Edwards (20-3) shocked the world when he dethroned Usman (20-2) by head-kick knockout in their rematch at UFC 278, ending his rival’s 19-fight winning streak and becoming only the second British UFC champion in history. The Birmingham native is now undefeated in 11 straight fights since losing to Usman by unanimous decision in their first encounter back in 2015.

Usman, who was widely regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport before his loss to Edwards, will look to reclaim his belt and settle the score with his nemesis. The Nigerian-born American has defeated some of the top names in the division, including Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, and Gilbert Burns.

In this article, The Body Lock’s expert analysts will provide their predictions for the Edwards vs. Usman trilogy fight at UFC 286, as well as our best bets and the latest betting odds.

Betting Odds

The betting odds favor Usman as a -250 favorite, meaning you would have to bet $250 to win $100. Edwards is a +190 underdog, meaning you would win $190 if you bet $100 on him.

• Leon Edwards: +190
• Kamaru Usman: -250

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Both of these fighters will have to take a good hard long look at their last performance in preparation for the trilogy. There is a lot both men can use to boost their confidence and a lot that they will have to work diligently to alter as they meet again.

Leon Edwards is the more technical and sharp fighter from the outside, he uses his height and reach well when given space. He usually stands southpaw but will switch in order to throw his attacks from the lead-hand side. For example, early in the Usman fight, he went conventional to attack Usman’s right knee with a lead leg side kick, a technique that he surprisingly held back on later on in the fight considering Usman’s knee problems in the past and that it’s a great technique to halt forward momentum. This is also the stance which he uses to land the power jab instead of the setup. I believe regardless of what stance he is in, utilizing his knees up the middle is also key as Usman rushes in with flurries, Edwards was able to do so a couple of times in their second meeting but failed to follow up with anything significant after landing the individual blows.

For Usman, he has to and will be wary in that outside range. He is great at corralling Edwards to the cage before he opens up and has a lot of success because as he unloads, Edwards typically covers up and allows Usman to go to the body or level change, which is where the majority of his takedowns land. On the flip side, Edwards did have wrestling success when he was fresh but the key is that it comes when he is able to clinch up square and use his height and reach to off balance and break the posture of Usman and hit those outside trips. Based on both their skillset and physical advantages, level changing is not going to be a high rate of success for Edwards, but working from those overhooks could be.

What Usman does so well is that when he does get his opponents pressed up against the fence, he gets the head past the right shoulder and wears on them, pulling them away and down rather than just smashing them into the cage. This creates a constant pressure, where they carry his weight, which is largely what fatigues his opponents so much faster than they expect. Many people have attributed Edwards’ fatiguing to the altitude but it is notable that he was sharp and fast when he was at his range punching and kicking in the fifth, it was mostly in the grappling exchanges that he began being complacent and not responding. Every time Edwards would have success, Usman would immediately try to return with something to gain that advantage back, throughout the entire fight, which is why he was potentially ahead on scorecards.

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An interesting look in the first fight was the first time Usman was forced to work out of a bad position flattened on his back. We have typically seen Usman out-wrestle and thus actively control when the fight hits the mat and essentially always end up in top position. As Edwards became the first man to disrupt this pattern, we were able to see for the first time Usman’s reaction, which was immediately to go belly down and give up his back, allowing Edwards to then execute a body triangle and win the round. He was eventually able to get out of it, but it should be noted for Edwards that Usman may still carry some of those wrestlers’ instincts, uncaught due to an ability to have thus far dominated top position.

However at the end of the day, landing that heavy strike, taking the back, and these areas where Edwards could make big strides towards winning could very well be few and far between with Usman’s style. There were moments in the rematch where Usman let go of positions to unload shots, which could be less likely with a more conservative Usman willing to win on points rather than risk that finish. Furthermore, like last time, every time Edwards explodes and exerts that energy to success, no doubt Usman will spend the same to return and send the ball rolling back into his court. Regardless of the strides in grappling, Leon has made or will make between their last fight and now, the big issue is that Usman’s wrestling gas tank is built over a career, and Leon, as skilled as he is, is unable to keep that pace.

