Diego Lopes quickly became a fan favorite with his signature hairdo and more so after nearly upsetting Movsar Evloev on short notice at UFC 288. His opponent, Pat Sabatini, was viewed as one of the top prospects in the division before a knockout loss to Damon Jackson in 2022. In his return in June of this year, he earned a dominant victory over Lucas Almeida that has put him back in contention for a shot at the rankings should he earn a win this weekend.

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Sabatini vs Lopes Betting Odds

The line has been nearly even since it opened with Sabatini being a slight favorite.

• Pat Sabatini: -120 (BetUS)
• Diego Lopes: -110 (BetUS)

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Sabatini vs Lopes Fight Breakdown

Saturday night will be Diego Lopes’s third UFC bout and already his second main card appearance on a pay-per-view. The 28 year old is 1-1 in the promotion and 22-6 overall with 20 of those wins coming by way of stoppage. Lopes has found success mostly with his submissions in the UFC, giving Movsar Evloev a few scares in their short notice bout at UFC 288 and submitting Gavin Tucker in under two minutes his last time out.

The grappling of Lopes is dangerous regardless if he’s in the dominant position. He doesn’t rely a lot on his takedown defense because he’s so confident off his back with his submissions and for good reason. Off his back, he utilizes his legs in his guard and is constantly throwing them up towards the shoulders of his opponent, waiting for them to react and attacking armbars, leg locks, triangles, and pretty much any other submission you can imagine.

From the top position, Diego looks just as dominant. He has quick transitions and rains down ground n pound to again draw out defensive reactions from his opponent so he can pick a submission and attack. He does get a bit too reliant on these submissions when he’s in the defensive position and when he doesn’t get the tap, it can come back to hurt him. As he targets different submissions, he allows his opponent to do damage from the top position and, if he’s facing a grappler who can keep themselves out of any serious danger, he’ll drop these rounds because he chose to attack submissions over trying to return to his feet.

When Diego Lopes is standing, he’s more than willing to engage in the striking. He has a good straight right hand from orthodox but can be inconsistent with it and swing wildly if his opponent throws first. He has a tendency to back out of range initially before covering up and taking the shots to his guard where they often find their way through. He’s tough and fires back heavy counter shots but as he gets deeper in the fight, these strikes become slower and easier to avoid. He does have a good right kick as well that he used to target the leg and body early but seemed to abandon after round one against Evloev.

His opponent, Pat Sabatini, is another high level grappler with five wins in the UFC. Sabatini is a tremendous wrestler with heavy top control and ground n pound. He’s very good at staying safe when he’s in top position and advances positions smoothly. He has good submissions but likes to throw punches and elbows until his opponent gives up their back where he latches in the body triangle and attacks the choke.

The takedowns of Pat Sabatini are some of the best in the featherweight division. He has a variety of ways to get his opponent down but his best work comes along the fence where he can work for underhooks and grab the body lock. This negates the upper half of his opponent’s defense as he methodically wraps up their legs and works for trips that often see him land in half guard. If he isn’t getting the takedowns along the cage, he relies either on timing his opponent’s entries or dipping his head and looping some heavy strikes before shooting for the hips.

The strength of Sabatini lies in his grappling but on the feet, he’s capable of doing some good damage. He mainly fights from the conventional stance but likes to go southpaw to blast the left kick to the open side of fellow orthodox fighters. His punches are often counter hooks that he throws after level changing which opens up the counter takedowns later on. This constant up and down movement can get a little telegraphed and was a large part of his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Though he likes to time his opponent’s kicks and catch them for takedowns, he can be caught by these same strikes.

Diego Lopes should be ready to defend the takedowns of Sabatini in this matchup. Though Lopes has good submissions off his back, Sabatini does a very good job of keeping his opponent out of positions where they can do so. He controls wrists constantly and often lands his takedowns in side control where he’ll negate a majority of Diego’s submissions. If we’re to go off of previous performances, Lopes will welcome a fight off his back if and when Pat shoots for a takedown.

For Sabatini, he’ll likely find plenty of takedown opportunities due to the reactions of Lopes on the feet. Diego can freeze up to feints and level changes which often leads to him getting tagged or taken down. If he can take advantage of those opportunities to get in tight and clinch with Lopes, he can work towards taking him down along the fence to avoid the guard.

Sabatini vs Lopes prediction

Lopes will have a legitimate shot of winning this one if he can keep this on the feet and force Sabatini to strike at range. However, even if he’s able to keep Sabatini off of him early, the gas tank of Lopes begins to deplete after round one while Pat Sabatini can fight at a high pace for a full fifteen minutes. As the fight goes on, it’ll be easier for Pat to find openings to land heavy shots before finding a takedown. Sabatini’s top pressure and wrist control from half guard should negate the submission game of Lopes and force him to rely on returning to his feet (which isn’t something we’ve seen him attempt too much). I like Sabatini to get it done by submission or decision, but with the odds nearly even, I’ll take him on the moneyline.

Prediction: Pat Sabatini to win (-120 at BetUS)

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Originally slated to face off on Dana White’s Contender Series, Borjas and Van find themselves battling at the mecca of combat sports this Saturday. These are two young, high-action strikers who are ready to make a statement to a wide-open division at 125 lbs.

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Van vs Borjas Betting Odds

Joshua Van has already won in the UFC so it’s no surprise to see him as the favorite in this one.

• Joshua Van: -225 (BetUS)
• Kevin Borjas: +185 (BetUS)

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Van vs Borjas Fight Breakdown

Kevin Borjas is a sniper at range with his boxing. He works behind a quick, snappy jab that finds the range for his straight right that eventually follows. He’s accurate with his strikes and controls distance really well to stay at the end of his range. He showed some good sting to his punches in his Contender Series bout against Victor Dias, doing some big damage though he couldn’t get the finish.

The footwork of Borjas is used well to bounce just out of range and fire off the counter right hand that lands accurately and with good power. This counter striking looks to be the strength of his game as he doesn’t fall for a lot of feints and reacts well when his opponent does come forward. He keeps his right hand tight to the chin to protect himself while being quick to explode into his counters, attacking the openings as they present themselves.

The thing that gets Borjas in trouble is what happens after he throws. While his strikes are often quick, he isn’t quick to retract his shot and often leaves his chin open for counts. His shots loop after making contact, he gets heavy in his stance and his hips get squared, leaving him open for counter takedown attempts as well as counter strikes. Dias wasn’t quick enough on the feet to take advantage of the striking opportunities, but he did exploit how easily Borjas can give up the hips.

The motor of Borjas seems to be okay as he was constantly able to press forward with his offense throughout all three rounds, landing his boxing with speed and power. The lack of defense on the feet does become emboldened as the fight goes on and he begins to gas.

The originally scheduled opponent for Kevin Borjas and now his next is the 22 year old Joshua Van. Van is another striker with a crisp jab that he uses to gauge his distance and set up the rest of his offensive arsenal on the feet. Van relies a bit more on evading shots before firing back; once he finds his range and is able to control distance, he’s very efficient with his movement to evade shots before firing back with a quick 1-2.

