The former Brazilian sensation has hit a rough patch since her attempt at a flyweight debut against Erin Blanchfield at the beginning of the year, where she got mauled and submitted in the second round, subsequently losing her following two fights via finish.

Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern, has bounced back from a tough loss against mutual opponent, Yan Xiaonan, and is looking to once again put together a streak to start a title run.

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Andrade vs Dern Betting Odds

Likely because of the skid Andrade’s been on, Dern comes into this bout as a notable favorite.

• Mackenzie Dern: -205 (BetUS)
• Jessica Andrade: +170 (BetUS)

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Andrade vs Dern Fight Breakdown

A lot of people are quick to chalk this fight up as a short, powerful striker against a strong, technical grappler; when really, it’s just a bout between two distinct styles of Brazilian MMA. Jessica Andrade is one of the few fighters in the sport to carry the old style of chute boxing, using her powerful hands to back up her opponent to eventually shoot an explosive takedown and either grind her opponents throughout the rest of the bout or finish them with vicious ground-and-pound or a ruthless submission. Dern is entirely different, and much more reminiscent of the newer style of Brazilian MMA; a strong, comfortable striking stance with the confidence to do damage off the back, execute a sweep, or hunt a submission if she gets taken down.

This makes it a much more interesting bout than a lot of people expect it to be, with the outcome largely being determined by the defensive ability of both women. If Dern wants to win, she needs to stay out of the pocket and away from Andrade’s devastating power. She should do relatively well if she fights well off her jab and intelligently times her grappling exchanges when on the feet. I feel like if Andrade manages a takedown, the grappling pedigree and unpredictability of Dern could overwhelm her, even if she’s on top, and could quickly get an entire round stolen from her if she’s not on point. Because of this, Andrade needs to be the aggressor in the fight. She needs to find her way into the pocket and lay on heavy strikes when she can. I would be hesitant to take her down until the third round, where the likelihood of a submission is much safer.

Andrade vs Dern Prediction and Betting Guide

Overall, I’m gonna go with Dern here, just because I think she has more ways to win. Her striking has improved significantly throughout her career, especially since her fight with Marina Rodriguez where a lot of the holes in her game on the feet were exposed.

Andrade is great, but her recent bouts against strong grapplers who were of the same caliber as Dern, like Blanchfield and Suarez, show that she folds when she gets put on her back, and can quickly gas out in such a situation. I’m going Dern via decision, just because I think the fights going to be on the feet for longer than most think, but really wouldn’t be surprised by a submission somewhere in the fight.

Pick: Mackenzie Dern via Decision (+350) or Mackenzie Dern via Submission (+120)

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Mackenzie Dern, a name synonymous with Jiu-Jitsu excellence in MMA, is weaving a narrative that extends far beyond her grappling prowess. In a pre-fight interview with Brett Okamoto from ESPN, Dern revealed her aspirations to build a lasting brand, hinting at future ventures that could redefine her legacy in the sport.

“We’re trying to build a brand… starting to really brand Mackenzie,” Dern shared, her focus clear on the horizon beyond her fighting career. With plans that include a diverse range of merchandise, Dern is not waiting for the final bell to ring before she starts building her future.

“Hopefully we can get like a lingerie line eventually, bikini line, clothes, gi line, but let’s get the belt first,” she added.

Dern’s foresight is a testament to the evolving landscape of MMA, where fighters are increasingly recognized not just for their athletic achievements but also for their marketability and business acumen.

“I’ve always wanted to have my own line… knowing that eventually we stop to fight, you know, and you can’t be getting punched in the face forever,” Dern stated, acknowledging the inevitable transition every fighter faces.

Her approach is reflective of a trend where athletes capitalize on their sports careers to launch business ventures. Ronda Rousey’s transition from Olympic judoka to UFC champion and then to WWE star and actress has paved the way for fighters like Dern to envision a multifaceted career.

As Dern prepares to face Andrade, a formidable opponent known for her power and aggression, she remains grounded in the reality of her sport’s demands and the fleeting nature of athletic prime.

“I think now is the time that we can really be able to try and focus on the brand of Mackenzie,” she said, indicating that her ambitions are as much about her identity outside the cage as her performance within it.

As Dern steps into the Garden, her thoughts are as much on the fight as they are on the future. With a clear vision for her brand and a determination to succeed, she represents the modern MMA fighter — one who is as strategic with their career choices as they are with their fight tactics.

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You can catch all the action exclusively on ESPN+, with the main card kicking off at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, following the Prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

Now, we understand you’re here for more than just the hype. You want some solid fight predictions, betting tips, and analysis. Our team have their UFC Fight Night predictions primed and ready. You’ll find their takes on the Dern vs. Hill fight right here. For more fight predictions on the rest of the card, you can head over to our UFC predictions page.

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Betting Odds

As of now, Dern is the betting favorite at -175. This means you would need to bet $175 to win $100 if Dern comes out on top. Find the solid -175 odds over at BetUS before this fight.

On the other hand, Hill is the underdog with odds of +146. If you bet $100 on Hill and she pulls off the upset, you stand to gain $146. These odds are available at MyBookie before the UFC Fight Night 224 main event.

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Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

This weekend’s main event is a fantastic matchup between the best BJJ player to ever transition into the Women’s UFC divisions and a fighter in Angela Hill that fans have truly watched grow up and evolve in the octagon over the past decade.

Mackenzie Dern is a wild striker. She tends to rush forward with big loopy punches which can get her in trouble. However, the trade-off is because she barrels forward with reckless abandon at times, she has been able to sometimes bully opponents to the fence in order to get in close and initiate her grappling. Otherwise, although good strikers may be able to deal with her with good slick head movement, if she does connect, it’s often a powerful shot.

Angela Hill is a very good striker, so expect her to deal with that forward pressure very well, using angles, and her reach to tag Dern from the outside. She has an exceptional jab and very good kicks. However, when dealing with the threat of better grapplers, she has been known to sink into her stance more to prepare herself to sprawl, which then limits some of her movement on the feet, allowing more clashing and potentially ending up in a clinch. This is a preferred method of takedown for Mackenzie Dern, who wants to tie up her opponents and drag them to the mat from some kind of body lock. For Hill, in order to maintain her rage and keep Dern at Hill’s preferred range, she must control the center of the cage and play the matador, by maintaining the potential area to move backward, and if used, find a way to get back to the middle.

