However, his toughest opponent to date stands in front of him next. A former soldier in the French Army, Saint-Denis has undeniable toughness and heart. However, it’s this, plus his top-notch grappling skills and powerful striking that make him such a threat. Currently riding a winning streak of four, Saint-Denis has lost only once in his entire pro career.

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Betting Odds

Matt Frevola will come into the bout as a +190 underdog against the fighter from France.

• Matt Frevola: +190 (BetUS)
• Benoit Saint Denis: -230 (BetUS)

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Fight Breakdown

Matt Frevola is on a first-round finish streak in his last three fights. Surprisingly, at one point he was believed to be a slow starter at times but with the new belief in his KO power we will likely see an aggressive Frevola early. This is also likely because the gameplan going in is probably to shut down the takedowns of Saint-Denis and force him to trade. Frevola is a tough, conventional stance fighter with a big overhand a hard kicks from both sides. Opposite the southpaw Saint-Denis, he will be looking to paw with the left hand and lead his combinations with his right cross and overhand and follow up in combination with the left afterwards.

Frevola tends to be the one moving forward, however he is arguably most dangerous when he is put on the fence as he has a unique ability to be pushed back and then explode out. In his recent streak, he was pressured and then lunged back out with a big superman punch for the knockdown, and also was being backed up before countering a body shot with his back to the cage again for another knockdown. Frevola should never be counted out because at the times where he is being pressed is when he can land the bombs unexpected.

That being said, there are some tells that Frevola offers which Saint-Denis can capitalize on. First, Frevola is very fast but he bites on a lot of feints with his go-to overhand right to roll out on his right side. He also often has difficulty finding his range for his big punches early on in the fight, if Saint Denis can bait out that overhand, he can count on Frevola missing and rolling away towards that side and setup what he throws to that reaction. Saint Denis has a great left kick of his own, standing southpaw himself so if he can time the right hand of Frevola he could catch him rolling onto his power kick side.

Yet, Saint-Denis’ clearest way to victory is to mix everything together and get Frevola to the canvas as often as he can. Frevola is a solid scrambler and wrestler but will give up his back in the process. Saint-Denis has a tremendous blast double, and even better control once he gets it there. He will duck under shoot, which could be done on the overhand read, and he also likes to set up his level change with a left kick, step through left hook. Once on the mat, Saint-Denis immediately gets to lacing the legs beneath him in a triangle of sorts, forcing his opponents to turn away and expose the back. Frevola does so anyway, so expect Saint-Denis to have success finding the opportunities for this transition. One of Saint-Denis’ most seamless grappling techniques is to reach around for far wrist control and whip his legs from the leg lace to the body triangle on the back in a single beat.

Frevola vs Saint-Denis Prediction

Matt Frevola’s keys to victory are stuffing the takedowns, and turning those sequences into scrambles where he can get back to the feet and push the pace. He wants to force Saint-Denis to trade with him at boxing range where he can lead, and counter with the right overhand and left hook.

For Saint-Denis it’s about using his kicks and finding the shot to the hips. Best case scenario would be taking Frevola down in space where he cannot use the cage, however it’s likely he will have to deal with that.

Ultimately I think that Frevola needs to depend on a potential KO to win, whereas Saint Denis has just as likely a chance to stop Frevola, but also out score him with precise striking and grappling control en route.

Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis to win (-230)

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The post Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Godinez, on the other hand, is riding a win streak of three, with decisions over Cynthia Calvillo and Emily Ducote as well as a submission over Elise Reed. Both women are supremely tough fighters and superb grapplers with ever-evolving striking, making this a barnburner matchup in the women’s 115lb class.

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Ricci vs Godinez Betting Odds

Lupita “Loopy” Godinez comes in as the -170 favorite over Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci.

• Tabatha Ricci: +140 (BetUS)
• Lupita Godinez: -170 (BetUS)

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Ricci vs Godinez Fight Breakdown

Tabatha Ricci is a conventional Muay Thai striker, with great explosion, fluid movement and a high output. Her lower height and reach means that she has had some difficulty getting on the inside against some rangier opponents and she usually depends on blitzing forward and combination punching to get there when she does. Every attack she does have in her arsenal she does string together and mixes it all very well, whether its leading with her punches into kicking off the angle to taking out the leg with a low kick into her punching combinations.

