In the main event, two of UFC’s middleweight contenders, No. 10 ranked Brendan Allen (22-5) and No. 13 Paul Craig (17-6), are set to collide in a battle that promises to deliver a mix of strategy, skill, and raw power.

Allen, stepping into his first UFC main event, is riding a wave of momentum with five consecutive wins under his belt. Meanwhile, Craig, making his second appearance in the middleweight category, looks to build on the success of his divisional debut victory over André Muniz.

Read on as we dive deep into the latest betting odds, provide a detailed breakdown of the fight, and offer a prediction along with the best bet and pick for this thrilling matchup.

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Allen vs Craig betting odds

Brendan Allen’s a hefty betting favorite but this wasn’t always the case leading up to the UFC Fight Night 232 main event. Initial odds had Allen at closer to -275 with Craig around +200 but they’ve since changed dramatically as it seems money continues to come in on Allen.

• Brendan Allen: -450 (MyBookie)
• Paul Craig: +340 (BetUS)

Allen vs Craig breakdown

I’ve been all-in on Brendan “All In” Allen since his submission win over Kevin Holland, another fighter I’ve backed for years, in his UFC debut. I’ve been Allen in each of his 12 UFC fights and have cashed a lot of tickets thanks to his 10-2 UFC record.

What drew me to Allen is his knowledge of what he does well, his determination to impose his game plan, but also his willingness to make adjustments if an easier path to victory presents itself. All too often, fighters seem to predetermine how they plan to win a fight and continue to force that game plan in the cage even if it’s not working. Allen is not the best striker, grappler, or submission artist in the division. But, he can succeed in all facets of MMA and will often let the fight come to him, using his variety of skills to adjust mid-fight, even mid-round, depending on his opponent.

Allen is an offensively sound striker who uses an intelligent jab and knowledge of angles to cut opponents off and trap them against the cage. From there, Allen’s speciality is finding a safe way into the clinch where his natural strength and fundamental grappling allow him to pin opponents against the cage and land dirty boxing shots in tight. His goal is to drag opponents down from the clinch and either get on top to land heavy elbows or force his opponent to turn over and expose their back. If he gets an opening to get the back, Allen impressively takes the opening, gets his hooks in, and will quickly find the neck. 4 of his last 5 wins have come via rear naked choke following the above game plan. Because Allen’s striking defense is a bit lackluster and his movement is sometimes a touch slow, he tends to struggle against fighters with stout takedown defense and/or pressure-heavy striking. If an opponent can be the one who pushes “All-in” back and force Allen to be the nail in the fight, he struggles to get his game going.

Paul “Bearjew” Craig, on paper, should not be as good as he is. His striking offense is plodding and sloppy. His striking defense is a liability. His wrestling is non-existent. And most of his submission wins have come when he’s on his back and Craig comes from behind for the win. But, eventually, we just have to recognize that this guy, regardless of how he wins, continues to win. Craig is 9-6 in the UFC but is 5-2 since 2020 which includes wins over the ex-champion, Hill, and 2 other ranked or previously ranked fighters. Its ugly, its sloppy, and it often comes as a surprise; but, since 2020, Craig often finds ways to win. His whole game plan centers around baiting his opponent to enter his guard where he then tries to survive long enough for his opponent to make a mistake. His most common submission win is the triangle, which often comes as an opponent postures up in his guard to try and land fight ending ground and pound. Just as an opponent postures up to seemingly end the fight, that’s when Craig secures in his own finish. This survive and thrive style shouldn’t be as successful as it is but Craig has mastered it over the years. He knows his strengths and has found a way to make his weaknesses work for him.

Allen vs Craig prediction

While handicapping a fight comes down to how the skills and styles of the fighters match up, it is also important to consider the lines and the value within those lines. This line is out of hand.

In Allen’s last 3 fights- against lower ranked or unranked opponents- he was a -230, +190, and +100 respectively. Now, against the highest ranked and, arguably, toughest competitor of his career, Allen’s line has ballooned up to a -430. Now, the skill and style matchup in this fight does favor Allen. He is the pointedly better striker, is intelligent and dangerous on the mat, and has shown fight after fight that he continues to grow.

