+121)

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Michael Pounders

Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev, 30, lost a fight-of-the-year caliber match to Gaethje back in March, which brought his UFC record to 6-2. The #6 ranked lightweight is no stranger to fan-friendly fights, often putting on a show whether he wins via spinning wheel kick or loses by majority decision. No matter the outcome, Fiziev’s unique and video-game-like striking often results in violence.

Fiziev is as fast as lightning, as damaging as a jackhammer, and as dynamic as the controversial UFC striking updates. Hyperbole and jokes aside, Fiziev is one of the best Muay Thai strikers in the stacked lightweight division. He typically starts fast, pushing and pressuring forward early in the fight. Fiziev, using pressure, feints, and stance switching, looks to trap his opponent to create a stationary target.

As he’s pressuring and switching stances, Fiziev lands devastating body, head, and back-leg calf kicks. That back-leg calf kick represents how dynamic and athletic he is, few fighters have the speed and flexibility to land that kick with regularity. Once his opponents are trapped or decide to plant their feet, Fiziev really ramps up his volume. He looks for digs to the body, creative kicks to the head, or a simple but powerful 1-2 combination.

Beyond his elite striking, Fiziev is also a highly skilled defensive grappler. He has unique balance and ability to keep it standing, especially against single leg attempts where he can raise his taken leg up and bounce on his grounded leg. Fiziev’s killer body shots also result in natural underhooks which help him stuff take down attempts. Even though Fiziev often has the edge on the feet and many fighters have tried to take him down, he still holds a 90% takedown defense.

Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot, 32, began his career undefeated until he lost a split decision that he arguably won. This resulted in Gamrot often being considered the unsung contender of the division. Then, he fought the surging Arman Tsarukyan in a fight that went 25 insanely hard minutes and included some of the highest-level grappling exchanges and scrambling moments in any fight.

Since then, Gamrot lost a decision and won a controversial split. This has shifted his reputation from the unsung contender to someone who might be overrated. As with most things, I think the middle is more accurate. Gamrot is undeniably an excellent fighter with persistent and high-volume boxing who can weaponize pressure. He is also a strong wrestler and grappler who averages 4.5 takedown attempts per fight. “Gamer” only lands his takedowns at a 31% clip; but, once he gets fighters down, Gamrot is able to hold position well and land effective ground and pound while winning important minutes of rounds.

What Gamrot’s wrestling does that can’t be tracked by statistics is how it opens up his striking. Gamrot will regularly feint takedowns to get his opponents to react to the shot, leaving their chin exposed for Gamrot to land a quick combination. By keeping his opponent guessing, Gamrot is able to win round after round in fights. That coupled with his pressure and resilience often results in him winning close decisions with regularity.

This is a terrible stylistic matchup for Gamrot. Despite Strickland shocking the world by out-striking an elite kickboxer with his basic but persistent boxing; typically, once fighters are at a similarly high level, the more dynamic striker will win the exchanges on the feet.

There is no question that Fiziev’s Matrix-like Muay Thai far exceeds Gamrot’s boxing in terms of dynamism, speed, and damage. Moreover, I feel both Fiziev’s and Gamrot’s cardio tanks have been misrepresented in opposite directions. Fiziev often looks tried in the cage but tends to fight, even in the later rounds of a war, with explosive movements.

This indicates that, despite his outward fatigue, “Ataman” is able to push through the wall and succeed in deep waters. Meanwhile, outside of his stellar fight with Tsarukyan, Gamrot’s cardio has been reliable but not a weapon. He looked understandably slower in round 3 of both of his last fights. While I do expect Gamrot to have the better gas tank, I don’t expect him to be able to weaponize it in this fight.

Finally, I see Gamrot’s wrestling x-factor as a non-factor against the athletic, unbelievably well-balanced, and explosive Fiziev who, despite fighting strong grapplers in Diakiese, Moicano, and RDA, still holds a 90% takedown defense. Fiziev’s body work will serve as a natural underhook and his balance will help him stay upright when Gamrot looks for single leg attempts. In short, I respect Gamrot and think the line in this fight is appropriate; and, while I’m not making a substantial bet, I will be siding with Fiziev.

