UFC Fight Night 201: Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot prediction, odds, preview

Unranked heavyweights are set to go at it when Parker Porter (12-6) takes on Alan Baudot (8-2). Porter, currently on a two-fight win streak, will likely get a ranked fight if he secures the victory in this matchup; meanwhile, Baudot will look to earn his first UFC win, thus mitigating the concern of potentially getting cut by the organization. Given each man has a lot to gain and lose in this fight, the intensity should be quite high the moment the octagon doors close!

Odds

Both men have been sizable dogs in their last two UFC fights. Given Porter has cashed as a dog, it is not surprising he is opening up as the favorite. What is somewhat surprising is the number on Porter being -250 against Baudot.

• Porter: -265
• Baudot: +215

Breakdown

Porter has done well of late inside the octagon when analyzed strictly through a win vs. loss standpoint; however, expanding success to encapsulate the quality of performance results in the belief that Porter will need to progress quickly if he seeks to crack the rankings. From a positive perspective, the progression in skills has been seen in the short-run, as Parker’s best performance ensued in his last bout against Chase Sherman. Here, Porter showcased a well-rounded game that predominately used a press-style that led to him attempting several clinch-style takedown attempts over the 15-minute affair. Although Porter showed skills expanding beyond the traditional heavyweight approach of one-punch knockout, the issue, for him, is that he could not get the finish over an opponent who has been quite unimpressive, to say the least. Moving forward, Porter will need to find a path to victory that combines his pressure style with some form of finishing threat for a chance to climb up the heavyweight division.

Baudot, never having gone to a judge’s scorecard throughout his ten professional fights, has faltered in each of his UFC fights. Although being 0-2 is a concern, the bigger issue for Baudot is that he has looked fairly good in those fights, particularly in his last matchup. The reason why looking decent in a loss is a concern for Baudot is due to the reasoning beyond the loss – first, he gassed quickly, and second, he did not handle getting hit well at all. Given Baudot is a heavyweight that has an athletic frame, cardio is a fixable issue if he utilizes better pace and preparation. On the other hand, not handling pressure and getting hit is a significant concern and one that likely won’t change for Baudot unless he can ensure the fight stays at the range and pace that best suits him. I anticipate Baudot doing his best to incorporate movement and length to keep his opponent at bay, however, in the fight, it is inevitable his opponent will hit him, and once done, Baudot has shown to fold quite quickly and without any pushback.

Prediction

I foresee Baudot looking quite good early given the movement he will employ against the hittable Porter. If Baudot cannot get the early finish, the momentum of the fight should turn to Porter’s favor come the end of the first round, and once this momentum changes, I expect Porter to ride it all the way to a victory. His pressure, well-rounded style, should make the matchup into a gritty fight, and this style of fight is one that Baudot has not shown to handle well. For this reason, I expect Porter to secure the victory, and given Porter could not finish Sherman in his last bout, Porter will likely get the victory via the judges’ scorecards.

Bet: Porter by decision