For Dern, she has to use her pressure over five rounds to try and draw out mistakes from Hill. That means forcing her backward to the fence, which means being the last to land when they exchange and making it a tiring fight. As the fight goes on it’s more likely that Hill gets heavier in her stance and becomes easier to catch. A lot of the time Hill will overthrow and stuff her own range, moving forward in her combinations and crashing into a clinch. That is when Dern has to get to double underhooks or a Whizzer and attack trips and takedowns without hesitation.

If Hill finds herself trapped on the mat it could very be a wrap. The battle for her should be not getting to the ground in the first place because even if Dern does not find the submission, she has a history of dominating rounds if they grapple. This is because Dern is so good at continually chaining and transitioning to new threats. Where a lot of BJJ players find trouble is when they pull guard and settle first, whereas Dern tends to jump guard and initially attack or trap a limb just to force engagement, before then switching to a different attack or sweep and moving the exchange along. In this way she is always a move or two ahead of her opponents in the jiu-jitsu scrambles, watch for her to drag her opponents down directly into a kimura grip just to attack a leg or the back.

One of the knocks on Hill to no fault of her own is because she has never been known as a power puncher she has lacked the ability to finish opponents in the past even if she was been the sharper fighter. This has led to a lot of decisions, so against someone like Dern who throws maybe not the cleanest but dangerous strikes and is a phenom grappler, it’s really on Hill to go 25 minutes with as few mistakes as possible. On the other hand, it’s on Dern to capitalize on any mistakes she does see over those 25 minutes, and I could very much see that happen if she has the confidence to move forward and fight assertively.

Pick: Mackenzie Dern to win (-175 odds at BetUS)

Michael Pounders

Mackenzie Dern, 30, nearly climbed to the top of the strawweight mountain but lost her title eliminating opportunities via decision. Overall, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace has a 7-3 UFC record with 4 submission wins and all 3 losses coming via decision. It’s rare that a fighter’s record truly embodies who they are in the cage; but, in Dern’s case, her record represents her game perfectly. She is lethal on the mat, as evident by 4 of her 7 wins by submission. She is incredibly tough and difficult to hurt, as evident by her never being finished. But, she struggles to win closely contested fights, as evident by her 3 decision losses, one of which was a split.

Digging a bit deeper, Dern’s submission skills are well known and truly impressive; but, her overhand right into a telegraphed takedown approach to wrestling has resulted in several fights staying on the feet, where she is out of her element. On the feet, Dern has a solid chin, decent power, and a perpetual ability to walk forward through volume. Her striking is a work in progress. Dern has a negative strike differential and lands below a 50% clip. However, her volume is improving, her combinations are more refined, and she sets up her shots better. At the end of the day, though, Dern’s primary, secondary, and tertiary game plan is to get the fight to the mat where she can fluidly hunt the finish.

Where Dern is a limited striker with subpar wrestling, Hill is a varied striker with reliable defensive wrestling. “Overkill” looks to implement her nickname on the feet. With excellent cardio and an ability to land a variety of strikes for the full fight, Hill’s game plan is often rooted in overwhelming her opponent on the feet and landing damage in the clinch. At range, the orthodox fighter an even distribution of attacks, hurting the legs, body, and head of her opponent.

Hill can land her leg kick, body kick, and jab from range with precision and consistency. Then, when her opponent crashes distance or Hill traps her foe against the cage, “Overkill” can land with more power from the clinch. Her range striking is more stick’n move while her clinch elbows and knees are more impactful. Hill’s defensive wrestling is a product of her cardio, volume, and movement. She is can fight with a consistently high pace for a full 25 minutes and she is rarely standing in one place on the canvas. Because her opponents often are dealing with her volume and a moving target, their takedown attempts are labored or telegraphed, giving Hill ample opportunity to keep the fight standing.

If the fight hits the mat, though, Hill severely struggles. She scrambles well initially, using athleticism and strength to desperately get back to her feet. But, if an opponent can settle on top, Hill rarely can get back to her feet before the round ends. More often, once down, Hill will ride out the round from her back and do her best to avoid being finished. The strategy has resulted in her only being finished twice out of 27 professional fights; but, the other side of the coin is Hill losing decisions when she’s controlled on the mat.

I think this line is off and overly skewed from recency bias. Dern is a high-level submission artist who was on a championship-challenging track until she lost to Marina Rodriguez, who was also on a championship-challenging track until recently and Xiaonan Yan who will likely challenge for the belt next. Meanwhile, Hill has a 10-12 (that isn’t a typo) UFC record and has recently beat two solid prospects, both unranked and who oddly enough fight each other on this same card. Yes, Hill’s record is riddled with controversial decisions.

Yes, styles make fights and Dern’s lack of wrestling, inability to get a submission last time out, and striking gaps is the perfect recipe for Hill’s brand of volume striking and stout defensive wrestling. However, as Cory Anderson said: “there are levels,” and Dern is just a level above Hill. I expect the fight to look close early but Dern to land the heavier shots. Then, when Hill inevitably clinches, Dern will find a takedown and the submission soon after. Maybe I’m just wrong about Dern’s ability but I truly believe she is just the better fighter and the recency bias will be corrected Saturday night.

Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern to win (-175 odds at BetUS) and Dern by sub (+170)

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Joe Pounders

Mackenzie Dern, the 8th-ranked strawweight, is a specialist when it comes to fighting. Similarly to Charles Oliveria, opponents are often fearful of going to the mat with Dern, as she has one of, if not, the most dangerous submission games spanning the entire UFC, able to win at a moment’s notice through a variety of attacks both in top position and off of her back.

