The question on everyone’s mind is whether Strickland can defy the odds and dethrone one of the most dominant champions in recent history.

Will Adesanya’s technical prowess and striking acumen prove too much for Strickland, or will the challenger’s relentless pressure and unorthodox style create the perfect storm for an upset?

Dive into our expert analysis, betting odds, and predictions to get a clearer picture of this epic showdown.

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Betting Odds

Israel Adesanya’s a heavy favorite in the UFC 293 main event. For those who believe that an upset is on the cards, Strickland can be found at +425 odds.

Otherwise, there are decent odds on method of victory props on this fight, and you’ll find our writers suggesting some of these further below.

• Israel Adesanya: -650 (BetUS)
• Sean Strickland: +425 (BetUS)

Read on for our detailed fight breakdowns and predictions for this main event clash.

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Adesanya vs. Strickland predictions

Braeden Arbour

Sean Strickland has one of the most unusual striking styles at the top of the sport. He uses a very straight-legged, tall stance that does not allow much room for use of his rear leg, but it does allow him to constantly raise the front teep to create space and push his opponents backward. His odd use of a tight guard and the occasional switch to a philly like shell means he has to depend heavily on reaction time for defense, parrying punches rather than slipping or weaving inside shots.

He almost exclusively blocks, but this allows his opponents to draw out the guard to wherever they want and attack elsewhere. The best example of this is Alex Periera’s use of the straight body shots, to bring the guard down and set up the left hook, but as to why most fighters are unable to find the same success comes down to Strickland’s ability to bring infinite forward pressure.

His upright stance is very efficient in terms of not having to explode to move. He marches forward and uses his long job and cross as well as his lead leg to keep his opponents moving backwards. This takes off a lot of the sting from their shots, as well as makes it difficult to kick having to move backward. Strickland does a good job of cutting off the cage as his opponents fade trying to keep up with his gas tank, and opens up with nicer boxing combinations when he has them trapped and skirting the fence. In particular he has a nice left hook, right uppercut, left hook to right hook combinations to work around the guard as his opponents circle to Strickland’s left.

However, much of what Strickland does is technically an issue relative to what is textbook in striking arts. His combination of pressure, grit and workrate allow him to do so, as well as an acute comfortable fighting, that allows him to react naturally and make good timing and reads that would otherwise be difficult. Against the next level in guys like Periera and by extension Israel Adesanya, what he does becomes much much more difficult. The biggest key to Adesanya’s success will be space and low kicks. Strickland maintains a relatively balanced stance but because he extends on his jab, he opens himself up to the lead leg. Investing in the legs and body early will set Adesanya up to land cleanly upstairs at some point, and Stylebender is particularly good at landing low for the purpose of the question mark kick to straight right.

Strickland has to take risks to get inside. Against Periera, the octagon presence dissuaded some of this pressure that Adesanya maybe does not have himself, but between constant feints and a superb ability to roll with shots and counter on the cage, few are as dangerous to rush as the champion.

I expect Strickland to take these risks in order to build pressure and control the center of the octagon, but Adesanya makes it very difficult with footwork and long striking, including leg and body kicks. This leads to Strickland making more drastic movement in an attempt to break through which is what opens him up more dramatically to the counter-boxing and head kicks of Adesanya. Strickland does have wrestling and jiu-jitsu in his back pocket, he has a nice slip to double underhooks and outside trip takedown, but tactically, Strickland seems fairly one-dimensional in his approach and will not hunt for the takedown; instead finds it naturally if the opportunity arises.

Adesanya has tremendous takedown defense against the cage, struggles sometimes in space, but generally makes it difficult to close that distance if he can help it, so I do not expect Strickland to shoot unless he finds himself already clinched, probably already against the fence making it difficult. In the end, I think Strickland knows staying on the outside leads to a huge deficit on the scorecards and will take risks as he usually would and as he must, which is what opens him up to being finished. This is a finish-or-be-finished fight for the American and I heavily favor the champion.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya to win by stoppage (-105 at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya finally conquered his demons with a highlight reel finish over Alex Pereira back in April. Outside of Pereira, Adesanya has never lost at middleweight and has rarely faced any significant challenge. Whittaker and Gastelum gave him excellent fights but Izzy still won both by unanimous decision. Adesanya is a top 3, if not the #1, striker in the entire UFC. He is an elite kickboxer with unparalleled timing and accuracy.

He is dynamic on the feet and can land seemingly every strike imaginable from seemingly every position. Because he’s primarily a counter puncher who rarely puts himself in harm’s way, Adesanya has been criticized for being “boring” or not bringing the fight forward. But, much like Jon Jones in the past, Adesanya has the luxury of being the champion which puts the pressure and responsibility on the challenger to beat the champ. Izzy uses that circumstance to his advantage, happy to sit at range, evade strikes like he’s in the Matrix and counter with impeccable speed and timing for a full 25 minutes.

Adesanya has excellent cardio, striking, and intelligence; all of which combine to create a future hall of famer. The only situations in which we’ve seen Adesanya struggle are up a weight class against Blachowicz where Blachowicz was able to wrestle Izzy down and grind out minutes on top. The other situation came when Izzy was winning a fight against AP, got stung in the 5th, and then finished by possibly the most powerful middleweight. Outside of those instances, Adesanya has rarely struggled because his striking is levels above his opponents and his defensive grappling, when in his own weight class, is strong enough to keep the fight standing.

Strickland is a basic yet effective boxer. He stands upright with a high and closed guard, protecting his chin well. “Tarzan” has fantastic cardio which he uses to push a pace early and rack up damage late. His typical style is to walk forward, almost plodding with his stiff front leg, pump his jab out, and land with accuracy on his opponent.

Zombie-like in his approach, Strickland rarely lets his opponent breathe, instead being on them and pushing forward from the first to the final second. That constant pressure and defensive awareness- he defends 62% of strikes- makes him a pesky but undeniably effective striker. He regularly lands over 100 significant strikes in a fight and rarely receives much damage in return. When he is hit clean, Strickland, undeterred, absorbs the shot and keeps moving forward.

Also, while we haven’t seen it in a while, Strickland can mix in some wrestling and grappling to his boxing-heavy attack. Even the threat of a takedown or clinch gives his opponents another skillset to consider and opens up their chin for more of his volume. Strickland, though memorable on a microphone, often puts forth unmemorable fights. He fights with such a focus on the jab that he sometimes goes minutes without following it up with any power shots or combinations. He’s technically scoring, which helps him win decisions, but he’s often not dealing out real damage. Nevertheless, his pressure and technical boxing can be a challenge for overeager opponents or those with poor cardio.

Strickland’s personality and microphone skills coupled with Adesanya running out of worthy competitors is what set this fight up; it was not Strickland’s skill or recent fights. Strickland is 3-2 in his last 5 which only include 1 finish win over an unranked fighter.

While I am a fan of chaos and would be truly entertained with a Strickland win, the skill disparity between these two will be clear and evident on Saturday night. Izzy is too fast, too dynamic, too technical, and simply too good for Strickland to find much, if any, success. Strickland’s best attributes are his cardio, his jab, and his perpetual ability to move forward. But, as shown in both his losses, he struggles against creative strikers, speed, and fighters who can move laterally to counter his linear plodding.

I expect Adesanya to piece up Strickland’s lead leg early, counter the jab often, and work in some creative body and head kicks. Because Strickland has phenomenal cardio and Adesanya typically is content piecing opponents up for 25 minutes, I like the champ to take this to a wide and clear decision.

Best Bet: Adesanya to win by decision (+130 at BetUS)

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Joe Pounders

Israel Adesanya is one of the most intelligent, cerebral fighters to have stepped foot in the octagon. His mental tactics and ability to understand fighter tendencies is a significant skill of his and has greatly contributed to him running rampant through the middleweight roster, with only Alex Pereira causing him issues.

Having the mental advantage accompanied by having elite technical ability on the feet affords Adesanya with knowing he will have the striking advantage over most, if not all challengers of his. Because of this, he prioritizes the maintenance of said advantage by maintaining distance and keeping the fight standing. The ability to do so time after time is why he has been so dominant throughout his UFC tenure. Moreover, his elite technical and sniper-like striking with all limbs is further contributory to his dominance. But, in the rare circumstance that his elite footwork, knowledge of distance, and/or ability to implement his vastly underrated grappling defense fails him, there is a demonstrable path to getting him to the mat to secure a victory, which only the former 205 champion, Jan Blachowicz, was able to do.