Van fights at an incredible pace. In his UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, we saw him land 120 significant strikes – the second most significant strikes landed in a fight in UFC flyweight history. A lot of those strikes were his jab or a shot set up directly off the jab but he worked in a good mix of kicks as well. These kicks are used primarily to the body and leg early but as he makes reads throughout the fight, he finds openings for the head kick. As he gets more experience, these kicks should be used more and more frequently as they landed heavy and gave him even better variety on the feet.

Like Borjas, Van still struggles defensively on the feet at times. When he gets aggressive and comes forward, he can be open to some counters; he doesn’t bring his hands back to the chin after throwing and, with his reliance on backing out of the way of punches, he can get caught when throwing in tight spaces. His striking defense at range is solid and for someone so young both in experience and age, I expect him to get better here with age.

Though Van’s only been training his wrestling for about a year, he’s had some flashes that lead me to believe he’ll begin to mix this in more as well. He defends takedowns well on the cage and has the ability to escape from the bottom but his reactions and instincts from top control are what intrigue me most. He attacks ground n pound constantly, allowing his opponent to attempt to scramble and beating them to the next position to either continue striking or attack a submission if one presents itself. As he continues to gain experience and learns to chain his striking into takedown attempts, I think he’ll grow into a well-rounded mixed martial artist with a crazy motor and an ability to be successful wherever he needs to be.

Whoever is able to find their jab more effectively will have a significant edge in this one. Borjas will have a three inch reach advantage and he pops his jab out at range to catch Van when he enters. For Van, he needs to use his feints to draw out the big reactions from Borjas and time his shots in between his opponent’s. If Borjas can avoid biting on the feints and time the right hand, Van leaves himself open on his left at times and could get caught by the big power shot.

Van vs Borjas Prediction

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Van test the wrestling of Borjas either. Van’s continued improvements in the grappling department can make him a multi-dimensional threat and, at the very least, give Borjas one more thing to think about defensively. If he doesn’t, he’s still the more technical striker on the feet and is quicker with his strikes. Borjas looked great on the feet when he was able to come forward with little threat in return but the looseness of his striking will make it harder to find that same success against a higher level striker like Van. I can see Josh winning this a variety of ways but if he gets the finish, it’ll likely come later in the fight as he wears on Borjas with his pace and pressure.

• Prediction: Josh Van to win (-225 at BetUS)
• Best Bet: Josh Van to win and O1.5R (+103 at BetUS)

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Both of these men have won their last two with the UFC and are looking to grab their third in a row, along with a potential shot at the top 15.

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Betting Odds

The odds for this one favor the undefeated Petrino as he performs for his home country for the first time on the biggest stage in MMA.

• Vitor Petrino -235 (BetUS)
• Modestas Bukauskas +195 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Vitor Petrino is a 29-year-old prospect out of Minas Gerais, Brazil with an undefeated record of 9-0. He’s secured two wins in the UFC so far by submission and decision but has mostly earned knockout wins outside of the promotion (six of seven fights ending by knockout). The strength of Vitor Petrino is a pillar of his success. Though you can see the power in his hands, it’s most evident in his grappling. 

He’s a stone wall when his opponents try to bully him against the cage and is great at prying his opponent off his hips, no matter how deep they may be on the takedown. He fights out of the bottom position with explosive bursts and pure strength with little technique to rely on. You can see just how reliant he is on this strength when his opponent is able to get double underhooks or get ahold of him from behind; he’s forced to rely on balance and technique and has been taken down easily with trips. 

His striking is far from perfect as this is mainly predicated on his power and athleticism as well. He’s looping and wild with his punches but his kicks have more speed to them and have proven to be very effective for him at range. His hands look like they have 50 lbs weights attached to them with how slow they can be but when he lands, he does a lot of damage. 

The footwork and striking defense of Petrino have been two parts of his striking that I really like and, with more feints, could be used to open up opportunities to get his own takedowns. He’s explosive when he enters and if he gets his hands locked, it’s hard to stop him from getting the takedown. He has good top pressure with heavy ground and pound as well as a strong submission game.

The cardio of Petrino has been something that has plagued him throughout his career. While he fights hard over all three rounds, he begins to breathe very heavily before the first round is over. His strikes slow down even more and his explosiveness waivers a bit. I love his heart and determination to continue going forward aggressively and chasing the finish, but against stiffer competition, he’s going to find himself at a significant disadvantage outside of round one.

His opponent is Modestas Bukauskas who is riding a four fight win streak with two of those in the UFC. The 29 year old is in his second stint with the UFC and is 15-5 as a pro. He’s a striker with swift footwork, good punching power and a motor to go the full 15 minutes as he has in his last two wins.

Bukauskas’s main attribute is his footwork. He relies on reacting to his opponent’s entries and moving out of range and circling back out to space to create an angle for him to explode into with his own offense. He’ll switch this up from time to time, standing his ground to time a counter as his opponent enters but he’s most successful when he hops out of range and fires his counter back. This utilizes his speed advantage and, more importantly, keeps him out of the clinch which is where he’s struggled.

The striking diversity of Bukauskas is lacking. He likes to switch stances to southpaw but rarely does anything with it or fires a left kick before returning to orthodox. He fires these kicks (from both stances) blind a lot of times and has no defense with his left hand to prevent the right counter. He has a good jab that is underutilized as he prefers to fire the left hook into the right straight.

The footwork of Modestas is good but inconsistent and that can get him into trouble defensively. His reliance on getting out of range of his opponent often leaves him in position to be hit if his opponent chains together a combination of strikes coming forward. He also has a bad habit of circling the outside of the cage with his movement instead of cutting angles and using feints/strikes to get himself back into space. He’s been more successful in keeping his back off the cage since returning to the UFC but he still gets caught up here a few times a fight. When he’s trapped here, he can get tagged through a lacking high guard or his opponent can work for takedowns from the clinch.

With a 75% takedown defense, Bukauskas is far from bad at defending takedowns. He’s patient along the fence and looks for underhooks constantly to reverse position while avoiding overdoing it with the strikes. When he is taken down, he’s been able to get up consistently without giving up many opportunities for a submission.

The footwork and countering for both of these fighters will be key in this matchup. For Petrino, he looks the best when he can float around the octagon and wait for the opportunity to time his counters as his opponent enters. Bukauskas hesitates a lot when he’s the one coming forward and often telegraphs his entries; Petrino should look to take advantage of this and time his powerful shots as he comes in. This will not only give him the best opportunity to land his shots with the most power, but it will also cause crashes that Petrino can use to lock Bukasukas up in his tight clinch and work for takedowns.

For Bukauskas, he should be looking to pull Petrino forward and get him reaching. With Petrino’s tendency to overthrow as he’s moving forward, he gets off balance and this gives Bukauskas the perfect opportunity to use his footwork and back out of range before firing off his counters. He can’t get flat footed against Petrino; Vitor lands too heavy and is too strong in the clinch to give him opportunities to make the fight dirty

Prediction

While both fighters have good footwork defensively, I think Petrino is more solid defensively due to the effectiveness of his high guard and the threat of his power in the pocket. For Bukauskas, he holds the advantage in hand speed and technique. He also has a much better motor than Petrino who usually gasses before round two begins. For that reason, the fight likely favors Modestas the longer it goes. 