A submission specialist is often feared, but, sustains less success than specialties in striking and wrestling. The reason for this is that with submissions, the inherent need is for the fight to hit the mat, or at the very least, end up in the clinch. Often, closing the gap on the feet to find an angle and shoot a legitimate takedown is a feat many submission-first fighters find challenging when facing strong grapplers, and Dern is no different as evidenced by her bleak 11% takedown success rate. Failure to get the fight where she needs it to be to have the greatest disparity in talent between herself and her opponent is indeed a problem, however, the former top 5 ranked fighter understands the growth areas of need to propel her into title contention, and the mere awareness of said need is a significant positive in her favor.

The growth that Dern has focused on thus far is finding some semblance of success with striking compared to greatly enhancing her wrestling capabilities. This choice is likely the correct one at that, as fighters such as Charles Oliveria, Gilbert Burns, and others have shown that submission-first fighters can find significant in-octagon success with striking given they can throw without any worry of overextending and getting taken to the mat. The key difference between Dern and others is the inherent power threat she has, or rather, lack thereof. Because she does not have the one-punch power on her feet, she limits the significant success she can have there. Knowing this, Dern has focused on landing clean strikes and using striking to set up her grappling, and if she continues to excel in the latter, then she can increase her 11% takedown success rate, get the fight to the mat, and once there, show off her elite skills.

Needing to enhance attributes to allow for a specialty to flourish is not needed for Angela Hill. This is because she, like other high-end UFC fighters, is a well-rounded fighter who weaponizes cardio through non-stop pressure and output. This style of fighting, particularly in the strawweight division where decision victories are quite common, would seem like a recipe for sustained success. And, while Hill has indeed secured victories over talented fighters, twelve fights, four of which have come by split decision in the UFC. This split decision outcome is due to a culmination of Hill finding success through output and cardio, but, often fails to truly separate from her opponent within a given round. This lack of ability is worrisome, but she has done a better job of late with landing sharp, damaging elbows in the clinch, and keeping the fight where she desires. The latter will be paramount in this fight, given Hill will need to use her 77% career takedown defensive rate to keep the fight standing, and if done, she can win; if, however, the fight hits the mat, while Hill is typically good there, in this fight, there will be a stark disparity in the favor of her opponent.

This fight, which was initially 3-rounds, is now a 5-round affair that favors both fighters in differing ways. For Dern, the longer the fight is, the more chances she has with getting the fight to the mat to secure a submission win. For Hill, a longer fight means the cardio and pressure advantage she often has will only loom greater in a 5-round bout. So, the question will be if Dern can get the fight to the mat, in a secure position, to find a submission, or will Hill continue her success on the feet to win a close decision?

Given the fight-ending favor is far greater for Dern than Hill coupled with the fact that Hill inherently fights close fights even if she is seeming to be better, I believe the possible paths to victory are greater for Dern than it is for Hill. Because of this, and because Hill has shown the ability to be submitted in the past albeit her grappling has improved, I am electing to go Dern here. And, given the 5-round duration of the fight, I believe Dern can get the fight to the mat where I expect her to find a submission finish.

Pick: Dern by Submission (+170)

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The post UFC Fight Night 224 Predictions: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill appeared first on The Body Lock.

Focusing on the main event, Dern returns following her split decision win against Tecia Torres in April at UFC 273. Dern is now 7-2 in the UFC and has won five of her last six fights, with her only defeat in that time coming against Marina Rodriguez.

Yan is on a two-fight skid after what was an impressive six-fight winning streak to start her time in the UFC. Yan’s streak of wins included victories against Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Angela Hill, and more. But recently, Yan was defeated by Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez.

Betting Odds

Mackenzie Dern’s a moderate betting favorite before the UFC Fight Night 211 main event this weekend.

• Mackenzie Dern: -235 (BetUS)
• Yan Xiaonan: +185 (BetUS)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Yan Xiaonan is one of the quickest and most dynamic fighters in the division. She has excellent Sanda striking, which is busy and technical. She likes to skirt the outside, staying on her bike and picking her opponent apart by bouncing in and out with her jab, then jab-fake and chaining in her right straight. Once established, she uses her in and out movement to draw out the counter so that she can land her fade-away left hook. By utilizing her jab and constantly circling, she allows herself to stay ahead on the cards often, by filling the space in volume and being generally busier.

She also has fantastic kicks, however, this becomes less applicable against a fighter like Dern. Claudia Gadelha, although an opponent from two years ago, is the highest level jiu jitsu black belt Yan has fought prior to Dern. What we can learn from that fight is that early on, Yan’s kicks were caught which is what put her on her back defending on the bottom. Yan is good at staying active and looking to slice up with elbows on her back and using the fence, but technically she is at a massive disadvantage in grappling against Dern. She generally does not threaten with much submission offense on her back or execute sweeps on high level BJJ players, plus her striking activity on the mat may be muted by the heightened threat of Dern snatching a limb. Yan’s primary goal should be to stuff Dern’s shots and drag her into deep waters on the feet by maintaining her range and using her jab.

If Yan does choose to kick, Dern has to make the most of those opportunities. On the feet she can’t keep up with the accuracy and footwork of Yan, but what she does have is a powerful right hand and a good right body kick. Her overhand and right straight have been the highlights in her striking within the UFC so far, while she does not throw the body kick as often, she has had success when she has, and it seems to be a crisp technique. It works particularly well as she tends to over extend with her hands, allowing her opponents to angle and slip off of the line, but by chaining her kicks onto the end of her combination, she in a way cuts off the escape route.

Dern has had difficulty with wrestling her opponents to the mat which is where she tends to lose fights. Even if she can catch Yan’s kicks and establish a single leg, she tends to trip out the remaining leg rather than commit to the shot and drive through. However, where she finds her most success, is if she can swarm with pressure and put Yan against the cage where she tends to skirt around anyway, Dern can enter a clinch and drag her down. Dern is very good at lacing the upper body and jumping guard against the fence, and most importantly immediately establishing a threat. Where many guard players end up in trouble is keeping their opponent engaged once it hits the mat, Dern by instantly securing a limb, forces her opponents to entertain the grappling match and give up position in order to defend against the submission, and this opens numerous opportunities for Dern. In her last fight against Tecia Torres, Dern attacks a standing Kimura, which pulls Torres onto her, she then underhooks Torres’s leg to establish a sweep but transitions to a leg lock instead. Once Dern starts a sequence she opens up varying avenues for herself. The main problem she has to solve is initially getting her opponent to lace up in a clinch.

