Betting Odds

Despite coming off of a devastating knockout, Bobby Green comes in as a solid betting favorite.

• Bobby Green: (-250) (MyBookie)
• Jared Gordon: (+210) (MyBookie)

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Fight Breakdown

Although Gordon put forward a solid performance in his last bout, Bobby Green is likely a favorite due to his stylistic advantage. Gordon’s forward pressure and grindy style favors Green, who uses his elusiveness to throw off takedown attempts and counter looping shots with his sharp boxing. Green will likely look to do what he’s best at, pop off his jab and find unpredictable combinations inside the pocket.

Once the fight gets taken to the cage, however, Gordon has a massive advantage. He uses his stocky frame to glue his opponents to the fence, only letting off to release massive power shots. Green has shown himself to be vulnerable here, as his last knockout loss was largely the result of Drew Dober cutting off his movement with the fence to nail Green with a brutal left hand.

In terms of grappling, Gordon has a significant advantage. His pressuring style allows him to find his opponent’s hips with relative ease, scoring him numerous takedowns in his fights. Once he gets his opponents to the ground, Gordon’s exceptional top control and submission skills make him a dangerous threat. He has a traditional punch and pass style, however his frame allows him to put massive weight and pressure on his opponents. He often finds his opponent’s back and uses the position to wear them out and steal rounds.

Green is a capable grappler as well. He’s very scrappy and unorthodox off of his back and has shown himself to have extremely effective reversals and get-ups. He’s also dangerous in the clinch, throwing flurries of elbows and knees, as well as hooks to break off into his combinations. Gordon could be at a significant risk if he attempts to take Green down or pressure him against the fence.

Prediction and Betting Guide

This is a tough one to pick because it’s anyone’s fight if it goes three rounds. Green could win a decision by just picking Gordon apart and beating him to the punch for 15 minutes but Gordon could steal an entire round with one solid clinch exchange. They both have tested chins and solid gas tanks so it’s fairly likely that the fight will go the distance. However, if one fighter were to score a finish, my money’s on Green. Gordon’s lack of head movement and defensive responsibility will likely play well into Green’s favor, which could become detrimental as the fight goes on. For that, I’m going to say Green by decision, solely because the volume of his strikes are bound to change the fight one way or another. I’d be light on the finish because of Gordon’s toughness, but there’s always a possibility for a knockout with Bobby Green.

Bet: Green by Decision (-110) or Green by KO/TKO (+350)

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The main event bout has the potential for an explosive finish, as Blaydes, a top-ranked heavyweight known for his elite wrestling skills and devastating ground and pound, will face off against the ferocious striking power of Pavlovich, who has been making waves with a series of first-round knockout victories.

In this article, our staff members provide their predictions and analysis for this high-stakes fight. Will Blaydes leverage his wrestling prowess to neutralize Pavlovich’s striking, or will Pavlovich’s heavy hands prove to be Blaydes’ kryptonite once again? Read on to find out what our experts think.

Betting Odds

Curtis Blaydes is the favorite ahead of the UFC Vegas 71 main event.

• Sergei Pavlovich: +136 (MyBookie)
• Curtis Blaydes: -175 (MyBookie)

At these odds, a bet of $175 on Blaydes would yield a profit of $100 if he wins, while a bet of $100 on Pavlovich would yield a profit of $136 if he emerges victorious.

The odds reflect the general consensus that Blaydes has a higher probability of winning due to his wrestling skills and well-rounded abilities. However, with Pavlovich’s dangerous striking power, an upset is always a possibility, making the underdog bet an attractive option for those who believe in his knockout potential.

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

This fight will act as a very big test for both men, Pavlovich has yet to see a second round let alone a fifth in his UFC career and Blaydes is likely the best wrestler at 265 lbs. On the other hand, the one kryptonite for Blades has been the heaviest hitters who can stand their ground and counter him with power, Pavlovich has only avoided the second round due to his monstrous KO ability.

For Blaydes, he has to sell himself as a striker to Pavlovich to open up the level change. His striking has improved in droves over his last few performances, at one point being a fighter who struggled with taking strikes and keeping composure, Blaydes has looked his best over the last year, showing very good head movement and an ability to fight behind his jab and set up his right hand. His reach of 80 inches has largely made this easier, being able to stick and pull back with his right hand high to avoid the counters opposite shorter fighters like Chris Daukuas and Jairzinho Rozenstruik but Pavlovich will actually hold the advantage in reach at 84 inches.

Pavlovich is the more experienced striker, with a tad more power and accuracy. What Pavlovich does so well is he will pressure forward without overdoing his output, he can be patient when he needs to and pick his moments to explode and unleash. He will throw a sharp jab to check hook combinations and also likes to overwhelm his opponents with a barrage of overhand rights and hooks to get them ducking. When their posture breaks, he throws an uppercut down that center channel. As good as Blaydes has gotten in his striking, he is still an instinctual wrestler, and if they collide and Pavlovich gets off the harder shots, we could see Blaydes react with a level change, at which point the timing of that uppercut becomes very important and potentially fight ending.

To get the fight to the floor, Blaydes should get Pavlovich respecting his strikes, and when he comes forward, meet the hips and drive Pavlovich back. The Russian has shown impressive takedown defense thus far, albeit against far less respected wrestlers and in very little octagon time. He also tends to keep his hips in a very good position even when he is throwing shots so the drive-through on Blaydes double leg has to be point. Pavlovich has finished or been finished in the first round in every one of his UFC fights but was coming off of a five-round unanimous decision prior to that in Fight Night Global. He can go 25 minutes but it’s a step up against the level of competition that is Curtis Blaydes, therefore Blaydes should look to drag him deep into the fight, especially via wrestling exchanges. Blaydes has the most devastating elbows from the op half-guard, but it all comes back to finding that takedown safely.

At the end of the day, this is a very difficult fight that could swing either way. Blaydes has been working on his striking relentlessly and it shows but once hurt, a lot of times we see long-time wrestlers revert back to old habits. I think that even if they have competitive exchanges, Pavlovich is much more likely to hurt Blaydes, and then his ability to read positions and be so accurate with his punches can catch Blaydes trying to move in on the legs. Therefore I think it’s a good value to go with the underdog Pavlovich.

