Said Nurmagmodedov (17-2; 6-1 in the UFC) is riding a 4-fight win streak, having beat fringe ranked opponents in 3 of those 4 fights. His opponent here, Jonathan Martinez (17-4; 8-3 in the UFC) is also riding a 4-fight win streak coming into his fight, and, with significant confidence given his devastating finish over UFC veteran and fan favorite, Cub Swanson.

Both Said and Martinez are overlooked, dangerous fighters who have fight-ending capabilities wherever the fight goes, making this bout a likely candidate for FOTN and one where the winner certainly will get a ranked opponent next.

Said Nurmagomedov opened around a -200 favorite but has since climbed to -260 against Jonathan Martinez.

• Said Nurmagomedov: -260 (MyBookie)
• Jonathan Martinez: +200 (MyBookie)

Said Nurmagomedov, unrelated but friends to Khabib, resembles the style of the potential title-contending featherweight and training partner, Zabit Magomedsharipov. To understand this style is to first, comprehend that it is a strike-first mentality, and second, not understand the striking at all. Meaning, Said’s most dangerous weapon on the feet is his unpredictability.

Diving a bit deeper into the unorthodox striking of Said, he typically uses a heavy amount of kicks to all levels of his opponent as well as a plethora of spin-oriented attacks which is quite effective given his elite understanding of technique, distance, footwork, and most importantly, timing. Moreover, Said is able to throw a significant amount of spinning attacks given he has strong cardio and is extremely comfortable turning at the risk of getting taken down, knowing his strong grappling will allow him to cause a scramble, and once done, he will win the exchange.

This ability to win scrambles and implement effective grappling was needed in his last fight against the very underrated talent of Saidyokub Kakhramonov. In that fight, Said was got taken to the mat 5 times on 12 attempts and was looking like he was on his way to losing against the well-rounded and strong wrestling opponent of Kakhramonov. But, knowing his opponent would continue to shoot takedowns as the fight progressed, Said timed a scramble perfectly whereby he was able to get an angle and secure a difficult submission. The way in which Said went about winning this fight can be looked at as desperation by haters, but for someone who appreciates the breadth of MMA, it truly showcases how elite Said is, given he can be extremely dangerous against average strikers and equally dangerous to non-elite grapplers. Altogether, Said is a problem for almost everyone to go against and is someone that continues to get overlooked as one of the elite prospects in the division.

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Being overlooked in the hyper-talented bantamweight division can be applied to Jonathan Martinez as well. On the surface, much of the same reasoning why Said is a problem can be stated for Martinez, given he has dangerous attributes on the feet and has proven to have effective grappling when needed. Specifically, he has a devasting left leg kick out of the southpaw position, where he can land ear-numbing kicks to the body if his opponent mirrors the southpaw stance or will land damaging outside calf kicks if his opponent stands orthodox. What makes his kicking game so effective is not only the damage he lands with but also the combination of speed and timing, meaning, the moment his opponent is vulnerable to a kick, Martinez is locked and loaded to throw that kick.

As we have seen with other kick-focused fighters such as Giga Chikadze, many opponents want to crash the distance and make the striker grapple. If done against Martinez, he has shown that taking him down is no easy task, and if taken to the mat, he can get back to his feet. The issue is that while he has checked most boxes thus far, he has not had the same level of talent faced as the likes of Said and many of the other ranked-caliber fighters. This point of contention is not “fair” for him given he can only fight who he is told to fight, but when you add this point to the fact he has been taken to the mat and he has been hit cleanly, with damage, against average to above average strikers, then the perceived ceiling of his may be a fringe ranked level. With all that said, I am a massive fan of his style and would not be shocked if he continues to evolve given his young age, and if done, he does have the striking and demonstrated grappling to see a similar rise as the aforementioned Giga Chikadze.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Early in the fight, I expect it to look like a kickboxing bout. Jonathan Martinez will be more than happy to throw his left leg kick accompanied by a down-the-barrel left hand against the unorthodox Said; and, Said will be more than happy to utilize footwork, find angles, and land powerful strikes against the somewhat hittable Martinez.

But, the moment one finds success over the other, I do expect the fighter getting the lesser end of the exchanges to shoot a takedown, and this is will Said will truly separate because if he shoots, he has more than enough offensive wrestling to get the fight to the ground and win by mauling fashion, and if Martinez shoots, Said has the demonstrated submission ability to find a finish.

All in all, this fight is Said’s to take and I do expect him to look impressive in doing so whether it be a grinding, mauling fashion on the mat for all 15 minutes or a sudden submission victory.

Pick: Said Nurmagomedov Double Chance Sub/Dec (-170)

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Said elects to employ a strike-first mentality counter to that of the traditional wrestling seen by many fighters originating from Dagestan. Pairing the style of Said against the always electrifying Silva de Andrade – 20 of 28 wins by TKO/KO – makes for this fight being the probable Fight of the Night and one you certainly do not want to miss.

Betting Odds

Said Nurmagomedov is a sizable -340 favorite over Douglas Silva de Andrade.

• Said Nurmagomedov: -340 (MyBookie)
• Douglas Silva de Andrade: +265 (MyBookie)

Breakdown

For those who have read my previous breakdowns of Umar Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, and Said Nurmagomedov, you will know I am a big fan of the fighters who originate from the region of Dagestan. The reasoning for this is these fighters seem to all have some unique aspect to their fight game with an underlying foundation of strong grappling.

