Chris Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili prediction | UFC Fight Night 230
Chris Gutierrez is one of the most dynamic and fluid strikers in the UFC today. This unique style and 8-fight unbeaten streak was only just recently broken by a competitive decision loss to Pedro Munoz in April.
Looking to get back into the win column, the Texan deemed “El Guapo” will have to get past “The Mongolian Knight” Alateng Heili.
The Chinese fighter out of Inner Mongolia is a wrestler by trade who transitioned to MMA and subsequently entered the UFC in 2019. He has since earned himself a record of 4-1-1, with notable wins over Danaa Batgerel and Kevin Croom.
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Betting Odds
Chris Gutierrez will be a huge favorite at -435.
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Fight Breakdown
Chris Guttierez is one of the most educated strikers in the sport today. He is accurate and fluid, floating in and out with ease and incredible distance management. He will look to switch stance and tag his opponents with long jabs without overextending, in order to draw out his opponent’s attack so as to pull counter with his left jab or check left hook.
Although Gutierrez has great boxing, it’s really his kicking game that has caused him to stand out. He is very good at managing range in a way to land his spinning hook kicks and back kicks, chopping at the calf in between to stagger and freeze his opponents in place. It is a common notion for his opponents that being the forward pressuring fighter, does render Gutierrez’s style more difficult to pull off however, it always runs the risks of allowing Gutierrez to give space and cut that space off with a devastating knee down the middle or spinning back fist.
Alatengheili is also a very effective striker, although a more basic one. He maintains a deep stance, which keeps him balanced and allows him to drive his punches from the floor up, but doesn’t allow for the same mobility as Gutierrez. Alatengheili sticks to basic boxing combinations done with precision, he likes his slip left, right cross counter, and once he gets his timing down with it, chains on the left hook afterwards. He usually has a build-on approach to his combinations, getting his read with his rear counter and then building his attack from there, playing with different setups and follow ups from the same strike. Watch for the right cross and right overhand early, turned into right hand to left hook and later on mixing in his lead jab and hook to the body to set up the overhand right.
However, because he does favor the lunging right hand in a variety of ways, it can be predictable at times. In his most recent fight, Chad Anheliger was tagged by the right hand consistently, but at one point managed to slip off the cage to his left and counter the right hand with a flush left hook. Gutierrez is a much more proficient striker than anyone that Alatengheili has thus fought, so reading the consistencies in his striking game is probable.
Alatengheili actually comes from a wrestling base, which one would maybe not consider if only seeing him fight in the UFC. It would seem he has fallen in love with knocking his opponents out as even in matchups where it would be textbook knowledge to imply a wrestling gamer plan, he tends to elect to strike. This leads me to believe he will not be chasing a takedown against Gutierrez, although it would be the best course of action. Alatengheili has a tremendous single leg attack, which he finishes both by turning the corner and elevating before landing in side control, and elevates on the center line into a trip out.
Prediction
Alatengheili can make this a far more competitive fight by making the use of his wrestling pedigree. However, based on his past decision making it’s unlikely he will try to enforce this to a large extent. He will look for quick takedowns late in close fights, or in fights he is edging in order to solidify a victory, but this usually happens late after he has already found success striking.
Gutierrez has solid guard retention, which will make it difficult fort Alatengheili to control him on the mat, but Gutierrez also doesn’t typically show much offence off of his back. I believe we will see mostly striking early in the fight with Gutierrez winning fairly confidently, forcing Alatengheili to potentially shoot when it’s a bit too late to come back on the scorecards. Gutierrez is not a massive value at -435 so treat him as a parlay boost.
Pick: Chris Gutierrez to win (-435) as parlay booster
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