Best Bet: Fiziev to win (-155)

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Joe Pounders

Rafael Fiziev is one of the most entertaining strikers in the lightweight division, if not the entire UFC. Training out of Tiger Muay Thai, Fiziev has an excellent arsenal of attacks at his disposal, all of which are thrown with lightning speed and thumping power. Perhaps his best striking tool is his ability to find damaging body strikes, whether it be with a left hook that digs to the body or a leg kick thrown with zero telegraph in front. This striking tool will be a pivotal component to implement early on in this fight given his opponent has shown to be susceptible to wearing body strikes, so throwing the best strike against a weak point early will help Fiziev control the direction of the fight as it progresses, a pivotal component to success.

The other critical component of success in this fight is takedown defense. The longer the fight stays standing, the greater Fiziev can separate in a positive manner. The benefit, for him, is that he has impeccable takedown defense. But, if he somehow finds his way to his back whether it be a slip done when kicking or if Gamrot times a perfect takedown, getting up may be a fight-losing struggle.

Taking Fiziev to the mat is the likely gameplan of the impeccable wrestler, Mateusz Gamrot. His wrestling acumen approaches the top of MMA as he successfully wrestled elite of elite wrestlers, Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush (although lost the fight). In those fights, he had a combined 40 takedowns attempted which is an astronomical number but displays his relentless commitment to the grappling attack, and more importantly, the cardio needed to shoot that many takedowns.

In this fight, where Arman and Dariush were perhaps more willing to give up a takedown to create a scramble and/or trusted their ability to get up off the canvas, Fiziev will likely put all effort into stuffing takedowns, so while Gamrot has the track record of success against elite grapplers, he may find it more challenging here than anticipated.

If Gamrot cannot consistently find success wrestling Fiziev, the good thing for him is that he does have powerful striking. And, while some may state powerful striking cannot beat the elite technician that is Rafael Fiziev on the feet, there is a proven pathway to success shown by Justin Gaethje, a power striker in his own right. That blueprint is throwing leg kicks, landing power, and perhaps most importantly, showcasing no fear in standing toe-to-toe against the elite striker of Fiziev. Gamrot has the skills necessary to do the technical techniques Gaethje displayed, and he has shown the quote-on-quote dog in him, so if standing, it should be closer than perhaps expected.

The odds in this fight are spot on. Rafael Fiziev’s elite takedown defense, an electrifying arsenal of strikes, and lessons learned from the Justin Gaethje defeat warrant the slight favorite over a powerful, relentless wrestler of Mateusz Gamrot who holds wins over several dangerous lightweight contenders. So, when odds are this sharp, there is little value on the ML side. Because of this, I am electing to pick rounds prop of o3.5 rounds because Gamrot’s key to victory is by wrestling and depleting the cardio of Fiziev, and for Fiziev, his finishes typically come late in the fight if at all, so o3.5 presents value even at a price of -155.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 rounds (-155)

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The post Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot staff predictions | UFC Vegas 79 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Winning will be no easy task given his opponent, number 6 ranked, Rafael Fiziev (12-1; 6-1 in the UFC), is one of the most electrifying prospects who combines elite striking with an impressive ability to keep the fight standing.

Knowing Fiziev is a striker through and through coupled with the fact Gaethje enjoys a brawl more than just about anyone, the conclusion is that this bout should be a standing affair for however long it lasts, consequently, is a leading candidate for FOTN.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev, riding a 6-fight win streak, is priced as a -238 favorite over Justin Gaethje, who comes back as a +180 underdog.

• Rafael Fiziev: -225 (MyBookie)
• Justin Gaethje: +180 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

The lightweight division is littered with dominant wrestlers. On paper, this fact would be of little concern for Justin Gaethje given his background as a 2-time high school state champion and D1 college wrestler. But, Gaethje has seemingly abandoned his wrestling credentials given his difficulty in this department against the elite of the elite. The consequence of doing so is obviously given he has lost championship-caliber fights to elite grapplers, but, the benefit is him turning into one of the most feared strikers to stand against given he is one of, if not the most, powerful punchers in the division.