Petrino, however, could negate that if he proves to be too powerful from the clinch and is able to get Bukauskas down to the mat. He’s a strong wrestler and attacks submissions well, especially the rear naked choke which Bukauskas can be susceptible to as he tends to give up his back to get back to his feet. With the grappling threat as well as the constant onslaught of powerful punches, I don’t think that Bukauskas can keep defensively sound enough to stop Petrino from landing either a big takedown or a big shot on the feet. 

Though the odds have crept slightly towards Bukauskas since the line opened, Petrino still feels like the right pick here. He’s the more powerful striker and his ability to cause collisions to get himself into clinch situations will make it hard for Bukauskas to keep himself at range to land his offense from distance. Given the issues with his gas tank, it’s perfectly reasonable to hedge a bet on Bukauskas to win by decision at +375 but I think Petrino can get it done by knockout, submission, or grind out a win from the clinch/top control.

• Prediction: Vitor Petrino to win (-235 at BetUS)
• Best odds: Modestas Bukauskas to win by decision (+375 at BetUS)

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The post Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

These are two resilient, hard-hitting Lightweights who rely heavily on their toughness to outlast their opponents and often make some stellar comebacks in fights that have looked lost.

This never-say-die attitude has made them both fan favorites in their respective regional scenes, but they’ll be in Yahya’s backyard this weekend.

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Betting Odds

The odds opened with Yahya as the favorite but have steadily shifted towards Louisiana’s Trevor Peek. Peek currently sits as the favorite, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see it even out before it closes.

• Trevor Peek -158 (BetUS)
• Mohammad Yahya +128 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Mohammad Yahya is the current UAE Warriors Lightweight champion and the first Emirati fighter to make it to the UFC. Yahya is 29 years old with a pro record of 12-3, winning seven by knockout. Yahya is a durable fighter and carries good power in his counters. He mainly sticks to jabs and crosses when he’s moving forward but likes to switch stances on occasion to attack the body kick from southpaw. His right hand is his best weapon; he carries a lot of power in it and has been fairly accurate with it in his time with UAE Warriors.

He likes to counter strike as well but when he’s looking to do so, he plants his feet, doesn’t move his head and waits for his opponent to throw. Though there are times he’s quick enough to the target to land the better shots, he’s often not fast enough to land anything flush in between his opponent’s strikes. His best counter I’ve seen is his rear knee when he’s trapped along the cage and his opponent crashes in. He has good timing to land it to the mid-section cleanly which often gives him the ability to reverse position along the cage as his opponent recovers.

Leg kicks have proven to be an issue for Yahya. His opponents have found a ton of success in attacking his front leg; he rarely tries to check and often it looks like he doesn’t even see it. They didn’t target the leg nearly as much as they should’ve considering the damage done after just a few; I expect fighters at the UFC level to quickly this area of his defense along with his chin. Though he’s been able to survive getting rocked to come back for a win on more than one occasion, he can’t afford to be as defensively vulnerable at the UFC-level.

Yahya’s grappling game is far from perfect but when he’s in top position, he uses his head to generate pressure on the chest of his opponent to keep himself in control. He doesn’t work too hard to transition past half guard; he likes to go for ground n pound even when his opponent gives him ways to pass from here to mount or side control where he could hunt submissions.

His defensive struggles continue on the ground as well where he relies on explosive movements to reverse positions or cause scrambles. In his last fight, he got caught deep in a guillotine and was able to escape but struggled to do so and made mistakes that would’ve led to a finish against a higher level grappler.

His opponent is the always entertaining Trevor Peek. Peek has quickly become a fan favorite with his backyard brawl style which has earned him a knockout in each of his eight pro wins. At 28 years old, Peek has shown small improvements to make his game more technical, but he still largely relies on heart, strength and determination to win.

Peek’s striking is built around his kicks. He comes out with heavy low kicks that he loads up on before using this same wind up motion to set up his heavy right hand. He comes forward with pressure almost always, except when he’s trying to catch his breath. He throws wild shots trying to take the head off his opponent, often throwing awkward downward hammerfists to try to hit his moving target from in tight. He likes to throw high kicks in space as well which carry a lot of power but we see less of them as he gasses.

The defense of Trevor Peek is his offense. The wind up on his punches gives his opponents chances to counter and catch him before he throws, but he just resets and goes again with a little head movement. He’s as tough as they come and refuses to back down from a slugfest, even when he’s being outstruck. We saw this determination against Malik Lewis on the Contender Series where Peek was all but finished in the first round before rallying late in the round before earning the TKO in round two. This determination has been huge for his success but with the amount of damage he takes, it’s only a matter of time before he’s caught defenseless and is knocked out.

Peek’s grappling has shown slight improvements with the addition of some reversals from the bottom position but, like his striking, he still relies heavily on being explosive and simply standing up, likely making Derrick Lewis very proud. Chepe Mariscal found a lot of success with throws from the body lock to get Peek down where he was able to work to the back and attack a rear naked choke, but Peek was able to escape and force the fight back to the feet.

All of these explosive movements wear on fighters and often zap their energy before the third round. That’s no exception for Peek as he’s visibly exhausted before the first round is even over. He gives poor visuals to the judges with his hands on his hips or hanging on the cage, trying to get a small break from the furious pace he refuses to stray from. His strikes come in slower and he’s even easier to hit in between his strikes but his pace barely slows. He pushes through exhaustion until he can sense his opponent getting worn down and then turns up the pressure even higher, knowing that they’ll likely break if he just keeps coming forward and throwing with power.

Neither of these fighters are going to be the go-to film study to learn quality technique but they make for fun fights and have found a way to be successful to this point regardless. Both guys are extremely tough and eat a lot of damage to dish out their own, so I’m expecting a war here with little technical aspects to break down.

There are two keys that I believe could play a huge role in the outcome however. For Peek, it’ll be the kicks. His leg kicks are very powerful and he can shorten the wind up just a bit, he’ll find the mark with them consistently against Yahya. Yahya has struggled to react to or even see the low kick and his leg stays firmly planted, allowing his opponent to dish out maximum damage. If Peel commits to targeting the front leg, it won’t take long before it opens up the head kick and right hand.

For Yahya, I’d like to see him utilize his knees. Peek uses a lot of dipping head movement when he’s advancing and he’s been caught with knees up the middle in these situations on multiple occasions. When Peek gets aggressive and gets past the straight punching range of Yahya, Mohammad should have opportunities to land it. He’s flashed this knee along the cage in UAE Warriors; he times it well and has found success landing it to the body. If Peek gets too drastic with the head movement, it’ll likely be the technique that ends the fight.

Prediction

The line movement has shifted dramatically over the last week; Peek opened as a +142 underdog but has since risen to a respectable -158 favorite. This fight could go either way with both men having poor cardio but a will to continue and throw heavy shots. Peek seems like the stronger fighter and, unlike Yahya, he moves forward regardless of how tired he is.

Yahya has shown to shell up along the cage when he begins to get tired and Peek will jump all over these opportunities to swarm with strikes. Yahya’s wrestling doesn’t seem to be strong enough to control Peek for long and this will continue to wear on the gas tank of the debuting Yahya.

Outside of getting caught with the knee as he enters, I’m confident Peek gets it done. Yahya’s tough, but he’s been knocked out before and dropped on even more occasions, so Peek to win by knockout feels like a good bet. However, I’m happy to get Peek at under -200 so I’ll take him on the moneyline.