Best Bet: Kamaru Usman to win (-235)

Michael Pounders

Context is everything. On paper, Edwards is the current welterweight champ and earned that title by knocking out Usman nearly 7 months ago, yet he is a +200 underdog in their rematch. That is because of context. In their last fight, Usman was clearly winning for 24:04 of a 25-minute fight. Usman nearly tripled Edwards’ striking attempts and landed significant strikes a 1.5:1 ratio. Beyond out-landing Edwards on the feet, Usman also landed 5 takedowns inside of 4 rounds and racked up over 10 minutes of control time. Yet, he lost the fight when Edwards landed a head kick from hell and knocked Usman out cold with less than 1 minute to go in the fight. Usman being a -250 favorite again over Edwards suggests that the context around the fight, Usman winning 90% of the fight, impacts the line significantly. Said simply, Vegas oddsmakers are expecting this trilogy fight to continue on the path of the first matchup- Usman won by decision- and the first 24 minutes of the rematch.

The line also indicates just how elite Usman is. Despite being 35 years old and coming off a brutal knockout loss, Usman’s impressive skillset and history have more than warranted respect from the books. For those that don’t already know, Usman is a highly skilled wrestler, a significantly improved striker, an intellectual fighter, and an all-time great champion. His reign was so dominant, until Edwards landed his left leg, that some were beginning to discuss Usman as the GOAT of the welterweight division. Yes, the same division that GSP sat atop for years. Stylistically, Usman fights behind a power jab that has only improved in speed, precision, and snap over the years. He uses the jab at times to deal damage; and, at other times, to dictate pace and space. Once he gets his opponent where he wants them, he, without telegraphing his next move, will look to land a heavy right hand with a follow-up combination, or shoot a powerful takedown. Usman’s background is in wrestling and it has been the foundation for his career. He is so skilled at timing his shots, powerful when driving hips, and relentless, even if the takedown attempt is initially stuffed. Unlike some wrestlers who are out of their element if the takedown attempt turns into a clinch fight, Usman excels in the clinch as well. He holds position with a low center of gravity, drives his head into the chest of his opponent, and can use throws and trips to bring the fight to the mat. Until his recent loss, Usman’s combination of consistent offense, persistent wrestling, and intelligent defense made him seem almost unbeatable. However, now that Edwards cracked the code with a cracking kick, Usman seems more human, his age more apparent, and his notorious knee problems more concerning.

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Leon “Rocky” Edwards lived up to his nickname with one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history. Seemingly unaffected by losing 24 minutes of a rematch against such a dominant champion, Edwards continued his same game plan in round 5 that had yet to work effectively in the first 4 rounds. Had Usman evaded the kick, critics would likely have criticized Edwards for not adapting mid-fight and ramping up the pressure. But, because he did land, Edwards has been praised for trusting his style- lower output but highly technical striking. Edwards, an athletically gifted southpaw kickboxer, has always shown picturesque striking. His footwork, punching and kicking combinations, and relaxed yet powerful strikes could be a silhouette for an expert kickboxing video. Edwards typically stands tall in the center of the cage and pumps a long and stiff jab forward to force a reaction out of opponents. His approach is patient, almost casual at times. Then, when they react, Edwards instantly pounces and switches from almost apathetic striking to an explosive and lightning-quick combination that can, as we all saw, shut the lights out in an instant. Because of his lulling style, Edwards backers often are frustrated at his lack of aggression and can, justifiably, worry that he can get out-worked. However, much like Chito Vera in the 135 division, when you have the explosive power, truly special timing, and impeccable skill of Edwards, passivity isn’t a criticism, it is a strategy.

This fight will likely look, at least early on, similar to the last one. Usman will jab and wrestle while Edwards looks to counter and stuff takedown attempts. I think the key differences in this fight are Usman’s reputation, Edwards’ confidence, the hometown crowd, and Usman’s knees. Usman, for a long time, felt unbeatable atop the division. But, now that he’s been not only beaten but finished, the mystical shine that once clouded competitors is gone.

While Usman has benefited from his reign, Edwards has inversely struggled from a lack of consistently competing. Edwards has dealt with a career of canceled fights, injuries, and strange obstacles impeding his rise in the division. Now that he is champion, Edwards has the consistency and confidence to fight at his best. The London crowd, which will undoubtedly propel Edwards before and during the fight, will only boost his confidence and energy.