Likewise she uses her striking blitzes to hide and set up her takedowns. Ricci owns black belts in both BJJ and Judo, offering and array of grappling skills. Her takedown of choice seems to be the double leg grip to inside reap, a rare technique and almost a modified version of the Judo Ouchi. She will attack that same trip takedown by catching the body kick of her opponents. On the mat she has shown an ability to both pass with pressure and looser passing against opponents whom guard she respects more, but either way looks to get to half guard where elbows present her opportunities to find a submission on a defensive opponent.

Lupita Godinez is likewise a well rounded fighter but finds her roots in the grappling department. As a striker she stands in a lower stance with a tight high guard and tends to stick to sharper fundamental boxing and body kicks. While she may not have the variety of technique that Riici does, she has slick timing and head movement, which can be sometimes missed by fans as she is efficient in the way she moves as she needs to and not much more.

The jab will be the most important tool for her as she usually throws shorter crisper shots, but has to be aware of the variety, especially the kicks coming back at her. Where Ricci utilizes good Judo takedowns and Jiu jitsu mat work, Godinez is a tremendous wrestler so in the clinch expect swift arm drags and snap downs, as she works to off balance Ricci. She is very good at defending takedowns and not allowing her opponents to reset, instead circling and maintaining control positions and working perpetually in wrestling exchanges.

Ricci vs Godinez Prediction

I do believe that the fight will be competitive everywhere, Ricci with a higher output striking but Godinez with more accuracy and potentially more damage visually. I think that it will come down to who gets the edge in the grappling exchanges, and because of her ability to chain wrestle and scramble, I do think that Lupita Godinez controls the top positions more frequently and chips away with enough ground and pound to score more of each round.

Pick: Lupita Godinez to win (-170 at BetUS)

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The post Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

His next opponent, however, is a UFC veteran who has taken on names such as Li Jingliang and Sean Strickland and is coming off back-to-back wins against Benoit Saint-Denis and Abubakar Nurmagomedov. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been in the UFC since 2015, following a successful championship run in Jungle Fight, the largest organization in his native Brazil. With a background in Capoeira and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, dos Santos is a force anywhere the fight takes him.

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Betting Odds

Rinat Fakhretdinov comes in as a decent favorite over the Brazilian.

• Rinat Fakhretdinov: -400 (BetUS)
• Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos: +300 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Fakhretdinov is a conventional fighter with good striking, a lot of power, and exceptional grappling skills. When striking he utilizes his lead arm and leg very actively, using his power jab and lead left hook as well as a constant switch kick left. He essentially works behind the lead shoulder as a defense dipping inwards to slip shots, and then throws a whipping right hand at the odd point, which catches his opponents off guard. He carries great power in his rear hand and throws it unpredictably, behind his constant jabbing and feinting from the other side.

dos Santos is much more spread out with his weapons, switching stance and mixing between wild spinning capoeira and standard solid Muay Thai. He does prefer to strike, and the largest disparity in skill here will be at range. Although Fakhretdinov has good kicks, he is relatively constrained, while dos Santos can work many targets and set up power spins and switches from outside. That being said, because Fakhretdinov likes to hide behind the check left hook and shoulder, he does blade his stance leaving him open to outside low kicks, so when fighting southpaw watch for dos Santos to chip away at the leg.

However, it is unlikely that Fakhretdinov will entertain the striking exchanges for too long, he likes to force his opponents back towards the cage, which is already a good thing to do against a kicker, but her then likes to shoot to the hip against the fence. dos Santos has a resume of strong Eastern European wrestlers on his record and has spent time training with cuban wrestlers in preparation. The result is a very strong defence game on the fence, using a heavy sprawl and chin strap to drive their head up away from the hips.

Yet, Fakhretdinov does a good job of finishing his takedowns by using the waistlock to duck to the back and ride his opponents until they leave and opening. It’s important to get the fight to the floor that Fakhretdinov relies on swiveling to the back and mixing in trips and sweeps in between attempts. Trying to work straight shots is too predictable against a guy who has so extensively prepared to deal with this style.

Prediction

I am inclined to say that Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos shouldn’t really be this big of an underdog. He is gritty, can handle himself anywhere and can clip anyone with enough KO power with his wild striking to always cause an upset. On top of this, recently, he has hung in with very high-level fighters, edging close decisions, regardless of controversy and proving if he makes it a dog fight he is always still in the running.