Prediction: Trevor Peek to win (-158 at BetUS)

The post UFC 294: Trevor Peek vs. Mohammad Yahya prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

Basharat is a highly regarded, undefeated talent who will be looking for his fourth straight win in the UFC. Henry, who is coming in as the major underdog, is looking to shock Abu Dhabi and steal the hype of the prospect Basharat.

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Betting Odds

The odds heavily favor the undefeated prospect in Basharat, but the gap seems a bit disrespectful given the resilience and experience of Victor Henry.

• Javid Basharat: -600 (BetUS)
• Victor Henry: +400 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Javid is one of two brothers in the Basharat family to have the entire Bantamweight division on notice. Javid is the older of the two at 28 years old and is 14-0 as a pro. Javid is an incredibly technical fighter with an all-around skill set that keeps him calm and comfortable no matter where the fight goes. He has slick striking, deceivingly strong wrestling and unreal footwork that keeps him defensively sound.

Basharat’s striking is based around his movement. With some of the best footwork in the sport, Javid is light on his feet with quick reactions to spring just out of range of his opponent’s offense while effortlessly springing right back into his own range to land. He keeps his feet under him and very rarely overcommits to his strikes, giving him the ability to leap right back out of range when his opponent tries to counter. His 66% strike defense is amongst the highest you’ll see for fighters with three or more fights in the UFC and it is largely due to his reactions and smooth, flowing movement.

When Javid is looking to land his own strikes, he uses feints to draw out reactions of his opponents before firing off his own offense. His fight IQ is on full display here as well as he excels at identifying defensive openings and attacking them with one or two quality shots before exiting the pocket. He does damage with his strikes because they are so well-placed, but he doesn’t throw a lot of power in them. When he does want to hunt for a finish, he targets his opponent with strikes from closer range like knees and elbows. This differs from a lot of fighters who immediately start swinging with powerful punching combos, leaving themselves flat-footed and at risk of being countered. Everything in Basharat’s game is defensively oriented, making sure, first and foremost, that he’s not in danger of taking legit damage before he works his offense.

The wrestling of Basharat has been impressive as well. Going against a high-level wrestler in Tony Gravely, he was able to defend takedowns extremely well, only allowing two on thirteen attempts. When his opponent is able to get to his hips and knows he isn’t in position to dig for underhooks, he creates scrambles with his defense which allows him to reset and defend where he can stuff the head, dig underhooks, etc. His timing on the feet make him a dangerous grappler offensively as well. He times his double and single leg attempts as his opponent goes to strike and has been effective at finishing the takedown from here. He utilizes his upper body to create smothering pressure on his opponent which allows him to transition into better positions for him to work his ground and pound while hunting submissions

While the defense-first mentality of Basharat has been the main factor in his success, it has shown some spots where he may get into trouble as well. Against both Trevin Jones and Mateus Mendonca, we saw Javid’s opponent come forward with their own feints. As Javid is so reliant on his footwork to evade shots, he begins to back up which allows his opponent to continue marching forward with feints and backs him to the cage. He uses good lateral movement to get out of these spots, but a fighter with better footwork may find success in pinning him to the cage where his evasive movement is much less effective.

Mendonca was able to find success with the leg kicks as well against Javid. As he moves out of range, he’s susceptible to the calf kick and, with the way he turns his leg inward when defending, it leaves the meat of the calf wide open for devastating leg kicks. It is worth noting that this, as well as his issues with getting backed to the cage, were early on in the fight and he adjusted nicely to start engaging as his opponent started to begin moving forward with their strikes. His impeccable timing allowed him to land first in these exchanges before disengaging.

His opponent is the 36-year-old Victor Henry. Henry is a seasoned veteran with a 23-6 pro MMA record coming into this weekend. Henry is a well-rounded fighter with eight submission finishes but he’s done most of his work on the feet thus far in the UFC. He’s an extremely entertaining fighter who uses pressure, volume and resilience to break his opponents down and outwork them on the feet while being a danger off his back should his opponent try to take it to the ground.

On the feet, Henry keeps an unreal pace with his constant forward pressure and striking output. Though he’s only fought three times with the UFC, he has 45 minutes in the octagon already. His 8.67 significant strikes per minute over that time would rank third among all active fighters and first in the bantamweight division with Sean O’Malley in second with 7.29 per minute so to say his pace is insane would be an understatement. 

Defensively, he uses a lot of head movement to avoid shots or he’ll roll with the punches to reduce the impact but he rarely stops pushing forward with his own offense. A large part of his success is based around him being able to take the shots coming at him and firing back twice as many. He isn’t the most technically sound striker when he does throw; his shots often loop as he retracts and he can get out of position defensively a lot, leaving him in range for the counters with little place to move his head to avoid them.

Henry has displayed tremendous defense in the wrestling department in his last three bouts, but he has yet to secure a takedown with only two official attempts. With nine submission wins, I’d expect to see him attempt to take the fight to the ground. Though he isn’t attacking from top position, he’s proven to be a handful off his back as he’s constantly throwing up submission attempts to, at the very least, cause scrambles where he can get back to his feet. He mainly attacks armbars and leg locks, requiring him to fold up which does put him in danger of catching ground and pound when he hasn’t got an arm or leg in danger.

It goes without saying but Victor Henry’s motor rarely slows throughout the course of the fight, no matter how grueling of a pace he sets. He slows towards the end of rounds and he becomes easier to hit as the fight wears on, but offensively, he’s always coming forward. This pace has broken a lot of opponents and it is something to watch in this matchup against Basharat who seems to fade a bit when he isn’t able to dictate the pace. Both men have excelled at setting the pace in their fights in opposite ways. Basharat chooses when to engage and when to get out of range to look for openings while Henry forces himself into range and is constantly working to outland his opponent. It’ll be a key factor for both men to focus on setting this pace.

Fight Prediction

While Henry’s pressure and pace could give Basharat trouble over time, I think Javid’s movement and distance management will help him to control how often he has to exchange in the pocket. Victor Henry has a tendency to bait out the left hand as he goes to throw which has made him a bit easy to telegraph when he’s going to fire off his offense.

While this can help when trying to draw out reactions from stationary counter strikers, this is a read Basharat will likely pick up on and he’ll begin to time Henry’s movements to land his shots before getting out of range. Henry has never been finished in 29 pro fights and with Basharat’s last finish coming pre-UFC (on the Contender Series), I’m not willing to bet on him getting the finish.

Prediction: Javid Basharat to win by decision (-150 at BetUS)

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Adrian Yanez is coming off a round-one knockout loss to Rob Font at UFC 287 after going 5-0 to start his career in the UFC. The Houston product was looked at as one of the top talents on the rise at Bantamweight before his loss to Font and a win against Martinez would go a long way in getting another shot at the top 10.

Jonathan Martinez got the win his last time out in a unanimous decision against Said Nurmagomedov. It was a controversial win nonetheless as many saw Nurmagomedov as the winner but it was the fifth win in a row for the FactoryX prospect. 