Implementing the Jan Blachowicz path to victory, which is to trust striking but ultimately wrestle, is the perceived path to success for Sean Strickland. There are two massive issues with this perception: first, Sean Strickland rarely fights the logical path, and second, Strickland’s grappling acumen is far better from a defensive perspective than it is offensive as he too is more of a striker than a true wrestler. So, with both these points at play, it is more logical than not to expect Strickland to implement his rinse-and-repeat style of heavy pressure favoring constant output over power.

This style is perhaps the worst to use against an Adesanya-type fighter, as the champion is his best self when his opponent comes forward and throws first. Moreover, the cardio-depleting tactic Strickland seeks will not work on Adesanya, so his normal advantage is null and void, thus creating a fight that, from a style perspective, is picture-perfect for Adesanya and one that is truly terrible for Strickland.

Prediction:

The UFC has historical fights where a challenger was given zero chance of winning but came out with a win by shocking the world. Because of this, I will not go as far as to say Sean Strickland has no chance in this fight because he is durable, battle-tested, and does have a well-equipped fight game. What I will say is that I have supreme confidence that Israel Adesanya will not only win but will look dominant in doing so. He will have the advantage in nearly all facets of MMA here, and the biggest advantage is his style of long-range counterstriking being perfect against a non-single punch power, pressure-style fighter that is Strickland. Because of this and because Adesanya lands with clean, effective strikes, I am confidently taking him by TKO/KO here.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya by TKO/KO (+110 at BetUS)

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The post Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland predictions | UFC 293 appeared first on The Body Lock.

This time, we’re focusing on breaking down the main event in detail, with Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders sharing their opinions on who will win and why. But that’s not all, we also have predictions up for many of the other UFC on ESPN 48 fights including:

• Michael Morales vs. Max Griffin
• Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto
• Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina
• Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
• Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
• Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov
• Elves Brener vs. Guram Kutateladze

As you prep your betting strategy, make sure to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter for exclusive fight predictions and betting tips that’ll give you an edge.

If you haven’t already, sign up to BetUS using our special link for an unbeatable sign-up bonus. Now, let’s gear up and dig into the betting odds for the much-anticipated Strickland vs. Magomedov brawl.

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Betting Odds

First things first, let’s break down the betting odds. The current odds stand at Sean Strickland at -150 and Abus Magomedov at +120. If you’re new to the betting scene, here’s a quick rundown.

• Abus Magomedov: +120 (BetUS)
• Sean Strickland: -150 (BetUS)

Negative odds (Strickland’s -150) represent the favorite and show how much you need to bet to win $100. In this case, a $150 bet on Strickland could net you an extra $100 if he wins. Conversely, positive odds (Magomedov’s +120) indicate the underdog, representing how much you could win from a $100 bet. If you wager $100 on Magomedov and he emerges victorious, you stand to pocket an additional $120.

Our experts Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders have dissected the fighters’ strategies, strengths, and weaknesses, giving you a holistic view of what to expect in the ring. From Strickland’s unusual style and Magomedov’s well-rounded fighting skills, to the probability of Strickland’s economical style wearing Magomedov down in the later rounds, they’ve covered it all.

Don’t forget to sign up to BetUS and get a head start with that sign-up bonus!

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Abus Magomedov is a very skilled and especially well-rounded fighter. Growing up on the wrestling mat before transitioning to kickboxing as a teen, he has extensive training both in pure grappling and striking which makes him dangerous everywhere. A quick glance at their records, Strickland at 26-5 and Magomedov at 25-4 seem comparable at first, but 18 of those fights for Strickland have been under the UFC banner while Magomedov only just made his debut.

Sean Strickland has an unusual style, while he does most of his work with his boxing he keeps his lead leg very light to check and block, maintains a very erect posture with his chin almost in the air, and a high loose guard. He depends highly on his reaction time as he mostly parries and blocks strikes coming his way in between peppering his opponents with straights and hooks. Alex Periera highlighted the way in which Strickland’s style can be controlled, forcing him to over-commit to a parry with a feint and then reach around with the left hook. Magomedov has such a wide variety of striking tools that he could do very well mixing things up and getting Strickland to bite. He should set up his punches with kicks to bring the guard down and vice versa, draw Strickland’s hands up to block or across to deflect and land a kick in whichever opening he draws out.

However, while this sounds simple at face value, one of the reasons few have been able to execute on Strickland is because it’s difficult to set up combinations going backward, and Strickland may be the best at constantly moving forward. He peppers his opponents with his shots, never really ending up out of position by overthrowing and because he maintains his posture instead of bobbing and weaving he can kind of continue to march his opponents down. It’s especially difficult to land kicks on Strickland because he’s constantly closing that gap, and staying in his opponent’s face, needing only to worry about his guard’s movement to deflect punches. It’s not too difficult to touch Strickland but it’s extraordinarily difficult to land flush.

It would be smart for Magomedov to invest in the lead leg of Strickland, not because he stands to put much weight on it but because it could do something to slow down his forward movement. Likewise, if he does find himself smothered, going to his level changes early and having success could be another way to slow down that momentum, although Strickland has a very high takedown defense at 85% and underrated grappling of his own. What Magomedov has to do is at least gain enough respect that Strickland doesn’t feel comfortable just walking him down for the duration of the fight.

Early on in the fight, fans will get to see what wins out. The consistent force of Strickland or Magomedov’s ability to set up big moments. Magomedov’s fight IQ is very high and he does have a history of landing big shots, spinning kicks, jumping knees, and big punches. All of this is difficult to do when you are the one being pushed backward, but if Magomedov can create those openings he has to take full advantage of them. What will make the biggest difference in my opinion, is if Magomedov cannot stop Strickland Early, he will be wading into unknown territory.

Strickland’s style is extremely economical, in that it takes less energy to move forward, less energy to stay postured rather than slip and weave and he doesn’t throw 100% into his shots. This makes him a major problem in the latter rounds as his opponents fade. Not only is this Magomedov’s second UFC fight, but he has never gone five rounds in his entire career, and even his first UFC fight ended in under a minute. It’s a big ask for any unranked fighter to jump into a top 10 UFC fight in their second bout, but it’s even more of an ask when you make it a main event against one of the better five-round specific fighters in the world.

Pick: Sean Strickland to win (-120)

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Michael Pounders

At this point, given the frequency to which he fights and the unmistakable style, handicapping a Sean “Tarzan” Strickland fight is common knowledge. He fights in a uniquely upright stance with his hands glued to the front part of his chin, walks forward almost apathetically, pumps his jab relentlessly, rarely wears damage, and looks to win fights on the back of volume and forward pressure.

His defensive awareness, demonstrated by his high guard, has been increased since his knockout loss to Alex Pereira. Since that fight, Strickland is even more reluctant to let his right hand go, instead favoring to keep it on his chin to protect against power hooks, the same punch Pereira landed to finish him. This results in Strickland rarely throwing power shots of his own, unless he has a clearly exhausted or vulnerable opponent.

While his jab and high guard help protect his chin, his midsection and lead leg are vulnerable to damage. He’s tough and has excellent cardio which helps him absorb shots to both areas with little reaction; but, still, both are avenues for his opponent’s attacks.

On the other end of the spectrum from Strickland’s recognizable style and consistency in the cage, we have Abusupiyan “Abus” Magomedov, a PFL alum who has only accrued 19 seconds of octagon time in 2 years. Those 19 seconds included a violent and impressive knockout win in his UFC debut back in September of 2022.

Prior to the UFC, Magomedov racked up a 24-4 record with 20 finish wins and rarely saw a fight exit round 2. He tends to fight with aggression and violence from the opening seconds. He has a cracking calf kick, a devastating right hand, and an unmistakable desire to end the fight as quickly as possible. Given his style, Magomedov often brings the fight to his opponent with immediate pressure and, sometimes, wild, combinations.

He, like many power punchers, uses his calf kick to immobilize his opponent and create a stationary target for him to unload on. Outside of the calf kick and power, though, Magomedov’s striking is fairly basic and his cardio unproven. He’s getting a real shot against an established ranked UFC veteran and a win, especially a finish win, would significantly increase Magomedov’s stock.