Finally, and most tangibly, are Usman’s knees. He’s had knee issues for years that have limited his movement and wrestling. Now that he is 35, his knee issues are likely the worst they’ve ever been heading into a fight. Moving away from the narrative of the fight, I think Edwards will apply more pressure early, Usman will be wearier of that deadly head kick, and Edwards will be able to land more consistently with his hands. He landed an impressive 73% of significant strikes in their first matchup; and, if Edwards is more confident while Usman is less confident and mobile, Edwards should be able to ramp up the volume.

I think only Edwards has the power to end the fight and I think he will have the edge in a decision as well. If it goes to the scorecards, it will likely be razor-thin. I might just be fading Usman because of age and newly exposed vulnerability, but I can’t pass up underdog odds in a fight that I think will be back and forth if it goes the distance. Give me “Rocky” to remain champ.

Best Bet: Edwards to win (+190)

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Winning will be no easy task given his opponent, number 6 ranked, Rafael Fiziev (12-1; 6-1 in the UFC), is one of the most electrifying prospects who combines elite striking with an impressive ability to keep the fight standing.

Knowing Fiziev is a striker through and through coupled with the fact Gaethje enjoys a brawl more than just about anyone, the conclusion is that this bout should be a standing affair for however long it lasts, consequently, is a leading candidate for FOTN.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Rafael Fiziev, riding a 6-fight win streak, is priced as a -238 favorite over Justin Gaethje, who comes back as a +180 underdog.

• Rafael Fiziev: -225 (MyBookie)
• Justin Gaethje: +180 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

The lightweight division is littered with dominant wrestlers. On paper, this fact would be of little concern for Justin Gaethje given his background as a 2-time high school state champion and D1 college wrestler. But, Gaethje has seemingly abandoned his wrestling credentials given his difficulty in this department against the elite of the elite. The consequence of doing so is obviously given he has lost championship-caliber fights to elite grapplers, but, the benefit is him turning into one of the most feared strikers to stand against given he is one of, if not the most, powerful punchers in the division.

Beyond having thunder in his fists, Gaethje uses a quick and snapping leg kick when at range, making him a complete striker given he can have success from distance, and if turned into an in-the-pocket fight, his elite power makes him a probable candidate to get the better of tight exchanges. This skill set makes him far more well-rounded in striking than his bar-like style gets credit for, and, when you add the fact he has KO’d a hyper-quick, kick-centric fighter in the recent past of Edson Barboza, his opponent here needs to recognize the threat that Gaethje is. If not, Gaethje can re-enter the winning circle, likely in fight-ending, thumping fashion.

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Rafael Fiziev is one of the most entertaining strikers in the entire UFC. His speed and precision with the variety of strikes thrown is a thing of beauty, and, he has had moments of matrix-like movements from a defensive perspective. This ability, to have a plethora of elite offensive strikes with a keen awareness to dodge damaging blows from a defensive perspective makes him one of the best strikers in the UFC.

Often, when a striker of Fiziev’s caliber enters the octagon, his opponent seeks to take him to the mat. The issue, for his opponents, is that he has a TD defense of 92% in the UFC, and, as shown in his last fight against the hyper-dangerous grappler of RDA, Fiziev can get up off the mat if somehow taken there. So, having the ability to stay on his feet gives him the advantage in his fights given the elite attributes he possesses in the striking department. The only concern Fiziev has mildly shown in his fights is lacking a significant positive gap in strike output for him compared to his opponent. While this is the case, particularly in a time of bad judging, he does win the striking battle from a visual perspective because he lands with clean, precise power, compared to his opponents landing mildly missed shots on him.

Prediction

When there is a fight between two high-end opponents with similar styles, something unexpected typically happens with regard to how the fight plays out. For this fight, I have complete confidence this bout will indeed be a standing affair, and knowing each opponent has strengths with fighting at range and close in the pocket, I have further confidence this will be a highly entertaining fight from start to finish.

Under the presumption this will be a standing affair, I am electing to back the favorite, Rafael Fiziev, to secure his 7th straight win. While I would not be surprised whatsoever if Gaethje lands one of his massive power shots to secure a victory, I trust the probability of victory is in Fiziev’s favor, as he has the far faster kicks, demonstrated ability to avoid power shots, and, has a plethora of fight-ending attacks that are thrown from a variety of angles that are often not seen, thus lands cleanly. The implied odds state that he has a 69% chance of winning, and given this stylistic matchup is simply perfect for Fiziev, I believe his chances are closer to the 75% range, so, there is 75 cent value in the ML price, as such, I am perfectly okay laying the -225 price tag on him on the ML.