Beyond having thunder in his fists, Gaethje uses a quick and snapping leg kick when at range, making him a complete striker given he can have success from distance, and if turned into an in-the-pocket fight, his elite power makes him a probable candidate to get the better of tight exchanges. This skill set makes him far more well-rounded in striking than his bar-like style gets credit for, and, when you add the fact he has KO’d a hyper-quick, kick-centric fighter in the recent past of Edson Barboza, his opponent here needs to recognize the threat that Gaethje is. If not, Gaethje can re-enter the winning circle, likely in fight-ending, thumping fashion.

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Rafael Fiziev is one of the most entertaining strikers in the entire UFC. His speed and precision with the variety of strikes thrown is a thing of beauty, and, he has had moments of matrix-like movements from a defensive perspective. This ability, to have a plethora of elite offensive strikes with a keen awareness to dodge damaging blows from a defensive perspective makes him one of the best strikers in the UFC.

Often, when a striker of Fiziev’s caliber enters the octagon, his opponent seeks to take him to the mat. The issue, for his opponents, is that he has a TD defense of 92% in the UFC, and, as shown in his last fight against the hyper-dangerous grappler of RDA, Fiziev can get up off the mat if somehow taken there. So, having the ability to stay on his feet gives him the advantage in his fights given the elite attributes he possesses in the striking department. The only concern Fiziev has mildly shown in his fights is lacking a significant positive gap in strike output for him compared to his opponent. While this is the case, particularly in a time of bad judging, he does win the striking battle from a visual perspective because he lands with clean, precise power, compared to his opponents landing mildly missed shots on him.

Prediction

When there is a fight between two high-end opponents with similar styles, something unexpected typically happens with regard to how the fight plays out. For this fight, I have complete confidence this bout will indeed be a standing affair, and knowing each opponent has strengths with fighting at range and close in the pocket, I have further confidence this will be a highly entertaining fight from start to finish.

Under the presumption this will be a standing affair, I am electing to back the favorite, Rafael Fiziev, to secure his 7th straight win. While I would not be surprised whatsoever if Gaethje lands one of his massive power shots to secure a victory, I trust the probability of victory is in Fiziev’s favor, as he has the far faster kicks, demonstrated ability to avoid power shots, and, has a plethora of fight-ending attacks that are thrown from a variety of angles that are often not seen, thus lands cleanly. The implied odds state that he has a 69% chance of winning, and given this stylistic matchup is simply perfect for Fiziev, I believe his chances are closer to the 75% range, so, there is 75 cent value in the ML price, as such, I am perfectly okay laying the -225 price tag on him on the ML.

Pick: Fiziev to win (-225)

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Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev will go head-to-head at UFC Vegas 58 this Saturday night at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. It’s a five-round bout that will significantly impact the lightweight rankings considering that dos Anjos is essentially defending his #7 spot in rankings against the #10 ranked Fiziev.

Dos Anjos, a former UFC lightweight champion, returned to lightweight in November 2020 after an eight-fight stint at welterweight. Dos Anjos scored a win against Paul Felder in a bout that earned ‘Fight of the Night’ honors and most recently defeated Renato Moicano by unanimous decision in March this year.

Fiziev steps into this fight after five consecutive wins and four bonuses, including two ‘Fight of the Night’ awards and two ‘Performance of the Night’ awards. He’s now 5-1 in the UFC with recent victories against Brad Riddell, Bobby Green, and Renato Moicano.

Read on for our dos Anjos vs. Fiziev staff predictions, picks, betting odds, and analysis before the UFC Vegas 58 main event bout.

Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev will enter as a sizable betting favorite against the former champion this weekend.

• Rafael dos Anjos: +180 (MyBookie)
• Rafael Fiziev: -220 (MyBookie)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour 

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev is a great clash of styles and an interesting fight between a former champion back on the hunt in his old division and one of the most devastating prospects the division has seen in a while.