Just like last week, I think the most valuable way to analyze this fight is to spend more time examining the lines to find value rather than breaking the fighters down in depth. Especially considering the unique situation with Strickland being one of the most active fighters on the roster and Magomedov only having 19 seconds of octagon time in 2 years.

We know Strickland will likely fight the same way he always does and we’re projecting how Magomedov will attack this challenge with little data to work with. What we do know for certain: Strickland has an excellent jab, is defensively aware- especially after the Pereira knockout, and uses volume and cardio as his primary weapons.

Meanwhile, Magomedov has real power, likes to blitz early, and has unproven cardio. Given this matchup stylistically, logic dictates that if Strickland can survive the first round or two of Magomedov’s power, he’ll be in prime position to pull away with the fight. Strickland has been cracked and finished before but is more defensively cautious; so, while the +235 price tag for Magomedov to win by knockout is a solid number, I don’t think it has a 30% chance of happening as the implied odds suggest.

Disappointingly, Strickland by knockout is almost the same number: +250. Strickland only has 1 knockout since 2020 and typically doesn’t carry much power. I do think him by finish is more likely than normal given Magomedov’s tendency to swing big, the likelihood of him gassing out, and Strickland’s relentless volume; but, at +250, the value just isn’t there.

So, looking deeper, I think the sharper bet is Strickland to win in round 4 (+1700) and round 5 (+2000). Magomedov has gone three rounds before, in the PFL, but hasn’t fought someone with Strickland’s cardio and pressure.

So, I, along with many others, see a real path for Strickland to find a late finish against an exhausted opponent. But, rather than returning only +250 for the knockout, we’re getting significantly more value to focus on the “late” part of late round finish. I like taking half of your normal bet, or half a unit, and putting it on a round five finish and the other half of the bet on round five. Strickland’s cardio and pressure should overwhelm Magomedov over time and the finish should be there late.

Best Bet: Strickland to win in round 4 (+1700) and in round 5 (+2000)

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The post Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov staff predictions | UFC on ESPN 48 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Kelvin Gastelum was initially scheduled to be Imavov’s main event opponent but needed to withdraw from the card earlier this week after suffering a mouth injury. Strickland is the fighter to step in on short notice, and the fight has since been bumped up to the 205-pound light heavyweight category.

Strickland vs. Imavov will be hosted at the private UFC Apex Facility in Las Vegas, just one week out from the promotion’s return to pay-per-view next weekend with UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill.

Continue reading for our full staff analysis, predictions, and betting picks before the Strickland vs. Imavov main event. You can also find dedicated prediction and analysis articles for the majority of UFC Vegas 67 fights.

Betting Odds

Nassourdine Imavov is a slight favorite for this main event matchup, with late replacement Sean Strickland currently available at even odds.

• Sean Strickland: +112
• Nassourdine Imavov: -120

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Sean Strickland stepping in on short notice presents Imavov with a ton of new problems to solve. Strickland stands very tall with an unusual guard that rests on or below his chin but he is constantly jabbing, feinting or hand-fighting regardless. In some ways, like Gastelum, Imavov’s original opponent, Strickland thrives in his ability to move minimally inside the pocket so that he is still in range to counter and flow into his next combination, however, this is done with less slipping and rolling, rather he will lean away or angle off. He extends his guard when he pulls away so that his opponents tend to land on his arms.

For Imavov, he should look to attack Strickland’s lead leg, because as one of the best jabs in the UFC, Strickland does shift his weight heavily forward. Take away his leg and take away his jab, which is one of, if not his best weapon. That being said, when Strickland finds his lead leg being eaten he does tend to shift to a Thai stance, and use a good teep to keep his opponents at bay, this may provide Imavov opportunities to catch the leg and look for his trips and takedowns and test Strickland’s grappling from bottom. I do think that Imavov is a higher submission threat but Strickland has yet to really show any glaring holes in his defense.

I do think that while Imavov has a wider variety of striking skills and footwork on a larger scale, this ultimately becomes less and less effective as time goes on and the two grow tired. Sean Strickland’s jab and upright approach is extremely economical over five rounds and he tends to slowly break guys down with a constant pace. Imavov is yet to go five rounds and has even shown fatigue in his last three rounder.

Ultimately I see Imavov controlling the distance early and landing the cleaner strikes. If he can put Strickland on the fence, he may be able to find something on the break, he has a great uppercut from takedown feints. However, I do think that over time Strickland will become more and more effective if he is in shape and healthy after fighting in just the UFC’s last event, last month.

The smart money is still on Imavov to win, however, if Strickland can turn the fight around by the third round and build momentum, I see him gaining traction and winning the last three.

Pick: Sean Strickland to win (+112 odds)

Michael Pounders

Sean “Tarzan” Strickland, steps in on less than one week’s notice to take on Nassourdine Imavov. This fight will take place up a weight class at 205. Most recently, Strickland lost a moderately entertaining and controversial decision in the final main event of 2022. Imavov, 4 years younger than Strickland is on a 3-fight winning streak. He was originally slated to face Kevin Gastelum, a short, southpaw, and accredited wrestler with legit power. Now, in less than a week, Imavov must pivot and prepare for the lengthy, orthodox, and striking focused point fighter in Strickland.

Strickland is big, strong, and technical but lacks the power and athleticism that many atop the division have in spades. Strickland tends to fight with an extreme upright stance, hands close to his jaw, and mouth open, often talking to his opponent. “Tarzan” has crisp boxing that relies on fundamentals, volume, and precision over aggression and power. Frustratingly, though, in back to back fights, Strickland’s game plan has been so bare bones that his fundamental boxing has been reduced to a single fundamental jab for most of the fight. Rather than using his quick and volume heavy jab to set up a power combination, recently, Strickland has kept his right hand glued to his face. It’s possible that getting knocked out permanently changed Strickland’s fighting style. Prior to getting KO’d, in a standup fight, Strickland often had the edge in boxing but often is a step behind when all facets of MMA striking come into play. Said another way, Strickland is a one-note boxer with little striking variety or power. When “on,” Strickland is able to push a steady and constant pace, fight intelligently and safely behind his jab, and land consistent combinations, when he lets his hands go. Strickland is also a sneaky wrestler. Most of his fights are technically driven and he wins decisions on the back of out pointing opponents; but, if he gets into trouble, Strickland has proven an ability to time a takedown and finish it with regularly success. Although, more often, Strickland uses his grappling chops as way to stuff opponent takedowns and keep the fight standing. Because Strickland doesn’t have much power or fight finishing ability himself, he relies on cardio and volume to win decisions. At times, though, even after Strickland wins the first part of a round, one big shot can sway the judges. This was apparent in his most recent loss to Cannonier. Strickland out-landed Cannonier but Cannonier did significantly more damage. Moreover, in a fight on less than a week’s notice and up a weight class, Strickland might struggle to push his patented pace. A volume striker who can’t push volume is a dangerous combination.

Imavov has impressed each and every time he’s entered the octagon. Even in his sole UFC loss, Imavov looked crisp and in control for much of the fight. The French fighter has technical lateral movement which helps him avoid heavy power shots and forces opponents to chase him around the cage. He has intelligent and well timed counter strikes which he uses well when an overly aggressive or linear opponent tries to cut the cage and stop his movement. His hands are crisp, able to land with volume and power with little wasted movement. Imavov’s typical path to victory is to start slow, fight behind his jab, and time up his opponent. Then, as round 1 nears its end, we often see Imavov increase his volume, plant his feet, and look to land heavier shots to seal the round. Round 2 often follows the same game plan as round 1. Round 3, though, is where Imavov’s critics point to when suggesting his shortcomings. Even though Imavov seems to have good volume, cardio, and movement for the first 10-12 minutes of a fight, around the second half of round 3, he has slowed considerably. His footwork becomes lazy, he drags himself around the cage rather than fluidly moving, and his striking looks more like he’s punching underwater rather than the snapping strikes he throws early in the fight. Despite the cardio concerns, Imavov has proved his toughness and grit, working through difficult positions and exchanges when gassed. He’ll need to address that cardio, especially in a 5-round fight, because he has the striking acumen to continue to fight in main events.