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Betting Odds

This one has been a coin flip since the line opened. There’s been slight movement back and forth with Martinez currently settled as the slight favorite:

• Jonathan Martinez -125 (BetUS)
• Adrian Yanez -105 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Adrian Yanez, 29 years old, is 16-4 as a pro and is the #14 ranked bantamweight in the UFC. Yanez has found most of his success in MMA by relying on his boxing. His left jab is well-timed and he uses it to pull his opponent in and as they try to counter, he dips the head off the center line and fires back with a counter combination of his own. Yanez’s pressure and toughness also play a big role in his game plan as he’s willing to get caught with shots to land his own, rarely put on the backfoot.

The striking of Yanez is always a fun study. It all starts with the left hand from the orthodox boxer. Not only can he utilize the jab to find the range and lure in his opponents to try and counter, but he uses it beautifully as a feint to open up holes for combinations/entries that begin with the right hand. When fighting southpaws that take away the jab, he’s shown to be well-versed at timing the hand fighting of his opponents to land the left hook instead, getting over the arm that’s stifling the jab to still land.

The timing and pace of Yanez’s striking has been a key to a lot of his finishing sequences and most effective exchanges as well. He doesn’t always throw with blistering speed and explosiveness; he likes to come forward and throw with less intent, waiting for his opponent to react. When they try to counter or defend heavily, this is where he’ll turn up the tempo with his shots and fire off two or three powerful shots that often target the body and head. This is paired with his quick in and out footwork that he relies heavily on to get just out of range while keeping himself in position to reset his feet and begin his forward march once again.

One thing that can get Yanez in trouble on the feet is this backward movement when defending. His defense when his opponent blitzes forward is movement oriented and therefore when he isn’t able to completely evade with his head or feet and his opponent’s still in position to throw, he’s often there to be hit at the end of punches or kicks. He’s resilient and often takes this damage with little issue and continues to press the pace, but this wasn’t the case in his most recent bout against Rob Font where he was finished for the first time in his career.

When his opponents are able to keep him on the outside, kicks to the leg seem to be the most effective strikes you can land. He keeps his right hand high with the elbow tight to the rib cage which gives him a good defensive base to block incoming kicks to the body and head from his opponent’s left side, but he isn’t as proficient at checking/evading the low kicks. There are very few fighters in the Bantamweight division that can stand and box with Yanez so utilizing rangier techniques like kicks have been, and will need to continue to be a big part of the game plan of his opponents.

His opponent is the 18-4, Jonathan Martinez. Martinez, also 29, is another technical striker but unlike Yanez’s boxing-oriented style, he finds his success with a Muay Thai style of kicks, elbows and knees. He uses the left kick as his main weapon while reading his opponent’s intentions when they attempt to close the distance and counters accordingly.

Easily the best weapon for the southpaw Martinez is his left kick. There’s something different to the way those FactoryX fighters throw leg kicks and Martinez is amongst the best at it. His kicks are extremely quick with little tell but land with so much impact that you’d think he’s winding up with everything he has. Though he’s had the most success, his head and body kicks seem to land with similar power.

The footwork and timing of Martinez are the main reasons he’s found so much success in kicking range. He does a beautiful job of gauging distance to know when he’s exited the range of his opponent’s punches while still being in range to land kicks. He’s very aware of his distance at all times as well; even in chaotic flurries or clinches, he often fires the left kick to the body as his opponent works to get out of range and lands it perfectly.

Other aspects of Martinez’s striking that make him so dangerous are his reads and counters. While he isn’t the most impressive with his hands, he’s great at timing his opponent’s entries and reading their head movement to know what shots to throw when they do attack. A prime example comes against Cub Swanson; Martinez identified that Cub was dipping his head to the right as he blitzed in so he started countering with the upward elbow from his left side. As this becomes less effective and misses high, he quickly changes the strike he uses to time Cub’s entries to the left uppercut which chambers lower and meets Swanson’s chin as he comes in.

Though he’s looked great at finding the right one-shot counters for situations, he doesn’t fare as well when his opponent stays aggressive and continues to land in the pocket. Martinez’s hands are quick but they aren’t super tight when he’s forced into firefights and his chin is often left open. You see him get caught with some good strikes in these exchanges where his striking arsenal is limited. He does have a strong clinch which slows the striking pace down and allows him to reset the situation and even look for takedowns if he feels the need.

The grappling of Martinez has been used mainly defensively but has been sharp. Averaging just 0.46 successful takedowns per 15 minutes, he doesn’t try to take the fight to the ground often. Instead, he likes to work for control along the fence with underhooks and good head position under the chin of his opponent. Off his back, he excels at finding reversals and working back to his feet. 

Pitting the Muay Thai style of Martinez against the aggressive boxing of Yanez is top-tier match-making by the UFC. Both excel in areas that pose a real threat to the style and skill set of one another. Martinez’s left kick from southpaw could really eat up the front leg of the forward-pressing Yanez, hindering the movement and base of the boxer. When Martinez is forced into the pocket, he has the strong clinch game that could temporarily neutralize the pressure of Yanez and great knees that could catch Yanez when he dips his head as he often does when entering and defending.

For Yanez, he pushes a pace that has shown to affect Martinez negatively. Against Said Nurmagomedov, he was bothered by the diversity and volume of strikes that Nurmagomedov threw at him and began to reach with his hands to try and defend, leaving him open for the follow up shots. Though Yanez may not have the striking arsenal of Said, he marches forward and uses tons of feints to draw out reactions and attacks the openings in the defense that Martinez may begin to present as he gets more uncomfortable. If Yanez is able to get inside of Martinez’s kicking range and force the fire fight, he has much cleaner boxing and plenty of finishing power.

Prediction

The oddsmakers know how close this one is going to be with the line opening and, for the most part, staying at even. I think there’s a good path to victory for both guys, however, I think Yanez has a slightly better chance. With his pace and finishing power in the hands, he’s got a shot to finish the fight at any point over three rounds. While Martinez is powerful, he doesn’t pose the same one shot knockout power outside of the head kick (which Yanez defends very well) and knees. 

If Martinez is going to find success with the kicks, I believe it’ll be to the leg. As long as Yanez doesn’t stop coming forward and lands his own punches, the judges have (for better or for worse) consistently favored damage to the head over damage to the leg, barring a near TKO from leg kicks. To me, this gives Yanez an upper hand, albeit slight, if the fight goes to the cards while being a threat to finish the fight at any point. I wouldn’t be surprised by either man pulling it off but with coin flip odds, I’m taking Yanez.

Prediction: Adrian Yanez to win (-108)

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The post Adrian Yanez vs. Jonathan Martinez prediction | UFC Fight Night 230 appeared first on The Body Lock.

At only 22 years old, the South African product Saaiman has already gathered three victories in the UFC. Meanwhile, 25-year-old Christian Rodriguez is coming off the biggest win of his career after beating Raul Rosas Jr on the main card of UFC 287.

This should be a war between two high-level strikers who are looking to embolden their name on the UFC’s list of potential challengers to the rankings at 135 lbs.

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Betting odds

This is a fight that both fighters have been calling for but the oddsmakers have dubbed Rodriguez the slight favorite in this matchup between Bantamweight prospects.

• Christian Rodriguez: -140 (BetUS)
• Cameron Saaiman: +110 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Christian Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect that was put on many people’s radar after his unanimous decision win of Raul Rosas Jr. In that matchup, he showed great wrestling and grappling to largely win the ground exchanges vs the credentialed Rosas. His last few fights have seen his wrestling defense tested but in space, he’s a technically sound striker.