First, looking at Dos Anjos – he is a southpaw fighter who typically sticks to the basics in a compact style with a tight guard and heavy strikes. The most dangerous part of his game, other than his tremendous pressure jiu-jitsu, is his explosive leg kicks and his left body kick. Fiziev is usually an orthodox fighter but often switches stance throughout his fights; doing so will make it difficult for Dos Anjos to set up his power strikes but if he can, catching Fiziev on the switch is even better for him. Dos Anjos also has a great left straight, which he throws as he commits his center of balance over his front leg, allowing him to follow through into the cage clinch or immediately sit back to the rear leg to get out of range of the counter. This only really works, however, if his opponent is moving backward because shifting his weight back works in conjunction with his opponent moving away to create the space; it doesn’t allow him to push off the front leg and explode a great distance back. In general, Dos Anjos’ best techniques, his shifting left straight, his body and low kicks, as well as his takedowns, work best when he is pressing forward, especially past the center octagon with his opponent to the cage. This means his style takes detriment if he’s the one getting pushed backward.

Fiziev is far more experienced in pure striking but far less in terms of mixed martial arts. He also strikes best moving forward but also enjoys pressuring for the purpose of countering as opposed to Dos Anjos needing to lead. He has a bit of a tap and return style, as evident from his expertise in Muay Thai, where he looks to take a shot on the arms and immediately return a combination or kick. Although he keeps his guard high, he often leans back and drops the front hand in almost a half shoulder roll and then returns with a counter right hook. He has also become famous for his ability to read the head kick and completely lean out of its arc, returning with his own counter right low kick; however, this takes confidence and can be exploited if Dos Anjos can feint and get the lean back reaction before attacking the body or leg. If Fiziev is leaning back, all his weight is pushed onto the back leg, making him susceptible to takedowns as well, although as educated a striker as he is, his reactions and ability to adapt to feints are great.

The championship rounds may be most important in this fight, as this is the rare case of a fight that wasn’t initially scheduled for five rounds. Statistics do not always tell the intricacies of fighting, but Fiziev in all his decision wins has shown dominance over two and had questionable third rounds where his performance dips. This is a combination of things, first as with anyone, he fades to a certain level, but also a common story told by Fiziev’s training partners and opponents is he has a particularly unusual rhyme to his striking, which is why timing him early on is difficult. However, it seems, usually by round three, when he is already ahead on the scorecards his opponents finally figure him out a tad too late, but in this case Dos Anjos will be working with two additional rounds. Fiziev is yet to fight a high level wrestling specialist in his career, but shown to be adept in grappling to a certain extent. He has a heavy base on top but finds difficulty landing effective ground and pound and maintaining control at the same time. He has great clinch work so taking him down when he has already established a frame on the arms and shoulders is difficult. Dos Anjos is great at shooting the double on the fence, but again he needs to pressure Fiziev to that line. From there, it’s a battle of clasping his hands but when he does he almost always completes the attempt. On top, most often, he likes to get into his opponent’s deep half guard so that he can land elbows and work towards pinning their arm to their head in order to get to the arm triangle.

I can absolutely see Fiziev edging out the early rounds but finding it difficult to land the cleanest shots consistently on the tight defense of Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos will also find difficulty putting Fiziev onto the cage early on as well, but after a competitive first couple of rounds, Dos Anjos’ experience in rounds 4 and 5, as well as getting used to the timing of Fiziev, will lead to more consistent takedown attempts and forward pressure, which in turn open up more opportunities on the feet and Dos Anjos will win late or via the last three round scores.

Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos to win (+180 odds at MyBookie)

Michael Pounders

Rafael dos Anjos silenced many doubters, myself included, in his most recent fight, a mauling of Renato Moicano. RDA is 37 but does not seem to be slowing down in the least, despite his age and number of fights. Dos Anjos is a talented and relentless wrestler and grappler who has the high-level experience necessary to intelligently hunt takedowns and land them successfully. RDA averages nearly 2 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 37% success rate. His typical style is to box at range, then use combinations to close distance and engage a clinch against the cage. Once here, RDA will dirty box for a while to force his opponent into a vulnerable position, then, suddenly, drop levels for a single or double-leg takedown. If the fight hits the mat, more often than not, the fight ends with RDA finding a submission or vicious ground and pound. Prior to his last fight, the doubters of RDA questioned his speed and effectiveness on the feet. He proved to all that his boxing is still dangerous. He is able to keep a high guard, land with power, and push a high-volume pace. The issue he often faces on the feet is against athletic and varied kickboxers who can attack his body and head in the same combination. Since RDA keeps such a high and tight guard, his body is exposed and he does not have the speed or footwork to avoid varied striking.