Meanwhile, Craig is an awkward and hittable striker, an excellent submission artist but poor wrestler, and often needs to capitalize on a mistake to win. All skill and style signs point to Allen staying smart and finding Craig’s chin. However, -430 is a steep price to pay.

This comes down to your philosophy as a better. Are you someone who decides who you think will win and then hunts for value through money lines, props, and parlay? Or are you someone who prefers to find value in incorrect or mispriced odds? I’m the former, I prefer to trust my scouting of fighters first and find value second. But, I do not blame anyone whose style is the latter and wants to take the undeniable value in Craig, likely Craig by submission. I, however, will back Allen because I think he’s simply the better fighter with more ways to win.

Next comes finding value. 5 of 6 of Craig’s losses have come via finish and 4 by knockout. But, Allen hasn’t secured a knockout since 2020 and that is his only one in the UFC. Therefore, I handicap Allen getting the finish and the type of finish- knockout or submission- to be near even in terms of probability.

So, my bet will be Allen by submission (+225) rather than Allen by knockout (+125) because the odds are better and I think either outcome is about as likely as the other.

Best Bet: Allen to win by submission (+225)

The post Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt, 28, will, in turn, make his 7th walk into the UFC octagon. He holds a 4-2 record also with three finish wins.

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Betting Odds

Hooper is a sizeable favorite over Leavitt.

• Chase Hooper: -220 (MyBookie)
• Jordan Leavitt: +170 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

There are certain fighters with the reputation of an elite skill because of outside the UFC success; but, when they get into the UFC, that skill isn’t as elite as advertised or the fighters don’t have the other skills necessary to implement it. Chase Hooper has the reputation of high-level grappling and a dangerous submission game, yet, he only has one submission win and all four of his wins have come against fighters no longer on the UFC roster.

The primary indicator for Hooper’s unrealized potential is his wrestling. He only averages 1.4 takedowns a fight at a middling 22% clip. Because he is often incapable of getting the fight to the mat, Hooper is unable to showcase his submission skills. And, in the rare occasions where he has been in a position to implement his reputationally excellent submission offense, Hooper has struggled to hold position long enough to secure the submission.

Instead, what typically happens in Hooper fights is a sloppy, dirty, and gritty clinch fight against the cage where Hooper’s knowledge of grappling position gives him an edge but his undeveloped striking and strength create issues. It is important to emphasize that Hooper is only 24 and should continue to improve significantly fight after fight. Additionally, he should continue to grow into his body and increase his strength. But, so far in his career, Hooper’s fights go one of two ways.

If he is fighting a non-UFC caliber opponent unable to deal with Hooper’s persistent clinch game, Hooper can use cardio, volume, and some grappling to win. However, if an opponent has been UFC-caliber capable of keeping Hooper off the cage, even with a basic jab or leg kick, then Hooper’s lack of striking keeps him from find much if any success.

Most concerningly, though, is Hooper’s lack of defense and his dependency on his chin to absorb shots. His most recent loss was finally via knockout. After years of taking damage without going down, Hooper’s chin finally gave out. Hooper is young, growing, and supposedly has a high level grappling game, but the jury is still out on whether “The Dream” has the full MMA skillset to consistently win at the UFC level.

A bit of a cult-hero because of his…unique…personality and celebration, Leavitt has found his way to put his name on the radar of the UFC brass despite also only 1 win over a fighter currently on the UFC roster. Leavitt is primarily a wrestler who uses awkwardly timed striking and sound defense to close distance where he can engage in the clinch against the cage. His striking offense is basic and slow but varied.

He’s a southpaw striker who is capable of throwing and often landing boxing combinations and a solid back kick. However, his striking output is low; and, while his feints help him close distance, his ability to execute in the pocket is minimal. Instead, Leavitt will typically feint forward, look to trap his opponent, and then clinch against the cage. He too wants to get the fight to the mat but has minimal wrestling to do so.

Leavitt averages 2.3 takedown attempts per fight at at 26% success rate. Leavitt’s main goal is to fight with enough of an off-beat style that he can put his opponent into an unfamiliar position, force them to make a mistake, and then capitalize on said mistake. He has fairly high fight IQ, knowing what he does well, but doesn’t always have the requisite skills to execute once he gets the position he wants. Instead, Leavitt’s success most commonly comes through forcing mistakes while he struggles if opponents are cautious enough to avoid them.

