Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews, 29, has ping-ponged wins and losses in his last five fights. His three recent wins include two finishes while his losses are via decision and submission.

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Betting Odds

Morales opened around a -250 but has ballooned up to north of -300 in most books. A few -290s are still out there.

• Michael Morales: -290 (BetUS)
• Jake Matthews: +240 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As with most prospects who have a top 5 ranking as a realistic possibility in their future, each fight Morales takes is designed to test a new aspect of his game. His debut was meant to see how the young kid could handle a grown man who was willing to be the aggressor.

Morales showcased his excellent and sniper-like counter striking; and, seemingly, effortlessly knocked his opponent out with a beautiful combination. Then, in his next fight, Morales was arguably given a step down in competition level but was challenged with a tricky grappler who would test Morales’ ability to stay composed and test his takedown defense.

While he did surrender 1 takedown and some control time, Morales’ athleticism, fundamental wrestling, and lateral movement were on full display. He fought intelligently- an important attribute for such a young fighter- stayed within his game plan, and eventually found the 3rd round knockout. Then, most recently, Morales’ grit, cardio, and durability were designed to be tested.

While he didn’t secure the finish in this fight, Morales showcased his jab, ability to be both the hammer and nail, and his cardio en route to a decision win. In all 3 fights, a different set of skills were needed for victory and Morales possessed the necessary arsenal each time.

Matthews, who was once like Morales and considered the future of the division, has faulted as of late. His successful and difficult to deal with combination of wrestle boxing has proved more challenging to implement against the nearly ranked level of opponents he’s recently lost to.

At his best, Matthews is able to weaponize cardio with a well-rounded game that can exploit the weakness or gap of an opponent. However, at his worst, Matthews can be overaggressive and press in the cage rather than letting his game flow. This results in him being hittable on the feet and sloppy on the mat. His striking- a more boxing focused style with a high guard- is rooted in volume, pressure, accuracy, and timing. Matthews doesn’t carry overly impactful power but his damage through attrition approach can result in finishes.

However, if he’s off his game, Matthews’ attempt to land with volume can result in him moving linearly into counter shots over and over as he attempts to strike his way through adversity. “The Celtic Kid’s” wrestling is similar. When he picks his spots well, Matthews has well-timed shots that he tends to finish regularly.

His wrestling, at this point in his career, is most advantageous at the end of close rounds where a takedown sways the judges in his favor. But, if he gets tunnel vision and continues to try and wrestle when the opportunity isn’t available, Matthews can get stuffed and clipped or even reverse. In short, Matthews is well-rounded and difficult to game plan for because he has a complete MMA skillset. However he can get in his own way at times and force his way into bad spots.

Fight Prediction

I’ve been a believer in Morales since he joined the UFC and I’m believing in him again here. It’s possible that we get a Dalby/Bonfim type of fight if Matthews can push such an extreme pace that Morales gasses himself out. However, everything Morales’ has shown in the octagon is that his intangibles and demeanor are those of a much older and more experienced fighter.

That is to say, Morales’s fight IQ, composure, and well-rounded skillset should allow him to avoid an ill-advised fire fight. Instead, I expect Morales to fight similarly to how he did against Fugitt: careful but tactful. Look for Matthews to push a pace early but Morales to use footwork, an intelligent jab, and well-timed counters to piece Matthews up. While I expect a decision, a late finish wouldn’t surprise me either. I prefer Morales in parlays, but like him by decision as a straight play.

Best Bet: Morales by decision (+250)

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Betting Odds

Matthews opened as slightly more than a 2:1 favorite and has steadily grown throughout the week.

• Matthews: -260
• Semelsberger: +200

Fight Breakdown

Matthews is an experienced and hard-nosed welterweight with high-level cardio and a complete skillset. He is well-rounded with above-average wrestling and improved striking. Since Matthews entered the UFC, he has been marked as someone with high potential and an expectation of being a fighter to crack and climb the rankings. Typically, Matthews looks to wrestle his way to decisions, but he does so after setting up single and double-leg takedowns behind intelligent striking. Matthews tends to fight strategically; he rarely throws a strike without having a plan for a follow-up shot, either strike or takedown. He stands orthodox and has fundamental boxing. Early in his career, his boxing was basic, more focused on defense rather than offense. But, recently, Matthews has shown significant strides on the feet, able to land tight combinations with little wasted movement. He is still defensively sound, and he uses technical footwork well to evade getting clean. In his last fight, Matthews showcased his improved striking speed and snap against a legitimate power kickboxer.

Additionally, “The Celtic Kid” still has strong and reliable wrestling, which he can use to get the fight to the mat, especially at the end of rounds. Previously, Matthews struggled to transition from striking to wrestling; but, with his improved hands, he can chain his striking into his wrestling. This possible path to victory, considering the previous way to beat Matthews, was to stuff takedown and make him fight a technical kickboxing match. Now, Matthews can hang and even find success on the feet while still able to secure important minutes on the mat.

Semelsberger is a willing and aggressive slugger who struggles with the technical side of striking. He has real power in his hands and is able to explode with combinations that, if they land, can end the fight. He strikes with a contradictory blitz volume approach. Statistically, Semelsberger lands with high volume; but, during a fight, he tends to sit and wait for an opportunity, then blitzes forward with a big combination. This results in his stats showing high volume; but, in reality, Semelsberger tends to fight with more bouts of inactivity than expected. In short, Semelsberger is a powerful and explosive boxer with good hands and a good chin, but he could benefit from more consistent activity and better footwork. Because Semelsberger tends to wait and then burst, he will, at times, stand still or move linearly. Technical and fundamental s

trikers have been able to capitalize when Semelsberger stands still, as a stationary target, or moves linearly in a predictable way. Just like his striking, Semelsberger’s wrestling is successful when he’s offensive, but he struggles defensively. Semelsberger was an ex-D1 football player, so, unsurprisingly, he knows how time a shot and get a guy down. His wrestling, like his striking, relies on athleticism and timing over technique. Defensively, though, “Semi The Jedi” struggles to keep the fight standing. The bottom line, Semelsberger is a dangerous and fun brawler who can win fights with explosive movements but tends to lose them against more technical and multidimensional fighters.

Staff Prediction

This is really Matthews’ fight to lose. He can win on the feet behind is jab and superior footwork, sticking and moving for 15 minutes while Semelsberger chases him around the cage. Further, Matthews has a significant edge in wrestling and should be able to get the fight to the mat whenever he wants. The only danger is if Matthews gets caught in a brawl with the more athletic and powerful Semelsberger. This fight will test Matthews’ fight IQ and restraint. I anticipate him passing with flying colors. I prefer him in parlays, but as a straight play, I like Matthews to get the fight down and get Semelsberger out.

Pick: Matthews by submission

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