Fiziev might have the best and most complete kickboxing game in the entire division. He tends to stand in a tall Muay Thai stance, constantly and predatorily moving forward. He boxes with tight combinations and power. Fiziev’s kicks, though, are the reason he is so dangerous. His kicking game is so unbelievably fast that I’m running out of analogies. I’ve compared him to having hinges for hips and invisible rubber bands snapping his legs forward. But, the simplest way to describe Fiziev’s kicking game is to blatantly say his kicks harder, faster, and with more variety than anyone in the division. He can land thudding body shots and head kicks with zero telegraph or tell as to which is coming. Defensively, Fiziev has gone viral with his matrix style head movement. He is able to bend and twist effectively to not only avoid power shots from his opponents but also create openings and angles for his own counter shots. The question Fiziev will need to address in this fight is if his defensive grappling, specifically his takedown defense, can hold up to an elite level wrestler. Thus far, Fiziev’s forward pressure, strong base, and natural strength have allowed him to keep most fights standing. Those who have landed a takedown have struggled to hold Fiziev down, he will immediately scramble as soon as he hits the mat. He’ll need to be on his game for this fight against such a high-level grappler in RDA.

I see this fight as being one-way traffic one way or the other, either Fiziev won’t be able to stuff RDA’s takedowns and RDA will maul him for the entire fight or Fiziev will be able to keep the fight standing and outclass RDA on the feet. I’m betting on the ladder. Fiziev is too fast and RDA is too hittable. I like Fiziev to rock RDA early and find the finish in round 2 or 3, before RDA can even commit to a series of relentless takedown attempts.

Pick: Rafael Fiziev to win by KO (+225 odds at MyBookie)

Joe Pounders

“You want fight, you fight with me!” (Fiziev). That quote became trending quite quickly, as Fiziev jokingly volunteered to give the social media mega-star, Hasbulla, a fight. Although this quote is hyperbolic in nature, the core foundation illustrates who Rafael Fiziev is, and most importantly, who he is as a fighter.

Fiziev is a confident striker who has a great affinity for fighting. The latter half of enjoyment for fighting seems like it should be present for nearly all professional fighters, but even if it is the case, many fighters elect to use tactics and alternate paths to victory contrary than standing toe-to-toe with their opponent and simply fight them. Fiziev, on the other hand, would happily agree to a 5 x 5 octagon where striking is the only option, and if this mock scenario came to fruition, there are perhaps only a handful of lightweight contenders who could match the skills of Fiziev because his striking is truly at an elite level.

Specifically, Fiziev uses elite Muay Thai to land impressive knees, elbows, and most impactfully, kicks against his opponent. I have said this in prior articles, but I still believe Fiziev has one of, if not the best kicking games in the UFC when you analyze his speed, power, and precision combination. The precision of his kicks are so effective because he understands how to use his hands and alternate strikes to set up these kicks, and his footwork and general body dexterity allow him to land kicks to all levels without any telegraph whatsoever.

The focus of Fiziev’s positive attributes is indicative of the question he must answer in this fight, as the grappling of Fiziev is not a focus from an offensive perspective, so he must display he can negate takedowns from a strong wrestling opponent. To date, Fiziev’s flexibility and continual focus on self-improvement have allowed him to have a jaw-dropping 95% takedown success rate, so, he must show that the elite defensive game will translate against a near-elite wrestler.

RDA is the aforementioned near-elite wrestler. This statement may fuel some fight fans with hubbub, as the grappling of RDA is truly elite, but when it comes to strict wrestling, RDA is just shy of the elite status by my estimation – a career 37% takedown success rate is a quantitative illustration to justify my belief. Regardless of the wrestling acumen debate, the totality of grappling from RDA is next level, as evident by him finishing ~1/3 of his fights by submission – 10 of 31 wins. Interestingly, he has just 1 win by submission since 2017, but this minimal figure is not too much of a concern given the elite competition he has faced coupled with the shift in the mentality of fight style.

