Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira prediction | UFC Fight Night 223
Cody Brundage (8-3; 2-2 in the UFC), a fighter who has not reached the second round, is set to take on the always-dangerous, Rodolfo Vieira (8-2; 3-2 in the UFC), who has finished all of his UFC wins by submission.
Both Brundage and Vieira have had up and down moments throughout their UFC tenure thus far, but the lone consistency in each of their fight game is the willingness to look for the finish, even if the consequence is getting finished themselves.
Because of this, this fight is likely a FOTN contender and certainly should not reach the judges’ scorecards.
Betting Odds
Rodolfo Vieira is a -230 favorite, with Brundage returning as a +180 underdog.
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Fight Breakdown
Cody Brundage is an accomplished high school wrestler with a 128-22 record and a two-time NCAA DII qualifier. On paper, the success collegiate wrestlers have had in the UFC would warrant the belief that Brundage, being young and athletic, would weaponize wrestling and win with a consistent method of attack. While fair, the reality is that consistency in performance, both with outcome and method of attack, is far from attributable to Brundage, and is why he is 2-2 in the UFC thus far.
The negative to Brudnage’s game is inconsistency in performance, but the positive is him showing building blocks of future success, meaning, he has shown effective wrestling from the outside, and if he can learn to keep heavy top pressure and/or learn to land damage once hits the mat, then wins can begin to compile for him. But, the issue, beyond inconsistency, is a culmination of poor striking development with poor in-fight decisions.
The former of bad striking is not too surprising given his youth and background as a grappler, but the latter issue of in-fight decision-making is the root cause of inconsistency. Specifically, Brundage has forgone effective fight methods early in a fight to unnecessarily change tactics, and the consequence has been defeat. If he can clean up in-fight decision-making and/or develop defensively-sound striking, then Brundage can formulate a method of success and secure a win here.
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Fighting with consistency has plagued Rodolfo Vieira as well but in entirely different ways. Whereas Brundage has not accepted the rinse-repeat method of success needed to be implemented for compiling sustained success in the octagon, Vieira has no qualms whatsoever with fighting each fight on the mat and finding his way to victory through submissions. This affinity for finishing fights with submissions comes as no surprise given he is a world-renowned BJJ practitioner who is a four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion, seven-time Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion, two-time Pan American Champion, and an ADCC Submission World Champion.
Given the danger Vieira presents on the mat, his opponents often do anything and everything to keep the fight standing. For those who have sound takedown defense, they have had success with stuffing the early threat of Vieira with him having power-driven takedowns, and once done, they have success with piecing Vieira up on the feet. For those who have sub-par defense, Vieria has had the ability to use his natural strength to get it to the mat.
I want to emphasize that the technical ability Vieira has on the mat is leaps and bounds ahead of his technical ability to secure takedowns, and this lack of technical ability plagued him in the Anthony Hernandez fight, as Vieira gassed himself out and was actually finished by submission. This issue with consistently finding takedowns is the Achilles’ heel for him as he could win a significant number of fights if he had elite wrestling.
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What will be quite interesting for Vieira moving forward is if prioritizes fine-tuning his offensive wrestling to where he can then fight on the mat or if he will continue to develop his striking with the hopes of using the Oliveira method of success. This method at the most elementary level is throwing strikes with ill intentions knowing full well if a strike lands, the opponent will be in trouble, and if the strike doesn’t, then being off balance on a strike temps the opponent to land an easy takedown where they then can work for submission off their back. If Vieira chooses this way of fight development, the benefit is that he does have impressive power, but the pitfall is this style allows for a technician on the feet to piece him up and/or a powerful opponent to land a clean strike to win by KO. In this fight, Vieira does not have to worry about facing a technician on the feet nor elite power, so I expect him to throw haymaking blows in the attempt to find a finish and/or invite being taken to the mat.
Prediction and Betting Guide
On paper, in a fight where both men have inconsistencies in their game and each is developing their non-specific grappling skills, I would favor the fighter with better wrestling and likely better cardio, in this case, both Brundage. While that is the case, the stylistic fight for Vieira is simply tailor-made for his style, whereby he can confidently throw haymaking punches and can out-grapple – early – if need be.
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Because of this, I expect Vieira to find a finish in some capacity, and because I do not trust his cardio coupled with Brundage not having seen a second round in three fights, I am taking Vieira in round 1.
Pick: Rodolfo Vieira RD1 Finish (+135)