Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews, 29, has ping-ponged wins and losses in his last five fights. His three recent wins include two finishes while his losses are via decision and submission.

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Betting Odds

Morales opened around a -250 but has ballooned up to north of -300 in most books. A few -290s are still out there.

• Michael Morales: -290 (BetUS)
• Jake Matthews: +240 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As with most prospects who have a top 5 ranking as a realistic possibility in their future, each fight Morales takes is designed to test a new aspect of his game. His debut was meant to see how the young kid could handle a grown man who was willing to be the aggressor.

Morales showcased his excellent and sniper-like counter striking; and, seemingly, effortlessly knocked his opponent out with a beautiful combination. Then, in his next fight, Morales was arguably given a step down in competition level but was challenged with a tricky grappler who would test Morales’ ability to stay composed and test his takedown defense.

While he did surrender 1 takedown and some control time, Morales’ athleticism, fundamental wrestling, and lateral movement were on full display. He fought intelligently- an important attribute for such a young fighter- stayed within his game plan, and eventually found the 3rd round knockout. Then, most recently, Morales’ grit, cardio, and durability were designed to be tested.

While he didn’t secure the finish in this fight, Morales showcased his jab, ability to be both the hammer and nail, and his cardio en route to a decision win. In all 3 fights, a different set of skills were needed for victory and Morales possessed the necessary arsenal each time.

Matthews, who was once like Morales and considered the future of the division, has faulted as of late. His successful and difficult to deal with combination of wrestle boxing has proved more challenging to implement against the nearly ranked level of opponents he’s recently lost to.

At his best, Matthews is able to weaponize cardio with a well-rounded game that can exploit the weakness or gap of an opponent. However, at his worst, Matthews can be overaggressive and press in the cage rather than letting his game flow. This results in him being hittable on the feet and sloppy on the mat. His striking- a more boxing focused style with a high guard- is rooted in volume, pressure, accuracy, and timing. Matthews doesn’t carry overly impactful power but his damage through attrition approach can result in finishes.

However, if he’s off his game, Matthews’ attempt to land with volume can result in him moving linearly into counter shots over and over as he attempts to strike his way through adversity. “The Celtic Kid’s” wrestling is similar. When he picks his spots well, Matthews has well-timed shots that he tends to finish regularly.

His wrestling, at this point in his career, is most advantageous at the end of close rounds where a takedown sways the judges in his favor. But, if he gets tunnel vision and continues to try and wrestle when the opportunity isn’t available, Matthews can get stuffed and clipped or even reverse. In short, Matthews is well-rounded and difficult to game plan for because he has a complete MMA skillset. However he can get in his own way at times and force his way into bad spots.

Fight Prediction

I’ve been a believer in Morales since he joined the UFC and I’m believing in him again here. It’s possible that we get a Dalby/Bonfim type of fight if Matthews can push such an extreme pace that Morales gasses himself out. However, everything Morales’ has shown in the octagon is that his intangibles and demeanor are those of a much older and more experienced fighter.

That is to say, Morales’s fight IQ, composure, and well-rounded skillset should allow him to avoid an ill-advised fire fight. Instead, I expect Morales to fight similarly to how he did against Fugitt: careful but tactful. Look for Matthews to push a pace early but Morales to use footwork, an intelligent jab, and well-timed counters to piece Matthews up. While I expect a decision, a late finish wouldn’t surprise me either. I prefer Morales in parlays, but like him by decision as a straight play.

Best Bet: Morales by decision (+250)

The post Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

UFC veteran, Max “Pain” Griffin, 37, is over a decade older than his opponent. As a professional, Griffin is 19-9 but is 7-7 in the UFC. Tough as nails, Griffin has only been finished once in the UFC while he’s racked up three finish wins of his own.

Morales opened with respect from the books but has still grown as the favorite throughout the week.

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Betting Odds

Morales is the betting favorite at odds of -225 before UFC on ESPN 48 this weekend.

• Michael Morales: -225 (BetUS)
• Max Griffin: +190 (BetUS)

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Fight Breakdown

Morales is a well-schooled, highly technical, intelligent, patient, and dangerous fighter with a complete skillset in the cage. He tends to fight patiently, setting up his power shots with a stinging jab, solid feints, and athletic footwork. This style shows a maturity beyond his age.

His jab, a quick and stiff shot, might be his best attack and he uses it often to dictate pace and space. As he breaks down his opponent with high-level striking and footwork, Morales looks to create openings for well-timed and explosive combinations that have enough heat to end the fight quickly.

Beyond his offensive striking, Morales is also a National Champion wrestler. While his offensive wrestling is effective, he primarily finds success using his stout defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing where he often has the edge on the feet. The two question marks that surround Morales’ game are his defensive awareness and inconsistency in checking leg kicks.