The latter reason is important to analyze when forecasting the future bout success of RDA. Luckily, the shift in style is rather easy to see, as he, being a true veteran of the sport, understands patience and control will supersede aggression over the long haul of fighting. He showcases patience by using striking – technical southpaw boxing with mild kicks – to set up takedowns rather than blinding shooting in, which is a massive positive from a defensive striking lens coupled with having success in taking his opponent to the mat. Moreover, he uses patience on the mat, as he favors control over “going for the finish”, and this control allows him to be extremely heavy on top position, inflict ground and pound, and ultimately win the round. In total, I see RDA as very similar to that of fellow future HOF fighter, Jose Aldo, in the sense that both have settled into their new division and are perhaps fighting better than they ever have before.

As cliché as it is to say, this fight is truly striker vs grappler. If it stays standing, Fiziev’s Muay Thai will greatly hurt RDA’s southpaw boxing. If it hits the mat, RDA’s heavy control, similar to that of Glover Teixeira, will allow him to rack up points and damage to win rounds. So, throwing all that aside, the question is who has the better alternate game relative to their opponent. The fact that Fiziev has shown to have elite takedown defense coupled with having electrifying athleticism to make takedown shots difficult lends me believing his defensive grappling is greater than that of RDA’s striking. Because of this, I believe Fiziev will be able to keep the fight standing, and once there, he will inflict significant damage.

Pick: Rafael Fiziev to win by KO (+225 odds at MyBookie)

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Riddell vs. Fiziev betting odds

The commonality of record, proximity of UFC ranking, and a shared passion for violence rationalize the odds of -115 in both directions. The close odds accompanied by each fighter knowing the other quite well from their former training days together warrants the Dana White trademark saying that this is a fight you definitely do not want to miss.

• Riddell: -105
• Fiziev: -125

Riddell vs. Fiziev breakdown

Riddell is a prototypical Australiasian fighter who possesses the attributes of natural power, fantastic cardio, and a keen ability to adhere to a strong game plan during the midst of a war. In his last fight, Riddell put on a masterclass performance over a perennial top-15 fighter, Drew Dober. Riddell was able to neutralize the sizable power threat of Dober by putting on constant pressure, and this pressure opened up opportunities to land takedown after takedown. Although Riddell is a sound striker in his own right and has had a natural affinity for fighting wars, he displayed the ability to fight the way that led him to the easiest path to victory against Dober, thus showcasing fantastic fight IQ. This evolution from brawling to fighting intelligently demonstrates the continual improvement Riddell has shown fight after fight. His ability, and now, willingness to use his multifaceted skill-set makes him a real problem for any fighter ranked in the lightweight division.

Being a perceived problem inside the octagon has been associated with Rafael Fiziev since his arrival at the UFC. Fiziev is an elite striker who possesses the fastest and most devastating kicks within the division. His ability to fluidly switch stances and land clean power strikes at a clip of over five strikes per minute to all areas of the body makes him a difficult fight for anyone who decides to stand against him. To date, his opponents within the UFC have had no choice but to fight in a striking affair, as Fiziev maintains a takedown defense of 100%. This impressive takedown percentage has been against fighters who have had historical success in grappling within the octagon. Renato Moicano landed 6 of 8 takedowns and Green 6 of 9 in each of their fights surrounding their bout against Fiziev. But, when fighting the Kazakhstani warrior, neither fighter could take him down. Fiziev’s ability to be an elite striker while also possessing the ability to neutralize the threat of being taken to the ground is an impressive combination that leaves many in the MMA community believing he has top-5 written all over him.

Riddell vs. Fiziev prediction

To combat the elite skill-set of Fiziev, Riddell will likely look to implement a similar plan as he had in his last fight, where he pressured the strong striker, ultimately aiming to test the cardio of his opposition which will open up takedown opportunities. The issue Riddell will find in this fight is that even though Fiziev has had mild cardio issues in the past, he has continually shown the ability to keep the fight standing. I anticipate Fiziev showcasing early on that taking him down is not a legitimate option. His ability to combat the takedown coupled with his continual output and frequent stance switches will likely frustrate Riddell throughout the fight. This frustration, accompanied by Fiziev being the more advanced striker, will allow Fiziev to have his pick of the litter as to where he lands his damaging strikes, especially over the first two rounds where cardio is not a concern.

