In the main event, two of UFC’s middleweight contenders, No. 10 ranked Brendan Allen (22-5) and No. 13 Paul Craig (17-6), are set to collide in a battle that promises to deliver a mix of strategy, skill, and raw power.

Allen, stepping into his first UFC main event, is riding a wave of momentum with five consecutive wins under his belt. Meanwhile, Craig, making his second appearance in the middleweight category, looks to build on the success of his divisional debut victory over André Muniz.

Read on as we dive deep into the latest betting odds, provide a detailed breakdown of the fight, and offer a prediction along with the best bet and pick for this thrilling matchup.

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Allen vs Craig betting odds

Brendan Allen’s a hefty betting favorite but this wasn’t always the case leading up to the UFC Fight Night 232 main event. Initial odds had Allen at closer to -275 with Craig around +200 but they’ve since changed dramatically as it seems money continues to come in on Allen.

• Brendan Allen: -450 (MyBookie)
• Paul Craig: +340 (BetUS)

Allen vs Craig breakdown

I’ve been all-in on Brendan “All In” Allen since his submission win over Kevin Holland, another fighter I’ve backed for years, in his UFC debut. I’ve been Allen in each of his 12 UFC fights and have cashed a lot of tickets thanks to his 10-2 UFC record.

What drew me to Allen is his knowledge of what he does well, his determination to impose his game plan, but also his willingness to make adjustments if an easier path to victory presents itself. All too often, fighters seem to predetermine how they plan to win a fight and continue to force that game plan in the cage even if it’s not working. Allen is not the best striker, grappler, or submission artist in the division. But, he can succeed in all facets of MMA and will often let the fight come to him, using his variety of skills to adjust mid-fight, even mid-round, depending on his opponent.

Allen is an offensively sound striker who uses an intelligent jab and knowledge of angles to cut opponents off and trap them against the cage. From there, Allen’s speciality is finding a safe way into the clinch where his natural strength and fundamental grappling allow him to pin opponents against the cage and land dirty boxing shots in tight. His goal is to drag opponents down from the clinch and either get on top to land heavy elbows or force his opponent to turn over and expose their back. If he gets an opening to get the back, Allen impressively takes the opening, gets his hooks in, and will quickly find the neck. 4 of his last 5 wins have come via rear naked choke following the above game plan. Because Allen’s striking defense is a bit lackluster and his movement is sometimes a touch slow, he tends to struggle against fighters with stout takedown defense and/or pressure-heavy striking. If an opponent can be the one who pushes “All-in” back and force Allen to be the nail in the fight, he struggles to get his game going.

Paul “Bearjew” Craig, on paper, should not be as good as he is. His striking offense is plodding and sloppy. His striking defense is a liability. His wrestling is non-existent. And most of his submission wins have come when he’s on his back and Craig comes from behind for the win. But, eventually, we just have to recognize that this guy, regardless of how he wins, continues to win. Craig is 9-6 in the UFC but is 5-2 since 2020 which includes wins over the ex-champion, Hill, and 2 other ranked or previously ranked fighters. Its ugly, its sloppy, and it often comes as a surprise; but, since 2020, Craig often finds ways to win. His whole game plan centers around baiting his opponent to enter his guard where he then tries to survive long enough for his opponent to make a mistake. His most common submission win is the triangle, which often comes as an opponent postures up in his guard to try and land fight ending ground and pound. Just as an opponent postures up to seemingly end the fight, that’s when Craig secures in his own finish. This survive and thrive style shouldn’t be as successful as it is but Craig has mastered it over the years. He knows his strengths and has found a way to make his weaknesses work for him.

Allen vs Craig prediction

While handicapping a fight comes down to how the skills and styles of the fighters match up, it is also important to consider the lines and the value within those lines. This line is out of hand.

In Allen’s last 3 fights- against lower ranked or unranked opponents- he was a -230, +190, and +100 respectively. Now, against the highest ranked and, arguably, toughest competitor of his career, Allen’s line has ballooned up to a -430. Now, the skill and style matchup in this fight does favor Allen. He is the pointedly better striker, is intelligent and dangerous on the mat, and has shown fight after fight that he continues to grow.

Meanwhile, Craig is an awkward and hittable striker, an excellent submission artist but poor wrestler, and often needs to capitalize on a mistake to win. All skill and style signs point to Allen staying smart and finding Craig’s chin. However, -430 is a steep price to pay.

This comes down to your philosophy as a better. Are you someone who decides who you think will win and then hunts for value through money lines, props, and parlay? Or are you someone who prefers to find value in incorrect or mispriced odds? I’m the former, I prefer to trust my scouting of fighters first and find value second. But, I do not blame anyone whose style is the latter and wants to take the undeniable value in Craig, likely Craig by submission. I, however, will back Allen because I think he’s simply the better fighter with more ways to win.

Next comes finding value. 5 of 6 of Craig’s losses have come via finish and 4 by knockout. But, Allen hasn’t secured a knockout since 2020 and that is his only one in the UFC. Therefore, I handicap Allen getting the finish and the type of finish- knockout or submission- to be near even in terms of probability.

So, my bet will be Allen by submission (+225) rather than Allen by knockout (+125) because the odds are better and I think either outcome is about as likely as the other.

Best Bet: Allen to win by submission (+225)

The post Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt, 28, will, in turn, make his 7th walk into the UFC octagon. He holds a 4-2 record also with three finish wins.