However, his ability to defend takedowns comes with a caveat, he has been caught just defending and losing out potentially via control time, unable to get himself back into the round after dropping it in this way. It is very likely that the two have a competitive first round, and Fakhretdinov goes to a pressure and control game in the later rounds to win a decision.

I do believe that Fakretdinov will likely win, but I also believe that both men are so durable and consistently competitive with almost anyone that we see a hard-fought decision at the end of the night if not a late stoppage.

Pick: Fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-120 at BetUS)

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The post Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 231 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Usman, who last fought in March, where he lost the rubber match with current champion Leon Edwards, is regarded as one of the best welterweights of all time and one of the best pound-for-pound champions of the current era. He defended his title five times, notching victories over Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington twice each and Gilbert Burns once.

Burns is also the man to give Chimaev his toughest test to date, a three-round war in 2022. He has since marked down one more win, a submission of Kevin Holland at a catchweight in September 2022, before taking off significant time and making his way to middleweight.

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Betting Odds

The line would likely be closer, given both men the appropriate time to train and prepare, but on short notice, Kamaru Usman will come in the +225 underdog

• Kamaru Usman: +225 (BetUS)
• Khamzat Chimaev: -300 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

The general consensus from fans about both Kamaru Usman and Alexander Volkanovski is that both men would likely make it a razor-sharp fight given normal circumstances, but on late notice, it’s a tough puzzle to solve. However, unlike Volkanovski, Usman does have a few added advantages.

Kamaru Usman has always been a big welterweight and known to cut a decent amount of weight. Therefore, he is fighting arguably closer to his natural weight class, without a large weight cut. He is also fighting for the first time in a long time – for only three rounds. From May 2018- March 2023, Usman has fought exclusively in fights scheduled for five rounds, seeing the fifth in 8 of those 10 times. Between the lack of weight cutting and the shorter fight time, Usman can have some confidence that his conditioning and pace will hold up, especially against a guy in Chimaev who is a fast starter and who has showed fatigue in the past.

Chimaev has so far looked nearly unstoppable because he gets his opponents out of the fight in the first round, if not the earliest exchanges of round two with one exception. Chimaev has exceptional wrestling, looking to throw out big flurries of strikes from the opening bell only to set up a blast double, which he can chain around to taking the back and riding his opponents. What he does so well is not only chain his wrestling techniques together, but recycle his choke attempts between control positions, which is what allows him to snatch Darce chokes and other submissions off of wrestling transitions from the back and front headlock positions.

Both men are great wrestlers, but the major differences are the explosive and early physicality of Chimaev, meaning he will likely get ahead in the first round in terms of wrestling, and the submission skills. Usman may be contentious in wrestling exchanges but has to watch his neck, whereas that isn’t likely as great a concern for Chimaev. Usman on the other hand, may want to wrestle to drain Chimaev, who can make mistakes on the feet the more tired he gets.

One of these mistakes is keeping his head on the centre line. Both Usman and Chimaev strike on a line primarily and utilize straight punches. However, usman is good at dipping inside when he jabs, whereas Chimaev shows good head movement in early exchanges but can abandon it the dirtier the fight gets. Gilbert Burns, found success working Chimaev’s body with kicks, but Usman may go to the body with his cross, and lead liver hook, as another means to take away the wind of Chimaev.

Prediction

When both are fresh, I do like Chimaev’s chances. Both men are dominant wrestlers, with powerful striking and knockout power. Chimaev has shown some slick striking mostly prior to his UFC days, and shown great offensive striking in the UFC so far.

However the one blotch on his otherwise perfect performances was Gilbert Burns, where he was dragged into a war, and although victorious did show a lack of fluidity and comfort on the feet when he was forced to take those big deep breathes late in the fight.

Usman is a veteran, and if anyone in his position is set up to take advantage of this in the second half of the fight, it’s him. I do think Chimaev earns points early, and Usman late, if it was all equal I give to the edge to Chimaev banking the first two rounds but at +225, Usman turning the momentum of the fight earlier than that is a decent value.