It’s no surprise that Yan will be looking to remain on the feet and Dern, the mat. This is where the fight will be won and lost, ultimately Yan is as mobile a fighter as Dern has faced but she has struggled on her back. Over five rounds, if Dern stays disciplined and answers Yan’s strikes with pressure, I think she can eventually force Yan into a clinch and drag her to the canvas.

Pick: Mckenzie Dern to win

Michael Pounders

Since Dern made her debut in 2018, I’ve been impressed by her game because she, in a division where fights often reach the judges, has the ability to find the finish. All 7 of Dern’s wins inside the distance have come via submission. This is no surprise considering how truly talented she is in jiu-jitsu. Dern tends to favor armbar submissions, where she pivots her hips in an instant and can nearly snap her opponent’s arm clean off before anyone knows what happened. While an armbar is her go-to submission, Dern has a full weaponry of high level submissions in her arsenal. Like many submission aces, early in her career, Dern struggled to get the fight to the mat.

Recently, though, Dern’s wrestling has improved and her offensive grappling has become more aggressive. Her striking is still rudimentary and if the fight stays on the feet for a prolonged period of time, Dern can get pieced up. Her typical fight style is to pressure forward, and look to crash distance as quickly as possible. Dern is athletic and powerful but unrefined and technically limited so she finds the most success on the feet when striking in the pocket. Her striking is designed to set up a clinch or open up an opportunity for a takedown. Often, Dern will unleash a telegraphed but powerful overhand right that is meant to stun her opponent and immobilize them which makes a takedown easier to land. Or, if the strike misses, it allows Dern to follow her momentum into a takedown attempt. If the takedown fails, Dern can still win valuable minutes with clinch control and has recently shown impressive ability to attempt submissions even from a standing position. The typical way Dern has lost, which has only happened twice in the UFC, is when she faces a high volume and skillful striker with reliable takedown defense.

Yan fulfills two of the above three criteria, which is what makes this fight so fascinating. Yan is a high volume and highly skilled striker but her takedown defense is less than reliable. Yan is a combination kickboxer who can land, from range, with consistent volume and real pop. Similarly to Dern, in a division where many fights reach the judges, Yan has proven the ability to end the fight. Yan has finished 7 of her 15 wins inside the distance, all of which have been by knockout. Typically, Yan moves laterally around the edge of the octagon, bouncing lightly on her feet and fighting, intelligently, behind her jab. When she plants, often in instances of countering an opponent who overextended, Yan throws a quick combination and is able to work the head and body with precision. Then, she’ll get back on her bike and continue her movement. Yan hasn’t finished a fight in the UFC, but, she has stunned and hurt opponents with this striking style. Yan’s body and head kick are especially snappy and powerful.

The question in this fight is whether or not Yan can defend the takedown for 5 rounds. She should have the cardio and striking style to stick’n move for 25 minutes but she’ll need to keep the fight standing if she wants to come out victorious. In her most recent two fights, one against a supreme wrestler and one against a well-rounded but primary striker, Yan was taken down 5 times out of 8 attempts. Her movement, kicking game, and experience create a difficult and dangerous target for opponents to attempt to takedown. But, when Yan plants to generate power, opponents have been able to take advantage of the stationary target.Neither woman has proven to have 25-minute cardio, neither woman has proven to shine bright under main event lights, and both women have the skills to exploit the other’s weakness. That’s why I’m surprised by the odds in this one. I anticipated Dern being the favorite but not the more than the 2:1 favorite she is. While I think Dern’s betting line is overly juiced, I still like her to win. Yan is unlikely to put Dern away so Dern will have 25 minutes to find a takedown. Once down, Dern has the special kind of submission game to end the fight.

Pick: Dern by Sub

Joe Pounders

Mackenzie Dern is one of my favorite fighters to watch given she has one of the most elite attributes across the entire UFC – world-class jiu-jitsu. For context, she is an ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Champion and has finished 7 of her 12 professional MMA wins by submission. This elite attribute of finishing fights on the mat makes her an extremely fun fighter to watch, but also, makes her one of, if not, the most dangerous fighter to face off against given if it hits the mat, it is likely over.

The above statement of her potentially being the most dangerous strawweight on the roster is not hyperbole because she may have the greatest fight-ending ability in the division. But, to argue against myself, Dern’s danger is not fully extended to danger in the opposition losing, as Dern has more flaws than the other elite contending strawweight. Specifically, she has developing striking that is quite rudimentary in nature. While her in-and-out movement along with natural fighting skills allows her to find some success on the feet prior to the fight hitting the mat against non-elite contenders, her less-than-elite striking becomes exacerbated when fighting the best of the division. This disparity in high-end ability on the feet would be less of a concern if Dern’s wrestling was elite, given elite wrestling coupled with elite submissions would nullify striking concerns; but, when facing good competitors, Dern has had trouble getting the fight to the mat through her own wrestling. This difficulty is not too surprising knowing other elite jiu-jitsu fighters lack elite wrestling, but even though not surprising, it is a significant issue for Dern given if the fight fails to hit the mat, it is more than likely Dern will fail to get the win when facing the elite of the elite.

Where Dern is consistent in her fight approach and performance(s) put forth, Yan Xiaonan is the exact opposite. When coming up in the strawweight division, Yan was touted as a future title challenger, likely being the one to test Weili Zhang at the time. This high-end perception was warranted, as Yan showcased time after time talented striking with strong offensive wrestling when needed/decided. More specifically, Yan routinely displayed a plethora of offensive attacks on the feet, all of which were thrown with speed, damage, and technique. While she does still have a wealth of attacks to throw on the feet, the effectiveness of striking has fallen short when fighting the elite of the elite in striking. Moreover, her grappling, which is still solid from an offensive end, proved to be quite poor when put on her back by Carla Esparza, as Yan had nothing for the Cookie Monster – likely the best wrestler in the division.

