Jailton Almeida – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com UFC news, predictions, results Fri, 03 Nov 2023 05:40:58 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/thebodylockmma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/cropped-TBL-Logo-Black.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Jailton Almeida – The Body Lock https://thebodylockmma.com 32 32 130349868 Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis predictions & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/jailton-almeida-vs-derrick-lewis-predictions-odds-ufc-fight-night-231/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/jailton-almeida-vs-derrick-lewis-predictions-odds-ufc-fight-night-231/#respond Fri, 03 Nov 2023 05:40:55 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=46240 Jailton Almeida faces off with Derrick Lewis in the UFC Fight Night 231 heavyweight main event in Brazil. Read our predictions, breakdowns, betting odds, and more.

The post Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis predictions & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

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UFC action returns this weekend with UFC Fight Night 231 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The headline clash between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis is shaping up to be a big one for the local crowd.

Almeida, ranked #9, is set to face off against #10 ranked former title challenger Derrick Lewis in a five-round heavyweight main event. Almeida’s on an impressive six-fight win streak now and looks to continue his dominance in the division this weekend.

Read on for our Almeida vs Lewis fight predictions, breakdown, betting odds, picks and more.

  • How to watch: Watch every fight live this weekend on ESPN+
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Almeida vs. Lewis Betting Odds

Derrick Lewis will enter the Octagon at UFC Fight Night 231 as a heavy underdog with odds of +375 up against Jailton Almeida who can be found at -550.

  • Jailton Almeida: -550 (BetUS)
  • Derrick Lewis: +375 (BetUS)

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Almeida vs. Lewis Fight Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jailton Almeida is a problem for anyone in the heavyweight division, but he does have a predictable approach that is very tried and true. In almost all of his fights he comes in with a left front kick high that forces his opponent’s weight back and exposes the hips and by extension the blast double that always follows. He drives the takedown into the cage, where he elevates and finishes, forcing his opponent to expose the back with his high passing game or mounting and beating them up with ground and pound until they give up the back anyway.

Derrick Lewis and Jailton Almeida are similar in height and reach but it is notable that while Lewis is one of the larger heavyweights in the division, Almeida spent a significant time in his career as low as welterweight. Lewis has also become known for his ability to explode and power his way from bottom position back to standing against arguably truer heavyweights than Almeida, who even still shifts between heavyweight and light heavyweight at times. It is likely that Almeida will have to consistently shoot and get mat returns much more than his previous opponents, and it’s whether he gets discouraged by this or is able to maintain the cycle and break down Lewis’ gas tank that could determine the outcome.

Keeping Lewis on the fence is a strong way of keeping contact when Lewis does work his way up so that Almeida can drop from the clinch and reshoot without giving Lewis the space to circle away or land his incredible power at range. Minimizing the opportunities by taking away this space is paramount as Lewis has shown fans that every second of the fight could be a potential KO sequence, even down to the fifth round.

The predictability of the kick to takedown combo of Almeida would lead me to believe that Lewis will be sitting back for the counter throughout the fight. He does a good job of finding the chin, and as he showed against another predictable grappler in Curtis Blaydes, he will punish level changes that are not set up with that slick uppercut. One of the ways in which Almeida can work effectively would be to mix up his targets, he is not the cleanest striker but he is explosive and fast, and while he favors the front kick high, it would serve him well to go to the body. Lewis has been susceptible to the mid section in the past, and the combination of body work and chain wrestling in conjunction is another way to wear him down.

I expect Almeida to win as long as he maintains his mental composure. Lewis is going to be a more experienced and more powerful opponent than Almeida has typically faced. If he is able to work his way out of positions, especially with his mass and presence it could be very disheartening for Almeida. Likewise, feeling the power of Lewis could very well be a different feeling, but if he sticks to his game and keeps moving and forcing Lewis to deal with his takedowns I do think Almeida has the skills to win. Considering the history of these two its difficult to see the fight going the distance as backed up by the -3000 odds. The big question is whether to pick Almeida by KO/TKO via ground and pound or to sink in a submission, but the combination of ground and pound before a submission is probably the most likely.