Pick: Kamaru Usman to win (+225 at BetUS)

The post UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

In order to turn that four into a five, he must get past Elliot, an American wrestler who started his MMA career all the way back in 2009 and his UFC career in 2012. Along the way, Elliot has fought the who’s who of the lighter divisions, defeating former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver at RFA 1 as well as Louis Smolka, Tagir Ulanbekov and Jordan Espinosa in the UFC, among others. He has also competed with Demetrious Johnson for the UFC Flyweight title, as well as John Dodson in his UFC debut.

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Betting Odds

The surging prospect Mokaev will come in as a huge favorite at -430 according to BetUS.

• Tim Elliot: +330 (BetUS)
• Muhammad Mokaev: -430 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Tim Elliot has one of the most awkward fighting styles you could see in MMA. He bombs and weaves on a sporadic rhyme, often lifting his leg and waiting a beat before extending a kick, or doubling and tripping up on the same strike. He will stand square in front of his opponent at times or completely turn away as he shoulder rolls to the point where he essentially turns his back on his opponent. However, this same unpredictability and a constant pressure allow him to get ahead of his opponents and often stay that step ahead for long stretches of fight.

He will box his way in with a flurry, dip off to the side, and then return on the same angle with a blast takedown. His takedowns, because offbeat, are difficult to time for his opponents, which he depends on as they are not always technically sound. He shoots in with his head down so as to drive to his forehead into the midsection, as he elevates the lag without completely changing levels. If one were to time this with a knee down the pipe it could cause major damage, but the odd rhythm or lack thereof from Elliot makes this a problem to solve.

The strange ways in which Elliot is able to dip and angle off with his boxing is very elusive. However, past opponents have found success targeting the body and legs , which are much more difficult to move than Elliot’s head. Mokaev is an excellent kicker. He may not be able to exchange inside the pocket with boxing as smooth as Elliot but from the outside, attacking the legs and the body is a solid gameplan. When targeting the head Mokaev has to use his kicks on the outside to set up his boxing, buckling the lead leg to set up his hands, or getting Elliot to block and freeze with a kick to the body or head. He also has to use his hands then to set up the head kick, because as Elliot dips off he does leave that angle free for a head kick to come behind the punch that Elliot slips.

Elliot can scramble with just about anyone in his weight class. He is exceptional at not only defending takedowns but riding the momentum and scrambling into top position. For Mokaev, he not only has to find a way to secure top control as quickly as possible but to settle as quickly as possible and force Elliot to work from his guard. That means, in positions where Mokaev has a position secured against the cage or in a clinch, the shortest route to a control position is best, if he has a rear waist lock, dragging straight back and getting hooks should be a priority. If he opts for a throw or a drag around, those are the situations where Elliot scrambles into better positions.

Mokaev is very intentional with his positioning once he does secure control. Often watch for him to elect for quarter mount or leg drag when he is working from side control, so that he can force his opponents to give up the back. This is where he needs to put Elliot, as those who scramble rapidly are more likely to roll into turtle to work their way up, and leg drag and quarter mount allow Mokaev to transition seamlessly onto the back.

Prediction

This has all the making for a high-paced and very exciting fight. I do believe that whoever installs themselves as the hammer first and gets going quicker will win a large battle. Both these men like to get after it and be aggressive, and especially for Elliot his odd style works best when his opponents are trying to react to him rather than vice versa.

I do think that we will see a lot of scrambles, but the submission awareness will hold up for both men for the most part. I also think that although they are good strikers, neither are known are big one-shot punchers, so unless Mokaev hits a jumping knee or a flush headlock on Elliot’s slips the fight could definitely last some time.

Mokaev is the better pick, but at -430, it’s not massively appealing. Instead, I would go with the fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -185 on BetUS.

Pick: Fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-185 at BetUS)

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The post UFC 294: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Tim Elliot prediction, odds appeared first on The Body Lock.

The mistake would void Chairez’s victory, and ultimately the fight was deemed a no contest. The two will get to run it back almost immediately however, when they rematch this weekend at UFC Fight Night 230.

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Betting Odds

The line has broadened compared to the two men’s first fight. Chairez was originally a -205 favorite, but will now come in the -340 favorite.

• Edgar Chariez: -340 (BetUS)
• Daniel Lacerda: +250 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Edgar Chairez is best known for his exceptional boxing skills and utilizes the other facets of his game to enhance his primary skills. For example, he will open up his fights with chopping low kicks to stifle his opponent’s movement, for the purpose of catching them in boxing exchanges as the fight continues. As most good boxers in the UFC, Chairez has specifically good head movement on his exits, and tends to roll well with punches when he is caught. His jab is the first line of attack, drawing out counters that he can fade away from, angle off and counter with shots of his own.