Pick: Fiziev to win (-225)

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Both are coming off of solid wins, with Herbert taking Kyle Nelson to a unanimous division and Klein riding off a two-fight win streak against Mason Jones and Devonte Smith, however, it’ll take much more than a simple win for them to make their name in such a star-studded division.

The two lightweights are very sharp strikers with a vast arsenal of attacks on the feet, making this an extremely interesting and technical fight for an early prelim.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Likely due to the fact that he’s riding a solid win streak against more talented opponents, Ľudovít Klein enters this bout as a slight favorite.

• Ľudovít Klein: -195 (MyBookie)
• Jai Herbert: +165 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As stated before, these two are extremely technical in their striking despite their lack of rank or prestige. Herbert is extremely long for a 155-pound fighter, sporting a lanky 77-inch reach that he uses to try and snipe his opponents with quick jabs and leg kicks. When opponents enter the pocket with him, he uses heavy knees and hooks in order to circle off and regain distance. He actually has very capable power as well, with his precise and quick shots often finding the mark to hurt his opponents greatly.

Klein implements a very similar style, albeit fairly more aggressively, using his southpaw stance to throw stinging jabs and follow up with left hands in order to enter the pocket. He’s much more liberal than Herbert in the diversity and frequency of his strikes, often throwing off his opponents by mixing the placement of his kicks and finding unorthodox angles to attack the legs and body. He’s much more willing to get hurt as well, taking some solid shots in his exchanges in order to throw back more menacing strikes.

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When it comes to grappling, both fighters seem to be at a deficit, at least in comparison to much of their competition in the lightweight division. When matched up with grapplers, they’ve both shown themselves to be fairly outmatched, expending much of their energy trying to get back to their feet. This likely will not be a large factor in this fight, however, unless either fighter gets hurt badly.

From within the clinch, both fighters are fairly dangerous. Neither threatens takedowns or any exchanges of grappling, but they both frequently throw knees from the Thai clinch and often circle off in order to throw devastating shots on the break. Although none of them were fight-enders, Herbert has also thrown some extremely dangerous elbows from within the clinch, adding to the danger that his opponents face when entering the pocket with him.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The main problem with Herbert going into this fight is his chin. Of his four fights within the UFC, he’s been knocked out in three, all of which in fairly brutal fashion. In exchanges where he’s been caught clean, he tends to retreat far too passively and not be able to keep himself together for the rest of the fight.

Klein is more than capable of throwing a knockout punch or kick and, should Herbert be within range, they could do some serious damage to Herbert and alter the fight completely. Herbert showed many improvements in his most recent fight, however, being much more active after losing the first round, so it would be wrong to count him out completely.

Pick: Ludovit Klein to win (-195)

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This is Vettori’s first fight back after two losses to former champions in Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Meanwhile, Dolidze is riding off of a four-fight win streak, finishing his last three opponents in an exciting fashion.

Both are extremely well-rounded grapplers, albeit with polarizing styles, with very capable striking that’s shown to give many of their opponents problems. One thing is certain, and that’s the fact that this is likely the most pivotal fight in the middleweight division this month.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Despite coming off of two UD losses, Vettori enters this fight as a moderate favorite.

• Marvin Vettori: -265 (MyBookie)
• Roman Dolidze: +225 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

The main commonality between both of these fighters is their more-than-adept ability on the ground. Marvin seems to be much more driven to score takedowns, however, opting to shoot relentlessly whenever matched up against a solid striker. He should be careful about this going into this bout with Dolidze, however, as he’s been shown to have extremely solid reversals and submission threats off his back.

The two fighters are also extremely capable within the clinch. Vettori opts to take a much more dirty-boxing approach, throwing hooks and uppercuts to the body in order to set up his double legs and body lock takedowns, while Dolidze is extremely proficient within the Thai clinch, throwing brutal knees and snapping down his opponents into sprawls. This clinch style is what scored him a knockout victory against the always-tough Kyle Daukaus as he pushed him toward the cage and landed a single brutal knee to end the fight.

While both of these fighters have extremely dangerous grappling their striking is equally, if not more threatening. Their striking style is actually very similar to their clinching style, with Vettori relying on sharp counter hooks and jabs while peppering in the occasional body kick to control the distance. Meanwhile, Dolidze continues to carry a Thai-esque style in his striking, throwing powerful crosses and mixing his kicks to the legs, body, and head.