Rodiguez’s striking is simple but effective; he relies mainly on straight punches down the middle that he times well as his opponent comes in. He dips his head off the centerline in the exchanges to allow himself the opportunity to throw more than one shot at a time while still avoiding damage from his opponent. He mixes in a good high guard to block the combinations of his opponent when they start first while peaking through, ready to fire back with his own offense.

His striking arsenal has seemed to be limited to ones and twos but he’ll throw more powerful hooks at times when he has his opponent backed to the cage and he awaits the lateral movement. Christian does a good job of switching stances and setting up the high kick from both sides, often after a 1-2 combination to hide it. He doesn’t mix them in as much as I’d like to see as he favors a more defensively-friendly striking approach, keeping himself in position to defend and landing the better shots.

Rodriguez has been able to hang with and, at times, outperform some talented wrestlers from Jonathan Pearce to Joshu Weems and Raul Rosas Jr at Bantamweight. He’s extremely proficient with his chokes and not only finished Weems with the anaconda choke, but got Pearce deep in a guillotine as well. In this bout against Pearce, he lost the majority of the wrestling scrambles against his bigger opponent but has since shown great improvements here. When we saw him against Rosas, he won a majority of the scramble situations and was able to keep dominant position.

Cameron Saaiman is only 22 years old with a pro record of 9-0 with three wins in the UFC already. He’s a dynamic striker that switches stances constantly, blitzing with combinations that never seem to begin from the same spot. He has good power in both his hands and kicks and mixes them well, targeting the head, body and leg equally.

Saaiman is a true switch stance fighter with the way he mixes his strikes up from both stances. He’ll throw kicks to all levels from both sides and start combinations with the jab as well as the power hand regardless of stance. His strikes are quick but his blitzing style makes it easier to read when he’s coming in. He also begins a lot of entries by dropping his hands and relies on head movement during the combination to avoid getting hit.

A fighter this early in his career, both in age and mileage, he’s learning and improving rapidly. We’ve seen a lot of these improvements in his wrestling. He’s been taken down with relative ease since joining in the UFC but he’s shown consistent progress in his ability to get back to his feet or scramble for top position to work his ground and pound. He’s active off his back with submissions and reversal attempts but I’d like to see improvements in his takedown defense to prevent himself from getting put on the bottom in the first place.

Rodriguez is the more technical striker in this matchup and he’ll have a four inch reach advantage over Saaiman. Christian loves to use straight shots that catch his opponents as they move in and he has great timing on those strikes to land at optimal distance.Saaiman’s blitzing attacks from the outside could present Rodriguez with perfect opportunities to react and counter with these straight shots.

For Saaiman, I think the key to winning this is going to be his kicks. Rodriguez likes to protect the head with his high guard, often leaving his body open to be attacked. Saaiman’s kicks are an underrated part of his game; they’re quick, they land with a lot of power and he can throw them effectively from either southpaw or conventional. These kicks should help deter the constant forward pressure of Rodriguez who is trying to stay close to his opponent at all times, giving Saaiman the room he wants to dictate when they engage. If he can land the kicks effectively to the calf and body, it’ll begin to open up more opportunities to blitz in without getting caught.

Prediction

These are two very young, very promising prospects in a division flooded with talent. They’re both gifted strikers with developing grappling that has made them more well-rounded as they accumulate cage time in the UFC. I’m expecting to see a better version of both guys Saturday but I believe Rodriguez gets it done.

Rodriguez is so technically sound both in his offensive selection as well as defensively. His timing to land the jabs and crosses before his opponent can find the mark is impressive and will likely be a big factor against Saaiman. I think the pressure on the feet from Rodriguez will add to the struggles for Saaiman as this will make it harder for him to find the space he needs to work his own offense.

When Saaiman is forced into striking exchanges in tight, he isn’t nearly as effective while Rodriguez’s head movement, guard and counters are all crisp in these situations. Neither fighter has shown a noteworthy takedown game but both defend them well, so I don’t see much of this fight taking place on the ground. If it does, Rodriguez seems to hold the advantage here as well.

Prediction: Christian Rodriguez to win -140 (BetUS)

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The post Cameron Saaiman vs. Christian Rodriguez prediction | UFC Fight Night 230 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both fighters are coming off a second-round finish in May of this year. In a division with a surplus of talent outside of the top 15, a win this weekend would likely put either man, at most, one win away from a shot at a ranked opponent at 170 lbs.

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Betting Odds

The odds had steadily risen in favor of Buckley but has since moved back towards Morono, currently close to the opening line:

• Alex Morono +141 (BetUS)
• Joaquin Buckley -171 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Alex Morono comes into this one with a pro record of 23-8. At 33 years old, he’s a UFC veteran of seven years and is 12-5 in the promotion. He’s a very technical boxer who excels when he’s able to keep range and pop in and out to land his strikes while evading his opponent with slick movement. His best trait is his jab; he times it extremely well and works behind it beautifully to set up the rest of his punches. He likes to follow it up with the right cross before ducking to his right to avoid the counter, throwing the left hook as he moves back out of the pocket.

His footwork plays a big role in his success on the feet as well as he uses quick, bouncing movement in and out of striking distance and feints to draw out his opponent’s attack before evading and landing his own shots. He’s great at pulling opponents in as he inches backward before exploding into a stiff jab that lands in between their steps forward.

Defensively, he relies heavily on movement both with his head and feet to avoid his opponent’s shots. He doesn’t engage in a ton of wild striking exchanges but when he does, he’s aware of where he’s vulnerable and uses his head movement and high guard to avoid taking too much damage before escaping. This head movement does get him in trouble at times as upward strikes (knees, uppercuts, etc.) land as he moves and can do big damage.

Morono’s lone loss in his last six bouts was against Santiago Ponzinibbio, where he was winning through two and a half rounds before getting dropped with a big right hand. He took this fight on short notice and it showed in his cardio but this is a trend that we can see in other fights of his that worries me. His game is so predicated on being able to get in range to land before quickly exiting or raising the guard to block the counters and when his gas tank starts to run low, these defensive pillars start to crumble.

Though Morono is very skilled at fighting a technical boxing match, he has had a tendency in some of his more recent fights to throw a bit wild. He stops the bouncing movement and plants his feet to throw looping power shots because he doesn’t carry a ton of natural power in his hands. He gets caught up in trying to land the knockout blow that he stops doing what makes him so dangerous. Sayif Saud got him to stop doing so in the corner between rounds of the Tim Means fight which led to much more effective striking early in the second round. When he stays composed and trusts that he’ll hurt his opponent without overexerting himself, he looks like a top 15 welterweight.

His opponent is the always dangerous Jaoquin Buckley. Buckley, 29, is 16-6 in his career and 6-4 since joining the UFC in 2020. Buckley is an extremely powerful, explosive striker. He’s a southpaw who thrives when he can set up and land the left high kick. He uses a lot of movement around the octagon to create angles and blitz into his combinations which often end with this head kick. 

His strikes get a bit wild when he enters as he favors the powerful hooks to trap his opponent and force them back to the cage where he can unload. When his opponent engages with him, he doesn’t feel the need to headhunt; he understands the value of body shots and rips nasty hooks to the midsection, draining the gas tank of opponents before firing to the head.