Fight Prediction

Both of these fighters are fun because of their out-of-the-cage personalities and unknown performances in the cage. People like betting on the potential of a fighter because, if it clicks, it’s impressive and satisfying to be able to say, “I called it.” We’ve been waiting for four years for Hooper to realize his potential and it’s only happened once in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Leavitt is someone the public tends to fade because he doesn’t often put a stamp on his fights and his style is awkward. However, he often finds ways to win. Styles make fights and Hooper may finally get to dance with a willing grappling partner; but, even in that instance, I don’t like his lack of strength against Leavitt.

Typically, I don’t rush to the window to bet either of these fighters but I love the odds in this one. Given the inconsistency in both fighters and that, of their combined 8 UFC wins, only one is over a fighter on the UFC roster, I handicapped this fight near a pick’em. Therefore, I’ll take a dog shot at +200 in a fight that I expect to be near even.

Best Bet: Leavitt to win (+170 at BetUS)

The post Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews, 29, has ping-ponged wins and losses in his last five fights. His three recent wins include two finishes while his losses are via decision and submission.

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Betting Odds

Morales opened around a -250 but has ballooned up to north of -300 in most books. A few -290s are still out there.

• Michael Morales: -290 (BetUS)
• Jake Matthews: +240 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As with most prospects who have a top 5 ranking as a realistic possibility in their future, each fight Morales takes is designed to test a new aspect of his game. His debut was meant to see how the young kid could handle a grown man who was willing to be the aggressor.

Morales showcased his excellent and sniper-like counter striking; and, seemingly, effortlessly knocked his opponent out with a beautiful combination. Then, in his next fight, Morales was arguably given a step down in competition level but was challenged with a tricky grappler who would test Morales’ ability to stay composed and test his takedown defense.

While he did surrender 1 takedown and some control time, Morales’ athleticism, fundamental wrestling, and lateral movement were on full display. He fought intelligently- an important attribute for such a young fighter- stayed within his game plan, and eventually found the 3rd round knockout. Then, most recently, Morales’ grit, cardio, and durability were designed to be tested.

While he didn’t secure the finish in this fight, Morales showcased his jab, ability to be both the hammer and nail, and his cardio en route to a decision win. In all 3 fights, a different set of skills were needed for victory and Morales possessed the necessary arsenal each time.

Matthews, who was once like Morales and considered the future of the division, has faulted as of late. His successful and difficult to deal with combination of wrestle boxing has proved more challenging to implement against the nearly ranked level of opponents he’s recently lost to.

At his best, Matthews is able to weaponize cardio with a well-rounded game that can exploit the weakness or gap of an opponent. However, at his worst, Matthews can be overaggressive and press in the cage rather than letting his game flow. This results in him being hittable on the feet and sloppy on the mat. His striking- a more boxing focused style with a high guard- is rooted in volume, pressure, accuracy, and timing. Matthews doesn’t carry overly impactful power but his damage through attrition approach can result in finishes.

However, if he’s off his game, Matthews’ attempt to land with volume can result in him moving linearly into counter shots over and over as he attempts to strike his way through adversity. “The Celtic Kid’s” wrestling is similar. When he picks his spots well, Matthews has well-timed shots that he tends to finish regularly.

His wrestling, at this point in his career, is most advantageous at the end of close rounds where a takedown sways the judges in his favor. But, if he gets tunnel vision and continues to try and wrestle when the opportunity isn’t available, Matthews can get stuffed and clipped or even reverse. In short, Matthews is well-rounded and difficult to game plan for because he has a complete MMA skillset. However he can get in his own way at times and force his way into bad spots.

Fight Prediction

I’ve been a believer in Morales since he joined the UFC and I’m believing in him again here. It’s possible that we get a Dalby/Bonfim type of fight if Matthews can push such an extreme pace that Morales gasses himself out. However, everything Morales’ has shown in the octagon is that his intangibles and demeanor are those of a much older and more experienced fighter.