Pick: Sergei Pavlovich to win (+136)

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Michael Pounders

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride, Curtis “Razor” Blaydes has been a top 5 ranked heavyweight for years but has yet to hold the gold. Blaydes is a powerful and highly skilled wrestler, has devastating ground and pound (hence his nickname describing his elbows), and has shown recent improvements with his hands. Infamously, Blaydes has beaten every archetype of heavyweight except one: fighters with top-tier power.

Throughout his successful career, Blaydes has been able to out-wrestle and often finish athletic kickboxers, fighters who tip the scales at 260 pounds, other credentialed wrestlers, and well-rounded fighters who also have stayed atop the mountain for years. However, the 3 times Blaydes has faced elite-level power, he has lost and lost by finish. To his credit, it has truly taken the elite of the elite power to beat him – Francis Ngannou twice and Derrick Lewis once. Everyone else, Blaydes has beaten.

His typical path to victory, unsurprising given he fights out of Team Elevation, is to strike behind an intelligent jab and leg kick early in round 1. He uses those range strikes to keep opponents off of him while also giving them things to think about near their head and legs, thereby exposing what Blaydes is truly hunting: the hips. Once an opponent starts to counter strike or backpedal from his volume, they often leave their hips exposed. In an instant, Blaydes exploits the opening and explodes into a single or double-leg takedown.

Blaydes’ background is in college wrestling, where he was an NJCAA champion on the mat. Blaydes brings that same style and tenacity into the octagon. Once he gets an opponent down, the round typically ends with him on top, either because the clock hit 0:00 or Blaydes found the finish. Blaydes has incredible top pressure and smoothly advances position, typically looking for side control or mount. Once in position, “Razor” truly earns his nickname and rains heavy elbows down on his opponent. Once he starts, the only way he stops is via finish or the round ending.

Pavlovich seemingly came out of nowhere and stepped into stardom following five straight first-round knockout wins. He dropped his debut, also via RD1 knockout, and the criticism was that while the power is evident, Pavlovich is too unrefined on the feet to truly inflict damage. That criticism is still partially prevalent, Pavlovich is still unrefined on the feet but he has no issue inflicting damage despite it.

All of Pavlovich’s UFC fights have ended in the 1st round, and only 2 have gone longer than 90 seconds. He looks to devastatingly finish the fight from the opening minute. His wild style, almost windmill-like striking at times, combined with his otherworldly power has earned him a nickname among social media pundits: The Russian Francis. Upon first seeing this, I was skeptical to believe anyone could ever match the unique power and athleticism of the former UFC champion; but, with back-to-back 60-second knockouts of highly ranked opponents, that nickname is looking less like a joke and more like a prophecy.

Pavlovich’s striking is wild, his gas tank is unproven in the UFC, and he has yet to show, or need, a game plan beyond brawling. As all of those questions remained unanswered, they create doubt in the minds of gamblers and provide hope for opponents to find a path to victory. But, the one answer Pavlovich can continue to turn to is if he hits someone, they rarely get back up.

This fight should be a dominant win one way or the other. Blaydes could take Pavlovich down and should be able to finish him on the mat. Conversely, Pavlovich falls into the category of elite power puncher that has been Blaydes’ only Achilles Heel and The Russian Francis could earn his 6th straight knockout win.

In either case, I expect one of these fighters to implement their game plan early and end the fight soon after. Therefore, my best bet is u1.5 rounds at a -160. As far as a straight bet, though, I like the underdog in Pavlovich to keep Blaydes from a shot at the belt once again. And, if you’re backing Pavlovich, his best path is an early finish which also gets you a juicier line compared to his money line.

Best Bets: u1.5 (-160) and Pavlovich in round 1 (+335)

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Joe Pounders

With Francis Ngannou no longer on the UFC roster, Sergei Pavlovich is inserted as the most feared power threat currently fighting in the heavyweight division. Contenders for this position, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, were dismantled by Pavlovich in his two most recent fights, finishing both inside the first minute of the fight, thus making him the top dog when it comes to heavyweight power threat.

Knowing the quick finishing from Pavlovich is not only a possibility, but a recent reality, it comes to little surprise to know that Pavlovich fights with explosion, and when someone of his size comes forward with a blitz, very few can weather that storm. Moreover, Pavlovich has shown that the blitz does not need to happen within the first 60 seconds of the fight, as he has had some bouts where he fought patiently, and then out of almost nowhere, blitzed for a KO victory.

The style of using immense power, elite heavyweight size and strength, and a blitz-like attack have been a proven line of success, most recently by Francis Ngannou. But, with this style, there have been notable flaws once fighting an opponent who has the wherewithal to weather the first blitz, and if done, finding a second method of victory is needed – Ngannou lost to Stipe and Lewis in back-to-back fights which showed him needing additive skills to his game, and after those loses he went on a 6-fight streak of dominance. So, while the first-round finishing of Pavlovich is indeed a strong possibility, it will be interesting to see if he has learned from Francis, and has thus formed alternate skills to win outside of round one.

On paper, Blaydes’ style is the perfect style to combat the immense power threat of Pavlovich. This is because Blaydes has legitimate heavyweight size, threatening enough power to bring caution to a blitz-opponent, and most importantly, elite wrestling to shoot a takedown once the power is blitzed towards him. But, the lone style that has caused Blaydes issue is immense power, as his lone three losses were KO finishes, one by Derrick Lewis and two by Francis Ngannou. So, somewhat similarly to Pavlovich learning from the history of Ngannou, it will be interesting to see if Blaydes has learned from his previous defeats, if so, he can certainly win and contend for a title. This positive ability is formulated to the above skills, particularly highlighting his elite wrestling, as he has shown the ability to not only take down large heavyweights but also, keep them on the mat while landing slicing “Razor Blaydes” elbows. So, if he can weather the power storm, he can certainly secure a dominating victory, likely resulting from his elite wrestling.

This fight is incredibly interesting given the historical lessons each can learn from. From a predictive lens, many handicappers will likely note it will be a Pavolovich finish or a Blaydes win, and many, as myself will too, go one step further by saying it will either be a Pavolovich first-round KO (+350 price) or Blaydes win (-160 price). While the price is right on Pavolovich in Rd1, I believe the probability of the outcome is in Blaydes’ favor given he has been in the ring to learn from the historical pitfalls compared to Pavolovich needing to learn from the Francis blueprint compared to his own hurdles. Given this experience in loss accompanied by Blaydes being the more well-rounded fighter with underappreciated power in his own right, I am electing to go with him here in this fight against the most fearful opponent one could potentially bet against. Because I am going against the threat, I will go one step further and choose Blaydes ITD given his fight-ending ability on the feet, and more importantly, the ability to find a finish on the mat when Pavolovich will likely be drug into deep waters for the first time if taken to the mat.