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Betting Odds

Hooper is a sizeable favorite over Leavitt.

• Chase Hooper: -220 (MyBookie)
• Jordan Leavitt: +170 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

There are certain fighters with the reputation of an elite skill because of outside the UFC success; but, when they get into the UFC, that skill isn’t as elite as advertised or the fighters don’t have the other skills necessary to implement it. Chase Hooper has the reputation of high-level grappling and a dangerous submission game, yet, he only has one submission win and all four of his wins have come against fighters no longer on the UFC roster.

The primary indicator for Hooper’s unrealized potential is his wrestling. He only averages 1.4 takedowns a fight at a middling 22% clip. Because he is often incapable of getting the fight to the mat, Hooper is unable to showcase his submission skills. And, in the rare occasions where he has been in a position to implement his reputationally excellent submission offense, Hooper has struggled to hold position long enough to secure the submission.

Instead, what typically happens in Hooper fights is a sloppy, dirty, and gritty clinch fight against the cage where Hooper’s knowledge of grappling position gives him an edge but his undeveloped striking and strength create issues. It is important to emphasize that Hooper is only 24 and should continue to improve significantly fight after fight. Additionally, he should continue to grow into his body and increase his strength. But, so far in his career, Hooper’s fights go one of two ways.

If he is fighting a non-UFC caliber opponent unable to deal with Hooper’s persistent clinch game, Hooper can use cardio, volume, and some grappling to win. However, if an opponent has been UFC-caliber capable of keeping Hooper off the cage, even with a basic jab or leg kick, then Hooper’s lack of striking keeps him from find much if any success.

Most concerningly, though, is Hooper’s lack of defense and his dependency on his chin to absorb shots. His most recent loss was finally via knockout. After years of taking damage without going down, Hooper’s chin finally gave out. Hooper is young, growing, and supposedly has a high level grappling game, but the jury is still out on whether “The Dream” has the full MMA skillset to consistently win at the UFC level.

A bit of a cult-hero because of his…unique…personality and celebration, Leavitt has found his way to put his name on the radar of the UFC brass despite also only 1 win over a fighter currently on the UFC roster. Leavitt is primarily a wrestler who uses awkwardly timed striking and sound defense to close distance where he can engage in the clinch against the cage. His striking offense is basic and slow but varied.

He’s a southpaw striker who is capable of throwing and often landing boxing combinations and a solid back kick. However, his striking output is low; and, while his feints help him close distance, his ability to execute in the pocket is minimal. Instead, Leavitt will typically feint forward, look to trap his opponent, and then clinch against the cage. He too wants to get the fight to the mat but has minimal wrestling to do so.

Leavitt averages 2.3 takedown attempts per fight at at 26% success rate. Leavitt’s main goal is to fight with enough of an off-beat style that he can put his opponent into an unfamiliar position, force them to make a mistake, and then capitalize on said mistake. He has fairly high fight IQ, knowing what he does well, but doesn’t always have the requisite skills to execute once he gets the position he wants. Instead, Leavitt’s success most commonly comes through forcing mistakes while he struggles if opponents are cautious enough to avoid them.

Fight Prediction

Both of these fighters are fun because of their out-of-the-cage personalities and unknown performances in the cage. People like betting on the potential of a fighter because, if it clicks, it’s impressive and satisfying to be able to say, “I called it.” We’ve been waiting for four years for Hooper to realize his potential and it’s only happened once in the UFC.

Meanwhile, Leavitt is someone the public tends to fade because he doesn’t often put a stamp on his fights and his style is awkward. However, he often finds ways to win. Styles make fights and Hooper may finally get to dance with a willing grappling partner; but, even in that instance, I don’t like his lack of strength against Leavitt.

Typically, I don’t rush to the window to bet either of these fighters but I love the odds in this one. Given the inconsistency in both fighters and that, of their combined 8 UFC wins, only one is over a fighter on the UFC roster, I handicapped this fight near a pick’em. Therefore, I’ll take a dog shot at +200 in a fight that I expect to be near even.

Best Bet: Leavitt to win (+170 at BetUS)

The post Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews, 29, has ping-ponged wins and losses in his last five fights. His three recent wins include two finishes while his losses are via decision and submission.

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Betting Odds

Morales opened around a -250 but has ballooned up to north of -300 in most books. A few -290s are still out there.

• Michael Morales: -290 (BetUS)
• Jake Matthews: +240 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As with most prospects who have a top 5 ranking as a realistic possibility in their future, each fight Morales takes is designed to test a new aspect of his game. His debut was meant to see how the young kid could handle a grown man who was willing to be the aggressor.

Morales showcased his excellent and sniper-like counter striking; and, seemingly, effortlessly knocked his opponent out with a beautiful combination. Then, in his next fight, Morales was arguably given a step down in competition level but was challenged with a tricky grappler who would test Morales’ ability to stay composed and test his takedown defense.

While he did surrender 1 takedown and some control time, Morales’ athleticism, fundamental wrestling, and lateral movement were on full display. He fought intelligently- an important attribute for such a young fighter- stayed within his game plan, and eventually found the 3rd round knockout. Then, most recently, Morales’ grit, cardio, and durability were designed to be tested.

While he didn’t secure the finish in this fight, Morales showcased his jab, ability to be both the hammer and nail, and his cardio en route to a decision win. In all 3 fights, a different set of skills were needed for victory and Morales possessed the necessary arsenal each time.