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Overall, while Vettori is a very capable striker, having gone five rounds with household names like Paulo Costa and Israel Adesanya, I still believe Dolidze has the edge in this department. While Vettori has some sharp counters and solid clinch work, his entries are fairly rudimentary, with him often getting caught as he comes in. As well as this, while he has a rock-hard chin, he’s shown himself to waver for the rest of the fight after taking some heavy shots, as his movement slows down and his shots lose their accuracy.

One advantage is certain for Vettori, and that’s his cardio. This isn’t to say that Dolidze actually has weak conditioning, he’s actually gone three rounds relatively easily many times in his career. However, Vettori has gone five rounds against much more skilled opponents while looking moderately fresh toward the championship rounds. His conditioning and toughness are likely his two strongest attributes, carrying him through much of his early career in the UFC, which makes this a big test to see whether or not Dolidze could hang with the top names of the division for more than three rounds.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Although Vetorri is the much more seasoned fighter in this bout, having gone against more seasoned fighters than Dolidze in his rise through the UFC, I see an upset happening this weekend.

Now, I still see this being an extremely difficult fight for Dolidze, no opponent he’s faced yet has come close to the caliber of Vettori, however, I see more ways for him to win this fight. They’re relatively equal on the ground, however on the feet I see Dolidze having a bit of an edge. He’s a much more level-headed striker and has shown himself to face adversity more easily.

If Vettori wants a win in this bout, he’s going to need to sting Dolidze or grind him out on the ground early in the fight. I still don’t see Dolidze scoring a finish in this fight though, just because of how hard Vettori is to put away so, because of that, I’m going with Dolidze via decision.

Bet: Roman Dolidze by Decision (+900) or Roman Dolidze to Win (+225)

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Makwan “Mr. Finland” Amirkhani, 34, is 6 years older than Shore and has a significant edge in UFC experience. Under the UFC banner, Akirkhani is 7-6 with 5 finish wins and 3 finish losses.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

• Jack Shore: -526 (MyBookie)
• Makwan Amirkhani: +349 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Shore, despite his recent loss to the surging Simon, is a prospect to watch. I truly believe he’ll be a contender for the belt in the next few years. He is a highly skilled fighter who does everything in the cage with proper technique. He takes his time, picks his shots, and makes opponents pay for even the smallest mistake. Diving deeper, Shore is an orthodox striker with crispy boxing and an ability to land at range consistently. He moves fluidly for his frame, which was large for 135, and smoothly while striking. His hands are quick, his punches are straight, and his timing is impeccable.

Beyond his excellent striking, Shore has high-level wrestling and an innate ability to transition to the back, especially when clinched against the cage. Lastly, and possibly most importantly for his future title aspirations, Shore has excellent cardio and an ability to keep his methodical pace up for an entire fight. The only times we’ve seen Shore struggle have come against stocky wrestlers, Simon and Azure, who were able to take “Tank” down or reverse position on the mat while Shore was going for a submission attempt. The size difference between these two 135ers and Shore posed issues for “Tank” that the move up to 145 should rectify.

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Amirkhani has 1 round of aggression and cardio, after that, he is typically gassed and struggles to avoid being finished. Beyond his cardio issues, Amirkhani consistently struggles with rangy kickboxers, like Murphy and Kirk, who can keep him at bay and force him to use even more energy when trying to wrestle. Amirkhani also struggles against persistent wrestlers who can push “Mr. Finland” back and to his back where he spends meaningful minutes attempting defensive submissions and meaningful energy trying to stand up. The fighter that Amirkhani has consistently beat is the slow-starting striker or the sloppy wrestler. Amirkhani will look to wrestle immediately and do so aggressively.

His wrestling is rooted in strength and odd angles rather than technique, but it is undeniably effective in round 1. If he can successfully get his opponent down, “Mr. Finland” is a real submission threat from top position and has consistently found finishes in the first 5 minutes. Additionally, if a wrestler shoots lazily on him, Amirkhani is capable, even with depleted cardio, to take advantage of a small opening and find a submission finish against the cage or from his back. Amirkhani is always dangerous because of his 1st round burst and live submission threat; but, he consistently struggles against intelligent fighters who mind their Ps and Qs.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Shore is well-schooled, highly technical, well-rounded, and patient. He has the range to give Amirkhani fits on the feet, the defensive grappling to safely keep the fight standing, and the intelligent wrestling necessary to get “Mr. Finland” to the mat.