I am in the minority but I think this fight against Strickland is a much better matchup for Imavov. Gastelum can push a nasty pace himself, especially in rounds 4 and 5, and Gastelum has the power to hurt a gassed opponent. With this fight happening on short notice and up a weight class, it’s less likely that Strickland has the better cardio. So, Imavov’s primary concern, gassing and losing the later rounds, becomes less likely. Moreover, against Gastelum, Imavov would have to mind his P’s and Q’s for 25 minutes given Gastelum’s power. Now, against a point-fighter who is hesitant to throw with emphasis, Imavov can strike more freely. The big question in this one is the size difference. Imavov has fought at 170 in his career so he is already a bit undersized at 185. With this fight taking place at 205, there is a chance Strickland is simply too big for Imavov. However, that possibility does not sway me enough to couch my opinion that Imavov should be the more technical, varied, and powerful fighter who has continued to improve fight after fight. I’m confidently taking Imavov here. A decision is most likely; so, hopefully, we can leave the strange judging back in 2022.

Pick: Imavov to win (-120 odds)

Joe Pounders

Nassourdine Imavov is a highly technical striker who adheres to a similar game plan as his fellow countryman and teammate, Ciryl Gane. Specifically, Imavov values technique and speed on the feet contrary to throwing with all-out power, as he believes piecing away at his opponent will eventually let the finish find him, not chase the finish. I am a big fan of letting the finish come to you by controlling the pace, range, and direction of the fight, as this style is able to be easily repeated and the successful implementation is far more predicated on the fighter him/herself contrary to needing the opponent to have certain flaws necessary to win.

A great example of Imavov putting his style on display is in his last fight, as he beat a very explosive and dangerous power threat in Joaquin Buckley.  Here, Imavov not only used advanced footwork to negate the largest threat of the fight – power – but also, showcased how he is truly a mixed martial artist in the octagon and not just a point striker, as he shot 7 takedowns, landing 2 of them. Once there, he looked for the submission to end the fight, and although he did not find it, the fight illustrated how he is a well-rounded fighter who can exploit the easiest path to victory. And, more important than having the ability to exploit the easiest path, Imavov showcased he is willing to forego any ego of wanting to prove he is the superior striker which shows fight intelligence, an attribute that is necessary to climb the top-end of the middleweight division.

In total, Imavov is a prospect who has the fight game necessary to sit at the top of the division but does have some flaws in his game that will need to be cleaned up to ensure his ascent up the division. Notably, the output he puts forth in the octagon will need to be able to stay the same from start to finish without any semblance of strikes diminishing given his game is output over power. Moreover, he will need to continue to show the ability to land the clean strikes when facing the top of the division, as he will likely be in close rounds, and given power is not on his side, he will need to land clean and crisp strikes to exacerbate the damage aspect of MMA judging.

I could rinse and repeat my breakdown of Sean Strickland as a fighter from my article just one month ago as he fought the exact way he always fights in his last bout. While many believe he won the fight, the reason why he lost a close decision is his inherent flaw in his fight game, that is, he values pressure-forward output compared to landing the more punishing blows. This style, on paper, is quite similar to Imavov, but the way in which Strickland implements it is quite different. Notably, he uses a very upright stance with a non-stop jab which is quick and lands with regularity. The issue is that while, on paper, the jab allows him to get up on the strike count, the visual of throwing a touch jab out there makes it less than appealing for the judges, hence him losing close decisions. Moreover, his upright stance of his creates an opportunity for his opponent to land a variety of strikes to his body and legs, and although Strickland has impeccable durability and a keen sense to avoid the harshest end of a particular strike, the way in which his opponent lands looks more damaging than what he inflicts on his opponent.

While I am quite critical of Strickland, he is an extremely confident and well-rounded fighter who will be in nearly every fight he is in. Because of this, Strickland will nearly always give himself a chance to pull out the victory, whether it be at a moment’s notice in the fight or when the scheduled duration comes to an end. So, if he finds a way to open up his striking beyond a primary jab approach, he can begin to win the close rounds contrary to getting the chair pulled up from underneath him.

This fight will be razor-thin. Similar to Strickland’s last fight, I expect Imavov to look good early but anticipate the insane cardio of Strickland will allow him to begin to do well as the fight goes on. So, the question for me is if Imavov can find clean enough strikes to potentially put away Strickland inside the first 2 rounds or if he has improved cardio to continue his output from start to finish.

While I expect Imavov to land devasting knees to the body and potentially a sharp elbow, I do believe Strickland has the necessary durability and fight experience to negate strikes landing to the effect of putting him away, thus the first posed question is likely a no for my answer. Regarding the second, I do believe Imavov will have the necessary cardio to keep up his movement and output for the entire duration of the fight. Because of this, I am taking him in this bout although I am quite concerned knowing the rounds will be quite close and the judges may lean toward Strickland knowing he lost a coinflip fight just one month ago – this should not be the case, but judges may have inherent human bias.

Pick: Imavov to win by decision (+390)

The post Sean Strickland vs. Nassourdine Imavov staff predictions | UFC Vegas 67 appeared first on The Body Lock.

It’s the final UFC fight card of 2022, with a total of 13 fights scheduled for the night at the UFC Apex facility. The co-main event is a battle between Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov.

But for now, let’s focus on our staff picks, predictions, and analysis ahead of Cannonier vs. Strickland this weekend.

Betting Odds

• Jared Cannonier: -115
• Sean Strickland: -105

Staff Picks

Michael Pounders

In a true battle of irony, Sean “Tarzan” Strickland, a loose cannon verbally but reserved in his fighting approach, takes on Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier, who is soft spoken but has deafening power. Strickland parlayed a 6-fight win streak between 2018-2022 into a title elimination fight. During that run, he knocked 2 opponents out and won the rest by decision. Then, he ran into the buzz-saw and now champion, Alex Pereira, who violently finished him inside of 3 minutes. Strickland is big, strong, and technical but lacks the power and athleticism that many, his opponent included, atop the division have in spades. Strickland tends to fight with an extreme upright stance, hands close to his jaw, and mouth open, often talking to his opponent. “Tarzan” has crisp boxing that relies on fundamentals, volume, and precision over aggression and power. Typically, in a standup fight, Strickland will have the edge in boxing but often lose the battle when all facets of MMA striking come into play. Said another way, Strickland is a one-note boxer, but, that one-note is impressive. He is able to push a steady but constant pace, fight intelligently and safely behind his jab, and land consistent combinations. Strickland is also a sneaky wrestler. Most of his fights are technically driven and he wins decisions on the back of out pointing opponents; but, if he gets into trouble, Strickland has proven an ability to time a takedown and finish it with regularly success. Although, more often, Strickland uses his grappling chops as way to stuff opponent takedowns and keep the fight standing. With only 4 losses in his professional career, two of which came against eventual champions, the flaws in his game are less apparent. But, Strickland has shown to struggle against powerful and athletic strikers that are able to land the more damaging blows in a round. Because Strickland doesn’t have much power or fight finishing ability himself, he relies on decision wins often. At times, though, even after Strickland wins the first part of a round, one big shot can sway the judges. Until his last loss, a knockout to Pereira, Strickland has absorbed these big power shots with relative ease but the impact can still sway the judges. Unless he adds finishing ability, unlikely given his age and success with his style, Strickland will continue to be at risk of “that one big shot” to win a round or even a fight.

Cannonier has made a career on timing and landing that one big shot. He is hyper athletic, powerful, and explosive. But, he strikes with frustrating infrequency and can be caught staring in fights rather than attacking. When he does attack, Cannonier often lands with accuracy and deadly power. He is best known for his crazy powerful leg kicks which he can effortlessly and quickly land to the calf, body, or head of an opponent. While his kicks can likely be heard several counties over, Cannonier’s hands are no joke as well. He, again, patiently waits to unload but when he does he makes the most of it. Like Strickland, Cannonier has found consistent success in defending takedowns throughout his career. Given he often has the edge in striking power, speed, and ability, opponents have tried to get him down to the mat and to neutralize his best assets. Most who have tried have failed at getting the big man down; but, more recently, possibly do to age, Cannonier has found himself on the mat more than he’s used to. The other issue in Cannonier’s game, alluded to above, is his passivity when striking. While Strickland can lose rounds because of a lack of impactful shots, Cannonier has lost rounds because of a lack of any real volume at all. He often spends so much time circling, feinting, and moving to try and trap his opponent that important minutes tick away at the clock; and, unless he lands that one perfect strike, he drops the round. Because of his power, though, Cannonier is always dangerous and is in every fight until the final round hits 0:00.