Said Nurmagomedov’s unique fight aspect is perhaps one of the most unorthodox in the division, as he fights quite similar to the former featherweight contender, Zabit Magomedsharipov. The style Said uses is spin-oriented which is quite effective given his elite understanding of technique, distance, footwork, and most importantly, timing. Moreover, Said is able to throw a significant amount of spinning attacks given he has strong cardio and is extremely comfortable turning at the risk of getting taken down, knowing his strong grappling will allow him to cause a scramble, and once done, he will win the exchange. In total, Said is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has the physical skillset needed to climb the tough bantamweight division. The question to answer is if his fight intelligence will coincide with his natural talent, as landing more traditional strikes will net him a greater sustained probability of success contrary to predominately throwing spinning strikes.

While Said Nurmagomedov is a creative striker, Douglas Silva de Andrade is a power-puncher who throws with ill intentions nearly every strike. To justify this statement, long-term and short-term analyses can be easily done. For the former, Silva de Andrade has 20 of his 28 wins coming from TKO/KO; and for the latter, he had an impressive come-from-behind victory his last time out, whereby he tallied 3, yes 3, knockdowns inside of the first two rounds where the final knockdown lead to him securing a submission. Having the ability to finish the fight, at any moment, and no matter the damage he wore himself prior, is an impeccable quality to possess and one that makes him an incredibly dangerous fighter to go against.

As with many power punchers, the inherent issue is a lack of output and/or lack of strong cardio. For Silva de Andrade, both points of contention have surfaced throughout his long-tenured fight career and are a significant reason as to why he struggles to beat the elite of the elite – far from a major critique given the quality of losses Tukhugov, Font, Yan, and Murphy. Because of this struggle, I contend Silva de Andrade, with his elite power, ability to do damage with multiple limbs, and decent offensive grappler is a top 15 gatekeeper with the ability to be ranked just inside of the division.

Breakdown

The speed, footwork, and greater arsenal of technique all side with Said. With that said, Silva de Andrade is about as a live dog as just about any fighter in the division that isn’t in title-contending conversations. So, while I believe Said keeps can the distance to land long-range strikes, and then, showcases offensive wrestling – which he often foregoes – to win the bout, his opponent can certainly land a power strike, likely an overhand or check hook, to upset the highly touted Dagestan fighter.

Ultimately, I am going to side with the fighter who should be winning the output battle and overall exchanges that occur contrary to the one who likely needs a KO to secure the victory.

Bet: Nurmagomedov, sprinkle Nurmagomedov by Sub

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Betting Odds

Said Nurmagomedov is a -205 favorite with an implied win percentage of 67% against the battle-tested Cody Stamann.

• Nurmagomedov: -205
• Stamann: +164

Breakdown

Said Nurmagomedov, unrelated to Khabib, resembles the style of the potential title-contending featherweight and training partner, Zabit Magomedsharipov. To understand this style is to first, comprehend that it is a strike-first mentality, and second, not understand the striking at all. Meaning, Said’s most dangerous weapon on the feet is his unpredictability. In his last bout, Said did not have much time to showcase what he can do on the feet given a check left hook landed against the opponent that dazed him, and then, Said quickly finished him off with ground and pound. To best gauge his talent, the loss against fellow perennial ranked fighter, Raoni Barcelos, should be analyzed. In this fight, Said threw a slew of spinning attacks ranging from kicks, punches, and elbows, all with mesmerizing frequency. The spinning attacks greatly combated the pressure of Barcelos, thus enabling Said to lead the exchanges. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of his spinning mentality is the fact it can gas so many fighters, as throwing this form of attack is exhausting, but for Said, his cardio never once became an issue. Rather, his fight IQ relative to the decisions he made inside the octagon resulted in his loss to Barcelos.

In the loss to Barcelos, Said was landing a jab off of very impressive feints at an impressive rate. Even though this was the case, he was steadfast on throwing spinning attacks against an opponent who is both a high-level striker as well as a grappler. Ultimately, a spinning kick to the body of Barcelos, which did land, enabled him to grab the foot of Said to land a takedown. Although Said is very good at combating a “normal takedown”, he could not prevent the takedown once his foot was caught, and this led to him losing a very close fight. I anticipate Said learning from this, thus combating most of my concern over poor fight IQ. Furthermore, if Said faces an opponent who is average in striking or grappling, he should have little issue implementing his style given a sub-par grappler should not be able to take him down and a sub-par striker will be pieced up on the feet by him.

Stamann is a predominately wrestle-first fighter who does possess some striking skills. Perhaps his best weapon on the feet is a check left hook that has a propensity to land at an impressive rate with some serious power behind it. The problem for Stamann is that his striking is not as crisp nor dangerous as it needs to be to really worry his opponents. This lack of significant worry has led to Stamann having difficulty, at times, landing takedowns against fighters who have strong takedown defense. To Stamann’s credit, he does do a good job continually focusing on the takedown, even if his hands are having success. Once he does decide to shoot a takedown, he typically seeks a double leg which he is willing to transition into a single or high-crotch if need be. The critical facet of Stamann’s takedown game in this matchup will be keeping Said on the mat, as Stamann has had mild difficulty in keeping the fight there against opponents who are quite active on their back. Even if Stamann fails in this regard, he is truly a solid UFC veteran that has the skillsets and experience befitting that of a caliber of fighter who resembles a top 15 gatekeeper, which is by no means an insult.

Prediction

Even though Stamann does have a nice check left hook and is a very respectable wrestler inside the octagon, Said Nurmagomedov should have little difficulty in this matchup. Said’s impressive striking is faster and crisper than Stamann, and I anticipate Stamann becoming quickly frustrated with the disparity in talent on the feet. This frustration will lead to Stamann pursuing his bread and butter attribute of wrestling, but Said will likely, at worst, find himself in a defensive position against the cage stemming from an initial double-leg attempt. If in this position, I favor Said given he throws impressive downward elbows and has shown the ability to escape a wrestle-dominate position when need be. This is likely Said’s coming out party after a 15-month layoff, so be sure to capitalize on the advantageous price.

Bet: Said Nurmagomedov

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