Pick: Blaydes to win inside the distance (-110)

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Wells is 3-0 in the UFC with all three fights ending by finish in under 6 minutes, winning two by knockout and one by submission. Semelsberger is 5-2 in the UFC with two knockout wins and the rest of his fights going the distance.

They’ll go head-to-head this weekend at UFC Vegas 71.

Betting Odds

Wells and Semelsberger’s odds are even, indicating a fun and close fight.

• Wells: -110 (MyBookie)
• Semelsberger: -110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Wells is a well-rounded fighter with clear finishing ability. He fights out of one of the better, but still under-the-radar-wrestling camps in Renzo Gracie Philly (Sean Brady’s Gym). Wells began his career primarily as an explosive wrestler who used athleticism, sound technique, and raw strength to aggressively drive opponents to the mat and inflict damage on top. As he’s developed as a mixed martial artist, Wells has shown significant improvements with his striking. His striking, much like his wrestling, is steep in explosive movements and raw power. His striking technique lacks some refinement but he marries it well with his wrestling.

Specifically, like many other successful wrestle-boxers, Wells is adept at pushing forward with pressure and throwing hooks or overhand power punches with freedom, then following the momentum of those strikes into takedowns. Because the threat of his wrestling is paramount and because his striking is powerful, opponents often get caught cold early in fights, standing and watching while Wells unloads heavy blows. Additionally, while he hasn’t had to show it yet in the UFC, Wells has the cardio to continue his powerful wrestling for all 3 rounds. The issues Wells typically has comes when he can’t get an opponent down. If he can’t successfully wrestle, his powerful but basic striking can be exposed and Wells can be pieced up on the feet.

Semelsberger is a fighter with a ranked-level ceiling but hasn’t put his game all the way together yet. “Semi The Jedi” is hyper-athletic, playing Division 1 football at Alabama, and uses that athleticism well in the cage. Early in his career, Semelsberger relied solely on his natural gifts as he got into brawls and won them on the back on his edge in power, speed, and toughness. More recently, Semelsberger has refined his technique and started incorporating more straight shots in his combinations rather than wild hooks. He has shown a good chin, quicker hands, and an ability to throw combinations with more accuracy. However, he can get caught watching for the perfect shot and lose important rounds because of a lack of volume.

When Semelsberger is at his best, he is striking aggressively and with power. He also will incorporate offensive wrestling of his own, often following his power strikes much like Wells. Like his “Semi” nickname, Semelsberger can struggle to get started at times and without momentum can get being overly passive.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Semelsberger has the potential to walk through Wells with stout defensive wrestling, powerful striking, and an ability to eat heavy shots with ease. However, he has the potential to let Wells dictate pace and space, land more volume as he watches for the perfect shot, and lose valuable minutes or even rounds. This fight comes down to whether or not Semelsberger has reached his potential. I don’t think he’s there yet and I do think Wells has shown remarkable consistency in his short UFC tenure. So, I’m backing the more reliable fighter in this one.

Best Bet: Wells to win (-110 odds at MyBookie)

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Dumont who also once fought at bantamweight has called 145lbs her home since May 2021. Since inserting herself into the weight class she has gone 3-1 dispatching former title challenger Felicia Spencer while doing so. The six-time Sanda state champion and national Sanda champion is one of the most skilled strikers in the division and a solid test for the BJJ black belt Rosa.

Betting Odds

Oddsmakers are split on who deserves the nod in such a close fight. They sit as almost even going into fight week.

• Karol Rosa: -110 (BetUS)
• Norma Dumont: -115 (MyBookie)

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Fight Breakdown

Karol Rosa has tremendous boxing and jiu-jitsu on top of a slick double-leg takedown. Against a seasoned Sanda fighter like Dumont, Rosa’s biggest obstacle will be bridging that range in order to land with her hands and get in on the hips. She has a wicked powerful overhand right and straight right but should keep on her jab to set it up. She also has a good right low kick, an investment always worthy against someone as footwork dependent as Dumont.

Dumont has a time-tested strategy. She is extremely light on her toes, especially up at 145 lbs, allowing her to float in and out of range, mostly as she pleases. She will stick and move on the outside with a shifting lead low kick, and lead sidekick to the body from the southpaw. This patient tag-and-go tactic forces her opponents to take risks as the fight slips away from them, at which point Dumont switches stance to conventional and looks to land a pull counter right hand, or unexpectedly meet their blitz with a sharper cross down the middle. She will also constantly show the check left hook behind her jab so they have to respect her as they commit forward, although it’s not one of her high-percentage shots for landing.

Against someone who predominantly boxes like Rosa, this style works very well. Rosa also tends to go square in her stance sometimes as she advances which opens up that cross even cleaner from Dumont, as long as she doesn’t loop. Dumont’s two losses: Macy Chiasson and Megan Anderson both showed that a big reach advantage and aggressiveness could upset her typical work. However, Dumont and Rosa will share the same reach and height so don’t expect this to be a factor that carries over from those fights.

One of its strengths of Rosa in terms of grappling is posture. When she level changes to double, her back is as erect as possible, allowing her to kick out of sprawls or attempt a switch very quickly. It also allows her to elevate much more easily. She thrives in the top half guard where she flattens her opponents and lands hooks; often body, body, head, and then looks to knee staple the leg for the option of passing. Dumont also has solid jiu-jitsu, although her bottom game can lack urgency, meaning it’s critical she wins the takedown battle rather than the exchange on the mat. Dumont has powerful hips and base and can reverse takedowns from the clinch. She has good technical top control but will give up a lot more space than she needs to at times.

Prediction and Betting Guide

I think the key factor in this fight is Dumont’s control of distance. Her ability to maintain range and force Rosa to deal with her kicks puts Rosa in a position where she is the one who needs to take risks. That being said, it is also key that Dumont keeps her wits about her and stays patient. If she gets aggressive and clashes with Rosa, that’s when the level change is available and also when she can get clipped with the overhand at boxing range. Dumont should look to land with her power shots when Rosa presents her with the opportunities and not rush anything unless she absolutely needs to. At pick’em odds Dumont is a solid pick.