This fight comes down to volume vs power. Strickland could include a wrinkle by wrestling or at least clinching Cannonier against the cage; but, like Holland against Wonderboy, sometimes pride gets in the way of fight IQ. I don’t anticipate Strickland wrestling much in this one. So, assuming a strictly standup fight, Strickland’s powerless volume takes on Cannonier’s volume-less power. This bites me in the backside more than I’d like, but, I just can’t bet on a guy landing that perfect shot. 2022 has been the year for it, with Leon and Pereira, but expecting a guy to lose a fight until a sudden moment just to have him land the perfect fight ending shot is not a predictable method of handicapping. So, I’ll stick with the belief that consistent volume and intelligent defense will trump low volume and big power. I like Strickland to stick’n move for 25 minutes, hopefully circling away from Cannonier’s head kick.

Pick: Strickland by decision

Joe Pounders

Jared Cannonier is one of, if not, the hardest-hitting middleweight fighters currently on the roster. This, accompanied by his natural strength, makes him one of the most dangerous fighters to stand against. But, in this fight, intimidation and fear to stand against will not be present as it is simply not in the DNA of Sean Strickland as Sean truly loves violence.

I urge you to go to any social platform, type Sean Strickland into the search bar, and simply listen to the many trending clips he has produced over his time as a fighter. Beyond it being entertaining, doing so will greatly aid in your perception of how he fights, as his personality is intertwined with his fighting game. Particularly, he uses an Alpha approach to fighting, where he marches down his opponent and seeks to drag them into the deepest waters where he knows he can swim and is fully willing to see if his opponent can swim deeper. What is quite interesting is that while he puts on an in-your-face style of fighting with non-stop pressure and output to destroy his opponent, he throws little to no power shots. This lack of power intent with strikes is the polar opposite of how you would think Strickland fights, but the fact is he consistently gets in your face, leaves no room, and throws non-stop punches with the occasional clinch to further test the cardio of his opponent contrary to looking to land that one power shot.

Choosing to weaponize cardio and leave ego at the door is a great combination for a fighter. The problem for Strickland is that this ego is not in terms of power, but ego with being able to withstand whatever counter his opponent throws his way. This lack of regard for safety in the octagon proved fatal his last time around with the now champion, Alex Pereira, as he wore too many calf strikes – an easy strike to land given Strickland strands extremely upright – and was hit with clean power shots to the head. If Strickland continues this blatant disregard for himself in the octagon, Cannonier should be able to inflict the same power damage on him as Periera did given he has granite for fists and understands how to land power strikes the same way elite heavyweight contenders do.

Beyond having elite power in his hands, Cannonier has extremely dangerous kicks, particularly when he stands in his traditional southpaw stance as he can land his massive left leg kick to the body of his opponent. Moreover, Cannonier has underrated wrestling, both from a defensive and offensive lens. To justify this, talented grapplers of Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum have a combined 0-10 takedowns against Cannonier, and while he had a hard time offensively wrestling Israel Adesanya, the natural strength he has gives him great chances in successfully wrestling Strickland in this matchup albeit Strickland has impressive takedown defense in his own right. In total, Cannonier is a dangerous fighter where only the most technically gifted have been able to beat him in the middleweight division, so, his opponent will need to show a clear separation in technical skill to beat the number 3 ranked middleweight contender.

Stylistically, this is a great matchup for Cannonier and a horrible one for Strickland. The opposing stances accompanied by Strickland being a heavy-pressure, upright fighter opens up ample opportunities for Cannonier to land counterstrikes with his hands, and once Strickland backs up, land the heavy left leg to the tall torso of Strickland. But, the reason why this fight is priced as a pick’em is if Strickland can avoid the power threat of Cannonier, particularly early in the fight, he will have the significant cardio advantage and should be able to pull away as the rounds transpire. So, the question that looms is if Strickland make it to the 3rd round? My answer is no. Cannonier presents too much power and the stylist matchup of this fight could not favor him any more than it does here, so I am backing him here, and given I believe he needs to win early to mitigate the cardio differential between the two, I am picking him by KO.

Bet: Cannonier by Rd1-2 TKO/KO

The post Staff Predictions: Jared Cannonier vs. Sean Strickland | UFC Fight Night 216 odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

Pereira, the only fighter to knock out current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, is now on a fast track to a UFC title shot after the promotion has matched him with #4 ranked Strickland. Strickland enters on a six-fight win streak with recent victories against Jack Hermansson, Uriah Hall, and Krzysztof Jotko.

Read on for all of our play-by-play updates, live results, and highlights from Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira at UFC 276.

Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira play-by-play

Watch the fight live or the full replay only on ESPN+ PPV.

Round one

We’re underway. Low kick from Pereira. Body kick. Jab. He’s starting this one with volume. He looks calm as Strickland slowly marches toward him. It looks like Strickland is going to try and kickbox with Pereira rather than making this one a mixed martial arts fight – let’s see how it plays out.

Nice jab from Pereira and Strickland returns one of his own. Strickland advancing but Pereira looks comfortable so far, mixing up punches to the head and body. Strickland’s jabs are starting to land now as he looks to be finding his range. Right hand touches the chin of Strickland. Low kicks from Pereira now.

A powerful left hook from Pereira connects and sends Strickland flying. Tons of power in that one and Strickland tries to get back to his feet but is met with another stiff right hand from Pereira. Referee Jason Herzog calls an end to it before Pereira gets a chance to follow through with more punches. That’s another win for Pereira in the books.

Official Result: Alex Pereira def. Sean Strickland via knockout (left hook) – R1, 2:36

DON'T PLAY WITH THE POWER OF POATAN

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— UFC (@ufc) July 3, 2022

Top 5 look out, here comes Alex Pereira

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— UFC (@ufc) July 3, 2022

Fighters react to Strickland vs. Pereira

Damn that hook was vicious ! #UFC276

— Derek Brunson (@DerekBrunson) July 3, 2022

This guy must have sledgehammers for fists! That was INSANE!! #UFC276

— Aljamain Sterling (@funkmasterMMA) July 3, 2022

Geez, mans got power#UFC276

— Uroš Medić (@urketaraketa) July 3, 2022

Wrestling olympians ,Wrestling all Americans , Glory champs , bjj goats … the list goes on . No other division like so #UFC276

— Derek Brunson (@DerekBrunson) July 3, 2022

OH MY GOD!! Where did that come from? KO of the night#UFC276

— Diana Belbiță (@DianaBelbita) July 3, 2022

Read our UFC full fight play-by-play updates and live results for every other UFC 276 main card fight here.

The post UFC 276: Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira play-by-play, full fight results, video highlights appeared first on The Body Lock.

Sean Strickland is a self-proclaimed psychopath who enjoys getting hit and simply loves the sport of fighting. Meanwhile, Alex Pereira is a former Glory kickboxing middleweight and light heavyweight double-champion, who is 2-0 over the current UFC middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya, in kickboxing. While Strickland has the experience and affinity for wars, Pereira is relatively new to the sport of MMA. Albeit the case, a win for either man in this match will likely earn him a shot at the title, so this is a fight you definitely do not want to miss!

UFC 276 is a PPV event and will stream only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night. Order the PPV here to watch every fight live.

Betting Odds

Sean Strickland and Alex Pereira are currently locked head-to-head at odds of -115 each at both MyBookie and BetUS.

• Sean Strickland: -115 (MyBookie)
• Alex Pereira: -115 (BetUS)

Breakdown

Reverting back to Strickland’s last fight against Jack Hermansson, not much has changed relative to the lead-up to that fight when analyzed to this. What I mean by this is that Strickland is an oxymoron when it comes to fighting, whereby his skills are very technically sound and he is quite pragmatic in the octagon, but when certain moments present themselves to him, he will let out his inner psychopath and throw out technique under the preface of fight enjoyment. This switch from technique to brief moments of war-like affinity is the embodiment of who Strickland is as a fighter, and why he is on a 6-fight win streak.

The technical side of Strickland’s fight game is sound boxing technique that allows him to throw in combination with frequency and speed. Choosing speed over all-out power seems completely off given the personality of Strickland, but he has shown time after time that he is far more concerned with landing cleanly than with all-out power. Electing to do so is quite smart given Strickland will keep a pace and pressure that will eventually wear down his opponent, and at that point, the damage of his strikes really begins to come to the surface. This pace and pressure also allow Strickland to control the octagon, and he is able to do so throughout the duration of the fight given he will not back away from a counter-attack nor will he be susceptible to being taken to the mat – 85% TD def. Lastly, having constant pressure allows him to have success in shooting a takedown himself, and although he greatly favors striking, Strickland has shown a willingness to successfully wrestle if the opportunity arises.