Matthews, who was once like Morales and considered the future of the division, has faulted as of late. His successful and difficult to deal with combination of wrestle boxing has proved more challenging to implement against the nearly ranked level of opponents he’s recently lost to.

At his best, Matthews is able to weaponize cardio with a well-rounded game that can exploit the weakness or gap of an opponent. However, at his worst, Matthews can be overaggressive and press in the cage rather than letting his game flow. This results in him being hittable on the feet and sloppy on the mat. His striking- a more boxing focused style with a high guard- is rooted in volume, pressure, accuracy, and timing. Matthews doesn’t carry overly impactful power but his damage through attrition approach can result in finishes.

However, if he’s off his game, Matthews’ attempt to land with volume can result in him moving linearly into counter shots over and over as he attempts to strike his way through adversity. “The Celtic Kid’s” wrestling is similar. When he picks his spots well, Matthews has well-timed shots that he tends to finish regularly.

His wrestling, at this point in his career, is most advantageous at the end of close rounds where a takedown sways the judges in his favor. But, if he gets tunnel vision and continues to try and wrestle when the opportunity isn’t available, Matthews can get stuffed and clipped or even reverse. In short, Matthews is well-rounded and difficult to game plan for because he has a complete MMA skillset. However he can get in his own way at times and force his way into bad spots.

Fight Prediction

I’ve been a believer in Morales since he joined the UFC and I’m believing in him again here. It’s possible that we get a Dalby/Bonfim type of fight if Matthews can push such an extreme pace that Morales gasses himself out. However, everything Morales’ has shown in the octagon is that his intangibles and demeanor are those of a much older and more experienced fighter.

That is to say, Morales’s fight IQ, composure, and well-rounded skillset should allow him to avoid an ill-advised fire fight. Instead, I expect Morales to fight similarly to how he did against Fugitt: careful but tactful. Look for Matthews to push a pace early but Morales to use footwork, an intelligent jab, and well-timed counters to piece Matthews up. While I expect a decision, a late finish wouldn’t surprise me either. I prefer Morales in parlays, but like him by decision as a straight play.

Best Bet: Morales by decision (+250)

The post Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Both Johnson and Estevam have their eyes set on the top 15 of the division and each has the well-rounded arsenal accompanied by elite size to reach ranked status in their UFC tenure.

However, a loss here may result in Johnson’s release from the UFC, and a loss for Estevam will halt all forward momentum he has established within his professional fight career, so each fighter has a lot at stake which makes for a greatly entertaining fight.

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Betting Odds

Rafael Estevam is priced as a slight -135 favorite over the UFC veteran, Charles Johnson, coming back as a +120 underdog.

• Rafael Estevam: -135 (BetUS)
• Charles Johnson: +120 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As stated in the introduction, Charles Johnson has elite physical attributes for the flyweight division, both in stature and in strength. The combination of height with strength is quite unique for this division, thus giving him the tools to present a significant problem for his opponents. This puzzle each opponent must overcome extends beyond size alone, as he is truly a well-rounded fighter.

Being well-rounded with the physical tools needed as a flyweight may seem like something is amiss given Johnson is just 2-3 in the UFC. This eery feeling is warranted, and the reason for this less-than-stellar record is due to Johnson not fighting to his potential. Specifically, Johnson struggles to chain together his strengths in the octagon, notably his heavy hands with underutilized offensive wrestling. The latter point may seem odd given he has been wrestled to defeat against Mokaev and Durden, but Johnson’s ability to get up off the mat and do well in scrambling situations rationalizes the statement that the grappling he has at his disposal is underutilized from an offensive perspective.

In this fight, Johnson is given another chance to leverage powerful striking against a predominate wrestling opponent. If Johnson can get his offense going at a quicker rate than he has traditionally shown, then he can establish himself as the aggressor in the octagon, which will then, allow him to dictate pace, distance, and most importantly, best equip himself to stuff takedowns. If he can establish himself as the aggressor early, then he has the fight tools at his disposal to secure the victory here.

As stated, Estevam is a predominate wrestler who will likely look to implement a proven path to victory laid out by Mokaev and Durden alike – repeatable takedowns. We saw him implement this gameplan in his DWCS fight, where he not only showcased good wrestling from an entry standpoint but also, good top control against a highly dangerous submission opponent. While Johnson will likely be a fighter who looks to get up off the mat once taken there contrary to fighting for a submission off the back, thus making him harder to control, the fight data shown by Estevam reasons that even if Johnson works himself up off the mat, Estevam has the skills to get it back down and work damage in top position.

The ability to finish fights, both by TKO and submissions, is a strong suit of Estevam. While this has not been done in the UFC, he too has elite size and strength parlayed with a tenacious, fight-ending attitude that reasons he will be dangerous from the moment the bout ensues. This will be critical here in this fight because if he allows Johnson to get his offense going with powerful strikes, then he will not be in a favorable position to secure a takedown against a good scrambler. But, if Estevam can establish his own striking, then he can be in the driver’s seat similar to what Mokaev showed against Johnson.

Fight Prediction

When it comes to DWCS fighters fighting their first bout in the UFC, I often elect to fade them. I do this given the respect I have for UFC tenured status accompanied by these fighters often being priced without value given many come-off fight-finishing bouts. In this bout, however, I see no reason to doubt Estevam’s ability to secure the victory as he has shown well in the grappling department whereas Johnson has lost due to the inability to win wrestling exchanges.