Pick: Norma Dumont to win (-112 odds at MyBookie)

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Betting Odds

Despite losing his last two, Danaa who is the more experienced of the two fighters by a large margin will be the betting favorite.

• Danna Batgerel: -149 (MyBookie)
• Brady Hiestand: +125 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Danaa currently holds a pro record of 12 wins and 4 losses. Brady Hiestand, with half the ring time at 6-2, although earning an additional two wins on The Ultimate Fighter in exhibition bouts.

Danaa will have to lean into that experience in this fight. Danaa has the power, speed, and technical striking advantages, he stands orthodox with a signature KO overhand right that is more than not followed up by a winging left hook. He is constantly showing feints and knee raises to maintain a level of pressure on his opponents and push them back. He will neglect to set up his bigger shots with his jab and has suffered an inability to reach opponents who can keep themselves behind their jab and kicks. Therefore in order to land his wider shots, Danaa would do well to start at the body or with his left inside low kick more often than he does. His affinity for headhunting is a tactical flaw, but it will pay off if his opponents are forced to back away from him and he is able to cut off the exit routes, trapping them against the cage where he can force them inside the pocket.

Brady Hiestand is constantly improving his striking game to match up with his high-level wrestling. The level of polishedness between his UFC debut and the most recent fight is substantial however he will likely still be at a deficit against Danaa in this department. One aspect of his game of particular note is an elevated kicking game that has been a focus in his last few camps, especially his lead left high kick, which comes behind a left hook setup, or a shuffle step hidden by constant stance switching. Danaa has a habit of loading up on shots and dipping to avoid punches rather than blocking, so watch for the head kick from Hiestand. On the flip side, Danaa with the faster hand speed could also time his check left hook as Hiestand does lean to his right when he throws the kick.

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Both men are good wrestlers but Danaa is more of an opportunist, latching onto body locks when an opponent spins and then riding the wave as long as he can. Hiestand is a wrestler at his core and will hunt for the shot through chain wrestling as well as instinctively react with a level change when he is hurt. This latter scenario is very likely as Hiestand is rather hittable, and Danaa has tremendous power, but it will be on the wrestling ability from Hiestand to bring him back into the fight.

Although he truly does embody the “wet blanket” effect in his ability to stay attached to the bottom fighter, Hiestand’s more glaring hole is that he will occasionally leave his neck leading positionally, and open to front chokes and guillotines. His ability to rally out of chokes and fight through is exceptional but it does result in him being swept and losing top position to fighters with lower-level wrestling games at times. This is where the experience of Danaa, knowing which grappling battles to fight, using jiu-jitsu and MMA grappling to get the reverse and get back to his feet rather than going head-on in wrestling exchanges against Hiestand.

Prediction and Betting Guide

A massive factor in this matchup is who takes the lead. Both of these men are hammers and not really nails.

Danaa needs to be the one pressing forward in order to land his more looping style of boxing, especially by getting his opponent trapped between the cage and himself. Hiestand likewise would rather shoot as he is moving forward rather than on his heels so whoever takes the center of the cage will be swaying the advantage fairly far in their favor.

I do think that in terms of style, Hiestand is much less elusive than Chris Gutierrez and Kyung Ho-Kang and will be a step easier for Danaa to find the mark on. His ability to address the takedown of Hiestand is a big question but even if Hiestand can ground the Mongolian, he has a history of losing out on damage against fighters with less firepower.

Pick: Danaa Batgerel to win (-149 odds at MyBookie)

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Yan is looking to bounce back from a recent defeat to Sean O’Malley at UFC 280. After his impressive 7-0 start in the UFC, Yan then suffered two consecutive losses to Aljamain Sterling, who currently holds the belt. Yan was disqualified for an illegal knee in their first fight and lost a close decision in their rematch. Yan is still considered one of the best strikers and finishers in the division, with 7 knockouts and 1 submission in his 18 wins.

Dvalishvili is riding an eight-fight winning streak that has propelled him to the No. 3 spot in the rankings. He is known for his relentless wrestling and cardio, setting a UFC record for most takedowns landed in a single bantamweight fight with 12 against Casey Kenney. Dvalishvili has also improved his striking and durability, earning his first knockout win in the UFC over Marlon Moraes at UFC 266.

This fight promises to be a thrilling clash of styles and wills between two elite fighters who are hungry for gold. Will Yan regain his momentum and prove he deserves another shot at Sterling? Or will Dvalishvili extend his streak? Read on for our betting odds and staff predictions for this blockbuster bantamweight bout.

• Petr Yan: -270 (MyBookie)
• Merab Dvalishvili: +204 (MyBookie)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

This is an incredibly interesting fight, the tenacious and plain meanness of Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili who is unapologetic about his control and scoring-based system. Dvalishvili is supremely conditioned, melting opponents with his work rate, but this will be his first shot at 5 rounds, which is Yan’s turf. Most likely, we will see Dvalishvili take control of the pace early on, earning the first couple of rounds, by either landing his takedowns or if unable to complete them, pushing Yan against the cage and grinding out octagon control for the majority of the five minutes. Although he has a solid straight right, he doesn’t really have the finishing power in any of his individual strikes to rival Yan’s previous opponents, he will leap into shots and his low kicks come semi-commital, more so a placeholder in order to avoid allowing any break in the pace. A lot of his punches are thrown to raise the guard and set up the level change.

Although he is constantly shooting, Dvalishvili does not have the greatest success rate against the best when it comes to takedowns. He does not get discouraged, as whether he lands or misses rarely matters as long as he stays in control. For Yan, it’s integral that he find a way to make Dvalishvili pay for missed takedowns. Yan has tremendous elbows, knees, and kicks off of clinch breaks. This is far harder when he is trapped against the cage, but if he is able to create space or reverse position for even a moment, he only has that moment to land something significant before Dvalishvili is circling around again. Knees to the body are great in terms of potentially slowing down the workhorse, and he has shown a vulnerability to the left hook, which Yan could circle him onto if this happens.