Prediction: Fiziev by decision

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Green, six years older than his foe, is 27-11. His wins are split among eight KO/TKOs, nine submissions, and ten decisions. Four of “King’s” losses have come via finish, two KO/TKO, and two submissions. Both men are stylistically different, but, high-end strikers nonetheless.

Fiziev vs. Green betting odds

Despite neither man being ranked and Fiziev with less experience, he enters Saturday night as a substantial -330 favorite over Green’s underdog price of +255.

• Rafael Fiziev: -280
• Bobby Green: +220

Fiziev vs. Green breakdown

Fiziev is a great kickboxer, possibly an elite one. He snaps his kicks so fast and with such power, it’s as if his legs are held back by rubber bands. When he lets the bands go, his legs crack whatever is in front of him. Beyond his kicking game, “Ataman” mixes in solid boxing with cardio to continue a high output. He averages 4.7 significant strikes per minute with a notable 57% accuracy. Despite his 71-inch reach and kicking game that helps him stay at range, he is hittable, absorbing 4.2 significant strikes per minute. With a good chin and often the edge in power and accuracy, Fiziev frequently wins the strike for strike exchanges.

Familiar with a high and accurate output himself, Green averages 5.2 significant strikes per minute with a 51% accuracy. Unlike Fiziev though, many of Green’s strikes are led by his impressively quick jab that he fires from his hip. Also, while Fiziev’s kicks are fast, Green has some of the fastest reflexes in the octagon. He keeps his hands purposely low and relies on his head movement to avoid getting hit. With only two KO losses and at 63% striking defense, Green’s “Mayweather” style of fighting works well for him. On top of the boxing prowess, Green has a strong grappling game in his back pocket that he can call on if he does get stung on the feet. And, with solid cardio, he has a tendency to push the pace in round 3 to turn a close fight into a win.

Fiziev vs. Green prediction

Green’s boxing is impressive, but, I don’t predict it’ll be enough to win. Fiziev is one of the more talented prospects I’ve seen. His striking game is truly impressive and he’s shown a veteran-like demeanor when faced with adversity. Still though, while Fiziev often kicks his opponents to oblivion, I don’t think he’ll get the finish Saturday night. Green is too experienced and too evasive for me to predict that Fiziev comes in and runs him over. But, I do anticipate that the Kyrgyzstan fighter gets the job done.

Prediction: Rafael Fiziev to win by decision

The post UFC 265 Predictions: Rafael Fiziev vs. Bobby Green odds, analysis appeared first on The Body Lock.

Fiziev’s manager, Sayat Abdrakhmanov, announced the news via an Instagram post. The video (see below) shows Fiziev’s reaction to the famous UFC call.

Fiziev, 25, has a proclivity for finishing fights. All six of his professional bouts have been stoppage victories, with each more impressive than the last.

Fiziev was supposed to compete on this past season of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in September, but he was forced to withdraw.

Training out of Tiger Muay Thai, Fiziev’s striking is his bread and butter. He has finished all but one of his fights via knockout, including a dazzling array of highlight-reel caliber kicks, knees, and punches.

Those finishes have led to Fiziev’s status as a viral sensation. One video, which captured Fiziev’s incredible dodge of a high kick, has over two million views alone.

Abdrakhmanov confirmed to The Body Lock that Fiziev does not have an opponent lined up yet.

The Body Lock can also confirm that a UFC debut in Russia, potentially the April 20 event in St. Petersburg, has been discussed by both parties.

 

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Одна из главных причин из-за которой я люблю свою работу, это такие вот моменты , когда ты делишься новостью которая так много значит для твоего брата. Поздравляю с подписанием в лучшую лигу мира братан @rafael_ataman_fiziev я рад что тоже поспособствовал исполнению твоей мечты. Скоро весь мир узнает твой уровень и увидит результаты твоих трудов! —————————————————————— One of the reasons I love what I do it’s moment like this! @dannyrube and I telling @rafael_ataman_fiziev that he finally got the UFC call!

A post shared by Sayat 萨亚特 ฃายัท (@sayatus) on Feb 8, 2019 at 8:21pm PST

The post UFC signs undefeated lightweight Rafael Fiziev appeared first on The Body Lock.