Moreover, Johnson often relies on himself being the larger, more powerful fighter, and while he is indeed both, Estevam can match the physical size and he too has power of his own. Because of similar regard for each’s striking ability accompanied by the expectation of Estevam winning the grappling exchanges, I am choosing to go with him here.

Bet: Estevam to win (-135 at BetUS)

The post Charles Johnson vs Rafael Estevam prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 232 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The main event battle is a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship showdown between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira. Prochazka returns from injury and will attempt to reclaim the title. Pereira gets the opportunity to become a two-division champion in the UFC if he’s successful on the night.

Read on as we break down Prochazka vs. Pereira before sharing our predictions, picks, and best bets for this main event matchup.

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Prochazka vs Pereira betting odds

After Prochazka was available at odds of +120 for weeks, the betting lines have now tightened as it seems bets continue to come in on the former champion.

• Jiri Prochazka: -102 (BetUS)
• Alex Pereira: -128 (BetUS)

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Prochazka vs Pereira staff predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jiri Prochazka is synonymous with one word. “Unpredictable”. The man is an anomaly among professional athletes of all disciplines and treats himself more as a samurai-esk martial artist than a professional athlete in presentation and training method.

This has allowed him to develop a fight style built on unorthodox movement, rhythms and angles, he will make long strides, stepping through from a bladed stance, which typically would seem to take too long and expose the legs, however because it’s something that rarely people train to deal with he tends to get away with it and it allows him to make contact from spaces that fighters aren’t used to.

Being as unpredictable as possible is his asset in this fight, as Alex Periera with his wealth of experience, has honed in on textbook practices against the highest level of kickboxers and what you would expect of a high-level kickboxer.

However, the creativity on the side of Prochazka does also require him to have space to be creative. Alex Periera should look to shut that space down so it’s important that Prochazka can do something to cause hesitation. Although he is not someone who will look to maintain and attack a wrestling-based gameplan, feinting the takedown and trying to execute them early could potential at least slow Periera’s forward movement. The idea that overcommitting could lead him to a Prochazka level change is important.

As well, although we may not see too many takedowns from Prochazka, he should also have the scrambling and grappling advantage in general. It would be wise for him to use any wild striking exchanges to incite some kind of scramble that ends up on the mat. Although Periera’s grappling is improving he still demonstrates holes to be exploited, potentially giving up his back or being caught in smash positions where he is unable to work through his own transitions. Prochazka needs to mix everything to expose potential submission opportunities for the win.

On the side of Periera, shutting down space and putting Prochazka on the fence is a must. Periera does an excellent job of moving between his left hook and right calf kick. He does the latter in an unusual manner where he throws his hips back in order to land the kick at a shorter range while still maintaining tha heavy power. It also keeps him in range to follow up with the left hook on an unbalanced opponent.

Attacking Prochazka’s legs and body early on would disable his movement to some degree, and a fighter like Prochazka that tends to rely on intuitive movement needs his body to respond to that. The more Periera can chip away, the less effective that becomes, the less likely Prochazka can flow through with his creativity and the less likely he can produce the power within scrambles to hold Periera down.

Ultimately, Prochazka is unique enough to throw someone like Periera off of his game, but I think it’s Periera’s fight to win or lose. If the Brazilian can cause early damage to the body and legs and establish himself as the forward moving presence I think the tide vastly shifts in his favor for the rest of the fight.

The main thing after that is not leaving himself open if he does find Prochazka hurt. Prochazka is as dangerous as anyone when he is desperate and seems to be out and Periera has gotten overzealous before. The more disciplined he comes into this fight the better the outcome for him I believe.

Pick: Alex Periera to win (-128 at BetUS)

Michael Pounders

Jiri “BJD” Prochazka, much like his opponent, was thrust into the rankings early in his career and it didn’t take long- only 2 UFC fights- for him to win the 205 belt. Jiri has a fun and weird style that is uniquely his own and uniquely effective. On paper, Prochazka is wild, hittable, and an unrefined striker. But, fights aren’t won or lost on paper. In the cage, those attributes have presented more as explosive, durable, and powerful. When he’s on, which he has been in all 3 of his UFC fights and for most of his career, Prochaska’s skills are that of the latter and they are impressive.

He is willing to win a fight in anyway necessary and has the ability to do so more often than not. If an opponent wants a more methodical kickboxing match, Prochazka will still bring the aggression and pressure but is also capable of sitting back and picking his shots at a high rate of success.

Then, if an opponent wants to get in tight and make the match more like a fight, Prochazka is all too happy to oblige and will happily engage in a dirty boxing fight with elbows, knees, and, often, plenty of blood. No matter the style of fight, Jiri consistently brings aggression and pressure into the cage along with huge power and a durability that, while tested in all 3 of his fights, has yet to falter.

Alex “Poatan” Pereira may just be on the list of the 5 guys you want to bring with you in the back alley if things go wrong at the bar. He is enormous -even for 205- is an elite kickboxer, and has one punch, death touch type of power. Said simply, he is a baaaddd man who can and often does end fights in an instant. Since joining the UFC, Pereira has only lost to Adesanya, after knocking him out the fight before, and has only gone the distance twice.