At the range, both men want the center of the octagon, for Dvailishvili it gives him the opportunity to run his opponents onto the cage and keep his striking pressure on, for Yan, it forces Dvailishvili to shoot on the backfoot which is exponentially harder. If Yan is able to press forward, he will want to walk Dvalishvili onto his left hook, switch stance and get him walking onto his right, as Yan is so good at stepping through with his combinations, to cut off the opposite side in transition. He will also want to beat down the legs of Dvalishvili as taking down the base takes away that explosive double leg, especially over his first five-round fight

If this was a three-round fight, I love Dvalishvili in this matchup. His pace is proven and unmatched, the questions appear as to whether is it sustainable for an extra two rounds. Dvalishvili does not typically do a lot of damage in his fights, and Yan absolutely does, so the other question is how diminished will either fighter be going into rounds three, four, or five. Yan is coming off three straight losses, so how desperate, or frustrated will he get if time is running out and Dvalishvili has racked up too much control time? Yan does have a slight habit of making questionable decisions with his back against the wall, throughout his pre-UFC career and of late, especially for such a technical fighter when he is in control.

The most likely scenario I can see is Dvalishvili starts strong, but takes the brunt of the damage in the exchanges and we see a shift somewhere nearing the third or fourth round. This could be enough for Yan to find that left hook, or knees and kicks and finish Dvalishvili who we have seen in trouble against some good strikers. However, as the underdog at +225, it’s also very plausible that Dvalishvili banks those first three rounds, and even if the tides do shift, earns himself 3-2 rounds on the scorecards. I like Yan’s chances over five rounds, but the value is in Dvalishvili and +225.

Best Bet: Dvalishvili to win (+225)

Michael Pounders

Well here we are again, Petr “No Mercy” Yan is favored over another top 5 ranked opponent. Throughout his entire career, Yan has been favored in every single one of his fights, most of the time with a -200 or bigger number next to his name. And, until recently, Yan has won over and over. However, “No Mercy” has dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, despite being the favorite in each fight. Yan, in his first title match against Aljo, was winning the fight but was DQ’d for a blatantly illegal knee. He rebounded with a decision win over Sandhagen 7 months later. That win put him back in a title fight against his nemeses, Aljo. Yan was stuck in a body triangle for long bouts of the fight and dropped a decision. He then was in a 3-round split decision war with Sean “Suga” O’Malley that was as entertaining as it was controversial. Still, though, Yan lost. Saturday night, Yan co-headlines another UFC card where he is a sizeable favorite.

Yan has been consistently favored in his fights because of his elite skillset, unquestioned cardio, and assassin-like demeanor. On the feet, Yan has some of the best pure boxing in the division. He hits like a truck, throws with speed, and has little to no wasted movement. Yan’s boxing is compact, powerful, and consistently effective. His footwork, stiff and plotting, has recently been under scrutiny. He tends to stand straight up in a Muay Thai stance with a high protective guard and bait strikes out of his opponents so he can counter. Because of his stance and counter-savvy approach, Yan’s movement is minimal and rigid. Being a stationary target allowed Aljo to easily access the clinch and helped Suga land even more strikes. Yan’s grappling, although he was controlled by Sterling for long bouts, is still impressive. While his footwork can be stiff, his scrambles are athletic and explosive. Yan reacts well to single and double leg shots, drops his hips in an instant, and uses his strength well to reverse position or get the fight back to the feet. He can also offensively wrestle well himself. He is skilled at timing his shots and driving through his opponent until they hit the canvas. Both when striking and wrestling Yan masterfully implements a lull and explode tacit. He waits and waits like a lioness in the grass, and then explodes with a flurry or a takedown the way the same lioness pounces on a gazelle. It is truly a sight to see when Yan is on. But, he is coming off back to back losses for the first time in his career and there are whispers that Yan has not progressed his game enough to deal with the faster, stronger, or more multi-faceted fighters atop the division.

Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili is a wild man in all of the best ways. Uniquely, Merab’s greatest weapon is his cardio. No matter the opponent, no matter the circumstance, and no matter his physical state, Merab keeps going and going and going, always. Dvalishvili is a highly skilled wrestler who constantly shoots for takedowns throughout a fight. To put it in perspective, Dvalishvili landed double digit takedowns in back to back fights in 2020. Most fighters don’t have the cardio or skillset to even attempt double digit takedowns, let alone land them. Merab’s motor is the best in the division; it’s not just cardio, it’s pressure. The criticism to make following such impressive wrestling is that in order to get double digit takedowns in a fight, Merab didn’t get a finish and didn’t hold his opponent down for long periods of time. Mat returns are remarkable and fun to watch but a more effective method of victory is to land a takedown and find a finish, something Merab has only done once in the UFC. On the feet, Dvalishvili throws heat and continues to perpetuate his wild man persona. He tends to wildly swing, attempt spinning attacks, and kick like he’s part of a kickline on stage. His striking is designed to create chaos so he can create more openings for his wrestling. And, because of his unmatched motor, Merab can get away with such explosive movements without concern of gassing out. Lastly, and most interestingly, Merab has a distinct advantage in this fight that no one on else in the division has. He is Aljo’s teammate and close friend. Aljo, the only man to beat Yan twice, has been training with Merab for months and will likely be in his corner on Saturday night. Not only will Merab get inside information on how to fight “No Mercy,” Yan will also have to deal with the mental warfare of taking on yet another Serra-Longo fighter.

Yan is the better mixed martial artist, he is far more technical on the feet, hits with more precision and power, has a strong wrestling game, and might be the only bantamweight who can match the cardio of Merab. However, Yan has been the better mixed martial artist in back-to-back fights and lost both of them. Sometimes the better fighter doesn’t win. Handicapping this fight, Yan’s goal will likely be to keep Merab moving linearly where Yan’s straight punches, up the middle knees, and push kicks will damage Dvalishvili while also deterring takedowns. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili will look to wrestle and wrestle and wrestle while mixing in a few explosive strikes. Merab’s striking defense is porous and he’s been rocked before, so Yan should be able to hurt him. But, Merab has never been finished and “The Machine” seems inhumanely persistent. I’m not betting Yan straight at this price; and, having been burned in back-to-back fights of his, will not put him in parlays either. Instead, I like a sprinkle on Yan inside the distance. Dvalishvili’s striking defense should provide opening for Yan to land clean and Yan has finishing power on the feet. Because of the minimal price difference of knockout (+280) and inside the distance (+225), I’ll hedge a bit and take Yan inside the distance even though I think knockout is the most likely way Yan finds the finish.