Contrastingly, Lacerda is much more wild in his approach. He utilizes all and any weapons he can, as evident in his Brazilian Muay Thai style, making it very obvious that he comes from the Chute Boxe lineage. He will attempt jumping and spinning attacks constantly, which are high-risk high reward. Often missing, costs him energy in the long run, and gain little in terms of scoring, but whether it’s a wheel kick, flying knee or something equally as dynamic, when he does land, it takes these one or two big moments to put his opponent on ice and steal him the round. The biggest knock on this style is when he does have his opponents hurt, his over-exertion looking for the finish leaves him gassed if he cannot get them out of there.

However, this seems to be something he has addressed based on the short time fans saw him fight last. Although he never hurt Chairez in their first fight badly enough to rush a finish, he did come out looking much more patient and composed at the opening bell, than fans are used to seeing. It was also evident that the game plan involved taking Chairez down and earning control time, another indicator of a more thought-out and calculated approach. Chairez was most recently out grappled in his last loss to Tatsuro Taira, outlining potential routes to victory for those who can look to wrestle him. However, in their first fight it was also obvious that Chairez has prepared his offensive grappling opposite Lacerda, quickly establishing a high guard when he was taken down and quickly attacking a choke in the second attempt, which ultimately lead to the false finish.

Prediction

Now that the two men have felt each other’s strengths and seen to some extent the approach the conceived to face one another, it will be fascinating to watch them go back to the drawing board again. Lacerda’s more patient demeanor can only be a good thing I believe, especially if he does land a big shot and takes his timing picking his shots from there. It would be smart for him to still mix in takedowns, as the initial shot highlighted that wrestling is still Chairez’s biggest shortcoming, but must have a better respect for the potential submission threats coming at him from the bottom, and from the initial takedown defence.

For Chairez, the confidence knowing that he can successfully threaten submissions will likely aid him, however at the end of the day, although he was in the dominant position at the end of the fight, it was relatively closely matched until then. At -340, it seems like a steal in a fight where the line should probably be a lot closer, even if Chairez is still the likely favorite.

Pick: Daniel Lacerda to win (+250)

The post Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda 2 prediction | UFC Fight Night 230 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Looking to get back into the win column, the Texan deemed “El Guapo” will have to get past “The Mongolian Knight” Alateng Heili.

The Chinese fighter out of Inner Mongolia is a wrestler by trade who transitioned to MMA and subsequently entered the UFC in 2019. He has since earned himself a record of 4-1-1, with notable wins over Danaa Batgerel and Kevin Croom.

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Betting Odds

Chris Gutierrez will be a huge favorite at -435.

• Chris Gutierrez: -435 (BetUS)
• Alatengheili: +335 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Chris Guttierez is one of the most educated strikers in the sport today. He is accurate and fluid, floating in and out with ease and incredible distance management. He will look to switch stance and tag his opponents with long jabs without overextending, in order to draw out his opponent’s attack so as to pull counter with his left jab or check left hook.

Although Gutierrez has great boxing, it’s really his kicking game that has caused him to stand out. He is very good at managing range in a way to land his spinning hook kicks and back kicks, chopping at the calf in between to stagger and freeze his opponents in place. It is a common notion for his opponents that being the forward pressuring fighter, does render Gutierrez’s style more difficult to pull off however, it always runs the risks of allowing Gutierrez to give space and cut that space off with a devastating knee down the middle or spinning back fist.

Alatengheili is also a very effective striker, although a more basic one. He maintains a deep stance, which keeps him balanced and allows him to drive his punches from the floor up, but doesn’t allow for the same mobility as Gutierrez. Alatengheili sticks to basic boxing combinations done with precision, he likes his slip left, right cross counter, and once he gets his timing down with it, chains on the left hook afterwards. He usually has a build-on approach to his combinations, getting his read with his rear counter and then building his attack from there, playing with different setups and follow ups from the same strike. Watch for the right cross and right overhand early, turned into right hand to left hook and later on mixing in his lead jab and hook to the body to set up the overhand right.