Typically, his fights end the same way, with a check left hook from hell that drops and finishes his opponent in one shot. Pereira’s background is as an extremely high level kickboxer and his flexibility, speed, timing, precision, and effortless attacks have all translated well to the MMA world. Characteristically, Pereira fights methodically, using feints and traps to bait an opponent into being overaggressive and leaving an opening.

He accomplishes this by standing tall but on the balls of his feet so he can explode the moment and opening is created. Then, he’ll feint with knees, kicks, and hands to force his opponent to react or counter. His goal is for his opponent to reactively counter a feint which leaves an opening to the body or head which Pereira can punish. If an opponent is unwilling to play “Poatan’s” game, then we get to see cracking calf kicks and a heavy jab which Pereira uses to add some substance to his feints. Regardless of how he creates the opening, because of his experience, athleticism, and technique, Pereira rarely misses an opportunity to end the fight.

To me, this fight is about as close as a fight can get with a unique mix of unknown factors that only add to the intrigue and difficultly making a prediction. If Jiri and AP fought 10 times, I think they would go 5-5 with an entertaining mix of finishes and FOTNs. Because both men are so evenly matched on paper, this fight likely comes down to which man shows up as the better version of himself on Saturday night. If either fighter is even a little bit off, the other has the skillset and propensity for violence to end the fight emphatically.

In a fight like this, I typically side with the underdog, but the odds are near pick’em. So, let’s go another level deeper and look at the out-of-the-cage factors. Prochazka is returning for the first time following a nasty shoulder injury and no one, not even he himself, can confidently predict how the injury or Jiri’s mentality will hold up in real action. Aspinall returned to the cage following an ACL injury and got a knockout without ever being touched. Meanwhile, Dillashaw reinjured his shoulder early in his return fight and promptly lost. Injuries, rehab, and health are all unpredictable which is a tally against Prochazka.

Pereira, meanwhile, gassed out after an average-paced three-round fight in his 205 debut. If he doesn’t end this fight quickly or fix his cardio, Jiri should be able to pull away in rounds 3, 4, and 5. Both fighters have enormously high levels of skill and an ability to end the fight quickly. Both also have question marks ahead of the bout. For me, though, a cardio problem is more fixable than a shoulder injury is reliable.

I think there is a higher percentage chance that Prochazka isn’t 100% compared to Pereira gassing out again. It’s a razor-thin edge but in a fight as close as this one is, a razor-thin edge may be as good as it gets. I’ll tentatively back Pereira to touch gold for the second time in his UFC career.

Best Bet: Pereira to win (-128 at BetUS)

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The post Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira staff predictions & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

The former Brazilian sensation has hit a rough patch since her attempt at a flyweight debut against Erin Blanchfield at the beginning of the year, where she got mauled and submitted in the second round, subsequently losing her following two fights via finish.

Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern, has bounced back from a tough loss against mutual opponent, Yan Xiaonan, and is looking to once again put together a streak to start a title run.

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Andrade vs Dern Betting Odds

Likely because of the skid Andrade’s been on, Dern comes into this bout as a notable favorite.

• Mackenzie Dern: -205 (BetUS)
• Jessica Andrade: +170 (BetUS)

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Andrade vs Dern Fight Breakdown

A lot of people are quick to chalk this fight up as a short, powerful striker against a strong, technical grappler; when really, it’s just a bout between two distinct styles of Brazilian MMA. Jessica Andrade is one of the few fighters in the sport to carry the old style of chute boxing, using her powerful hands to back up her opponent to eventually shoot an explosive takedown and either grind her opponents throughout the rest of the bout or finish them with vicious ground-and-pound or a ruthless submission. Dern is entirely different, and much more reminiscent of the newer style of Brazilian MMA; a strong, comfortable striking stance with the confidence to do damage off the back, execute a sweep, or hunt a submission if she gets taken down.

This makes it a much more interesting bout than a lot of people expect it to be, with the outcome largely being determined by the defensive ability of both women. If Dern wants to win, she needs to stay out of the pocket and away from Andrade’s devastating power. She should do relatively well if she fights well off her jab and intelligently times her grappling exchanges when on the feet. I feel like if Andrade manages a takedown, the grappling pedigree and unpredictability of Dern could overwhelm her, even if she’s on top, and could quickly get an entire round stolen from her if she’s not on point. Because of this, Andrade needs to be the aggressor in the fight. She needs to find her way into the pocket and lay on heavy strikes when she can. I would be hesitant to take her down until the third round, where the likelihood of a submission is much safer.

Andrade vs Dern Prediction and Betting Guide

Overall, I’m gonna go with Dern here, just because I think she has more ways to win. Her striking has improved significantly throughout her career, especially since her fight with Marina Rodriguez where a lot of the holes in her game on the feet were exposed.

Andrade is great, but her recent bouts against strong grapplers who were of the same caliber as Dern, like Blanchfield and Suarez, show that she folds when she gets put on her back, and can quickly gas out in such a situation. I’m going Dern via decision, just because I think the fights going to be on the feet for longer than most think, but really wouldn’t be surprised by a submission somewhere in the fight.

Pick: Mackenzie Dern via Decision (+350) or Mackenzie Dern via Submission (+120)

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The post Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Aspinall is 6-1 with six finishes, all but one of which came in the first round. Meanwhile, Pavlovich is also 6-1 with all six wins coming in the first round. Both men are exceptionally talented and dangerous; this should be a great one!

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich betting odds

Aspinall briefly opened as the underdog but was quickly flipped to the favorite.