Best Bet: Yan to win inside the distance (+225)

Joe Pounders

Petr Yan, the former champion of the bantamweight division, is currently experiencing a slight down spell in his career given he is 0-2 over his last two fights. On the surface, it looks like he may have lost a step, but, when you dive deeper and re-watch the fights, many people in the MMA community believe he should be, at worst, 1-1 in those fights. Regardless of how you or anyone scored the fights, the skills displayed by Yan in each of those fights are still elite of the elite, and the main downfalls of his game will likely be altered to make him an even better fighter over the next coming years.

The best of Yan is someone who lets his hands go, as he possesses some of the crispest and most technical striking across the entire UFC. Parlay elite striking with well above-average grappling and easy 5-round cardio, and he is truly a well-rounded problem for any bantamweight to stand against. The issue, with having elite attributes on the feet, solid grappling, and 5-round cardio/experience, is that Yan has fallen victim with trusting himself too much in the octagon, as he is a known slow starter, often giving away round 1 to gather data for the next coming rounds. Knowing the bantamweight is littered with elite challengers, giving away a round is causally related to losing close decisions, so, I fully anticipate this weakness of his to diminish. The result will be a far more aggressive Yan than we have seen before, and if indeed the case, he has more than enough speed, precision, and ultimately, power on the feet to translate this aggression into fight-ending victory.

Merab Dvalishvili, a close friend to the bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, is simply one of my favorite fighters in the UFC. I reference my natural affinity for him not because I am rooting for him against Yan in this particular fight, but to set the stage for his skill breakdown, as it will sound like a boring “neck-beard” style, but in fact, is one of the most electrifying and entertaining styles out there.

Getting into Merab’s traits, he is likely the most relentless wrestlers in the entire UFC. Relentless is the key word here, as he weaponizes his elite of elite cardio accompanied by solid wrestling to put on a pace and pressure through takedown after takedown to secure wins. This may sound like a boring, grind’em-out style, but I assure you that Merab wrestles with a youthful exuberance that is simply exciting to watch.

While the relentless shots will indeed be here in this fight, the main issue he will have is the same that he had in a win against Jose Aldo last fight, that is, difficulty with securing a takedown – Merab was 0/16 against Aldo. The benefit for Merab is that while he failed on securing Aldo to the mat, he still managed to find success in the clinch and ultimately win a decisive victory. But, against Yan, Merab may find it more difficult to keep the clinch secured, and if indeed the case, Merab’s striking will likely fall victim to the more technical and crisp of Yan’s.

Merab is extremely underrated, even after beating a hyper-dangerous, future HOF’er in Jose Aldo. Because of this, I would not be shocked whatsoever if he continues to surprise and beat an opponent who his close friend and training partner, Aljamain Sterling, just beat. But, when it comes to forecasting the bout, I expect Yan to put on a master class here.

My reasoning for this is that he has the takedown defense, Muay Thai clinch game, and most importantly, cardio, to combat what Merab does best. Once combated in the grappling, Yan is leaps and bounds ahead of Merab on the feet, given Merab leaves himself vulnerable to get clipped as he makes his way in to close the distance, and Yan is one of the best fighters at countering lunging style attacks. As such, I expect Yan to land enough clean, powerful strikes to greatly damage Merab, and, has the confidence in his skills needed to continue his attack to find the finish.

Best Bet: Yan by TKO/KO (+260)

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Said Nurmagmodedov (17-2; 6-1 in the UFC) is riding a 4-fight win streak, having beat fringe ranked opponents in 3 of those 4 fights. His opponent here, Jonathan Martinez (17-4; 8-3 in the UFC) is also riding a 4-fight win streak coming into his fight, and, with significant confidence given his devastating finish over UFC veteran and fan favorite, Cub Swanson.

Both Said and Martinez are overlooked, dangerous fighters who have fight-ending capabilities wherever the fight goes, making this bout a likely candidate for FOTN and one where the winner certainly will get a ranked opponent next.

Said Nurmagomedov opened around a -200 favorite but has since climbed to -260 against Jonathan Martinez.

• Said Nurmagomedov: -260 (MyBookie)
• Jonathan Martinez: +200 (MyBookie)

Said Nurmagomedov, unrelated but friends to Khabib, resembles the style of the potential title-contending featherweight and training partner, Zabit Magomedsharipov. To understand this style is to first, comprehend that it is a strike-first mentality, and second, not understand the striking at all. Meaning, Said’s most dangerous weapon on the feet is his unpredictability.

Diving a bit deeper into the unorthodox striking of Said, he typically uses a heavy amount of kicks to all levels of his opponent as well as a plethora of spin-oriented attacks which is quite effective given his elite understanding of technique, distance, footwork, and most importantly, timing. Moreover, Said is able to throw a significant amount of spinning attacks given he has strong cardio and is extremely comfortable turning at the risk of getting taken down, knowing his strong grappling will allow him to cause a scramble, and once done, he will win the exchange.

This ability to win scrambles and implement effective grappling was needed in his last fight against the very underrated talent of Saidyokub Kakhramonov. In that fight, Said was got taken to the mat 5 times on 12 attempts and was looking like he was on his way to losing against the well-rounded and strong wrestling opponent of Kakhramonov. But, knowing his opponent would continue to shoot takedowns as the fight progressed, Said timed a scramble perfectly whereby he was able to get an angle and secure a difficult submission. The way in which Said went about winning this fight can be looked at as desperation by haters, but for someone who appreciates the breadth of MMA, it truly showcases how elite Said is, given he can be extremely dangerous against average strikers and equally dangerous to non-elite grapplers. Altogether, Said is a problem for almost everyone to go against and is someone that continues to get overlooked as one of the elite prospects in the division.

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Being overlooked in the hyper-talented bantamweight division can be applied to Jonathan Martinez as well. On the surface, much of the same reasoning why Said is a problem can be stated for Martinez, given he has dangerous attributes on the feet and has proven to have effective grappling when needed. Specifically, he has a devasting left leg kick out of the southpaw position, where he can land ear-numbing kicks to the body if his opponent mirrors the southpaw stance or will land damaging outside calf kicks if his opponent stands orthodox. What makes his kicking game so effective is not only the damage he lands with but also the combination of speed and timing, meaning, the moment his opponent is vulnerable to a kick, Martinez is locked and loaded to throw that kick.