Pick: Jailton Almeida to win via submission (-125)

Michael Pounders

Self-proclaimed “Brazilian Khabib,” Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida is undefeated since joining the UFC in 2022. All 5 of his fights have ended in rounds 1 or 2 and all have featured his impressive wrestling and grappling skillset. Arguably undersized for the heavyweight division- Almeida has fought at 205 in the past- “Malhadinho” uses his hyper-athleticism, quick shot entries, and suffocating top game to get the fight down to the mat quickly and dominate once he does. While Almeida can strike enough to survive on the feet, the higher he climbs in the rankings, the more vulnerable he becomes in striking battles. His footwork, guard, and combinations are all visually impressive- seeing someone of his size move the way he can is always impressive- but concerningly basic. The longer he stands, the more danger he is in. Fortunately for Almeida fans, he knows what he does well and rarely wastes much time implementing his game plan. Almeida stands only as long as it takes to find an opening for a takedown attempt. The instant he sees exposed hips or an ankle, Almeida shoots with lightning fast movement and gets the fight down. The only slight concern in Almeida’s entries is that he can sometimes shoot from too far away and leave himself exposed to catch something coming in as he shoots. Beyond that, his wrestling is elite. More impressively, though, is what Almeida does once he gets the mat, and the reason he likens himself to “The Eagle.” Almeida uses a proven method of handcuffing his opponent while grape vining legs to completely control his foe. Both of these strategies take an exceptional level of skill and strength to successfully apply which is why, despite the proven success, not all fighters are able to simultaneously control the wrists and legs. Almeida can and does. Once he gets ahold of the wrist and legs it’s only a matter of time before he sets up a submission or gets to mount and starts raining down hammer fists. Most of his opponents will have to play the child’s game, the floor is lava, if they want to find a way to beat the 32-year-old phenom turned contender.

Derick “The Black Beast” Lewis, now 38, showed he still has some tricks up his sleeve with a flying knee into punches knockout to end his last fight in :33. Lewis has historically, and accurately, been touted for his insane power, but the MMA community seems to be coming around on his speed and intelligence in the cage as well. Lewis has always carried bricks in his gloves and can end the fight in an instant. But, the way in which he finds his power shots is uniquely his own. Lewis is willing to “swang and bang” has he’s famously said, trading shots in the pocket until someone drops. He’s been willing to play opossum, baiting his opponent into over-extending so Lewis can counter with his own fight ending shot. He’s been willing to look for that one perfect shot, sacrificing rounds due to inactivity, to finally land his own uppercut from hell. And, most recently, Lewis was willing to sprint into a flying knee to start a fight. These choices should be seen less as antics and more as bold strategies. In each case, Lewis identified a path to victory and successfully implemented a winning game plan. However, the “bold” aspect of those strategies also needs to be analyzed. Because, when his plan fails, it tends to fail just as emphatically as it wows when it succeeds. His chin is starting to waiver after nearly a decade of UFC heavyweight fights and he seems to have hit his ceiling in the division. Additionally, the UFC heavyweight division seems to have passed him by in style and physique. Fighters are coming in lighter than ever before and relying on speed, an advantage Lewis often has over “old school fighters, and a full arsenal of weapons. In fights where Lewis knows the fight will likely be power vs power, he often has the edge in speed, athleticism, and game plan. But, against fighters who are more dynamic and varied, Lewis has struggled to win consistently.