However, because he does favor the lunging right hand in a variety of ways, it can be predictable at times. In his most recent fight, Chad Anheliger was tagged by the right hand consistently, but at one point managed to slip off the cage to his left and counter the right hand with a flush left hook. Gutierrez is a much more proficient striker than anyone that Alatengheili has thus fought, so reading the consistencies in his striking game is probable.

Alatengheili actually comes from a wrestling base, which one would maybe not consider if only seeing him fight in the UFC. It would seem he has fallen in love with knocking his opponents out as even in matchups where it would be textbook knowledge to imply a wrestling gamer plan, he tends to elect to strike. This leads me to believe he will not be chasing a takedown against Gutierrez, although it would be the best course of action. Alatengheili has a tremendous single leg attack, which he finishes both by turning the corner and elevating before landing in side control, and elevates on the center line into a trip out.

Prediction

Alatengheili can make this a far more competitive fight by making the use of his wrestling pedigree. However, based on his past decision making it’s unlikely he will try to enforce this to a large extent. He will look for quick takedowns late in close fights, or in fights he is edging in order to solidify a victory, but this usually happens late after he has already found success striking.

Gutierrez has solid guard retention, which will make it difficult fort Alatengheili to control him on the mat, but Gutierrez also doesn’t typically show much offence off of his back. I believe we will see mostly striking early in the fight with Gutierrez winning fairly confidently, forcing Alatengheili to potentially shoot when it’s a bit too late to come back on the scorecards. Gutierrez is not a massive value at -435 so treat him as a parlay boost.

Pick: Chris Gutierrez to win (-435) as parlay booster

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The post Chris Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili prediction | UFC Fight Night 230 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Going into his fight this weekend at UFC Fight Night 229, Alexander Hernandez is a much more seasoned and experienced fighter, having competed 11 times in the UFC octagon and most recently beaten UFC legend Jim Miller.

His next opponent, the also experienced Bill Algeo is coming off of a submission victory over T.J. Brown in April. Algeo has fought some major names in the featherweight division, including former title challenger and longtime contender Ricardo Lamas and Andre Fili. He has constantly improved between fights and looks to bring the best version of himself against Hernandez.

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Betting Odds

Bill Algeo will come into the bout as the slight favorite, directly off of his April victory.

• Alexander Hernandez: +100 (BetUS)
• Bill Algeo: -130 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Bill Algeo’s original combat sport base is in wrestling. He carries this into all of his fights with his excellent takedowns off of the cage as well as top control however most recently he has become more known for his unique striking ability. Algeo favors a sideways, bouncy karate-esk stance with a snappy lead leg side kick, front kick and blitzing punches. However, as he developed his karate stylings on top of an already versed MMA game, he does not maintain the illusiveness of others who use it. It is not uncommon to see Algeo dip and weave in the pocket and counter with nice hooks, as well as throw a solid switch kick from the outside.

His use of a low guard does mean when he is hit he can be caught cleanly with his head in the air but also tends to roll well with punches. That being said, it is difficult to find one’s way in on Algeo as a stabbing front kick down the centre and lead side kick help him maintain range so that he can enter boxing range on his own terms. He typically throws strikes freely knowing he has an extensive wrestling game, and black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. This is also why he is confident stack passing from top position if he does elect to grapple, leaning on his good submission defence to maintain position and ground and pound from a high postured position.

Alexander Hernandez utilizes a much more crouched and tight stance. He likewise maintains a wide stance, but is more reminiscent of a sprinter, with his knee pointed out forward allowing him to lunge in with his 1-2 and rear leg knees or kicks. He also keeps a much tighter guard. It will be difficult for Hernandez to get inside Algeo’s range, as the shorter fighter, but he needs to do what he does best. Hernandez is one of the best at using his kicks to set up his hands, rather than the usual vice versa. Hernandez will establish his counter step in knee when his opponents moves forward and just as easily use his step in knee on the lead to switch stance and bridge the range to attack from southpaw.

Hernandez usually begins his fights with a relatively basic approach, his jab, cross and kicks making up most of his strike variety. As he finds success he starts to open up with a wider range of tools, making him more effective the longer the fight goes. He needs to establish his low kicks early to attack the bladed stance of Alego and get him biting whenever Hernandez looks to kick, which will open up the stance switch entries into the pocket. From there he has better chance of negating the range and karate style of Alego. Inside Hernandez has the more effective Muay Thai, and although Algeo may on paper be the better grappler, Hernandez is as good a scrambler as any. He will be difficult to hold down unless he is already hurt, however, chasing a grappling match is not in his best interest unless he finds a way to hold position with the cage and land effective ground and pound outside of straight jiu jitsu exchanges.