Having strong cardio, a relentless pace and sound boxing are all extreme positives for Strickland. But, he does have glaring weaknesses – to his credit, he has overcome them to earn wins. The most notable weakness, particularly in this fight, is having a slow-moving, hyper-vertical stance. This stance allows his opponent to land kicks with relative ease, and in this fight, wearing kicks is the worst thing for Strickland. The other weakness of Strickland is the mere fact he does not have one-punch power. Now, this does not mean Strickland is completely inept to ever land a punch that KO’s his opponent, but, what it does mean is that his power threat of Strickland is nowhere near that of other middleweight contenders. Lacking this threat will allow his opponent to confidently strike against him which is a dangerous proposition in this particular fight.

Saying Alex Pereira has confidence in his striking would be a vast understatement. This is largely due to him having world-class kickboxing experience, and he has seen this experience translate over to MMA quite well. Interesting, albeit he beat Adesanya in kickboxing and is attempting to challenge for the belt in the near future, Pereira’s style of striking does differ from that of the champ. Notably, Pereira throws with extreme power and ill-intentions behind nearly every strike contrary to that of Adesanya using a speed-precision form of intent. The benefit for Pereira is that at any moment of the fight he can greatly damage his opponent and get the finish. This benefit is indeed important, particularly with knowing the longer Pereira is in the octagon, the greater the chance he will be taken to the mat – the last place he wants to be. Even while this is the case, and even with knowing he has elite power behind a plethora of strikes, he has shown to take a fair amount of time to capitalize on the advantage of the fight being a standing affair, and this passive nature is cause for concern because the root cause is likely far more fear of being taken to the mat contrary to simply looking for an open shot.

Fear of being taken down is justified given nearly every opponent he will face will try to do so. In his last fight, Pereira showed improvement with combating the takedown, but the opponent was not touted as being a strong wrestler. Moreover, Pereira did show difficulty in escaping clinch positions against the cage, and this position of clinch-wrestling and/or clinch-striking is quite a strong attribute of Strickland’s fight game. So, in this fight, Pereira will need to show – continued – improvement by keeping the fight standing, and if done, he will have the clear advantage on the feet.

Prediction

I find myself wavering back and forth with how the fight will take shape. The speed of Pereira’s kicks with extremely powerful hands against the hittable Strickland lends me believing he will win early; but if Strickland can cut the distance, he can maintain close-range tactics to grind his way to a victory. From a gambling lens, I like a double play on Pereira to win in rounds 1 or 2 and Strickland to win by decision. From a strict “who will win” perspective, I favor the more dangerous fighter with respect to damage and ending the night before the scheduled 15 minutes is completed, as such I am choosing to back the inexperienced Pereira in this matchup.

Pick: Pereira to win in round one or two (+135 odds at BetUS)

UFC 276 is a PPV event and will stream only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night. Order the PPV here to watch every fight live.

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Alex Pereira, the only fighter to knock out Adesanya in kickboxing, has quickly moved into the spotlight following two wins in the UFC. If he manages to defeat Sean Strickland (#4) this weekend then Pereira will likely earn the next shot at the UFC Middleweight Championship and set up a fascinating rematch if Adesanya is also successful in his title defense this weekend.

UFC 276 is a PPV event and will stream only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night. Order the PPV here to watch every fight live.

Speaking with Alexander Volkanovski in a recent YouTube video, Adesanya shared his thoughts on Pereira’s rise and compared how quickly other fighters had become UFC champions.

“Obviously, elephant in the room — ‘Pereira is the only guy to beat Izzy, blah, blah, blah,’ Adesanya said, referring to the narrative. “Sometimes they say that it’s too fast, too fast to push, they said about me. But look, Jiri [Prochazka] just became the new light heavyweight champ after fighting twice in the UFC. In his third fight in the UFC, he became the light heavyweight champion.

“I think Brock Lesnar did the same thing. Anderson Silva did it in his second fight but after an extensive career in MMA outside the UFC. Alex has an extensive career in kickboxing outside the UFC. MMA I don’t know really know much about.”

Pereira has a tough opponent this weekend in Sean Strickland who has won six consecutive fights, however. Adesanya also commented on Strickland, sharing why he’d never spar with the middleweight contender.

“Sean Strickland is a bad motherf—er,” Adesanya said. “Like literally bad, rotten apple, but I like the guy, he’s funny, and he likes to talk shit as well. His stand-up, ugh, I’ve seen him do more damage on YouTube in sparring than in his fights, put it that way. I’ve seen his sparring footages and I’d never spar with an idiot like that.

“I’ve hurt people in sparring before and I’m like ‘shit, my bad’ or I’ll pull back with a body shot or whatever. But I’ve seen what he does and he’s talking shit. Whatever floats your boat, yes, but it’s a funny thing to say coming from us but I don’t like to hurt people. Even though that’s our job. But I like to make sure they can come back the next day to do their work and give me work. You need your teammates.”

As for the matchup, Adesanya highlighted what Strickland will need to be concerned about at UFC 276.

“It’s that first round that he has to worry about,” Adesanya said. “That’s the most dangerous round with Pereira. I’m trying to think of Sean and I think his ego might get the better of him. If I’m going to bet money, I’m going to go with Pereira in this fight…

Volkanovski shared his opinion on the fight and he believes that this one won’t hit the ground.

“It’s funny because you see him talking like ‘these motherf—ers want to wrestle,’ but at the same time will he be like will I do what I have to do?” Volkanovski said. “I’ll go with Pereira. I think it’s going to be a stand-up [fight].”

The post UFC 276: Israel Adesanya shares Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira prediction appeared first on The Body Lock.

While champion and former champion Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker battle it out for gold at UFC 271, a number of other promising middleweights and potential challengers will be watching patiently and analyzing their potential next task. Fans can watch Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 and the full UFC 271 fight card only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night.

Here are my top five middleweights currently in the UFC.

Champion – Israel Adesanya

This should be no surprise. Having taken out every challenge at middleweight put in front of him en route to his championship, how could Adesanya not sit atop the best middleweights in the world right now. With likely the most educated striking game in MMA today, few can rival him in the stand up game and as he constantly improves he is proving to be talented wherever the fight goes. That being said, the chances that you can dictate where you end up fighting is scarce, those who have been able to take him down at middleweight have not been able to hold him there long.

Looking at his most recent run, although it’s difficult to justify a title shot off of an Anderson Silva who was already declining through the ranks at the time, rising to the occasion and beating Kelvin Gastelum for the interim belt while he was on the cusp of a title shot cemented Adesanya as a deserving title challenger. Not to mention as of now he holds wins over four of the top five ranked middleweights by the UFC.

#1 – Robert Whittaker

In any world where Israel Adesanya did not fight Robert Whittaker at UFC 243, it’s not just possible but extremely likely that he would still be extending his championship reign today. He has an elusive and calculated style built upon his background as a karateka but with KO power to boot. His ability to mix in takedowns when it matters and defend against the best grapplers in the UFC, including Yoel Romero, while nursing an injured leg makes him a well-rounded scary prospect for any challenger looking his way.

Although Yoel Romero, the man he beat to get to the belt, is no longer in the UFC, many of Whittaker’s older victories have aged well. Both Brad Tavares and Uriah Hall, whom Whittaker beat early on in his bid at middleweight, hold top 15 and top 10 rankings. His win over Derek Brunson is especially important as he is one of the rearing challengers underneath Whittaker within the top 5. Furthermore, as the number 1 contender, and only rank to lose, Whittaker since losing the belt has constantly battled back rising prospects, beating #8 Darren Till, #3 Jared Cannonier, and #12 Kelvin Gastelum in succession to cement his place as the prince of the division as of now. Currently, Whittaker holds wins over two of the UFC’s ranked top 5 middleweights.