That is to say, Morales’s fight IQ, composure, and well-rounded skillset should allow him to avoid an ill-advised fire fight. Instead, I expect Morales to fight similarly to how he did against Fugitt: careful but tactful. Look for Matthews to push a pace early but Morales to use footwork, an intelligent jab, and well-timed counters to piece Matthews up. While I expect a decision, a late finish wouldn’t surprise me either. I prefer Morales in parlays, but like him by decision as a straight play.

Best Bet: Morales by decision (+250)

The post Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both Johnson and Estevam have their eyes set on the top 15 of the division and each has the well-rounded arsenal accompanied by elite size to reach ranked status in their UFC tenure.

However, a loss here may result in Johnson’s release from the UFC, and a loss for Estevam will halt all forward momentum he has established within his professional fight career, so each fighter has a lot at stake which makes for a greatly entertaining fight.

• How to watch: Watch every fight live this weekend on ESPN+
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Betting Odds

Rafael Estevam is priced as a slight -135 favorite over the UFC veteran, Charles Johnson, coming back as a +120 underdog.

• Rafael Estevam: -135 (BetUS)
• Charles Johnson: +120 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As stated in the introduction, Charles Johnson has elite physical attributes for the flyweight division, both in stature and in strength. The combination of height with strength is quite unique for this division, thus giving him the tools to present a significant problem for his opponents. This puzzle each opponent must overcome extends beyond size alone, as he is truly a well-rounded fighter.

Being well-rounded with the physical tools needed as a flyweight may seem like something is amiss given Johnson is just 2-3 in the UFC. This eery feeling is warranted, and the reason for this less-than-stellar record is due to Johnson not fighting to his potential. Specifically, Johnson struggles to chain together his strengths in the octagon, notably his heavy hands with underutilized offensive wrestling. The latter point may seem odd given he has been wrestled to defeat against Mokaev and Durden, but Johnson’s ability to get up off the mat and do well in scrambling situations rationalizes the statement that the grappling he has at his disposal is underutilized from an offensive perspective.

In this fight, Johnson is given another chance to leverage powerful striking against a predominate wrestling opponent. If Johnson can get his offense going at a quicker rate than he has traditionally shown, then he can establish himself as the aggressor in the octagon, which will then, allow him to dictate pace, distance, and most importantly, best equip himself to stuff takedowns. If he can establish himself as the aggressor early, then he has the fight tools at his disposal to secure the victory here.

As stated, Estevam is a predominate wrestler who will likely look to implement a proven path to victory laid out by Mokaev and Durden alike – repeatable takedowns. We saw him implement this gameplan in his DWCS fight, where he not only showcased good wrestling from an entry standpoint but also, good top control against a highly dangerous submission opponent. While Johnson will likely be a fighter who looks to get up off the mat once taken there contrary to fighting for a submission off the back, thus making him harder to control, the fight data shown by Estevam reasons that even if Johnson works himself up off the mat, Estevam has the skills to get it back down and work damage in top position.

The ability to finish fights, both by TKO and submissions, is a strong suit of Estevam. While this has not been done in the UFC, he too has elite size and strength parlayed with a tenacious, fight-ending attitude that reasons he will be dangerous from the moment the bout ensues. This will be critical here in this fight because if he allows Johnson to get his offense going with powerful strikes, then he will not be in a favorable position to secure a takedown against a good scrambler. But, if Estevam can establish his own striking, then he can be in the driver’s seat similar to what Mokaev showed against Johnson.

Fight Prediction

When it comes to DWCS fighters fighting their first bout in the UFC, I often elect to fade them. I do this given the respect I have for UFC tenured status accompanied by these fighters often being priced without value given many come-off fight-finishing bouts. In this bout, however, I see no reason to doubt Estevam’s ability to secure the victory as he has shown well in the grappling department whereas Johnson has lost due to the inability to win wrestling exchanges.

Moreover, Johnson often relies on himself being the larger, more powerful fighter, and while he is indeed both, Estevam can match the physical size and he too has power of his own. Because of similar regard for each’s striking ability accompanied by the expectation of Estevam winning the grappling exchanges, I am choosing to go with him here.

Bet: Estevam to win (-135 at BetUS)

The post Charles Johnson vs Rafael Estevam prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.