While Morales is patient and technical, he is a bit hittable. This “hittability” doesn’t appear to be from a lack of defensive ability, but rather a lack of awareness when he’s on the attack. While flowing, he sometimes ignores his own defense. This is a small concern and one that has looked better and better in each of his fights.

More concerningly, though, is Morales’ lack of consistency in checking leg kicks. Because he keeps a boxing stance with more weight on his front leg and so much of his game is dependent on his footwork, opponents can find success chopping the tree. Morales, thus far, has just accepted leg kicks and kept going, rather than checking them. He’ll need to start checking those kicks because relying on toughness and youth isn’t sustainable.

Griffin, at this point, is a gatekeeper or test for prospects. He does a few things really well, tends to struggle against the same few attacks, and requires a prospect to have a complete game to beat him. Much like Neil Magny, the other gatekeeper- to a much higher degree- in the division, Griffin has excellent cardio, strong clinch wrestling, reliable volume, and a chin that can withstand real damage. Griffin also has the X-Factor of real power which he tends to ramp up as the fight goes on.

His typical style is to use pressure, through a heavy jab and leg kick, early to crash distance, get his opponent against the cage, and land elbows and knees while weaponizing cardio. Prospects who can’t handle pressure, clinch wrestling, or have reliable cardio rarely pass his test. However, fighters with those three abilities can succeed against “Pain” with well-timed counter shots, straight punches, and footwork.

Griffin tends to move linearly with the same jab, leg kick, and hook combination. High-level strikers can exploit the predictability, land their own straight counter shots, and exit the pocket, causing Griffin to chase for 15 minutes. Still, given his chin and cardio, opponents often need to do this for the full fight while still being weary of his power.

Prediction and Betting Guide

The popular handicap for Griffin backers in this fight is his power and leg kicks. The strategically ignored aspect of that handicap is Morales’ progression as a fighter and his overall fight IQ.

At only 23 years old, Morales will continue to improve fight in and fight out. That, plus his impressive fight IQ and patience in the cage suggests he knows and will be preparing for both Griffin’s power and leg kicks. While Morales has been a bit hittable in the past and hasn’t consistently checked leg kicks, his youth, and intelligence suggest that he will improve in both areas during camp.

Meanwhile, at 37, Griffin making significant improvements is less likely. At 7-7 in the UFC, there is a clear blueprint to beating Griffin: volume, defensive wrestling, and straight punches. Morales has all 3 in spades. He has excellent volume and cardio, National Championship caliber wrestling, and his best strikes come right down the barrel.

Prospects all have to pass certain tests to continue their track and this test for Morales is simple: have you grown? I’ll happily bet on Morales’ growth and ability to expose Griffin’s weaknesses rather than the other way around. I like Morales by decision as a straight play and love him in a parlay with Bonfim this weekend.

Best Bets: Morales (-225) and Bonfim (-295) parlay (-107) and Morales by Decision (+165)

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Betting Odds

Morales is a narrow betting favorite in his debut over Giles.

• Giles: +105
• Morales: -125

Breakdown

Giles and Morales share some similarities in the octagon. Both are athletic, suddenly explosive, and sharp strikers. Giles has heavy and active hands; he often follows a stinging jab with a sharp hook. His hook is deceptive as well as powerful because he fights with his hands low, relying on movement for defense, and the hook comes from his opponent’s blind spot. Giles has real heat behind his strikes but his technique, urgency, and willingness to throw a variety of combinations can improve. He tends to stick with the same plan- weave into his range, test a few jabs, and set up a big hook. When grappling offensively, Giles engages well and is powerful in the clinch. Defensively, he is less technical and more reliant on his strength. Giles has been and can be taken down and controlled in the clinch but is adept at bursting upward to break the grip. Once on the feet, he repeats his tried and true jab-hook approach.

Morales is more varied and fundamental than Giles. Despite only being 22, Morales is a patient fighter who looks to set up his heavy strikes behind a stiff jab, regular feints, and a solid kicking game. His goal is to weaponize his length and precise striking to keep opponents at his range where he is both safer and more dangerous. Morales is also a patient fighter, willing to hunt for openings rather than rush in and engage. His patience could cause issues at this level because the typical way to beat a long and tactical fighter is to rush in and make the ranger man fight in close. If Morales is too patient and doesn’t lead the dance, he’ll be inviting his opponent to crash and force him into a brawl. But, thus far, I’ve seen Morales dictate range, pace, and violence. I’m excited for his potential in the UFC.

Prediction

In most cases, I favor the longer, faster, and the more technical striker who I trust has the edge in skill. However, being his debut, I worry Morales will fall into some veteran traps from Giles. I think Morales will have moments where he looks good in this fight; but, over the course of 15 minutes, I see Giles as keeping up with Morales’ sudden explosions, crashing the distance, and exploiting Morales’ lower volume. If Giles pushes a higher pace and leans on his experience, I see him getting the win.

Prediction: Trevin Giles to win by decision

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