#2 – Derek Brunson

This is where my list begins to stray from the official UFC rankings. Derek Brunson sits at #4 officially, likely due to his impressive 5 fight win streak. Once thought to be a gatekeeper in the division, Brunson proved doubters wrong by reinventing himself. Rather than giving into the addiction of being a knockout artist who underutilized his wrestling, Brunson went back to his base and reinvented himself as one of the division’s most dominating grapplers. Although Adesanya was able to knock him out years ago, another fight would be a far cry from the first with Brunson’s newfound veteran mentality and growing fight IQ.

He currently holds wins over three of the top 15, including a win over Uriah Hall more early in their UFC careers. However, since rebounding from the loss to Adesanya in 2018, Brunson has added the names of Kevin Holland and Darren Till to his resume, as well as unranked but promising future prospects Edmund Shabazyan and Ian Heinisch.

#3 – Marvin Vettori

Officially, Marvin Vettori sits at number 3 in the official rankings. The reason I have him lower on my list is that while his latest victory over Paulo Costa is impressive and changes things relative to the Brazilian, it wasn’t actually at middleweight officially. This leaves Vettori coming off a loss to the champion at 185lbs, with fewer top 10 victories than Brunson. However, that doesn’t mean he doesnt have skills equal to Brunson. Vettori has a terrifying pressure style, in which he closes space to strike with little hesitation, he bullies his opponents and looks to mix in his wrestling to dominate his opponents when needed. Largely it is pace and relentlessness that get him the victory and a fighting mentality that can only be described as willing to take punishment because he is there to win by all means necessary.

Currently, Vettori holds wins over Kevin Holland and Jack Hermansson at 185lbs, the latter of which is ranked #6 in the world at the time of this article’s writing. He also holds a win over the #5 ranked middleweight in Paulo Costa, although due to an error in Costa’s preparation eventually took place closer to light heavyweight.

#4 – Sean Strickland

The only addition to this list that isn’t actually amongst the top 5 rankings in the UFC yet. This may change soon due to his recent victory over Hermansson but it remains to be seen. A fighter’s record is only as good as it is relevant at times and rankings is largely one of them. While Paulo Costa deserves an argument for this spot as well, his time off and botched weight cut leaves him with only one win inside the top 10 and leaves room for rising prospects like Sean Strickland to enter. For lack of a better term, the controversial North Carolinian has had his fair share of discussion around his name for more unsavory reasons but don’t let that distract you from his calculated and clean fighting style. Primarily a boxer, Strickland utilizes a unique guard and straight posture when he fights, allowing him to lean out of range and return with his sharp jab and long right crosses. He is elusive as he is relentless and makes for a frustrating opponent whomever he stands across from.

As of now, he enjoys a six-fight win streak, including top 10 fighters Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall. Prior to this wins over fighters just shy of a world ranking in Krzysztof Jotko and Brendan Allen also lend themselves as proof to the skill of Strickland.

You can order the UFC 271 PPV on ESPN+ here to watch Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 and the entire fight card live this Saturday, January 12 in the United States.

The post UFC 271: Ranking the top five UFC middleweight fighters before Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 appeared first on The Body Lock.

It’s an intriguing clash of styles between two mid-ranked fighters in the division and sets up the winner perfectly just before four middleweight contenders are set to battle at UFC 271 next weekend.

With Israel Adesanya set to face Robert Whittaker in the UFC 271 main event and Jared Cannonier ready to clash with Derek Brunson, this middleweight clash could prove to be pivotal for the winner.

Hermansson vs. Strickland and the entire UFC Fight Night 200 card will stream live on ESPN+.

Betting Odds

Strickland will enter this weekend’s main event as a significant betting favorite at -225 against Hermansson (+185). The odds were originally much tighter with Hermansson opening at +150 and Strickland at -175.

• Hermansson: +185
• Strickland: -225

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Both men come into this fight with very obvious strengths and weaknesses relative to one another. While Strickland is relatively fundamental and relentless, Hermansson is creative and unpredictable. In general, one would think that Strickland likely should hold the striking advantage on paper while Hermanson should have the same in the grappling department. Sean Strickland’s style is based on his ability to pepper his opponents with semi-committed shots until they are eventually broken down. He stands extremely tall and straight in his stance, which makes it difficult to slip and roll like most fighters, which is why he relies so much on the rear hand parry and lean back. He works almost exclusively behind his jab, which he flicks out with his shoulder rather than hip, minimizing its telegraph. However because of this most of his punches don’t have the same weight behind them, meaning they may be easier to take. This suits him fine because he seemingly enjoys himself in the cage and is evidently there for the long ride should it be needed, which is why he doesnt gas out and typically wears down fighters after they’ve taken cumulative punishment.

For Hermansson, the closest thing he has felt to this was against Marvin Vettori, whom he lost to. This is not a good sign looking towards this matchup, however, a major factor will be the power, I do not think that Strickland will be able to garner the same respect from Hermansson who may be more confident entering with big risk high reward techniques, especially rolling for submissions without overly fearing ending up on the bottom. Hermansson uses awkward striking which is hard to read but the movements are large which means should Strickland anticipate an odd attack correctly there will be time to slip his jabs inside Hermanssons big swings.

Hermassons best bet though is to use his striking as a means to an end on the mat. His takedown accuracy isn’t anything special and Strickland has good defense but he often creates scrambles and positional battles off of failed attempts, such as attacking the neck or rolling underneath. His top game and ground n’ pound are lethal, but he needs to have the unpredictability and confidence to mix things up in a way that allows him to wrestle Strickland to the ground. At the very least, even if he finds himself stuck in striking exchanges with Strickland, being able to force Strickland to grapple intermittently to offset the slow energy-sapping pressure of Strickland in the grand scheme of things and lessen the gradual build-up of damage that most of Strickland’s opponents have to deal with.

Hermansson has to avoid getting stuck in a long, drawn-out striking contest with Strickland, and his educated pace and jab, by using his unorthodox movement to open up takedowns, and then be ready to chain that into clinch fighting. From there, I think Hermansson can take Strickland off his game and get the victory.

Prediction: Jack Hermansson to win

Michael Pounders

Not only does Saturday’s Main Event pit #6 vs #7 in the middleweight division, and not only does the main event have the classic striker vs grappler matchup, but the Main Event also places two polar opposite personalities against each other. Hermansson, #6 in the division, is the calm, cool, and collected grappler in this matchup. Strickland, #7, is the chaotic, talkative, and dedicated striker.

Hermansson is a strong wrestler who technically but relentlessly forces his opponent against the cage or smothers them on the mat. He is adept at holding position while methodically looking for a submission opening or ground and pound finish. He often looks to pressure forward, back up his opponent, and force them to fight backing up. As with many wrestlers, Hermansson has excellent cardio, is able to continue to push the pace, and keep his pressure up for 5 rounds. Further, and most importantly, Hermansson has been a ranked fighter for a long time and has fought a variety of competitors. When he’s faced high-end strikers, both in terms of the power of Shahbazyan and the volume heavy technique of Gastelum, Hermansson has been able to withstand the storm on the feet and take the fight to his world. He’ll look to do the same against Strickland.

Strickland, a high-end striker himself, keeps a high boxing guard, stands tall, moves forward, and throws in combination with precision. He is patient as he moves, warry of the leg kick that often immobilizes fighters with boxing heavy stances like him. Further, Strickland rarely moves without a purpose and protects his chin and his lead leg by moving behind his own combinations. His style, while effective, is similar to the old adage: “straw that broke the camel’s back.” Strickland doesn’t have one punch power, doesn’t push an absurd pace, and doesn’t mix up his shots with variety. Instead, Strickland boxes with intelligence, precision, and consistency. That style has him pile up the damage on his opponent methodically. Eventually, as that damage accumulates and Strickland is winning rounds, his opponents are forced to press. Then, he can capitalize on their reckless forward movement and land that big shot later in the fight.

Both men have a clear path to victory. If Hermansson can get the fight down, he should be able to grind out a decision or find a submission. Strickland cannot match the ground skill or experience of Hermansson. If Strickland can keep the fight standing, he’ll have the advantage in speed, technique, and volume. I think this fight should be much closer in odds which has me seeing value in Hermansson as the underdog. Also, Hermansson has shown the ability to beat strikers of Strickland’s caliber while Strickland has not faced a wrestler of Hermansson’s skill. Lastly, Hermansson has proven he can succeed under the brightest lights, consistently. Ultimately, I see Strickland winning round 1 and stuffing early takedowns; but, eventually, Hermansson gets the fight to his world and secures the win.