This fight boils down to speed and fight IQ. Lewis, especially recently, has won fights on the back of his quick-twitch power. The power of the most decorated knockout artist is evident; but, the way he implements his power, through a deceptively fast strike, is what separates Lewis from other plodding power punchers. All 4 of his most recent wins, dating back to 2020, have come from an exciting and unexpected power shot that caught his opponent off guard and dropped him. Also, in all 4 of those fights, Lewis was the faster striker. Outside of one, in recent fights where Lewis did not have the speed advantage, he’s lost. Almeida will be the faster and far more athletic fighter in this fight, taking away Lewis’ relatively unrecognized x-factor. However, Lewis still has his craftiness. His crafty game plan was on full display in his last fight where Lewis went full Masvidal and landed a flying knee to start the fight. While he has a dry, understated, and often mimicked personality that sometimes leads people to overlook Lewis’ fight IQ, the success of his crafty and strategic antics speak for themselves. So, if Almeida doesn’t mind his P’s and Q’s, Lewis may be able to land something shocking. With all the credit given to Lewis’s power, speed, and fight IQ, I still confidently expect Almeida to win. Almeida’s athleticism, relentless wrestling, suffocating top game, and submission prowess all spell problems for “The Black Beast.” I expect Almeida to land a takedown after a few minutes of careful sparring; and, even if Lewis can get back to his feet using his patented “just get up” technique, I expect Almeida to be able to mat return the veteran. Look for Almeida to find the finish late in round 1 or early in round 2. I wouldn’t mind a play on both to cover my bases, but my best bet is Almeida to win in round 1.

Best Bet: Almeida to win in round 1 (-120)

Joe Pounders

Jailton Almeida, coined as the “Brazilian Khabib”, is a highly touted prospect with championship aspirations in the near future. Perhaps all that is needed to be known is he lives up to the “Brazilian Khabib” moniker when understanding the degree of talent Almeida coupled with how he fights, as he has high-end attributes with an unrelenting elite grappling attack, quite unique for the heavyweight division.

Heavyweight grapplers have had up-and-down moments as the style, as with any style, is more dangerous at the most powerful division of heavyweight compared to lower weight classes. A noteworthy case study is Sergey Spivak, as he looked sensational against Derrick Lewis, but in his last fight, failed to implement his bread and butter of wrestling and looked a tier below Ciryl Gane. The lesson of Spivak is twofold: one, wrestling can take you very far in the heavyweight division; and two, a more well-rounded attack and/or twitchier elite traits are needed to propel you into title contention.

When looking at Jailton Almeida, the wrestling game advancing him to top 10 status is apparent. The question then looms is if he has the striking game and/or special traits to advance him even further. For both, I say yes. In the striking department, Almeida moves with quickness as he comes in far lighter than his opponent come fight night. This quickness allows him to enter range, throw nice down-the-barrel punches, and either exit or chain his striking into wrestling. While the benefit of being a lighter heavyweight is quickness, the often inherent detriment, particularly for a grappler, is failure to physically dominate once a grappling opportunity surfaces against high-end competition; but for Almeida, his “special” is that he has an unnatural amount of strength combined with elite technique to successfully grapple bigger opponents. Because of this, I do believe he has title contention destined for his future.

Playing spoiler to perceived destiny is something Derrick Lewis is built for. His natural strength, large amount of experience, and insane power makes him a dangerous test for any up-and-coming fighter to pass. Moreover, the demonstrated ability to land perfectly timed shots, particularly against grapplers, makes him a very dangerous test for Almeida here.

Landing a perfect power shot is often the gameplan of Derrick Lewis, and to best do so he needs to keep the fight on the feet. The problem is that he looked lost last time fighting a sound grappler of Spivak, and Jailton Almedia is a faster, more explosive version of him. At this stage of his career, having quicker reactions to defend takedown attempts and/or develop additional skills to get up off the back if taken to the mat has likely passed Lewis by, so he will need to find a finish early here to negate any concern of getting taken to the mat.

Derrick Lewis is certainly an enigma come fight night. At times, he will come in heavy, and other times will try to shed weight to be a faster version of himself. Moreover, there have been instances of recent note where he looks to be perhaps over the hill, but then he will go out, as he did in his last fight, and showcase he still has plenty left in the tank. Regardless of the Lewis we get here, I am comfortable backing Almeida as his speed and technique, particularly with timing powerful takedown attempts, will be too much for Lewis to handle, and once on the mat, the discrepancy of Almeida’s top game versus Lewis’s bottom defense is far too wide for Almeida not to find a finish.

