Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov prediction & odds | UFC Fight Night 231
Rising Brazilian prospect Caio Borralho is looking to extend his six-fight win streak this weekend in his own backyard against the always-dangerous Abus Magomedov. The middleweight sensation is riding high after a submission victory in April against the always-game Michal Oleksiejczuk but is stepping into some fierce competition in Magomedov.
Rebounding after a tough loss against the current champion, Sean Strickland, in what was only his second UFC appearance, Magomedov will be looking to prove he still has what it takes to compete in the ever-competitive 185-pound division.
It’s a dynamite match-up that’ll likely make way for a new middleweight contender, and the polarizing styles make it all the more interesting.
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Betting Odds
Likely because of his momentum and Magomedov’s lackluster performance in his most recent bout, Caio Borralho steps into this one as a significant favorite.
- Caio Borralho: -305
- Abus Magomedov: +245
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Fight Breakdown
Although both these guys are specialists in their own regards; Borralho being a technical master on the ground with Magomedov being an ever-dangerous, unorthodox striker, they’re actually fairly well-rounded. Borralho has some of the most underrated wrestle-boxing in the UFC, using a wide array of short strikes in the clinch and round kicks in order to close the distance for his takedowns, where he does most of his damage on the ground. Magomedov is no easy man to pin down, though. He has extremely quick scrambles and recovers guard at a rapid pace in order to get back in his comfort zone on his feet.
Magomedov’s only issue, as was seen in the Strickland fight, is his mostly uncontrolled pace. He throws wild punches and kicks expecting a knockout or serious damage, and loses a great deal of stamina when he whiffs them. This slows him down into the latter half of the second round, and it’s noticeable in his movements. On the other hand, Borralho seems like he’s already prepared for a five-round fight, comfortably taking his opponents to the later rounds or drowning them with pressure to pull a slick submission. If Magomedov wants to leave this fight with a win, he better have worked on his pace and conditioning, or plan on an early knockout, otherwise, he has a long fifteen minutes ahead of him.
On the other hand, Borralho has a lot of weapons to deal with on the feet. Magomedov has some of the quickest kicks in the division, piecing his opponent’s legs up in order to set up powerful, unorthodox kicks to the head and body. He’s a master at controlling distance, which could give Borralho’s grapple-box approach some issues, especially in the early rounds when he’s quick and active. If Borralho wants to win, he needs to stay disciplined, especially in the early rounds, and work to walk Magomedov down and push him against the fence, otherwise, he’ll likely get pieced up from the center of the octagon.
Prediction and Betting Guide
Overall, it’s kind of hard to pick against Borralho in this one. He’s much more well-rounded and holds up a lot better in the latter rounds. If Magomedov wants to win, he needs to land early, and Borralho just seems too disciplined and dangerous to get caught like that. The difficult part to predict is the method. If you’re going with Magomedov, I don’t see it ending anywhere past the second round, and it’d have to be a knockout, but I think Borralho’s chin will hold up through the fight. I’m thinking Borralho via decision at +215, but he could still pull the submission at +165. Nevertheless, it’s an exciting fight, and anything could realistically happen given the talent both men have.
Picks: Borralho to win (-305) or Borralho via decision (+215)
Lines to Watch: Borralho via submission (+165), Magomedov via KO/TKO/DQ (+500)
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