Stylistically, Shore is set up for success. So long as the move up to featherweight, something that seemed inevitable given his frame, doesn’t cause issues and so long that Amirkhani doesn’t land a Hail Mary submission, Shore should win this fight any way he chooses. Given Shore’s boxing prowess and Amirkhani’s notable cardio issues, I like Shore to piece up Amirkhani early and find the finish late.

Best Bet: Shore wins inside the distance (-140)

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The second fighter named Chris Duncan on this card, Chris “The Problem” Duncan is also a DWCS alum. He makes his UFC debut following an electrifying comeback first-round knockout win his last time out. Overall, “The Problem” is 9-1 with 7 knockout wins and 1 knockout loss.

Betting Odds

This fight has the narrowest odds on the whole card, sitting at nearly a pick’em.

• Morales: -120 (MyBookie)
• Duncan: +100 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Morales is much older than his record suggests and he joined the UFC at an atypical age as well. Because of this, his career is unlikely to result in him earning a ranking, more likely he is fighting for paychecks as long as he can. I bring that up because Morales is starting to show his age in the cage. He has been finished in back-to-back fights. To his credit, both fighters to finish him are powerful and talented; but, the way in which he was finished is concerning.

Morales has always been a powerful kickboxer who tends to fight with low volume as he looks to land one shot counter strikes throughout a 15 minute stand up battle. But, recently, Morales has increased his pressure and volume. On paper, that is great to see since Morales has always had decent hands and a heavy-kicking game. However, as he’s increased volume, Morales has taken more risks on the feet and has been tagged more frequently.

In his most recent fights, “Venezuelan Fighter” appears to be pressing and he’s paid for it by getting finished. Morales is at this best when he patiently moves forward, chops his opponent’s lead leg, and lands infrequent but accurate counter combinations. It may not be the most exciting strategy but Morales is too slow, too linear, and, possibly too old, to engage in blow for blow fire fights. If he dictates distance and pace, Morales can win fights through attrition.

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While Morales is at his best when he’s patient, Duncan is at his best when he aggressively moves forward. He lacks technique, footwork, and defensive awareness but he has anvils for fits and hits heavy. If Duncan tries to win a fight at range against most UFC-caliber strikers, he’ll be picked apart and likely swing at mostly air. Instead, Duncan’s best game plan is to push forward, land a dense leg kick that immobilizes opponents and look to tee off against a stationary target.

The danger in this strategy, though, as evident during his most recent fight, is Duncan can forgo the little defense he has when he ramps up to full momentum. When this happens, Duncan is tagged and can be hurt. He was dropped in his last fight and ate 3 consecutive uppercuts that nearly ended the fight. Then, somehow still conscious, Duncan rallied to find his own finish by throwing a massive overhand right. His power is undeniable but the longer the fight goes, the more danger he is in.

Prediction and Betting Guide

There has been a recent trend of handicappers fading debutants from DWCS. While a blind fade of any fighter is a risky endeavor, the rationale behind this strategy is sound.

Many debuting fighters, we saw a prime example last week from Dumas, are unproven and untested. They come into the UFC with excitement for the unknown but don’t have the experience necessary against a higher level of competition, even if that competition has struggled in the UFC.

Given the UFC debut angle and the nearly pick’em odds, I expect this fight to be hotly debated in MMA circles. I could be burned again by a recent DWCS alum fighter but I like Duncan here. He, unlike many other graduated fighters, did have respectable competition outside of the UFC. Moreover, specifically in this fight, Morales is slowing with age and has become increasingly hittable.

I expect a slugfest for as long as it lasts. And, in a fight like that, I’ll side with the younger and more powerful striker in Duncan.

Best Bet: Duncan to win (+100 at MyBookie) and a sprinkle on RD1 KO (+625 at MyBookie)

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Mokaev is coming off of yet another victory in his so-far perfect record. In October he submitted Malcolm Gordon with a third-round armbar to bring his pro record to 9-0-1, the only blemish being a no-contest in 2021 stopped by an accidental groin kick.

The UFC 286 is this Saturday. Watch the main card live on PPV at 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Filho will walk into his UFC debut as a very substantial underdog. At +400, every dollar bet on Filho could return $4 in an upset.