Buckley relies a lot on head movement and counters for defense. He’s shown a tendency to get picked apart by jabs and other straight shots that can land quickly but he usually adjusts and begins to dip around these, opening up spots for his powerful counters. 

With someone with the size and explosiveness of Buckley, you expect him to gas quickly and although his volume rarely decreases, his explosiveness and technique begin to diminish in the later stages of round two. He throws a lot of strikes for someone his size and with the heavy use of kicks and lateral movement, it’s not surprising.

Buckley’s volume has been a big part of his success but it also gets him trouble when he isn’t able to find the mark which is often, only landing 37% of his significant strikes. When he starts to hit air, his gas tank begins to deplete and you notice his movement slow and he gets easier to hit. His shots, which are already a bit wide, get even more telegraphed and makes him easier to avoid in space and counter in between his shots.

The first key, in my opinion, in this fight will be the left high kick of Buckley. It’s his best weapon and he throws it often; meanwhile Morono has struggled to defend against this in the past against southpaws. Morono found some success in negating the head kick of Tim Means by focusing on moving to the left at distance but when he’s forced to move to the power side, he doesn’t always see it coming. Buckley will need to utilize his movement and set up blitzes to make Morono exit to Buckley’s left where he’ll land the high kick easier.

Another aspect of this matchup to note is the difference in these two welterweights’ striking styles. For Buckley, he’s rarely throwing straight shots as he looks to come forward and land big hooks and his high kicks. Morono, when he’s composed and fighting his fight, thrives on using movement to evade blitzes and timing his jab and right hand as his opponent opens up.  Buckley’s tendency to wind up on his shots should give Morono the chances he needs to time his advances with either counters or by shuffling out of range.

Prediction

If Alex Morono tries to come out in this one like he did against Tim Means, it’ll likely be a short night for him. He telegraphed his strikes and planted his feet, making him much easier to hit. Buckley will have a major advantage in those kinds of exchanges and, with his power, will almost certainly get the finish.  

However, if Morono fights smart and stays light on his feet, working his jab and the right hand, I think he has a good shot at outlasting Buckley and taking it on the cards. Neither man has great cardio but if it gets to the later stages of the fight, it’s likely because Buckley has done a lot of swinging and missing, so the longer the fight goes, the more it favors the underdog in Alex Morono. With Sayif Saud in the corner of Morono, I don’t see him coming out overly aggressive again. I believe he has the defense to avoid the big shots from Buckley often enough to earn the decision win.

Prediction: Alex Morono to win +141 (BetUS)

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With 20 knockouts and 17 first-round finishes between the two, they likely won’t need that long to get the biggest win of their career.

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Betting Odds

The odds heavily favor the Philadelphia product, Joe Pyfer but the power of Alhassan could make for a big payday if you like betting on the underdog:

• Joe Pyfer -450 (BetUS)
• Abdul Razak Alhassan +325 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Many will remember Joe Pyfer for his second run on the Contender Series last year where Dana White reminded the rest of the contestants that if they want to make it to the UFC, “be Joe Pyfer”. Pyfer, 27, has a professional record of 11-2 and is a well rounded mixed martial artist with crazy power. 

On the feet, Pyfer stalks his opponent and forces them back to the cage with feints and steady pressure with his jab. He’ll mix in kicks to the body, occasionally targeting the head, but they are mainly used to prod at the mid-section to open up opportunities for his right hand. Pyfer’s right hand is one of the best in the middleweight division. It carries a ton of power and is deadly accurate whether he throws it as a solo strike or behind the left hand. He times his opponent’s movement and entries and understands distancing very well, often landing it with perfect extension without overcommitting. 

The wrestling of Pyfer is another aspect of his game where you can tell just how powerful he is. His takedowns often come from space where he can wait for his opponent to think about throwing and shoot at the hips. Once he gets there, he’ll often latch onto the single leg before picking up and dumping his opponents with ease. 

When he’s in top control, he uses good forehead pressure to keep his opponent flat while he transitions, looking for submissions and ground n pound. Training out of Philly with the likes of Sean Brady, you know he’s been drilling his submissions but they’ve still been a work in progress. He’s good at advancing to positions where he can attack chokes but he’s struggled to maintain these positions and get the finish in the UFC.

Though there is a ton to love about Joe Pyfer’s game, there are a few areas of concern. The first being on the feet when his opponent is able to move laterally around the cage quickly. Joe likes to walk forward, keeping his opponent in front of him and when they bolt out to his left, he’s a little late to react and he’ll take a big step in with his front foot and look for the big shovel hook to the liver. This puts him in a bad situation should his opponent plant their feet after they’ve gotten the angle and sit down on a right hand.

Pyfer’s cardio is one other aspect of the game that causes a bit of worry, though we haven’t seen him fight into the third round yet in the UFC. We have seen him on the stool after one round against a few guys though and he’s looked more tired than you’d hope. Luckily, he’s game isn’t predicated on volume and he’s so naturally powerful so his offense doesn’t really suffer, but I worry how it’ll affect his ability to avoid damage

His opponent is the heavy hitter, Abdul Razak Alhassan. Alhassan is 38 years old and 12-5 as a pro with all 12 of wins coming by knockout (11 of those in the first round). He’s the definition of dangerous and if you reach or get off-balance, his right hand is powerful enough to stop anyone.

Alhassan has primarily been a striker in his UFC career, earning six wins with the promotion with explosive power in his punches and kicks. His most utilized weapon is his right hand; he likes to wait for his opponent to throw out a strike where he can dip off to the left and send an overhand missile hurling towards his opponent. Though it’s powerful, he loads up and telegraphs it badly and is often swinging and missing. That said, it only takes one shot for him to put someone’s lights out so as long as he can sling it, he always has a chance.

The kicks of Alhassan are the other major part of his striking game. He loves to dig kicks mainly to the body and leg but as we saw against Alessio Di Chirico, he has the ability to keep that power with high kicks as well. He does a lot of damage to the front leg of his opponents and is willing to switch stances to target different areas. Against lefties, he’ll switch from his conventional stance to southpaw so he can throw the outside leg kick and do damage to their lead calf before switching back to orthodox. Similarly, he’ll switch to southpaw against conventional fighters to dig the body kick to the open side of his opponent’s stance while consistently attacking the calf when he’s in his normal, conventional stance.

The game plan of Alhassan has very seldom strayed from swinging heavy leather but we did see him try to work in a new wrinkle into his attack against Claudio Ribeiro and that’s the wrestling. He was explosive with his shots early on and times them well, but was unable to finish any of the attempts. At 38 years old, it’s hard to believe that this will become an area where he excels, but it’s nice to see him mix in level changes and give his opponent more to think about which will open up more opportunities to land the big shots on the feet.

That being said, the defensive wrestling of Alhassan has been a major weak point for him in the UFC. He keeps his feet planted to keep himself ready to counter wildly with the right hand and, given how easily his opponents can see him load it up, opponents are able to time their takedowns attempts and often get him down when they get to his hips. We saw him struggle to stay on his feet against Joaquin Buckley and even more against Jacob Malkoun who was able to surpass 11 minutes of control time against Alhassan. Though he’s been thrown around with trips and single legs, he’s always shown a good ability to get back to his feet without taking too much damage or giving up submission opportunities. He does this mostly with brute strength and fighting to get up this way so many times wears on the gas tank which is already a problem.