• Tom Aspinall: -120 (BetUS)
• Sergei Pavlovich: -110 (BetUS)

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Aspinall vs Pavlovich breakdown

Aspinall might just be the next British UFC champion. Much like Bisping, Aspinall will have to overcome the obstacles a short-notice opportunity presents. But, listening to his interviews and seeing what he’s done so far in the UFC, even after a gruesome leg injury, there is no reason to doubt the #4 heavyweight on the roster. He should be prepared to showcase the best version of himself on Saturday night.

That version of Aspinall is a technically sound, athletically gifted, and dangerously powerful boxer who uses a mix of footwork, precise combinations, and raw power to end fights and end them quickly. Also, being one of the “new breeds” of MMA heavyweights, Aspinall isn’t just a power puncher. He has a full arsenal of weapons and skills that he can turn to at any point in the fight. He is quick, athletic, light footed, a gifted wrestler, and a slick submission practitioner. No matter where the fight goes, Aspinall has the experience, technical fundamentals, and natural gifts to dominate.

Some have coined him “Russian Francis” because, much like Ngannou, the power that Pavlovich has in the octagon is unlike the power anyone else has. It’s as simple as that. The damage this man can do when wearing 4oz gloves is truly special and unmatched. He lost his UFC debut but rebounded with 6 straight 1st round finishes and hasn’t really been in any significant danger since his loss.

Pavlovich has enormous arms, both in terms of length and size, which he uses to keep opponents at bay while he looks to unload the perfect shot and end the fight quickly. While he can have lower volume at times, rarely using feints or jabs to set up his strikes, when he does go, Pavlovich will throw in combinations, all of the strikes coming toward his opponent with devastating power. If even one lands, it’s lights out.

Aspinall vs Pavlovich prediction

I am as much a fan of the UFC as I am a handicapper; so, full disclosure, Aspinall is my favorite fighter on the roster, I’ve believed since his first fight that he will be a champion, and I will be rooting for him relentlessly Saturday night. With that qualifier out of the way, let’s dig into the matchup.

Typically, in a short notice pick’em fight with heavier opponents, I tend to side on the more powerful striker because he has less he needs to prepare for and the short notice nature limits the preparation of the technician. That normally has me siding with Pavlovich who has supernovas in his gloves and doesn’t have as diverse of a game that he needs to strategize around for this fight. Moreover, Pavlovich was training to be the backup for the original Jones v Stipe fight. This implies that he has been in a training camp for at least 6 weeks and should be in prime shape.

Conversely, Aspinall was not prepping for this fight; and, even if he was training to stay in shape, was not in a full training camp until only 2.5 weeks before the fight. Again, edge to Pavlovich. But, when it comes to the stylistic matchup between these two fighters, I side with Aspinall. He is the faster and far more technical striker. He is more dynamic on the feet and in MMA, able to mix in wrestling and grappling. He has a cracking leg kick while Pavlovich’s lead leg is vulnerable and exposed. And, most importantly, because Pavlovich loads up for his power shots, Aspinall should have ample opportunities to land his impressive, quick, and powerful counter shots on the open chin of Pavlovich.

While Aspinall has been hittable early in fights but I expect his fight IQ and preparation, even limited, to keep him safe for the first few minutes as Pavlovich looks for another quick finish. Then, near the end of round 1, after Aspinall showcases why footwork and technique can beat raw power, I’m anticipating Aspinall to find the off switch, countering and finishing Pavlovich in electrifying fashion.

And, if things really do get too dicey for the Englishman, he can always turn to his wrestling to make this a mixed martial arts fight compared to the stand up striking exchange that we’re all excited to see. In any case, I like Aspinall to take the belt to England.

Best Bet: Aspinall to win (-120 at BetUS)

The post Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

Dennis “The Great” Buzukja, 26, took two trips to the hardest job interview in the world but did not earn a contract with either effort. He stepped on short notice in August to finally get a shot in the big dance and dropped a decision.

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Emmers vs Buzukja odds

Emmers opened north of a -300 favorite but was quickly bet down to his current number.

• Jamall Emmers: -280 (BetUS)
• Dennis Buzukja: +225 (BetUS)

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Emmers vs Buzukja breakdown

Emmers has struggled to find his identity in the UFC. He is a long and rangy striker with some offensive grappling chops; but, as shown through two split decision losses, struggles to pull away with any clarity in his fights. He pushes a respectable pace, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.7. However, even his pace is inconsistent.

In some fights, Emmers will push forward behind a long jab and nice calf kick as he uses his height and reach advantage to force an opponent to rush into the pocket where Emmers’ hand speed can land a snappy counter on the exposed and frustrated opponent. Then, in other fights, Emmers will stand flat-footed and get backed into the cage, looking again for those counter combinations but gets pieced up in the meantime.

His wrestling is much of the same. In several of his fights, Emmers has been able to land takedowns and hold his opponents down for north of 4 minutes. However, he’s only won 2 of those fights. Part of that is because Emmers doesn’t do much once he gets the takedown or he gasses himself out with his shots and absorbs damage on the feet as a result. The bottom line for “Prettyboy” is that he has the complete MMA skillset to be a solid fighter, but his game plan or fight IQ consistently get in the way of his success.