So, while Yan has good size and natural offensive talent everywhere, she struggles to defend against an elite attack by an opposition. If she can show improvement in this area, she is more than good enough to attack against what her opposition does poorly which is a very good tactic to win fights. Fortunate for Yan is that the elite attribute of Dern is a facet of MMA that needs a set-up to get there, so while I expect Yan to look poor on her back against Dern, she has all the skills needed to use footwork and technique on the feet to keep range, and once Dern shoots, Yan does have the skills needed to negate takedowns.

As much as I want to go Dern in nearly ever one of her fights, she needs to show improvement in either striking or wrestling for me to back her at a steep price over the top of the strawweight division. Because I believe she’ll be at a clear disadvantage on the feet coupled with believing Yan can negate the takedown shots from Dern, I do believe Yan should win this fight. But, if Dern manages to create a scramble and/or Yan shows poor fight IQ with offensive wrestling in this bout, Dern will finish the fight if it hit the mat.

Choosing between “should win” and “will win IF” is difficult, but, given the disparity of price on the fighters is significant, I will happily let the value on Yan sway me in backing her in this fight. Her striking should allow her to win most of the round while keeping distance, and once the inevitable clinch occurs, she has the skills necessary to keep the fight standing for the scheduled 15-minute affair.

Pick: Yan to win

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For Torres, three in a row could turn to four with a win over Dern. After picking off Angela Hill in August of last year Tecia Torres proved herself on a legitimate title run. Beating Dern sets her up not only a step closer to the belt but also as one of the best career comebacks in recent memory, going from four straight losses between 2018 and 2019 to four straight wins from 2020 to present.

Betting Odds

The odds on this fight are dead even at -108 apiece.

• Dern: -108
• Torres: -108

Breakdown

Mackenzie Dern is probably the best pure grappler in women’s MMA today. Her ability to establish position before even worrying about strikes or transitions set her apart and is the cause for her ability to always stay in control when the fight hits the mat. Often you will see her pass to half and stop, solidify her balance and then strike to create openings so that she can complete her way to mount or side control. Her ability to also adapt to what her opponents give her is great, and once she does dominate a position, she attacks multiple limbs at once to split her opponent’s focus and ultimately isolate something to finish. One of those is from the back crucifix where she will attack both arms with her upper body and her legs, looking to extend both arms of her opponent, at no point on the mat can Torres feel safe.

For Dern, the keys to victory start at getting the fight to the mat, one of the reasons she has struggled here in the past is against opponents with great takedown defense or a higher wrestling base, finishing the drive through shots can be difficult. An underutilized tactic in my opinion for her is pulling guard, against Marina Rodriguez in her last fight going to single leg X off of the failing shot allowed her to make up for Rodriguez’s great defense because Dern is so quick to sweep anyway. Few fighters will commit to settling and striking Dern on the bottom rather than trying to disengage.

Dern has definitely made improvements in her striking as well but it is still the area that she has holes to expose. She is much lighter on her feet nowadays and her technique is becoming crisper and overall better. Her overhands especially have some devastating power when they land but also miss big when they don’t. The largest point of concern here is her inability to set everything up, she can be caught throwing naked kicks without feints or punches leading in, and get countered while doing so. She also has a tendency to dip and drop her face when she throws the wide jab to set up her overhand, or when she just throws the overhand. If Torres makes a read on this, the uppercut is a danger. She also comes in on a straight line or chases her opponent at times, but defensively she has made a great adjustment in staying on her bike and making herself a moving target. As with any grappler who is making a run as an MMA fighter by adding the striking game later on, simply being a bit less comfortable there also has a bit of an effect on otherwise great cardio, which is where low guards and overextending happens.

Tecia Torres has to make the most of these issues Dern is still working through. Torres’ greatest asset is that she has the rare ability to maintain a high pace while also being one of the most explosive in the division. She utilizes teeps and sidekicks to keep her opponents at bay so that she can blitz in and engage on her terms. She has a variety of techniques used to bridge the gap, often leaping punches, cross-steps and superman techniques, and then exiting with kicks to all levels. Her ability to stay extremely mobile, can force her opponents to overcommit forward in response which is where her best takedowns come in, as her reactive takedowns are her most effective.

Her keys to victory are to stay consistent with her footwork, fighting out of a grappling scenario with Dern is much more dangerous than avoiding position with in and out movement. She has to make reads and exploit Dern’s habits on the feet, and ultimately Dern is more likely to fade than Torres. Dern has a habit of holding on to limbs standing to chase arm drags or hold onto single legs against the fence and taking some punishment for it, by making Dern pay in these positions and escaping, Torres can win but even this should be avoided by staying off the cage at all costs.

The biggest concern in Torres’ repertoire of techniques that have been taken advantage of is because she kicks so often as well as spins for kicks and backfists, she can be caught and dragged down. Dern could look to watch one of Torres’ kicks if she goes back to a combination too often and if she is caught spinning Dern can take the back and she is quick to solidify hooks. If this becomes the case or even an early close call, Torres has to make the adjustment and avoid these risks.

Prediction

Ultimately I think that Torres has the ability to pick Dern apart with her striking and wear her out. Footwork is the biggest element in her victory I believe and if she is the one dictating the pace and octagon presence she can avoid Dern’s best and exploit her weaknesses.

Prediction: Tecia Torres to win

The post UFC 273 Prediction: Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres betting odds, preview appeared first on The Body Lock.

The fight card is set to commence at an earlier time of 1:30 pm with the main card starting at 4:00 pm ET and airing on ESPN+.

Read on for our Dern vs. Rodriguez betting odds and our staff predictions for this weekend’s main event.

Dern vs. Rodriguez betting odds

• Mackenzie Dern: -180
• Marina Rodriguez: +150

Dern vs. Rodriguez predictions

Braeden Arbour

Marina Rodriguez and Mackenzie Dern each have particular strengths that play into each other’s weaknesses. In a general sense, although both dangerous everywhere and by all means have skills everywhere, Rodriguez is one of the best strikers in the strawweight division and Dern likely the best grappler.

