Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov vs Douglas Silva de Andrade | UFC Vegas 58
Said Nurmagomedov (15-2; 4-1 in the UFC) will fight Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-4; 6-4 in the UFC) come UFC Vegas 58.
Said elects to employ a strike-first mentality counter to that of the traditional wrestling seen by many fighters originating from Dagestan. Pairing the style of Said against the always electrifying Silva de Andrade – 20 of 28 wins by TKO/KO – makes for this fight being the probable Fight of the Night and one you certainly do not want to miss.
Betting Odds
Said Nurmagomedov is a sizable -340 favorite over Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Breakdown
For those who have read my previous breakdowns of Umar Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, and Said Nurmagomedov, you will know I am a big fan of the fighters who originate from the region of Dagestan. The reasoning for this is these fighters seem to all have some unique aspect to their fight game with an underlying foundation of strong grappling.
Said Nurmagomedov’s unique fight aspect is perhaps one of the most unorthodox in the division, as he fights quite similar to the former featherweight contender, Zabit Magomedsharipov. The style Said uses is spin-oriented which is quite effective given his elite understanding of technique, distance, footwork, and most importantly, timing. Moreover, Said is able to throw a significant amount of spinning attacks given he has strong cardio and is extremely comfortable turning at the risk of getting taken down, knowing his strong grappling will allow him to cause a scramble, and once done, he will win the exchange. In total, Said is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has the physical skillset needed to climb the tough bantamweight division. The question to answer is if his fight intelligence will coincide with his natural talent, as landing more traditional strikes will net him a greater sustained probability of success contrary to predominately throwing spinning strikes.
While Said Nurmagomedov is a creative striker, Douglas Silva de Andrade is a power-puncher who throws with ill intentions nearly every strike. To justify this statement, long-term and short-term analyses can be easily done. For the former, Silva de Andrade has 20 of his 28 wins coming from TKO/KO; and for the latter, he had an impressive come-from-behind victory his last time out, whereby he tallied 3, yes 3, knockdowns inside of the first two rounds where the final knockdown lead to him securing a submission. Having the ability to finish the fight, at any moment, and no matter the damage he wore himself prior, is an impeccable quality to possess and one that makes him an incredibly dangerous fighter to go against.
As with many power punchers, the inherent issue is a lack of output and/or lack of strong cardio. For Silva de Andrade, both points of contention have surfaced throughout his long-tenured fight career and are a significant reason as to why he struggles to beat the elite of the elite – far from a major critique given the quality of losses Tukhugov, Font, Yan, and Murphy. Because of this struggle, I contend Silva de Andrade, with his elite power, ability to do damage with multiple limbs, and decent offensive grappler is a top 15 gatekeeper with the ability to be ranked just inside of the division.
Breakdown
The speed, footwork, and greater arsenal of technique all side with Said. With that said, Silva de Andrade is about as a live dog as just about any fighter in the division that isn’t in title-contending conversations. So, while I believe Said keeps can the distance to land long-range strikes, and then, showcases offensive wrestling – which he often foregoes – to win the bout, his opponent can certainly land a power strike, likely an overhand or check hook, to upset the highly touted Dagestan fighter.
Ultimately, I am going to side with the fighter who should be winning the output battle and overall exchanges that occur contrary to the one who likely needs a KO to secure the victory.
Bet: Nurmagomedov, sprinkle Nurmagomedov by Sub