As we have seen with other kick-focused fighters such as Giga Chikadze, many opponents want to crash the distance and make the striker grapple. If done against Martinez, he has shown that taking him down is no easy task, and if taken to the mat, he can get back to his feet. The issue is that while he has checked most boxes thus far, he has not had the same level of talent faced as the likes of Said and many of the other ranked-caliber fighters. This point of contention is not “fair” for him given he can only fight who he is told to fight, but when you add this point to the fact he has been taken to the mat and he has been hit cleanly, with damage, against average to above average strikers, then the perceived ceiling of his may be a fringe ranked level. With all that said, I am a massive fan of his style and would not be shocked if he continues to evolve given his young age, and if done, he does have the striking and demonstrated grappling to see a similar rise as the aforementioned Giga Chikadze.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Early in the fight, I expect it to look like a kickboxing bout. Jonathan Martinez will be more than happy to throw his left leg kick accompanied by a down-the-barrel left hand against the unorthodox Said; and, Said will be more than happy to utilize footwork, find angles, and land powerful strikes against the somewhat hittable Martinez.

But, the moment one finds success over the other, I do expect the fighter getting the lesser end of the exchanges to shoot a takedown, and this is will Said will truly separate because if he shoots, he has more than enough offensive wrestling to get the fight to the ground and win by mauling fashion, and if Martinez shoots, Said has the demonstrated submission ability to find a finish.

All in all, this fight is Said’s to take and I do expect him to look impressive in doing so whether it be a grinding, mauling fashion on the mat for all 15 minutes or a sudden submission victory.

Pick: Said Nurmagomedov Double Chance Sub/Dec (-170)

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The Argentinian Canetti is coming off of two massive finishes over Randy Costa and Kris Mountinho, stopping each within one round with his explosive and powerful style.

His opponent, Bautista who hails from Nevada has only two blots on his otherwise clean winning record, a loss to Cory Sandhagen in his UFC debut and a KO loss to Trevin Jones in a fight he was beforehand winning.

Bautista is coming off three straight victories since a unanimous decision over Jay Perrin followed by two submissions over Brian Kelleher and Benito Lopez respectively.

Betting Odds

Guido Canetti will find himself the underdog against the much younger Bautista.

• Guido Canetti: +600 (MyBookie)
• Mario Bautista: -1000 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Guido Canetti has a very specific style. He stands southpaw, in a wide stance much akin to karate, but fires his strikes with weight behind all of it. He always wants to work from the outside, firing low kicks and body kicks both round and straight to chip away at his opponent’s frame and get a read on their distance. He is particularly good at digging his shin into the leg as his opponents try to advance on him with multiple low kicks. He will then look to circle and reset if they do gain any ground, and in a perfect world, what he wants to do is fire and reset, building on that damage enough to draw their guard down and then raise the target of his kicks and punches. Although he is primarily a kicker, he has powerful blitzing punches, as he bursts into range.

However as dangerous as he is, there is a reason he is such a heavy underdog. He is extremely explosive and throws everything behind every one of his shots, which is difficult to sustain over an entire fight. His two most recent wins have come within one round. Those who have beaten him, have found success if they are able to cut an angle and pressure him to the cage, taking away that space he needs to kick.

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Mario Bautista is a very well-rounded individual, he has good kickboxing at range and is very good at returning counters on almost every one of his opponent’s kick attempts, Although shot for shot, Canetti has more power, Bautista has a history of also successfully punishing his opponent’s legs. The biggest difference is that Bautista may be one of the very best at unloading fast combinations when his opponent hits the fence. He is great at mixing his shots between the body and head but also one of his favorites is to start southpaw, directing his opponent to his left to escape, stepping over in a stance switch, and ripping three to four lightning-fast hooks to the body. His hand speed often results in a shelled-up guard from his opponents, prompting a clear level change if he wants to take it.

Canetti has shown himself a submission threat recently, with his scrambling back take and choke over Costa. That being said, Bautista is the more educated grappler, he is tremendous in his ability to find the mount quickly from so many positions, and constantly readjust to maintain it. From there he will slide into a high mount to attack arms and triangles.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Canetti is dangerous in the opening minutes, and he is dangerous at kicking range. What makes Bautista so scary is that recently he has become a very quick finisher but is traditionally known as a fighter who gets better as time goes on. If he can get past those kicks and drag Canetti further into the fight, I do see his momentum only snowballing. On the inside, Canetti’s kryptonite has always been those who can suffocate him against the fence or potentially on the mat, and those two specific things are his best weapons of Bautista. I think that his body hooks are well used to sap the explosiveness of Canetti, and I think ultimately the boxing and pressure will eventually put Canetti on the fence taking shots and opening him up to takedowns.

At -1000 Bautista is not an appealing bet. For those who do want to use him, he is better as a parlay booster or Bautista by submission sits at -107 currently. Four of Canetti’s six losses have come via submission and three of those by rear naked choke. Although Bautista does his best work in the mount, he could very well take the back if Canetti tries to muscle out from the bottom and Bautista floats over.

Pick: Mario Bautista by submission (-107)

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He takes on one of the more memorable personalities and nicknames from 2022’s Dana White’s Contender Series: Anton “The Pleasure Man” Turkalj. Turkalj is 8-1 as a professional, earning his first loss in his debut to uber-prospect Jailton Almeida. Beyond his sole loss, Turkalj has 5 knockouts, 2 submissions, and 1 decision win.

The odds for this bout are identical, making it a true pick’em fight.

• Vitor Petrino: -110 (MyBookie)
• Anton Turkalj: -110 (MyBookie)

Petrino as dangerous as he is aggressive in the cage. He is a big and well-built light heavyweight who goes all out from the opening seconds. Petrino, on the feet, swings from his ankles and hits hard. When he connects, announcers and coaches can hear the impact from ringside. But, because of his big swings, when he misses, he overextends, hits a lot of air, and can get himself in a vulnerable position.

Because of his natural athleticism, when he has the energy, he can quickly get out of bad positions and even counter with power from odd angles. When his energy depletes, a common occurrence in the rare fights that exited the first round, Petrino still swings just as big but his movement and reactions are slower which makes him getting into bad positions even more dangerous.