Marina Rodriguez is a long-time Muay Thai practitioner and her style depends largely on that base. She has a hunched stance but keeps her head on the centerline, she doesn’t utilize a lot of head movement but doesn’t really need to because of her superb distance control. With a reach of 65 inches that dominates most of the division, Rodriguez is very good at clipping her opponents at the end of her shots. She mixes it up well between straights, wide hooks, teeps, and a solid right body kick, and moves forward constantly. With this pressure and heavy right hand, she often forces her opponents to circle to her left and into her left hook.

She will also commit very strongly to the thrust right straight when her opponent is against the cage because not only is it a devastating punch but she will happily catch herself in the clinch with a post and knee combination if the initial punch misses. However, with her constant forward pressure, she will often eat teep kicks coming in, which does not faze her, although, against Michelle Waterson, her habit of taking the teep and moving forward was exploited when Waterson switched to a stabbing sidekick, hurting Rodriguez when she walked into range.

On the ground is where she has had the most difficulty in her career, she is good at fighting the hands and taking damage to the minimum, but will at the same time accept her back against the mat. From guard she is good at constantly moving and making it a difficult fight but when we have seen her stuck in half guard she has less defensive skills and almost no offensive ones.

This is where Dern does her best work, as a grappler Dern’s ability to establish position before worrying about strikes or finishing transitions is important. Often you will do a half pass from inside her opponent’s full guard to half or half to mount. Against Nina Nunes, Dern tried to pass to mount but had her ankle trapped in quarter guard, so she planted her hips, got high on the chest, and made sure she was in perfect position before raining down punches and hammerfists in order to complete the full transition. If Dern can take Rodriguez down I do not think it will be very competitive.

However, the big question is how can Dern get it there? She has massively improved her striking game over her past couple bouts however still makes fundamental mistakes. Her biggest improvements have been her new ability to stay upright and feint as she moves in, as well as stay lighter on her feet, however, the danger in her striking is still limited primarily to her boxing and in particular, a looping overhand right that comes fast and hard but misses big when it does not connect.

I think the important thing for Dern is to realize she can’t get caught up in beating or even matching Rodriguez strike for strike. When it’s standing, she isn’t going to be winning on the cards, but the important thing is she gains respect, so she needs to pick her shot, set up the right hand, and land enough times for Rodriguez to react to Dern’s feints. If that happens, it will open up the takedown, because with Rodriguez’s skills in the clinch and with her reach, shooting blind is extremely dangerous.

However, because I think the skill gap is larger on the ground I am leaning Dern in this match up. While Rodriguez will likely have to pick apart Dern over time, if Dern can establish ground control early enough to work, the momentum of the fight will move very quickly.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern to win by submission.

Michael Pounders

Dern has a sensational Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and skillset. 7 of her 11 wins have come by submission. Whether through a takedown or pulling guard, she is adept at getting the fight to the mat. Regardless of how the fight gets to the canvas, once there, Dern has shown a special ability to find a limb and force her opponent to tap within seconds. On the feet, Dern is significantly improving. Similar to the men’s lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, Dern was also once seen as an elite submission artist but her striking created a ceiling. Like the champ, Dern’s bread and butter is still her deadly ground game, her striking has improved enough to allow her to hang on the feet while she looks for a takedown. In fact, in her only fight during her win streak that didn’t end with a first-round submission, Dern out-landed her opponent on the feet and secured the win without a single takedown. Dern is young, talented, improving, and has a special skill set to find the submission finish on top or from guard.

Where Dern excels in grappling, wrestling, and BJJ, Rodriguez excels on the feet. Often the taller, longer, and larger woman in the cage, Rodriguez uses her size well to keep opponents at the end of her jab. Then, when they do close the gap, she has the accuracy and power to unleash a devastating combination. In a division that often results in decisions, Rodriguez hast 6 knockout wins. While throwing power punches sometimes causes fighters to gas out and push a slower pace, Rodriguez once again bucks the trend. She has a great gas tank and can continue to throw volume deep into the fight despite her volume often coming with more heat than her opponent’s. In her last fight, Rodriguez landed 144 of 304 total strikes; put simply, that is a lot. If the fight does go to the ground, Rodriguez is capable of getting back to her feet or at least surviving long enough for the round to end. She’s never been submitted in her professional career.

This fight really comes down to two key factors. First, is Dern’s striking improved enough to hang on the feet enough with Rodriguez? Second, can Dern get the fight to the mat? If both answers are yes, Dern should win her 5th fight in a row; but, if either is a no, then Rodriguez can pick Dern apart for 5 rounds. Rodriguez has a respectable 62% takedown defense; but, a large part of that stat is Rodriguez relying on size. Against someone of similar size or a dedicated wrestler, Rodriguez can go down. We saw it against Esparza and Calvillo. Dern should be able to hang on the feet long enough to get in the clinch, drag Rodriguez down, and find a limb. From there, it is only a matter of time before Rodriguez taps. Dern wins, wins impressively, and continues up the rankings.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern by submission

The post Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez Staff Predictions – UFC Fight Night 194 appeared first on The Body Lock.

With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. After all, is it really technical skills that win fights? Or is looking at Derrick Lewis swangin’ and bangin’ memes before you set foot in the cage?

Today we’re breaking down the Covington vs. Woodley main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.

We got 4 out of 5 winners correct last week (including the split decision for Waterson), marking the most successful run this type of analysis has had yet. What’s that you say? Awful officiating that resulted in Ed Herman getting a submission win in what clearly should have been a round 2 TKO for Mike Rodriguez? Sorry guys, but if the sports bookies don’t care about s#*%ty referees, neither do I.

We’ve also got a new format we’re trying out, so I’m covering three main card fights here and discussing the rest with good friend and MMA analyst Ed Gallo in the video below. If you don’t like it, then say something.

Let’s dive in!

Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

Kevin Holland has gone 6-2 in his UFC tenure, losing only to Thiago Santos and Brandan Allen. “The Trailblazer” has been a middleweight staple for some time now, beating up guys whose names you’d recognize, but aren’t really sure what weight class they compete in. This fight will be his third in 4 months, and he’ll be looking for a third straight finish after starching Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley his last two times out.