Prediction: Hermansson to win

Joe Pounders

Strickland is perhaps top of the list when it comes to fighters who truly love to fight. He has quotes stating how he would love to kill his opponent in a fight and how he desires to spar the most dangerous fighter on the planet – Francis Ngannou – because he wants to feel as close to death as possible. Although he has a clear crazy gene, Strickland fights very technically and pragmatically when he is inside the octagon. In his fights, he enjoys staying at boxing range, given this allows him throw in combinations with frequency and speed, contrary to throwing with all-out power. This style of putting on constant pressure in a boxing-style stance would presumably lead one to believe he would be susceptible to a takedown, but in fact, Strickland maintains a takedown defense percentage of 82%. Lastly, he himself will shoot a takedown and he lands at an above-average rate – 61%. The issue, as with many who maintain an impressive win streak and have climbed the rankings, is that he has not faced the top echelon of fighters that the UFC has to offer. This concern should not be scoffed at, particularly for fighters who maintain an output-forward style contrary to having a dangerous, finishing style – think Chris Daukaus stepping up in competition to fight Derrick Lewis. The question that will need to be answered, and one that the entire MMA community will find out come Saturday night, is if Strickland is truly a top-5 caliber of fighter in the middleweight division.

The concern of having a lack of top-tier competition is not a problem for the crafty veteran, Jack Hermansson. At this point in his career, Hermansson is likely viewed to be a top-5 gatekeeper contrary to one who has serious title-contending capabilities. With that said, there are an increasing amount of title runs from crafty veterans within the UFC – Glover Teixeira being one – and Hermansson certainly fits the mold to make said run. His fighting style is a grapple-heavy approach with dangerous finishing abilities once on the mat – 6 of his 9 wins inside the UFC coming from ground and pound or submission. Similar to other high-ranked grapplers inside the promotion, Hermansson does well utilizing striking to set up his grappling. On the feet, Hermansson does a solid job using his impressive cardio as a method of attack, whereby he uses frequent movement to stay at a safe range, and once an opportunity arises, he enters striking range to land a combination that will either allow him to secure a takedown or simply elect to hop back to a safe distance. The question for him will be if he can do enough work on the feet to land a takedown against the strong grappling defense of Strickland.

Prior to seeing the odds of the fight, I anticipated the odds to be relatively close, as such, I was eager to back Strickland in this matchup. His strong takedown defense accompanied by relentless pressure on the feet with impressive boxing resulted in my belief that he should win a very close decision over Hermansson. Given the odds are what they are, I have since flipped my prediction for two fundamental reasons: first, the bout should be extremely close with each man having success throughout the 5-round affair, and second, Hermansson is a battle-tested fighter who has had success combating the rise of surging middleweight contenders. All in all, this fight should be a close affair, as such, I am electing to back the more experienced fighter who has a very advantageous price tag.

Bet: Hermansson

The post UFC Fight Night 200 Staff Predictions: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland appeared first on The Body Lock.

The middleweight pair are set to battle in a five-round main event but were originally slated to compete on the upcoming UFC 265 fight card just one week later.

Like always, we’re here to share our staff predictions before this UFC main event bout. Read detailed analysis from Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders below before checking out our other UFC predictions here.

Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland betting odds

• Uriah Hall: +155
• Sean Strickland: -195

Strickland enters this fight as a decent-sized betting favorite at odds of -195. Hall’s the underdog in this one and is currently valued at +155.

Here’s an example of how to interpret the Hall vs. Strickland odds:

• A successful $100 bet on Hall to win returns $255
• A successful $100 bet on Strickland to win returns $151

So, who are we picking to win this bantamweight clash on Saturday night?

Braeden Arbour and Michael Pounders shared their detailed analysis ahead of the fight down below. Continue reading for our Hall vs. Strickland staff predictions.

Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland predictions

Braeden Arbour

Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland can be considered opposites in their approach to fighting. While Hall is creative and powerful and excels in choosing his moments, Strickland is dedicated to the fundamentals and is an accumulative knockout fighter.

When this matchup is contested on Saturday, the goal for Strickland should be to establish forward control. As is the case for many fighters, Strickland is far more successful when he is not on the backfoot. However, we have seen in the past that he will chase his opponents rather than cut off the cage. The danger in this with Hall, is that Hall does his best work when he has space in any direction, by chasing Hall, Strickland may allow Hall the room he needs to give space and counter.

If Strickland has made this adjustment in his training, look for him to put Hall against the cage where he is far less comfortable and stifle his creativity. With his crisp boxing fundamentals, Strickland needs to accumulate damage towards Hall if he wants a finish, however with consistent pressure, this could also be a route to a decision victory.

For Hall, the goal should be to maintain that space around him. He often paws at his opponent’s lead hand in order to establish a rhythm even when they aren’t engaged. By doing so, Hall times his big moments, often straight right hands and spinning kicks.

When not pawing, Hall’s jabs are some of the most deadly in the game, not thrown out in order to just gauge distance or set up a rear attack, but rather even his jab has the power and intention for the knockout. It will be an important tool to stop Strickland’s forward pressure. Hall should look to punish Strickland every time he gets too comfortable moving forward. He should do this by utilizing the jab, picking moments to stand his ground, and use his feints.

In terms of grappling, I do not see Hall looking to take Strickland down. Strickland may look to mix it up with the takedowns especially if he finds himself in difficult situations on the feet, however, it is not his first instinct. It is very important for Hall to not accept the defensive position, we have seen him in the past go into survival mode and work to defend submissions without attempting to get back to his feet or provide any offense. Although Strickland isn’t known as a particularly dangerous grappler, Hall has to be wary of wasting time by accepting losing positions to Strickland.

I see Strickland taking the lead in the fight, however, with the ability to attack moving backward, the creativity to keep Strickland guessing, and the power to change the fight at a moment’s notice, I think that Uriah Hall gets it done in round three if not by decision.

Prediction: Uriah Hall by 3rd round KO or decision

Michael Pounders

After a horrific motorcycle accident that nearly ended not only Strickland’s career but also his life, “Tarzan” has made an incredible recovery. Since returning to the UFC in 2020, he is on a three-fight win streak. During that streak, he has two decision wins and one TKO finish. His fight strategy in the octagon is transparent — out-box his opponent and do whatever it takes to stay on the feet. The 30-year-old middleweight is one of the more technical and talented boxers in the UFC. He keeps his hands high, stalks forward persistence and fluidly, avoids strikes, uses feints to get a read, and lands his shots with precision and power. If you’re a fan of fundamental boxing, you’ll enjoy watching “Tarzan” fight. If you’re not, you’ll likely enjoy his commentary during the fight. Beyond his fighting acumen, Strickland is one of the more vocal fighters in the UFC, often talking to his opponent during the fight. With a 23-3 record, 10 knockout wins, at 67% strike differential, and a 3-fight win streak, his skill more than backups his trash talk.

Riding a four-fight win streak and primarily a power striker himself, Hall will go toe-to-toe with Strickland on Saturday night. “Primetime” himself has crisp, quick, and powerful boxing. He often leads with his jab as he moves forward, following behind with big power shots when he plants and throws. Of his 17 wins, 13 have come via knockout. Despite often dishing out the devastating finishes, Hall has hit the canvas himself. In his 9 losses, the 36-year-old has been dropped and finished 4 times. In his last 10 fights, Hall has only seen the judges’ scorecards twice. This is likely because his strike differential is at 53% which means he often gives a shot to land a shot. When he’s the more powerful man, he’s found success with this strategy; but, when facing the likes of Whittaker, Brunson, and Costa, Hall’s shot for shot approach left him in the loser’s column. Win or lose, Hall’s fights almost always bring excitement.

After 26 UFC fights, the scouting report on Hall is straightforward — if he is the better and more powerful striker, he’ll likely drop his opponent before they drop him. However, when he faces someone more technical and/or more powerful, Hall often gets finished. Especially in his resurgence, Strickland has shown an impressive array of boxing skills. Strickland is the archetype of fighter that Hall has lost to in his career. Strickland’s skill and Hall’s history leads me to select “Tarzan.” He should be able to find Hall’s chin at some point throughout 5 rounds, and, Hall can be dropped. I like Strickland to box his way to a knockout win.

Prediction: Strickland to win by KO/TKO

Make sure to also read our other UFC Vegas 33 predictions.

The post UFC: Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland staff predictions, betting odds appeared first on The Body Lock.