Betting Almeida by a finish is priced too high to play, because of this, I will choose him by round 1/2 submission because Almeida may be cautious early given Lewis has shown to time power shots quite well, but once the inevitable takedown occurs, the submission game of Almeida will be too much for Lewis to defend.

Bet: Almeida by Round 1/2 Submission

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UFC on ABC 4 Predictions: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/ufc-on-abc-4-predictions-jairzinho-rozenstruik-vs-jailton-almeida/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/ufc-on-abc-4-predictions-jairzinho-rozenstruik-vs-jailton-almeida/#respond Sat, 13 May 2023 00:06:47 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=44127 This Saturday, Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, will erupt as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida lock horns in a UFC Fight Night main event....

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This Saturday, Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, will erupt as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida lock horns in a UFC Fight Night main event.

Rozenstruik, the #9 ranked contender, is an explosive striker with a knack for knockouts. Opposite him, Almeida, the #12 ranked contender and a Dana White’s Contender Series signee, is a rising UFC star with an undefeated record in the Octagon.

So, while you’re here, why not sign up at BetUS and get a sign-up bonus worth up to $2,500?

You’ll be able to put our predictions to the test this week as our team has put their MMA expertise to work, dissecting this fight from every angle to provide you with the most informed predictions. And we’ve done the same for other key UFC on ABC 4 bouts:

Whether you’re a seasoned MMA fan or just testing the waters, this is a fight card you don’t want to miss.

Betting Odds

Jailton Almeida is a huge betting favorite at odds of -550 with popular bookmaker BetUS. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a heavy underdog with current odds of +375 before the UFC on ABC 4 main event.

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik: +375 (BetUS)
  • Jailton Almeida: -550 (BetUS)

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jairzinho Rozenstruik can knock out any man on the planet if he lands flush. He is a decorated kickboxer with accurate and deadly striking. Normally, he stands in a short stance, with small twitchy movements. He will take control and maintain the center of the octagon, pressing his opponent with single shots to draw out a reaction. He then looks to land a bigger counter, or combination moving forward.

He has excellent timing on his jumping knee, as well as his overhand right or right hook. He will throw the latter every time he catches a kick on his left side and it is devastating. The other technique to watch out for is his leaping left hook, however, he tends to drag his rear leg very closely keeping his stance short which presents a perfect opportunity for his opponents to time and execute a counter takedown.

Jailton Almeida will be looking to do just this, although he usually shoots on the front foot rather than as a counter. Almeida almost immediately looks to threaten his opponents with big dramatic movements and strikes to get them backing up to the cage at which point he hits the double leg attempt.

Against the cage, he locks his hands and elevates into a slam, and sticks to his opponents like glue. He is great at riding in top position, allowing his opponents just enough space to buck and try to escape, or give up their back without getting shucked off. He likes to grapevine the legs from mount or keep a tight back mount.

For the most part, Almeida will always look to attack submissions first, but if unsuccessful, posturing up and hitting very patient and accurate ground and pound as a second option. He will pick his shots but land slicing elbows through the guard. One of his favorite tactics is getting head and arm position from the back and then allowing his opponent to turn into him to escape the back and directly into the arm triangle.

One of the reasons Almeida is a difficult matchup for Rozenstruik is not only does Rozenstruik struggle with good wrestlers once they get on his hips, but even at range he has to change his style to have success in the stand-up. He has been known to shy away from kicks against good takedown artists, forcing him to work almost a pure boxing attack apart from the odd well-timed knee down the middle.

He is also such an effective counterpuncher because he moves the minimal distance he needs to avoid strikes so that he can hold the center of the cage. Against Almeida, moving back but not out of range means he will be in place for the level change behind Almeida’s strikes.

Although it is a big jump in competition, Almeida’s fighting style is one of the best matched up with Rozenstruik’s skills and weaknesses. At -550 it would be difficult to make much of a profit on Almeida as the favorite so the move here is to either go Almeida by stoppage given his track record, at a less difficult -350 or better yet, use Almeida as a parlay booster.