Darren Stewart last fought this past August, choking out a dude nicknamed “Coconut Bombz” in the first round. Prior to that, “The Dentist” lost to Bartosz Fabinski by unanimous decision at Cage Warriors 113 in March, when Dana White decided he’d let the European promotion pay two of his fighters with very little name value to headline their card in the middle of a pandemic. Weird flex Cage Warriors, weird flex.

Now if we’re talking in terms of “technical skill” Holland should win this fight, but nicknames play a big role in this one. I was only able to find a couple of photos of Holland smiling online without his mouthguard, allowing me to infer that he doesn’t like to show his teeth much. My guess is he’s not flossing regularly, thus dreading his next dentist appointment and giving Stewart, a dentist in his own right, a massive psychological advantage. If Holland has specific teeth issues or, dare I say, Gingivitis, this will be round 1 for sure.

Darren Stewart via TKO R1

Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos

Ah, Mackenzie Dern. Whether it’s the developed accent, the multiple weight misses, or the pregnancy announcement that sent several delusional admirers into a rage about their missed chance with the multiple time ADCC gold medalist, she has rubbed a lot of MMA fans the wrong way. 1-1 since coming back from her childbearing layoff, she became the first woman in UFC history to finish a fight by any form of leg lock last May when she caught Hannah Cifers in a kneebar.

Randa Markos will be making her first trip to the octagon since losing to Amanda Ribas back in March, the only woman to have defeated Dern. “The Quiet Storm” is clearly a disciple of the marvel movie villain Thanos, as she has alternated wins and losses consistently since 2015, regardless of who her competition may be. The only break in this pattern was when she had a majority draw against Marina Rodriguez in 2018, and even then, that technically keeps the balance.

Y’all know how I feel about alternating wins and losses (see Modafferi vs. Lee last week), and the math says Markos is due for a win here. Storm’s a-comin’, though you probably won’t know when it’s here because it’ll be quiet.

Markos via Split Decision

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

In what can be considered a pivotal matchup at 205 lbs. because any fight is significant when the division is that shallow, Johnny Walker will be taking on Ryan Spann in the third main card fight of the night. Once the light heavyweight division’s rising star, Walker’s goofy antics filled hype-train was swiftly derailed when Corey Anderson managed to beat him down at UFC 244 last November. Although he tried to rebound against Nikita Krylov this past March, the Brazilian couldn’t get it done and is now on the first losing streak of his professional career.

Ryan “Superman” Spann on the other hand is on an 8-fight win streak, with six of those wins coming by way of stoppage. Making the most of his second opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series, Spann hasn’t lost a bout since returning to 205 lbs. back in 2017. Although he hasn’t walked out to Shaquille O’Neil’s 1998 hit classic as many times as I would have preferred,  He’s certainly doing his best to live up to his nickname inside the octagon.

To put it simply, Walker is the equivalent of a gigantic 8 -year-old let loose in the octagon after eating a Halloween-size candy haul. He either gets a crazy KO and gives himself a rib injury in celebration, or gets beaten down by an older kid who holds his composure. Even though Spann’s last win was a split decision over Sam Alvey (oof), I’m pretty sure he has the patience and power to knock Walker out. Lex Luthor, Walker is not.

Ryan Spann via R2 TKO

For the rest of the main card picks, check out the video with me and Fight Site/Bloody Elbow MMA analyst Ed Gallo here:

The post S#*%ty UFC Predictions: Covington vs. Woodley appeared first on The Body Lock.

Dern is currently 2-0 in the UFC following wins over Ashley Yoder and Amanda Cooper in 2018. She last competed in May of that year and later took time away from the sport due to pregnancy.

And just four months after giving birth to her daughter, Dern will be returning to action against Amanda Ribas this weekend. Ribas is 7-1 and is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu just like Dern. But the American didn’t really have Ribas on her radar or many fight options for that matter.

“I didn’t have like too many options coming back into the fight,” Dern told The Body Lock’s John Hyon Ko. “I didn’t want them to try and put me against someone in the rankings, top 15 already.

“So they said she [Ribas] had just one [UFC fight] and she was the first girl they offered. I had never heard of her. I know she’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu but I never saw her like [in] the IBJJF or anything like that which I competed at. So I wasn’t familiar with her or heard of her.”

Regardless, a win on Saturday would make it three wins out of three for Dern in the UFC.

She isn’t sure what the future holds afterward, but she does have an overall goal — becoming UFC champion in two different divisions.

“Anytime I try to do a plan, it always gets changed somehow,” she added. “My goal, of course, is to become the champion at 115. I would like to get two belts so go up to 125 after.

“Who knows? I don’t know how soon it will [happen]. For me, I could get there in the next year and a half. But I don’t really have a timeline. Overall, my goal is to become the champion and get two belts eventually.”

You can listen to the full interview below:

The post UFC Tampa’s Mackenzie Dern hopes to eventually become a two-division champion appeared first on The Body Lock.

While those who come from a grappling background are very excited to see the Gracie Academy prodigy Brian Ortega take on MMA legend Frankie Edgar in the co-main event, there is another contest that has been eagerly awaited, and this one is live and free on the FOX Sports 1 undercard.

This weekend will be the highly anticipated UFC debut of jiu-jitsu prodigy Mackenzie Dern, who will be looking to remain undefeated as she takes on Ashley “The Spider Monkey” Yoder in a women’s strawweight bout. Those who have been excited for Dern to compete in the UFC since she first showed interest in mixed martial arts need no motivation to watch these two women compete. But, every fan should be eager to watch this bout as well, as it has the potential to be the debut of a significant competitor in the women’s strawweight division.

Dern’s career as BJJ royalty

The name Mackenzie Dern has been both well respected and feared within the competitive BJJ scene for many years now.