• Mokaev: -649 (MyBookie)
• Filho: +400 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Jafel Filho will introduce himself to UFC fans this weekend when he makes his promotional debut. Those who have seen him fight on the Brazilian MMA scene or on the contender series, know that he is an especially good grappler and a specialist on the back. However, every fight starts standing and he is no slouch on the feet either.

Filho has a loose relaxed style, but his work rates his very high. He has nice sharp boxing when he lets his hands go but does require a feeling-out process to find his range. This is why you will see him throw more kicks early in the fight and grow his boxing combinations the further the fight takes him. He likes to exude constant pressure, but because of this, he will tend to throw strikes to fill that space without always setting them up, often low kicks which have been countered over the top before. He has a solid right cross and a great left hook that he throws in various combinations, such as his cross step cross to left hook, or jab, cross, hook, and low kick.

His takedowns are efficient, he does not typically look to pick men up, but rather work from a body lock and executes leg reaps to drag his opponents down. He will happily work by smothering his opponents against the cage if he misses an opportunity to get them to the mat, but when he does he has slick guard passing and ultimately wants to reach the back. He utilizes his guillotine in tricky ways, he will use it to defend takedowns, but also to threaten upstairs as he transitions from side control to mount. While he does have good submissions from the mount, he is specifically known for his quick body triangle, the tightness of it and the rear-naked choke is the most consistent submission on his record.

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That in particular is what Mokaev has to be most wary of. In his last outing, Mokaev was caught in a potential rear-naked choke as the second round ended and found his back taken again in the third. This more than anything should have been the position of focus defensively in camp. That being said, in general, Mokaev’s grappling style is very well-equipped for Filho.

Mokaev’s striking is dangerous because he is both creative and fearless. He has come under some criticism for showboating and unnecessary risk-taking on the feet but it’s an important part of what he does. He will use an excess of distance in his footwork, throwing spinning kicks, lead sidekicks, flying knees, and leaping punches. His ability to burst in and jump back out draws his opponents into rushing him and trying to counter, at which point he is so good at level-changing under their blitz and getting to double under hooks or one under hook and a knee tap. From here he turns the pipe or drives them to the cage and finds the takedown.

This is important because although both men will want to test one another’s grappling abilities and should, when and how they get to the ground will most likely be on Mokaev’s terms.

Like Filho, Mokaev also likes to take the back although his submission record is a bit more spread out. He will take the back from the clinch before dragging his opponents down, or figure four the legs off a takedown and maul them until they expose their own back.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Filho’s best bet is to build on the success Malcolm Gordon had in taking Mokaev’s back last year, however outside of that Mokaev will likely control the positioning for most of the fight.

On the feet, both Filho and Mokaev are a huge danger but because Mokaev fights at such a difficult range, the opportunities to land enough combinations before another scramble is started is fairly slim.

I do see most of this fight playing out on the mat, with Mokaev using the cage, getting the better of more of the scrambles and potentially finding a submission opportunity. At -649 this is not a lucrative bet but there is a high chance that he gets it done within the 15-minute limit.

Mokaev’s one decision inside the UFC came because of his opponent’s great takedown defense, Filho while a more dangerous grappler himself will be willing to contest there. It may be a more dangerous fight for Mokaev but I believe there opportunities for him to secure a submission at some point will be more available.

Pick: Muhammad Mokaev to win inside the distance (-155 at MyBookie)

The post Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho prediction | UFC 286 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Malcolm “X” Gordon, 32, snapped a 2 fight losing streak that began his UFC career with a 2 fight winning streak of his own. Then, most recently, Gordon lost via finish for the 3rd time in the UFC and brought his record to 2-3. His wins are via decision and TKO (arm injury); while his losses are all via finish- 2 knockout and 1 submission.

Hadley vs. Gordon will feature on the UFC 286 prelims. Order UFC 286 PPV here.

Betting Odds

Hadley opened as a smaller favorite but quickly grew as money came in on him.

• Hadley: -400 (MyBookie)
• Gordon: +300 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Hadley is a sharp and technical fighter, who, after getting humbled in his debut, showed why he entered the UFC with such hype. On the feet, Hadley is a fast and heavy-hitting southpaw kickboxer. He has a devastating 1,2 combination where his left hand is fired like a laser and lands with an explosion. He is fantastic at landing to all areas of his opponent’s body- legs, body, and head- from range.