Buzukja is an easy guy to root for and should have a big crowd cheering for him on Saturday. He comes from Longo’s gym in New York and UFC 295 is taking place at the Garden. Beyond the hometown crowd he’ll have cheering, Buzukja is an all-action fighter who pushes a pace early and wants to throw down for a fight-filled fifteen minutes or until someone drops.

His pressure, power, and persistence have resulted in a bit of a cult following but did not result in him getting a shot in the UFC until recently. That is because, despite his fan-friendly style, Buzukja can be his own worst enemy in the cage sometimes. Like a horse with blinders, Buzukja can get tunnel vision and head hunt the finish rather than taking the path of least resistance to win a round.

He fights with aggression and mixes in calf and front kicks well with his above average in the pocket boxing. His cardio, chin, and forward pressure give a lot of opponents fitz. But, those who are capable of sniping the forward moving Buzukja with well-timed counters, fluid footwork, and patient strikes have given the NY native problems.

In these fights, where Buzukja is caught chasing, he seems to get frustrated and try even harder to find the off-switch. That tunnel vision only makes it easier for technicians to stick’n move en route to a decision win. However, when he’s composed, Buzukja’s mix of powerful boxing, well-incorporated kicks, strong takedown defense, and heart make him a fun fighter to watch and a difficult one to face.

Emmers vs Buzukja prediction

Simply put, I feel the odds on this fight are too wide. Emmers is the more experienced and likely more skilled mixed martial artist; but, he shouldn’t warrant a -280 price tag. Both of these fights have positive skills; but, also and more importantly, concerning gaps. Buzukja will likely be the aggressor in this fight and carry more power.

So, if he can find his range, I expect him to land the higher volume and the more damaging shots. Conversely, if Emmers fights intelligently behind his jab and with footwork, he should be able to stick’n move for 15 minutes, forcing Buzukja to chase and overswing, hitting air more often than not. Additionally, while both men struggle from their backs, both also have some offensive wrestling chops.

However, neither typically can land reliable takedowns nor hold opponents for long periods of time. This fight, to me, comes down to Emmers’ fight IQ- something that has been inconsistent in the UFC- and Buzukja’s ability to stay composed.

Given the wide odds, I’ll be happy to play Buzukja to win and sprinkle a little on him by knockout when those odds come out. I like Buzukja’s persistent volume, pressure, and heavier shots to win a close decision or even get the hometown crowd started with an upset KO.

Best Bet: Buzukja to win (+225 at BetUS)

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Diego Lopes quickly became a fan favorite with his signature hairdo and more so after nearly upsetting Movsar Evloev on short notice at UFC 288. His opponent, Pat Sabatini, was viewed as one of the top prospects in the division before a knockout loss to Damon Jackson in 2022. In his return in June of this year, he earned a dominant victory over Lucas Almeida that has put him back in contention for a shot at the rankings should he earn a win this weekend.

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Sabatini vs Lopes Betting Odds

The line has been nearly even since it opened with Sabatini being a slight favorite.

• Pat Sabatini: -120 (BetUS)
• Diego Lopes: -110 (BetUS)

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Sabatini vs Lopes Fight Breakdown

Saturday night will be Diego Lopes’s third UFC bout and already his second main card appearance on a pay-per-view. The 28 year old is 1-1 in the promotion and 22-6 overall with 20 of those wins coming by way of stoppage. Lopes has found success mostly with his submissions in the UFC, giving Movsar Evloev a few scares in their short notice bout at UFC 288 and submitting Gavin Tucker in under two minutes his last time out.

The grappling of Lopes is dangerous regardless if he’s in the dominant position. He doesn’t rely a lot on his takedown defense because he’s so confident off his back with his submissions and for good reason. Off his back, he utilizes his legs in his guard and is constantly throwing them up towards the shoulders of his opponent, waiting for them to react and attacking armbars, leg locks, triangles, and pretty much any other submission you can imagine.

From the top position, Diego looks just as dominant. He has quick transitions and rains down ground n pound to again draw out defensive reactions from his opponent so he can pick a submission and attack. He does get a bit too reliant on these submissions when he’s in the defensive position and when he doesn’t get the tap, it can come back to hurt him. As he targets different submissions, he allows his opponent to do damage from the top position and, if he’s facing a grappler who can keep themselves out of any serious danger, he’ll drop these rounds because he chose to attack submissions over trying to return to his feet.

When Diego Lopes is standing, he’s more than willing to engage in the striking. He has a good straight right hand from orthodox but can be inconsistent with it and swing wildly if his opponent throws first. He has a tendency to back out of range initially before covering up and taking the shots to his guard where they often find their way through. He’s tough and fires back heavy counter shots but as he gets deeper in the fight, these strikes become slower and easier to avoid. He does have a good right kick as well that he used to target the leg and body early but seemed to abandon after round one against Evloev.

His opponent, Pat Sabatini, is another high level grappler with five wins in the UFC. Sabatini is a tremendous wrestler with heavy top control and ground n pound. He’s very good at staying safe when he’s in top position and advances positions smoothly. He has good submissions but likes to throw punches and elbows until his opponent gives up their back where he latches in the body triangle and attacks the choke.

The takedowns of Pat Sabatini are some of the best in the featherweight division. He has a variety of ways to get his opponent down but his best work comes along the fence where he can work for underhooks and grab the body lock. This negates the upper half of his opponent’s defense as he methodically wraps up their legs and works for trips that often see him land in half guard. If he isn’t getting the takedowns along the cage, he relies either on timing his opponent’s entries or dipping his head and looping some heavy strikes before shooting for the hips.