Prediction

Bill Algeo is definitely dangerous everywhere. If he can keep the fight at range and stick Hernandez with his kicks while constantly avoiding the pocket he could easily out work him. However, I do think that Hernandez has the ability to set up Algeo by going to the lead leg and using his switch hit tactics to get on the inside. Although Algeo has tremendous submission and wrestling ability I do think that the explosiveness and physicality of Hernandez will weight heavy in clinch positions along the cage as well as in his ability to explode back up if he is taken down. If Hernandez is careless in his own control positions and provides opportunities for Alegeo, this could spell trouble, but by sticking to a game plan and not taking unnecessary risks on the ground I do think Hernandez has the edge.

Pick: Alexander Hernandez to win (+100)

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The post Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction | UFC Fight Night 229 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both men are coming off of a loss and a win prior and will look to rebound with a victory this weekend. While Munoz is yet to string two wins back to back in the UFC, he has also consistently avoided two straight losses.

If history is to repeat, it should be his time to add another victory, but Aoriqileng is a jump up in competition. The Inner Mongolia native has fought notable names such as Kai Kara France early in his career as well as Jeff Molina and Aiemann Zahabi inside the UFC octagon.

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Betting Odds

The oddsmakers are torn, making this a pick’em fight.

• Johnny Munoz Jr.: -115 (BetUS)
• Aoriqileng: -115 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Johnny Munoz is an accredited jiu jitsu ace and a long time MMA competitor. His boxing is basic but effective and he utilizes his reach and range very well. From a conventional stance, everything from Munoz’s arsenal comes behind his sharp jab. He is good at reaching long with it and keeping his opponent on the end of his reach, snapping out and setting up the right cross behind it as his opponent moves away. However, while Munoz can stick and move with his straights against some opponents, the more educated strikers force him to revert to his grappling roots quickly.

Munoz has a very threatening guard game. Her has great timing on his level changes, and often does finish the double leg entries. If he feels he is going to be sprawled on however, he is quick to pull guard instead because he is so confident off of his back. Expect him to secure his opponents in his guard with a body triangle until he is happy with his arm position, usually trapping one arm and getting a collar around the neck so that he may open his guard and attack triangles or armbars.

The downside however, is the more time it takes for him to get the control over the posture he wants the more he is willing to stay in a closed guard and let his opponents chip away with ground and pound and control time. Munoz’s guard game in general is very do or die, he either gets the submission or loses out on control and damage. When he is attacking with top game BJJ, he is willing to take risks because he doesn’t mind ending up on his back, this includes wild scrambles to the back and passing that involve big swinging or jumping movements.

Although Aoriqileng has good wrestling and grappling skills himself, it only aids him to keep the fight standing. At times we will likely see him utilize his wrestling in terms of takedown defence and perhaps judo counters to Munoz’s takedowns on the cage. That being said expect Aoriqileng to maintain a striking match as much as possible, he is an aggressive counter puncher with a lot of power.

Aoriqileng likes to march his opponents down, it is key that he utilizes feints as Munoz does tend to reach for punches, which will then allow Aoriqileng to fade and counter. What Aoriqileng does so well is small movements as he moves away from shots, so that he can angle slightly and maintain the range he needs to return fire. Especially, watch for the right cross over Munoz’s jab if the jab comes too frequently, and the right uppercut when Munoz looks to shoot for the hips.

Prediction

This is a very competitive fight, however I do think that Aoriqileng’s consistent ability to stay active on the bottom as he attempts to get to the fence and wall walk will make holding him down difficult.

If he finds himself tied up inside Munoz’s guard that could spell major trouble, so this will require discipline on his part. Munoz has a tendency to reach for strikes if he cannot lead the exchanges. If he gets set first and establishes the pace with his jab and makes Aoriqileng react to him, he could definitely stick and move.

However, if Aoriqileng keeps his feints going, and has Munoz reacting, the consequences are more severe as Aoriqileng is the more educated counter striker, Munoz bites big on feints when he does bite and Aoriqileng hits that much harder.