Not only is she the daughter of a living legend, but she has racked up a number of outstanding achievements in both Gi and No-Gi competition. Dern is the daughter of world-renowned jiu-jitsu competitor Wellington “Megaton” Dias, a fifth-degree black belt under the legendary Royler Gracie, who has won just about every title winnable in grappling competition. Megaton started training his daughter at the age of three, and the results of her early introduction to the sport speak for themselves.

Dern’s competition record is beyond impressive. She is a Gi World Champion, a No-Gi World Champion, a two-time Pan American Champion, a two-time Abu Dhabi World Cup Champion, as well as having won the prestigious ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship at the age of 22. These are just a few of the tournaments she’s won gold in, as she has a litany of other second and third place titles to her name as well.

To put it mildly, when it comes to submission grappling, Mackenzie Dern is good. Really, really good.

So far so good in MMA

Since her professional MMA career began a mere two years ago, Dern has managed an impressive five-fight win streak, proving that she is not just another name on the long list of decorated grappler unable to transition successfully into mixed martial arts.

Whether or not she will be able to continue this success at the highest level, however, remains to be seen. So far, we have seen a fighting style that one would expect from a jiu-jitsu specialist such as Dern, with the classic strategy of taking her opponent down and establish a g dominant position, before peppering her opponent with strikes to open up submission opportunities. Dern implemented this game plan perfectly to submit a very tough Kaline Medeiros in her most recent bout. With 55 seconds left in the third round, Dern landed a beautiful inside trip takedown before hip switching past Medeiros’ guard and effortlessly mounting her all in under ten seconds. Dern then battered her opponent with strikes, drawing out Medeiros’ arm and submitting her with a seamless armbar with only 15 seconds remaining in the fight.

While she has proven to be able to effectively implement the classic grappling strategy of takedown, pass, submit, Dern has also shown a level of striking that is well above what any would have expected from her.

Prior to submitting Medeiros in the third, Dern was actually out striking her on the feet, an unexpected occurrence for both Medeiros and the spectators. Preceding the fight with Medeiros, Dern was able to make quick work of her opponent Mandy Polk, dropping her with a clean combination before taking her back and strangling her in the first round.

Her last two bouts have shown Dern is making consistent, consequential improvements in her striking, a trend that if she is able to maintain, will make her an incredibly formidable opponent at 115 lbs.

A tough, but beatable opponent

While this is Dern’s first bout in the UFC, the same can’t be said for her opponent.

Looking to spoil the newcomer’s win streak is Ashley Yoder, who needs to snap a streak of her own. Yoder has fought twice in the UFC, and has lost both times. The UFC brass likely won’t hold on to a fighter with three consecutive loses, so she is going to have to fight like hell if she wants to beat Dern and keep her UFC career alive, a feat which could prove difficult.

Yoder’s primary strength lies in her grappling, with four of her five professional wins coming by way of submission, all being armbars. While her submission game is impressive, she has yet to face a grappler as skilled as Dern, and probably would not fare well in doing so. Yoder makes far too many grappling mistakes, which have gone unexploited by her preceding opponents, but will get her absolutely mauled by a jiu-jitsu practitioner of Dern’s caliber.

In her UFC debut against Justine Kish, Yoder was almost submitted by a deep anaconda choke, and she was unable to impact her opponent with any significant damage or submission attempts the few times she was able to establish top control. In her most recent fight against Angela Hill, she was unable to pass Hill’s half guard, and, again, unable to cause any consequential damage before Hill was able to get back to her feet. Yoder is by no means a bad grappler, in fact she’s quite good, but she is not good enough. Dern has made better grapplers than Yoder look helpless, so if she wants any chance at winning she is going to have to stay off the floor and on her feet, although even that may not be sufficient.

Yoder has shown a level of striking that is higher than what we’ve seen from Mackenzie Dern, but for someone whose strength has always been her submission game it is difficult to see how she will be able to win on Saturday night.

Yoder utilizes an effective lead leg push kick that keeps her opponents away and stifles their takedown attempts, as well as a good counter left, but these will not likely be enough to beat an opponent who has a far superior grappling skill and has shown to be improving her striking at both a fast and consistent rate. Based on their last bouts, one has to give the striking advantage to Yoder, but if Dern has been improving at the pace we have seen previously, it is entirely possible that she shows up on Saturday night with a superior grappling and striking skillset than those of her opponent. And if Yoder is planning to force Dern into a kickboxing match, she hasn’t shown she has the takedown defense to do so.

While her aforementioned lead leg push kick is useful for keeping opponents out of takedown range, if Dern is able to get past it she will likely be able to take her down without too much difficulty, as Yoder was taken down by both Hill and Kish, two fighters with significantly less grappling skill than Dern. Coupled with being completely outclassed on the ground, if Yoder hasn’t made substantial improvements to her striking and takedown defense in the seven months since her last fight, it is hard to see how she will not be taken down and submitted by Dern inside of the first round.

Why every fan should be excited about Dern’s UFC debut

The majority of fans are not likely to know about Dern’s impressive background in both MMA and BJJ competition, and will probably view this fight as just another mediocre preliminary bout.

This is not the case. Anyone who appreciates watching the UFC, whether the casual fan who enjoys the always fun random violence, or the more passionate viewer who watches for the complicated martial arts techniques and narrative driven storylines should watch Mackenzie Dern compete on Saturday night.

Not only does she have the potential for incredibly exciting submission finishes like the omaplata/rear-naked choke combination she used to finish Montana Stewart, but she appears to be improving other aspects of her game at a rate that is indicative of a future serious contender.

Women’s strawweight has always flown a bit under the radar in the UFC, most likely due to Ronda Rousey’s bantamweight career drawing away all the attention of both the fan base and the UFC management. In my opinion, it is the most underappreciated division, although with the upcoming title fight rematch between Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk that seems to be changing. The MMA world is starting to pay the long overdue attention to the exciting and compelling women’s straweight division, and Mackenzie Dern is likely to be a big part of the coming narrative.

You’re not going to want to miss her first test to see if she has what it takes, or if she is just the latest in a long line of over hyped one trick ponies.

The post Mackenzie Dern makes her long-awaited UFC debut at UFC 222 appeared first on The Body Lock.