The strength of Sabatini lies in his grappling but on the feet, he’s capable of doing some good damage. He mainly fights from the conventional stance but likes to go southpaw to blast the left kick to the open side of fellow orthodox fighters. His punches are often counter hooks that he throws after level changing which opens up the counter takedowns later on. This constant up and down movement can get a little telegraphed and was a large part of his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Though he likes to time his opponent’s kicks and catch them for takedowns, he can be caught by these same strikes.

Diego Lopes should be ready to defend the takedowns of Sabatini in this matchup. Though Lopes has good submissions off his back, Sabatini does a very good job of keeping his opponent out of positions where they can do so. He controls wrists constantly and often lands his takedowns in side control where he’ll negate a majority of Diego’s submissions. If we’re to go off of previous performances, Lopes will welcome a fight off his back if and when Pat shoots for a takedown.

For Sabatini, he’ll likely find plenty of takedown opportunities due to the reactions of Lopes on the feet. Diego can freeze up to feints and level changes which often leads to him getting tagged or taken down. If he can take advantage of those opportunities to get in tight and clinch with Lopes, he can work towards taking him down along the fence to avoid the guard.

Sabatini vs Lopes prediction

Lopes will have a legitimate shot of winning this one if he can keep this on the feet and force Sabatini to strike at range. However, even if he’s able to keep Sabatini off of him early, the gas tank of Lopes begins to deplete after round one while Pat Sabatini can fight at a high pace for a full fifteen minutes. As the fight goes on, it’ll be easier for Pat to find openings to land heavy shots before finding a takedown. Sabatini’s top pressure and wrist control from half guard should negate the submission game of Lopes and force him to rely on returning to his feet (which isn’t something we’ve seen him attempt too much). I like Sabatini to get it done by submission or decision, but with the odds nearly even, I’ll take him on the moneyline.

Prediction: Pat Sabatini to win (-120 at BetUS)

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The post Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes prediction & odds | UFC 295 appeared first on The Body Lock.

However, his toughest opponent to date stands in front of him next. A former soldier in the French Army, Saint-Denis has undeniable toughness and heart. However, it’s this, plus his top-notch grappling skills and powerful striking that make him such a threat. Currently riding a winning streak of four, Saint-Denis has lost only once in his entire pro career.

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Betting Odds

Matt Frevola will come into the bout as a +190 underdog against the fighter from France.

• Matt Frevola: +190 (BetUS)
• Benoit Saint Denis: -230 (BetUS)

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Frevola vs Saint-Denis Fight Breakdown

Matt Frevola is on a first-round finish streak in his last three fights. Surprisingly, at one point he was believed to be a slow starter at times but with the new belief in his KO power we will likely see an aggressive Frevola early. This is also likely because the gameplan going in is probably to shut down the takedowns of Saint-Denis and force him to trade. Frevola is a tough, conventional stance fighter with a big overhand a hard kicks from both sides. Opposite the southpaw Saint-Denis, he will be looking to paw with the left hand and lead his combinations with his right cross and overhand and follow up in combination with the left afterwards.

Frevola tends to be the one moving forward, however he is arguably most dangerous when he is put on the fence as he has a unique ability to be pushed back and then explode out. In his recent streak, he was pressured and then lunged back out with a big superman punch for the knockdown, and also was being backed up before countering a body shot with his back to the cage again for another knockdown. Frevola should never be counted out because at the times where he is being pressed is when he can land the bombs unexpected.

That being said, there are some tells that Frevola offers which Saint-Denis can capitalize on. First, Frevola is very fast but he bites on a lot of feints with his go-to overhand right to roll out on his right side. He also often has difficulty finding his range for his big punches early on in the fight, if Saint Denis can bait out that overhand, he can count on Frevola missing and rolling away towards that side and setup what he throws to that reaction. Saint Denis has a great left kick of his own, standing southpaw himself so if he can time the right hand of Frevola he could catch him rolling onto his power kick side.

Yet, Saint-Denis’ clearest way to victory is to mix everything together and get Frevola to the canvas as often as he can. Frevola is a solid scrambler and wrestler but will give up his back in the process. Saint-Denis has a tremendous blast double, and even better control once he gets it there. He will duck under shoot, which could be done on the overhand read, and he also likes to set up his level change with a left kick, step through left hook. Once on the mat, Saint-Denis immediately gets to lacing the legs beneath him in a triangle of sorts, forcing his opponents to turn away and expose the back. Frevola does so anyway, so expect Saint-Denis to have success finding the opportunities for this transition. One of Saint-Denis’ most seamless grappling techniques is to reach around for far wrist control and whip his legs from the leg lace to the body triangle on the back in a single beat.

Frevola vs Saint-Denis Prediction

Matt Frevola’s keys to victory are stuffing the takedowns, and turning those sequences into scrambles where he can get back to the feet and push the pace. He wants to force Saint-Denis to trade with him at boxing range where he can lead, and counter with the right overhand and left hook.

For Saint-Denis it’s about using his kicks and finding the shot to the hips. Best case scenario would be taking Frevola down in space where he cannot use the cage, however it’s likely he will have to deal with that.

Ultimately I think that Frevola needs to depend on a potential KO to win, whereas Saint Denis has just as likely a chance to stop Frevola, but also out score him with precise striking and grappling control en route.

Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis to win (-230)

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