Hadley uses footwork and feints to set traps where his opponent is out of position or swings at air. From here, Hadley throws combinations at the exposed areas, landing impartially and with emphasis. Hadley has a unique and entertaining ability to strike with impressive technique and violence which combines to create a dangerous fighter on the feet.

On the mat, Hadley is a good but not great offensive wrestler with technical submissions from top position. He is a well-schooled grappler who is naturally athletic enough to find finishes on the mat. While his striking is natural and fluid, though, his grappling is more fundamental and seems to require thought and planning. While the best grapplers can flow intuitively, Hadley’s need to think though his positions is not the worst situation to be in. It forces Hadley to take his time, hold position, rack up control time when needed, and find the right opening as opposed to the first opening.

Where he struggles, as evident in his debut, is against a larger opponent who is a more naturally grappler. Hadley can be taken down himself and controlled on the mat, but not easily. It takes a large, relentless, and skilled opponent to get Hadley down because “White Kong” has technical scrambling and sweeps. However, wherever the fight goes, Hadley is prepared and often in control.

While Hadley has struggled, only one time, against a particular opponent- large, athletic, strong, and fluid- Gordon has struggled against a variety of opponents. He is a half decent wrestler and defensive grappler with an ability to clinch opponents on the cage or survive off his back. His typical path to victory is through basic boxing to close distance so he push an opponent against the cage or shoot a takedown. His boxing has some power but tends to be slow and rudimentary. Gordon struggles against speed and variety on the feet, especially considering his less than reliable chin.

Against the cage, Gordon uses head position well and can hold opponents as he racks up minutes but he rarely advances position or deals damage. He also struggles against superior grapplers who can reverse the clinch or take him down with trips. Gordon’s best path to victory is to shoot takedowns over and over, landing one or two a round. However, he struggles to land takedowns consistently, especially against superior wrestlers. And, once down, he has the same issues on the mat that he does against the cage- he can control but not advance position. If Gordon can land a takedown early in the fight, while both fighters are dry, we’ve seen Gordon be able to find a submission finish. However, that came outside of the UFC against a lower level of competition.

In the end, Gordon is a good test for unproven prospects because he is decent everywhere in the cage- boxing, clinch, and grappling. But, most fighters with a component of their game that can be described as “great” or even “good” tend to finish “X.”

Prediction and Betting Guide

Against a strong wrestler with an uncharacteristically large frame for the division, Hadley struggled to keep his back off the cage and the canvas in his debut. Gordon does not have the size or strength to mimic that game plan.

Instead, I anticipate Hadley to use his technical defensive grappling to keep the fight standing while his superior boxing propels him to a clear win. Hadley will be sharper on the feet and should land a put-away shot against the defensively porus and weak-chinned Gordon.

I love Hadley as a parlay piece, especially with Shore or Mokaev; but, as an individual play, I think Hadley can take advantage on the feet and find the finish while standing.

Best Bet: Hadley by KO/TKO (+180 at MyBookie)

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First up is the return of Jon Jones, who will make his heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight title. This fight is set to headline UFC 285, the first pay-per-view event of the month. Fans can order the UFC 285 PPV now and watch every fight live on Saturday, March 4.

Next, the UFC returns to London for the grudge match between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman, also on pay-per-view. UFC 286 takes place on Saturday, March 18, and will also be available to watch only on ESPN+ PPV.

But the excitement doesn’t stop there, with crucial bantamweight matchups topping the bill on March 11 and March 25.

Former champ Petr Yan will battle Merab Dvalishvili at the Las Vegas Virgin Hotel on March 11, while Marlon “Chito” Vera will face off against Cory Sandhagen in San Antonio on March 25.

In addition to these exciting bouts, the UFC has made a few tweaks to the upcoming fight cards. On March 11, Davey Grant will take on veteran Raphael Assuncao in a bantamweight bout, while Josh Fremd will face off against UFC debutant and Contender Series alumnus Sedriques Dumas.

Contender Series alum Chris Duncan is also set for his debut in the promotion against Omar Morales at UFC 286. Gunnar Nelson will also make his return against Bryan Barberena on the same card.

Finally, in San Antonio on March 25, Victor Altamirano will take on Vinicius Salvador in a flyweight matchup.

March is set to be one of the most exciting months in recent memory for UFC fans, and these five new fights add further depth to the UFC schedule.

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