Pick: Jailton Almeida by stoppage (-350 odds at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida, 31, is the future, coming sooner than later, of the heavyweight division. That is not to say he will hold the belt, as Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, Sergei Pavlovich, and Ciryl Gane will have something to say about that; but, Almeida is, without question, in that tier of contenders. He just doesn’t have the resume yet.

Almeida, who is self-proclaimed the “Brazilian Khabib” is an explosive and highly skilled wrestler with lethal finishing ability on the mat. Almeida is hyper-athletic, unbelievably strong, and highly explosive. He tends to strike a bit early in fights, mainly with feints and basic boxing combinations. The goal of his striking, which lacks technique, is to open up the hips of his opponent. As soon as the opportunity presents itself, Almeida almost spears forward, into a unique double leg shot, gets his opponent down, grapevines the legs, and quickly hunts the finish. He generates insane power in his takedowns, lands devastating ground and pound, even from guard, and has slick submissions in his arsenal as well.

To put it simply, until now, no one in the UFC has been able to keep Almeida from landing a takedown and no one has survived once he lands it. The question about Almeida’s game that this fight is designed to answer is if he can safely land a takedown against a truly powerful opponent. Almeida’s striking is better than bad but not good either and his chin is often exposed on the feet. Against the top five of the division, no matter how good his wrestling and grappling are, an exposed chin is dangerous.

Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik, now 35, is a deceptively athletic and heavy-handed kickboxer with solid takedown defense and an ability to end the fight in an instant. When he’s at his best, Rozenstruik is an explosive counter striker who lulls his opponents into making a mistake with low volume and an almost disinterested demeanor. Then, once an opponent over extends, Rozenstruik blasts forward with a snapping body kick, highlight reel upper cut, or an unforgiving combination. In those moments, if Rozenstruik lands cleanly, he often gets his hand raised while his opponent is finding the stool.

Like many others in the division, Rozenstruik does his best work early in fights when his cardio allows for high energy movements and big power. All of his UFC wins, outside of the one huge highlight reel finish, have come inside of 1.5 rounds. Rozenstruik struggles, though, when he tries to implement his countering game plan but gets caught staring into a mirror. This has happened against Ngannou, Gane, Blaydes, and Volkov. In those fights, Rozenstruik landed 5, 42, 18, and 6 total strikes, respectively. Whether it was the big power coming his way that made him cautious and hesitant or the level of competition that didn’t allow for openings, Rozenstruik has a real issue when he doesn’t let his weapons loose.

This fight features a fighter with a -550 price tag and the unofficial nickname of “The Brazilian Khabib” against an aging heavyweight who is 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Barring a Juliana Pena-style knockout, Almeida is going to win this fight. The trick is figuring out how to bet it.

Everyone is expecting, rightly so, for Almeida to get the finish on the mat; he has an exceptional wrestling and grappling game. However, betting on the method is a dangerous coin flip. Once he’s on top, it will be Rozenstruik’s choice on how he gets finished, not Almeida’s. What I mean by that is when Almeida lands on top, Rozenstruik will either stay on his back and cover up, resulting in an Almeida TKO. Or, Rozenstruik will avoid punishment, roll over, give up his back, and get submitted.

In a situation where the massive favorite has two possible paths to victory and the likely losing fighter is the one to decide, I do not recommend betting a method. It’s a coin flip.

Instead, I much prefer betting Almeida to win in round one. He should dominate from the opening minute; and, even though, recently, Almeida has gone late into the first round, I expect him to fight with urgency as the main event. Next up might be Almeida’s shot at a real name in Curtis Blaydes.

Best Bet: Almeida to win in round 1 (-110 odds at BetUS)

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Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida prediction | UFC 283 odds https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/shamil-abdurakhimov-vs-jailton-almeida/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/shamil-abdurakhimov-vs-jailton-almeida/#respond Wed, 18 Jan 2023 10:49:25 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=41178 Shamil Abdurakhimov will attempt to break his three-fight losing skid against a fighter 10 years his junior at UFC 283. Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida, who earned...