Pick: Aoriqileng to win (-115)

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The post Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng prediction | UFC Fight Night 229 appeared first on The Body Lock.

For Waterson-Gomez, it’s a chance at redemption in a weight class most believe she truly belongs in. For Rodriguez, it’s about carrying the confidence over from their first encounter and repeating history. For fans, it’s a highly anticipated rematch from one of the most entertaining women’s MMA main events in memory.

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Betting Odds

As one would expect, Rodriguez will come into the rematch as a heavy favorite.

• Michelle Waterson-Gomez: +225 (BetUS)
• Marina Rodriguez: -300 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Although Rodriguez won their first fight, both women scored major moments over the 25 minutes. It was a relatively competitive fight and as we look into the rematch there are plenty both can learn from the first fight and pursue the victory this time around.

The keys to victory for Michelle Waterson-Gomez are getting the takedown and attacking the legs

The most dominant round of their first fight was The Karate Hottie’s, when she was able to secure the fight’s single takedown. Utilizing a good knee staple to pin Rodriguez between the mat and cage, showcased the deficiencies in Rodriguez’s grappling skills. Typically, Rodriguez goes to bridges and wall walking to get back to her feet, and almost definitely has improved since they first met but Waterson-Gomez will still hold a major advantage if she can get to the mat.

How she does this is not easy. Rodriguez does a good job of controlling range and forcing her opponents to shoot from the outside. Waterson-Gomez is already at a height and reach advantage, as well as weight and size. For one to take Rodriguez down, timing is key, allowing her two commit to a shot or baiting out a heavy counter that Waterson-Gomez can intercept and close the distance for a takedown at the same time. The way she did this in their first fight was countering Rodriguez’s superman punch, with a check right hook straight to the undertook and outside trip. Forcing Rodriguez to bite on a counter and clashing into a body lock out in the open is a good way for Waterson-Gomez to initiate the takedown.

In terms of striking, Waterson-Gomez’s most success was in investing in the lead leg. Rodriguez, hunches over her stance so that she can reach forward and cover the most distance with her punches and cover up on the defensive. Waterson-Gomez did a good job of utilizing the lead side kick to damage the knee and the outside low kick on the right to work on the thigh. In particular, the left cross from southpaw to low kick will get Rodriguez to shift backward and take away from her ability to counter, while landing.

For Rodriguez, she needs to keep Waterson-Gomez moving backwards and make use of the clinch. If Rodriguez can control the center of the cage, she can take away Waterson-Gomez’s ability to level change and kick effectively. It also allows her to land from a range where Waterson-Gomez cannot reach her with counter boxing, considering the reach discrepancy.

The biggest success Rodriguez had in their first fight was in the clinch, and forcing Waterson-Gomez to their cage allows Rodriguez to trap her, and clash into the clinch while moving forward. Being the longer and bigger fighter, allows for a particularly effective Thai clinch, making Waterson-Gomez carry her weight and create angles fort strikes. Waterson-Gomez is as game as anyone, but a consistent theme in her fights is regardless of striking numbers and stats, she wears damage on her face, and elbows and knees in the clinch are Rodriguez’s best way of highlighting this visual. Clinching out in the open could potentially open up takedown opportunities where Waterson-Gomez can fight for underhooks or get control of the head but by clinching her against the fence Rodriguez forces Waterson-Gomez to look for a reversal of position before she can seriously attempt a takedown.

Prediction

A lot of factors point towards Rodriguez as the should be victor. She is the more physically imposing fighter, won the first fight and both women are strikers, the area that Rodriguez is one of the very best in. However, at -300 it is hard to make good value on her, and especially considering it is a rematch, Waterson-Gomez will have more data to work off of making adjustments in her preparation and game plan.

Based on how dominant the grappling exchanges were in the first, albeit very little grappling was done, I would be surprised if it is not at the forefront of this game plan, and if she can recognize the most effective ways to set up takedowns, I do think that Waterson-Gomez can at least edge out enough rounds to win a decision, and especially as a +225 underdog this makes her a potentially very valuable pick.

Pick: Michelle Waterson-Gomez to win (+225 at BetUS)

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The post Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Marina Rodriguez prediction | UFC Vegas 79 appeared first on The Body Lock.