Petrino rarely looks to wrestle himself, much preferring a stand-up brawl where his size, speed, athleticism, and power propel him to a flashy finish; but, in fights where he’s been forced to grapple, Petrino’s strength proved to be a legitimate path out of bad positions. On DWCS, Petrino was taken down but was able to reverse position through sheer power. Then, his opponent nearly secured a submission from his back but Petrino, again using natural strength, picked up his opponent and slammed him to the canvas to break the hold. After that wild exchange, Petrino was gassed and nearly finished but rallied to find his own finish later in the fight.

As long as Petrino has the cardio and wherewithal to remain to stand, he’ll be dangerous. But, his explosive movements, limited skillset, and questionable cardio make each fight more and more challenging the longer it lasts.

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Turkalj is a highly confident, boisterous, and entertaining fighter. He likes to brawl on the feet but does his best work in the clinch where he can land heavy knees and transition to the back of his opponent. When he is striking, Turkalj looks to put on a show. He swings big, sometimes throws athletic spinning attacks, and looks to end the fight in emphatic fashion.

However, he moves linearly, misses his target when he overswings, and leaves himself with an exposed chin on the centerline often. Turkalj ate clean shots in his DWCS fight but absorbed them well and rallied for his own finish. While that Homer Simpson strategy might work for now, while he’s still young, Turkalj will need to mind his Ps and Qs more closely in the cage.

Turkalj is at his best in the clinch. He is big for the division, has long limbs, and knows how to find openings in narrow spaces for elbows and knees. Turkalj is adept at holding fighters against the cage, landing dirty Muay Thai strikes, and then can take the back. Once on the back, Turkalj has a nasty rear-naked choke. When he’s striking, Turkalj is putting on a show; but, when he grapples, Turkalj tends to cash a bonus check.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Both men are exciting fighters who have the tendency to aggressively hunt finishes but either have poor cardio or poor defense themselves. That spells a finish to me. Petrino should have the edge on the feet and Turkalj is hittable. Meanwhile, Turkalj should have the edge in grappling and Petrino gasses out quickly.

I think the most likely outcome is Turkalj surviving the first few minutes of a brawl, forcing a clinch against the cage, and then taking the back of an exhausted Petrino for a submission win.

But, given the +1209 price tag, my best bet is a simple under 2.5 rounds. Both men can finish it quickly and neither man seems concerned with defense or a long fight.

Best Bet: Fight lasts under 2.5 rounds (-120 odds at MyBookie)

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Tyson Nam is remarkably 39 years old in a division that is difficult for many to make, especially at an advanced age. Nam’s UFC record is 3-3 with 3 knockout wins and 3 decision losses.

Silva opened as a -160 favorite but has quickly grown to nearly a 2:1 favorite as money has poured in on his side.

• Bruno Silva: -190 (MyBookie)
• Tyson Nam: +150 (MyBookie)

Silva began his career with an unfortunate no-contest and then followed it up with back-to-back losses against now-ranked fighters. Then, in 2021, Silva finally parlayed his talent into a victory. He started to gain momentum, opened some eyes in the division, and got me, personally, really excited about his ceiling. But, then Silva took a two-year layoff and some of the shine around him wore off.

Still, though, his talent is undeniable. Silva is a hyper-aggressive striker who carries deceptive power, has a slick submission game, and has the wrestling chops to get the fight to the mat if he wants. Silva trains closely with Henry Cejudo and some of Triple C’s stylistic tendencies are apparent in the Brazilian.

Just like his coach, Silva fights with some dog in him – he is unafraid of a firefight and uses his toughness and well-rounded game to pressure opponents early without fear of the response on the other side. Silva tends to stand with a wide stance and a low center of gravity which he uses to generate power in his hands and explosion in his wrestling. He bobs and weaves well into the pocket where he unloads heavy hooks to the body and a cracking overhand right. Because he throws with such aggression, early in his career, Silva struggled against technical fighters with quick lateral movement. His most recent two wins were against more linear strikers whom Silva could trap and then tee off against.

Silva also has strong wrestling which he often uses after he throws his big combinations. Like many other high-level power strikers, Silva uses the momentum of his strikes to propel him into takedowns. Then, once on the mat, “Bulldog” immediately looks to take the back and secure a choke. He is all aggression all the time which has resulted in exciting finishes.

However, because of his style, Silva can gas himself out and start swinging at air if an opponent survives the early onslaught. He’s still growing, despite being 32, and is in the perfect camp for his division. It’s possible that the best version of Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, one with power striking and wrestling combined intelligently, still hasn’t stepped foot in the cage.

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Nam needs to catch lightning in a bottle to win fights. He is a well-rounded and counter-savvy striker with real power but tends to head hunt too often and has long bouts of inactivity in the cage. He plods forward, struggles against speed, moves linearly with a wide base, is susceptible to leg kicks, and does not have much more than a right hand on the feet. But, that right hand really is deadly.

At nearly 40 years old, the Nam we know is likely the Nam we’ll continue to get. He will rarely move backward in the cage and look to absorb punishment while he waits for a perfect opening. If he finds that perfect shot, he tends to turn the lights out. If not, Nam’s toughness but low volume allow him to stay alive for 3 rounds but lose decisions.

In all three of his losses, Nam was outlanded at around a 1.5:1 pace. In the flyweight division that is rooted in speed, cardio, volume, and pressure, a 1.5:1 or 2:1 strike differential is massive.

Prediction and Betting Guide

Nam’s path to victory, as evidenced by all three of his UFC wins coming by 1st or 2nd round knockout, is a quick finish. He typically needs an over-aggressive fighter to carelessly rush in so that Nam can counter with a heavy cross. Beyond that specific situation, Nam typically struggles.

Because of Silva’s layoff and tendency to hunt finishes himself, I worry about putting him in parlays; he could get caught. But, I am confident that Silva is the better fighter. He’ll be faster, more varied, have better pressure, is the better wrestler, and can snatch a submission as well. Nam has the edge in power, but not by much.

I like Silva to find his third finish in a row, likely via sub in rounds 2 or 3. But, given the odds still being under -200, my best bet is on him just to win.

Best Bet: Silva to win (-190 at MyBookie)

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