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Shamil Abdurakhimov will attempt to break his three-fight losing skid against a fighter 10 years his junior at UFC 283. Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida, who earned his UFC contract on the Contender Series has already accumulated a UFC record of 3-0. This is over three times less than Addurakhimov but the momentum will be with the Brazilian.

Almeida is coming off of a big victory over Anton Turkalj last September. He has a 100% finishing rate in his pro career with 17 wins and just two losses. Although Abdurakhimov’s last win came in 2019, it does show just how dangerous he can be. It consisted of a TKO finish over the always-game Marcin Tybura which then put him on three straight victories including a decision over Andrei Arlovski and a KO over Chase Sherman.

Betting Odds

Likely due to his recent losses, Abdurakhimov will be one of the largest underdogs on the card.

  • Shamil Abdurakhimov: +600
  • Jailton Almeida: -900

Fight Breakdown

Shamil Abdurakhimov hails from Dagestan but does not fit the typical wrestling-heavy approach of many of his countrymen. Instead, he actually comes from a kickboxing and sanshou base. However, he did develop good freestyle wrestling takedowns and top pressure early on making him a threat everywhere.

He stands conventional, with a high guard. He will often look to break through distance with a leaping left hook but patiently looks for his opportunities to move in calculatingly. His right hand is powerful, but it’s often used for multiple other purposes. He will stretch with it to then throw a left hook behind at a closer distance. Even more commonly, however, he uses the right overhand to disguise his level change, roll under the counter and attack the double leg.

Abdurakhimov does not have a highly sophisticated jiu-jitsu game, but his ability to stay heavy and maintain a top position is a massive problem. He is content to work inside his opponent’s guard, dig his forehead into their chest, and hammer away at the body, building on control time. On his back, he looks to immediately hip escape to one side with an under-hook and wrestle up rather than play any sort of offensive guard.

Jailton Almeida, on the other hand, is one of the most promising and dangerous BJJ artists in the heavier weight classes. Yet, every fight starts on the feet. Almeida is a powerful striker, with a solid right low kick and a snappy left shift kick to the head. He is very precise and tight with his boxing, so despite having a good reach, he does have to step absolutely into range to land because he doesn’t stretch on his shots. This is also because he tends to maintain a very upright and tall posture whenever he is exchanging, so he does need to be wary of the overhand counter when he throws his kicks, leaving himself on the centreline and upright.

That being said, the moments we see Almeida striking are few and far between as he is always thinking about level-changing. He will feint and throw up high to bring his opponent’s guard up and then blast double. He usually runs the hips to the cage and completes it, quick to collect the far side wrist and force his opponents to either give up the back or be mounted. Almeida’s grappling game can be attributed to his masterful ability to misdirect his opponents. He will pressure on hip, just so that he can pass the guard on the other side when they defend, he will seem as though he is taking the back just to snatch the opposite arm or choke on the other side as they turn into him. Fan’s watching Almeida work know not to blink as he will quickly secure something when his opponents least expect it.

Prediction and Betting guide

Although a $100 wager would be redeemed with a $577 dollar profit, the underdog bet on Abdurkhimov is a gamble on very specific scenarios. He throws a nice right overhand and collects the opposite leg for the takedown at the same time, which could be very useful against an upright fighter like Almeida when he kicks. However, if Almeida is wise to this, then the chances for Abdurkhimov are slim. He has been knocked out in all three of his last three fights, and at 41 years old, exchanging is always a significant gamble. Almeida will most definitely look to take Abdurakhimov down and while he has good takedowns himself, the most lackluster area in his grappling skills is his abilities off of his back.

At -1000, it may not be worth it to place a single bet on Almeida, but with Abdurakhimov’s string of knockout losses, a bet on Almeida by stoppage may have a fair chance. Otherwise, stringing ‘Almeida to win’ onto a parlay to boost winnings may also be a smart bet.