The motor of Alhassan has been his biggest weakness. As his 11 first-round knockouts may suggest, he comes out strong and does his best work in the first five minutes. Outside of this first round however, he’s 1-4 with four decision losses and earned his only win outside of the first in the first 30 seconds of the second round against Ribeiro. His strikes become even easier to read and he’s not nearly as nimble when defending takedowns and striking blitzes. Against Buckley, we saw him shell up a few times along the cage while Buckley teed off in the second round. That isn’t going to be a viable strategy against natural Middleweights like Pyfer.

Joe Pyfer is the large favorite in this one and it’s easy to see why. I believe he’s better everywhere in terms of technique and skill but Alhassan has the nuclear option with the right hand. If Alhassan is able to pull off the huge upset, it’ll be because he catches Pyfer sleeping in a striking exchange and lands that big shot.

For Pyfer, it’d be smart to utilize his explosive wrestling game early on and deplete the gas tank as much as possible before he tries to stand with Alhassan. Pyfer should be strong enough to hold Alhassan down more than some of his past opponents who took a more wrestling-heavy approach and that’ll make Alhassan work even harder to return to his feet where he has a shot. In the striking exchanges, he needs to work the jab and follow it with the straight right hand. The technical striking of Pyfer is something we’ve seen Alhassan struggle with at range and the power of Joe Pyfer is enough to stun and likely stop Abdul.

Fight Prediction

Outside of a knockout blow landing in a flurry from Alhassan, I don’t see a path to victory for him. Pyfer could showcase his wrestling to not risk getting clipped and to hunt for his third career submission victory. If he wants a more violent finish, I still think he’ll utilize his wrestling early before standing and trading with Alhassan in the later part of round one into round two.

Currently, the odds for Alhassan to win by knockout in the first is +900 which is absolutely worth a hedge because. As we know all too well, anything can happen in MMA but I’m confident Pyfer gets this one done inside the distance.

Prediction: Joe Pyfer to win inside the distance -250 (BetUS)

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The post Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan prediction | UFC Fight Night 229 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Rendon will be making her debut with the UFC after a perfect 5-0 start to her MMA career. Vidal got an impressive win in her debut and is looking to score another finish to continue her climb towards the top 15.

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Betting Odds

The odds favor the Vidal over the debutant, but the line has shifted slightly towards Rendon throughout the week:

• Tamires Vidal: -225 (BetUS)
• Montserrat Rendon: +185 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Tamires Vidal is 25 years old and is 7-1 as a pro. She’s a powerful striker with a willingness to engage in grappling and chase submissions. We saw her take down Ramona Pascual in her debut with a flying knee to the body that was too much for Pascual to fight through. Vidal has a lot of areas to improve in, but she was a solid base to be successful at 135 lbs.

Vidal’s stand up has improved slightly over her last few fights but still lacks technique. She’s usually looking to set up or wildly swing the right hand from her orthodox stance. In her last fight before her UFC debut, she was outclassed on the feet by a former boxer who made her swing and miss constantly. She doesn’t set up the right hand very well but it carries a lot of power and has begun to set up her right kick. This is a wrinkle we saw her add against Pascual; she uses the right hand to hide the kick that follows from the same side, targeting mostly the body and leg.

The grappling of Vidal is submission-oriented, often giving up position to go for heel hooks and other submissions. She doesn’t get a lot of takedowns herself, but when she does try to get the fight to the ground, it’s usually trips from the clinch. She uses the looping right hand to force clashes between her and her opponent, giving her the opportunity to snag the clinch.

Tamires is a young fighter who’s improving steadily but she has a lot of room for improvement. On the feet, she gets caught with a lot of strikes as she seems so focused on finding the right hand that she doesn’t see shots coming back at her. Her motor also seems to be lacking as she’s looked gassed by the second round and her looping shots become even more telegraphed.

Montserrat Rendon makes her debut with the UFC after a perfect 5-0 start to her pro MMA career. Rendon is a tough, aggressive striker who doesn’t stop coming forward or throwing hands the entire 15 minutes. She’s gone the distance in all of her fights thus far and has kept the same pace of each and every round.

Rendon’s striking has been simple but effective in her time on the regional scene. She relies on using her jab to pull her opponents in for her to move back and counter with the right hand. She’ll throw the occasional counter left hook when she wants to escape to her opponent’s right, but otherwise, her striking mainly consists of jabs and crosses. She’s more than willing to engage in wild exchanges where she’ll take damage to land her own shots. These situations don’t deter her from coming forward as she’s often pushing the pace directly after they leave the pocket, pumping the jab and measuring for the right cross.

This striking will need to improve if she wants to make it at the highest level of MMA. Her hands are sluggish and have a bad loop at the end that leaves her wide open for counters. Her success in wild exchanges has largely been due to her being more willing than her opponent to throw down; when she’s challenged, she’s often the slower striker and takes the worse shots. At distance, she seems to react to any sort of feint thrown out. The level of fighters she’s faced thus far haven’t been able to effectively capitalize on these issues but she’s going to get pulled into counters against UFC-level strikers.

Despite having two professional grappling matches under her belt, Rendon isn’t able to utilize her wrestling well in the cage. She doesn’t vary it up much in terms of grappling entries; she likes to ram her head through her opponent’s chest like a linebacker trying to tackle a running back before grabbing the body lock. When she has her opponent here, she relies on the outside trip to attempt to get them down and, when it isn’t there, tries to break to strike again.

Rendon is undefeated because of her aggression and toughness. She hasn’t been the most technical striker, isn’t super powerful and isn’t posing too much of a wrestling threat. What she does excel at is pushing the pace constantly and throwing hands regardless of what’s coming back at her. So far, she’s been able to overwhelm her opponents (and judges) with this pressure and hasn’t gotten caught with anything major.

While Vidal is far from the most technical striker on the feet, she should be willing to throw hands with Rendon and if they’re both landing Vidal is likely to get the better of the exchanges. While Vidal has had more success on the ground than Rendon, Rendon does have pro grappling experience and Tamires hasn’t shown the highest IQ on the ground when going for submissions so I don’t think she’s going to find success here should she try to take her down.

Rendon’s pace and toughness are going to be key to winning this one. If she can avoid the big right hand from Vidal and land her straight punches at range, she can wear on her opponent and pull away come the second and third round. They’re both strong bantamweights in the clinch so I’ll be curious if Vidal will be able to get her takedowns from this position or if Rendon will be able to fend her off and keep the fight going at range.

Prediction

This is a much closer fight than the odds have it in my opinion. Vidal will need to find the spots to land her power shots on the constantly moving Rendon and if the fight goes all three rounds, that will favor Montserrat. The power of Vidal and hit-ability of Rendon should give Tamires the advantage in the wild exchanges that are sure to be frequent. I’m not willing to bet against the power of Vidal but also not willing to bet against Rendon’s durability so I’m taking Tamires Vidal to win on the moneyline.

Prediction: Tamires Vidal to win -225 (BetUS)

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The post Tamires Vidal vs. Montserrat Rendon prediction | UFC Vegas 79 appeared first on The Body Lock.