Pick: Jailton Almeida to win by stoppage (-450) or to win in a parlay (-900)

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Prediction: Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter | UFC Fight Night 206 https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/prediction-almeida-porter/ https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/prediction-almeida-porter/#respond Wed, 18 May 2022 11:07:23 +0000 https://thebodylockmma.com/?p=37474 Elite light heavyweight prospect, Jailton Almeida (10-2), will make his UFC heavyweight debut against the always tough Parker Porter (13-6). Since Almeida’s last professional loss,...

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Elite light heavyweight prospect, Jailton Almeida (10-2), will make his UFC heavyweight debut against the always tough Parker Porter (13-6).

Since Almeida’s last professional loss, he has rattled off 10 consecutive wins, all coming via finish inside of two rounds. Meanwhile, Porter has put together impressive performances of recent note, leading him to a 3-fight win streak, all of which were fought in the UFC. Knowing Almeida has elite talent compared to Porter being all game inside the octagon makes for a fantastic clash of win-streaks come Saturday night.

Odds

Jailton Almeida, being an elite – light heavyweight – prospect, is a staggering -675 favorite over the “true” heavyweight, Parker Porter.

Moneyline

Total Rounds

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Breakdown

Almeida put his name on the map with a dominating DWCS win back in 2021. Oftentimes, the hype surrounding DWCS fighters is overblown; and, I am quite pessimistic relative to the expectations of these fighters early in their UFC career. But, for Almeida, the performance he put forth on DWCS was truly elite, so much so commentator and former UFC champion, Michael Bisping, stated that he believed Almeida was a top 10 guy in the light heavyweight division right now.

The statement made by Bisping coupled with the expectation put on him by many in the MMA community made for a high bar to hit for Almeida within his UFC debut. Somehow, Almeida, who coins himself as “The Brazilian Khabib”, surpassed all expectations. His display of takedowns, ground control, elite ground and pound, and most importantly, propensity to shoot early in the round left me fully believing the scouting report formulated by Bisping – a top 10 guy right now. The only, yes only, question associated with Almeida thus far in his UFC career is if he will continue to bounce around divisions, or if he will settle in at the light heavyweight division, which is where his 6’4 frame will create sizable problems for any opponent he elects to face and take to the ground.

Parker Porter has chained together performances that have transitioned my perception of him being a fringe UFC fighter at best to someone who can legitimately be in the organization for many years. I believe he too would be the first to state the changes he made as a fighter were both necessary to his success along with necessary to stick with the UFC.

The most critical change in Porter’s game is getting a handle on his cardio and showing up in shape to fight. Although the eye test may disagree with this change, I assure you Porter has shown well with dictating pressure and inflicting continuous damage throughout all rounds. Being able to have a continuous output, coupled with mixing in wrestling –1.57 takedowns landed per 15 minutes – is a sound choice for Porter given he has an underrated well-rounded arsenal of attacks; the consequence of said choice is forgoing one-punch, fight-ending power. I believe the choice is well made for Porter in future bouts, but when facing a challenger in Almeida that is faster, a far better grappler, and will have cardio to fight 15-minutes without issue, I believe Porter will need to revert back to “his old self” with regard to relying on one-punch power to win the fight.

Prediction

The odds tell the story of how the fight should go. Almeida is a truly elite prospect who will likely find little to no adversity in this fight against Porter. I expect Almeida to do what he always does, which is, wrestle early and often. Some may forecast Almeida having difficulty getting the larger opponent down, but, Almeida has the frame and elite technique to do so quite comfortably. This, parlayed with Porter being a far better offensive grappler than defensive, rationalizes my belief that Almeida will secure a victory inside the distance – strict ground and pound or ground and pound that results in Porter giving up his back and Almeida securing a submission.

Bet: Almeida to win inside the distance

The post Prediction: Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter | UFC Fight Night 206 appeared first on The Body Lock.

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